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Lottery Races To Watch During Season’s Final Week

May 10th, 2021 at 2:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.

The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.

With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:

The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot

It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.

Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.

The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.

If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.

The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs

The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).

The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.

While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.

Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–
3	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–
4	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.7	2.2	–	–
5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.7	0.6	–
6	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1

When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.

In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”

For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.

Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.

The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot

The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.

Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.

Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.

For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.

Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.

Warriors Notes: Toscano-Anderson, Wiseman, Paschall, Wolves’ Pick

May 8th, 2021 at 10:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Juan Toscano-Anderson, who is expected to be promoted to the Warriors‘ 15-man roster next week after playing on a two-way contract all season, has impressed coach Steve Kerr with the way he plays the game, writes Marcus White of NBC Sports Bay Area. In a radio interview Friday, Kerr praised Toscano-Anderson for sticking to his NBA dream.

“Twenty-eight years old, he’s bounced around the entire world playing basketball, and I think our fans love him,” Kerr said. “I know we love him as a coaching staff. The guy just gets it. He plays with great energy, he’s smart, he’s tough. He’s improved his skill now as a passer and a shooter to a point where he’s really making a lot of plays out there for us.”

Toscano-Anderson has become a more efficient shooter from everywhere on the court in his second NBA season, White points out. He’s also part of Golden State’s lineup with the best net rating and best offensive rating.

“(When) a guy knows how to play and he can guard multiple spots, he can play in any combination, and that’s his real value to our team,” Kerr said. “He’s not dependent on a certain combination. In pretty much every case, he makes whatever combination he’s with better.”

There’s more on the Warriors:

Kerr said rookie center James Wiseman is in “great spirits” following meniscus surgery last month, White adds in a separate story. It’s not certain that Wiseman will be ready for the start of training camp, but Kerr said he plans to rehab at the team facility during the offseason. “James is a really willing athlete. Willing, patient. He wants to be here,” Kerr said. “He wants to get better however he can, so we’ll give him every opportunity to improve — both on the floor once he’s ready to get out there, but also obviously in the training room and in the weight room.”
The team isn’t sure if Eric Paschall will return before the end of the regular season, tweets Kendra Andrews of NBC Sports Bay Area. Recovering from a hip flexor strain, Paschall has been able to scrimmage but has barely practiced and is considered day to day.
This year probably presents the best chance for Golden State to earn maximum value from the Timberwolves‘ first-round pick, says Connor Letourneau of The San Francisco Chronicle. Minnesota’s selection is top-three protected in 2021 and unprotected in 2022, but the Wolves have shown signs of improvement and may not be among the league’s worst teams next season. Minnesota is tied for second in our current Reverse Standings, but could move “down” several spots with a strong finish. If the Wolves have the league’s second- or third-worst record, the Warriors will have nearly a 60% chance of seeing the pick convey this year.

Northwest Notes: Edwards, Wolves’ Sale, K. Williams, Jokic

May 8th, 2021 at 7:45pm CST by Arthur Hill

Karl-Anthony Towns sees Timberwolves teammate Anthony Edwards as a clear choice for Rookie of the Year, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. Edwards had a slow start to his first NBA season, but he has been on a torrid pace lately, averaging 30.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists in his last four games while shooting 48% from three-point range. Edwards and Hornets guard LaMelo Ball are the leading contenders for top rookie honors, but Towns doesn’t see it as a close race.

“There ain’t no other rookie in this league getting double-teamed. There ain’t no other rookie putting up the numbers Ant is. There ain’t no other rookie causing the havoc and mayhem before the game even starts with the scouting reports like Anthony is,” Towns said. “But I don’t want to hear nothing about no other people who are rookies. I don’t want to hear that. I don’t go by hype, I go by stats.”

There’s more from the Northwest Division:

Everyone involved in the proposed sale of the Timberwolves remains confident that a deal will be completed, Krawczynski notes in a profile of prospective new co-owner Marc Lore. He and Alex Rodriguez are nearing the end of a 30-day exclusive negotiating window to finalize the purchase of the team.
Kenrich Williams wasn’t certain to win a roster spot with the Thunder in training camp, but now he seems like part of the team’s future, according to Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. Williams was considered salary filler when Oklahoma City acquired him from the Pelicans as part of the Steven Adams deal in November. He has earned a spot in the rotation and is averaging 7.7 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in 21.5 minutes per night. “I’ve solidified my role as far as what I can be in this league,” Williams said. “My first two years I felt like I was just a pretty solid defender, solid all-around player, but offensively is where I wanted to take that next jump.”
The close relationship between Nuggets coach Michael Malone and MVP candidate Nikola Jokic has helped the organization develop a championship culture, writes Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post. After six years together, they have created a belief throughout the organization that Denver can challenge for a title. “The guy gave me everything,” Jokic said of Malone. “The guy gave me the freedom, he led me, he showed me the way. And we built a great relationship, not just he’s the coach and I’m a player. We are friends, too. It’s more than basketball.”

And-Ones: Brown, Bates, Afflalo, All-Underrated Team

May 7th, 2021 at 7:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Milwaukee Common Council has approved a $750K settlement in a lawsuit brought by former Bucks player Sterling Brown over his 2018 arrest, according to an Associated Press report. Brown was taken to the ground and shocked with a Taser after he was approached by police over a parking violation.

As part of the settlement, Brown was given an apology from the city and Milwaukee police that “recognizes that the incident escalated in an unnecessary manner and despite Mr. Brown’s calm behavior.” It also requires the city to commit to changes in the police department’s standard operating procedures. Brown is currently playing for the Rockets.

We have more news and notes from around the basketball world:

High school star Emoni Bates decommitted from Michigan State and ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeff Borzello take a look at where Bates might end up. Bates, who is currently attending a prep school created by his father, won’t be eligible for the draft until 2023. Numerous colleges have made offers to Bates after he decommitted but he still has another year to go before he pursue that route. He could take the G League route if he graduates this spring but would have to stay there for two years due to the NBA’s age limit.
Former NBA player Arron Afflalo was part of a group that tried to purchase the Timberwolves and Afflalo is continuing to seek other opportunities to become a part-owner of a franchise. The Athletic’s David Aldridge spoke with Afflalo about his conversations with the Timberwolves and other topics.
Rudy Gobert, Jrue Holiday and De’Anthony Melton top the list of players on John Hollinger’s All-Underrated Team. The Athletic columnist lists his top 10 in that category, plus another group of that made his Honorable Mention list.

Northwest Notes: Wolves, Clarkson, Jokic, Rivers

May 7th, 2021 at 12:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Asked this week during an appearance on The Star Tribune’s Daily Delivery podcast about the trade that sent Andrew Wiggins and a lightly-protected first-round pick to Golden State in exchange for D’Angelo Russell at the 2020 trade deadline, Timberwolves president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas expressed no regrets, writes Michael Rand of The Star Tribune.

Even if Rosas – with the Timberwolves in position to give up a possible top-five pick to the Warriors – was having second thoughts about the trade, it’s not as if he’d be inclined to admit as much during a podcast appearance. But Rand said he felt as if the Wolves’ president was being honest and forthright in his assessment of the deal.

“As of now, I think our resurgence has happened with D’Angelo’s return, so that’s paying dividends now,” Rosas said. “We put the protection in the pick that we felt like was critical to keeping the pick. At some point you’re going to give the pick up whether it’s this year or next year. We’re firm believers. We did it for a purpose. We’re seeing the return on that deal now.”

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

After bouncing from Los Angeles to Cleveland to Utah during his first few NBA seasons, Jordan Clarkson has found an ideal fit with the Jazz, Tony Jones of The Athletic writes in an extensive look at the Sixth Man of the Year candidate. “The organization has let me be myself, and that’s meant a lot,” Clarkson said.
When the Nuggets clinched a spot in the first round of the postseason this week, it secured a $500K bonus for Nikola Jokic, tweets ESPN’s Bobby Marks. Since that bonus had already been deemed likely entering the season, it’ll have no impact on Denver’s cap.
After scoring 25 points on Wednesday against his old team (the Knicks), Austin Rivers had nothing but praise for his new team, the Nuggets, per Sean Keeler of The Denver Post. “This has been a life-saver and (life)-changer for me, coming (to Denver),” Rivers said. “I’ve never experienced a team, an organization, like this, (where it’s) so about ‘we’ instead of ‘me’ …. They just build everybody up here. That’s why (Michael Porter Jr.) plays the way he plays and Jokic and all these guys. They just build everybody up here. So I just feel kind of lucky. Honestly, I’m just lucky to be here and thankful to be here.”

Wolves Notes: Bolmaro, Finch, Rubio, Edwards, Lore

May 4th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

During an appearance on The Cake Show on KFAN in Minnesota (audio link), Timberwolves president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas strongly hinted that the team plans to sign 2020 first-round pick Leandro Bolmaro for the 2021/22 season.

Explaining why the Wolves feel as if they’ve prepared for the possibility of losing their first-round selection (to the Warriors) in 2021, Rosas didn’t mention Bolmaro by name, but suggested that last year’s No. 23 overall pick could help fill the hole created by not having a ’21 first-rounder.

“If we don’t (keep) the pick, we’ll have some financial flexibility,” Rosas said. “(And) we’ve got a player that we drafted last year who will come in next year.”

Bolmaro, an Argentinian guard, remained with FC Barcelona after being drafted by the Wolves last November. He was one of three players selected by Minnesota in the 2020 draft — the other two, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, are on this year’s roster.

Here’s more on the Wolves:

During that same KFAN appearance (audio link), Rosas also spoke about the impact Chris Finch has made since taking over as the Timberwolves’ head coach earlier this season and raved about Ricky Rubio‘s influence on the team’s young players.
Jon Krawczysnki and Britt Robson of The Athletic discuss where things stand on the Timberwolves, exploring Anthony Edwards‘ potential, Ricky Rubio‘s future with the franchise, and which areas of the roster most need to be addressed this offseason.
Michael Rand of The Star Tribune takes a look at the 15 players under contract with the Timberwolves, considering which ones are part of the team’s future and which ones might not be.
While Alex Rodriguez is well-known among sports fans, his business partner – tech entrepreneur Marc Lore – is better known for his ventures outside of sports. Nick Williams of The Star Tribune lays out what Wolves fans should know about the club’s potential co-owner.

Check-In On 10-Day Contracts, Open Roster Spots

May 3rd, 2021 at 1:45pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will come to an end on May 16. That means that there are just 14 days left in the season, and just four more days left to sign a player to a 10-day contract. As of this Friday (May 7), a 10-day deal would technically cover the remainder of the season.

With the playoffs around the corner, it makes sense that the number of active 10-day contracts around the NBA has been on the decline. The number of league-wide roster openings is also dwindling.

Here are the 10-day contracts that are currently active:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Charlie Brown Jr. (runs through May 4)
Orlando Magic: Ignas Brazdeikis (runs through May 11)
Brooklyn Nets: Mike James (runs through May 12)

Of those three players, Brown is the only one who will technically be eligible to sign another 10-day contract when his current pact expires.

Meanwhile, with players like Austin Rivers, Mfiondu Kabengele, Anthony Tolliver, Yogi Ferrell, and Freddie Gillespie signing rest-of-season contracts within the last several days, more and more teams now have full 15-man rosters and may be done making roster moves this season.

The following teams still have at least one open spot on their 15-man squads:

Golden State Warriors (2)
Miami Heat
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
New York Knicks
Portland Trail Blazers
San Antonio Spurs
Washington Wizards

In addition to these clubs, the Nets, Magic, and Thunder would each have a roster opening if they don’t retain the players on 10-day contracts noted above. The Knicks just opened their 15th roster spot on Sunday night, when Jared Harper‘s 10-day deal expired.

While many of these teams figure to fill their rosters before the regular season ends – either with a developmental prospect or one more veteran for postseason depth – the Warriors are the only club here that must add at least one more player. Teams are only permitted to dip below 14 players on standard contracts for up to two weeks at a time. Since Golden State was carrying Gary Payton II on a 10-day deal up until last Thursday, they’ll have until next Thursday (May 13) to re-add a 14th man.

The following teams also have an open two-way contract slot, which they may or may not fill during the season’s final two weeks:

Minnesota Timberwolves
New York Knicks
Phoenix Suns
Toronto Raptors

Minutes Restriction Lifted For D-Lo; Next Step For Edwards

May 2nd, 2021 at 3:15pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The minutes restriction has been lifted for Timberwolves guard D’Angelo Russell, who will continue to come off the bench for Minnesota, tweets Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. The Timberwolves are 8-7 since Russell returned to the lineup following a February left knee surgery.
The next step in the long-term evolution of the Timberwolves is for 2020 No. 1 pick Anthony Edwards to become a star, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. “We know what [Karl-Anthony Towns] can bring to the table,” guard Ricky Rubio said. “We know what [D’Angelo Russell] can bring to the table. But Ant, he has to bring it every night. That’s the toughest part of the NBA if you want to be one of the best.”

Andrew Wiggins Has "Nothing But Love" For Wolves, Minnesota

April 30th, 2021 at 11:54am CST by Luke Adams

Former Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins, who played in Minnesota on Thursday as a Warrior, said he has “nothing but love” for his old team and for his time in the city, writes Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. “Living here was great,” Wiggins said. “I got to meet a lot of people in the community. I made a lot of friends and people that I’ll talk to and be cool with the rest of my life. Just playing here with the organization it was cool. Helped me grow into the man I am today.”

Jarrett Culver To Undergo Ankle Surgery

April 29th, 2021 at 6:19pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Timberwolves reserve wing Jarrett Culver will undergo arthroscopic surgery on May 7 to address “debridement of scar tissue and loose body” in his right ankle and will be sidelined for the rest of the 2020/21 NBA season, per a team press release.

In his second pro season, the 6’6″ shooting guard out of Texas Tech saw a reduced on-court role with Minnesota, averaging 5.3 PPG and 3.1 RPG in 14.7 MPG across 34 games, all significant decreases from his rookie season numbers. The ankle issue has already cost Culver 17 games this year.

According to Chris Hine of the Star Tribune, the Timberwolves still see the 22-year-old former lottery selection as a promising roster element, despite his stagnation in output this season.

“He’s still a big part of our future as we see it,” head coach Chris Finch said. “So we want to be sure that we give him the best chance to have the proper preparation going into next year, and it’s important.”

In other Timberwolves injury news, the man who supplanted Culver as the club’s starting two guard, Malik Beasley, has returned to on-court workouts this week as he continues to recover from a left hamstring injury.

Beasley has had a career year with the Timberwolves, averaging 19.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 2.4 APG over 32.8 MPG, all career bests over a full season. Beasley averaged similar numbers in the 14 games he played for Minnesota after being acquired in a 2020 deadline deal with the Nuggets. Finch indicated that he was hopeful Beasley could suit up for a few of the lottery-bound Timberwolves’ final games this season.

“He wants to play,” Finch said. “I think, psychologically, he wants to go into the offseason knowing that he’s in game-ready shape.”