Heat Rumors

2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Southeast Division…


Orlando Magic


Miami Heat


Atlanta Hawks


Charlotte Hornets


Washington Wizards


Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Nets Notes: Butler, Simmons, Johnson, Finney-Smith

Jimmy Butler is “fond” of the idea of joining the Nets if he eventually decides to leave the Heat, sources tell Brian Lewis of The New York Post. There’s no guarantee that Butler will be coming to Brooklyn, but his uncertain status in Miami makes it a situation worth watching.

Butler holds a $52.4MM player option for the 2025/26 season and plans to become a free agent next summer. He’s currently eligible for a two-year extension worth about $113MM, but he recently stated that he won’t consider extending his contract with the Heat or any other team.

Team president Pat Riley expressed reservations about extending Butler during a press conference in May, suggesting that his limited availability makes it a risky investment. Butler missed 22 games last season and hasn’t played in more than 64 during his five years in Miami.

Even so, re-signing with the Heat remains a possibility when Butler tests the market in 2025 in hopes of landing a max contract. Lewis expects Brooklyn, which projects to have a large amount of cap space, to be among the bidders, along with possibly the Rockets and one of the Los Angeles teams.

There’s more on the Nets, all from Lewis:

  • After playing just 15 games last season and undergoing back surgery in March, Ben Simmons has been cleared for 5-on-5 play and should be ready for the start of training camp. Lewis reports that new head coach Jordi Fernandez has traveled to Florida to visit with Simmons and check on his recovery from a herniated disc. This is the final year of Simmons’ hefty contract, which is now a $40.3MM expiring deal.
  • Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith both remain trade candidates as the Nets get serious about the rebuilding process. Sources tell Lewis that Brooklyn’s front office has placed a high price on Johnson in trade talks, which explains why a deal hasn’t been completed yet. While Johnson is signed through the 2026/27 season, Lewis sees more urgency to find a taker for Finney-Smith. The 31-year-old forward has a $15.3MM player option for next season, which Lewis expects him to decline since there’s usually a strong demand for 3-and-D wings. The Nets will risk losing Finney-Smith for nothing if they don’t deal him by the trade deadline.
  • The Nets are hoping to expand their international presence by having their G League affiliate in Long Island play six home games in Quebec this season, Lewis adds.

Heat Notes: Young Players, Jovic, Jaquez, Training Camp, Rozier

While winning the summer league championship was a boon for the Heat‘s development system, reality’s soon to set in on which of their pieces will actually be factors in the regular season rotation, Ira Winderman of South Florida’s Sun Sentinel writes. The Heat have differed in their approach to playing time for their young players over the years, taking a more patient approach to developing Bam Adebayo but inserting Jaime Jaquez into the rotation right away.

In Winderman’s view, Nikola Jovic and Jaquez will almost certainly be shouldering heavy minutes, while rookies Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larsson might take more time to break in to the rotation.

In a separate article, Winderman evaluates what to expect this season from Jovic, who averaged 9.5 points on .476/.390/.815 shooting after being named a full-time starter last year. As the Heat prepare for the possibility of life post-Jimmy Butler, Jovic is one of their key pieces moving forward.

We have more from the Heat:

  • With Jovic and Jaquez both having their rookie-scale options picked up, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald evaluates the state of the future roster. The Heat currently have 10 players under contract for 2025/26 and that number would increase to 11 if Butler picks up his player option.
  • The Heat are holding training camp at Baha Mar in the Bahamas from Oct. 1-5, according to a team release. The club will travel following media day on Sept. 30 and the camp will not be available for public viewing.
  • Terry Rozier might benefit from having a full offseason to work with the Heat after being acquired at the trade deadline. Winderman writes in a mailbag that he isn’t sure it will have an impact on the guard’s role with the team. Rozier struggled in his first 10 games with the Heat, averaging 12.6 points and 35.9% shooting. However, he settled in and averaged 19.0 points on 45.2% shooting over his next 20 outings.

Heat Exercise 2025/26 Options On Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic

The Heat have exercised their 2025/26 team options on wing Jaime Jaquez and forward Nikola Jovic, the team announced (Twitter link via Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press).

Jaquez is now guaranteed to earn $3,861,600 in ’25/26, which will be his third season, while Jovic will earn $4,445,417 during his fourth campaign. Jovic will also become eligible for a rookie scale extension during the 2025 offseason.

As our tracker shows, Miami is the first NBA team to make decisions on its rookie scale team options for the ’25/26 season. The outcome was a mere formality after both players had strong seasons in ’23/24.

The No. 18 overall pick of the 2023 draft, Jaquez averaged 11.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.6 APG and 1.0 SPG in 75 regular season contests for the Heat (28.2 MPG). His excellent play earned him a spot on the All-Rookie First Team.

Jovic, who is two-plus years younger than Jaquez (21 vs. 23) despite being drafted a year earlier (No. 27 in 2022), spent the beginning of last season in the G League before emerging as a rotation regular down the stretch. In 46 regular season games (19.5 MPG), Jovic averaged 7.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG and 2.0 APG. The Serbian won a bronze medal this summer at the Olympics in Paris.

The deadline for teams to pick up 2025/26 rookie scale options is October 31, 2024.

Eastern Notes: Larsson, Johnson, McConnell, Ivey, Sasser, Long Island Nets

Heat second-round pick Pelle Larsson and two-way rookie Keshad Johnson were teammates at Arizona. The Wildcats head coach believes they’ll fit right in with the Heat culture, he told Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald.

“I think one of the things that makes them impressive prospects is they’re both wired and willing to be great role players,” Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd said. “You know, 100 percent of their focus is going to be contributing to the team’s overall success. These aren’t like shoot first, ask questions later type of guys. So they’re going to give you a well-rounded effort on both ends of the floor. On offense, they’re going to play their role and stay in their lane. Then defensively and in all the effort areas, they’re going to max that stuff out.”

Larsson looked like he could quickly contribute. During Summer League competition, he averaged 15.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.3 steals per game. He signed a three-year contract starting at the rookie minimum.

We have more from the Eastern Conference:

  • T.J. McConnell‘s four-year extension with the Pacers includes a partial guarantee in the third year of the contract and a team option in the final season, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN (Twitter link). The four-year, $44.8MM extension breaks down like this — $10.2MM in 2025/26; $11MM in  2026/27; $11.8MM ($5MM partial guarantee) in 2027/28; and a $11.8MM team option in 2028/29.
  • Though Jaden Ivey and Marcus Sasser are not natural point guards, The Athletic’s James Edwards believes one of them will back up Cade Cunningham rather than the Pistons making another roster move. Adding a free agent point guard would take away some of their playing time and the Pistons already brought in Tim Hardaway Jr. via trade and Malik Beasley via free agency. That duo will likely soak up a lot of minutes at shooting guard.
  • The NBA G League’s Long Island Nets will play six home games at in Montreal, two each in January, February and March, NetsDaily.com relays. Most of the team’s games are held at Nassau Coliseum. It’s speculated that the club is looking to extend its brand internationally.

Teams Limited To Minimum Salary Contract Offers

There won’t be a ton of free agents who sign for more than the veteran’s minimum between now and the end of the NBA’s regular season. The majority of the players whose markets exceeded the minimum came off the board pretty quickly in July, and teams aren’t looking to spend big on the players who are still available.

Still, that certainly doesn’t mean every signing for the next seven months will be of the minimum-salary variety. In some cases – especially on the buyout market in February – being able to offer a couple million dollars more than the minimum could be the difference between a team landing a free agent and missing out on him.

With that in mind, it’s worth checking in on which teams don’t currently have the ability to offer more than the minimum. By our count, a third of the NBA is in this boat, though some of those clubs could generate some spending flexibility by making cost-cutting trades.

Here’s a breakdown of the teams currently limited to minimum-salary contract offers for free agents:

Teams above the second tax apron:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Milwaukee Bucks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Phoenix Suns

Teams operating above the second tax apron, which comes in at $188,931,000 in 2024/25, face a series of roster-building restrictions, including being prohibited from using any form of the mid-level exception, as well as the bi-annual exception.

The Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves, and Suns all fall into that group of teams above the second apron and therefore don’t have any cap exceptions available to use on free agents besides the minimum salary exception.

Teams very close to the second tax apron:

  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Miami Heat

Because their team salaries are below the second apron, the Lakers and Heat each technically have the ability to use their taxpayer mid-level exception, which is worth $5,168,000 this season.

However, both clubs are operating so close to the second apron that using any portion of the taxpayer MLE would push team salary above that threshold, which isn’t permitted — a team that uses the taxpayer MLE can’t have a salary above the second apron upon the completion of the signing (or at any time after that).

Therefore, unless they make a move to shed salary, the Lakers and Heat will be limited to minimum-salary signings from here on out.

Over-the-cap teams that have used all their cap exceptions:

  • Denver Nuggets
  • Philadelphia 76ers

The Nuggets are currently operating between the first and second tax aprons and have already used their taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Dario Saric. Because the bi-annual exception isn’t available to teams above the first apron, Denver can no longer offer more than the veteran’s minimum.

The Sixers, meanwhile, used their entire room exception to re-sign Kelly Oubre after spending all their cap space. They’re now well over the cap and only have the minimum salary exception left to sign a free agent outright.

It’s worth noting that acquiring a player via sign-and-trade is technically a possibility prior to opening night for teams who have used up all their cap exceptions and want to add a free agent for more than the minimum. However, that’s not currently a practical option for either Denver or Philadelphia, who are both above the first tax apron.

Teams right up against their hard caps:

  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Golden State Warriors

The Mavericks have about $4.25MM of their mid-level exception still available after using a portion of it to sign Naji Marshall, and both Dallas and Golden State still have their full bi-annual exceptions on hand.

Based on the roster moves they’ve made so far this summer though, both the Mavs and Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron of $178,132,000 and are less than $1MM away from that hard cap. In other words, unless they shed salary by trading or waiving one or more of their current players, those two teams aren’t just prohibited from using their remaining exceptions — they’re also unable to add another minimum-salary player on a standard contract.

Dallas and Golden State are each carrying at least one player with a non-guaranteed salary, so it would technically be possible for, say, the Mavs to cut A.J. Lawson and then use a portion of their mid-level exception to sign a free agent. However, their breathing room below the hard cap is so limited that any signings above the minimum are unlikely, unless a cost-cutting trade generates more flexibility — the same goes for the Warriors.

Is It Time To Lower Expectations?

  • Perhaps it’s time for the Heat to look at the upcoming season with somewhat reduced expectations compared to previous seasons, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel opines. Avoiding the play-in tournament and winning at least one playoff series could rank as more reasonable goals than expecting to make a run to the Finals, given the current pecking order in the East, Winderman suggests.
  • Dru Smith currently holds one of the Heat‘s three tw0-way deals but there’s no assurances he’ll retain that contract, Winderman notes. Smith continues to recover from a knee injury and the team could create an open competition during training camp as they evaluate Smith’s status ahead of the Oct. 23 regular-season opener.

NBA 2024 Offseason Check-In: Miami Heat

Hoops Rumors is checking in on the 2024 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, recapping the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll take a look at each team’s offseason moves and consider what might still be coming before the regular season begins. Today, we’re focusing on the Miami Heat.


Free agent signings

  • Haywood Highsmith: Two years, $10,816,000. Re-signed using Bird rights.
  • Kevin Love: Two years, $8,000,000. Re-signed using Early Bird rights.
  • Thomas Bryant: One year, minimum salary. Re-signed using minimum salary exception. Waived right to veto trade.
  • Alec Burks: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Zyon Pullin: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Isaiah Stevens: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.

Trades

  • Acquired the draft rights to Pelle Larsson (No. 44 pick; from Rockets) and cash (from Hawks) in a three-team trade in exchange for the draft rights to Nikola Djurisic (No. 43 pick; to Hawks).

Draft picks

  • 1-15: Kel’el Ware
    • Signed to rookie scale contract (four years, $20,466,072).
  • 2-44: Pelle Larsson
    • Signed to three-year, minimum-salary contract ($5,408,801). First year guaranteed. Second year partially guaranteed. Third-year team option.

Two-way signings

Departed/unsigned free agents

Other moves

  • Signed Bam Adebayo to a three-year, maximum-salary veteran extension that begins in 2026/27. Projected value of $165,348,864. Includes third-year player option.
  • Waived Orlando Robinson.

Salary cap situation

  • Operating over the cap ($140.6MM), over the luxury tax line ($170.8MM), and between the first tax apron ($178.1MM) and second tax apron ($188.9MM).
  • Carrying approximately $184.8MM in salary.
  • No hard cap.
  • Taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.2MM) available, but can’t be used due to proximity to second apron.
  • One traded player exception frozen/unavailable (worth $6,477,319).

The offseason so far

For a second consecutive summer, the Heat entered the offseason facing the possibility of losing two key rotation players. After watching Gabe Vincent sign with the Lakers and Max Strus head to Cleveland in 2023, Miami saw Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith reach unrestricted free agency last month.

Technically, there were no cap restrictions preventing Miami from making aggressive bids to retain both players, but the Heat’s front office made it clear – based on its actions and via media reports – that it had no intention of hamstringing itself by surpassing the second tax apron, which would significantly limit the team’s ability to make moves on the trade market. As a result, the club had to hope that the market for Martin and Highsmith wasn’t robust and that the two wings might be inclined to return at a team-friendly price.

While neither Martin nor Highsmith landed as lucrative a contract as we might’ve expected at the start of the summer, Martin still exited Miami, signing with the conference rival Sixers. But the Heat were able to bring Highsmith back into the fold, agreeing to a two-year contract worth a little more than the taxpayer mid-level exception. It’s a good price for a talented defender whose offensive game has grown in the past couple years as he earned a spot in the team’s regular rotation.

After accounting for Highsmith’s deal, a new two-year, $8MM agreement with Kevin Love, and a rookie scale contract for No. 15 overall pick Kel’el Ware, the Heat had little flexibility to fill out the rest of their roster while operating under the second apron.

Using the taxpayer mid-level exception would’ve pushed Miami’s salary over the second apron, so the club had to settle for filling its remaining openings with minimum-salary signings. That included a new deal for returning big man Thomas Bryant, plus minimum-salary commitments to veteran guard Alec Burks and second-round pick Pelle Larsson. The team is currently carrying 14 players on standard contracts and is unable to add a 15th man without surpassing the second apron.

Burks is a solid value on a minimum deal, and based on the Heat’s recent track record in the draft, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ware and/or Larrson develop into reliable contributors sooner or later. I wasn’t as high on the deals with Love and Bryant, however.

Love’s first-year salary is $3.85MM, whereas if he had signed a one-year, minimum-salary contract, he would’ve earned about $3.3MM with a cap hit of $2.1MM. Clearly, the Heat felt they needed to go above the minimum and add a second year to bring one of their veteran leaders back in the fold, but it’s a bit of a tough pill to swallow when they have so little financial flexibility — a one-year minimum deal for Love would’ve provided more room to operate below the second apron, allowing for the addition of a 15th man.

Bryant, meanwhile, was in and out of the Heat’s rotation last season and looked like a player whose days in Miami were numbered. When he declined his minimum-salary player option in order to test the market, it appeared the Heat had lucked out, but perhaps he knew he’d have an offer from his former team waiting for him as a fallback option if he didn’t find a more favorable opportunity elsewhere. I was surprised the Heat re-signed Bryant, but it’s possible they expect to get more from the veteran center now that he has a year with the organization under his belt.

The one big-money move the Heat made this summer was to lock up defensive anchor Bam Adebayo to a three-year, maximum-salary extension. The deal doesn’t go into effect until 2026/27, so Adebayo is now under contract for at least the next four seasons, with a player option for 2028/29.

It’s not out of the question that Adebayo, who has finished in the top five of Defensive Player of the Year voting for five seasons in a row, could win the award in 2025. If he did – or if he made an All-NBA team – he would’ve become super-max eligible, so it made sense for the Heat to extend one of the league’s best big men sooner rather than later in order to eliminate the possibility of Adebayo increasing his maximum salary.


Up next

Things didn’t go as smoothly with the Heat’s other extension-eligible star this offseason as they did with Adebayo. Reports in the spring indicated that Jimmy Butler would be seeking a new maximum-salary deal; asked about those reports, Heat president Pat Riley expressed reluctance to put such an offer on the table for the 34-year-old, who has battled injuries in recent years.

Despite some trade speculation involving Butler, the situation didn’t come to a head this summer. The six-time All-Star remains committed to the Heat, but has indicated he’ll wait until next offseason – when he could become a free agent by turning down his 2025/26 player option – to sign a new contract. There’s nothing to resolve before the season begins, in other words, but this is a situation worth monitoring into the season in case things take a turn for the worse.

The Heat’s other extension-eligible veteran, Terry Rozier, seems unlikely to sign a new contract before the season begins. He’s still under contract for two more years and has only played 31 games with Miami since being acquired from Charlotte in a mid-season trade. The team will probably want to take a longer look at Rozier’s fit with the rest of the roster in before deciding whether to make a longer-term commitment to him.

The Heat’s 14-man standard roster looks good to go for the regular season, but it’s possible more changes will come to their two-way slots before opening night. Miami already made one offseason swap, signing Zyon Pullin to a two-way deal, then waiving him in favor of Summer League standout Josh Christopher. Christopher, Dru Smith, and Keshad Johnson currently occupy those two-way slots, but a strong preseason from Pullin, Isaiah Stevens, or another camp invitee could lead to another change.

Danilo Gallinari Seeking One Last NBA Opportunity

Danilo Gallinari is hoping for one more NBA season before he retires. The 36-year-old forward, who spent time with three teams last season, discussed his basketball future in an interview with Italian news outlet La Repubblica (translation via BasketNews).

“A return to Italy? Not yet,” Gallinari responded when asked about the possibility of joining the EuroLeague. “There is still time for [me in] the market, anything can happen at any time. Miami? It’s not my time yet, there are other free agents and we’ll decide later. It could be anywhere, as long as it’s a competitive franchise.”

Gallinari was viewed as a major free agent addition when he signed with Boston two years ago. However, a torn ACL prevented him from playing during the 2022/23 season and the Celtics decided to move on from him last summer, sending him to Washington as part of the three-team deal for Kristaps Porzingis.

Gallinari appeared in 26 games for the Wizards before traded to Detroit in January. He played six games for the Pistons and was waived shortly after the trade deadline. He signed with the Bucks in mid-February, but had a limited role, averaging just 9.1 minutes per night in 17 games. Overall, Gallinari got into 49 games during the season, scoring a career-low 5.7 PPG while shooting 43.7% from the field and 32.3% from three-point range.

He continued playing after the season ended, earning MVP honors in the Trentino Basketball Cup with the Italian national team. He is currently training with Treviglio in Italy and is likely headed for his final season as an active player, whether it happens in the NBA or elsewhere.

Gallinari said in the interview that once he’s retired, he would like to become a front office executive, hopefully with an NBA team.

Southeast Notes: Magic, Adebayo, Ware, Lambert

After tearing down the iteration of the team that featured the likes of Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, the Magic are finally moving toward where they want to be in the league’s hierarchy, Keith Smith of Spotrac writes. Headlined by Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, the Magic made the playoffs as the No. 5 seed. And while they didn’t necessarily go all-in this summer, they added an NBA champion and top-tier role player in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Banchero asserted recently that the Magic belong in the conversation about the East’s best teams. Assuming he, Wagner, Suggs and others continue to progress in linear fashion, that might be true. As Smith observes, the Magic don’t have a single untradable contract.

On the flip side of things, Orlando is still very young and added 2024 first-rounder Tristan Da Silva to a group of deep-bench reserves that also features Anthony Black and Jett Howard. While they aren’t necessarily on a two-timeline approach since their stars are all in their early 20s, the Magic continue to have intriguing upside for growth beyond their biggest names.

We have more from the Southeast Division:

  • The Heat‘s selection of center Kel’el Ware in this year’s draft could put the team in position to play Bam Adebayo at the power forward position more often. However, Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel believes that Adebayo won’t push for such a move and would be content with any opportunity to simply expand his game. Adebayo shot 35.7% on 42 three-point attempts last season and could increase that volume this season.
  • In a separate, subscriber-only story, Winderman ponders whether Ware is ready for – or deserving of – regular minutes as a rookie. The No. 15 overall pick averaged 18.3 points and 8.4 rebounds in Summer League, but ultimately Miami will decide when he’s ready for responsibility at the NBA level. In my view, the Heat have done an excellent job in assessing which rookies have been ready to contribute right away. For example, Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez quickly established themselves as rotation pieces despite varying levels of college experience. On the other hand, the club took a more patient approach to Nikola Jovic‘s insertion into the lineup while he fleshed out his defensive game.
  • The Hornets are hiring Ryan Lambert as their director of amateur scouting, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype (Twitter link). Lambert was previously with the Thunder since 2012, working his way up to a senior amateur evaluation scout position last season.