- Heat team president Pat Riley will hold his first 2020 media presser this Friday afternoon, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link).
NBA agents are generally in agreement that the 2020 offseason will be an unusual one due to the coronavirus pandemic and its ripple effect, but they don’t all agree on what exactly the offseason will look like.
Ben Standig, Mike Vorkunov, and other writers from The Athletic conducted a survey of 20 player agents to get their thoughts on the coming offseason and state of the NBA. And while some of those agents believe financial concerns will limit player movement this fall, others believe there will still be plenty of movement — even if it doesn’t happen in free agency.
“My fear is there will be a lot of teams and ownership groups that sit out free agency,” one agent said. “… In terms of player movement, I think there will be a lot. Not just signing guys. Nobody wants to pay the tax. Everybody is going to try to clear space for 2021. I can definitely see a sizeable amount of player movement. But not a lot of dollars spent.”
One agent who spoke to The Athletic suggested that some teams will be in cost-cutting mode and, for financial reasons, may move players they wouldn’t have traded in a normal year. However, another agent believes there will still be plenty of clubs willing to spend to compete for the postseason and for a title.
“Teams want to win and they’re going to spend to win,” the agent said. “Ultimately, as we saw with Denver, there’s a lot of teams within striking distance of contention and they’re not going to be cheap. The Clippers fired a coach with two years on his deal. We’re going to be fine.”
As for how many NBA franchises will be in legitimate financial peril during the coming year, one agent is skeptical that any will actually be in trouble.
“They’re going to blow so much smoke up our a– about how bad the business model is and everything like that, but Minnesota is going to sell for $1.5 billion and it’s the worst market, as far as basketball,” the agent said. “They sold 18 years ago for $88MM and they’re going to sell for $1.5 billion? You can’t tell (me) you have a bad business.
“There’s going be revenues that are greatly reduced, but I would say to any of these teams that feel like these businesses that they can’t pour cash into to carry it through this rough spot, they should sell. Because they have opportunities. We’ll find them a buyer in a month.”
Here are a few of the other most interesting takeaways from The Athletic’s agent survey:
- Thunder point guard Chris Paul is the highest-profile player that most agents expected to be traded this offseason, while the Sixers are considered the team most in need of a major roster move. “Philly is at the point where it’s a make or break year for just about everybody,” one agent said.
- Of the 19 agents who weighed in on the subject, 18 said they expect Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo to remain in Milwaukee beyond his current contract.
- LaMelo Ball comfortably received the most votes as 2020’s most intriguing draft prospect, but he’s viewed as a somewhat risky investment. “I think he has such a high ceiling but the difference from his top to bottom is the biggest of anyone in the draft,” one agent said. Another offered the following assessment: “That could go really good or really bad.”
- One agent said he has “never heard less enthusiasm” from teams that have high picks in this year’s draft.
- One agent speculated that centers will be hit hardest by teams’ financial limitations this offseason, since clubs are focusing on players who can defend several positions. Another said that he thinks many clubs may prioritize veterans over young prospects, since cost-conscious teams may not want to use back-of-the-roster spots on guys who won’t play at all.
- Thunder GM Sam Presti easily received the most votes as the NBA’s “smartest” team executive, but Pat Riley of the Heat and Masai Ujiri of the Raptors got more votes when agents were asked which exec they’d want to hire if they were running a franchise.
The Heat are expected to be among the teams with interest in free agent forward Jerami Grant this offseason, says Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. If Miami operates as an over-the-cap team, landing Grant would be tricky, since he’s expected to receive offers worth more than the mid-level exception.
Grant could be a more viable option for the Heat if the team loses some of its top free agents and has the opportunity to open up cap space. Even if Miami remains over the cap, we saw a year ago with the acquisition of Jimmy Butler that the front office is willing to get creative with sign-and-trades when cap room is unavailable.
However, Grant will almost certainly require a long-term investment, so presumably he’d only become a realistic target for the Heat if the club decides it no longer needs to preserve max-salary space for 2021.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- The Heat requested a Zoom interview with former Maryland forward Jalen Smith, Jackson reports in the same Miami Herald story. Smith is currently the No. 20 prospect on ESPN’s big board, while the Heat hold the No. 20 overall pick in this year’s draft.
- Several aspects of the Heat offseason will be out of the team’s control, according to Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel, who writes that the team will have to adjust to the new salary cap projection, wait to see if free agents like Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder get aggressive multiyear offers from rival suitors, and potentially modify their plans for both 2020 and 2021 if Giannis Antetokounmpo signs an extension with Milwaukee.
- Miami assistants Dan Craig and Chris Quinn reportedly had strong interviews with Indiana, but the Pacers went in another direction, hiring Nate Bjorkgren as their new head coach. That’s good news for the Heat, who should retain Craig and Quinn for 2020/21.
The Pistons and Bulls are among the teams expected to have interest in free agent Heat swingman Derrick Jones this offseason, a source tells Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
Jackson also identifies Atlanta as a potential suitor for Jones, which is something we’ve heard before. Shams Charania reported last week that Jones is expected to receive interest from the Hawks, Cavaliers, and Hornets, among other clubs.
Jones is coming off a season in which he averaged 8.5 PPG and 3.9 RPG in 59 games (23.3 MPG) for the eventual Eastern Conference champions. He’s also a strong perimeter defender, having held the opponents he guarded in 2019/20 to a field goal percentage of just 40.8%, according to Jackson.
Jones fell out of Miami’s rotation during the postseason, but Jackson explains that a number of factors played a part in that decision. Health was a big one, as Jones contracted COVID-19 in June, suffered a neck injury in a scary fall during the seeding games, then sprained his ankle in the first round of the playoffs. Erik Spoelstra‘s decision to ride veterans Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala as he shortened his rotation also helped push Jones out of the mix.
The Heat’s top priorities in free agency this fall figure to be re-signing Crowder and Goran Dragic to new deals, and it’s possible Jones’ role reduction in the playoffs will dampen his enthusiasm for a reunion with the club. If that’s the case, he should have plenty of options, as Charania’s and Jackson’s report suggest. His next contract seems unlikely to exceed the mid-level, so over-the-cap teams will be in play.
While I expect Jones to generate interest from some playoff teams, it’s probably not a coincidence that all of his reported suitors so far are younger clubs coming off lottery seasons. At age 23, the former UNLV standout projects to be one of the NBA’s youngest unrestricted free agents this offseason, and he’ll likely have a better chance of playing a regular role on a roster that’s not loaded with veterans.
Warriors big man Marquese Chriss could see his role expand offensively as a passer, Anthony Slater of The Athletic speculates. Chriss showed off his versatility and vision during a recent intrasquad scrimmage. Alen Smailagić doesn’t seem ready to break into the team’s rotation and he’s destined to spend another season in the G League, Slater adds.
We have more from the Pacific Division:
- The Hawks, Bucks, Suns and Heat are among the teams that could be interested in Kings free agent swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic, in the view of James Ham of NBC Sports Bay Area. All but Milwaukee have the cap space to hand Bodganovic an attractive offer sheet. With the recent changes in the front office, it’s more uncertain whether Sacramento will match an offer sheet or whether it would rather pursue a sign-and-trade.
- While the Kings have a quality young point guard in De’Aaron Fox, it’s not out of the question they’ll draft another one with their lottery pick, Jason Jones of The Athletic writes. RJ Hampton, Kira Lewis and Cole Anthony are some of the point guard prospects Sacramento might consider with the No. 12 overall pick.
- Tyronn Lue has the right track record for a championship contender like the Clippers, Mirjam Swanson of the Orange County Register opines. After winning a title in Cleveland, the new Clippers head coach has already established a track record of cultivating chemistry by holding stars accountable, maximizing role players and making smart strategic moves, Swanson adds.
Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s decision on a supermax extension will have a wide-ranging effect on this offseason and the summer of 2021, writes Tim Bontemps of ESPN. Several teams that are saving cap space to make a run at the two-time MVP next year would be more likely to spend right away if he accepts an offer from the Bucks. The Raptors would be more willing to spend big to keep free agent guard Fred VanVleet, while the Heat and Mavericks might look to make significant moves right away.
Bontemps has heard from multiple sources that Milwaukee won’t panic if Antetokoumpo turns down the extension. Instead of trying to trade him before he reaches free agency, the Bucks will look for roster upgrades to give him a better chance to compete for a title before he hits the open market. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski has reported that Milwaukee’s ownership won’t mind adding payroll to improve, so the team could be actively seeking trades before the start of next season.
There’s more on potential offseason moves, all courtesy of Bontemps:
- Victor Oladipo is also eligible for an extension, but it might be tricky for him and the Pacers to arrive at a mutually acceptable figure. The team can offer a new deal that starts at around $26MM — 120% of his salary for next season. However, Oladipo could potentially make much more as an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and may use the upcoming season to show that he’s fully recovered from a torn quadriceps tendon. As a small market team, Indiana might decide to seek a deal now involving Oladipo rather than risk losing him for no return, Bontemps notes. The Pacers already have Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis under long-term deals and may be wary of giving another one to Oladipo.
- VanVleet will be the top free agent this offseason, and the Raptors are hoping to keep him without compromising any chance they have at Antetokounmpo. ESPN’s Bobby Marks reports that Toronto would like to reach a new deal that doesn’t exceed four years at $80MM. The Pistons, Knicks, and Hawks all appear to be options to maximize his value if VanVleet doesn’t mind leaving a contender for a rebuilding team.
- Atlanta goes into free agency with the most money to spend ($42MM), giving general manager Travis Schlenk an advantage as he looks to add to his core of young talent. There aren’t any franchise players on this year’s market, but Bontemps mentions Davis Bertans, Danilo Gallinari and Joe Harris as possibilities, along with VanVleet.
- In the wake of playoff disappointments and coaching changes, the Clippers and Sixers could both be looking for roster shakeups. According to Bontemps, L.A. may try to move Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and Ivica Zubac or find sign-and trade deals involving Marcus Morris or Montrezl Harrell, while Philadelphia’s top priority is to unload Al Horford‘s contract.
Kelly Olynyk‘s $13.1MM player option decision could potentially limit the Heat‘s available cap space or assist the club in the trade market, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel writes.
Olynyk, who played meaningful minutes off the bench this season, could choose to exercise the option and return to Miami for a fourth straight season or test free agency. Miami is known for being active in trade discussions, however, and could shop Olynyk if he opts in. Last year’s sign-and-trade for All-Star Jimmy Butler nearly included the veteran forward.
“I mean, on that night I thought I was going to Dallas. I thought it was over,” he said. “Not over, but I thought it was done, that it was a done deal. Like when I heard, people were calling me, I thought it was done.
“And then it unraveled or got revoked. I’m not sure how it went down, but I stayed in Miami.”
The Heat wound up sending Hassan Whiteside to Portland, Josh Richardson to Philadelphia and a first-round pick to the Clippers, bringing over Butler, Meyers Leonard and cash considerations in return. Olynyk was once again a key cog in the team’s rotation this season, averaging 8.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 19.4 minutes while shooting 41% from deep.
“You never know, the grass could be greener, or there could be no grass over there,” Olynyk said, acknowledging his name could still appear in future trade rumors. “So you really have no clue. And that’s in everything in life, not just basketball, not just sports.”
There’s more from the Southeast Division today:
- Winderman examines in a separate story whether the Heat should pursue Paul George if the Clippers make him available in trade talks. Los Angeles had an underwhelming end to their 2019/20 season by losing to Denver in the second round, with George averaging 20.2 points per game on 40% shooting in the playoffs. The Heat’s interest in landing a third star is well-documented, as Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo (potential free agent in 2021) currently sits atop the team’s future wish list.
- Fred Katz of The Athletic evaluates multiple trade proposals for the Wizards. Washington is set to have a healthy John Wall, Bradley Beal, Thomas Bryant and others next season, sporting a diverse mix of veterans and young players.
- Chris Kirschner of The Athletic examines hypothetical trade scenarios for the Hawks, a team seeking wing depth around the likes of Trae Young, John Collins and Clint Capela. Atlanta finished with the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference at 20-47 last season.
Heat assistant Dan Craig impressed in his interview for the Pacers’ head coaching job on Friday, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets.
Pelicans associate head coach Chris Finch still remains the favorite for the Indiana job, Jackson notes, with Miami assistant Chris Quinn also interviewing for the position. In addition, former Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni is reportedly in the mix as well.
The Pacers fired Nate McMillan in August after being swept by the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. The team accrued a 45-28 record this season, good for fourth-best in the East, but hasn’t won a playoff series since 2014.
Craig has been an assistant with the Heat for eight years. He started with the franchise in 2003 as a video intern, working his way up through the organization over time — much like current Heat coach Erik Spoelstra.
Here are some other notes from the Eastern Conference tonight:
- Nolan Jensen of Nets Daily examines how Joe Harris‘ free agency could play out with the team. Harris is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent and would provide an off-ball threat around Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant next season, though it’s unclear how much money the team is willing to spend to retain him. “Joe is a guy who is always in the gym,” teammate Caris LeVert said this season. “He’s always trying to get better. He’s always watching film. His maturation and his development obviously hasn’t been a huge surprise, especially for a lot of us who see him work each and every single day,” he said. “It’s especially good to see in games, but we know what Joe is capable of. We know how hard he works. It’s great to see that pay off, especially down the stretch of a game like that.”
- The Raptors could target a number of free-agent wings this offseason, Blake Murphy of The Athletic writes. Toronto has multiple high-level free agents of its own, including Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka, but the team could show interest in players such as Harris, Jae Crowder and Kent Bazemore.
- Chris Kirschner of The Athletic interviewed Hawks assistant general manager Landry Fields, touching on subjects such as scouting, his job with the team and more. Atlanta named Fields as assistant GM earlier this month, with the former NBA player previously serving as GM of the Austin Spurs.
The expectation heading into the 2020 offseason is that the Heat will prefer to wait on a new deal for Bam Adebayo, since signing him to a maximum-salary extension would cut into the team’s available cap room for 2021. Miami could maximize that space by keeping Adebayo’s more modest RFA cap hold on the books for 2021, then eventually going over the cap to re-sign him.
Adebayo could get the same max contract whether he signs it this offseason or waits until 2021, but if he’d rather lock it in sooner rather than later, it might become an awkward situation for the Heat, writes Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. In Jackson’s view, Miami actually may have had more leverage to ask Adebayo to wait when there was a perception that the team needed another star to become championship contenders. After this year’s Finals appearance, that argument is more tenuous.
The Heat’s plan is to go “all-in” for Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021 if the Bucks star reaches free agency, per Shams Charania of The Athletic. If Antetokounmpo agrees to an extension with Milwaukee before then, the Heat may not feel as compelled to hold onto their ’21 cap room, which would lessen the need to wait on Adebayo’s next contract.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- Unrestricted free agent wing Derrick Jones is expected to receive interest from the Cavaliers, Hornets, and Hawks, among others, sources tell Charania. At just 23 years old, Jones is an unusually young UFA and still has room to develop, which explains why several rebuilding teams will likely kick the tires.
- There’s mutual interest in a new deal between Goran Dragic and the Heat, according to Charania, who says the veteran point guard will have multiple suitors.
- If the Heat are only willing to offer one-year contracts this offseason, Dragic and Jae Crowder may have to decide whether they prefer to remain in Miami or seek longer-term security, writes Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. “I’m going to obviously give it thought on both sides — having security and my comfort with this organization,” Crowder told Winderman. “So, hopefully, it all comes together from both sides. And that’s what I really want to do.”
- Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald examines how the Heat could theoretically re-sign Dragic and Crowder to lucrative one-year contracts while also adding a quality player with the mid-level exception — and staying out of tax territory.
The Heat lost just three games during the first three rounds against their playoff opponents in the East en route to an NBA Finals appearance this year, eliminating three of the top four seeds in the conference in the process. However, Miami’s impressive postseason run hasn’t made the team the favorite to come out of the East in 2021, according to oddsmakers.
At BetOnline.ag, the Heat are listed at +450 to win the Eastern Conference in ’21, meaning you’d win $450 on a $100 wager should Miami repeat as conference champs. The Bucks (+375), Celtics (+425), and Nets (+425) are currently considered more likely to represent the East in next year’s NBA Finals.
The rest of the odds to win the East next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:
- Raptors: +750
- Sixers: +1200
- Bulls: +3300
- Hawks: +3300
- Pacers: +3300
- Wizards: +3300
- Magic: +10000
- Cavaliers: +12500
- Knicks: +12500
- Pistons: +12500
- Hornets: +17500
It’s obviously way too early to forecast the outcome of the 2020/21 season with any confidence. The draft and free agency are still to come, and we don’t know yet which teams will make major splashes on the trade market. If Victor Oladipo is dealt from Indiana to another Eastern team, for example, it could significantly change the conference’s outlook for next season.
Still, anticipated roster moves are at least somewhat baked into BetOnline’s current odds — if the Pacers had a ton of cap room to use this offseason and Oladipo and Myles Turner weren’t viewed as potential trade candidates, it’s a safe bet that they wouldn’t be listed alongside lottery teams Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington on the list above.
So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the East for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.
Should the Bucks be considered the favorites to win the East? Should the Heat be listed higher than fourth among Eastern teams? Are the Nets or other teams being overvalued? Are the Pacers or other teams being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the East next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Eastern Conference in 2020/21!