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Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2022 at 1:44pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jerami Grant, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $20,955,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Grant has proven to be a nice fit in Portland, providing efficient frontcourt scoring (.613 true shooting percentage) for the team’s seventh-ranked offense. He can score in a variety of ways and is one of the team’s better defenders, though the Blazers have fallen off considerably on that end – they’re down to 23^rd in defensive rating with a net rating barely above water (+0.4).

Grant will turn 29 in March and is in line for a big payday on his next contract. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if he thinks he can get more than that, he’ll have to wait until free agency.

Bruce Brown, G/F, Nuggets

2022/23: $6,479,000
2023/24: $6,802,950 player option
Stock: Up

I was surprised Brown’s free agency foray last offseason wasn’t more lucrative after a strong postseason showing with the Nets – he ended up signing a two-year deal with Denver for the taxpayer mid-level exception. It was rumored that he had higher offers and liked the fit with the Nuggets.

Either way, he has been a valuable and consistent role player alongside reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. The versatile Brown is averaging 11.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.0 SPG on a rock-solid .492/.413/.800 (.584 TS%) shooting line through 29 games (30.2 MPG).

In addition to being head coach Michael Malone’s go-to replacement starter across multiple positions (he’s up to 17 starts), Brown is attempting – and converting – more three-pointers than ever before, up to 1.3 makes and 3.2 attempts per game, from previous career highs of 0.6 and 1.7, respectively. He has been a relative bargain thus far, but the problem for the Nuggets is if he opts out, they’ll only have his Non-Bird rights, so they’ll be limited to offering him 120% of his current contract – a deal would start at $7.8MM in 2023/24, only a $1MM raise on his player option.

If he opts out, I think Brown could at least land a deal for the non-taxpayer mid-level in free agency, which is projected to be worth $48.9MM over four years. If Denver is where he really wants to be, another option would be picking up his option and then re-signing once the Nuggets have his Early Bird rights after ’23/24 – Nicolas Batum and Bobby Portis took that route in recent years with the Clippers and Bucks, respectively.

Bryn Forbes, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

In five consecutive seasons from 2017-22, Forbes knocked down at least 38.8% of his three-point attempts, and he owns a career rate of 41.3%. However, he has struggled this season in his rare opportunities to play, converting just 25.8% of his looks beyond the arc in 17 games (10.6 MPG).

That’s a major problem for the undersized shooting guard, because his value is almost entirely tied to his ability to make shots — he’s limited in every other area, particularly defensively. The Wolves need shooting – they’re 22^nd in 3PT% – so the fact that he hasn’t been playing obviously means head coach Chris Finch doesn’t trust him over other options. For players on minimum deals, one down season could mean they’re on the last legs of their NBA careers.

Justise Winslow, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $4,097,561
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

After dealing with several significant injuries in his eight-year career, Winslow has been relatively healthy thus far for Portland, appearing in 28 of 31 games. You would think that alone would help his stock, but he hasn’t really shown anything different than he’s done in prior seasons from a production standpoint.

Winslow is energetic, strong, a solid rebounder, an above-average play-maker and a solid defender across multiple positions, all desirable traits. He can grab a rebound and start a fast break, or initiate the offense in a half-court setting, acting as a point forward of sorts.

However, he’s very limited as a scorer – his .415/.310/.714 (.470 TS%) shooting line is very close to his career mark – so it’s hard to envision his market being robust, despite his positive attributes.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G/F, Jazz

2022/23: $5,009,633
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The No. 17 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Alexander-Walker had a very inconsistent first three seasons. He was traded twice right before last season’s deadline, going from New Orleans to Portland to Utah, and rarely saw the court with the Jazz.

His spot in the rotation is still tenuous – he has appeared in 22 of 33 games for an average of 15.3 minutes per night. Virtually all of his counting stats are similar to his career averages. So why is his stock up?

The answer is simple: he’s posting a .491/.433/.727 (.623 TS%) shooting line and has played key defense at the end of multiple close games. Less simple is the question of whether the Jazz will be inclined give him a $7,073,602 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent – it’s too early to make that call, but if I had to guess, I’d bet they wouldn’t right now.

Still, if he keeps shooting anything close to what he has early on, he’ll likely find a multiyear contract for more than the minimum, which definitely wasn’t a lock entering ‘22/23.

Wolves’ Jaden McDaniels Talks Season, Goals, More

December 19th, 2022 at 2:07pm CST by Rory Maher

As a former first-round pick in his third year, Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels is in the midst of an important season for his career — he’s eligible for a rookie scale extension in 2023. The rangy, versatile defender is averaging career highs in several categories thus far in 2022/23, including points (10.9), steals (1.1), blocks (1.2), FG% (52.7), 3PT% (36.9) and minutes (30.1) through 27 games.

McDaniels recently spoke to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype about a number of different topics, including how he improves defensively, who he compares himself to, the team’s goal for ’22/23, his long-term individual goals, and more. Here are a few highlights:

On the Wolves’ season thus far and his own development:

“For the team, it’s been a little up and down, but there have been certain times this season where we click, and we’re playing our best basketball. Then, there’s sometimes I feel like with KAT (Karl-Anthony Towns) being down, it hurts us. Defensively, sometimes we slip. I feel like it’s going to come together. It has to work for us. That’s what we’re saying. Continue to stick with it.

“For me, I’d say staying aggressive offensively and getting to my spots while continuing to shoot the three really well. I want to continue to guard the best player on the other team and make it as tough as I can.”

“Fair expectations” for the current season after the Rudy Gobert trade over the summer:

“I feel like we’ll go to the playoffs and try and get further than we did last year. Our goal is the second or third round. Our main goal is the championship, but we’ve got to start somewhere, so I’ll say do better than we did last year for right now.”

Long-term goals for his career:

“Sometime, I’d love to be an All-Star. Right now, things I feel are accomplishable are being on the All-Defensive Team. I feel like I could be one of the best two-way players in the NBA. Then, continuing to build off that to All-Star games to being a playoff MVP and all those types of things.”

Northwest Notes: Gordon, Alexander-Walker, Sexton, Edwards

December 18th, 2022 at 4:31pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Nuggets power forward Aaron Gordon has proven to be a reliable role player this season in perhaps his best year as a pro thus far, writes Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Gordon is averaging 16.9 PPG on a career-high 61% shooting, along with 6.3 RPG and 2.1 APG, for the 17-11 Nuggets.

“I’m looking to be the glue guy,” Gordon said. “I think I’m using my physicality down on the block… And I like running and scoring in transition. But I have another level to get to — and so does this team.”

“You can see how he’s developed,” two-time MVP center Nikola Jokic said of the 6’8″ forward this week. “He can screen and roll, he can play one-on-one, facing the basket. He can run and rebound. He’s a complete player. He doesn’t have a weak spot. He’s probably one of the top-five, two-way players in the league now.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

Jazz shooting guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker has emerged as a key rotational component, which he credits to trying to be more effective by focusing on improving more limited elements of his game, writes Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. “When guys have fun, guys enjoy it, guys are in the flow state, there’s less tension and force; like the laws of attraction — the harder you try, the more it sometimes presses away from you,” Alexander-Walker said. “So I’ve just learned to let things take their course and be patient.”
Following a reassessment of his strained right hamstring, Jazz reserve point guard Collin Sexton is now considered day-to-day, per Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link). The Jazz have indicated that the evaluation included imaging. Sexton has been sidelined for the team’s last five contests with the injury. For the season, his first with Utah, the 6’1″ vet is averaging 14.3 PPG, 3.0 APG and 2.4 RPG mostly as a backup.
Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards has had to adjust quickly to serving as Minnesota’s (short-term) main playmaker with guards D’Angelo Russell and Jordan McLaughlin both sidelined in consecutive recent games, writes Kent Youngblood of The Star Tribune. “I think these last couple games have been good for him to be on the ball,” head coach Chris Finch opined. “One thing we’ve been preaching to him a lot, the essence of offense in the league, is when they put two on you, create an advantage. No matter how you do it, pick-and-roll, trap, early gap help, all that stuff is a gravity that he creates.”

Timberwolves Notes: Reid, Beverley, Ryan, Anderson

December 17th, 2022 at 9:45am CST by Luke Adams

With Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert unavailable on Friday night, Timberwolves center Naz Reid got his first start of the season in Oklahoma City and delivered in a big way. The big man’s 28 points were easily a season high, and he also chipped in nine rebounds, three assists, and three steals. The Wolves outscored the Thunder by 21 points with Reid on the floor in a game they won by just two points.

The performance was a reminder of why the Wolves have been trying to lock up Reid to a contract extension for several months, according to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter links), who says the 23-year-old’s best play might be to wait for unrestricted free agency.

As we noted when news of Reid’s extension negotiations with the team first broke, Minnesota could offer up to about $58MM over four years, and I’m skeptical he’ll do better than that as a free agent. But perhaps it makes sense for him to see what else is available on the open market, especially if the Wolves’ offers have been modest.

Although Reid is in a contract year, Wolfson doesn’t expect Minnesota to seriously consider trading him before the February deadline, arguing that it would be hard to get fair value for him and noting that the Wolves still have “lofty” goals for this season that Reid can help them achieve (Twitter links).

Here are a few more Timberwolves notes:

Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic discusses a bevy of Timberwolves-related topics in his latest mailbag, addressing the team’s apparent leadership void, D’Angelo Russell‘s trade value, and Anthony Edwards‘ development, among many other topics. Krawczynski also responds to the recent report that said Patrick Beverley would welcome a return to Minnesota if he’s traded and then bought out, suggesting a reunion this season looks like a “long shot.”
New Timberwolves sharpshooter Matt Ryan, who signed a two-way contract with the team last Thursday, said earlier this week that everyone in Minnesota has made him feel welcome and that he’s hoping to get more of an opportunity to play than he did with the Lakers. “I thought that I was one of the better shooters on the (Lakers), but the opportunity wasn’t there for whatever reasons,” Ryan said, per Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. “Now coming here, from the feedback I’ve gotten, their three-point shooting is struggling and it’s just, ‘Be ready.'”
Britt Robson of MinnPost.com takes a look at the “near-comprehensive competence” of forward Kyle Anderson and explores what he has brought to the Timberwolves. Minnesota used most of its mid-level exception to bring in Anderson over the summer.

Beverley Wants To Rejoin Wolves If He's Traded And Bought Out

December 14th, 2022 at 11:22pm CST by Rory Maher

The first-round pick the Lakers offered the Pistons for Bojan Bogdanovic was “heavily protected,” according to Fischer, who hears from sources that Patrick Beverley hopes to rejoin the Timberwolves if he’s dealt to a rebuilding club like Detroit and reaches a buyout agreement. Beverley and Kendrick Nunn were included in L.A.’s offer for salary-matching purposes.

Northwest Notes: Gobert, Conley, Russell, Thunder

December 10th, 2022 at 9:49pm CST by Arthur Hill

Rudy Gobert got a warm reception in his return to Utah Friday night, but things turned hostile after he dropped in a late layup with the game already decided, writes Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. The Timberwolves held an eight-point lead with 12 seconds left to play as the Jazz decided to trap on defense. Minnesota passed the ball to Gobert, who scored with 2.4 seconds left.

After the final buzzer, Malik Beasley, who was sent to Utah in the Gobert trade, began yelling at Gobert and accused him of violating “one of the unwritten rules of basketball,” according to Walden. Jarred Vanderbilt, who was also in the deal, walked up to Gobert and shoved him.

Gobert was upset that the skirmish marred his night, which included a tribute video commemorating his nine seasons with the Jazz.

“I don’t know what it was. But I’ve been taught to play basketball until the last second,” Gobert told reporters. “For me, there was never any intent to disrespect anybody. So these guys that stepped in front of me — you’re not going to do anything anyway. I didn’t get to shake hands with my guys, so it kind of killed my moment a little bit. But it is what it is — some guys just want attention.”

There’s more from the Northwest Division:

Jazz guard Mike Conley can understand what Gobert was feeling heading into Friday’s game because he went through the same experience when he returned to Memphis, Walden adds. “You just gotta try your best to do your job, but at the same time enjoy this moment,” Conley said, “because you only get to do this situation one time, where you get to come back and play against your team that you did so much for.”
A hot-shooting night in Cleveland about a month ago helped Timberwolves guard D’Angelo Russell turn his season around, per Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. Russell said that before that game, in which he made 11-of-13 shots from the field, he was taking “the wrong approach” to his duties with the team. “I was trying to be too focused on being a point guard instead of a basketball player,” he said. “… I kind of just play basketball freely and have fun. I pass the ball, so I’m labeled as a point guard. But just being a full, all-around basketball player, [I was] switching my approach to that.”
Asked about Darius Bazley possibly re-entering the rotation, Thunder coach Mark Daigneault responded with a general answer, tweets Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. “We’re trying to help every guy understand their individual style of play that maximizes their strength and maximizes their ability to impact the team,” Daigneault said. “I would say that’s basically the template, the blueprint for every guy.”

Taurean Prince Still At Least One Week Away

December 10th, 2022 at 12:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Having already missed seven games due to a right shoulder subluxation, Timberwolves forward Taurean Prince is expected to be out for at least one more week, head coach Chris Finch said on Friday. As Dane Moore of Blue Wire Pods tweets, Prince is doing on-court work and making progress, but still has a ways to go.

Would Wolves Make Gobert Trade Again? Rand Says "Probably"

December 9th, 2022 at 10:57pm CST by Rory Maher

Prior to the Timberwolves‘ matchup with the Jazz on Friday, which the Wolves won 118-108 to move to 13-12, Michael Rand of The Star Tribune wrote an article about whether Minnesota would still make the Rudy Gobert deal right now, with the knowledge that the start to the season would be uneven. He believes the answer is “probably,” because while there have definitely been bumps along the way, Gobert has played better of late and he’s starting to develop some chemistry with teammates.

Timberwolves Notes: Reid, Garza, Gobert

December 8th, 2022 at 9:22pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Timberwolves center Naz Reid is adjusting to life backing up Minnesota’s All-NBA frontcourt of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, writes Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. That has meant playing power forward in addition to center.

“Guarding different players and position,” Reid said of the change. “It’s very different actually.”

With Towns sidelined indefinitely due to a right calf injury, the 6’9″ Reid will get additional rotation minutes as a reserve. He should see more time at the five rather than the four until Towns is back.

“I wouldn’t say I can’t play the four… it’s a big role I’m going to be in within the next couple weeks,” Reid said. “I’m excited to be in that role and excited to help our team.”

The fourth-year big man out of LSU is averaging 7.8 PPG on 52.8% shooting from the floor, along with 3.7 RPG and 0.9 BPG, across just 14.3 MPG.

There’s more out of Minnesota:

Two-way Timberwolves big man Luka Garza has recently shown out in his play for the team’s NBAGL affiliate, the Iowa Wolves. Hines wonders in another piece if the 6’11” center/forward can become a part of Minnesota’s future. Garza’s 29.8 PPG, on 62.8% shooting, leads the entire NBA G League, and he has also put up 9.2 RPG and 3.2 APG. “I love this system that we play with here,” Garza said of the coordinated approach of both the Iowa and Minnesota franchises. “We play a lot through the bigs, Karl and Rudy. It’s very evident and it’s kind of the same thing with me down there. We’re not only put in positions to score but make decisions and get guys involved.” Hine notes that Garza could get additional time at the NBA level with Towns unavailable.
Rudy Gobert‘s new teammates continue to learn about how best to fit in with his game, Hines writes in another Star Tribune story. That extends to how Gobert feels about help coverage around the basket — he is not a fan. “When someone drives on me, unless I fall down, which doesn’t happen, just let me make a play,” Gobert said. “Then if they score, I’ll take the blame.”
Following a largely successful nine-season run with the Jazz, Gobert was flipped to Minnesota in the offseason. Now, he’s gearing up for his first game in Utah as an opposing player on Friday, Hine writes. “I just want to enjoy the moment,” Gobert said. “There’s a lot of people that I have a lot of love for over there. There’s a lot of great memories. … I just want to enjoy the moment and, of course, get a win.” Gobert won three Defensive Player of the Year awards and made three All-Star teams during his time with the Jazz, though his teams failed to advance beyond the second round of the playoffs.

Timberwolves Sign Matt Ryan To Two-Way Deal, Waive Lawson

December 8th, 2022 at 12:25pm CST by Dana Gauruder

DECEMBER 8: The Timberwolves have put out a press release officially announcing that they’ve signed Ryan to a two-way contract and waived Lawson.

DECEMBER 6: The Timberwolves are signing forward Matt Ryan to a two-way contract, Shams Charania and Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic tweet. Minnesota will waive A.J. Lawson to make room for Ryan, Krawczynski adds in another tweet.

Ryan was waived by the Lakers last week.

Minnesota ranks 28th in 3-point shooting at 32.6% and hopes that Ryan can help in that area. He joined the Lakers on a non-guaranteed minimum-salary contract in September and earned a spot on the regular season roster.

Ryan made 13-of-35 attempts 3-point attempts (37.1%) for L.A. this season but only converted 2-of-14 two-pointers. In total, he averaged 3.9 PPG in 12 appearances (10.8 MPG).

Ryan went undrafted out of Chattanooga in 2020 and eventually landed with the Grand Rapids Gold in the G League in 2021/22. He made his NBA debut with the Celtics this past spring.

Lawson appeared in just one game for the Timberwolves after signing a two-way contract in mid-November. He was playing for the Hawks’ G League affiliate prior to inking that contract.

It’s the second time Minnesota has waived Lawson. He was previously signed on a two-way deal in July. The Wolves initially waived him to add Luka Garza in mid-October.