Grizzlies Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch 2020: Southwest Division

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southwest Division:

Derrick Favors, Pelicans, 28, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $37.6MM deal in 2018
A power forward by trade, Favors has emerged as the Pelicans’ starting center. Over a nine-game span prior to Friday’s action, Favors posted six double-doubles while averaging 11.2 PPG and 14.4 RPG. With an expiring $17.65MM contract, Favors is a candidate to be dealt before February’s deadline. Favors left Friday’s game with a hamstring injury but as long as it’s not serious, he could be an intriguing rental. Several teams were already monitoring Favors prior to his recent productive run. Jaxson Hayes is the future center for the Pelicans and Favors doesn’t stretch defenses but his steady contributions will draw some attention in a weak free agent market.

Isaiah Hartenstein, Rockets, 21, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.92MM deal in 2018
Hartenstein doesn’t get many opportunities but he puts up strong numbers when the Rockets are shorthanded in the frontcourt. In a three-game stretch in late December, Hartenstein averaged 14.7 PPG on 73% percent shooting and 11.3 RPG. In six G League outings this season, he has posted 21.3 PPG, 14.5 RPG and 4.7 APG in 33.3 MPG. The Rockets have a June 29 deadline to guarantee Hartenstein’s $1.66MM salary. It’s hard to see the Rockets letting the 21-year-old 7-footer walk away at that price.

Josh Jackson, Grizzlies, 22, SF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $18.2MM deal in 2017
Following two troubled seasons with the Suns, Jackson was dealt to the Grizzlies during the offseason. Memphis decided to have Jackson work on improving his game and reputation at the G League level. The fourth overall pick of the 2017 draft has toiled there during the first three months of the season. Jackson was suspended two games for violating team rules last month, then went into an offensive funk until a 35-point outburst against the Iowa Wolves Monday. There’s no indication the Grizzlies have any interest in re-signing the unrestricted free agent this summer.

Ryan Broekhoff, Mavericks, 29, SG (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $2.25MM deal in 2018
Broekhoff suffered a fractured left fibula late last month and is out indefinitely. Tough break — literally — for the Australian swingman, who wasn’t playing much anyway. He has appeared in 10 games this season, averaging 3.7 PPG in 7.7 MPG, after playing 42 games with Dallas last season in his first NBA campaign. Dallas would have to extend a $1.9MM qualifying offer to him in June to make him a restricted free agent. It seems likely that Broekhoff will return overseas next season to resume his career.

Jakob Poeltl, Spurs, 24, C (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $12.2MM deal in 2016
The Raptors’ 2016 lottery pick hasn’t really developed with a change of scenery over the past two seasons. Though Poeltl has made modest increases in his rebounding, assist and shot-blocking averages this season, his playing time remains limited to 15-20 minutes per game. The 7-footer doesn’t provide much offensively and has yet to develop a 3-point shot. He’s also a poor free throw shooter. San Antonio would have to extend a $5.1MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. That’s a reasonable price for a second-unit player but San Antonio may let him walk and seek an upgrade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

And-Ones: Edwards, Cap Room, Sellers, Betting

With LaMelo Ball and R.J. Hampton battling injuries this winter and James Wiseman leaving Memphis to begin preparing for the 2020 draft, Georgia guard Anthony Edwards is one of the few candidates for the No. 1 pick that NBA evaluators can actually watch these days. And, as Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated relays, scouts have been impressed so far by what they’ve seen from the freshman.

“[Edwards] is a pro, everything about him. Athleticism. Skill. The ability to score,” one NBA scout told Spears. “He can defend. He is one of those guys that will be better on the next level because he will be playing with better teammates. When he walks onto the floor, you have the feeling that you’re watching a pro. And then the game starts and he shows you he is one with his versatility and skill.”

While he currently ranks behind Ball on ESPN’s big board, Edwards is considered a candidate to be the first player drafted this spring. So far, there’s no consensus among experts on which prospect will be the top pick, and Edwards tells Spears that his goal is to become that player.

“That’s my dream, to be the No. 1 pick,” Edwards said. “So, all I’m doing is just working hard. And whoever gets the pick, they will do whatever they want to do with. I just pray it would be me.”

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • The Hawks, Grizzlies, Cavaliers, Hornets, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Suns, and Pelicans are the teams expected to have cap room available during the 2020 offseason. Danny Leroux of The Athletic examines how much spending power those teams will have and what factors could affect their flexibility.
  • In his in-depth preview of the 2020 trade deadline, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) breaks down the most and least valuable contracts for each team and speculates on the topics currently under discussion in each front office.
  • Dan Devine of The Ringer identifies 11 teams that may be sellers at next month’s trade deadline, including obvious candidates like the Knicks and Cavaliers, as well as teams that will be more reluctant to sell, such as the Kings and Timberwolves.
  • Wayne Parry of The Associated Press explores how professional sports leagues – including the NBA – are cashing in on legalized sports betting by selling data to bookmakers.

Josh Jackson Impressing For Memphis Hustle

  • The Undefeated’s Marc J. Spears spoke with Grizzlies forward Josh Jackson, currently logging time with Memphis’ G League affiliate, the Memphis Hustle. “The last time I had fun like this was maybe AAU,” Jackson, taken No. 4 in the 2017 draft by the Suns, told Spears. “Don’t feel bad for me. It’s an opportunity. I am just thankful I get to play basketball.” Jackson is averaging 20.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 4.3 APG and 2.6 made triples through 18 Hustle bouts.

Grizzlies Exec On Iguodala: "We Will Trade Him, Period"

As we’ve heard all season long, the Grizzlies remain confident that they can trade Andre Iguodala and won’t need to buy him out of his contract, writes Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report.

“We will trade him, period,” A Grizzlies executive told Pincus. “We’ve gone far enough into the structure of deals with more than one team to say that [confidently].”

Marc Stein of The New York Times reported last month that Dallas isn’t expected to pursue Iguodala, but multiple executives still view the Mavericks as the best potential trade partner for Memphis, according to Pincus. One Western Conference executive speculated that the leak to Stein was “posturing,” suggesting that the Mavs and Grizzlies may be haggling over the Warriors’ 2020 second-rounder that Dallas holds.

Tyus Jones More Comfortable With Grizzlies

  • After a slow start, Tyus Jones is looking like the player the Grizzlies expected when they gave him a three-year, $26MM contract this summer, notes David Cobb of The Memphis Commercial Appeal. Jones had eight points and seven assists off the bench yesterday in Denver, continuing a string of strong December performances.

More Back-To-Backs Expected For Morant, Clarke

Dillon Brooks' Value As A 2020 Restricted Free Agent

  • In his latest mailbag column, The Daily Memphian’s Chris Herrington touches on Dillon Brooks‘ value as a 2020 restricted free agent. Brooks, the 45th pick in the 2017 draft, has been solid in his third NBA season thus far. He has shown his mettle as a long-range shooter for the Grizzlies, connecting on 37.1% of his 4.9 three-point attempts a game this year. He can also defend at a position of need — albeit while getting into foul trouble. Herrington considers Brooks’ best fit on a playoff team to be as a bench scorer. Herrington hopes that Memphis waits out the market for Brooks, and exercises caution if offers from other teams venture significantly beyond the mid-level exception ($9.8MM annually).

Mavs Not Expected To Pursue Andre Iguodala

While the Mavericks appear to have the pieces necessary to make an attractive trade offer for Andre Iguodala, Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) has been told that Dallas has “zero interest” in the veteran forward.

Marc Stein of The New York Times (Twitter links) reiterates that point, citing league sources who say that the Mavericks like Iguodala and had interest in him during the offseason, but aren’t actively pursuing a trade for the 35-year-old and don’t intend to.

As Townsend explains, Dallas’ management group “loves” the club’s current chemistry. Although Iguodala wouldn’t necessarily negatively impact that chemistry, adding a veteran like him would to disrupt the current rotation, Townsend notes. Stein, meanwhile, suggests that the Mavs are being “measured” as they consider possible trade targets, even after emerging as potential contenders.

The Grizzlies have held onto Iguodala since acquiring from Golden State in July, despite the fact that he hasn’t played a single minute for the team this season. Memphis reportedly hasn’t budged from its asking price of a first-round pick, while contenders like the Lakers, Clippers, and Rockets continue to hold out hope that Iguodala will be bought out, per Stein (Twitter link).

Houston and the L.A. clubs aren’t particularly well positioned to acquire Iguodala in a trade, but Dallas might be. A package of Courtney Lee‘s expiring contract and the Warriors’ 2020 second-round pick would likely appeal to the Grizzlies.

It’s possible Dallas is projecting a lack of interest in Iguodala to gain leverage and lower Memphis’ asking price, but for now it seems safe to assume that the Mavs aren’t the favorites for the former Finals MVP.

Grizzlies Still Seeking First-Rounder For Iguodala?

The Grizzlies, who have no plans to buy out Andre Iguodala, also haven’t adjusted their asking price on the trade market for the veteran forward, according to Sean Deveney of Heavy.com. Having acquired a first-round pick along with Iguodala in July, the Grizzlies are hoping to secure a second first-round pick when they flip the 35-year-old.

“They haven’t budged,” a league executive told Deveney. “Maybe they will as the date gets closer, but they’ve made clear, they’re not interested in a buyout with Andre and they’re looking for a first-rounder. Teams have been trying. They haven’t let go of that. But that tells you they know they’ll be able to get something and won’t have to buy him out.”

Acquiring a first-round pick for Iguodala’s $17MM expiring contract seems ambitious unless the Grizzlies are willing to take on some unwanted multiyear money, but there’s no harm in trying. The former Finals MVP is currently away from the team, and any potential trade partner with interest would be eyeing him for a potential playoff run, so Memphis can afford to be patient.

While I’d be surprised if the Grizzlies get a first-rounder for Iguodala, it seems as if the club should be able to land a second-rounder or two. The Mavericks, who control one of 2020’s most valuable second-round picks and could match Iguodala’s salary using Courtney Lee‘s expiring contract, still look to me like the best fit, but Deveney identifies the Bucks, Nuggets, and Jazz as a few other possible suitors.

I explained earlier today why several contending teams – including the Lakers – will have a tough time putting together a trade package for a player like Iguodala.

Why Some Contenders’ Trade Options Will Be Limited

When David Aldridge of The Athletic polled NBA executives in November on Andre Iguodala‘s eventual landing spot, the responses were nearly unanimous. Nearly every exec who spoke to Aldridge predicted that Iguodala would ultimately end up with the Lakers.

However, with the Grizzlies standing firm on their stance that they intend to trade Iguodala rather than buy him out, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which those execs will be proven right.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the NBA’s trade rules, in order to take back Iguodala’s $17,185,185 salary, the Lakers would have to send out $12,185,185 in outgoing salary. The Lakers have three players earning more than that amount on their own: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Danny Green. It seems safe to assume none of those players will be included in a deal for Iguodala.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope‘s $8.09MM cap charge could be a good starting point in putting together a package for Iguodala, but Caldwell-Pope is one of three Lakers who has a de facto no-trade clause after re-signing with the team this past offseason — JaVale McGee and Rajon Rondo are the others. There’s probably no good reason for any of those players to approve a trade from the 24-4 Lakers to the 10-18 Grizzlies.

So what’s left? Even if the Lakers were to package all their next-biggest contracts, including Avery Bradley ($4.77MM), DeMarcus Cousins ($3.5MM), and Quinn Cook ($3MM), they’d have to include at least four players just to reach the threshold to take back Iguodala’s salary. That would mean either asking the Grizzlies to waive three players or getting other teams involved, neither of which presents a particularly realistic path to a deal.

The Lakers are perhaps the most striking example of how a lack of expendable contracts in the mid-level range ($8-12MM) may limit teams’ trade options this winter. But they’re hardly the only example.

Consider the Celtics. They only have three players earning between $5MM and $32.7MM in 2019/20. Those three players are Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart, and I wouldn’t expect the team to seriously consider moving any of them. For the C’s, acquiring a player in the $15-20MM range would mean packaging together at least three players earning $5MM or less, and three-for-one or four-for-one deals aren’t easy to pull off during the season.

The Sixers are in this group too. They have just two players with ’19/20 cap hits between $4.77MM and $27.5MM — Josh Richardson ($10.12MM) and Ben Simmons ($8.11MM). Trading Simmons probably isn’t a consideration anyway, but doing so would be virtually impossible due to the poison pill provision attached to his newly-signed extension. If Philadelphia wants to put together a trade package without including Richardson, it would likely mean starting with Mike Scott ($4.77MM) and Zhaire Smith ($3.06MM), which will limit the team’s ability to take on a bigger contract.

The Rockets had this quandary in mind when they signed Nene to an incentive-packed contract that bumped his cap hit to $10MM, despite a guarantee of just $2.56MM. The team essentially tried to create an expendable mid-level trade chip out of thin air, but the NBA thwarted the plan, ruling that Nene would only count for $2.56MM for matching purposes. As a result, Houston’s only contracts worth more than $3.54MM belong to the team’s five most important players, and one of them (Eric Gordon at $14.06MM) can’t be traded at all this season because he recently signed an extension.

The Clippers have one potentially expendable mid-level deal, but Maurice Harkless ($11.01MM) has been a pretty effective rotation player for the team this season, so L.A. would only move him for a clear upgrade. The Jazz and Raptors each have one contract in the mid-level range that could be used to build a trade package, but Dante Exum ($9.6MM) and Norman Powell ($10.12MM) both have multiple years left on their deals, complicating their value.

For certain trade targets, this dearth of expendable mid-level contracts among contenders won’t matter — there’s a viable path to match the salary of a player like Jae Crowder ($7.82MM) or even Robert Covington ($11.3MM) with some of those smaller deals.

Still, the salary-matching factor is one that shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to pricier trade candidates like Iguodala or Danilo Gallinari ($22.62MM). Every team except the Hawks is currently over the cap, so every team with title aspirations is subject to those salary-matching rules, which are even more restrictive on taxpaying teams.

At this point, contenders with movable contracts in the $10-15MM range, such as the Mavericks (Courtney Lee, $12.76MM), Heat (multiple players), and Nuggets (multiple players) appear better positioned to make certain deals to improve their rosters at the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.