- The Heat continue to have interest in Kings forward Nemanja Bjelica, according to the Sacramento Bee’s Jason Anderson, and they got a good look at him on Thursday. With Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes sidelined, Bjelica made his first start of the season and scored 25 points with eight rebounds, three assists and two steals. Bjelica is making $7.15MM and the Heat have a $7.6MM trade exception to absorb Bjelica’s contract, Anderson notes. Bjelica has temporarily rejoined the rotation the last four games. “To be honest with you, I work my (butt) off,” Bjelica said. “That’s what everybody’s supposed to do when you’re out of the rotation or you don’t play or you play less.”
We’re over a third away into the NBA’s 2020/21 regular season, and while the standings will surely fluctuate significantly between now and the end of the season in May, we’re starting to get a sense of which teams will be competitive and which teams probably won’t be.
As a picture begins to form of which teams will be vying for top seeds in each conference and which might be battling for lottery odds, it’s worth checking in on the traded first-round picks for 2021. Of next year’s 30 first-round selections, as many as 13 could technically change hands, via trades or swaps. This year’s standings will dictate where those picks land and whether or not some of them change hands at all.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here’s an early look at which of those traded picks are most and least likely to change hands, and which ones are still very much up in the air:
Unprotected picks that will definitely change hands:
- Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick.
- Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick.
There’s no mystery here about whether or not these picks will be conveyed in 2021, since both are unprotected. It looks like the Knicks will make out much better than the Pelicans, given how well the Lakers have played and how much the Mavericks has struggled. As of today, Dallas’ pick projects to fall in the lottery, at No. 13 (depending on play-in results), while L.A.’s first-rounder would be No. 29.
Protected picks that almost certainly won’t change hands:
- Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection).
- Rockets acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
The Jazz currently have the NBA’s best record, while the Pistons hold the league’s second-worst record. That means Utah’s pick will be at the end of the first round (currently No. 30) and comfortably fall within its 15-30 protection, while Detroit’s pick will absolutely be in the lottery (currently No. 2) and won’t be sent to Houston. It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which this outlook changes in the coming months.
The Grizzlies can at least count on getting Utah’s first-rounder in 2022, when it will become top-six protected. It may be a while before the Rockets get a pick from Detroit though — that first-rounder remains heavily protected in 2022 (top-16), 2023 (top-18), and 2024 (top-18) before those protections start to loosen a little.
It’s also worth mentioning here that the Knicks have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Clippers this season, but are very unlikely to pass L.A. in the standings and be in position to exercise that option. New York’s first-rounder currently projects to be No. 17, while the Clippers’ would be No. 28.
Still up in the air:
- Warriors acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick (top-three protected).
- Thunder acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected).
The Timberwolves have the NBA’s worst record, which theoretically puts them in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. However, the league’s lottery format means that even if Minnesota finishes at the bottom of the NBA standings, there’s still only about a 40% chance they’ll end up in the top three and keep that first-rounder, with a 60% chance of it going to the Warriors. The fate of that pick figures to remain up in the air right up until lottery night.
We have a better chance at getting clarity on the fate of Golden State’s first-rounder before the end of the season, but at the moment, it could still easily go either way. The Warriors’ 15-13 record would give the team the No. 20 overall pick if the season ended today, allowing them to keep their pick rather than sending it to the Thunder. But that could change quickly — there are currently 11 teams within two games of Golden State in the NBA standings, on one side or the other.
Analyzing the Rockets/Thunder/Heat/Blazers/Nets situation:
Six teams’ draft picks are tied up in a series of convoluted trades and swaps that are nearly impossible to explain clearly and concisely. Fortunately, one of those teams is the Pistons, whose pick will be protected this year, removing them from the equation.
That still leaves five teams in this complex arrangement, however. We did our best in an earlier story to explain how this situation will work. It essentially breaks down like this:
- The Thunder will have the right to swap either their first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick for the Rockets‘ first-round pick, but only if Houston’s pick doesn’t fall in the top four. In other words, if Houston gets a top-four pick, the Rockets will keep their own first-rounder; if not, the Thunder will get the two most favorable picks of their own, the Heat’s, and the Rockets’, and Houston will get the least favorable.
- Once the first step is complete, the Rockets will be left with at least one first-round pick, and likely two, since they’re also owed the Trail Blazers‘ first-rounder (top-14 protected). They would then have the right to swap either of those picks with the Nets‘ first-rounder (unprotected).
If the season ended today, the Heat, Thunder, and Rockets would – believe it or not – all be tied in the standings with matching 11-16 records. A random tiebreaker would determine where those first-rounders land in the 6-to-9 range (since Atlanta also has a 11-16 record), assuming no lottery movement, then the Thunder would claim the two most favorable picks (no worse than No. 7 and No. 8), while the Rockets would get the least favorable pick (either No. 8 or No. 9).
The Rockets would also receive the Trail Blazers’ first-rounder (either No. 25 or No. 26), and would subsequently swap it with the Nets’ pick (No. 24), leaving Brooklyn with that Portland pick.
I’d expect this situation to continue to evolve considerably over the course of the season, but for now it looks pretty favorable for both the Thunder and the Rockets.
Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen and Heat guard Kendrick Nunn both met the starter criteria as a result of being included in their respective teams’ starting lineups on Monday night.
The starter criteria applies to players who will be eligible for restricted free agency at season’s end. Typically, a player is required to start a total of 82 games during the two seasons prior to his free agency to meet the criteria, but that threshold has been adjusted and varies from player to player this year, since each of the last two NBA seasons have been shortened.
Based on the number of games their teams played prior to the hiatus last season, Allen needed a total of 68 starts over two seasons (not counting the summer bubble), while Nunn required 69. Allen had 58 pre-hiatus starts last season and recorded his 10th of this season on Monday, while Nunn had 62 last season and now has seven this year.
In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must issue him a qualifying offer, which is essentially a guaranteed one-year contract offer that gives the team the right of first refusal on a rival offer sheet. Meeting the starter criteria makes a player eligible for a larger qualifying offer than he would have been if he’d fallen short of that criteria.
By meeting the starter criteria, Allen boosts the value of his qualifying offer from $5,661,538 to $7,705,447, while Nunn’s QO increases from $2,122,822 to $4,736,102, the same figure that applies to his teammate Duncan Robinson.
Of course, a team has the option of forgoing a qualifying offer and making a player an unrestricted free agent rather than an RFA, but that seems unlikely to happen for Nunn and extremely unlikely for Allen, who is expected to be Cleveland’s long-term center.
Allen and Nunn are the fourth and fifth RFAs-to-be to meet the starter criteria this season, joining Robinson, Lonzo Ball, and Devonte’ Graham. Barring an injury or another unexpected development, Hawks big man John Collins, who needs just two more starts, will be the next to reach that threshold.
- Ira Winderman of The Sun Sentinel examines whether the Heat should go all-in for Hawks star John Collins. Miami has struggled offensively and could benefit from acquiring a starting power forward this season, though Collins would certainly come with a somewhat-hefty price tag. The 23-year-old has averaged 18.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 31.8 minutes per game in 26 contests, starting over free-agent acquisition Danilo Gallinari.
- Winderman examines in a separate story how the Heat’s flexibility is being limited by roster constraints. Miami has dealt with a series of injuries and COVID-19 issues this season, often leaving the team short-handed or leading to inconsistency during games.
- Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel wonders if the struggling Heat should make a full-court press for two-way Hawks power forward John Collins. The power forward position has been problematic for Miami this season, while Collins – who is on an expiring contract – is averaging 18.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 1.6 APG for the 11-15 Hawks. He holds a slash line of .543/.391/.853.
The Heat are among the teams expressing interest in Kings big man Nemanja Bjelica, according to Jason Anderson of the Sacramento Bee. This follows a report from Sam Amick of The Athletic on Tuesday, which, as we relayed, mentioned the Sixers have also considered pursuing the 32-year-old.
Sacramento has reportedly explored the market for Bjelica, who prefers a trade before the March 25 deadline. Miami has a glaring need for a starting power forward and has yet to successfully replace Jae Crowder, who left the team in free agency last year.
Bjelica, a 6’11” forward, averaged 11.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 27.9 minutes per game last season, shooting 42% from behind the arc. The six-year veteran is also an improved defender, spending the last three seasons with the Kings.
“Belly’s a professional,” teammate Harrison Barnes said, per Anderson. “… This season, obviously the minutes have been up and down for him, but he stayed ready. He’s continued to stay involved with the team, just mentally stay engaged, and it showed tonight.”
The Heat own a 11-14 record this season, having dealt with a litany of injuries and COVID-related issues. The team has won four straight games and will continue a seven-game road trip against the surging Jazz on Saturday.
For the second time in two weeks, Heat guard Tyler Herro briefly entered the NBA’s health and safety protocols. When he was first affected by the protocols on January 31, Herro only had to sit out a practice before being cleared, but this time around, he missed Thursday’s game in Houston.
Still, Herro and the Heat got good news today, as the second-year sharpshooter was cleared to rejoin the Heat and resume basketball activities. According to Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press, Herro was flagged after a Thursday test result, but gained clearance after returning multiple negative tests and was able to join the team on its flight to Salt Lake City for Saturday’s game.
- In Herro’s absence, two-way player Max Strus took on an increased role on Thursday and had arguably the best game of his NBA career, scoring 21 points on 6-of-9 shooting in 25 minutes. Strus took advantage of the fact that the Heat were without guards Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley in addition to Herro, writes Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. “I knew that my hard work would pay off at some point,” Strus said after the game. “To be honest, to be doing this this early in the season, I probably didn’t expect that. But it’s a weird year and there’s a lot of weird things going on. So you’ve just got to be ready.”
- The Heat will play their next seven games on the road, but when they eventually return home on February 24, they’ll increase the fan capacity at AmericanAirlines Arena to roughly 3,000 people, tweets Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press.
While Heat guard Avery Bradley is frustrated to be missing more time after dealing with a positive COVID-19 test and a knee contusion earlier in the season, he said this week that he’s relieved his calf strain – which will sideline him for about three or four weeks – wasn’t a more serious injury.
“I could just feel the pop, which really scared me because first thing you’re thinking with a non-contact pop is my Achilles,” Bradley said, per Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. “So I was nervous and really frustrated. Now I’m just happy that it wasn’t anything severe and I’ll be able to rehab it.”
If the Heat play it safe with Bradley’s recovery, he likely won’t get back on the court until sometime after the All-Star break, which will run from March 5-10. However, the veteran guard hopes to beat that timeline and “get some games under my belt before the break,” as Chiang relays.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- Although Bradley won’t be back anytime soon, fellow guard Goran Dragic (left ankle sprain) could rejoin the Heat as some point during their seven-game, 13-day road trip, which begins on Thursday night in Houston, per Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
- Within that same Herald story, Tyler Herro says he has had no problem readjusting to a bench role after opening the season as a starter. “I played the whole (2019/20) year off the bench,” he said. “Doing whatever works for the team (is most important). Everyone hates losing. Moving to the bench wasn’t hard for me. I’ll do whatever this team needs me to do to win.”
- In a separate story for The Miami Herald, Jackson explores how the Heat could upgrade their roster in the coming months and how they could take advantage of their projected cap room in the offseason.
- In a mailbag, Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel explains why the Heat didn’t try to beat the Knicks to the punch to acquire Derrick Rose and notes that Kendrick Nunn is unlikely to retain the starting point guard role once Dragic and Bradley are ready to go. It’s worth noting that if Nunn starts three more games this season, he’d meet the “starter criteria,” bumping the value of his qualifying offer as a restricted free agent from $2.1MM to $4.7MM.
It has been an up-and-down 12 months for the NBA, which had to pause its operations for several months when its players first began testing positive for the coronavirus last March. Although the league was eventually able to play the 2020 postseason and is in the midst of its (slightly-abridged) 2020/21 regular season, fans still haven’t been able to return to arenas in many NBA cities, putting a major dent in projected revenues for the coming year.
Despite the financial challenges faced by many of the NBA’s teams, the overall value of those franchises continues to increase, according to a report from Kurt Badenhausen and Mike Ozanian of Forbes. While it’s the most modest year-over-year rise since 2010, Forbes estimates that average team values are up by about 4% from 2020.
The Knicks have become the first franchise to earn a $5 billion valuation from Forbes, with a league-high 9% increase in their value since last February. The Warriors, meanwhile, also saw their value rise by 9%, according to Forbes, surpassing the Lakers for the No. 2 spot on the annual report. The league-wide average of $2.2 billion per team in 2021 is a new record for Forbes’ valuations.
Forbes’ valuations are slightly more conservative than the ones issued by sports-business outlet Sportico last month — Sportico’s report featured an average team value of nearly $2.4 billion, with the Knicks, Warriors, and Lakers all surpassing the $5 billion threshold.
Here’s the full list of NBA franchise valuations, per Forbes:
- New York Knicks: $5 billion
- Golden State Warriors: $4.7 billion
- Los Angeles Lakers: $4.6 billion
- Chicago Bulls: $3.3 billion
- Boston Celtics: $3.2 billion
- Los Angeles Clippers: $2.75 billion
- Brooklyn Nets: $2.65 billion
- Houston Rockets: $2.5 billion
- Dallas Mavericks: $2.45 billion
- Toronto Raptors: $2.15 billion
- Philadelphia 76ers: $2.075 billion
- Miami Heat: $2 billion
- Portland Trail Blazers: $1.9 billion
- San Antonio Spurs: $1.85 billion
- Sacramento Kings: $1.825 billion
- Washington Wizards: $1.8 billion
- Phoenix Suns: $1.7 billion
- Utah Jazz: $1.66 billion
- Denver Nuggets: $1.65 billion
- Milwaukee Bucks: $1.625 billion
- Oklahoma City Thunder: $1.575 billion
- Cleveland Cavaliers: $1.56 billion
- Indiana Pacers: $1.55 billion
- Atlanta Hawks: $1.52 billion
- Charlotte Hornets: $1.5 billion
- Orlando Magic: $1.46 billion
- Detroit Pistons: $1.45 billion
- Minnesota Timberwolves: $1.4 billion
- New Orleans Pelicans: $1.35 billion
- Memphis Grizzlies: $1.3 billion
While most franchise values increased, that wasn’t the case across the board. The Thunder, Hawks, Hornets, Pistons, Pelicans, and Grizzlies all maintained the same value that they had in 2020. No teams decreased in value, however.
The Jazz had the biggest rise in the bottom half of this list, moving from 21st in 2020’s rankings to 18th this year. That’s because the team was actually sold to a new majority owner in recent months, with Ryan Smith assuming control of the franchise at its new $1.66 billion valuation.
As that Jazz example shows, the actual amount a team is sold for often exceeds Forbes’ valuation, so these figures should just be viewed as estimates.