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Heat Notes: Roster Decisions, Butler, Free Agency

May 29th, 2021 at 6:49pm CST by Arthur Hill

After taking steps to maximize roster flexibility over the past 18 months, the Heat will likely need it as they try to rebuild in the wake of a first-round sweep, writes Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider account).  Jimmy Butler ($36MM), Bam Adebayo ($28.1MM), Tyler Herro ($4MM), Precious Achiuwa ($2.7MM), and KZ Okpala ($1.8MM) are the only players with guaranteed contracts for next season, but Miami can choose to operate above or below the cap depending on its other roster decisions.

The Heat have been prioritizing cap space for this summer, originally hoping to take advantage of a stellar free agent class that included Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George and LeBron James. That route has lost some luster with those players all agreeing to extensions, but Miami’s cap room will still be an asset.

The team could have about $21MM available, Marks notes, or $27MM if it doesn’t make qualifying offers to Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson, which would cut their cap holds from $4.7MM to $1.7MM each. However, Marks adds that the Heat would only consider that route if they’re assured that both players will re-sign after their cap space is exhausted. Miami would also have to decline team options on Andre Iguodala and Goran Dragic by the Aug. 1 deadline and renounce its rights to Trevor Ariza and Victor Oladipo.

The other choice is operating over the cap, which means keeping or trading some of the veterans, but it also risks cutting into potential cap space for 2022/23.

There’s more from Miami:

  • The Heat are coming up on an important decision regarding Butler, who will be eligible for a four-year extension worth $181MM, Marks adds in the same story. Butler was outstanding during the regular season, but wasn’t as effective in the playoffs, and Miami will have to determine whether he’s worth that investment with his 32nd birthday coming up in September.
  • There may not be a realistic Plan B for team president Pat Riley now that Antetokounmpo has committed to Milwaukee, contends Ira Winderman of The Sun Sentinel. The two-time MVP dismantled Miami in the playoffs and showed why he would have been such a great addition. Winderman suggests the alternative is to hope Kawhi Leonard becomes available if the Clippers lose in the first round or to possibly make another run at Kyle Lowry.
  • Butler said after today’s game that he will consider playing in the Olympics, but isn’t close to making a decision, tweets Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press. Butler won a gold medal at the 2016 Games.
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Heat Notes: Portis, Riley, Free Agents, Butler

May 28th, 2021 at 12:51pm CST by Arthur Hill

A decision not to pursue Bucks big man Bobby Portis in free agency may have led to the Heat’s playoff downfall, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. Jackson traces several missteps for Miami, which is in a 3-0 hole against Milwaukee, but the most significant might be passing on Portis, who is averaging 10.0 points and 6.0 rebounds per game in the playoff series.

A source tells Jackson that the Heat showed “mild interest” in Portis during free agency, but decided against making an offer. Portis would have considered Miami, Jackson adds, but he wound up signing with Milwaukee for $3.6MM and having a career-best season. The Heat signed Maurice Harkless for the same money, but he played just 11 games and scored 15 total points before being traded to the Kings in March.

Portis figures to be back on the market this summer as an unrestricted free agent and should get much better offers this time.

There’s more from Miami:

  • The Heat made overtures to Marcus Morris in free agency before he re-signed with the Clippers for $64MM over four years, Jackson adds. They lost two of their own free agents when they refused to come close to the three-year, $30MM deal that Jae Crowder got from the Suns or the two-year, $19MM contract that the Trail Blazers gave Derrick Jones Jr. Instead, Miami split its $9.6MM mid-level exception between Harkless and Avery Bradley, neither of whom is still with the team. The Heat also drafted Precious Achiuwa and gave a two-year, $19MM deal to Meyers Leonard, but Achuiwa dropped out of the rotation when Dewayne Dedmon was added and Leonard played just three games before a season-ending shoulder injury.
  • Team president Pat Riley has a history of making major changes after playoff embarrassments, and Ira Winderman of The Sun-Sentinel suggests that another one may be coming. Winderman notes that the current roster was built for an immediate overhaul, with team options on Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala for next season and Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Andre Iguodala, Victor Oladipo, Trevor Ariza, Nemanja Bjelica, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Udonis Haslem and Dedmon all potentially headed for free agency.
  • Jimmy Butler believes the Heat need to fall back on toughness to salvage the series, writes Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN. “(I’m most surprised by) just how fast it got out of hand,” Butler said after Thursday’s loss. “We’ve got to pick who we want to be — be physical, make things much tougher. Then you’ve got to live with the result.”
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Heat Notes: Deadline Moves, Adebayo, Dedmon

May 27th, 2021 at 10:32am CST by Luke Adams
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Could The Heat Try To Sign Lowry This Summer?

May 25th, 2021 at 7:42pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum
  • Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel wonders if the Heat will make another run at current Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry, a free agent this summer. Miami considered trading for the former six-time All-Star at this season’s deadline, but instead opted to add guard Victor Oladipo, who only appeared in four games for the club before requiring another surgery on the right quadriceps tendon he initially ruptured in 2019. Winderman notes that Heat star swingman Jimmy Butler and Lowry are close, as Lowry is the godfather to Butler’s daughter. Winderman adds that adding a high-level veteran point guard to upgrade the position could help the Heat convince Butler to ink a contract extension, which he will be eligible to do this summer.
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Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference First-Round Series

May 25th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As we discussed on Monday, the postseason is off to a fascinating start in the Western Conference, where the underdogs in all four series won Game One. The results in the Eastern Conference haven’t been quite as surprising so far.

The No. 1 Sixers and No. 2 Nets took care of the Wizards and Celtics in their respective Game Ones. Although Washington and Boston were competitive, the star power of the higher seeds may be too much for the two play-in teams — Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris racked up a combined 67 points for Philadelphia on Sunday, while Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden scored 82 of Brooklyn’s 104 points on Saturday.

Meanwhile, after upsetting the Bucks in last year’s second round, the Heat have dug themselves a 2-0 hole in this year’s first round, and Monday’s loss was especially one-sided. Milwaukee poured in 46 first-quarter points and 22 total three-pointers en route to a blowout victory.

Based on what we’ve seen so far, the most exciting Eastern Conference series in the first round should be the one featuring two teams that have spent the last few years out of the postseason. The Knicks and Hawks went down to the wire on Sunday, with Trae Young clinching an Atlanta victory by hitting a floater with less than a second left in regulation.

The Celtics, Wizards, and Heat still have plenty of time to turn things around, but oddsmakers view it as a long shot that any of these three clubs will pull off a comeback. BetOnline.ag currently lists the Nets as -2750 favorites, meaning that if you want to bet on Brooklyn to win the series, you’d have to risk $2,750 in order to win just $100. The Sixers (-1800) and Bucks (-1000) are also heavy favorites.

The Hawks’ Game 1 upset has made them the frontrunners over the Knicks, but Vegas still views that series as practically a toss-up compared to the other three — Atlanta is only a -255 favorite.

We want to know what you think. Will the East’s top three seeds hold on and win their respective series with relative ease, or will the Celtics, Wizards, and/or Heat come alive and make things interesting? Do you expect a long series between the Hawks and Knicks? Who are you picking to win that one?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Victor Oladipo Could Return In November

May 22nd, 2021 at 12:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Unrestricted free agent Victor Oladipo could return to full contact basketball as soon as November, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reports.

Oladipo underwent surgery on May 13 to repair his right quadriceps tendon. It’s the same tendon that he injured in January 2019, which ended his season in 36 games that year and limited him to 19 games last season.

This could positively impact Oladipo’s free agent status, if teams are confident the prognosis is correct. Oladipo would have certainly been one of the hottest names on the market had he not re-injured the quad.

The Heat looked at Oladipo as a key cog for another deep playoff run. Oladipo was also nagged by a right knee injury that caused him to miss several games.

Orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jonathan Glashow, who performed the latest surgery, told Wojnarowski that he was surprised Oladipo had been playing NBA basketball due to the condition of the tendon. Oladipo appeared in just four games after Houston traded him to the Heat.

Miami dealt Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk, and also agreed to a 2022 first-round draft-pick swap, for Oladipo. He turned down a two-year, $42.5MM extension offer from the Rockets in February.

“The quad wasn’t really hooked up. It was torn, and I re-attached it,” Glashow said. “I was amazed he was playing with what he had. I’m very optimistic that I could clear him in six months, by November. … I’m confident he’ll play next year.”

The Heat and Oladipo will hold discussions about his potential future in Miami, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets.

Oladipo would “love” to return and Miami hasn’t ruled out that possibility, Jackson adds. He will rehab the injury under the supervision of the Heat medical staff and Dr. Glashow, per Wojnarowski.

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Heat Notes: Adebayo, Ariza, Nunn, Robinson

May 21st, 2021 at 4:04pm CST by Luke Adams

Unsurprisingly, Heat forward/center Bam Adebayo learned on Thursday that he isn’t a finalist for either the MVP or Defensive Player of the Year award in 2021, as Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald writes.

That’s notable not because Adebayo had a realistic shot at either award, but because the value of his five-year, maximum-salary extension would have risen to $195.6MM if he had won the MVP award or $179.3MM if he had been named Defensive Player of the Year (based on a 3% salary cap increase)

The value of that five-year extension could still technically increase to $185.8MM if Adebayo is named to the All-NBA First Team. However, that’s not going to happen, so the Heat can safely pencil in $163MM as the projected five-year amount of the big man’s new contract, which begins in 2021/22.

Here’s more on the Heat:

  • Given how important Jae Crowder‘s contributions were in last year’s playoff run to the NBA Finals, Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald wonders if Trevor Ariza, acquired during the season, can play a similar role this time around. “We might be similar players but we have different roles and different attributes about ourselves,” Ariza said. “To say I can come in and do what he did would probably be disrespectful to what he brings to teams. I’m my own individual player. I would like to think what I do is good.”
  • The book is now closed on the Heat’s 2015 acquisition of Goran Dragic, as Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel observes. While surrendering two future first-round picks for Dragic was a bit of a risk, the 2018 first-rounder (Zhaire Smith) had little impact and this year’s pick will fall outside of the lottery, at No. 18. It’ll go to Houston or Oklahoma City depending on the lottery results.
  • Of the Heat’s two key RFAs-to-be, Kendrick Nunn would probably benefit more than Duncan Robinson from a strong performance in the postseason, Winderman says in a separate story for The Sun Sentinel. As Winderman explains, Robinson has already established his value over the last two seasons, while Nunn’s contributions have been less consistent, and the aftereffects of COVID-19 limited his role in last year’s postseason.
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Latest On NBA’s Lottery Standings, Draft Order

May 21st, 2021 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.

With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…

Lottery standings

Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.

A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).

The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.

Draft order

Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.

The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.

If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.

Notable traded second-round picks

On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:

The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.

The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.

Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.

The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.

The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).

Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).

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Spurs Notes: DeRozan, Mills, Gay, K. Johnson

May 20th, 2021 at 10:57am CST by Arthur Hill

After falling to the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament, the Spurs face important decisions on their veteran players. DeMar DeRozan will be one of the biggest names on the free agent market this summer, and San Antonio must decide whether to make a long-term investment in the 31-year-old guard on a team filled with young talent.

The Spurs will have an exclusive window to reach a new deal with DeRozan before free agency begins August 1, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider article). DeRozan is eligible for an extension that could pay him up to $149.1MM over the next four seasons, including a $33.3MM starting salary for 2021/22.

If DeRozan reaches the open market, Marks identifies the Hornets, Mavericks, Heat and Knicks as teams that would have cap space and interest in signing the high-scoring guard. He suggests New York, which will have $55MM available, could be tempted to reunite DeRozan with his long-time friend and former Raptors backcourt partner, Kyle Lowry.

There’s more from San Antonio:

  • Similar decisions will have to be made on Patty Mills and Rudy Gay, who are both headed to free agency, Marks adds in the same piece. Mills, who will turn 33 this summer, has spent most of his career with the Spurs and was considered a Sixth Man of the Year candidate during the first half of the season. Gay, who turns 35 in August, is a dependable three-point shooter and an effective weapon off the bench.
  • After spending much of his rookie year in the G League, Keldon Johnson made significant progress during his second NBA season, writes Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. The 21-year-old small forward started 67 games this year and appears to be part of the Spurs’ foundation heading forward. “I’ve learned a lot,” Johnson said. “I’ve grown a lot — on and off the court — from just observing (coach Gregg Popovich) and how he goes about things. … He’s taught me so many things.”
  • Popovich is encouraged by the progress his team made this season, but he cautions that becoming a title contender won’t happen right away, Orsborn tweets. “That takes time,” Popovich said. “… The more these guys get to practice together, the more they develop, hopefully the record will bend in the correct direction.”
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