- Heat president of basketball operations Pat Riley was aware that his club probably needed more firepower to have a chance to return to the NBA Finals this year, says Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. However, Riley was unable to land Kyle Lowry at the deadline and his acquisition of Victor Oladipo didn’t work out, which could contribute to an early postseason exit for the defending Eastern champs.
- With the Heat trailing the Bucks 2-0, Anthony Chiang and Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald explore whether a frontcourt pairing of Bam Adebayo and second-half addition Dewayne Dedmon might be a viable solution to counter Milwaukee’s size.
- Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel wonders if the Heat will make another run at current Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry, a free agent this summer. Miami considered trading for the former six-time All-Star at this season’s deadline, but instead opted to add guard Victor Oladipo, who only appeared in four games for the club before requiring another surgery on the right quadriceps tendon he initially ruptured in 2019. Winderman notes that Heat star swingman Jimmy Butler and Lowry are close, as Lowry is the godfather to Butler’s daughter. Winderman adds that adding a high-level veteran point guard to upgrade the position could help the Heat convince Butler to ink a contract extension, which he will be eligible to do this summer.
As we discussed on Monday, the postseason is off to a fascinating start in the Western Conference, where the underdogs in all four series won Game One. The results in the Eastern Conference haven’t been quite as surprising so far.
The No. 1 Sixers and No. 2 Nets took care of the Wizards and Celtics in their respective Game Ones. Although Washington and Boston were competitive, the star power of the higher seeds may be too much for the two play-in teams — Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris racked up a combined 67 points for Philadelphia on Sunday, while Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden scored 82 of Brooklyn’s 104 points on Saturday.
Meanwhile, after upsetting the Bucks in last year’s second round, the Heat have dug themselves a 2-0 hole in this year’s first round, and Monday’s loss was especially one-sided. Milwaukee poured in 46 first-quarter points and 22 total three-pointers en route to a blowout victory.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, the most exciting Eastern Conference series in the first round should be the one featuring two teams that have spent the last few years out of the postseason. The Knicks and Hawks went down to the wire on Sunday, with Trae Young clinching an Atlanta victory by hitting a floater with less than a second left in regulation.
The Celtics, Wizards, and Heat still have plenty of time to turn things around, but oddsmakers view it as a long shot that any of these three clubs will pull off a comeback. BetOnline.ag currently lists the Nets as -2750 favorites, meaning that if you want to bet on Brooklyn to win the series, you’d have to risk $2,750 in order to win just $100. The Sixers (-1800) and Bucks (-1000) are also heavy favorites.
The Hawks’ Game 1 upset has made them the frontrunners over the Knicks, but Vegas still views that series as practically a toss-up compared to the other three — Atlanta is only a -255 favorite.
We want to know what you think. Will the East’s top three seeds hold on and win their respective series with relative ease, or will the Celtics, Wizards, and/or Heat come alive and make things interesting? Do you expect a long series between the Hawks and Knicks? Who are you picking to win that one?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
- The Heat have increased their crowd capacity to 17,000 fans for the postseason, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes. For now, that number is believed to be the highest capacity of all 16 playoff teams. Miami will host Milwaukee in Game 3 on Thursday and Game 4 on Saturday.
Unrestricted free agent Victor Oladipo could return to full contact basketball as soon as November, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reports.
Oladipo underwent surgery on May 13 to repair his right quadriceps tendon. It’s the same tendon that he injured in January 2019, which ended his season in 36 games that year and limited him to 19 games last season.
This could positively impact Oladipo’s free agent status, if teams are confident the prognosis is correct. Oladipo would have certainly been one of the hottest names on the market had he not re-injured the quad.
The Heat looked at Oladipo as a key cog for another deep playoff run. Oladipo was also nagged by a right knee injury that caused him to miss several games.
Orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jonathan Glashow, who performed the latest surgery, told Wojnarowski that he was surprised Oladipo had been playing NBA basketball due to the condition of the tendon. Oladipo appeared in just four games after Houston traded him to the Heat.
Miami dealt Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk, and also agreed to a 2022 first-round draft-pick swap, for Oladipo. He turned down a two-year, $42.5MM extension offer from the Rockets in February.
“The quad wasn’t really hooked up. It was torn, and I re-attached it,” Glashow said. “I was amazed he was playing with what he had. I’m very optimistic that I could clear him in six months, by November. … I’m confident he’ll play next year.”
The Heat and Oladipo will hold discussions about his potential future in Miami, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets.
Oladipo would “love” to return and Miami hasn’t ruled out that possibility, Jackson adds. He will rehab the injury under the supervision of the Heat medical staff and Dr. Glashow, per Wojnarowski.
Unsurprisingly, Heat forward/center Bam Adebayo learned on Thursday that he isn’t a finalist for either the MVP or Defensive Player of the Year award in 2021, as Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald writes.
That’s notable not because Adebayo had a realistic shot at either award, but because the value of his five-year, maximum-salary extension would have risen to $195.6MM if he had won the MVP award or $179.3MM if he had been named Defensive Player of the Year (based on a 3% salary cap increase)
The value of that five-year extension could still technically increase to $185.8MM if Adebayo is named to the All-NBA First Team. However, that’s not going to happen, so the Heat can safely pencil in $163MM as the projected five-year amount of the big man’s new contract, which begins in 2021/22.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- Given how important Jae Crowder‘s contributions were in last year’s playoff run to the NBA Finals, Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald wonders if Trevor Ariza, acquired during the season, can play a similar role this time around. “We might be similar players but we have different roles and different attributes about ourselves,” Ariza said. “To say I can come in and do what he did would probably be disrespectful to what he brings to teams. I’m my own individual player. I would like to think what I do is good.”
- The book is now closed on the Heat’s 2015 acquisition of Goran Dragic, as Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel observes. While surrendering two future first-round picks for Dragic was a bit of a risk, the 2018 first-rounder (Zhaire Smith) had little impact and this year’s pick will fall outside of the lottery, at No. 18. It’ll go to Houston or Oklahoma City depending on the lottery results.
- Of the Heat’s two key RFAs-to-be, Kendrick Nunn would probably benefit more than Duncan Robinson from a strong performance in the postseason, Winderman says in a separate story for The Sun Sentinel. As Winderman explains, Robinson has already established his value over the last two seasons, while Nunn’s contributions have been less consistent, and the aftereffects of COVID-19 limited his role in last year’s postseason.
On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.
With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…
Lottery standings
Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.
A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).
The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.
Draft order
Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.
The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.
If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.
Notable traded second-round picks
On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:
The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.
The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.
Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.
The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.
The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).
Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).
After falling to the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament, the Spurs face important decisions on their veteran players. DeMar DeRozan will be one of the biggest names on the free agent market this summer, and San Antonio must decide whether to make a long-term investment in the 31-year-old guard on a team filled with young talent.
The Spurs will have an exclusive window to reach a new deal with DeRozan before free agency begins August 1, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider article). DeRozan is eligible for an extension that could pay him up to $149.1MM over the next four seasons, including a $33.3MM starting salary for 2021/22.
If DeRozan reaches the open market, Marks identifies the Hornets, Mavericks, Heat and Knicks as teams that would have cap space and interest in signing the high-scoring guard. He suggests New York, which will have $55MM available, could be tempted to reunite DeRozan with his long-time friend and former Raptors backcourt partner, Kyle Lowry.
There’s more from San Antonio:
- Similar decisions will have to be made on Patty Mills and Rudy Gay, who are both headed to free agency, Marks adds in the same piece. Mills, who will turn 33 this summer, has spent most of his career with the Spurs and was considered a Sixth Man of the Year candidate during the first half of the season. Gay, who turns 35 in August, is a dependable three-point shooter and an effective weapon off the bench.
- After spending much of his rookie year in the G League, Keldon Johnson made significant progress during his second NBA season, writes Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. The 21-year-old small forward started 67 games this year and appears to be part of the Spurs’ foundation heading forward. “I’ve learned a lot,” Johnson said. “I’ve grown a lot — on and off the court — from just observing (coach Gregg Popovich) and how he goes about things. … He’s taught me so many things.”
- Popovich is encouraged by the progress his team made this season, but he cautions that becoming a title contender won’t happen right away, Orsborn tweets. “That takes time,” Popovich said. “… The more these guys get to practice together, the more they develop, hopefully the record will bend in the correct direction.”
- The Heat will increase their crowd capacity for the postseason, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald tweets. A crowd of 8,600 fans (43%) will be allowed in for the first round of the playoffs. The arena capacity was previously at 5,700 (29%).
Heat star wing Jimmy Butler has had an outsized impact on the club during the games he has been available this season, per Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. As Chiang observes, the Heat are 6-13 in games played without Butler this year. Miami is 33-19 when Butler has suited up.
The veteran swingman is averaging 21.5 PPG and career highs of 6.9 RPG, 7.1 APG and 2.1 SPG for the club, though Chiang notes that Butler’s impact goes beyond these basic counting stats — his on/off-court net rating differential is 11.4 points per 100 possessions. Chiang posits that Butler, whose early-season injuries kept him out of making his sixth All-Star team, will earn significant consideration for All-NBA and All-Defensive team honors.
“I think if we had a complete year and a full year and health and everything, yeah Jimmy Butler, in my mind, has to be in that conversation for [league] MVP,” head coach Erik Spoelstra raved, while taking into consideration the fact that Butler and several of his teammates have missed significant time due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols and injuries during a truncated 2020/21 season. “I think his game is just continuing to grow, that’s as a winner, as a throw back player. A guy that really impacts the game on both ends of the court. He truly does, it’s not just talk. He has as much of an impact on the defensive side as he does the offensive side.”
The 39-32 Heat, currently the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, will conclude their season today against the 20-51 Pistons. Butler missed yesterday’s loss to Milwaukee due to lower back stiffness, and Chiang tweets that he will sit out the season finale as well.
There’s more out of South Beach:
- The Heat’s latest addition, 275-pound seven-footer Omer Yurtseven, inked his deal with Miami Friday. Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reveals that the 22-year-old big man’s contract covers the 2021/22 season, though next year’s salary will be non-guaranteed. Yurtseven was undrafted out of Georgetown in 2020. “I think that will be the biggest thing, the rebounding and the defending,” he said during a video call with reporters Friday. “And on the other side of the floor, being able to stretch the floor, being a hybrid big.” Yurtseven played for the Oklahoma City Blue, the Thunder’s G League affiliate, during the 2020/21 NBAGL “bubble” season in Orlando. Across 14 games for the Blue, he averaged 15.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.4 BPG during 21.1 minutes. He also boasted a solid slash line of .626/.381/.680.
- Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel suggests that thinking too long-term could hurt the Heat’s short-term aspirations. Winderman points to the club’s decision to sign unproven rookie Yurtseven to its 15th and final roster spot over a veteran who could help the club in the playoffs.
- Heat center Bam Adebayo could net a major payoff if he earns end-of-year awards honors during the span of his maximum five-year, $163MM rookie extension with the club, as Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel notes. If Adebayo is named to the All-NBA First Team, the value of his deal increases to $186MM over the length of the contract. If he nets the Defensive Player of the Year award, his cumulative salary would increase to $179MM. Neither of those outcomes seems particularly likely this season, however.