Heat Rumors

2019/20 Over/Unders: Southeast Division

The 2019/20 NBA regular season will get underway in just six days, which means it’s time to get serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

Having already looked at the Atlantic, Northwest, Central, and Pacific, we’re moving onto the Southeast today…


Miami Heat

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Heat poll.


Orlando Magic

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Magic poll.


Atlanta Hawks

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Hawks poll.


Washington Wizards

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Wizards poll.


Charlotte Hornets

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Hornets poll.


Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Philadelphia 76ers (54.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
  • Boston Celtics (49.5 wins): Under (57.0%)
  • Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Under (59.1%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (43.5 wins): Over (58.3%)
  • New York Knicks (27.5 wins): Under (54.9%)

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (51.8%)
  • Utah Jazz (53.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (46.5 wins): Over (78.7%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (35.5 wins): Under (57.5%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (32.5 wins): Under (55.1%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (57.5 wins): Over (63.5%)
  • Indiana Pacers (46.5 wins): Over (56.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (37.5 wins): Over (69.8%)
  • Chicago Bulls (33.5 wins): Under (56.2%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (24.5 wins): Under (70.0%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Clippers (54.5 wins): Over (53.9%)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (51.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
  • Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
  • Sacramento Kings (38.5 wins): Over (66.2%)
  • Phoenix Suns (29.5 wins): Under (61.8%)

Heat Place High Value On Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo

Miami had talks with the Thunder on at least two occasions this offseason, discussing Russell Westbrook – before OKC dealt him to Houston – and Chris Paul. Sean Deveney of Heavy.com hears that the Heat were reluctant to include Tyler Herro in that deal or any deals over the summer.

They’ve been firm on him and (Bam) Adebayo being untouchable,” one GM told Deveney. “Maybe they would move off of that as the season goes on, but as it stands, they think they’ve got the second coming of Klay Thompson offensively. They have not had a lot of useful guys on rookie contracts in past years and that’s killed their cap. They’ve got two now, they don’t want to let them go.”

Herro was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Adebayo, who is set to take over the team’s starting center spot, was the No. 14 overall pick in the 2017 draft. Both players give the franchise hope for the future and are long-term building blocks on a roster that has the necessary pieces to compete for the playoffs now.

Yet, in order for the Heat to take the next step toward title contention, they may have to acquire another established star (such as Bradley Beal). Miami will have trouble putting together a legit trade package worthy of one without including their young prospects since the team already owes a pair of first-round picks to Oklahoma City and can’t deal another first-rounder earlier than its 2025 pick.

Heat Sign Skyler Flatten, Bubu Palo

The Heat have signed a pair of players with an eye on stocking up their G League team, the Sioux Falls Skyforce. Guards Skyler Flatten and Bubu Palo have inked contracts with Miami, as the team’s website relays.

The two contracts are likely Exhibit 10 deals similar to the pacts Jeremiah Martin and Mychal Mulder had before the team waived them earlier today. Martin and Mulder are likely to end up with the club’s G League affiliate.

Miami still has a pair of two-way deals available, as our tracker shows, though there’s no word yet on the Heat’s plans for those contracts.

Heat Waive Jeremiah Martin, Mychal Mulder

The Heat have waived a pair of camp invitees, announcing in a press release that they’ve released guards Jeremiah Martin and Mychal Mulder.

Martin signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Heat in July, while Mulder did so in September. Miami is up against a hard cap and can’t afford to carry a 15th man, so neither player was considered a candidate to end up on the regular season roster. However, they were believed to be in the running for one of the Heat’s two-way contract slots. Instead, they may be on track to join the Sioux Falls Skyforce in the G League.

With Martin and Mulder on waivers, the Heat are now carrying 18 players, including four non-guaranteed camp invitees: Kyle Alexander, Daryl Macon, Davon Reed, and Chris Silva. Miami is expected to convert the contracts for two players from that group into two-way deals.

Waiters' Role Remains In Flux

  • It’s still undecided whether Dion Waiters will start or come off the bench for the Heat this season, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets. Waiters is still working his way back into top shape, Jackson adds. Waiters, whose contract runs through the 2020/21 season, was limited to 44 games last season after recovering from ankle surgery and faces a logjam at the wing positions.

James Johnson Returns To Heat

Veteran forward James Johnson reported back to the Heat today after being away from the team for more than a week, writes Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel.

Johnson was banished from training camp by Miami at the start of the month, with initial reports suggesting that he failed to meet the team’s strict conditioning standards. Agent Mark Bartelstein later said that Johnson passed his conditioning test but had failed to meet the weight requirements set by the team. Either way, upon rejoining the team today, the 32-year-old was eager to show he’s ready for the coming season.

“It was Day 1 of earning my respect back,” Johnson said, per Winderman. “… It’s good to be back home. I got exactly what I needed; I got exactly what I needed to hear. Hopefully I can put it all behind me after this.”

While the Heat have a deep roster, Johnson projects to play a frontcourt role for the club, as his size and athleticism allows him to guard multiple positions on defense. Johnson has now missed two of Miami’s five preseason games, but head coach Erik Spoelstra doesn’t expect it to take long to get him back up to speed.

“It’s good to have him back and hopefully everything is behind us now,” Spoelstra said. “It’s not a shock to him what our system is.”

Woj, Lowe Talk Heat, CP3, Lowry

  • The Thunder‘s plan when they acquired Chris Paul from Houston was to flip him to another team, according to Wojnarowski, who says OKC had hoped the Heat would be more open to making a deal. “He’s going to have to play really well in Oklahoma City for somebody to want to take on three years, $124MM [and] pay him $44MM in the final year of his contract,” Woj said of CP3. “That’s a really difficult proposition. … He has value in the league, but not at those numbers.”
  • Woj and Lowe think Raptors guard Kyle Lowry would generate a lot of interest on the trade market if Toronto becomes open to moving him. Both ESPN experts believe that Lowry’s one-year, $31MM extension actually makes him more appealing as a trade chip, since he wouldn’t be just a half-season rental. Lowe speculates that teams like the Heat, Pistons, and Clippers might have interest, while Woj singles out the Timberwolves as another potential fit.

    [SOURCE LINK]

2019 Offseason In Review: Miami Heat

Hoops Rumors is breaking down the 2019 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2019/20 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Miami Heat.

Signings:

  • Standard contracts:
    • Jimmy Butler: Four year, maximum salary ($140.79MM). Fourth-year player option. 15% trade kicker. Acquired via sign-and-trade.
    • Udonis Haslem: One year, minimum salary. Re-signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Two-way contracts:
    • None
  • Non-guaranteed camp contracts:

Trades:

  • Acquired No. 44 pick in 2019 draft (used to select Bol Bol) from the Hawks in exchange for the Heat’s 2024 second-round pick (protected 31-50 and 56-60) and cash ($1.88MM).
  • Acquired either the Nuggets’ or Sixers’ second-round pick (whichever is least favorable) and cash ($1.2MM) from the Nuggets in exchange for the draft rights to Bol Bol (No. 44 pick).
  • Acquired the draft rights to KZ Okpala (No. 32 pick) in a three-team trade with the Pacers and Suns in exchange for the Heat’s 2022 second-round pick, the Heat’s 2025 second-round pick, and the Heat’s 2026 second-round pick (all sent to Pacers).
  • Acquired Jimmy Butler (sign-and-trade), Meyers Leonard, and cash ($110K) in a four-team trade with the Sixers, Trail Blazers, and Clippers in exchange for Josh Richardson (to Sixers), Hassan Whiteside (to Blazers), and the Heat’s 2023 first-round pick (top-14 protected; to Clippers).

Draft picks:

  • 1-13: Tyler Herro — Signed to rookie contract.
  • 2-32: KZ Okpala — Signed to three-year, minimum salary contract. Fully guaranteed. Signed using mid-level exception.

Departing players:

Other offseason news:

  • Signed head coach Erik Spoeltra to four-year extension.
  • Exercised 2020/21 rookie scale option on Bam Adebayo.
  • Assistant coach Juwan Howard left for Michigan.
  • Named Eric Glass head coach of Sioux Falls Skyforce (G League affiliate).

Salary cap situation:

  • Remained over the cap.
  • Carrying approximately $134.44MM in guaranteed salary.
  • Hard-capped (within approximately $1MM of hard cap).
  • $8.36MM of mid-level exception still available (used $898K on KZ Okpala).
  • Full bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) still available.
    • Note: Due to hard cap, Heat would have to reduce salary elsewhere in order to use full MLE and/or BAE.
  • $6.27MM traded player exception available (expires 2/6/20).

Story of the summer:

Entering the 2019 offseason, the Heat’s ability to make a competitive bid for any of the summer’s top free agents looked extremely limited. Not only was team salary well above the projected cap, but there was no guarantee the club would even be able to stay below the tax line. Going after a maximum-salary free agent seemed like a pipe dream.

Well, that was the perception from outside the organization at least. Within the front office, Pat Riley and his management team weren’t about to let a few cap limitations get in the way of pursuing a star.

Riley and the Heat made good on that plan, acquiring Jimmy Butler in a sign-and-trade deal with the Sixers that didn’t require the team to create cap room. Still, while Miami’s creative approach to landing an impact player is laudable, it’s also worth noting how many sacrifices the team had to make to get it done.

The sign-and-trade deal for Butler didn’t just include the Sixers — two other teams had to get involved too in order to meet salary-matching requirements, and the Heat had to part with promising youngster Josh Richardson and a future first-round pick in the process. Plus, as a result of acquiring a player via sign-and-trade, Miami is now hard-capped for the rest of the 2019/20 league year, all but eliminating the possibility of adding a 15th man to the opening-night roster or making any additional trades that involve taking on excess salary.

If Miami had the cap room to sign Butler outright, none of those steps would have been necessary. But, as a result of pricey contracts handed out to Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, and Hassan Whiteside (dealt to Portland in the Butler sign-and-trade), the team didn’t have the flexibility to create a max-salary slot under the cap. And now its flexibility for the rest of the season will be hampered to an even greater degree.

For the Heat though, that trade-off was a necessary evil. They believe Butler was worth both the investment ($140MM+) and the cap machinations necessary to bring him aboard. Now that he’s under contract for the next four years, Miami will have the opportunity to continue building around him once those undesirable contracts start to expire.

Read more

Johnson Close To Returning To Heat Camp

Heat president Pat Riley said forward James Johnson is very close to reaching his conditioning requirements and joining the team for training camp, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.

Johnson failed to meet Riley’s standards – which Johnson’s agent Mark Bartelstein described as a weight issue – and has been working out apart from the team.

“He’s already almost there again,” Riley said. “So I think in very short notice I’m going to turn this over to (coach) Erik (Spoelstra).”

Riley says he has no hard feelings toward Johnson but that the banishment “had to be done.”

“I’ve always had that feeling about players, even the ones that may fall short of certain goals and things of that nature,” he said. “It’s just something that had to be done. Now, he realizes it, and I realize it. It’s not going to take away from the team and it’s not going to take away from him once he reaches those conditioning requirements.”

Johnson has a $15.3MM contract this season with a $16MM player option for the 2020/21 season. He’s the projected starter at power forward after starting 33 of 55 games in which he appeared last season.

Heat Notes: Butler, Reed, Nunn, Johnson

Heat fans have already embraced Jimmy Butler, which was evident during an intrasquad scrimmage, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald notes. Fans broke out a “We love Jimmy” chant during the proceedings.

“I think the fan base feels the same way we do about Jimmy,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We just feel that he has Heat DNA, that he was meant to play here and meant to put on a Miami Heat uniform. He has a magnetic personality that the fan base is really going to enjoy and he’s a very good basketball player.”

We have more on the Heat:

  • Guard Davon Reed is competing for a two-way deal but he hopes to eventually receive a standard contract, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel writes. Reed, who spent most of last season with the Pacers’ G League affiliate, was signed to an Exhibit 10 contract in September. “I can do a lot of different things,” he said. “There’s a lot of facets to my game. Most important, I’m going to put my team first. I think my energy, my effort, my talking and just my game will show.”
  • Guard Kendrick Nunn led the Heat’s summer league team in scoring and Miami seems inclined to keep him on the regular roster, according to Khobi Price of the Sun Sentinel. Nunn will receive a $450K guarantee if he’s on the opening night roster. “We were fortunate to get somebody of his quality,” Spoelstra said. “He also was a fit with us in terms of the culture fit, the work ethic, the drive – there’s a long lineage of non-drafted Miami Heat players who have come through our player development program and he’s the next notable one.”
  • The biggest mystery regarding the James Johnson saga is whether both the forward and the team can eventually move past this moment, Winderman writes in a mailbag piece. Johnson hasn’t been allowed to participate in camp yet because he didn’t meet the team’s weight goal set for him.