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Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Odds For 2020/21

October 13th, 2020 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat lost just three games during the first three rounds against their playoff opponents in the East en route to an NBA Finals appearance this year, eliminating three of the top four seeds in the conference in the process. However, Miami’s impressive postseason run hasn’t made the team the favorite to come out of the East in 2021, according to oddsmakers.

At BetOnline.ag, the Heat are listed at +450 to win the Eastern Conference in ’21, meaning you’d win $450 on a $100 wager should Miami repeat as conference champs. The Bucks (+375), Celtics (+425), and Nets (+425) are currently considered more likely to represent the East in next year’s NBA Finals.

The rest of the odds to win the East next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

  • Raptors: +750
  • Sixers: +1200
  • Bulls: +3300
  • Hawks: +3300
  • Pacers: +3300
  • Wizards: +3300
  • Magic: +10000
  • Cavaliers: +12500
  • Knicks: +12500
  • Pistons: +12500
  • Hornets: +17500

It’s obviously way too early to forecast the outcome of the 2020/21 season with any confidence. The draft and free agency are still to come, and we don’t know yet which teams will make major splashes on the trade market. If Victor Oladipo is dealt from Indiana to another Eastern team, for example, it could significantly change the conference’s outlook for next season.

Still, anticipated roster moves are at least somewhat baked into BetOnline’s current odds — if the Pacers had a ton of cap room to use this offseason and Oladipo and Myles Turner weren’t viewed as potential trade candidates, it’s a safe bet that they wouldn’t be listed alongside lottery teams Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington on the list above.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the East for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Bucks be considered the favorites to win the East? Should the Heat be listed higher than fourth among Eastern teams? Are the Nets or other teams being overvalued? Are the Pacers or other teams being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the East next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Eastern Conference in 2020/21!

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Heat Notes: Dragic, Butler, Offseason Decisions

October 12th, 2020 at 10:33am CST by Luke Adams

Although Heat point guard Goran Dragic was active for Game 6 and was able to play 19 minutes on Sunday, he was limited by his torn left plantar fascia. After the game, he told reporters that the injury – which he suffered in Game 1 of the Finals – won’t require surgery and that it should heal on its own now that he has plenty of time for rest and rehab.

“The one thing I didn’t have (until now) was time,” Dragic told reporters, including Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald (Twitter link).

Dragic will be a free agent this offseason and will be able to sign with any team. However, his comments after the game suggested he’ll be looking to re-sign with the Heat. In a message to fans on Twitter, he said of the Heat, “What we’ve built is something special and we’ll be back!”

Heat star Jimmy Butler, for one, would welcome Dragic back with open arms. Butler said after the game that he wishes he could play with the veteran point guard “forever,” according to Jackson (Twitter link).

Here’s more on the Heat:

  • Despite making the Finals and getting to within two games of a championship as a No. 5 seed, Butler said on Sunday night that the team fell short of its goals for the season. “I told them that I would win them (a title) and I didn’t hold up my end of the bargain, so that means I got to do it next year,” Butler said, per Nick Friedell of ESPN. “I told Coach Pat (Riley), I told Coach Spo (Erik Spoelstra) I’m here to win one. I didn’t do my job, so moving forward, I got to hold up my end of the bargain.” Butler also reiterated a point he has made in the past, stating after the loss that playing for the Heat is “where I belong.”
  • While the Heat’s magical Walt Disney World run was cut short a couple wins shy of a title, the team is well-positioned to enjoy more success in the coming years, writes Manny Navarro of The Athletic.
  • In an Insider-only piece for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks previews the Heat’s upcoming offseason, including the team’s decisions on a possible rookie scale extension for Bam Adebayo and new contracts for veteran free agents Jae Crowder and Dragic.
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Heat Notes: Butler, Robinson, Spoelstra, Campus

October 11th, 2020 at 6:13pm CST by JD Shaw

Heat guard Jimmy Butler has cemented his status as a respected star and leader regardless of the NBA Finals outcome, Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com writes.

Butler, who’s in his first season with Miami, has guided his team to a 14-6 postseason record, trailing the Lakers 3-2 in the Finals despite coping with key injuries to Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo since Game 1 of the series. He willed his team to victory in Game 5, pouring in 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in over 47 minutes.

“His will to win is remarkable,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said postgame. “To do that in 47-plus minutes and take the challenge on at the other end — every young player coming into this league should study footage on Jimmy Butler.”

Miami has surprised the basketball world these playoffs, sweeping the Pacers in round one, upsetting the Bucks 4-1 in round two and defeating a star-studded Celtics team 4-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals. The team has generated its momentum behind the likes of Butler, Dragic and Adebayo, plus the emergence of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson.

There’s more out of Miami tonight:

  • The Lakers learned in Game 5 that Duncan Robinson can be exceptionally deadly from three-point range once he catches fire, Jeff Zilgitt of USA TODAY writes. Robinson scored a career-high 26 points on 7-for-13 shooting from deep on Friday, further solidifying himself as one of the league’s elite shooters. “Obviously, they’ve done a really good job scheming to take things away, but for me, it’s just about finding a way – whatever it takes to get to my spots,” Robinson said. “If you continue to do that, you’ll have your openings. You’ll be able to find spots here and there. If I catch the ball and can see the rim, it’s going up, pretty much.”
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Goran Dragic Listed As Active For Game 6

October 11th, 2020 at 5:40pm CST by JD Shaw

Heat guard Goran Dragic (foot) is being listed as active for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Sunday, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel tweets, adding that the 35-year-old will be available off the bench.

This marks the first time Dragic has been active since suffering a plantar fascia tear in Game 1, leaving the contest in noticeable pain after landing on his foot. The Heat also lost Bam Adebayo during that contest due to a strained neck, though the 23-year-old later made his return to the lineup in Game 4.

It’s still unclear whether Dragic, who’s played a key role with the Heat during the playoffs, will see much action on Sunday. Prior to being injured, he was averaging 19.9 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game in the postseason, taking pressure off Jimmy Butler while offering more ball-handling.

“He wants to be out there with his heart and soul,” coach Erik Spoelstra said, as relayed by Winderman (Twitter link).

With Dragic now active, the Heat will look to tie the NBA Finals and force a potential Game 7 on Tuesday. Lakers star Anthony Davis (heel contusion) is also set to play after previously being listed as probable.

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Poll: What Will Be The Outcome Of The Finals?

October 11th, 2020 at 3:36pm CST by JD Shaw

When the Lakers and Heat tipped off Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday, several fans and league observers were prepared to crown the Lakers with their 17th championship in franchise history. Fast forward to today, and the Heat are now one win away from being one win away.

Miami will try to tie the series in Game 6 on Sunday night, with a potential Game 7 hanging in the balance on Tuesday. It’s a challenging feat for a club likely to be missing Goran Dragic (listed doubtful with a plantar fascia tear), but the Heat have embraced the identity of a team known for overcoming obstacles. They were propelled by Jimmy Butler in Game 5, who finished with an astounding 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in over 47 minutes of action.

“Nothing,” Butler said of what he had left once the game ended, as relayed by Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.“I left it all out there on the floor along with my guys, and that’s how we’re going to have to play from here on out. Like I always say, it’s win or win for us. But this is the position that we’re in. We like it this way. We got two more in a row to get.”

For the Lakers, their fate could rest on the level of production they receive from players outside of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If the supporting cast goes down, the team could very well go down with it. Rajon Rondo, Alex Caruso and Markieff Morris have all shown signs of promise off the bench this series, but no game has been more important than this.

Davis is listed as probable with a right heel contusion, while Miami’s Bam Adebayo has continued to play through a neck strain. Other players remain mentally and physically fatigued, but the NBA’s longest season to date will ultimately come to a close on Sunday or Tuesday.

What do you think? What will be the outcome of the NBA Finals? Do the Heat have enough left in the tank to force a Game 7 and potentially come back from a 3-1 deficit, or will the Lakers take control and finish the series in Game 6 or Game 7? Vote in our poll, then take to the comments section below!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
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Heat Notes: Adebayo, Offseason, Butler, L2M Report

October 11th, 2020 at 10:58am CST by Arthur Hill

Miami’s surprising postseason success may change the long-term plan for the franchise, writes John Hollinger of The Athletic. The Heat have been focused on maximizing cap room for the free agent class of 2021, but their run to the Finals may alter their thinking, not only regarding free agent such as Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder, but for a possible extension for Bam Adebayo.

Adebayo will be eligible for a maximum extension during the offseason, and the team had been expected to delay a new deal with the 23-year-old until next summer. His cap hold will be just $15MM, preserving enough room to chase an elite free agent. However, Hollinger thinks Adebayo’s All-Star season may make it too risky to let him get to restricted free agency.

Even a “low” max deal that starts at 25% of the cap would take the Heat out of the 2021 free agent sweepstakes. But Hollinger notes that the front office didn’t have cap room when it acquired Jimmy Butler on a max salary last summer and suggests that Pat Riley might pursue a similar strategy next year, hoping the team’s young talent will enable another sign-and-trade for a top free agent.

There’s more on the Heat:

  • In the same piece, Hollinger offers a suggestion for Miami’s offseason that would allow the team to compete for a title again next year without altering its road map for the future. The Heat are about $45MM below the projected tax line for 2020/21 with a mid-level exception that could be used to add a power forward such as Paul Millsap on a one-year contract with an option.  Crowder could be offered a similar deal to stay, while Dragic might get a longer-term contract with manageable yearly salaries. Hollinger adds that with Butler, Dragic and Crowder all age 30 or older, Miami’s focus should be on the present rather than the future.
  • Heat coach Erik Spoelstra believes rebuilding teams should focus on finding a player like Butler, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic. “The draft is coming up in … a month, they should study Jimmy Butler as a two-way player,” Spoelstra told reporters after Friday’s game. “He’s the ultimate competitor, and when you’re facing the ultimate competition, that’s what happens.”
  • Two controversial calls that benefited the Heat in Game 5 were both deemed correct in the league’s last-two minute report, although two others were missed that proved to be inconsequential, writes Dave McMenamin of ESPN.
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Dragic Doubtful For Game 6

October 10th, 2020 at 7:22pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum
  • Goran Dragic, the Heat‘s leading scorer heading into the NBA Finals, has been listed as doubtful to return for Game 6 from the torn left plantar fascia he suffered in Game 1, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald tweets. Dragic is coming off a five-year, $85MM contract he signed with the Heat in 2015, and will be an unrestricted free agent in the coming offseason.
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Community Shootaround: Heat Free Agents

October 10th, 2020 at 12:28pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Heat surprised virtually everyone but themselves by reaching the Finals. And with two more victories, they’ll complete their Cinderella run.

Miami is positioned to become a powerhouse for years to come if it makes the right moves. Jimmy Butler has not only cemented his status as a star player during the restart but has now established himself as a franchise player. Tyler Herro‘s performances have many NBA executives kicking themselves for passing him up in last season’s draft. He’s, of course, in the early stages of his rookie deal.

However, a big chunk of their roster is filled with players can become free agents this offseason or in 2021. Team president Pat Riley has spent the last couple of years making moves to open up plenty of salary cap room for top-level free agents next season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo at the top of the wish list.

The play of a couple of veterans during the playoff run could complicate the process, particularly Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents this fall. Dragic has only played 15 minutes during the Finals due to a foot injury but the Heat would have been eliminated in the earlier rounds if not for his steady playmaking.

Dragic has averaged 19.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.6 APG during the postseason. He set the tone for the series against Milwaukee and Boston, scoring 50 points against the Bucks in the first two games of that series and 54 against the Celtics when Miami jumped to a 2-0 lead.

Crowder was kind of an afterthought in the February trade with Memphis that brought Andre Iguodala to the Heat. Instead, he’s proven more valuable than Iguodala, averaging 12.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG in 31.6 MPG while making 34.6% of his 3s. He’s an even bigger force on the defensive end, often assigned to the opponent’s top scorer. He can switch onto much bigger frontcourt players and still hold his own.

Dragic is 34 and Crowder is 30 and this could be their last shot at landing lucrative, multi-year deals. While the Heat’s balance sheet could allow Riley to reward them in free agency, there are other considerations. Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn can become restricted free agents next summer and either one could receive a lucrative offer sheet, given their youth and production.

There’s also the overall concerns about how much the cap and luxury tax threshold could drop due to the loss of revenue during the pandemic.

That leads us to our question of the day: If Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder seek multi-year deals in free agency, should the Heat still try to re-sign them or should they continue to preserve cap space for next offseason? If they decide to sign one but not the other, which player should they pursue?

Please weigh in on this topic in the comments section. We look forward to your input.

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And-Ones: Adebayo, Olympics, NBA Foundation, Tsai

October 9th, 2020 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Although he didn’t make the final 12-man squad that took part in the 2019 World Cup, Heat center Bam Adebayo participated in Team USA’s training camp leading up to that event and received consideration to represent the U.S. in the international competition.

With the Tokyo Olympics on tap for the summer of 2021, however, another national program is hoping to recruit Adebayo away from USA Basketball, according to Colin Udoh of ESPN, who says Nigeria wants to add the big man to its Olympic roster. Adebayo’s father is Nigerian, Udoh notes.

“Having Bam in our national team is a possibility that we are considering as a federation ahead of the 2020 Olympics and beyond,” Nigeria Basketball Federation president Musa Kida said in a statement to ESPN. “We are excited about how far he has gone and what he can achieve in his career with D’Tigers if he chooses to play for Nigeria.”

Nigeria has already earned an Olympic berth and – assuming next season’s schedule allows for it – is expected to feature NBA players such as Josh Okogie, Al-Farouq Aminu, Chimezie Metu, and potentially Spencer Dinwiddie. It remains to be seen if the team will be able to land Adebayo, but he has said in the past that he’d consider Nigeria if asked. He also may be more open to the idea after being cut from last year’s Team USA roster.

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • The NBA and NBPA issued a joint press release today announcing the board of directors for the NBA Foundation, a new organization dedicated to driving “economic empowerment for Black communities through employment and career advancement.” In addition to Harrison Barnes and Tobias Harris, whose involvement was previously reported, the NBA Foundation’s board of directors will be made up of Adam Silver, Michele Roberts, and four team owners (Gayle Benson, Tony Ressler, Larry Tanenbaum, and Michael Jordan).
  • As we relayed earlier today, China’s CCTV has lifted its year-long ban on NBA broadcasts, citing the league’s role in fighting COVID-19 in China as a primary reason for that decision. NetsDaily suggests Nets owner Joe Tsai may have played a key part in that effort, having sent a $3.7MM donation to China in February to help fight the pandemic.
  • In an Insider-only article for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks lists the trade assets held by all 30 teams, including moveable players, surplus draft picks, and trade exceptions.
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Goran Dragic To Remain Sidelined For Game 5

October 9th, 2020 at 3:49pm CST by Luke Adams

Heat point guard Goran Dragic won’t play in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday night, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). The news had been expected, as Dragic was previously listed as doubtful.

Game 5 will be the fourth consecutive contest Dragic has missed since suffering a torn left plantar fascia in the first game of the NBA Finals. He acknowledged earlier this week that he was still experiencing a lot of pain and wasn’t sure whether he’d be able to return before the end of the series.

With the Lakers one win away from the title, it’s possible that this was Dragic’s last chance to get back on the court in 2020, but if the Heat can extend the series, he’ll presumably do all he can to play on Sunday.

With Dragic still on the shelf, the Heat will continue to lean heavily on rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro.

Nunn has averaged 23.7 minutes per game in the Finals after not playing at all during the Heat’s final three games against Boston. Herro has served as Miami’s de facto starting point guard in place of Dragic since Game 1, logging 38.9 MPG in the last three contests.

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