- As a result of the seeding games in Orlando, the 2020 first-round pick that the Timberwolves will receive from the Nets will land at No. 17 overall. Minnesota was assured of receiving that lottery-protected pick once Brooklyn clinched its playoff spot.
- The Timberwolves now officially own Brooklyn’s first-round pick in the upcoming draft, Chris Hine of the Star Tribune writes. Minnesota acquired the pick in a four-team trade last February, though the pick was lottery protected. The Nets would’ve kept the pick if they had missed the playoffs.
A report earlier this week suggested that the idea of creating a second “bubble” this summer for the NBA’s bottom eight clubs to conduct organized team activities appeared to be losing steam.
However, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic, league officials made it clear in a Wednesday conference call that they’re still trying to figure out as solution that will allow those teams to stay active. One idea that has been discussed, sources tell Amick, is bringing those bottom eight teams to the NBA’s first bubble at Walt Disney World.
As Amick explains, we’re just over a week away from six of the 22 teams participating in the Orlando restart being eliminated, which would open up more space at the Disney hotels and basketball courts. Two weeks later, after the first round of the playoffs ends, eight more clubs will be eliminated, leaving just eight of the original 22 on campus.
That could create an opportunity for the NBA to invite the bottom eight teams – the Warriors, Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Hawks, Knicks, Pistons, Bulls, and Hornets – into its “bubble.” Presumably, players, coaches, and staffers would quarantine in Disney hotels for several days before being cleared to participate in group workouts, practices, and perhaps even inter-squad scrimmages.
Amick cautions that this idea is just being considered for now, with nothing decided as of yet. A number of the hotel rooms being vacated by teams by the end of the first round of the postseason are expected to be filled by family members of players on the remaining clubs, who will be permitted to bring guests onto the campus around the end of August. So the NBA would have logistical challenges to overcome to bring such a plan together.
It also seems unlikely that all of those bottom eight teams would be enthusiastic about traveling to Orlando, quarantining, and spending a period of time at the Disney campus. The Warriors are known to prefer the idea of group workouts in their own market, and the Knicks have been averse to the idea of a second bubble because they have a number of free agents on their roster who likely wouldn’t participate (any organized team activities the NBA approves are expected to be voluntary, not mandatory).
Still, it’s worth noting that one of the NBPA’s primary concerns about OTAs for the non-Orlando teams is a belief that it’d be difficult to replicate the Disney safety protocols at another location. Bringing those teams onto the Disney campus would be the simplest way to ensure that those players are subject to the same safety protocols, so the union would have to consider such a plan. We’ll see if anything comes of it.
The 2020 NBA draft lottery, originally scheduled for May 19, will now take place on August 20, two weeks from today. Besides happening three months later than usual, this year’s lottery also figures to look a little different, since the ongoing coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly make it impossible for the NBA to bring representatives from the bottom 14 teams to a single location.
As we wait to see what the league has in mind for this year’s event, here are a few updates and reminders on the 2020 NBA draft lottery:
The bottom eight teams are already locked into their lottery spots
Much has been made in the last 24 hours about the Wizards (24-44), who are participating in the NBA’s summer restart, slipping below the inactive Hornets (23-42) in the Eastern Conference standings.
Fortunately for Hornets fans – and unfortunately for Wizards backers – the lottery odds for those two teams won’t hinge on which team finishes with the better overall record. For the NBA’s bottom eight teams, one silver lining of not getting an invite to Orlando this summer for the restart is that their spot in the top eight of the lottery has been locked in, based on the league standings as of March 11.
The Hornets will have the eighth-best odds and the Bulls will have the seventh-best odds even if the Wizards go 0-8 this summer and fall below both teams in the standings.
The race for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference could impact the lottery odds
With the non-Orlando teams frozen in the top eight lottery positions, the other six spots will be determined by two factors:
- Which six teams in Orlando don’t make the playoffs.
- What their records were as of March 11.
This is great news for a team like Phoenix. Having won their first three games in Orlando – as the Grizzlies lost their first four – the Suns are very much alive in the race for the No. 8 seed in the West. It will still take a strong finish and some luck for the Suns to qualify for a play-in tournament, but let’s suppose they do.
In that scenario, if the Suns win the play-in tournament and earn a postseason spot, their first-round pick would be 15th overall, best among the playoff teams, since they entered the hiatus with a 26-39 record, worse than Orlando or Brooklyn.
If they were to lose a play-in tournament, Phoenix would end up with the 10th-best lottery odds, ahead of the rest of Orlando’s non-playoff teams besides the Wizards, who were the only one of the 22 invited teams with a worse record than the Suns as of March 11.
Essentially, if you want to determine the back half of the lottery standings, you just have to sort the 22 teams in Orlando by their March 11 records, from worst to first, then remove the 16 teams that end up in the playoffs.
The Grizzlies could theoretically still keep their first-round pick
The Grizzlies owe their 2020 first-round pick to the Celtics, but it includes top-six protection.
As long as Memphis makes the playoffs, that protection doesn’t really matter — Boston would receive the pick. However, with the Grizzlies’ hold on the No. 8 seed slipping, there’s still an outside chance that they could keep the pick.
Let’s say Memphis falls out of the No. 8 spot and either loses a play-in tournament or altogether misses out on qualifying for a play-in. In that scenario, the Grizzlies would enter the lottery with the 14th-best odds, since they had a better record on March 11 than any of their fellow lottery teams. That would give them a 2.4% chance at moving into the top four, where their pick would be protected.
Those aren’t good odds. In all likelihood, missing the playoffs would just mean the Grizzlies sent the Celtics the No. 14 pick instead of a selection in the 15-17 range. Still, the outside chance at another top pick would at least be a small silver lining if Memphis can’t grab that No. 8 spot. If the Grizzlies do hang onto this year’s pick, they’d owe Boston an unprotected first-rounder in 2021.
Over in the East, the Nets owe a lottery-protected pick to the Timberwolves and would keep it if they fall out of the postseason. However, the Wizards’ struggles have essentially ruled out that possibility. One more Brooklyn win or Washington loss will ensure that the Nets make the playoffs and send their pick to Minnesota.
Current lottery odds
Listed here are the odds for the teams not invited to Orlando, who will hold the top eight spots in the lottery standings.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CLE | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIN | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| ATL | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – |
| DET | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.8 | 0.6 | – | – | – |
| NYK | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.6 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| CHI | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – |
| CHA | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 |
The tentative odds for the bottom six spots, assuming the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 seed, can be found right here.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- With Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor mulling a sale of the franchise, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic takes a fascinating, in-depth look at Taylor’s original purchase of the team in 1994, exploring how he helped keep the Wolves in Minnesota.
A report one month ago suggested that the NBA appeared likely to create a second campus/bubble environment in Chicago for the league’s bottom eight teams. The idea was for those teams left out of the Orlando restart to spend some time with their players during the offseason, conducting mini-training camps and inter-squad games in a single location.
However, according to Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic, there’s a growing belief that a second bubble site won’t happen. The Athletic’s duo reports that there’s also pessimism about those bottom eight teams getting to hold in-market minicamps for group workouts.
“There’s nothing happening,” said one general manager following a Tuesday call with the eight GMs and various league officials. “It’s a shame. It’s a huge detriment to these eight franchises that were left behind.”
With the NBA focusing on the success of the Orlando restart, discussions about plans for the bottom eight teams – the Warriors, Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, Knicks, and Hornets – have been inconsistent. As recently as last week, there seemed to be momentum building toward a plan to allow those clubs to hold practices and workouts, but that momentum has apparently stalled.
According to Charania and Amick, the National Basketball Players Association has safety concerns related to the idea of a second bubble amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. There are also financial and logistical complications associated with creating a smaller-scale version of the NBA’s Walt Disney World campus.
Charania and Amick suggest that the NBPA is more open to the idea of creating smaller, in-market bubbles for teams to host individual mini-camps in their respective cities. But it sounds as if that won’t happen by mid-August as initially hoped, if it happens at all.
The eight teams left out of the Orlando restart believe they’re at a potential competitive disadvantage by missing out on the player and culture development that other teams are getting this summer, sources tell The Athletic. Those clubs are expected to continue pushing for some form of offseason team activities to re-engage players and coaches. For now, they’re only permitted to hold 1-on-0 workouts at their practice facilities, with limited coach involvement.
- Dutch big man Henk Norel announced his retirement this week due to ongoing knee issues, as relayed by Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. Norel never played in the NBA, but was selected 47th overall in the 2009 draft by the Timberwolves, who still hold his NBA rights.
As Glen Taylor considers a potential sale of the Timberwolves, one of his top priorities is making sure the team remains in Minnesota. Sources tell Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic that any purchase agreement will likely include steep financial penalties for moving the franchise, while Chris Hine of The Star Tribune reports that the Wolves already have an agreement with the city to pay a $50MM penalty if they move before 2035.
As Glen Taylor considers a potential sale of the Timberwolves, one of his top priorities is making sure the team remains in Minnesota. Sources tell Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic that any purchase agreement will likely include steep financial penalties for moving the franchise, while Chris Hine of The Star Tribune reports that the Wolves already have an agreement with the city to pay a $50MM penalty if they move before 2035.
Meanwhile, Krawczynski writes that Taylor and the Timberwolves have been “inundated” with interest over the last couple weeks. According to The Athletic, there are at least five “legitimate” bidders besides the groups that include former NBA players Kevin Garnett and Arron Afflalo.
While it remains to be seen which group might emerge as the most serious suitor for the Timberwolves, Taylor tells The Star Tribune that one group – a family from out of state – is further along in the process than the others.
The Straus Group, an investment firm founded by Daniel Straus, is exploring the possibility of purchasing the Timberwolves, people with knowledge of the matter tells Gillian Tan of Bloomberg. It’s not clear if The Straus Group is operating alone or as part of a consortium, according to Tam.
Straus has been involved in NBA team ownership in the past, having controlled shares of the Grizzlies up until 2018. Majority owner Robert Pera bought out Straus and fellow minority stakeholder Steve Kaplan two years ago after a clause in their purchase agreement was triggered — if Pera hadn’t purchased Straus’ and Kaplan’s shares in the team, he would’ve had to sell the Grizzlies to them at the same valuation.
Straus is one of just many potential bidders in the mix for the Timberwolves, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News, who tweets that a number of people and groups with interest have not yet been publicly identified. Former NBA players Kevin Garnett and Arron Afflalo are believed to be part of two separate groups with interest in purchasing the franchise.
[RELATED: Glen Taylor Discusses Potential Timberwolves Sale]
According to Charley Walters of The St. Paul Pioneer Press, Garnett’s group includes a pair of billionaires from California and another one from Florida. Walters suggests that the plan would be for KG to invest $200MM and to become the head of basketball operations if his group were to buy the team. If that’s accurate, it’s not clear what it would mean for current president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas.
Walters also reports that the asking price for the Timberwolves – along with the WNBA’s Minnesota Lynx – is expected to be in the $1.2 billion range, though that’s obviously subject to change depending on how the bidding plays out.
- University of Denver guard Ade Murkey, a Minnesota native, has interviewed with his hometown Timberwolves during the pre-draft process, according to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link). Murkey averaged 18.6 PPG and 6.3 RPG with a .481/.400/.731 shooting line as a senior.