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Heat Notes: Oladipo, Martin, Salary Cap, Butler

September 11th, 2022 at 1:50pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The Heat are investing $15MM+ this season in Victor Oladipo and Caleb Martin in the hopes that both players can build on their encouraging 2021/22 runs. While Miami is certainly hoping guard Oladipo can get closer to his pre-injury All-Star heights this season, and that the 6’5″ Caleb Martin can convincingly play significant minutes as the team’s power forward, the team has a variety of other options to pick up the slack on its roster if neither scenario comes to pass, writes Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

As Winderman observes, guards Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Gabe Vincent make up a threatening backcourt rotation with or without Oladipo stepping up, and 6’7″ small forward Jimmy Butler will most likely at least finish games as Miami’s power forward.

There’s more out of South Beach:

  • On the heels of the news that the league’s salary cap is on track to increase over $10MM to a projected $134MM for 2023/24, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald notes that the Heat still won’t have much flexibility to add new players, given the $132.4MM Miami has locked in for just its five best players with guaranteed deals that season. Assuming Herro reaches a contract extension agreement with the club and a few other contracts remain on the team’s books, the club could quite possibly exceed the expected $162MM tax threshold in 2023/24, according to Jackson, who opines that the best way for Miami to make upgrades will be through trades, not free agency.
  • Butler was awarded a 93 overall player rating, the ninth-best among all players in the new video game NBA 2K23, writes Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Winderman notes that Butler’s score ties him with fellow All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Ja Morant.
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Extension Candidate: Tyler Herro

September 6th, 2022 at 2:54pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the first installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re getting underway with a look at the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year.

Rundown:

The No. 13 overall pick of the 2019 draft after one year at Kentucky, Tyler Herro made an immediate impact in 55 games (27.4 minutes) as a rookie, averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists on .428/.389/.870 shooting for a Heat team that came within two games of a championship. He had a strong playoff run in the Orlando bubble, bumping those averages up to 16.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG and 3.7 APG on .433/.375/.870 shooting in 21 contests (33.6 minutes).

Herro improved his counting stats during his second season in ‘20/21, averaging 15.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, though his efficiency declined slightly, with a .439/.360/.803 shooting line. As opposed to his strong postseason showing as a rookie, Herro, like the rest of Miami’s roster, struggled mightily while being swept by the Bucks in the first round, averaging just 9.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 1.8 APG on .316/.316/1.000 shooting in four games (23.3 minutes).

Herro emerged as the league’s most dangerous bench scorer last season, winning the Sixth Man of the Year award after appearing in 66 games (32.6 minutes) while averaging 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists on .447/.399/.868 shooting. However, he once again struggled in the playoffs with defenses more focused on slowing him down, averaging 12.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on .409/.229/.926 shooting in 15 contests (25.4 minutes).

Strengths:

Among players who officially qualified, Herro ranked 21st in the NBA in points per game last season. He is someone opposing defenses are forced to game-plan against.

His primary skill is that he’s an excellent shooter from all over the court, ranking in the 63rd percentile from mid-range, 87th on threes, and 87th from the free throw line, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The threat of Herro’s shooting creates space for teammates, which is really important for a Heat team that struggles at times to space the floor. For as valuable as they are at basically every other aspect of basketball, neither Jimmy Butler nor Bam Adebayo is a three-point threat, so Miami’s offense can be a bit crowded at times, especially in half court settings.

Herro isn’t just a shooter either, as he shows some impressive play-making chops at times. He’s capable of creating high-quality looks for himself and others on both scripted plays and on the fly.

He posted a 21% assist percentage last season, which was in the 79th percentile of all players. He has good vision and is capable of making difficult one-handed cross-court passes, though he definitely looks for his own shot more often than not.

Herro is capable of acting as a lead ball-handler in spot minutes, and while he isn’t the greatest decision-maker yet (1.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he shows flashes of being able to handle those duties. He’s also a solid rebounder, especially on the defensive glass, with a 15% defensive rebounding rate (59th percentile).

Improvement Areas:

Physical limitations will likely always be an issue for Herro, which is something that’s mostly out of his control. Though he has decent height for a shooting guard at 6’5”, his wingspan is only 6’4”, he isn’t the greatest athlete, and he isn’t the strongest player, leading to him getting pushed around at times.

Those limitations show up in two key areas. The first is that he’s a below-the-rim finisher, and while he has good touch on floaters, he rarely gets all the way to the rim.

According to Basketball-Reference, only 13.7% of Herro’s shots came within three feet of the basket, compared to 27.9% of his looks from 10 feet to the three-point line. He prefers to shoot pull-ups rather than initiating contact in the paint.

The fact that he attempts so many mid-rangers and doesn’t get to the line a ton hurts his overall efficiency (of the 27 players who qualified for the scoring title and averaged at least 20 points, Herro was 25th in free throw attempts). His true shooting percentage (56.1%) was a little below league average (56.6%) last season.

The second area that Herro really needs to improve upon is his defense, which has been particularly problematic in the playoffs. He has been repeatedly targeted as a weak defensive link in each of his three postseason trips.

Opponents shot better (45.7%) than expected (44.8%) with Herro defending them in the regular season, and that gap grew during the playoffs (rivals shot 48.9% versus 46% expected), per NBA.com. And that’s with Herro coming off the bench and the Heat trying to hide him on the opposing teams’ weakest offensive players.

Out of 67 players who averaged at least 32 minutes and appeared in at least 30 games, Herro ranked 62nd in deflections per game with 1.2. He rarely draws charges, and averaged less than one stock (steals plus blocks) per game last season, which is quite poor (0.7 SPG and 0.1 BPG). His steal percentage (1.0%) ranked in the 21st percentile of all players, and his block percentage (0.4%) was in the ninth percentile, per DunksAndThrees.

Conclusion:

Young players are inherently polarizing because they are not finished products. When you watch them play, you’re ideally looking for positive traits that can be translated into future success, but it’s easy to lose sight of that if they’re on a good team and play a big role.

That’s especially true of Herro, even if it’s a little unfair to someone who’s still only 22 years old. More than most former first-round picks still on their rookie deals, Herro is an eye-of-the-beholder player due to his distinct strengths and weaknesses, some of which have been put under a bigger spotlight because of his team’s success.

Anfernee Simons set the market for emerging young guards this summer with a four-year, $100MM deal as a restricted free agent. That’s probably Herro’s floor for his next contract.

If the Heat believe Herro will continue improving and is worthy of a significant long-term investment, I could see him exceeding RJ Barrett’s deal with the Knicks, which is reportedly worth $107MM guaranteed over four years with unlikely incentives pushing it up to a possible $120MM.

If they want to continue to keep their options open and possibly deal him during the season, the Heat would be wise not to extend Herro to avoid the “poison pill provision,” which would make trading him extremely difficult. Miami would still have the ability to match any offer he might receive as a restricted free agent in 2023.

The risk of not extending him, assuming his agents are open to accepting less than a maximum-salary deal right now, is there’s a non-zero chance he gets a max as a restricted free agent next summer. A four-year maximum contract from a rival team is projected to be worth $142,975,000.

Giving Herro around $30MM a year would lock in an expensive core of Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Kyle Lowry for at least the next two seasons (Lowry is a free agent in 2024). Having said that, extending Herro now could make moving him in the 2023 offseason easier for the Heat in some ways – he’d already be trade-eligible, and his larger contract would make salary-matching for another star less tricky than it is on the end of his rookie deal.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

September 6th, 2022 at 9:11am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to resume an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll begin our series today with the Southeast division…

Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte Hornets

Washington Wizards

Orlando Magic

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Tim Hardaway Defends Kyle Lowry; Examining If Heat Will Be Active Before Trade Deadline

September 4th, 2022 at 7:16pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Heat legend Tim Hardaway defended Kyle Lowry over allegations that he weighed too much this season, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel writes. Lowry still managed to have a respectable season, though he dealt with an injury throughout the playoffs that limited his availability and effectiveness.
  • In his latest “Ask Ira” mailbag, Ira Winderman examines whether the Heat may be active ahead of the trade deadline this year. Heat president Pat Riley is known for being open to making major changes, but Miami decided to stand pat this offseason (except for losing P.J. Tucker to Philadelphia). Since Miami has multiple undersized options at power forward, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team make a trade — even though it has plenty of talent.
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Examining If Heat Can Win Big With Similar Roster

September 3rd, 2022 at 2:45pm CST by JD Shaw
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Heat Notes: Herro, Crowder, Mitchell

September 2nd, 2022 at 6:49pm CST by Rory Maher

With Donovan Mitchell heading to Cleveland, the odds of the Heat giving Tyler Herro a rookie scale extension have seemingly increased, according to Barry Jackson and Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.

As Jackson and Chiang write, the Heat were keeping their options open, but with Kevin Durant agreeing to stick with the Nets, at least for now, and Mitchell off the table, there aren’t any obvious star players to target in a trade.

The reason Herro likely hasn’t received an extension to this point is due to the “poison pill provision,” and our Luke Adams actually used Herro as an example of why extending him would make trading him extremely difficult in our updated glossary entry.

If he theoretically received a four-year, $120MM extension, then Herro’s 2022/23 salary of $5,722,116 would count as the Heat’s outgoing salary figure in a trade, but any team acquiring Herro would have to view his incoming value as $25,144,423 — that’s the annual average of the five years and $125,722,116 he has left when accounting for both his current contract and his (hypothetical) new extension.

The Heat have given extensions to players on rookie contracts in the past, including Bam Adebayo, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, Jackson and Chiang note.

Here’s more from Miami:

  • Jae Crowder remains a possible trade target to upgrade the power forward spot after losing P.J. Tucker in free agency, per Jackson and Chiang, who note Crowder “holds some appeal” to Miami. However, the Suns haven’t indicated they want to move him, and acquiring him would be complicated and require multiple players because the Heat don’t have anyone who is currently trade-eligible to cleanly match Crowder’s $10.18MM expiring salary in a one-for-one deal.
  • According to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix (Twitter link), the Heat never made a formal offer for Mitchell. It’s worth noting that Gambadoro was the first to report that the Cavaliers, who ultimately acquired Mitchell, were pursuing him, so he seemed to have pretty good connections on the situation.
  • Meeting Utah’s high asking price for Mitchell reeks of a team “desperate to be relevant,” argues Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun-Sentinel, who says the Heat didn’t need to acquire the star guard because they’re already relevant. According to Winderman, Durant was worthy of pushing all the chips in the center for because he’s a “generational talent,” but that isn’t the case for Mitchell.
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Heat Notes: Morris, PF Options, Herro, Haslem

August 31st, 2022 at 5:15pm CST by Arthur Hill

The departure of Markieff Morris, who agreed to a deal with the Nets on Tuesday, means the Heat‘s revolving door at power forward will continue, writes Ira Winderman of The Sun-Sentinel. Morris and P.J. Tucker, who were free agent additions last summer, both signed elsewhere during the offseason. Winderman notes that Miami has been through eight power forwards since Bam Adebayo became the starting center in 2019/20.

Morris’ departure was virtually assured when Udonis Haslem announced last week that he was returning for a 20th season, Winderman adds. Miami will keep one roster spot open due to luxury tax concerns, so there was no room for Morris once fellow free agents Caleb Martin, Victor Oladipo and Dewayne Dedmon all reached new deals.

Martin, who is expected to replace Tucker as the starting power forward, re-signed with Miami for its full taxpayer mid-level exception and will receive $20.4MM over the next three years. He was reportedly about to get a better offer from a rival team, but he preferred to remain with the Heat. Winderman points out that if Tucker had taken the MLE, Miami’s starting point on a new deal with Martin would have been limited to the $4.1MM bi-annual exception.

There’s more on the Heat:

  • Utah’s Bojan Bogdanovic and Atlanta’s John Collins are players to watch if the Heat decide to trade for a power forward, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Jazz haven’t expressed a desire to part with Bogdanovic, but he has a $19.5MM expiring contract and could become expendable if Utah commits to rebuilding. The Hawks have explored the trade market for Collins, but he has an expensive contract that pays him more than $75MM over the next three seasons, along with a $26.6MM player option for 2025/26. Jackson doesn’t believe Miami should give up a first-round pick for either player.
  • The Knicks’ extension agreement with RJ Barrett is likely to be similar to what the Heat offer Tyler Herro if he’s not traded, Winderman adds in a separate piece. Herro is eligible for a five-year max extension worth up to $188MM, but Winderman expects his final deal to be more in line with Barrett, whose four-year deal can be worth up to $120MM if he earns several bonuses.
  • Suns star Chris Paul supports Haslem’s decision to play another season, per Joseph Zucker of Bleacher Report. “You all saw that stuff with Udonis Haslem? Y’all heard everyone talking crazy about him like, ‘Why he on the team? Why he on the team?’ Man, I’m probably his biggest fan,” Paul said to a group of high school players in Los Angeles (video link). “You want to know why? Because young guys need vets. They need somebody like UD showing up every day, if practice at 11:00, he’s probably at the gym at 8:30 every day. To motivate guys. To push guys.”
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Heat Notes: Mitchell, Potter, Eastern Conference, Lineups

August 28th, 2022 at 3:26pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

With Nets forward Kevin Durant off the table as a trade target for the time being, the Heat could look elsewhere for All-Star reinforcements. In a mailbag, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel discusses alternatives, including Jazz All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell. Winderman does not consider the undersized shooting guard to be worth a package centered around reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro and future draft picks.

Winderman also notes that the Heat should be cautious when it comes to trading forward Duncan Robinson, who will earn $16.9MM in 2022/23 after falling out of the club’s rotation near the end of last season due to his defensive shortcomings. Winderman notes that Robinson’s contract could be crucial as an inclusion for a trade to acquire a maximum-salaried superstar. Herro remains on his rookie deal, and will make just $5.7MM this season.

There’s more out of South Beach:

  • In another mailbag, Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reflects on the recent decision by the Heat’s NBAGL affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce, to offload Micah Potter to the Pistons’ G League club, the Motor City Cruise. Winderman writes that the decision ultimately came down to which players Miami is prioritizing developing, noting that other prospects – including Orlando Robinson – took priority over Potter.
  • Now that the Nets are, at least for now, stabilizing and whole heading into the 2022/23 season, Winderman wonders if Brooklyn has leapfrogged Miami in the Eastern Conference pecking order and explores just how dangerous the Nets coul dbe.
  • Even beyond the departure of starting power forward P.J. Tucker, the Heat’s rotation could look markedly different than it did during the 2021/22 NBA season, when a top-seeded Miami club pushed the Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, Winderman writes in another Sun Sentinel story. As Winderman observes, 6’5″ Caleb Martin appears to be the current leader in the competition to become Miami’s new starting power forward, though that situation remains fluid with training camp still ahead of the team. Miami’s internal search for its starting swingman next to point guard Kyle Lowry and small forward/shooting guard Jimmy Butler also remains fairly open, with several intriguing candidates on the roster.
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Heat Weren’t Aggressive In Pursuit Of Kevin Durant

August 28th, 2022 at 11:56am CST by Arthur Hill

Kevin Durant reportedly listed Miami as one of his preferred destinations when he demanded a trade from the Nets, but the Heat didn’t make a strong effort to acquire him, Shams Charania of The Athletic said in an appearance on the Stugotz podcast.

Heat officials believed it would cost too much of their roster to trade for Durant, added Charania, who said that the last contact between the two teams regarding Durant occurred either before or during Summer League.

Charania noted that Miami reached Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season and didn’t see a need for major changes. He pointed to hypothetical trades involving Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro or Adebayo, Max Strus and another player and asked whether that really gets Miami any closer to winning a title.

On top of that, any consideration of trading Adebayo would have been limited by the designated rookie extension rule, which would have prevented the Nets from having both him and Ben Simmons on their roster at the same time. A third team would have been needed to complete a deal, which made the prospects of a trade even less realistic.

Durant also was interested in joining the Suns, but Charania hears that Brooklyn didn’t want Deandre Ayton in return. Ayton became ineligible for a sign-and-trade this summer after Phoenix matched his offer sheet from the Pacers.

Charania said there were opportunities to deal Durant, but no one was willing to meet the Nets’ asking price. The Celtics wouldn’t part with Marcus Smart or Robert Williams along with Jaylen Brown, while the Raptors weren’t willing to include Scottie Barnes in trade talks. Charania said Brooklyn could have made a deal that was heavy on draft compensation with the Suns, Grizzlies or Timberwolves before they sent their assets to Utah for Rudy Gobert, but the Nets were only interested in trades that would keep them competitive.

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Eastern Notes: Harrell, Heat, Jovic, Nets, R. Williams

August 27th, 2022 at 3:43pm CST by JD Shaw

The Heat could have benefited from signing free agent big man Montrezl Harrell this summer, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel opines in an “Ask Ira” mailbag. While the Heat could still theoretically sign him, they re-signed Udonis Haslem last week, which means they can’t add another player to their regular season roster without going into the luxury tax.

Winderman believes the Heat could use Harrell’s size and energy. However, his inability to shoot from distance could make him an awkward fit, especially when playing alongside a non-shooter in Bam Adebayo.

Harrell split the 2021/22 season with the Wizards and Hornets, averaging 13.1 points and 6.1 rebounds in 23.1 minutes per game. The Heat lost starting power forward P.J. Tucker to the Sixers last month and have a number of undersized options they can play at the four, including Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin. Other East contenders such as the Celtics and Bucks start bigger lineups featuring Al Horford and Giannis Antetokounmpo, respectively, at power forward.

Here are some other notes from the Eastern Conference:

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