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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

September 6th, 2022 at 9:11am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to resume an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll begin our series today with the Southeast division…

Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte Hornets

Washington Wizards

Orlando Magic

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Tim Hardaway Defends Kyle Lowry; Examining If Heat Will Be Active Before Trade Deadline

September 4th, 2022 at 7:16pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Heat legend Tim Hardaway defended Kyle Lowry over allegations that he weighed too much this season, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel writes. Lowry still managed to have a respectable season, though he dealt with an injury throughout the playoffs that limited his availability and effectiveness.
  • In his latest “Ask Ira” mailbag, Ira Winderman examines whether the Heat may be active ahead of the trade deadline this year. Heat president Pat Riley is known for being open to making major changes, but Miami decided to stand pat this offseason (except for losing P.J. Tucker to Philadelphia). Since Miami has multiple undersized options at power forward, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team make a trade — even though it has plenty of talent.
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Examining If Heat Can Win Big With Similar Roster

September 3rd, 2022 at 2:45pm CST by JD Shaw
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Heat Notes: Herro, Crowder, Mitchell

September 2nd, 2022 at 6:49pm CST by Rory Maher

With Donovan Mitchell heading to Cleveland, the odds of the Heat giving Tyler Herro a rookie scale extension have seemingly increased, according to Barry Jackson and Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.

As Jackson and Chiang write, the Heat were keeping their options open, but with Kevin Durant agreeing to stick with the Nets, at least for now, and Mitchell off the table, there aren’t any obvious star players to target in a trade.

The reason Herro likely hasn’t received an extension to this point is due to the “poison pill provision,” and our Luke Adams actually used Herro as an example of why extending him would make trading him extremely difficult in our updated glossary entry.

If he theoretically received a four-year, $120MM extension, then Herro’s 2022/23 salary of $5,722,116 would count as the Heat’s outgoing salary figure in a trade, but any team acquiring Herro would have to view his incoming value as $25,144,423 — that’s the annual average of the five years and $125,722,116 he has left when accounting for both his current contract and his (hypothetical) new extension.

The Heat have given extensions to players on rookie contracts in the past, including Bam Adebayo, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, Jackson and Chiang note.

Here’s more from Miami:

  • Jae Crowder remains a possible trade target to upgrade the power forward spot after losing P.J. Tucker in free agency, per Jackson and Chiang, who note Crowder “holds some appeal” to Miami. However, the Suns haven’t indicated they want to move him, and acquiring him would be complicated and require multiple players because the Heat don’t have anyone who is currently trade-eligible to cleanly match Crowder’s $10.18MM expiring salary in a one-for-one deal.
  • According to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix (Twitter link), the Heat never made a formal offer for Mitchell. It’s worth noting that Gambadoro was the first to report that the Cavaliers, who ultimately acquired Mitchell, were pursuing him, so he seemed to have pretty good connections on the situation.
  • Meeting Utah’s high asking price for Mitchell reeks of a team “desperate to be relevant,” argues Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun-Sentinel, who says the Heat didn’t need to acquire the star guard because they’re already relevant. According to Winderman, Durant was worthy of pushing all the chips in the center for because he’s a “generational talent,” but that isn’t the case for Mitchell.
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Heat Notes: Morris, PF Options, Herro, Haslem

August 31st, 2022 at 5:15pm CST by Arthur Hill

The departure of Markieff Morris, who agreed to a deal with the Nets on Tuesday, means the Heat‘s revolving door at power forward will continue, writes Ira Winderman of The Sun-Sentinel. Morris and P.J. Tucker, who were free agent additions last summer, both signed elsewhere during the offseason. Winderman notes that Miami has been through eight power forwards since Bam Adebayo became the starting center in 2019/20.

Morris’ departure was virtually assured when Udonis Haslem announced last week that he was returning for a 20th season, Winderman adds. Miami will keep one roster spot open due to luxury tax concerns, so there was no room for Morris once fellow free agents Caleb Martin, Victor Oladipo and Dewayne Dedmon all reached new deals.

Martin, who is expected to replace Tucker as the starting power forward, re-signed with Miami for its full taxpayer mid-level exception and will receive $20.4MM over the next three years. He was reportedly about to get a better offer from a rival team, but he preferred to remain with the Heat. Winderman points out that if Tucker had taken the MLE, Miami’s starting point on a new deal with Martin would have been limited to the $4.1MM bi-annual exception.

There’s more on the Heat:

  • Utah’s Bojan Bogdanovic and Atlanta’s John Collins are players to watch if the Heat decide to trade for a power forward, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Jazz haven’t expressed a desire to part with Bogdanovic, but he has a $19.5MM expiring contract and could become expendable if Utah commits to rebuilding. The Hawks have explored the trade market for Collins, but he has an expensive contract that pays him more than $75MM over the next three seasons, along with a $26.6MM player option for 2025/26. Jackson doesn’t believe Miami should give up a first-round pick for either player.
  • The Knicks’ extension agreement with RJ Barrett is likely to be similar to what the Heat offer Tyler Herro if he’s not traded, Winderman adds in a separate piece. Herro is eligible for a five-year max extension worth up to $188MM, but Winderman expects his final deal to be more in line with Barrett, whose four-year deal can be worth up to $120MM if he earns several bonuses.
  • Suns star Chris Paul supports Haslem’s decision to play another season, per Joseph Zucker of Bleacher Report. “You all saw that stuff with Udonis Haslem? Y’all heard everyone talking crazy about him like, ‘Why he on the team? Why he on the team?’ Man, I’m probably his biggest fan,” Paul said to a group of high school players in Los Angeles (video link). “You want to know why? Because young guys need vets. They need somebody like UD showing up every day, if practice at 11:00, he’s probably at the gym at 8:30 every day. To motivate guys. To push guys.”
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Heat Notes: Mitchell, Potter, Eastern Conference, Lineups

August 28th, 2022 at 3:26pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

With Nets forward Kevin Durant off the table as a trade target for the time being, the Heat could look elsewhere for All-Star reinforcements. In a mailbag, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel discusses alternatives, including Jazz All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell. Winderman does not consider the undersized shooting guard to be worth a package centered around reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro and future draft picks.

Winderman also notes that the Heat should be cautious when it comes to trading forward Duncan Robinson, who will earn $16.9MM in 2022/23 after falling out of the club’s rotation near the end of last season due to his defensive shortcomings. Winderman notes that Robinson’s contract could be crucial as an inclusion for a trade to acquire a maximum-salaried superstar. Herro remains on his rookie deal, and will make just $5.7MM this season.

There’s more out of South Beach:

  • In another mailbag, Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reflects on the recent decision by the Heat’s NBAGL affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce, to offload Micah Potter to the Pistons’ G League club, the Motor City Cruise. Winderman writes that the decision ultimately came down to which players Miami is prioritizing developing, noting that other prospects – including Orlando Robinson – took priority over Potter.
  • Now that the Nets are, at least for now, stabilizing and whole heading into the 2022/23 season, Winderman wonders if Brooklyn has leapfrogged Miami in the Eastern Conference pecking order and explores just how dangerous the Nets coul dbe.
  • Even beyond the departure of starting power forward P.J. Tucker, the Heat’s rotation could look markedly different than it did during the 2021/22 NBA season, when a top-seeded Miami club pushed the Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, Winderman writes in another Sun Sentinel story. As Winderman observes, 6’5″ Caleb Martin appears to be the current leader in the competition to become Miami’s new starting power forward, though that situation remains fluid with training camp still ahead of the team. Miami’s internal search for its starting swingman next to point guard Kyle Lowry and small forward/shooting guard Jimmy Butler also remains fairly open, with several intriguing candidates on the roster.
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Heat Weren’t Aggressive In Pursuit Of Kevin Durant

August 28th, 2022 at 11:56am CST by Arthur Hill

Kevin Durant reportedly listed Miami as one of his preferred destinations when he demanded a trade from the Nets, but the Heat didn’t make a strong effort to acquire him, Shams Charania of The Athletic said in an appearance on the Stugotz podcast.

Heat officials believed it would cost too much of their roster to trade for Durant, added Charania, who said that the last contact between the two teams regarding Durant occurred either before or during Summer League.

Charania noted that Miami reached Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season and didn’t see a need for major changes. He pointed to hypothetical trades involving Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro or Adebayo, Max Strus and another player and asked whether that really gets Miami any closer to winning a title.

On top of that, any consideration of trading Adebayo would have been limited by the designated rookie extension rule, which would have prevented the Nets from having both him and Ben Simmons on their roster at the same time. A third team would have been needed to complete a deal, which made the prospects of a trade even less realistic.

Durant also was interested in joining the Suns, but Charania hears that Brooklyn didn’t want Deandre Ayton in return. Ayton became ineligible for a sign-and-trade this summer after Phoenix matched his offer sheet from the Pacers.

Charania said there were opportunities to deal Durant, but no one was willing to meet the Nets’ asking price. The Celtics wouldn’t part with Marcus Smart or Robert Williams along with Jaylen Brown, while the Raptors weren’t willing to include Scottie Barnes in trade talks. Charania said Brooklyn could have made a deal that was heavy on draft compensation with the Suns, Grizzlies or Timberwolves before they sent their assets to Utah for Rudy Gobert, but the Nets were only interested in trades that would keep them competitive.

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Eastern Notes: Harrell, Heat, Jovic, Nets, R. Williams

August 27th, 2022 at 3:43pm CST by JD Shaw

The Heat could have benefited from signing free agent big man Montrezl Harrell this summer, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel opines in an “Ask Ira” mailbag. While the Heat could still theoretically sign him, they re-signed Udonis Haslem last week, which means they can’t add another player to their regular season roster without going into the luxury tax.

Winderman believes the Heat could use Harrell’s size and energy. However, his inability to shoot from distance could make him an awkward fit, especially when playing alongside a non-shooter in Bam Adebayo.

Harrell split the 2021/22 season with the Wizards and Hornets, averaging 13.1 points and 6.1 rebounds in 23.1 minutes per game. The Heat lost starting power forward P.J. Tucker to the Sixers last month and have a number of undersized options they can play at the four, including Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin. Other East contenders such as the Celtics and Bucks start bigger lineups featuring Al Horford and Giannis Antetokounmpo, respectively, at power forward.

Here are some other notes from the Eastern Conference:

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And-Ones: Bjelica, Offseason Business, 2023 Draft, More

August 25th, 2022 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

Serbian forward Nemanja Bjelica has been ruled out for this week’s World Cup qualifiers due to a calf injury and is considered questionable for the upcoming EuroBasket tournament, as Johnny Askounis of Eurohoops details.

Bjelica, who signed with Turkish club Fenerbahce this offseason after winning a title with Golden State, will miss Serbia’s contest against Greece today, as well as Sunday’s game vs. Turkey. Serbia’s EuroBasket schedule will tip off on Friday, September 2 against the Netherlands.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • With the Kevin Durant saga settled, at least for now, John Hollinger of The Athletic considers what leftover offseason business we could see addressed in the coming weeks. The Lakers, Pacers, Jazz, Heat, Raptors, and Nets are among the teams that may still have some roster moves to make, Hollinger writes.
  • Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report shares scouting reports for his top 15 prospects in the 2023 NBA draft class, breaking down the strengths and weaknesses of players like Texas big man Dillon Mitchell and Duke center Dereck Lively in addition to the usual suspects like Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.
  • Exactly how much does an NBA win cost? Mike Vorkunov and Seth Partnow of The Athletic make an effort to answer that question, with Partnow outlining a “wins/dollars efficiency model” and then explaining why such a model has its shortcomings.
  • Katie Heindl of GlobalSportMatters.com takes a look at how the NBA has increased the diversity in its coaching ranks without the need for a rule like the NFL’s “Rooney Rule.”
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Knicks, Nets, Heat Are Donovan Mitchell’s Preferred Destinations If He’s Traded

August 25th, 2022 at 9:03am CST by Luke Adams

Donovan Mitchell hasn’t asked the Jazz to trade him, but if he were to be dealt, he would prefer to end up with the Knicks, Nets, or Heat, sources tell Tony Jones of The Athletic.

The Knicks, of course, are viewed as Mitchell’s top suitor, and while Brooklyn and Miami have also been mentioned as possible landing spots, those teams aren’t as well positioned to swing a trade for the All-Star guard. The Nets can’t trade for Mitchell as long as Ben Simmons remains on the roster due to the designated rookie extension rule, while the Heat “simply don’t have the assets that the Jazz are looking for,” according to Jones.

The Jazz are said to be seeking a significant haul of first-round picks in any Mitchell deal, which is why the Knicks are viewed as a frontrunner. New York has acquired four protected first-rounders from other teams and also has all of its own picks available.

The Heat, on the other hand, don’t have any extra first-rounders and have traded their own 2025 pick to Oklahoma City. Given the restrictions imposed by the Stepien rule, Miami could only offer three first-round picks in a package for Mitchell, while New York could trade up to eight.

Although the Knicks have long been linked to Mitchell and have had ongoing trade discussions with the Jazz, the two teams aren’t close to a deal, says Jones.

Utah has also spoken to other suitors and has multiple offers on the table that the front office feels are worth exploring if talks with the Knicks don’t work out, sources tell The Athletic. The Hornets, Wizards, and Cavaliers are among the other teams that have been reported by multiple outlets as possible suitors for Mitchell.

If the Jazz don’t get an offer they like from the Knicks or one of those other potential trade partners, they’re comfortable entering the season with Mitchell on their roster. According to Jones, the club believes it’s in a good position to retool the roster around Mitchell and is more inclined to take that route than to accept “90 cents on the dollar” for the three-time All-Star.

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