A year ago, the Mavericks decided not to bring back Parsons on a max deal, opting instead for Harrison Barnes. That decision raised some eyebrows at the time, but Dallas knew better than anyone that Parsons’ injury history was a red flag, as the Grizzlies saw first-hand during his first season in Memphis.
Parsons appeared in just 34 games for the Grizzlies in 2016/17, and even when he was able to get on the court, he struggled badly, shooting just 33.8% from the field and 26.9% on three-pointers. Both marks were career worsts by far.
Parsons was a career 38.0% three-point shooter before arriving in Memphis, and if he can regain his old form, he’d be an ideal threat on the wing to help take the scoring load off Conley and Gasol. But if Parsons continues to battle injuries, his contract – which is guaranteed for $72MM+ over the next three years – will be an albatross on Memphis’ cap, limiting the team’s flexibility to add other pieces.
2. Is this the end of an era for Zach Randolph and/or Tony Allen?
Randolph and Allen didn’t start their respective NBA careers in Memphis, but it’s hard to imagine them playing anywhere else at this point. Randolph was traded to the Grizzlies way back in 2009, and Allen signed with the club as a free agent a year later. The duo has helped epitomize the “Grit ‘n’ Grind” era in Memphis, but they’ll be free agents this summer, and there’s no guarantee they’ll both be back.
For his part, Allen has expressed a strong desire to remain with the Grizzlies, and has indicated he’s not looking to “break the bank” in free agency. The veteran guard has never earned more than about $5.5MM in a season, and deserves a raise, but if he’s willing to take a hometown discount to remain in Memphis, it would help the team re-sign Randolph or add another free agent.
Randolph’s situation is a little more complicated, in part because the power forward who replaced him in the starting lineup this season is also a free agent, which brings us to our next question…
3. Will the Grizzlies re-sign JaMychal Green?
The Grizzlies inserted Green into their starting lineup on a full-time basis in 2016/17, figuring that his skill-set made him a better fit in the frontcourt with Gasol. That bet paid off, as Green enjoyed a modest breakout year, averaging 8.9 PPG and 7.1 RPG with a shooting line of .500/.379/.802.
Those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, but Green was a reliable and consistent performer in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt, providing solid defense, rebounding, and the ability to hit the occasional outside shot. He’ll turn 27 next month, so unlike Randolph, he’s still very much in his prime, and after earning the minimum salary in 2016/17, he should be in line for a substantial raise as he enters restricted free agency.
The Grizzlies have Green’s Bird rights, meaning they can go over the cap to re-sign him, and they also hold the right of first refusal, allowing them to match another team’s offer sheet. Still, if the Grizzlies commit to a raise for Allen and want to use their mid-level exception to bring in another player, the club may be forced to choose between Green and Randolph unless ownership is willing to approach the tax line.
4. Are Jarell Martin and/or Wade Baldwin ready for larger roles?
If the Grizzlies aren’t able to retain both Randolph and Green, they’ll need to fill a hole in their frontcourt rotation. The most logical in-house candidate for an increased role would be Martin, a 2015 first-round pick who turns 23 later this month. The LSU product looked solid in limited minutes during his rookie season, but failed to take a step forward in his second year, as his field goal percentage dipped from .466 to .384. If Memphis isn’t confident in Martin’s ability to provide productive minutes, that puts more pressure on the team to bring back its two free agent power forwards or to seek outside help.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have had trouble finding a backup for Conley in recent years, prompting them to use 2016’s 17th overall pick on Baldwin. The rookie guard played more minutes in the D-League than he did in the NBA in his first year, and even his D-League stats weren’t all that impressive — he averaged 12.9 PPG and 5.3 APG with a .433/.311/.748 shooting line in 33 games. If Baldwin isn’t ready to assume backup duties behind Conley, the team may end up targeting a veteran point guard using its MLE.
5. Will Vince Carter finish his career in Memphis?
With Randolph, Allen, and Green all eligible for free agency this offseason, Carter probably won’t be the top priority for the Grizzlies, but the 18-year veteran continues to be a key part of Memphis’ rotation. He averaged 24.6 minutes per game for the club in 2016/17, making 1.5 threes per game (37.8%). He also wants to play for two more seasons.
Presumably, the Grizzlies would love to have Carter back if he’s willing to sign for the minimum. And if a couple of Memphis’ other free agents leave, the team would have the ability to offer him more than the minimum. However, if another team makes a strong pitch to Carter when free agency opens on July 1, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him head elsewhere, creating another hole to fill in the Grizzlies’ rotation.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Grizzlies financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- Mike Conley ($28,530,608)
- Chandler Parsons ($23,112,004)
- Marc Gasol ($22,642,350)
- Brandan Wright ($5,955,760)
- Troy Daniels ($3,408,520)
- James Ennis ($3,028,410)
- Wade Baldwin ($1,874,400)
- Jarell Martin ($1,471,382)
- Deyonta Davis ($1,312,611)
- Andrew Harrison ($1,312,611)
- Jamaal Franklin ($163,296) — Waived via stretch provision
- Total: $92,811,952
Player Options
Team Options
Non-Guaranteed Salary
Restricted Free Agents
- JaMychal Green ($2,820,497 qualifying offer / $2,820,497 cap hold)
- Total: $2,820,497
Cap Holds
- Zach Randolph ($15,542,168)
- Tony Allen ($10,460,674)
- Vince Carter ($8,101,708)
- Wayne Selden ($1,312,611) — If team option is declined
- Total: $35,417,161
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: $6,556,818
- With no cap hold for a first-round draft pick to worry about, the Grizzlies would have $94,443,182 on their books if they only kept their players on guaranteed salaries, plus a pair of empty roster cap charges. In that scenario though, their projected cap room would be less than the mid-level exception, and it would mean renouncing free agents like Green, Randolph, Allen, and Carter. As such, Memphis is far more likely to stay over the cap and make an effort to re-sign at least a couple of those players.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
