- As Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald notes, several of the Heat‘s newly-signed contracts include up-front payments. For instance, Kyle Lowry can get $21.25MM of his $26.98MM salary for 2021/22 by opening night, rather than receiving it in equal installments all season. Jimmy Butler‘s extension also features a substantial advance payment, while Duncan Robinson and P.J. Tucker are entitled to more modest ones.
- Speaking of Robinson, the final year of his new five-year contract with the Heat isn’t just an early termination option — it’s also only partially guaranteed. That means even if he opts into his fifth year, the Heat could save $10MM of his $19.888MM salary by waiving him. However, Robinson’s fifth-year salary would become fully guaranteed if Miami wins a title by that point and he meets certain minutes and games-played thresholds.
The 2021/22 NBA regular season will get underway in less than a month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to resume an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.
With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
In 2020/21, our voters went 17-13 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’21/22?
As a reminder, the NBA played a 72-game schedule in 2020/21, so a team that won 41 games last year finished with a 41-31 record. This year, a club that wins 41 games would be a .500 team (41-41). For added clarity, we’ve noted the record that each team would have to achieve to finish “over” its projected win total.
We’ll turn today to the Southeast division…
Miami Heat
- 2020/21 record: 40-32
- Over/under for 2021/22: 48.5 wins (49-33)
- Major offseason moves:
Atlanta Hawks
- 2020/21 record: 41-31
- Over/under for 2021/22: 47.5 wins (48-34)
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Delon Wright, Gorgui Dieng, Jalen Johnson
- Lost: Tony Snell, Kris Dunn, Bruno Fernando, Brandon Goodwin
Charlotte Hornets
- 2020/21 record: 33-39
- Over/under for 2021/22: 38.5 wins (39-43)
- Major offseason moves:
Washington Wizards
- 2020/21 record: 34-38
- Over/under for 2021/22: 34.5 wins (35-47)
- Major offseason moves:
Orlando Magic
- 2020/21 record: 21-51
- Over/under for 2021/22: 22.5 wins (23-59)
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Robin Lopez, E’Twaun Moore
- Lost: Otto Porter, James Ennis, Dwayne Bacon, Chasson Randle
Previous voting results:
- Brooklyn Nets (55.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (51.5 wins): Under (70.0%)
- Boston Celtics (46.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
- New York Knicks (42.5 wins): Over (65.1%)
- Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins): Under (50.6%)
- Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
- Indiana Pacers (42.5 wins): Under (58.2%)
- Chicago Bulls (42.5 wins): Over (68.3%)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (26.5 wins): Under (50.5%)
- Detroit Pistons (25.5 wins): Under (52.6%)
- Utah Jazz (52.5 wins): Over (61.7%)
- Denver Nuggets (48.5 wins): Over (69.3%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (44.5 wins): Over (53.0%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (34.5 wins): Under (57.1%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5 wins): Under (65.0%)
- Los Angeles Lakers (52.5 wins): Over (58.2%)
- Phoenix Suns (51.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
- Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
- Los Angeles Clippers (43.5 wins): Over (51.2%)
- Sacramento Kings (36.5 wins): Under (66.0%)
The top-heavy Heat could benefit from their two-way players proving their NBA mettle sooner rather than later. Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel wonders if either of their two two-way players, guards Caleb Martin or Marcus Garrett, could find their way onto Miami’s 15-man roster by the end of the year.
Because of the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, two-way player rules no longer have restrictions on how frequently two-way players can practice or travel with their NBA clubs. Winderman thinks Garrett will see more run with the Heat’s G League affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce, but that Martin could carve out a fringe rotation role at the next level.
The 6’5″ Martin played his first two years with the Hornets, and holds career averages of 5.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG and 1.3 APG, with shooting splits of .391/.315/.682.
There’s more out of the East:
- Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra could be a finalist to succeed Team USA head coach Gregg Popovich in future international competitions, opines Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Spoelstra coached the Select Team, comprised of young up-and-coming American players, who faced off against Team USA ahead of their gold medal run this summer.
- The Bucks could look to more carefully manage the minutes of Olympic champions Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, coming off the club’s championship run, writes Eric Nehm of The Athletic in an extensive mailbag. Nehm anticipates that second-year forwards Jordan Nwora and Mamadi Diakite, as well as reserve point guard George Hill, will benefit the most from the resting of Holiday and Middleton.
- Retiring former Bulls All-Star center Joakim Noah will be celebrated by Chicago during an October 28 Bulls-Knicks contest. The Knicks are led by Noah’s former Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau, and feature his former Chicago teammates Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. The Bulls are currently led by Noah’s old college coach, Billy Donovan, with whom Noah won two straight NCAA titles with the University of Florida in 2006 and 2007. Noah was a two-time All-Star and the 2014 Defensive Player of the Year while with the Bulls.
New Heat two-way forward Caleb Martin cited the team’s reputation, culture, and successful development history as key reasons why he joined the franchise, as Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald details. Martin, who spent the last two seasons with the Hornets, will join undrafted guard Marcus Garrett as Miami’s two-way players entering the season.
“The culture and the reputation were the big things that caught my eye,” Martin explained. “Obviously, the coaching staff and just everybody that’s involved over here. One of the things they said was they’re big on development. They’re going to work with me and do the best they can to make me the best player I can be. They think this is a great spot for me in terms of my playing style and I agree with that.”
Miami has a well-documented history of developing players — Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson being two of the most recent examples — something that Martin simply couldn’t ignore as a free agent.
“You hear a lot of great things about the organization in Miami,” he said. “It’s clear that they bring in winning players and a winning culture, and they do a great job of molding guys and developing guys through their program. Obviously, those were all key points for me when it’s time to choose somewhere to go.”
Here are some other notes from the Eastern Conference today:
- Brian Lewis of the New York Post examines how Kevin Durant helped recruit veteran point guard Patty Mills to the Nets in free agency. Mills is expected to provide ball-handling and shooting behind the likes of Kyrie Irving and James Harden for Brooklyn this season.
- Eric Nehm of The Athletic explores a number of Bucks-related topics in his mailbag, including how the team could address any lack of size up front, Alex Antetokounmpo‘s situation and more. Milwaukee is coming off its first championship season since 1971.
- The Heat will have several options to try at starting power forward this season, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel examines in his mailbag. Miami signed P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to deals in free agency, both of whom are expected to contend for minutes. The team also has 23-year-old center Omer Yurtseven, who could bump Bam Adebayo to power forward if and when they share the floor.
Kasib Powell has been named the Heat’s new G League head coach, according to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald.
Powell spent two seasons with Sioux Falls as a player and earned the 2007/08 G League MVP award. Eric Glass, who coached the Skyforce during the 2019/20 season, has rejoined the Heat’s staff.
The Heat‘s addition of Kyle Lowry represented one of the biggest splashes of the NBA offseason, and the team’s five-year commitment to Duncan Robinson and signing of P.J. Tucker were also major moves. Those transactions helped earn Miami a grade of A-minus from Zach Harper of The Athletic for the team’s offseason work.
Although Harper believes the Heat got better this summer, he suggests the club still has a couple holes on its roster, arguing that another lead guard to back up Lowry and another reliable outside shooter would be worthwhile additions. Unfortunately, Miami already has 14 players on guaranteed contracts and doesn’t have room to add a 15th right now without going into the tax. However, if Victor Oladipo gets healthy in the second half, he could provide much of what the Heat are missing.
- In past seasons, the Heat have made their two-way contract slots available in an open competition, but they decided to fill them early this year by signing Marcus Garrett and Caleb Martin. As Barry Jackson and Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald write, those two-way players will help provide wing depth while Oladipo recovers.
1:53pm: The Heat have officially signed Martin, the team announced in a press release.
12:48pm: Free agent forward Caleb Martin is signing a two-way contract with the Heat, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium.
Martin is known as a defense-oriented hustle player and holds career averages of 5.3 points and 2.5 rebounds in 16 MPG over two seasons with the Hornets.
Charlotte waived Martin last month before his salary for the 2021/22 season could become guaranteed. Charania notes that Caleb will now be competing against his twin brother Cody Martin in the same division — Cody remains a member of the Hornets.
Both of the Heat’s two-way contracts are now filled, after the team previously signed former Kansas guard Marcus Garrett. Once Martin’s deal is official, Miami will have a full 20-man preseason roster.
Now that the Heat have significantly reshaped their roster in the offseason, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel examines how willing Miami is to add a 15th player. Though Winderman allows that there are still players in free agency whose additions could improve the on-court product, he notes luxury tax worries could preclude the Heat from adding someone just yet. Winderman adds that a future trade could be the club’s route to making further roster tweaks changes instead.
The Heat’s most significant offseason change was undoubtedly the epic sign-and-trade agreement with 35-year-old veteran point guard Kyle Lowry. Miami also added versatile forward P.J. Tucker, fresh off a title run with the Bucks, and big man Markieff Morris, in addition to re-signing sharpshooter Duncan Robinson, reserve centers Dewayne Dedmon and Omer Yurtseven (though Yurtseven did not play a game with the Heat, he was on the roster at the end of the 2020/21 season), and guards Victor Oladipo, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. Additionally, Miami inked All-NBA swingman Jimmy Butler to a lucrative maximum contract extension.
There’s more out of the East:
- 2021 Hall of Fame inductee Chris Bosh could very well have wound up with the Bulls in 2010 free agency. Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel explores the Heat‘s backup plans had the club been unable to secure Bosh’s services. Winderman reveals that, at one point during the 2010 free agent hunt, Bosh relayed to an NBA executive that he would be joining Chicago. Had that transpired, Miami would have pivoted to adding some of the other All-Stars available that summer. “If, in fact, C.B. would have gone somewhere else, we had been recruiting Amar’e [Stoudemire] and we had recruited Joe Johnson,” Heat team president Pat Riley said of his next contingency moves. “It could have worked with Dwyane [Wade] and with LeBron [James], that that team would have been successful. But I don’t know if it would have been as successful as it was with Chris, because Chris was the ultimate complement.”
- There is currently no end in sight for the Sixers‘ standoff with All-Star Ben Simmons. During a podcast conversation with Darren Wolfson of SKOR North, Brian Windhorst of ESPN indicated that he expects Simmons to remain away from the team through at least the start of the forthcoming 2021/22 NBA season.
- Newly-added Nets coaching consultant Steve Clifford recently explained his anticipated role with the club, per Ernie Clark of the Bangor Daily News. “I’m here [in Brooklyn] a lot this month and through training camp, and I’ll be more of a resource,” Clifford said. “I’ll be watching a lot of film but most of the time I’ll still be living in Orlando. I’ll visit with the team once or twice a month and just take direction from [head coach] Steve Nash, whatever he wants me to do.” Clifford was previously a head coach with the Magic and Hornets across the past eight NBA seasons.
- Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel examines how bulking up could be beneficial for Heat guard Tyler Herro. The third-year Kentucky product has prioritized getting stronger during the offseason, something that could certainly help him defensively. On the offensive end, Herro has averaged 14.3 points and 2.8 assists in 109 regular-season games to this point, playing 28.8 minutes per contest.
The Heat have added forward Micah Potter and guards Javonte Smart and Dru Smith to their training camp roster, according to a team press release.
Potter appeared in six Summer League games with Miami and averaged 7.3 PPG and 3.5 RPG. He went undrafted out of Wisconsin.
Smart averaged 5.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 2.2 APG with Miami’s summer league squad. Smart played three seasons at LSU, becoming just the seventh player in school history to record at least 1,200 points, 300 assists and 111 steals.
Smith, who attended Missouri, also appeared in six Summer League games with the Heat and averaged 8.0 PPG, 2.5 APG and 1.17 SPG.
All three were signed to Exhibit 10 deals, bringing Miami’s camp roster to 19, one below the limit, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets.
Exhibit 10 contracts give NBA teams a chance to bring players to training camp and get a look at them without guaranteeing them a regular season roster spot or any real salary. All three could potentially earn a $50K bonus if they remain on the Sioux Falls Skyforce roster for at least 60 days. The Skyforce are the Heat’s G League affiliate.
The trio could also be competing for Miami’s open two-way slot.