Heat Rumors

Just about everything went right for the Heat during the summer restart in the Walt Disney World bubble last summer. Having entered the playoffs as a No. 5 seed in the East, Miami won three consecutive series as the road team, then came within two wins of a championship before falling to the Lakers.

The Heat brought back a pretty similar roster in 2020/21, aiming to finish higher in the standings and make another deep playoff run. But health issues limited the team’s ability to build much momentum during the regular season, and the departures of some key role players (such as Jae Crowder) – along with underwhelming or nonexistent contributions from new additions (including Victor Oladipo) – were major factors in Miami’s lack of postseason success.

With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo locked up for multiple seasons, the Heat have a solid All-Star duo to build around, but president of basketball operations Pat Riley may consider making significant roster changes around that duo after Miami became the only one of this year’s 16 playoff teams not to win a single game in the postseason.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan:

The Heat enter the offseason with only five players under contract: Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. That gives the team some flexibility to go in multiple directions.

A year ago, the Heat had the ability to create some cap room, but instead chose to re-sign several of their own free agents, operate over the cap, and use the mid-level exception to try to add a role player or two. It’s possible Miami will go that route again this summer.

The team options for Goran Dragic ($19MM+) and Andre Iguodala ($15MM) may be a little higher than the club would like, but both players could be re-signed even if their options are declined, and Miami would have the ability to bring back some combination of Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica too. Dewayne Dedmon could also be re-signed, though the Heat would have to use an exception to do so if he’s seeking more than the minimum, since he’ll only have Non-Bird rights.

On the other hand, if the Heat aren’t convinced that running it back again is a good play, they could let most of those free agents walk and try their luck on the open market — they’d have $20MM+ in cap room even if they retained the modest cap holds for Nunn and Robinson (they could go over the cap to re-sign those two RFAs after using their cap space).

Still, considering this year’s free agent class is somewhat underwhelming and $20MM likely wouldn’t get them a star-caliber player, I’d expect the Heat to operate over the cap and try to land an impact player on the trade market.

Exercising Dragic’s or Iguodala’s team option would give the Heat a sizeable expiring contract to use for salary-matching (they could pick up both options if needed), and while their ability to trade future first-round picks is somewhat limited, they have valuable young players – such as Herro and Achiuwa – who could be dangled as trade chips.

One potential target to keep an eye on is Kyle Lowry, who is close friends with Butler. The Heat pursued Lowry at the March trade deadline, but were reportedly unwilling to part with Herro to make a deal happen. The Heat could theoretically clear enough cap room to make him a strong offer, so if Lowry wants to team up with Butler, the Raptors’ leverage in sign-and-trade talks would decrease. That would allow Miami to negotiate more favorable trade terms and hang onto Herro, possibly for another trade down the road.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

• Jimmy Butler ($36,016,200)
• Bam Adebayo ($28,103,500) ¹
• Ryan Anderson ($5,214,583) — Waived via stretch provision.
• Tyler Herro ($4,004,280)
• Precious Achiuwa ($2,711,280)
• KZ Okpala ($1,782,621)
• Total: $77,832,464
  

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• Goran Dragic ($19,440,000): Bird rights
• Andre Iguodala ($15,000,000): Bird rights
• Omer Yurtseven ($1,517,981): Non-Bird rights ²
• Total: $35,957,981
  

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• None

Restricted Free Agents

• Kendrick Nunn ($4,736,102 qualifying offer / $4,736,102 cap hold): Bird rights
• Duncan Robinson ($4,736,102 qualifying offer / $4,736,102 cap hold): Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $9,472,204
  

Two-Way Free Agents

• Max Strus
• Gabe Vincent ³

Draft Picks

• None

Extension-Eligible Players

• Jimmy Butler (veteran)
• KZ Okpala (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Victor Oladipo ($31,500,000): Bird rights
• Trevor Ariza ($16,640,000): Early Bird rights
• Nemanja Bjelica ($13,585,000): Bird rights
• Dewayne Dedmon ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
• Udonis Haslem ($1,669,178): Bird rights
• Jordan Mickey ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights ⁴
• Dwyane Wade ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights ⁴
• Total: $68,401,712
  

Offseason Cap Outlook

As noted above, the Heat could create over $20MM+ in cap room by declining all their team options and renouncing all their free agents except Nunn and Robinson. Renouncing Nunn and Robinson would get the team up to $28MM+ in cap space.

But unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to clear that space, I don’t see Miami giving up its rights to so many useful players. The bet here is that the Heat operate as an over-the-cap team and bring back a few of their own free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

• Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 ⁵
• Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 ⁵

Footnotes

1. This is a projected value. Adebayo’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
2. Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Heat for two seasons, Vincent is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
4. The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
5. These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decided to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.