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Why Some Contenders’ Trade Options Will Be Limited

December 19th, 2019 at 8:46am CST by Luke Adams

When David Aldridge of The Athletic polled NBA executives in November on Andre Iguodala‘s eventual landing spot, the responses were nearly unanimous. Nearly every exec who spoke to Aldridge predicted that Iguodala would ultimately end up with the Lakers.

However, with the Grizzlies standing firm on their stance that they intend to trade Iguodala rather than buy him out, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which those execs will be proven right.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the NBA’s trade rules, in order to take back Iguodala’s $17,185,185 salary, the Lakers would have to send out $12,185,185 in outgoing salary. The Lakers have three players earning more than that amount on their own: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Danny Green. It seems safe to assume none of those players will be included in a deal for Iguodala.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope‘s $8.09MM cap charge could be a good starting point in putting together a package for Iguodala, but Caldwell-Pope is one of three Lakers who has a de facto no-trade clause after re-signing with the team this past offseason — JaVale McGee and Rajon Rondo are the others. There’s probably no good reason for any of those players to approve a trade from the 24-4 Lakers to the 10-18 Grizzlies.

So what’s left? Even if the Lakers were to package all their next-biggest contracts, including Avery Bradley ($4.77MM), DeMarcus Cousins ($3.5MM), and Quinn Cook ($3MM), they’d have to include at least four players just to reach the threshold to take back Iguodala’s salary. That would mean either asking the Grizzlies to waive three players or getting other teams involved, neither of which presents a particularly realistic path to a deal.

The Lakers are perhaps the most striking example of how a lack of expendable contracts in the mid-level range ($8-12MM) may limit teams’ trade options this winter. But they’re hardly the only example.

Consider the Celtics. They only have three players earning between $5MM and $32.7MM in 2019/20. Those three players are Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart, and I wouldn’t expect the team to seriously consider moving any of them. For the C’s, acquiring a player in the $15-20MM range would mean packaging together at least three players earning $5MM or less, and three-for-one or four-for-one deals aren’t easy to pull off during the season.

The Sixers are in this group too. They have just two players with ’19/20 cap hits between $4.77MM and $27.5MM — Josh Richardson ($10.12MM) and Ben Simmons ($8.11MM). Trading Simmons probably isn’t a consideration anyway, but doing so would be virtually impossible due to the poison pill provision attached to his newly-signed extension. If Philadelphia wants to put together a trade package without including Richardson, it would likely mean starting with Mike Scott ($4.77MM) and Zhaire Smith ($3.06MM), which will limit the team’s ability to take on a bigger contract.

The Rockets had this quandary in mind when they signed Nene to an incentive-packed contract that bumped his cap hit to $10MM, despite a guarantee of just $2.56MM. The team essentially tried to create an expendable mid-level trade chip out of thin air, but the NBA thwarted the plan, ruling that Nene would only count for $2.56MM for matching purposes. As a result, Houston’s only contracts worth more than $3.54MM belong to the team’s five most important players, and one of them (Eric Gordon at $14.06MM) can’t be traded at all this season because he recently signed an extension.

The Clippers have one potentially expendable mid-level deal, but Maurice Harkless ($11.01MM) has been a pretty effective rotation player for the team this season, so L.A. would only move him for a clear upgrade. The Jazz and Raptors each have one contract in the mid-level range that could be used to build a trade package, but Dante Exum ($9.6MM) and Norman Powell ($10.12MM) both have multiple years left on their deals, complicating their value.

For certain trade targets, this dearth of expendable mid-level contracts among contenders won’t matter — there’s a viable path to match the salary of a player like Jae Crowder ($7.82MM) or even Robert Covington ($11.3MM) with some of those smaller deals.

Still, the salary-matching factor is one that shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to pricier trade candidates like Iguodala or Danilo Gallinari ($22.62MM). Every team except the Hawks is currently over the cap, so every team with title aspirations is subject to those salary-matching rules, which are even more restrictive on taxpaying teams.

At this point, contenders with movable contracts in the $10-15MM range, such as the Mavericks (Courtney Lee, $12.76MM), Heat (multiple players), and Nuggets (multiple players) appear better positioned to make certain deals to improve their rosters at the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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O’Connor’s Latest: Heat, CP3, Holiday, Gentry, Giannis

December 18th, 2019 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat inquired about a trade for Chris Paul during the offseason but never came close to an agreement with the Thunder. And at this point, Miami’s interest in Paul is “extinct,” league sources tell Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer.

A trade involving the Heat and CP3 always seemed like a long shot, since Miami and Oklahoma City didn’t see eye-to-eye on the veteran point guard’s trade value and Pat Riley didn’t want to compromise his club’s cap flexibility for the 2021 offseason. However, O’Connor’s suggestion that the Heat’s interest is now non-existent is perhaps a significant reason why the Thunder and Paul’s camp reportedly have “no belief” that a trade will happen this season.

Here’s more from O’Connor:

  • Rather than going after Paul, the Heat are considered more likely to pursue a trade for Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday, O’Connor hears from multiple league executives. Any major trade may be tricky for the hard-capped Heat to pull off, but Marc Stein of The New York Times reported on Tuesday that New Orleans is open to inquiries on Holiday.
  • Before the Pelicans make any significant roster moves, they’re probably more likely to make a head coaching change, two front office sources tell O’Connor. Multiple reports earlier this month indicated that Alvin Gentry‘s job was safe for now, but the club’s ongoing losing streak has extended to 13 games since then, so Gentry’s seat may be getting hotter.
  • It’s no secret around the NBA that the Heat are among the teams hoping to make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo if he reaches free agency in 2021, O’Connor writes. While he cautions that it might be a “pipe dream,” O’Connor argues that Miami will be well-positioned to make a strong pitch to a star free agent that summer, since the team could theoretically retain Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, Justise Winslow, and Duncan Robinson and still open up enough cap room for a max player like Giannis.
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NBPA Appeals Dion Waiters’ Latest Suspension

December 18th, 2019 at 8:37am CST by Luke Adams

For a third time this season, the National Basketball Players Association is appealing a Dion Waiters suspension, according to Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel.

As Winderman explains, the NBPA’s appeal isn’t intended to reduce Waiters’ current six-game suspension or get him on the court any faster. The union’s goal is to recoup some or all of the salary the Heat guard has lost as a result of the ban.

The NBPA filed similar appeals following Waiters’ one-game and 10-game suspensions earlier this season, as we relayed last month. In total, the three suspensions have sidelined Waiters for 17 games and have reduced his 2019/20 salary by $1.419MM. Additionally, because he won’t appear in at least 70 games, Waiters has missed out on a $1.2MM bonus, though that lost bonus hasn’t been appealed by the players’ union, per Winderman.

The appeals, which could be heard individually or concurrently, are unlikely to happen anytime in the near future, according to Winderman, who notes that the NBPA hasn’t asked to expedite the appeals. They’ll likely happen a few months from now, and may result in Waiters’ camp and the Heat reaching a settlement brokered by the union, Winderman writes.

Although the appeals will determine how much salary Waiters ultimately loses, they’ll have no impact on the Heat’s salary cap or tax situation, since all three suspensions have been issued by the team rather than the league.

Waiters’ current six-game ban runs through December 23, so he’ll be eligible to return on December 27 when the Heat host the Pacers. Still, considering the veteran guard has yet to play this season and the club is reportedly exploring options to get rid of him, it seems increasingly unlikely that he’ll see any action for Miami this season.

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Eastern Notes: DeRozan, Heat, Hornets

December 16th, 2019 at 10:58pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Would it make sense for the Raptors to trade for DeMar DeRozan? Toronto can combine the contracts of Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka in order to make a trade work, John Hollinger of The Athletic writes. However, the scribe believes there are other options on the trade market that would better fit the team such as Orlando’s Evan Fournier.

Here’s more from around the Eastern Conference:

  • Trading for either Chris Paul or Kevin Love would take Miami out of the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes in 2021 due to a lack of cap space, Hollinger adds in the same piece. The Heat are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference and may need more time to figure out whether it’s worth giving up the chance to strengthen the squad now to chase a superstar later.
  • Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer wonders whether Malik Monk is better served as a long-term piece in Charlotte or as a trade asset that could bring in additional talent. Bonnell doesn’t see Monk as a key piece for the Hornets‘ future in the way Devonte’ Graham and PJ Washington are.
  • Despite a weak Eastern Conference, the Hornets are unlikely to make any moves with the playoffs in mind, Bonnell adds in the same piece. Charlotte could look to trade one of their players on expiring deals, though the team would be looking for draft picks or younger players with upside in any such trade.
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Woj, Lowe On D-Lo, Mavs, MPJ, Love, VanVleet, More

December 16th, 2019 at 9:15am CST by Luke Adams

Approximately 120 players around the NBA became trade-eligible on Sunday, signaling the unofficial start of the NBA’s 2019/20 trade season. To celebrate the occasion, Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe hosted an ESPN special to survey the trade market, discussing which teams are most likely to make moves and which players are most likely to be dealt.

Here are several of the highlights from that discussion between Woj and Lowe:

Western Conference:

  • The Warriors may field trade inquiries on D’Angelo Russell leading up to February’s trade deadline, but they’re unlikely to actively shop him and probably won’t move him before the 2020 offseason, according to Wojnarowski (video link).
  • Wojnarowski believes the Mavericks would like to acquire a standout center to complement Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis (video link). He cites Montrezl Harrell as one player who might fit that bill, though Dallas would have to wait for the Clippers‘ big man to reach free agency.
  • The Nuggets essentially view Michael Porter Jr. as “untouchable,” says Wojnarowski (video link).
  • Wojnarowski and Lowe expect contenders to keep a close eye on Pelicans guards Jrue Holiday and J.J. Redick as the deadline nears (video link). According to Woj, Holiday loves New Orleans, but it’s not clear how patient he’ll be with the team’s rebuilding process.
  • Woj and Lowe note that the Clippers pursued Marcus Morris in free agency and could have interest in him again on the trade market. Lowe wouldn’t be surprised if the club tries to see what it can get using a package of Maurice Harkless, Patrick Patterson, and its first-round pick (video link).
  • Wojnarowski views 2019/20 as a pivotal year for the Rockets, adding that GM Daryl Morey seems to have given up trying to find a way to trade for Grizzlies wing Andre Iguodala after exploring multi-team scenarios earlier in the year (video link).

Eastern Conference:

  • Wojnarowski thinks the best the Cavaliers can realistically expect in a Kevin Love trade is a protected first-round pick, an expiring salary, and another throw-in player (video link). Woj adds that it seems as if Love is “ready to go,” having lost patience with the rebuild in Cleveland.
  • Count the Raptors and Heat among teams that will be reluctant to make any moves that compromise their 2021 cap flexibility (video links). According to Wojnarowski, Toronto wants to re-sign Fred VanVleet this summer, but continues to eye Giannis Antetokounmpo for ’21. As for the Heat, they seem less likely to trade young players for veterans than they have been in the past.
  • Pistons owner Tom Gores “loves” Andre Drummond, but the club will soon have to have a serious conversation about whether to go all-in on the veteran center or whether to try to shop him, per Woj (video link).
  • Lowe thinks players like Timberwolves forward Robert Covington and J.J. Redick will be on the Bucks‘ radar if they’re available, adding that Milwaukee appears willing to go over the tax line for the right deal (video link).
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Heat Could Make Run At Adams, Have Large Presence At All-Star Weekend

December 15th, 2019 at 6:52pm CST by JD Shaw
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Heat Exploring Options To Get Rid Of Dion Waiters

December 15th, 2019 at 11:40am CST by Arthur Hill

The Heat are looking for ways to unload Dion Waiters, who is serving his third suspension of the season, reports Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.

Two sources tell Jackson that the latest ban was the last straw regarding Waiters’ future in Miami. Management had been open to putting him back on the court if there were no further incidents, but his latest violation of team rules has ended that possibility.

Another source tells Jackson that Waiters is opposed to accepting a buyout that would cost him any of the $12.1MM he is making this year or the $12.7MM he is owed next season. The only thing that might change his mind is if he believes another team is interested in signing him, helping him recoup whatever money he parts with in a buyout. He has already lost $1.4MM because of the suspensions, which total 17 games.

The Heat are willing to offer a buyout, and Jackson was told that every option is “on the table” for resolving the situation. A team source admits that management has explored options for voiding Waiters’ contract, but there are concerns about a potential legal battle with the players union.

Jackson notes that the most likely scenario is for the Heat to continue paying Waiters while keeping him away from the team, an arrangement that he would have to approve. That enables Miami to use his salary as filler if a trade opportunity arises between now and February of next season. So far, no teams have expressed any interest in dealing for Waiters.

Ethan Skolnick of Five Reasons Sports reported this morning that Waiters’ latest suspension was triggered by an Instagram post that showed him on a boat when the team was led to believe he was sick. A source tells Skolnick that the suspension was imposed because of the cumulative effect of Waiters’ actions and team president Pat Riley’s emphasis on maintaining Heat “Culture.”

A source explained to Jackson that the post was one of many factors in the decision to suspend Waiters again.

Skolnick confirms that the team hasn’t made any progress in finding a taker for Waiters, with one source telling him, “There’s been no interest. None. Zip.” The Heat have been reluctant so far to include another asset such as a young player or a draft pick to make a deal happen.

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Heat Unlikely To Pursue Termination Of Waiters’ Contract

December 14th, 2019 at 1:33pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Heat shooting guard Dion Waiters is currently serving his third team-imposed suspension this season, but any attempt by the team’s management to terminate his contract would likely prove unsuccessful, as Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel details.

Waiters’ latest ban was announced on Thursday, a six-game suspension for failure to adhere to team policies, violation of team rules, and continued insubordination. He previously served one-game and 10-game suspensions.

Waiters has lost nearly $83,500 for each game he’s missed but he’ll still receive the bulk of his $12.1MM contract barring any further discipline. He’s also guaranteed $12.7MM in the final year of his four-year contract next season.

The Heat could attempt to terminate Waiters’ contract under a clause in the CBA — Paragraph 16 A1 of the NBA’s Uniform Player Contract, Winderman relays. It states:

“The Team may terminate this Contract upon written notice to the Player if the Player shall: (i) at any time, fail, refuse, or neglect to conform his personal conduct to standards of good citizenship, good moral character (defined here to mean not engaging in acts of moral turpitude, whether or not such acts would constitute a crime), and good sportsmanship, to keep himself in first class physical condition, or to obey the Team’s training rules.”

However, if the Heat’s front office pursues that option, Waiters’ representatives and the Players’ Association would undoubtedly file a grievance against that action. Attempts to terminate player contracts in the past have failed and the Players’ Association has already appealed the monetary penalties of Waiters’ first two suspensions, Winderman notes.

Pursuing the termination option could also impact the franchise negatively in other ways. Future free agents might be less inclined to sign with the team if the Heat plays hardball with Waiters, Winderman adds.

The Heat could waive Waiters and eat the remainder of his contract or attempt a buyout. There’s little incentive for Waiters to pursue the latter, considering his tarnished reputation. He’s eligible to return on December 27, though coach Erik Spoelstra has not used Waiters when he’s been available.

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Two-Way Players Making Bids For Promotions

December 13th, 2019 at 1:31pm CST by Luke Adams

Players on two-way contracts are free to appear in NBA games, but there are limitations on the amount of time they can spend with their respective NBA teams. Each two-way player can spend up to 45 days with his NBA club, assuming he signed his two-way deal before the season began.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Two-Way Contracts]

With some creative transferring back and forth between an NBA team and its G League affiliate, a franchise can make the most of those 45 days. Still, with the clock having started on October 28, the first day of G League training camp, it’s just a matter of time before some players use up their 45-day allotment.

Teams can sign players to two-way contracts through mid-January, so in past seasons some clubs have simply moved onto a new player once their original two-way players neared that 45-day limit. However, many players who have used up their 45 days subsequently received a promotion – signing a standard NBA contract and taking a spot on the 15-man roster – to ensure that their teams didn’t lose them.

It’s a little early in the 2019/20 season to determine which two-way players will ultimately end up being promoted to 15-man rosters, but a handful of players on two-way deals have made strong cases for standard contracts in the early going.

Here are the top candidates to receive promotions among this year’s two-way players:

Chris Silva, PF (Heat)

Silva has flown somewhat under the radar in Miami, since the Heat have two other rookies (Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn) making an even greater impact. But Silva has already appeared in 22 games for the NBA club, averaging 3.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and a .644 FG% in 9.7 minutes per contest.

Miami is hard-capped and can’t sign Silva to a standard contract before January 14. Even at that point, it’s not clear if getting him on the 15-man roster right away will be a top priority for the Heat, who may want to retain a modicum of flexibility leading up to the trade deadline. The club has a deep bench and could probably get by without him for a few weeks once he uses up his 45 NBA days, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Silva eventually sign a multiyear, minimum-salary deal like the one Nunn received last spring.

Chris Clemons, G (Rockets)

Although he has appeared in 17 games so far this season, Clemons isn’t exactly a rotation fixture for the Rockets, having played double-digit minutes in just five of those games. Still, in limited playing time, he has shown the ability to create instant offense off the bench, scoring at least 16 points three times and shooting 38.8% on threes.

After waiving Ryan Anderson earlier this fall, Houston has an open spot on its 15-man roster, but the team’s proximity to the tax line may work against a promotion for Clemons in the near future. We’ll see if the club can trade Nene within the next couple months, or if it needs to keep that final roster open for a potential addition on the trade market or buyout market.

Ky Bowman, PG (Warriors)
Damion Lee, SG (Warriors)

No player on the 5-21 Warriors this season has a positive net rating, but Lee (-2.9) is the closest and Bowman (-4.4) isn’t far behind.

Bowman has been especially impressive, stepping into the starting lineup several times when D’Angelo Russell missed time and posting a .454/.415/.909 shooting line through 26 games. Lee, who has appeared in just 12 games, hasn’t been as reliable from beyond the arc this year (31.6%) as he was last year (39.7%), but he had some productive nights early in the season, including a 23-point, 11-rebound showing in a win over New Orleans.

Like the Heat, the Warriors are hard-capped, limiting their ability to add anyone to their 15-man roster right now, despite having an open spot. But if they were to trade, say, Alec Burks without taking any salary back, the Dubs would be in position to promote a two-way player to their roster, potentially signing him to a team-friendly three- or four-year deal with their mid-level exception. In that scenario, Bowman would almost certainly be the priority over Lee.

The full list of players on two-way contracts can be found right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Eastern Notes: Bertans, Free Agency, Parker

December 12th, 2019 at 11:10pm CST by ChrisCrouse

As we reported earlier this week, it may be difficult for the rival teams to pry Davis Bertans from Washington, as the Wizards are strongly considering keeping the big man through the season and re-signing him this summer.

GM Tommy Sheppard believed that Bertans was “one of the top 3-point shooters in the league last season” when he dealt for the big man this past offseason, Jackson Filyo of NBA.com relays. The team thought that Bertans was someone who would add depth to the frontcourt with his “shooting ability, basketball IQ and work ethic.”

It’s turned out to be one of better under-the-radar moves as Bertans has been pacing the NBA in threes. Over his past six games, the Latvian Laser has 36 triples, which tops the league over that stretch. Washington doesn’t play again until Saturday. Perhaps time away is the only thing that can cool Bertans off.

Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:

  • One executive tells David Aldridge of The Athletic that the Wizards‘ game plan has increased Bertans’ stock as a trade chip and a 2020 free agent. “The way Washington is using him will certainly increase his value,” a longtime NBA front office executive, currently unaffiliated, said via text. “The [3-pointer] in today’s game is a huge commodity now. I think he is a mix between [Kyle Korver and [Ryan Anderson].”
  • One former front office executive (in that same piece) tells Aldridge that Bertans could make a substantial raise on his current $7MM salary in free agency this summer. “He will get between $15M and $20M (per year) this summer.” the former executive said. “Most likely for a two-year deal. Don’t see him getting a four-year deal.” It’s worth noting that one current GM thought that valuation was high, given how few teams will have cap space this summer.
  • Hawks forward Jabari Parker has no hard feelings toward the Bulls despite his tenure in Chicago not working out as planned. “I just had to move on, but that never changed about how I feel about my city because I have more street cred than that organization period,” Parker said this week, per Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
  • Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel wonders if Bam Adebayo is the second star the Heat have been looking for. The center is having his most efficient season as a professional and is a top contender for the Most Improved Player award.
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