- Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald examines what the Heat might gain by trading their 2020 first round draft pick, N0. 20, either for multiple future picks or for immediate veteran help. Jackson notes that a move for future draft equity could save the Heat $3MM, which could help clear the team’s coffers ahead of a loaded 2021 free agency window.
- After playing in the NBA Finals as recently as October 11, the Heat face an action-packed November ahead of the league’s December 22 restart, according to The Miami Herald’s Anthony Chiang and Barry Jackson. The 71-day gap between seasons is the briefest in the history of the NBA, MLB, NFL, or NHL. The Heat will have to deal with six upcoming unrestricted free agents and a potential big extension for new All-Star Bam Adebayo.
Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Miami Heat.
Salary Cap Outlook
The Heat’s six guaranteed contracts, Kelly Olynyk‘s player option, non-guaranteed salaries for Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson, and the cap hold for their first-round pick add up to approximately $86MM. That means the team could theoretically open up about $22MM in cap room.
However, there are a number of free agents Miami may try to re-sign, starting with Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder. Unless all those free agents walk, the Heat will likely operate as an over-the-cap team, with the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) available. That will allow the club to retain its lone trade exception, worth about $7.5MM.
Our full salary cap preview for the Heat can be found right here.
Roster Decisions To Watch
Options:
- Kelly Olynyk, player option: $13,198,243
Non-Guaranteed Contracts:
- Kendrick Nunn ($1,663,861)
- Duncan Robinson ($1,663,861)
Two-Way Contracts:
- Kyle Alexander (expiring)
- Gabe Vincent (expiring)
Free Agents:
- Goran Dragic (Bird)
- Jae Crowder (Bird)
- Derrick Jones (Bird)
- Meyers Leonard (Bird)
- Solomon Hill (Bird)
- Udonis Haslem (Bird)
2020 Draft Assets
First Round:
- No. 20 overall pick
Second Round:
- None
The Heat still have their own first-round pick, but traded their second-rounder to the Celtics way back in 2015 in a deal that also sent Zoran Dragic to Boston. That pick (No. 50) changed hands many times over the years and ultimately landed with the Hawks as a result of their Dewayne Dedmon/Alex Len/Jabari Parker swap with Sacramento at last season’s trade deadline.
Three Key Offseason Questions
1. Will Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, and the Heat’s other free agents be back?
Nearly half of the Heat’s 15-man roster is eligible for free agency this offseason, and while not all of those players need to be re-signed (Miami likely won’t push too hard for a new deal with Solomon Hill, for instance), a majority of them were key contributors at some point during the 2019/20 season. Dragic and Crowder are the two most important veterans in that group.
Dragic had a strong bounce-back season after an injury-plagued 2018/19, averaging 16.2 PPG and 5.1 APG on .441/.367/.776 shooting and taking over starting point guard duties from Kendrick Nunn in the postseason before going down with a foot injury. Crowder, meanwhile, emerged as one of the Heat’s most reliable contributors on the wing after being acquired in February, averaging 11.9 PPG with a .445 3PT% in 20 regular season games and taking on a number of big defensive assignments in the postseason.
Re-signing both players will be a priority, but the Heat are also prioritizing cap flexibility for the 2021 offseason, when they’d like to make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo or another star free agent. As such, the club will be reluctant to extend many – or perhaps any – multiyear contract offers this fall.
That might be okay with Dragic. At age 34, the veteran point guard is unlikely to receive strong multiyear offers from other suitors, and the Heat are in position to pay him a substantial amount on a one-year contract, perhaps even matching his $19MM salary from this past year. Even if Dragic gets two- or three-year offers in the mid-level range from other clubs, it probably makes more sense for him to accept a big one-year offer from Miami, then return to the free agent market in 2021.
Crowder may be a little trickier to retain. A strong defender who has the size and versatility to match up with opposing scorers, Crowder can also knock down outside shots pretty consistently, making him an easy fit in any system — and he’s four years younger than Dragic. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets three- or four-year offers from other playoff teams this fall.
The Heat could put a big one-year deal on the table for Crowder, but it might be hard for him to pass up long-term security if he gets an offer in, say, the four-year, $40MM range. Crowder’s free agency will depend in large part on what kind of offers are out there for him and whether those longer-term deals are lucrative enough to turn down a shorter-term commitment from Miami. I think he’s a little less likely to return to the Heat than Dragic is.
Of the Heat’s other free agents, it’s safe to say Udonis Haslem will be back on the team’s bench next season — at some point, he’ll probably do so in a coaching role, but as long as he wants to keep playing, a minimum-salary deal should be available for him in Miami.
Derrick Jones and Meyers Leonard played regular minutes for the Heat during the regular season, but saw their playing time dry up in the playoffs. Jones is still just 23 years old and may want an opportunity to spread his wings in a new situation, while Leonard has talked about wanting to play 20-25 minutes for whichever team signs him.
If they aren’t convinced there will be enough playing time to go around in Miami – and aren’t interested in signing for just one year – I wouldn’t expect them to be back. Jones, in particular, seems like a candidate to get a multiyear offer from a retooling team bullish on his youth and upside.
2. Will the Heat sign Bam Adebayo to a maximum-salary extension this offseason?
Avoiding multiyear free agent commitments this fall will be one way for the Heat to keep their cap as clean as possible for the 2021 offseason. Adebayo’s contract situation is another crucial wild card.
Coming off an impressive breakout season, Adebayo will be eligible later this month to sign a rookie scale extension which goes into effect in 2021/22. For players like Adebayo, who have already earned an All-Star nod and are likely to continue improving, a maximum-salary extension is virtually automatic. Teams prefer to get that business done as soon as they can, keeping their young stars happy and avoiding the possibility of an offer sheet in restricted free agency, so negotiations are usually quick and painless.
However, extending Adebayo early would significant eat into Miami’s projected cap room for the 2021 offseason. If we estimate a $112MM salary cap for ’21/22, a max-salary extension for Adebayo would start at $28MM (or more, if he meets Rose Rule criteria).
If Adebayo doesn’t sign an extension and instead reaches restricted free agency next summer, his temporary cap hold would be just $15.35MM. That means the Heat would have upwards of $13MM in additional cap room available. Once they use that space, they could go over the cap to re-sign Adebayo to a new contract that would be identical to the extension he could sign this offseason.
In theory, the Heat should have no problem convincing Adebayo to wait to sign his new deal. As long as the team plans to put the same offer on the table next year, he won’t lose a dollar by waiting. And his cooperation could clear a path for Miami to acquire a star teammate to play alongside him for the next few years, turning the club into a perennial title contender.
Still, a $150MM+ payday isn’t the sort of thing most players are particularly eager to wait on, especially if they’ve only earned a very small fraction of that amount so far in their professional careers. Adebayo may understand the Heat’s thinking, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be comfortable passing on life-changing money and risking the possibility of a career-threatening injury over the next eight months.
It’s a tough spot to put Adebayo in, and if he insists on being paid sooner rather than later, I don’t think the Heat will put up too much of a fight. Keeping their current stars happy is more of a priority than maintaining flexibility for new ones.
Plus, even if Adebayo’s new deal cuts into Miami’s cap room and prevents the club from opening up enough space for a maximum salary in 2021, that doesn’t mean signing a star is off the table. As we saw a year ago, when the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in a sign-and-trade without having any cap space available, the front office is capable of getting creative and making it work if an All-Star really wants to come to South Beach.
3. Could the Heat go star hunting this year rather than waiting until 2021?
Given how many of the Heat’s offseason moves hinge on retaining cap flexibility in 2021, it’s fair to wonder if it makes sense for the team to pursue a star player now rather than waiting for another year. Miami won’t have max cap room this fall and the free agent market isn’t exactly loaded, but the trade market is an avenue the club could explore. And securing another impact player now would free up the organization to extend Adebayo and make more aggressive offers to free agents like Crowder.
The problem with that approach is that there’s virtually no chance the Bucks will consider trading Antetokounmpo, the Heat’s top target. Even if he doesn’t sign an extension, the only way Milwaukee would become inclined to move him is if he asks out, and I don’t see that happening.
As long as landing Giannis in free agency in 2021 remains possible, the Heat won’t want to give up on that chance. Still, there are potential trade candidates who may be free agents in ’21 themselves, which could appeal to Miami.
If, for instance, the Heat could pry Victor Oladipo away from the Pacers for a reasonable return, they’d be in position to re-sign him in 2021 if Giannis isn’t available. And if Antetokounmpo is in play in a year, Oladipo’s expiring contract wouldn’t get in the way of Miami’s pursuit.
On the other hand, if Antetokounmpo re-ups with the Bucks this fall, the Heat would have more flexibility to aggressively pursue a star on the trade market without worrying as much about their 2021 cap situation or the length of their trade target’s contract.
In that scenario, Jrue Holiday and especially Bradley Beal would likely be among Miami’s top targets. Holiday appears to be far more available than Beal, but I imagine the Heat would be willing to give up a more substantial haul for the Wizards’ star — Tyler Herro may be on the table for Beal, whereas I don’t think Miami would put him in an offer for Holiday.
Unlike other teams that have to rely primarily on the trade market to add impact players, the Heat can afford to wait until free agency to make a play for a star, knowing that Miami is among the league’s most desirable destinations. With that in mind, I’d be surprised if the Heat are overly aggressive on the trade market in the next few weeks, especially as long as Antetokounmpo remains on track to become a free agent in 2021.
Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- While Lowe thinks the Heat should be able to re-sign Goran Dragic on a big one-year deal, he expects it to be tougher for Miami to take the same approach with Jae Crowder, who will likely receive multiyear offers in the mid-level range.
[SOURCE LINK]
A Wednesday morning report indicated that the Pelicans are “openly discussing” Jrue Holiday in trade talks, and while it doesn’t appear there’s any momentum toward a deal at this point, a few Holiday-related items have surfaced in the last 24 hours that are worth passing along.
For instance, Mike Singer of The Denver Post and Will Guillory of The Athletic (Twitter links) have each confirmed that New Orleans is listening to offers for Holiday. However, according to Guillory, the veteran guard hasn’t asked the Pelicans to trade him. Holiday remains optimistic about the Pelicans’ young talent and is open to the idea of making it work in New Orleans, Guillory writes.
Here’s more on the Pelicans’ guard:
- A previous report indicated that the Nets and Pelicans discussed a possible Holiday deal at last season’s trade deadline. According to Guillory, the Heat and Nuggets also “heavily pursued” the 30-year-old prior to the 2020 deadline. That doesn’t mean that all those teams will once again be suitors this offseason, but it seems safe to assume that Brooklyn and Denver will be in the mix. The Heat’s enthusiasm for a Holiday deal may depend on whether they’d be comfortable with the possibility of him exercising his player option for 2021/22.
- Zach Lowe of ESPN thinks the Holiday bidding will probably center on the Nuggets, Nets, and Warriors, along with possibly the Heat, Hawks, and Mavericks. Atlanta is interested in moving the No. 6 overall pick for a win-now veteran, but Lowe doesn’t think that pick would be enough to get it done on its own.
- Lowe is also somewhat skeptical that the Warriors would give up the No. 2 pick for “a 30-year-old who has never made an All-NBA team,” though he acknowledges he might be wrong — especially if New Orleans is willing to send back the No. 13 pick or take on Andrew Wiggins‘ contract.
- Responding to the Holiday trade rumors on Wednesday, Pelicans president of basketball operations David Griffin‘s comments were somewhat opaque (link via Oleh Kosel of The Bird Writes). However, Griffin did seem to confirm that the team is listening to inquires on Holiday.
Toronto’s Serge Ibaka would be the ideal free agent addition for the Clippers, but that can only happen if he’s willing to accept a discount to remain with a contending team, writes Jovan Buha of The Athletic. Ibaka is a better-than-average three-point shooter at 38.5% and a strong defender both at the rim and on the perimeter. Buha sees him as an improvement over Montrezl Harrell in spacing the floor, rebounding and on defense.
However, the Clippers are limited to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which is expected to fall between $9MM and $10MM. He’s likely to see better offers, but Ibaka has played on winning teams for nearly his entire career and may value the chance to contend for a title in L.A.
If the Clippers can’t land Ibaka, Buha sees Miami’s Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder as alternatives. Dragic is masterful on the pick-and-roll and capable of scoring in a variety of ways. Crowder could be a replacement for Marcus Morris if the veteran wing doesn’t re-sign.
There’s more from the Pacific Division:
- With the Pelicans talking about trading Jrue Holiday, Anthony Slater of The Athletic examines whether he makes sense for the three Pacific teams expected to be in the title hunt. Holiday would give the Clippers a secondary playmaker next to Kawhi Leonard, a need that became obvious in the playoffs, and would be part of a dangerous defensive unit alongside Leonard and Paul George. However, the Clippers are low on assets after last summer’s trade to acquire George. The Lakers are in the same position in the wake of the Anthony Davis deal. They can offer Kyle Kuzma or Alex Caruso, but Slater notes that executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin passed on both players last year. The Warriors have the No. 2 pick in the draft, but matching salaries for Holiday would be difficult, assuming the Pelicans don’t want to take back Andrew Wiggins or Draymond Green.
- Although Richaun Holmes is coming off a breakthrough year, the Kings might consider drafting a center, especially if USC’s Onyeka Okongwu is still available at No. 12, according to Jason Jones of The Athletic. Okongwu can defend on the perimeter and runs the floor, which Jones says are qualities the Kings like in their big men.
- Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype examines how the Lakers can keep their best free agents and still add a significant piece with the MLE without going over the tax apron.
Texas Tech guard Jahmi’us Ramsey and Kentucky guard Immanuel Quickley are among the prospects whom the Heat have reached out to about potential in-person workouts, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
The club only holds the No. 20 pick in this month’s draft, but is doing plenty of homework on the players who could be options in that range — Ramsey is the 35th prospect on ESPN’s big board, while Quickley – who has interviewed with Miami twice, per Jackson – ranks 42nd.
As Jackson details, the Heat have also “taken a look” at Washington forwards Jaden McDaniels and Isaiah Stewart, who are 23rd and 27th on ESPN’s board. Additionally, Miami has called to speak to Kentucky guard Ashton Hagans, who is ranked just 68th by ESPN. Hagans would likely only be an option for the Heat if they acquire a second-round pick or if he goes undrafted, Jackson notes.
The Heat were also expected to view group workouts for Minnesota big man Daniel Oturu (No. 37 on ESPN) and Arizona guard Nico Mannion (No. 25), writes Jackson. And as our JD Shaw reported on Monday, College of Charleston guard Grant Riller has interviewed with Miami as well.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- Although Jae Crowder is a Georgia native, he has made Miami his adopted hometown, having prepared for the 2012 draft in South Florida and having bought a house in Miami in 2017. As Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel writes, Crowder’s fondness for both Miami and the Heat should put the team in a good position to re-sign him this fall, even if he doesn’t give the club an “adopted-hometown discount.”
- While the Heat are accustomed to getting the most out of players who might not have thrived in other environments, Derrick Jones may be a candidate to become a more complete player and have more success with a new team if he departs in free agency, Winderman says in a Sun Sentinel mailbag.
- Ultimate Software, the company that has an advertisement patch on Heat uniforms, has merged with The Kronos Group to form the Ultimate Kronos Group, resulting in a new jersey patch for the Heat. Darren Rovell of The Action Network (Twitter link) has the details.
Heat president Pat Riley was pleased with the development of several young players this season, telling reporters at his end-of-season press conference that he was especially impressed with the improvements of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
“When we drafted Bam, we didn’t think Bam would be an All-Star this quick,” Riley said, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. “We saw a great athlete. We didn’t even know how great a person he was. When we found out the level of his character and his loyalty and being a teammate, that with his talent, we knew we had something special.”
Adebayo averaged 17.8 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game in the playoffs, with the 23-year-old showing noticeable improvements on both ends of the floor this season. As for Herro, a fearless 20-year-old who just finished his rookie season, Riley had much of the same praise for his campaign.
“[He] grew through listening and he grew through the mentorship of Udonis Haslem, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic,” Riley said. “All of those guys and the ones that came at midseason — Andre [Iguodala] and Solomon [Hill] and Kelly [Olynyk] and Meyers [Leonard] — all of these veterans took him under their wing because they saw something special there
“He got better not just as a shooter, but as a shotmaker. He got better in handling the ball. I used to see him out here on the court with our coaches that were developing him putting him through a myriad of ball-handling drills against pressure, banging him with the heavy bag, making him go to the basket and knocking him down and making sure he concentrated on finishing.
“He’s a very, very efficient offensive player. He got better as a playmaker. His vision — he started to see other plays because he could take it to the rack. He’s a great kid. He works hard and we have somebody very special in him.”
There’s more from the Eastern Conference today:
- Chris Kirschner and John Hollinger of The Athletic examine the Hawks’ best draft fits, potential trades and more. Atlanta owns the No. 6 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.
- Ira Winderman of The Sun Sentinel considers whether Kings guard De’Aaron Fox could loom as a future fallback option for the Heat when they go star-hunting. Fox averaged a career-high 21.1 points, 6.8 assists and 1.5 steals in 49 games this past season.
- Josh Robbins of The Athletic predicts which players the Magic will sign and let walk in free agency this year. Orlando finished with a 33-40 record last season, good for eighth-best in the Eastern Conference. Evan Fournier ($17.15MM) and James Ennis ($2.13MM) both hold player options for next season, with D.J. Augustin and Michael Carter-Williams set to reach unrestricted free agency. In addition, Wesley Iwundu ($2MM) and Gary Clark ($1.8MM) are eligible for qualifying offers that would make them restricted free agents, and the club must make a decision on Melvin Frazier Jr.‘s $1.66MM team option.
Heading into free agency, big man Meyers Leonard is focused less on the money and more on the opportunity, Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel writes.
Leonard, 28, started 49 of 51 regular-season games for Miami before the COVID-19 pandemic shuttered play. Once the season resumed inside the Orlando campus, Leonard’s playing time became all but non-existent as head coach Erik Spoelstra elected to use a smaller lineup.
The four-year, $41MM deal Leonard signed with Portland in 2016 concluded after his lone season in Miami. Now the opportunity to compete for a championship — just like the Heat did in Orlando this year — is the goal.
“Now, it’s not even about the money or the one year for me,” Leonard said. “I know going into free agency, what I want is to compete in the playoffs and to compete for a championship, and I want to have a significant impact.
“Whether it’s starting or coming off the bench, I’m thinking 20 to 25 minutes. I feel that I’ve shown people, no question about it, that I can be impactful on both sides of the ball every single night, and that I certainly do bring value.”
In 444 career games, Leonard has averages of 5.6 PPG and 3.9 RPG as a primary bench piece. And while he suggested he may be open to a new opportunity, he made sure to mention his affinity for the Heat.
“What I do know is I truly love winning and I really loved being part of this quote, unquote Heat culture, I really did,” he said.
Victor Oladipo likes playing for the Pacers and would be happy to stay in Indiana on a big new contract, but if he changes teams, the Heat are expected to be atop his wish list, a source tells Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
This is hardly the first time Oladipo has been linked to Miami — a series of summer reports indicated that the Heat would likely be a threat to sign the two-time All-Star away from Indiana in 2021, and there has been ongoing chatter since then. Still, it’ll be interesting to see how Miami’s Finals run this season and Oladipo’s shaky 2019/20 post-injury play impact the Heat’s desire to aggressively pursue the Pacers guard.
For now, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the Heat’s top target among 2021 free-agents-to-be, according to Jackson, who provides an extensive breakdown of other impact players – including Oladipo – the team could target if Giannis is unavailable.
Here are a few more notes on the Heat:
- The Heat recently interviewed former San Diego State point guard Malachi Flynn, Jackson writes in another story for The Miami Herald. Flynn, the No. 31 prospect on ESPN’s big board, could be an option for Miami at No. 20. He’s a hard worker who would fit in with the Heat’s culture, according to Jackson, who says one NBA evaluator compared the young guard to Fred VanVleet and believes he’s NBA-ready.
- The Heat have also scheduled an interview with Duke guard Tre Jones, who is considered a possible first-round pick, Jackson writes for The Herald. Within the story, Jackson says that Kira Lewis and Tyrese Maxey would receive strong consideration from the Heat if they’re still on the board at No. 20.
- In yet another Herald article, Jackson and Anthony Chiang consider possible replacements on the coaching staff for Dan Craig, who is leaving for a job with the Clippers. Anthony Carter, Eric Glass, and Phil Weber are identified as possibilities by the Herald duo.
Heat assistant coach Dan Craig is leaving Miami to take a job as an assistant on Tyronn Lue‘s Clippers staff, Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald confirms (via Twitter). According to Jackson, the Clippers offered more money than the Heat, and Craig hopes the role will help him eventually become an NBA head coach.
Mike Robinson of The Ball Out first reported today that Craig and former Brooklyn head coach Kenny Atkinson would be joining the Clippers as assistants.
Marc Stein of The New York Times, who revealed last week that Craig and Atkinson were drawing interest as potential additions to Lue’s staff, tweeted today that Chauncey Billups has also interviewed for an assistant coach position with the Clippers. The expectation in coaching circles is that Craig, Atkinson, and Billups will all formally finalize deals to join the Clips, Stein adds (via Twitter).
Shams Charania of The Athletic first reported back on October 15 when Lue was promoted by the Clippers that Billups would join him in Los Angeles. Billups was still a candidate in the Pacers’ head coaching search at that time. Now that Indiana has gone in another direction, hiring Nate Bjorkgren, it appears Billups is on track to complete an agreement with L.A.
Craig, who reportedly received head coaching interest from the Bulls and Pacers this year, has been with the Heat for the better part of two decades after initially being hired as a video intern in 2003. He has been an assistant on Erik Spoelstra‘s staff since 2012, spending one year during that time (2015/16) as the head coach of the Sioux Falls Skyforce, Miami’s G League affiliate.
Like Craig, Atkinson generated some head coaching interest around the NBA this summer, having been linked to the Knicks, Rockets, Bulls, and Pelicans jobs. The former Knicks and Hawks assistant was hired by the Nets as their head coach of the Nets in 2016 and held that role until he was let go by the organization in March of this year. He compiled a 118-190 (.383) record in Brooklyn as he led the franchise through a challenging rebuild.
As for Billups, he’s a former NBA Finals MVP who expressed interest this year in becoming a head coach. Since his retirement as a player, Billups had reportedly “toyed with the idea” of getting into coaching, and it appears he’ll do so alongside Lue, a longtime friend with whom he shares an agent. A report in August suggested that Billups thought working on Lue’s staff might help him eventually land a head coaching job — he apparently has that in common with Craig.
Assuming the Clippers officially lock up Craig, Atkinson, and Billups, they’ll have gone a long way toward putting together Lue’s staff for 2020/21. Former NBA head coach Larry Drew is also expected to be hired by the Clippers as an assistant coach.