- The Mavericks had to beat out the Heat and Pelicans to sign Dorian Finney-Smith as an undrafted free agent in 2016, per Lowe. The three-year deal with a $100K guarantee was “probably more than the Mavs wanted to offer,” since Finney-Smith seemed at the time like a long shot to make the regular season roster, but it turned into a great investment.
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For most NBA players in contract years, their on-court performances during the 2019/20 season will go a long way toward determining what sort of offers they’ll get this offseason when they reach the open market. And there are a number of players around the league who have increased their value significantly with their play in ’19/20, who now figure to do better than initially expected in free agency as a result.
Today, we’ll shine a spotlight on some of those players from the Eastern Conference, identifying five 2020 free-agents-to-be who have improved their stock with their play this season. Let’s dive in…
Fred VanVleet, PG (Raptors): VanVleet’s value was already on the rise last summer as a result of his red-hot shooting in the final two rounds of the 2019 playoffs, but he has taken his game to another level this season. Having averaged 11.0 PPG last year, VanVleet has bumped that number to 17.6 PPG in 2019/20, adding 6.6 APG and an impressive .388 3PT% on increased volume. Although Kyle Lowry remains the Raptors’ starting point guard, VanVleet has started alongside him or – when Lowry was injured – in place of him in every single one of his 48 games this season, alleviating any concerns that he’s just a sixth man. After All-Stars Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram, he’ll be one of the most sought-after players on the market.- Davis Bertans, PF (Wizards): Like VanVleet, Bertans had shown his potential in previous seasons before getting a chance to take on an increased role in ’19/20. And like VanVleet, he hasn’t sacrificed any efficiency as he has taken on those added responsibilities. Bertans is the best 6’10” shooter in the league, with a .424 3PT% on 8.7 attempts per game, and while he’s not exactly an elite rim protector, he isn’t a major liability on defense either. After earning $7MM this season, Bertans could double that annual salary on a multiyear contract. The Wizards, who turned down trade offers for him at the deadline, are very interested in retaining him.
- Christian Wood, F/C (Pistons): After bouncing around on minimum-salary contracts and waiver claims during his first three NBA seasons, Wood enjoyed a breakout year in Detroit, averaging 13.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG in a part-time role (21.4 MPG). Those numbers jumped to 22.8 PPG and 9.9 RPG following Andre Drummond‘s departure in February. And after making just 13 three-pointers in his first 51 NBA games, Wood knocked down nearly one per game in 2019/20, at a 38.6% rate. While he probably won’t get any massive offers, a deal in the range of the full mid-level exception seems realistic.
- Evan Fournier, G/F (Magic): One of the beneficiaries of the 2016 cap spike, Fournier earned $17.15MM this past season and has a player option worth the same amount for 2020/21. Given how uncertain the NBA’s salary cap situation is at the moment, it’s possible Fournier won’t exceed that salary on the open market and could decide to simply opt in. Still, his stock is higher now than it was a year ago — his 18.8 PPG represented a career high, as did his .599 TS%. It was a much-needed bounce-back performance for Fournier after he endured perhaps the worst shooting season of his career in 2018/19.
- Derrick Jones, G/F (Heat): Jones’ numbers don’t jump off the page like the ones put up by some other players on this list, but Erik Spoelstra‘s confidence in the young swingman reflects his value to the Heat. Despite the arrival of Jimmy Butler, the emergence of youngsters like Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn, and the midseason additions of veterans such as Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder, Jones was a consistent part of the rotation all season long and became a starter prior to the hiatus. He averaged a career-high 24.5 minutes per game and was one of the club’s most reliable defenders. A more consistent three-point shot would boost Jones’ value further, but his age (23), athleticism, and versatility will make him an intriguing target this offseason, especially for rebuilding teams.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Whenever the 2019/20 season eventually ends and the ’20 offseason begins, Heat swingman Derrick Jones will become an unrestricted free agent. While Jones insists he hasn’t thought much about his free agency, he recently said that he’d like to remain in Miami for as long as possible, as Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel relays.
“I want to be here my whole career,” Jones said. “If I could have that and we could come to an agreement with the Heat, I’m with it. I just want to be here.”
Veteran point guard Goran Dragic, who is also facing unrestricted free agency this year, expressed a similar sentiment, admitting that he’s barely thought about his contract status amid the coronavirus pandemic, but suggesting that a return to the Heat would be a good outcome, per Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.
“We like it here,” Dragic said of Miami. “It has been fun. It’s a nice place to live, the kids are going to school here. So definitely this would be one of the options to be high on our list. Like I said, you don’t know what the future holds, how the talks are going to go and we’ll see. But I’m confident that we’re going to choose the best situation for our family.”
While the Heat would presumably like to retain both Jones and Dragic, they also want to keep enough cap flexibility to potentially make a run at a top free agent like Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021. Additionally, the Bulls are reportedly keeping a close eye on both Jones and Dragic, so they – or another team – might try to make a play for one or both.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- Andre Fernandez and John Hollinger of The Athletic take an in-depth look at potential next steps for the Heat, with Hollinger suggesting that a forward/center who can shoot – and who would be open to a lucrative one-year deal – might be the most logical target for the club this offseason. Hollinger identifies Danilo Gallinari, Paul Millsap, Marcus Morris, and Serge Ibaka as some possible candidates.
- If the NBA’s hiatus results in a reduced luxury-tax threshold for 2020/21, that could be problematic for the Heat, especially if they want to re-sign several of their own free agents, including Dragic, Jones, Jae Crowder, and Meyers Leonard, as Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald explains.
- Based on the current NBA standings, the Heat will hold the No. 23 pick in the draft, which figures to present the team with a plethora of options, according to Ira Winderman of The Sun Sentinel. “What I’ve heard is the pick at 23 or 22 is the same pick at 35,” one NBA scout told Winderman. “It’s top heavy. It’s a bad draft. There’s a gray range once you get past the number up there in the early teens.”
A Heat spokesperson said on Monday that assistant general manager Adam Simon – who also serves as the team’s VP, basketball operations – will be remaining with the franchise, according to reports from Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald and Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel (Twitter link).
Simon was one of a handful of executives rumored to be drawing interest from the Bulls, who are looking to hire a new head of basketball operations. Chicago has reportedly been keeping a close eye on Miami’s office structure and had Simon high on its wish list, but the team won’t get a chance to interview with the veteran Heat executive.
In some cases, when a team wants to keep an executive who is drawing interest from a rival club, that exec receives a promotion and/or a raise. It’s not clear yet if that will be the case for Simon, who grew up in South Florida and is highly regarded by the Heat for his scouting and draft work, according to Jackson.
The Bulls’ initial list of front office targets was said to include Simon, Pacers GM Chad Buchanan, Raptors GM Bobby Webster, and Nuggets GM Arturas Karnisovas. Like Simon, Buchanan will be remaining with his current team, and there’s a belief that Webster will do the same. However, Chicago has reportedly received permission to interview Karnisovas and Jazz GM Justin Zanik.
The Bulls have received permission to interview Nuggets general manager Arturas Karnisovas, sources tell K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.
Karnisovas was one of four men said to be on Chicago’s initial wish list for a top front office executive who will have full authority on basketball decisions. It’s not clear if the Bulls will get a chance to talk to any of those four potential candidates besides Karnisovas.
Pacers GM Chad Buchanan reportedly rebuffed the Bulls’ interest, opting to remain in Indiana. And there’s plenty of speculation around the NBA that the Heat will make an effort to retain assistant GM Adam Simon, according to Johnson (Twitter link).
As for the fourth candidate, Toronto’s Bobby Webster, Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca writes that the Raptors may not grant the Bulls permission to speak to their general manager, who is under contract through 2021. With president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and head coach Nick Nurse also set to have their contracts expire after next season, and many of their players coming off the books in the coming months, the Raptors face some long-term uncertainty and might not want to risk losing a rising young executive. There’s a sense they’ll tell Chicago that “this is not a good time,” according to Grange.
Even if they’re only able to speak to one of their initial four targets, the Bulls have a longer list of candidates, per Johnson (Twitter link), who names Clippers GM Michael Winger, Clippers assistant GM Trent Redden, Magic assistant GM Matt Lloyd, and Jazz GM Justin Zanik as possibilities.
Chicago has received permission to talk to Zanik, Johnson reports, so the Utah GM will join Karnisovas in taking part in the first round of Bulls interviews.
The Bulls will conduct those meetings electronically due to the coronavirus pandemic and reportedly want to make a hire prior to the draft and free agency.
Chris Bosh will not be inducted into the Basketball Hall 0f Fame in 2020, but Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel believes Bosh will be elected in 2021. This year’s crop includes Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan, so it’s not as if there aren’t deserving candidates ahead of Bosh. Still, the former No. 4 overall pick, who won two titles with the Heat, had the résumé to be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer.
Here’s more from Miami:
- In a separate piece, Winderman wonders if any Heat executive besides VP of basketball operations Adam Simon will be coveted by Chicago as the Bulls make front office changes. As Winderman notes, Miami has given Simon promotions every time an opposing franchise attempted to pry him away from South Beach, so it’s unlikely that the organization won’t at least attempt to keep the executive in town.
- Heat big man Meyers Leonard, who was nursing a severe ankle sprain heading into the NBA’s hiatus, said he would have likely been ready to return by the postseason if it had proceeded as scheduled, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald relays. Leonard is rehabbing in his home with the assistance of the Heat’s medical team.
- Erik Spoelstra can’t envision himself coaching anywhere but with the Heat, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald relays. “Micky and Pat created this culture,” Spoelstra said of owner Micky Arison and president Pat Riley. “Some people might think they need to venture out on their own to create their own image. I do not have any of those kind of feelings. I feel a sense of purpose by carrying this culture on and this legacy to future teams. It’s what I enjoy. It’s what fills my cup up. I want to keep this going as long as I can. It doesn’t feel like a job.”
Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan is declining an opportunity to interview for the Bulls‘ top front office position, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. Buchanan decided to remain in his current job, saying he and his family have been treated well by the organization.
Toronto’s Bobby Webster, Miami’s Adam Simon and Denver’s Arturas Karnisovas are the most prominent remaining candidates for the position, Charania adds, but Chicago will continue to research other possibilities (Twitter link).
Buchanan, who is in his third year as Indiana’s GM, also worked with president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard in Portland before they both came to Indiana. His comfort level with that partnership played a strong role in the decision to stay, a source tells K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.
The Bulls are seeking permission to interview Webster, Simon and Karnisovas, according to Johnson, who adds that team president Michael Reinsdorf hopes to fill the position before the NBA hiatus is over. Whoever is ultimately hired to run the organization may make more hires and will launch an overhaul of the scouting department.
Executive vice president John Paxson is expected to be retained in an advisory role, but the fate of former GM Gar Forman, who is now working mainly in scouting, may be determined by the new regime. Reinsdorf is still a strong supporter of coach Jim Boylen, Johnson notes, but the fate of all the coaches will be decided by the new team president.
Assistant GM Steve Weinman is believed to be safe, Johnson writes. He has built a strong reputation for his expertise with salary cap issues and the collective bargaining agreement.
Bulls power forward Lauri Markkanen was unhappy with the direction of the offense under coach Jim Boylen and his role in it, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. Markkanen’s frustration had reached a point where he’d rather be dealt if organization changes weren’t made, Cowley continues. It’s possible the new front office executive — the Bulls are lining up interviews with candidates — could look to trade Markkanen if they feel the relationship is beyond repair, Cowley adds.
We have more on the Bulls:
- Within that same story, Cowley writes that the Bulls are keeping a close eye on the Heat. In addition to seeking an interview with Miami’s assistant GM Adam Simon, Chicago has also considered emulating the Heat’s front office structure, and has done homework on free agents like Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones.
- Otto Porter Jr. will likely be in a lame duck situation as the team’s small forward next season, Cowley writes in a separate story. Porter will surely exercise his $28.5MM option for next season after an injury-plagued campaign and his salary will come off the books just in time for the much-anticipated 2021 free-agent class. Boylen has even hinted he might have Porter come off the bench next season.
- Boylen’s future with the organization will be determined by the lead executive the Bulls hire, K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago reports. Boylen has the support of COO Michael Reinsdorf and executive VP John Paxson but a desire of the new executive to hire his own coach wouldn’t be a deal-breaker, Johnson continues, confirming one of his earlier stories. While Reinsdorf has been handling the search, Paxson has been a driving force on the need for change and a more modern front office, Johnson adds.
- The team’s ceiling for next season with its current group is a low-end playoff seed unless 2019 lottery pick Coby White develops rapidly, Kevin Pelton of ESPN opines. White needs to emerge as a knockdown shooter, something he flashed late in the season. It’s unlikely the new executive will pursue an extension with Markkanen, but if he bounces back and breaks out, the Bulls can still benefit by utilizing his “relatively modest” $20.2MM cap hold as he enters restricted free agency, Pelton adds.
1:24pm: Pacers GM Chad Buchanan will join Karnisovas and Webster on the Bulls’ list of first-wave interview targets, per K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). Sources tell Darnell Mayberry and Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link) that Heat assistant GM Adam Simon will be part of that group as well.
According to Mayberry (Twitter link), the Bulls won’t pursue Ujiri or Thunder head of basketball operations Sam Presti and won’t go the player-agent route like New York and other teams have.
12:41pm: The Bulls have formally launched their search for a new top front office executive who will have full authority on basketball decisions, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. We had previously heard in a series of February reports that the team was laying the groundwork for front office changes.
Those February reports suggested that executive VP of basketball operations John Paxson would retain a “valuable seat at the table” amidst the front office upheaval and that general manager Gar Forman would have his responsibilities cut back.
Wojnarowski confirms that Paxson is expected to continue in an advisory role and says that the club will have more conversations with Forman about his future. Previous reports indicated Forman would likely be re-assigned to a scouting position.
According to Wojnarowski, Chicago plans to seek permission to interview Nuggets general manager Arturas Karnisovas and Raptors GM Bobby Webster, among others. The club’s goal is to complete its planned front office changes “well before” the NBA resumes play, per Woj, who hears that interviews will begin next week and will be conducted virtually rather than in person due to the coronavirus.
Neither Karnisovas nor Webster is the head of basketball operations for his respective team — Tim Connelly serves as Denver’s president of basketball operations, while Masai Ujiri holds that position in Toronto. However, the two GMs have risen through their respective organizations in recent years and have played important roles in building the Nuggets’ and Raptors’ talented rosters.
According to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago, who identified Karnisovas and Webster as two possible targets for the Bulls in a March mailbag, Pacers GM Chad Buchanan, Heat assistant GM Adam Simon, Jazz GM Justin Zanik, and Clippers GM Michael Winger are among the other executives on Bulls president/COO Michael Reinsdorf‘s list of potential candidates (Twitter link).
Many of those executives are under contract beyond the 2019/20 season, but likely wouldn’t be held back by their respective teams if the Bulls’ job is viewed as a promotion from their current roles. Based on Woj’s description, it should be.
The timing of Chicago’s search is interesting. Ujiri spoke earlier this week about putting business like contract extensions for himself and Nick Nurse on hold during the NBA’s stoppage, and we heard on Thursday that the Knicks aren’t pursuing front office changes or a new head coach during the hiatus. Nets GM Sean Marks also said this week that his team isn’t moving forward with its head coach search at this time.
However, no official hiring or firing freeze has been instituted by the NBA, and the Bulls’ situation is a little different from that of those other teams — a new top front office executive would lead the team’s decisions in the draft and free agency, making that search a more pressing matter than a head coaching hire, lower-level front office changes, or extensions for current execs and coaches.
A month ago at this time, Kelly Olynyk appeared to be facing a difficult offseason decision on his $13.2MM player option, says Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. However, given the uncertainty that the NBA’s hiatus has created for the salary cap going forward, Olynyk’s decision may be getting easier.
As Jackson writes, Olynyk’s player option is worth more than the mid-level, and only a small handful of teams project to have the cap room required to match or top $13.2MM. Most of those teams with cap space are in the process of rebuilding, which may not appeal to Olynyk — it’s unlikely that any would even be willing to spend big money on him anyway, since the market will be “saturated with players of similar quality,” Jackson observes. It all points to Olynyk likely opting in for at least one more year with the Heat, barring a trade.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- Goran Dragic said on Tuesday that Heat coaches are overseeing video-conferencing workouts for Heat players for 90 minutes a day, tweets Jackson. Heat players complete the workouts – including weight-lifting exercises – from home and see their teammates on their screen going through the same drills.
- In a mailbag, Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel acknowledges that the NBA’s suspended season and lost revenue could have a ripple effect on the Heat’s 2020 and 2021 free agency plans. In addition to impacting presumed cap increases, this stoppage could result in more players opting for the financial security of longer-term contracts, Winderman suggests. That might limit Miami’s ability to re-sign veterans like Dragic to one-year deals to maintain cap flexibility for the summer of ’21.
- Another Sun Sentinel mailbag explores the Heat’s point guard situation, with Winderman writing that he wouldn’t be surprised if Tyler Herro supplants Kendrick Nunn as the starter as soon as next season.