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2023 NBA Draft Pick Swaps To Monitor

October 28th, 2022 at 12:45pm CST by Luke Adams

It’s far too early in the 2022/23 NBA season to look at the standings and draw sweeping conclusions about which teams are headed for the postseason and which are lottery-bound.

Still, Victor Wembanyama‘s impending arrival casts a long shadow over this season — having even an outside shot at landing the best NBA prospect since LeBron James may prompt some struggling teams to pivot to tank mode midway through the year rather than pushing for a play-in spot.

Since any prolonged slump could make a team’s fans wonder if tanking for Wembanyama is the smart play, it’s worth noting up front which clubs would and wouldn’t realistically have a shot at him if they finish in the lottery. A team could go 0-82 and still have a 0% chance of drafting Wembanyama if that team has already traded away its unprotected 2023 first-round pick.

Here are a few of the unprotected draft-pick swaps and trades worth keeping in mind as the 2022/23 season progresses:

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have faced a challenging set of opponents during their 0-4 start and seem likely to bounce back sooner or later, at least to some extent. But if you’ve watched the team look inconsistent and out of sorts on offense while making three-pointers at a record-low rate, you can’t be blamed for wondering if it might be in the franchise’s best interest to tank for a shot at Wembanyama and reload for next season, when Russell Westbrook‘s $47MM cap hit comes off the books.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, that’s not an option. As part of the Anthony Davis trade, the Lakers gave the Pelicans the ability to swap first-round picks in 2023. So if the Lakers miss the postseason and win the draft lottery, that No. 1 overall pick would go to New Orleans, not L.A.

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets haven’t looked much better than the Lakers so far this season. They’re off to a 1-4 start and have the NBA’s worst defense (120.2 defensive rating), with new addition Ben Simmons looking uncomfortable on the court. Again, it’s unlikely they’ll play this poorly all season, but if things continue to go downhill, would tanking be an option for the Nets?

Brooklyn’s draft-pick situation is an unusual one. Theoretically, the Nets could secure the No. 1 pick in 2023, but only if Philadelphia misses the playoffs and wins the draft lottery, since Brooklyn controls the Sixers‘ pick.

The Rockets have the ability to swap their own first-rounder with the Nets’ pick, so if Brooklyn finishes in the lottery and the Sixers don’t, the highest pick the Nets could get would be No. 2 overall (if they and the Rockets earned the top two spots via the lottery).

Given that the Rockets are a good bet to be at or near the bottom of the NBA’s standings, a poor season from the Nets would still probably ensure a strong draft pick, even if they have to swap picks — but it wouldn’t give them a shot at Wembanyama.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 1-4 Sixers haven’t looked right so far this season, especially defensively. There’s too much talent on the roster for them to continue losing games at this rate, but it’s worth noting that they won’t have their first-round pick at all in 2023. That first-rounder will be sent to the Nets, unless it’s worse than Brooklyn’s and Houston’s picks, in which case it will be rerouted to the Jazz.

Los Angeles Clippers

Like their Crypto.com Arena cohabitants, the Clippers have a first-round pick in 2023, but it’s not guaranteed to be their own. As part of the Paul George trade, L.A. gave the Thunder the ability to swap first-rounders in 2023.

The odds of the Thunder finishing ahead of the Clippers in this year’s standings are virtually nil, but this swap is still worth mentioning on the heels of Oklahoma City defeating L.A. in consecutive games this week. Both teams are currently 2-3.

Minnesota Timberwolves/Milwaukee Bucks

The Timberwolves and Bucks have both traded away their 2023 first-round picks without protections. Minnesota’s pick is headed to the Jazz, while Milwaukee’s will be sent to the Rockets.

If the Wolves and Bucks live up to their expectations this year, those picks should land somewhere in the 20s and be well removed from the Wembanyama sweepstakes.

The rest

Several more 2023 first-round picks will likely change hands next spring, but all of the rest of the traded picks for ’23 have some form of protection on them. For instance, Chicago’s 2023 first-rounder will likely be sent to the Magic, but it has top-four protection, so if they were to win the draft lottery, the Bulls would keep that pick.

A full list of the traded 2023 first-round picks can be found right here.

NBA Teams With Open Roster Spots

October 28th, 2022 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

With 30 NBA teams each permitted to carry 15 players on standard contracts and a pair on two-way deals, there are a total of 510 roster spots available across the league. Nearly two weeks into the 2022/23 season, 500 of those spots are filled, with only 10 still up for grabs.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Roster Counts]

The NBA’s transaction wire has been pretty quiet since the regular season tipped off on October 18, as the teams that began the year with open roster spots are in no rush to fill them.

In some cases, that’s about maintaining roster flexibility — teams want to be able to make trades where they acquire more players than they send out, or sign a free agent to a non-guaranteed contract to address a positional hole if multiple players start to go down with injuries.

In most cases though, it’s more about financial concerns. Many of the teams with open roster spots are either already over the luxury tax line or dangerously close to it.

Here are the teams that have open roster spots:

Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Hornets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Miami Heat
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Note: The Timberwolves’ opening is a two-way slot.
Philadelphia 76ers
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers

Of these teams, the Timberwolves are the most likely to fill their roster opening in the coming days or weeks — since two-way signings don’t count against a team’s cap, there’s no compelling financial reason for a team not to be carrying two players on two-way deals.

Minnesota has a relatively healthy roster though, and the G League season hasn’t started yet, so there’s no urgent need to add a two-way replacement for Eric Paschall, who was waived last week.

Among the other teams on this list, only the Hornets and Cavaliers could sign a 15th man without any immediate luxury tax concerns, so they’re probably the first two teams to watch for potential signings. If they were to sign a player to a non-guaranteed contract, they’d only have to pay his daily salary and would be able to waive him at any time before January 7 without being on the hook for his full-season cap hit.

Northwest Notes: McDaniels, Timberwolves, Brown, Jokic

October 27th, 2022 at 11:24pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Timberwolves power forward Jaden McDaniels gets his offense by being in the right space in the right time. A high-scoring night for McDaniels is usually indicative of good ball movement from his Minnesota teammates, writes Chris Hine of The Star Tribune.

“He’s a really good cutter,” head coach Chris Finch said. “Our offense relies on cutting a lot, and a lot of guys don’t have a great feel for that or are reluctant to cut, because they’re way more ball-dominant, but he’s such a good cutter, and the ball has to be moving in different spots that allows those cuts to open up to be there… He’s going to be the beneficiary of good offense, good flow.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

The Timberwolves are emphasizing a motion-heavy offense this season, per Jim Souhan of The Star Tribune. All-Star center Rudy Gobert is excited to be sharing the floor, and the rock, with fellow All-Star teammate Karl-Anthony Towns. “I think this is where we can really punish teams,” Gobert said of Towns. “It’s really important that we keep working on it. The fact that he can pass and he’s willing to pass has made him even more of a threat.”
New Nuggets shooting guard Bruce Brown has a fan in head coach Michael Malone, per Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports (Twitter link). “I’m so thankful that we were able to sign Bruce Brown in free agency,” Malone told reporters after Wednesday’s win.
Sean Keeler of The Denver Post writes that Brown, known primarily as an unorthodox roll man and defender during his time with the Nets, is looking more multifaceted in Denver, thanks to a solid shooting start. “[His] shooting, in Brooklyn, he really wasn’t known for it because of the way he had to play,” Nuggets power forward Jeff Green said. “He had to sacrifice a lot (there). So I think now, people are going have to respect what he can bring to the table.” The 6’5″ vet did connect on 40.4% of his three-pointers during his 2021/22 season with Brooklyn, albeit on a fairly low-volume 1.3 attempts a night. Thus far with Denver, Brown is shooting 50% on his 3.2 looks from long range.
Though Nuggets All-NBA center Nikola Jokic is not an elite rim protector, his court sense on defense allows him to remain underrated on that side of the floor, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post in a new mailbag. Singer also discusses the team’s apparent plan to employ a switch-heavy defense for every position beyond Jokic, the three-point shooting prowess of Michael Porter Jr., and Denver’s road-heavy early season schedule.

Forbes Releases 2022 NBA Franchise Valuations

October 27th, 2022 at 10:59am CST by Luke Adams

For the first time since Forbes began issuing annual valuations of NBA teams over two decades ago, a team other than the Knicks or Lakers ranks atop the publication’s list of 2022’s most valuable franchises.

According to Mike Ozanian and Justin Teitelbaum of Forbes, the Warriors are now considered the NBA’s most valuable club, with a record-setting valuation of $7 billion following a championship season.

Forbes’ duo explains that the Warriors generated more revenue and operating income in 2021/22 than any other team in NBA history, buoyed by $150MM in arena sponsorships and advertising, along with $250MM from premium seating.

While the Warriors enjoyed the biggest bump in value since Forbes’ most recent round of valuations, every other NBA team saw its valuation rise during that time as well, according to Ozanian and Teitelbaum, who say the average franchise is now valued at $2.86 billion. That’s 15% more than a year ago, despite the fact that the stock market is down 15% over the same time period.

Of the NBA’s 30 teams, only one – the Nets – lost money last season, per Forbes’ report, which states that record-setting sponsorship and advertising revenue ($1.35 billion last season) has put the league back on its “pre-Covid growth trajectory.” Further growth is anticipated going forward, with a new television and media deal to be negotiated in the coming years — it will take effect in 2025.

Although Forbes’ figures are just estimates and often don’t quite match up with the sale prices for franchises that change hands, they’re still useful for getting a sense of the league’s most and least valuable teams.

Here’s Forbes’ full list of NBA franchise valuations for 2022:

Golden State Warriors: $7 billion
New York Knicks: $6.1 billion
Los Angeles Lakers: $5.9 billion
Chicago Bulls: $4.1 billion
Boston Celtics: $4.0 billion
Los Angeles Clippers: $3.9 billion
Brooklyn Nets: $3.5 billion
Dallas Mavericks: $3.3 billion
Houston Rockets: $3.2 billion
Philadelphia 76ers: $3.15 billion
Toronto Raptors: $3.1 billion
Miami Heat: $3 billion
Phoenix Suns: $2.7 billion
Washington Wizards: $2.5 billion
Milwaukee Bucks: $2.3 billion
Portland Trail Blazers: $2.1 billion
Cleveland Cavaliers: $2.05 billion
Sacramento Kings: $2.03 billion
Utah Jazz: $2.025 billion
San Antonio Spurs: $2 billion
Atlanta Hawks: $1.975 billion
Denver Nuggets: $1.93 billion
Detroit Pistons: $1.9 billion
Oklahoma City Thunder: $1.875 billion
Orlando Magic: $1.85 billion
Indiana Pacers: $1.8 billion
Charlotte Hornets: $1.7 billion
Minnesota Timberwolves: $1.67 billion
Memphis Grizzlies: $1.65 billion
New Orleans Pelicans: $1.6 billion

Northwest Notes: Timberwolves, Gobert, Towns, Simons, Lillard

October 25th, 2022 at 5:39pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The star-studded Timberwolves have stumbled out of the gate to begin the 2022/23 NBA season, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. The 2-2 Wolves have now dropped games against the Jazz and Spurs in what had been projected as a fairly easy opening stretch for a team that reshaped its roster by adding former Utah All-Star center Rudy Gobert in a blockbuster deal this summer.

Krawczynski observes that, in the Wolves’ third home game of the year against San Antonio, they looked particularly listless defensively, star shooting guard Anthony Edwards appeared disengaged on offense, Gobert struggled to hold onto rebounds, and the club was playing through boos from the Target Center crowd in Minneapolis. Gobert posited after the game that the club needed to improve its communication on the floor.

“It doesn’t take much energy to talk,” Gobert offered. “You just gotta want to do it. We’re not there yet. Hopefully, you know, we’re gonna get there soon, and we’re gonna learn.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

One big issue for the Timberwolves‘ new jumbo-sized starting lineup has been its transition defense, writes Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. Starting two nominal centers in the frontcourt, Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, could be part of the trouble. Hines notes that the team is permitting opposing clubs to score 21 fast-break points per game, which is the worst such average in the NBA. “We have to understand what our flaws are and how we have to cover them,” head coach Chris Finch acknowledged. “Such as, we may not be the fastest of foot from end line to end line, but we’ve got to make a better effort.”
A huge sharpshooting night for Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons on Monday serves as an indicator that Portland’s hot 4-0 start to the 2022/23 season has nearly as much to do with the newly-revamped club’s role players as it does with the constant brilliance of point guard Damian Lillard, opines Jason Quick of The Athletic. Simons connected on his first eight straight shots, which included six triples, to help Portland blow out the Nuggets 135-110.
Lillard has been a big part of the team’s undefeated start. As such, the Trail Blazers guard has taken an early leap in the NBA’s MVP race, per Cole Huff of The Athletic. His odds have risen from +6600 to +2500.

Wolves Have Discussed Extensions With Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell

October 24th, 2022 at 9:18am CST by Luke Adams

The Timberwolves have engaged in talks with big man Naz Reid and swingman Jaylen Nowell about possible contract extensions, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.

Reid has been a regular part of the Timberwolves’ frontcourt rotation since 2019, averaging 9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 1.0 BPG on .490/.344/.720 shooting in 179 career contests (17.2 MPG) since making his debut in 2019. Nowell, who joined the team at the same time, has been a fixture on the wing, averaging 8.3 PPG in 122 career appearances (16.0 MPG), including 15.0 PPG through three games this season.

Reid and Nowell are both in the final season of four-year contracts they signed back in 2019. Because they’re on expiring deals, they’ll remain eligible to sign extensions all the way up until June 30, 2023, the day before they become unrestricted free agents.

Veteran extensions for players on minimum-salary contracts like Reid and Nowell can begin at 120% of this season’s estimated average salary. As we noted when the NBA set its salary cap for 2022/23, this season’s estimated average salary is $10,792,000, so 120% of that amount is $12,950,400. Therefore, a maximum four-year extension that includes 8% raises would be worth about $58MM.

It’s unlikely that either Reid or Nowell will get a four-year, $58MM offer from the Timberwolves, but it’s possible they’ll be able to reach a compromise somewhere below that maximum.

It sounds as if Reid is a more likely extension candidate than Nowell, who is expected to opt for unrestricted free agency next summer, sources tell Charania.

Northwest Notes: Timberwolves, Braun, Jokic, Vanderbilt, Beasley

October 23rd, 2022 at 6:09pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The 1-1 Timberwolves are continuing to adjust to their new-look roster as the 2022/23 season gets going, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic.

“The smaller we go, the better it is for me,” star Minnesota shooting guard Anthony Edwards said after the team’s 132-126 overtime loss to the rebuilding Jazz Friday night. Given that the team’s highest-paid players are seven-foot frontcourt starters Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, Krawczynski notes that this is a loaded statement.

“I have to get him the ball more,” head coach Chris Finch said of Edwards. “We ran a couple things to get the ball in his hands. And then, again, the ball got sticky. We tried to play through KAT there. But he’s got to get some looks. That’s on me.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

Nuggets rookie shooting Christian Braun seems to be carving out a solid bench role already, having logged a productive 23 minutes as a reserve for the Warriors, writes Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports. The 21-year-old Braun, selected out of Kansas in this year’s draft with the No. 21 pick, has emerged as a multi-faceted defender, and could prove to be a vital role player for a team with championship aspirations.
Reigning two-time Nuggets MVP Nikola Jokic, one of the league’s best passers, looks set to thrive surrounded by sharpshooting colleagues, notes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. New additions Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Braun raved about the depths of the center’s hoops knowledge. “Jok is unbelievable,” Caldwell-Pope said. Braun added: “You try to learn from him because he knows your spot probably better than you do.”
Jazz role players Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley have already been through their share of rebuilds, and hope to use their wealth of experience to help guide the youth movement in Utah, writes Sarah Todd of Deseret News. “Just trying to bring those same qualities and pretty much we’re in the same boat, trying to rebuild and establish a culture and create winning habits,” Vanderbilt said. “[W]e’ve been on three programs [with the Nuggets and the Timberwolves] that before we got there they weren’t playoff contending teams. “We ended up helping be a part of rebuilds and being a part of changing culture. This is not new for us.”

And-Ones: Breakout Candidates, Wembanyama, Thornwell

October 21st, 2022 at 12:36pm CST by Luke Adams

Michael Scotto of HoopsHype polled 20 NBA executives on their top three breakout candidates for the 2022/23 season and found that Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey was the most popular pick. While I’d argue that last season represented a breakout year for Maxey, some executives have far higher expectations for him going forward.

“Maxey’s going to be better than James Harden,” one general manager said to Scotto. “He just keeps getting better and better and will be a huge reason why they have success this season.”

Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton, Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards, Magic forward Franz Wagner, and Rockets guard Jalen Green were among the other popular breakout picks, based on the responses Scotto got from executives. Interestingly, Warriors big man James Wiseman and Pistons forward/center Marvin Bagley III were each picked as this year’s top breakout candidate by one GM.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

In his latest look at the top prospects in the 2023 NBA draft class, David Aldridge of The Athletic passes along several entertaining quotes from NBA executives, including one Eastern Conference exec’s response to whether Scoot Henderson could surpass Victor Wembanyama as next year’s No. 1 pick: “Scoot’s good, but, no. Short of Wembanyama having murdered somebody, there’s just no way.”
Veteran guard Sindarius Thornwell has signed with Frutti Extra Bursasport, the Turkish team announced this week (via Twitter). Thornwell has appeared in 160 total NBA games and played for New Orleans and Atlanta in 2020/21, but wasn’t in the league last season.
Longtime NBA referee Tony Brown, who officiated over 1,100 games, including one in the 2020 NBA Finals, passed away on Thursday after a fight with pancreatic cancer, according to his family (story via ESPN.com).

PJ Dozier To Join Iowa Wolves

October 20th, 2022 at 10:42pm CST by Dana Gauruder

PJ Dozier will start the season with the Timberwolves’ NBA G League affiliate, the Iowa Wolves, Darren Wolfson of KSTP tweets. Minnesota waived Dozier, who was on an Exhibit 10 contract, on Saturday as the team pared its roster to the 15-man limit. The former Denver wing tore his ACL last December and didn’t appear in any preseason games prior to being waived. Iowa’s opener is in two weeks.

Rudy Gobert said it will be “weird” to face his former Jazz teammates on Friday, Chris Hine of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. “It’s all love for me,” the Timberwolves center said. “You know, I want to see these guys succeed and I’m sure they want to see me succeed, too.”

Wolves Notes: Gobert, Towns, Garza, Russell

October 20th, 2022 at 11:44am CST by Luke Adams

The Timberwolves weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders in their 115-108 win over Oklahoma City to open the regular season on Wednesday. Stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards combined to shoot just 6-of-27 from the field for a total of 23 points.

However, center Rudy Gobert made his presence felt in his regular season debut with his new team, leading the way with 23 points and 16 rebounds. Head coach Chris Finch said after the game that Gobert’s “impact was strong everywhere,” while the center himself said there’s still plenty of work to do.

“It shows how good we can be and how much better we can be at the same time,” Gobert said of the Wolves’ up-and-down play in the opener, per Jim Souhan of The Star Tribune. “It’s going to be a process and every night is going to be an opportunity for us to get better.”

Here’s more on the Wolves:

The Wolves’ frontcourt pairing of Gobert and Towns, rivals turned allies, is the NBA’s biggest experiment entering this season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic writes in an article looking back at how the duo came together and what we should expect from the two star big men.
Luka Garza was thrilled to have his Exhibit 10 contract converted into a two-way deal at the end of the preseason, as Kent Youngblood of The Star Tribune details. “The coaching staff, the system, the players, everything kinds of fit me really well,” Garza said. “For a young big in this league there is no better environment to be in, with the best offensive big in the league and the best defensive big man. What better guys to learn from?” The opportunity to spend some time with the Iowa Wolves was an added bonus for the former Hawkeyes star. “I’m from (Washington) D.C., but now it feels like I’m from Iowa. So I’m super excited,” he said.
A potential unrestricted free agent in 2023, D’Angelo Russell enters this season seeking redemption after a disappointing showing in the Wolves’ first-round playoff loss this spring, says Chris Hine of The Star Tribune.
Michael Rand of The Star Tribune identifies five factors that will help determine how high the Timberwolves’ ceiling is, including their defensive consistency, Russell’s performance in a contract year, and the team’s role players being a net positive.