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2019 NBA Draft Order Tiebreaker Results

April 12th, 2019 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s draft order is determined by the league’s reverse standings for that year, with the first four spots in the draft up for grabs via the lottery. However, when two teams finish the season with identical records, an additional step is necessary.

In order to determine which of those tied teams will move ahead of the other(s) in the draft order, the NBA conducts tiebreakers via random drawings. The league completed the random drawings for 2019’s tiebreakers today, and we have the results below. Let’s dive in…

Tiebreaker No. 1:

Teams: Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (19-63)
Draft positions: 2-3
Winner: Cavaliers

Tiebreaker No. 2:

Teams: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies (33-49)
Draft positions: 7-9
Winner: Pelicans
Second place: Grizzlies
Note: Grizzlies’ pick will go to Celtics if it falls outside top eight; Mavericks’ pick will go to the Hawks if it falls outside top five.

Tiebreaker No. 3:

Teams: Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets (39-43)
Draft positions: 12-14
Winner: Hornets
Second place: Heat
Note: Kings’ pick belongs to Celtics (or Sixers if it’s No. 1).

Tiebreaker No. 4:

Teams: Brooklyn Nets vs. Orlando Magic (42-40)
Draft positions: 16-17
Winner: Magic

Tiebreaker No. 5:

Teams: Los Angeles Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers (48-34)
Draft positions: 18-20
Winner: Pacers
Second place: Spurs
Note: Clippers’ pick belongs to Celtics.

Tiebreaker No. 6:

Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics (49-33)
Draft positions: 21-22
Winner: Thunder

Tiebreaker No. 7:

Teams: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Houston Rockets (53-29)
Draft positions: 25-26
Winner: Trail Blazers
Note: Rockets’ pick belongs to Cavaliers.

Teams’ lottery odds didn’t really change as a result of today’s tiebreakers. In instances where two or more lottery teams finish with identical records, the lottery combinations are split evenly among them, with the tiebreaker winner getting one extra combination if there’s an odd number.

However, today’s results were still important. As a result of ending up at No. 8, for instance, the Grizzlies now have a 57.4% chance of retaining their own top-eight protected pick, something they don’t really want to do unless it jumps into the top four.

The Celtics, who already have three first-round selections for 2019 and would prefer to roll that Memphis pick over to 2020, will get it if it falls outside of the top eight. There’s only a 42.6% chance that will happen. The Grizzlies’ result was the only good news today for the Celtics, who lost their other three tiebreakers.

The pre-lottery 2019 draft order for the first round is listed below. For more information on the lottery odds for the top 14 teams, be sure to check out our recap from Thursday, as well as our glossary entry on the draft lottery. This year’s lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 14.

New York Knicks
Cleveland Cavaliers
Phoenix Suns
Chicago Bulls
Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
- Note: The Celtics will receive this pick if it falls out of the top eight (42.6% chance).
Atlanta Hawks (via Dallas Mavericks)
- Note: The Mavericks will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four (26.2% chance).
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers
Charlotte Hornets
Miami Heat
Boston Celtics (via Sacramento Kings)
- Note: The Sixers will receive this pick if it moves up to No. 1 (1.0% chance).
Detroit Pistons
Orlando Magic
Brooklyn Nets
Indiana Pacers
San Antonio Spurs
Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Boston Celtics
Utah Jazz
Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trail Blazers
Cleveland Cavaliers (via Houston Rockets)
Brooklyn Nets (via Denver Nuggets)
Golden State Warriors
San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto Raptors)
Milwaukee Bucks

Information from Tankathon.com was used in the creation of this post.

Heat Notes: Dragic, Lottery, McGruder, Haslem

April 11th, 2019 at 10:55pm CST by clarkcrum

Heat center Hassan Whiteside isn’t the only Miami veteran with a player option decision to make this offseason. As Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes, point guard Goran Dragic will also need to make a choice as to whether he will opt in to his $19.2MM salary for the 2019/20 season or test the open market.

Dragic believes it’s still too early to make a decision on next year, stating that he will first need to speak with his family and agent to determine what the best next step will be. “There’s a lot of factors,” Dragic said. “I’ll try to do what is best for my career, for my family. It’s going to require to talk a lot and see from there what’s going to be best.”

When specifically asked whether the player option decision will be a difficult one, Dragic had a straightforward response. “I mean, if it would be a simple decision, probably I would already know now. So, yeah.”

There is more out of South Beach tonight:

Within the same article, Chiang also notes that the Heat, tied for the best record among lottery teams, only have a 4.7 percent chance at landing one of the top-four picks in this year’s draft (1.0 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, 1.1 percent chance at the No. 2 pick, 1.2 percent chance at the No. 3 pick, and a 1.4 percent chance at the No. 4 pick).
In a Q&A piece, Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel notes that the Heat probably made a bad decision when they decided to let Rodney McGruder go for financial reasons. The Heat have built their organization on the premise of a certain culture, and making a decision premised on finances rather than basketball flies in the face of that culture.
In another piece for the Sun-Sentinel, Winderman writes that 16-year veteran forward Udonis Haslem will need some time to decompress before deciding whether to return for another season. Head coach Erik Spoelstra hopes Haslem returns, saying “He’s sacrificed as much as anybody, obviously. But UD can still play. He still can. We see it all the time in practices. We have a bunch of young bigs that he’s really taken on ownership to mentor and to help develop and everything.”

Heat Sign Kendrick Nunn

April 10th, 2019 at 5:13pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Heat have filled the final open spot on their 15-man roster by signing guard Kendrick Nunn, the team announced today (via Twitter). No corresponding roster move was necessary to make room for Nunn, whose deal with Miami was first reported by Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).

An undrafted rookie out of Oakland University, Nunn signed a camp deal with the Warriors last summer and spent the preseason with Golden State before reporting to the team’s G League affiliate, the Santa Cruz Warriors.

In 49 G League games this season, he averaged 19.3 PPG on .473/.335/.856 shooting off the bench, to go along with 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.4 SPG. Those sort of scoring numbers are nothing new for Nunn, who racked up 25.9 PPG during his last college season in 2017/18.

As Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel confirms (via Twitter), Nunn’s contract resembles the multiyear pacts signed by Yante Maten and Duncan Robinson within the last few days. Those deals, which run through 2020/21, are non-guaranteed beyond this season, but include offseason trigger dates.

Details On Kelly Olynyk's Contract Incentives

April 10th, 2019 at 2:45pm CST by Luke Adams

Since the Heat failed to reach the postseason, Kelly Olynyk missed out on a $400K bonus that had been considered likely, Marks tweets. That will move Miami further below the tax line and will ensure that Olynyk’s 2019/20 cap hit adjusts from approximately $13.07MM to $12.67MM.

Hassan Whiteside Discusses Player Option, Role

April 10th, 2019 at 1:29pm CST by Luke Adams

Heat center Hassan Whiteside has the ability to reach the open market this summer if he opts out of the final year of the four-year contract he signed back in 2016. However, he’s unlikely to get the sort of payday in free agency that would make it worthwhile to decline his $27MM+ player option for 2019/20.

Still, as Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald writes, Whiteside doesn’t view the decision as automatic, telling reporters on Wednesday that he plans to give the matter some thought in the coming weeks.

“I’m definitely going to weigh my options,” Whiteside said. “It’s definitely a decision I got to make and do the best for me. I feel like if I’m playing, I’m going to produce so it will take care of itself.”

Having been displaced by Bam Adebayo in Miami’s starting lineup, Whiteside saw his playing time dip to just 23.3 minutes per contest in 2018/19, his lowest mark since he joined the Heat in 2014. That number dropped even further, to 17.3 MPG, in the 19 games since the start of March. And while the 29-year-old didn’t publicly gripe about his role during the season, he made it clear today that he believes he’s capable of more.

“I don’t think I’m a 20-minute guy,” Whiteside said, per Jackson. “I average what, 20 minutes? So I think I can play more and I can do more. So I definitely think what I bring to the game is at a high level for my position. You know, I led the league in categories that you would want a big man to lead the league in. I feel like I can keep doing that.”

Whiteside’s overall numbers – 12.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, and 1.9 BPG – were down from previous years, but as he hints at, his per-minute production was strong. According to Basketball-Reference’s data, the Heat center led the league in rebounds per 36 minutes and ranked fifth in blocks per 36 minutes.

Heat Sign Duncan Robinson To Standard Contract

April 9th, 2019 at 5:44pm CST by Luke Adams

5:44pm: Robinson’s contract is a three-year, minimum-salary deal like Maten’s that runs through 2020/21, a source confirms to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald (Twitter link). The Heat used part of their mid-level exception to complete the deal, which features guarantee trigger dates in the offseason.

5:29pm: Two days after promoting Yante Maten to their 15-man roster, the Heat have done the same with their other two-way player, announcing today (via Twitter) that they’ve signed forward Duncan Robinson to a standard contract.

Robinson, who will turn 25 later this month, signed a two-way deal with the Heat in 2018 after going undrafted out of Michigan. He has seen limited minutes in 13 games for Miami, having spent most of his rookie year with the Sioux Falls Skyforce, the Heat’s G League affiliate.

In 33 games for the Skyforce, Robinson averaged 21.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, and 3.0 APG to go along with a very impressive .514/.483/.803 shooting line. He was named to the All-NBAGL Third Team.

While terms of Robinson’s new contract have yet to be reported, the Heat presumably attempted to lock him up to a deal similar to Maten’s — that contract will run through the 2020/21 campaign, though it isn’t guaranteed beyond this season.

The Heat, who ducked under the tax line today when Rodney McGruder was claimed off waivers by the Clippers, now have 14 players under contract, so they could add one more to their 15-man squad before Wednesday’s regular-season finale in Brooklyn if they so choose.

Clippers Claim Rodney McGruder Off Waivers

April 9th, 2019 at 4:04pm CST by Luke Adams

The Clippers have used an open roster spot and a traded player exception to claim shooting guard Rodney McGruder off waivers from the Heat, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Because he was released after March 1, McGruder won’t be eligible to participate in the postseason for Los Angeles. However, the Clippers will assume control of his Early Bird rights and will have the ability to make him a restricted free agent this summer by issuing him a qualifying offer. That QO would be worth just over $3MM, since McGruder met the starter criteria this season.

McGruder, 27, had a solid season in Miami, averaging 7.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 1.7 APG with a .403/.351/.722 as a regular part of the team’s rotation over 66 games (23.5 MPG). However, with the Heat’s playoff chances dwindling, they decided to prioritize getting out of the tax.

Since McGruder was claimed off waivers, Miami won’t be on the hook for his $1,544,951 cap hit, allowing the club to duck below the tax line. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets, the move will save the Heat approximately $5.2MM, since they’ll no longer have a $2.1MM tax bill and will instead be in line for a $3.1MM share of other teams’ tax payments. It should also help the organization avoid repeater-tax penalties down the road.

Although McGruder is earning the minimum salary this season, his contract was a three-year pact, meaning it wasn’t eligible to be claimed using the minimum salary exception, which only accommodates one- or two-year deals. As such, the Clippers had to use a traded player exception to place their claim. The team had two exceptions that could have worked, but likely used the $2,760,095 TPE from last August’s Sam Dekker deal, since it’s worth less than – and will expire before – the $9.8MM TPE created in February’s Tobias Harris blockbuster.

The Clippers are in position to make McGruder part of their future, but could just as easily let him go during the offseason if retaining him would compromise their ability to land a top free agent target. Still, his modest cap hold – which would be the amount of his qualifying offer if the Clips extend one – should give the club some flexibility.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Notable Draft Lottery Races To Watch This Week

April 8th, 2019 at 12:43pm CST by Luke Adams

The 16-64 Knicks have clinched the NBA’s worst record for the 2018/19 season, but a number of other spots behind them in the draft lottery remain very much up for grabs, as our reverse standings show. Now that every NBA team only has one or two games left on its schedule, here are the key races and games to keep an eye on this week:

The battle for No. 2:

A nine-game losing streak for the Cavaliers has pulled them even with the Suns for the No. 2 spot in the lottery standings, as both teams head into their final game of the season at 19-62. Each club plays its last game on Tuesday, with the Cavs hosting Charlotte while the Suns play in Dallas.

The Hornets are still fighting for their playoff lives and the Suns have a 7-33 road record this season, so it wouldn’t be surprise if both Cleveland and Phoenix lose and finish at 19-63. In that scenario, a coin flip would decide which team gets the second spot in the lottery standings and which team finishes third. Their odds at a top pick would be the same either way, but the third-place team could fall to as far as No. 7 in the draft, as opposed to No. 6.

Four teams separated by one game between Nos. 6-9:

The Wizards (32-49) currently sit at No. 6 in the lottery standings, but the Grizzlies (32-48), Mavericks (32-48), and Pelicans (33-48) are right there with them. Adding intrigue to this logjam is the fact that the Grizzlies would like to see their top-eight protected first-round pick convey to Boston this season, while the Mavs probably wouldn’t mind keeping their top-five protected first-rounder.

Memphis, with the most incentive to win out, has perhaps the toughest schedule of this group, with games on tap in Detroit on Tuesday and vs. Golden State on Wednesday. The Pistons are still fighting to make the postseason, and the Warriors reportedly intend to play at least half of their regulars in the 82nd game. Wins won’t come easy for the Grizzlies.

The Pelicans’ final game comes on Tuesday vs. Golden State, in a contest which will likely feature the other half of the Warriors’ regulars.

The Wizards finish at home vs. the Celtics, who might be resting some top players now that they’ve sewn up the No. 4 seed in the East.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, have a winnable game at home vs. Phoenix on tap for Tuesday before finishing their season in San Antonio on Wednesday. The Spurs may still be battling for playoff seeding at that point.

The difference between finishing sixth and ninth in the lottery standings is significant. The No. 6 team has a 9% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 37.2% chance at a top-four selection. For the No. 9 team, those odds dip to 4.5% and 20.2%, respectively.

Minor back-of-the-lottery intrigue:

The Heat and Hornets are both 38-42 and remain in the hunt for the postseason. They’re currently just ahead of the 39-42 Kings in the lottery standings.

If Miami (vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn) and Charlotte (at Cleveland, vs. Orlando) both win out and the Kings lose in Portland on Wednesday, Sacramento would move up from No. 14 to No. 12 in the lottery standings. That’s not really a huge deal, since the No. 12 team is still a real long shot to move up.

Still, Sixers and Celtics fans will certainly take note of the difference between No. 14 (0.5% chance at the No. 1 pick; 2.4% chance at a top-four pick) and No. 12 (1.5% and 7.2%, respectively). If the Kings’ pick jumps to No. 1, Philadelphia would get it. If it lands anywhere else – including Nos. 2, 3, or 4 – it’ll go to Boston.

Heat Waive Rodney McGruder

April 7th, 2019 at 4:16pm CST by clarkcrum

The Heat have waived swingman Rodney McGruder, per Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium, in a financially motivated attempt to skirt the luxury tax.

The Heat lost to the Raptors earlier today, putting a large hit on the club’s playoff chances. Wins by the Pistons and the Nets, both playing now, would officially eliminate Miami. Therefore, the Heat were left with a decision — keep McGruder, hope to make the playoffs against long odds, and try to re-sign him this summer, or waive him for potential financial gain. The team chose the latter.

As noted by Bobby Marks of ESPN, the Heat will avoid the luxury tax if McGruder’s $1.54MM minimum-salary contract is claimed by another team. However, any team interested in picking up McGruder would not have the 27-year-old available for the playoffs, so the only incentive to claim him would be to obtain his Early Bird rights and the right to match any offers for him in free agency. McGruder will be a restricted free agent this summer with a qualifying offer of a little more than $3.6MM.

As such, it will be interesting to see whether another franchise claims McGruder and helps out Miami. On the one hand, McGruder is still relatively young and on a cheap contract. Moreover, he will be a restricted free agent this summer, which is always a tantalizing asset for any club. But, he can’t help now, in the playoffs, which is currently the primary focus of many teams. For what it’s worth, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Heat believe McGruder will be claimed.

McGruder started 45 games for the Heat this season, averaging 7.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists. He appeared in 161 games for the Heat over three seasons and led the Heat’s G-League affiliate to a championship back in 2016.

Kelly Olynyk Monitoring Canadian Basketball Coaching Search

April 7th, 2019 at 3:58pm CST by JD Shaw

Heat forward Kelly Olynyk has kept tabs on the Canadian men’s national team, most notably the team’s head coaching search ahead of the FIBA Basketball World Cup that starts on August 31, Michael Grange of Sportsnet writes. Olynyk, who was born in Canada, will likely play for the team this summer. “It’s not a thing where we need someone to micromanage a game and do all that stuff and trick other teams,” he said of the team’s coaching search. “We have the talent, we have the abilities we just need someone to help us put them to the test.”