- The Heat have released their preseason home schedule for 2021/22, per an announcement on the team’s website. Miami’s first home game will be against Atlanta on Monday, October 4, just 78 days away. The league’s offseason will once again be shortened this year due to the altered schedule caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- In his latest “Ask Ira” mailbag, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel examines whether Bam Adebayo should serve as a roadblock in the Damian Lillard-Heat trade speculation. Portland likely wouldn’t entertain any offer for Lillard that doesn’t include Jimmy Butler or Adebayo, and to this point, neither Lillard nor the Blazers have indicated that a separation is being considered.
Goran Dragic has been with the Heat for over six seasons, and has played some of the best basketball of his career in Miami. He was arguably the third-best player during the Heat’s run to the Finals last season before a foot injury limited him to two games against the Lakers. But the 35-year-old point guard is coming off an injury-plagued season and owed over $19MM next season.
According to Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, the Heat don’t want to trade Dragic this offseason. But if a deal for a star presents itself, the team would be willing to do so.
We have more news from around the Southeast Division:
- The Heat have traded away both their picks in this year’s draft, but that hasn’t stopped team president Pat Riley for setting the edict to the scouting department to find and secure useful players from the draft, writes Winderman. “We don’t have any picks, but I can guarantee you we’ll probably get a couple of good players out of this year’s draft, somehow,” Riley said at the end of the season. The Heat have a track record of landing productive players like Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson despite scant draft resources. They’ll try to repeat history this year.
- Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald looks at how the Olympics experience could help the Heat‘s Nigerian trio of Gabe Vincent, KZ Okpala and Precious Achiuwa. Team Nigeria has been dominant during exhibition games, but if they don’t make the medal round, it’s possible the three young players will be back in Las Vegas for Summer League, looking to build off the momentum and confidence they’ve gained from this experience.
- Wes Unseld Jr. is not just a familiar name, he’s also an experienced coach who has paid his dues, writes Fred Katz in a piece for The Athletic on the Wizards’ newest head coach. Katz writes that Unseld sold the Wizards based not only on his track record, but also on ideas for how to better utilize star Bradley Beal and last season’s lottery pick Deni Avdija.
- The Hornets are working out six prospects today, per a tweet from the team: Derrick Alston Jr., Ian Dubose, Romeao Ferguson, Ariel Hukporti, Carlik Jones, and Ruot Monyyong. The Hornets have the 56th and 57th picks in the draft, the range in which most of said prospects may be available.
There have been discussions about canceling Team USA’s exhibition game with Australia on Friday due to the U.S. team’s COVID issues, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Olgun Uluc tweet. Bradley Beal has been ruled out of the Olympics and Jerami Grant has also been placed under health and safety protocols. Australia defeated Team USA earlier in the week.
We have more on Team USA:
- Coach Gregg Popovich is crestfallen for Beal, Joe Vardon of The Athletic writes. “I’m dying for him. We all are,” Popovich said. “Since he’s a little kid this has been a dream of his, he was playing great, he was having fun, being a big part of us coming together chemistry-wise and as a family. So for him and his family, his immediate family, it’s devastating. We just feel horrible about it.”
- USA Basketball is checking into Tobias Harris‘ availability, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The Sixers forward is currently out of the country but is expected to return Saturday evening. Rockets big man Christian Wood is also being considered as Beal’s replacement.
- Heat center Bam Adebayo contributed 12 points, five assists, and five rebounds in the team’s victory over Argentina on Tuesday. Adebayo’s versatility could be a major component for the squad, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes. “The one thing about it is we don’t want everybody on the court thinking too much,” Adebayo said. “So I feel like with me and (Draymond Green), we have a responsibility to do all the little stuff — the screening, getting people open, making the extra pass. And obviously go score when there’s an opportunity.”
Sign-and-trade deals are expected to be plentiful this summer and the largest one could involve Hawks forward John Collins, writes Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report. Most contenders have limited cap flexibility, so league insiders are expecting the sign-and-trade option to be used with several of the top free agents.
Collins, a restricted free agent, could be on the move because of the perception that Atlanta doesn’t view him as a max player. Team owner Tony Ressler said last week that the team is hoping to reach a “fair agreement” with Collins, which raises questions about how high the Hawks would be willing to go to match an offer.
League sources tell Fischer there will be a “sizable market” for Collins once free agency begins next month. The Mavericks have been considered a possible destination for some time, and the Timberwolves are another team to watch, according to Fischer.
He shares some more rumors involving potential sign-and-trades:
- Dennis Schröder turned down a four-year, $84MM extension offer from the Lakers and is expected to be on the move this summer. Fischer notes that Schröder wants a bigger salary and a larger role in the offense, but he’s not likely to get either in L.A. The Bulls and Knicks are expected to have interest in the veteran point guard, according to league sources, and a sign-and-trade is the Lakers’ best opportunity to add talent this offseason. L.A. will also continue to see what it can get in return for Kyle Kuzma, Fischer adds.
- The Sixers remain interested in Raptors guard Kyle Lowry and he’s believed to welcome the chance to play for his hometown team. Several contenders will have their eyes on Philadelphia guard Danny Green, who represents another sign-and-trade opportunity.
- Giving P.J. Tucker a new deal with the $12MM average salary he asked for in Houston would push the Bucks over the tax apron. Fischer states that the Nets have been interested in Tucker since they started negotiating the James Harden trade, and the Heat expressed interest as well when they talked to the Rockets about Victor Oladipo. Fischer identifies the Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets and Jazz as other teams to watch, along with the Timberwolves, who are led by former Houston executive Gersson Rosas and have been trying to acquire Tucker since the 2020 draft.
- Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie and Warriors forward Kelly Oubre are two other potential names on the sign-and-trade market, according to Fischer. Sources say Brooklyn kept Dinwiddie past the trade deadline so he could be a potential sign-and-trade asset, while Oubre offers a chance for tax-strapped Golden State to pick up talent. Fischer names the Mavericks, Knicks and Heat as teams that would be interested in both players.
Following up on Shams Charania’s report that the Knicks have been the most aggressive trade suitor for Collin Sexton so far, Marc Berman of The New York Post confirms that the team has the Cavaliers guard on its trade radar.
According to Berman, the Knicks would’ve picked Sexton over Kevin Knox in the 2018 draft if he had slipped to No. 9 instead of being selected at No. 8. Berman adds that Knicks forward Obi Toppin, who played his college ball at Dayton, may be a player the Cavs would target in a trade.
A source tells Berman that the Knicks – who hold the 19th and 21st overall picks – are open to trading out of the first round entirely in order to acquire an “established player.” Sexton has certainly established himself as a talented scorer, having averaged 24.5 points per game in 2020/21, though it’s unclear if New York would be willing to offer both of its first-round picks in a package for him.
Here’s more from around the East:
- Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel explores whether Sexton might be a fit for the Heat, concluding that such an acquisition would have to be accompanied by another significant addition in order to make Miami a legit contender in the East.
- Ayo Dosunmu, Daishen Nix, Kessler Edwards, Cameron Thomas, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Josh Christopher, Joel Ayayi, David Duke, Joe Wieskamp, Luka Garza, Moses Wright, Justin Champagnie, Sandro Mamukelashvili, John Petty, JT Thor, and Carlik Jones are among the prospects that have worked out for the Hawks or will do so soon, reports Chris Kirschner of The Athletic (Twitter link).
- Jalen Suggs is considered the most likely pick for the Raptors at No. 4 and has been referred to as a potential Kyle Lowry replacement. However, Eric Koreen of The Athletic isn’t convinced that the Raps will – or should – resign themselves to losing Lowry if they draft Suggs or another guard, suggesting that the veteran point guard’s free agency won’t be dependent on which player the team selects in the draft.
John Collins‘ playoff averages of 13.9 points and 8.7 rebounds per game (in 32.0 MPG) don’t jump off the page. However, people around the NBA believe the Hawks big man bolstered his case for a maximum-salary type investment this offseason with his postseason performance, says Shams Charania of The Athletic. Collins played a key role in Atlanta winning two series as an underdog and getting to within two games of the NBA Finals.
Since Collins will be a restricted free agent, the Hawks will have the ability to either sign Collins to a new deal themselves or match any offer sheet he signs with another team. Still, the club has projected reluctance to go all the way up to max for the 23-year-old, so a rival suitor could put pressure on Atlanta’s ownership and front office by presenting an aggressive four-year offer. The Mavericks, Heat, Spurs, and Timberwolves are among the teams expected to display interest, sources tell Charania.
Here’s more from Charania:
- The Rockets have been actively exploring ways to move up from No. 2 and acquire the Pistons‘ No. 1 pick, sources tell Charania. A report last week suggested Houston has been “fixated” on Cade Cunningham, the top prospect in this year’s draft class, while multiple reports have stated that Detroit likes Jalen Green and Evan Mobley, so it’s possible the two teams could be motivated to work something out.
- The Rockets have also been discussing veteran guard Eric Gordon in trade scenarios, according to Charania. Gordon, who still has two guaranteed years left on his contract, would be a better fit on a win-now team than a rebuilding Houston squad.
- Isaiah Todd, who played for the G League Ignite in 2020/21, is canceling draft workouts with teams late in the first round, including the Jazz, and is focusing on teams with lottery picks, says Charania. That seems awfully optimistic for a prospect ranked 47th overall on ESPN’s big board.
- Villanova’s Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has been impressing teams, including the Pelicans, during the pre-draft process, per Charania. Robinson-Earl ranks 60th on ESPN’s board.
The Heat made a key personnel decision that could have adversely impacted their 2020/21 season in letting Jae Crowder walk as a free agent during the 2020 offseason, writes Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The club opted to not sign Crowder to a long-term deal so that it could keep its coffers open for the summer of 2021, when Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo was scheduled to be a free agent. Of course, Antetokounmpo then signed a lucrative extension with Milwaukee, and the Bucks would go on to sweep the Heat 4-0 in the first round of the 2021 postseason.
Crowder, meanwhile, signed a three-year, $29.2MM deal with the Suns. Though Crowder’s statistical numbers may be modest, Winderman notes that his toughness and versatility would have significantly aided Miami’s 2020/21 season. Crowder is now bringing those same attributes to bear for the Suns in the NBA Finals. The club is up 2-0 against the Bucks.
There’s more out of the Southeast Division:
- Team Nigeria head coach Mike Brown sang the praises of Heat forwards Precious Achiuwa and KZ Okpala after they contributed to Team Nigeria’s 90-87 exhibition match upset over Team USA in an Olympics tuneup game, writes Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Achiuwa and Okpala’s contributions went beyond their minor offensive output. Their Miami teammate Gabe Vincent, meanwhile, enjoyed a stellar offensive game for Nigeria, scoring a team-high 21 points on 66.7% field goal shooting.
- Several current and former Magic players expressed their excitement when the news broke today that Orlando would be hiring Mavericks assistant Jamahl Mosley to be the club’s new head coach, writes Chris Hays of The Orlando Sentinel. “I’m happy for him,” Magic forward Jonathan Isaac told Hays. “He’s been faithful to the grind and the league for many years.” Former Magic guard J.J. Redick, who was coached by Mosley in Dallas this season, tweeted “Love this!!”
- The Wizards, who have the No. 15 pick in the 2021 draft, will hold pre-draft workouts for six draft candidates on Monday, per a team press release. Richmond guard Blake Francis, Florida guard Tre Mann, Avtodor Saratov forward Nikita Mikhailovskii, Tennessee swingman Yves Pons, Stanford forward Oscar Da Silva, and Coppin State wing Koby Thomas will all get a look from Washington’s brain trust.
Bradley Beal of the Wizards is getting a first-hand look at what a Hall-of-Fame coach looks like, and he’s loving it, writes Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington.
“(Gregg Popovich is) perfect, man,” Beal said. “He’s an awesome coach to be around and his energy, his intensity, it just trickles down to everybody. It’s contagious.”
The timing is interesting, Hughes notes, as the Wizards are currently in the midst of a coaching search. Whomever the Wizards hire will be the third head coach of Beal’s career, and now that Beal has experience playing under Popovich, it will be interesting to see what he makes of the new hire. It’s been reported that Beal will have input in the decision.
We have more notes from around the Southeast Division:
- In his latest mailbag, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel discusses the question of whether the Heat missed an opportunity by not doing more to keep Suns GM James Jones – 2021’s Executive of the Year – in the Heat organization. It’s unlikely Jones would’ve gotten the same opportunity that he got in Phoenix as quickly in Miami, Winderman concludes.
- Much has been made of Jimmy Butler‘s combative nature, Winderman writes, but Heat legend Chris Bosh says some of that is the nature of the NBA, and that competitive fire looks different when the team is winning versus when it’s losing. “There’ll always be reports of conflict when the season isn’t that good. The conflict is different. When they’re winning and arguing, it’s great, it’s a great thing,” Bosh said. “What I find is most important, is you have to talk about it. We’re all adults, right?”
- Winderman also checks in with Heat free agent Nemanja Bjelica on the heels of Serbia’s elimination from the Tokyo Olympic qualifying tournament last weekend on their home floor. “Disaster, it is fair to say, failure,” Bjelica said. “We are always expected to always win. The only thing left is that we wanted to make these people happy. I can only apologize, if it means something. I will take responsibility as a player with the most experience here.”
Just about everything went right for the Heat during the summer restart in the Walt Disney World bubble last summer. Having entered the playoffs as a No. 5 seed in the East, Miami won three consecutive series as the road team, then came within two wins of a championship before falling to the Lakers.
The Heat brought back a pretty similar roster in 2020/21, aiming to finish higher in the standings and make another deep playoff run. But health issues limited the team’s ability to build much momentum during the regular season, and the departures of some key role players (such as Jae Crowder) – along with underwhelming or nonexistent contributions from new additions (including Victor Oladipo) – were major factors in Miami’s lack of postseason success.
With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo locked up for multiple seasons, the Heat have a solid All-Star duo to build around, but president of basketball operations Pat Riley may consider making significant roster changes around that duo after Miami became the only one of this year’s 16 playoff teams not to win a single game in the postseason.
The Heat’s Offseason Plan:
The Heat enter the offseason with only five players under contract: Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. That gives the team some flexibility to go in multiple directions.
A year ago, the Heat had the ability to create some cap room, but instead chose to re-sign several of their own free agents, operate over the cap, and use the mid-level exception to try to add a role player or two. It’s possible Miami will go that route again this summer.
The team options for Goran Dragic ($19MM+) and Andre Iguodala ($15MM) may be a little higher than the club would like, but both players could be re-signed even if their options are declined, and Miami would have the ability to bring back some combination of Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica too. Dewayne Dedmon could also be re-signed, though the Heat would have to use an exception to do so if he’s seeking more than the minimum, since he’ll only have Non-Bird rights.
On the other hand, if the Heat aren’t convinced that running it back again is a good play, they could let most of those free agents walk and try their luck on the open market — they’d have $20MM+ in cap room even if they retained the modest cap holds for Nunn and Robinson (they could go over the cap to re-sign those two RFAs after using their cap space).
Still, considering this year’s free agent class is somewhat underwhelming and $20MM likely wouldn’t get them a star-caliber player, I’d expect the Heat to operate over the cap and try to land an impact player on the trade market.
Exercising Dragic’s or Iguodala’s team option would give the Heat a sizeable expiring contract to use for salary-matching (they could pick up both options if needed), and while their ability to trade future first-round picks is somewhat limited, they have valuable young players – such as Herro and Achiuwa – who could be dangled as trade chips.
One potential target to keep an eye on is Kyle Lowry, who is close friends with Butler. The Heat pursued Lowry at the March trade deadline, but were reportedly unwilling to part with Herro to make a deal happen. The Heat could theoretically clear enough cap room to make him a strong offer, so if Lowry wants to team up with Butler, the Raptors’ leverage in sign-and-trade talks would decrease. That would allow Miami to negotiate more favorable trade terms and hang onto Herro, possibly for another trade down the road.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Jimmy Butler ($36,016,200)
- Bam Adebayo ($28,103,500) 1
- Ryan Anderson ($5,214,583) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Tyler Herro ($4,004,280)
- Precious Achiuwa ($2,711,280)
- KZ Okpala ($1,782,621)
- Total: $77,832,464
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Goran Dragic ($19,440,000): Bird rights
- Andre Iguodala ($15,000,000): Bird rights
- Omer Yurtseven ($1,517,981): Non-Bird rights 2
- Total: $35,957,981
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- None
Restricted Free Agents
Kendrick Nunn ($4,736,102 qualifying offer / $4,736,102 cap hold): Bird rights- Duncan Robinson ($4,736,102 qualifying offer / $4,736,102 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $9,472,204
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
- Jimmy Butler (veteran)
- KZ Okpala (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Victor Oladipo ($31,500,000): Bird rights
- Trevor Ariza ($16,640,000): Early Bird rights
- Nemanja Bjelica ($13,585,000): Bird rights
- Dewayne Dedmon ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Udonis Haslem ($1,669,178): Bird rights
- Jordan Mickey ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 4
- Dwyane Wade ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 4
- Total: $68,401,712
Offseason Cap Outlook
As noted above, the Heat could create over $20MM+ in cap room by declining all their team options and renouncing all their free agents except Nunn and Robinson. Renouncing Nunn and Robinson would get the team up to $28MM+ in cap space.
But unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to clear that space, I don’t see Miami giving up its rights to so many useful players. The bet here is that the Heat operate as an over-the-cap team and bring back a few of their own free agents.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. Adebayo’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
- Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
- Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Heat for two seasons, Vincent is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
- The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decided to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
- Heat guard Tyler Herro views this summer as a prime opportunity to continue growing his game and to develop a stronger relationship with head coach Erik Spoelstra, as Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald details. Herro’s first NBA offseason following his rookie season a year ago lasted just over two months, as the Heat faced a quick turnaround following their trip to the NBA Finals.