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Players Likely To Get Rookie Scale Max Extensions In 2023

April 19th, 2023 at 11:06am CST by Rory Maher

The 2020 NBA draft was a strange one for a number of reasons. It wasn’t viewed as the strongest class by scouts and analysts, and there was no consensus top overall pick. The COVID-19 pandemic also (understandably) made it much more difficult for teams to scout and interview players due to travel restrictions.

Rookies from the class were also negatively impacted, as they were drafted in November and the 2020/21 season started one month later, with shortened training camps. Normally rookies have up to four months to spend with their new teams, including summer league and full training camps. The truncated offseason put all players behind the curve, but the ones without NBA experience were hit hardest.

It’s fair to say the 2020 class has been relatively disappointing overall to this point, especially some of the players drafted in the top 10.

However, there are still some excellent players who were selected in the first round, and I believe three of them are basically locks to receive maximum-salary rookie scale extensions at the beginning of July (the new contracts will kick in starting in ‘24/25). They all have areas they need to improve on, but the potential and production are there.

The top candidates

Anthony Edwards, G/F, Timberwolves

After spending much of his first two seasons playing small forward, Edwards primarily played shooting guard in 2022/23 and had a career year, averaging 24.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals on .459/.369/.756 shooting in 79 regular season games (36.0 MPG). The top overall pick of 2020 was named an All-Star for the first time this season.

Edwards has been durable, has improved nearly across the board in each of his three seasons, is arguably the best athlete in the class, and is only 21 years old. The fact that the Wolves were able to stay afloat with Karl-Anthony Towns missing most of the season is a testament to Edwards’ growth, and there’s still plenty of room for improvement.

LaMelo Ball, G, Hornets

The 2020/21 Rookie of the Year was an All-Star in year two after averaging 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 1.6 steals on .429/.389/.872 shooting in 75 games (32.3 MPG). Ball, the third overall pick in 2020, followed that up by averaging 23.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 1.3 steals on .411/.376/.836 shooting in ’22/23.

The problem was, Ball sustained multiple left ankle sprains and then fractured his right ankle on a non-contact play at the end of February, which limited him to 36 games this season.

I highly doubt those ankle injuries will impact his next contract, though they are a little worrisome. It’s possible the Hornets might push for some type of protections on the deal, but I’d be a little surprised — Ball played 75 games in ‘21/22.

Tyrese Haliburton, G, Pacers

Several draft analysts had Haliburton high on their boards, but he wound up falling to the Kings at No. 12 overall. He played very well in his stint with Sacramento, but his fit with fellow point guard De’Aaron Fox was less than perfect, particularly defensively, and the Kings memorably traded him in February 2022 for a package headlined by big man Domantas Sabonis.

The deal has worked out well for both teams. Haliburton thrived as a full-time point guard for the Pacers to end last season, and he was outstanding in 2022/23, making his first All-Star appearance while averaging 20.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists and 1.6 steals on a sparkling .490/.400/.871 shooting line in 56 games (33.6 MPG).

Advanced stats nearly universally say Haliburton has been the top player from his class through three seasons. His efficiency and excellent decision-making stand out.

The 23-year-old only averaged 2.5 turnovers per game this season, good for a 4.15-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio – an excellent mark. Indiana went 28-28 with him in the lineup, versus 7-19 without him.

The borderline candidates

Two other first-round picks from 2020 are likely to receive massive extension offers this summer, but I’m not sure if they’ll get the full max – I could see it going either way.

Tyrese Maxey, G, Sixers

Given his relatively modest numbers as a rookie, Maxey’s enormous leap in ‘21/22 was pretty surprising (and impressive). He averaged 17.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists on .485/.427/.866 shooting in 75 games (35.3 MPG) in his second NBA season. The former 21st overall pick had a strong playoff showing as well, averaging 20.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists on .484/.377/.940 shooting in 12 games (40.4 MPG).

Maxey maintained his great outside shooting this season, averaging 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists on .481/.434/.845 shooting in 60 games (33.6 MPG).

Still just 22 years old, Maxey is electric with the ball in his hands and is one of the fastest players in the league, making him a terror in transition. While he rarely turns the ball over, he’s more of a shooting guard than a point guard at this time, frequently looking to score instead of distribute.

However, he’s only 6’2″, so he can realistically only defend point guards, and he doesn’t have great instincts on that end. Most of the players listed here need to work on becoming more consistent defenders, but the other players have size advantages and are better at making plays both on and off the ball defensively.

The new CBA allows players eligible for rookie scale extensions to sign five-year deals – they were previously limited to four-year contracts. With that in mind, I think Maxey is highly likely to receive an offer in the range of $160-170MM over five years, but I’d be mildly surprised if he gets the full projected $200MM+ due to his limitations as a play-maker and defender (whether he accepts less than a max deal is another story).

Desmond Bane, G/F, Grizzlies

A four-year college player out of TCU, Bane was the last pick of the first round in 2020. He had a quality rookie season, mostly off the bench, averaging 9.2 points and 3.1 rebounds on .469/.432/.816 shooting in 68 games (17 starts, 22.3 MPG).

Like Maxey, Bane emerged as one of the most improved players in the league last season, averaging 18.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.2 steals on .461/.436/.903 shooting in 76 games (29.8 MPG). He was even better in ‘22/23, putting up 21.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.4 APG and 1.0 SPG on .479/.408/.883 shooting in 58 games (31.7 MPG).

From a statistical standpoint, the 24-year-old has a legitimate argument for getting a max deal. He’s an elite shooter and is a solid play-maker and defender.

My only real questions as far as a max deal are: Can Bane be one of the best players on a championship-level team? Is he good enough at creating his own shot? I did view Memphis as a legitimate contender this year until Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke went down with injuries.

Bane is already an excellent player who has shown consistent improvement year over year. Every team in the league would love to have him. I’m just not totally sold on a full max, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets it, and it’s hard to say he hasn’t earned it.

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Nuggets Notes: Connelly, KCP, Murray, Defense, Malone

April 18th, 2023 at 9:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Former Nuggets president of basketball operations and current Timberwolves executive Tim Connelly feels strange facing his former team in the first round of the playoffs, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post (subscription required). Connelly still communicates with members of the Denver organization on a regular basis.

“I mean, we talk all the time. It’s more just stupid memes or non-basketball stories we talk about. These people are like family,” he said.

We have more on the Nuggets:

  • They gave Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a two-year, $30MM extension last offseason after acquiring him from the Wizards, and his defense and championship pedigree played a big role in that decision, Harrison Wind of TheDNVR.com writes. Michael Porter Jr. considers KCP the ultimate glue guy. “It doesn’t matter if he gets 12 shots that night, four shots that night, he’s going to still play the right way,” Porter said. “He’s going to make the extra pass. He’s going to play defense.” Caldwell-Pope had 15 points and committed just one turnover in 31 minutes during the team’s Game 1 109-80 victory.
  • Following a laborious recovery last season from a serious knee injury, Jamal Murray is relishing the return to the postseason, Singer writes in a subscriber-only story. Murray had a game-high 24 points, eight rebounds and eight assists on Sunday night with just one turnover. He said the last time he was as excited for any game was the first game back from his ACL tear.
  • Coach Michael Malone repeatedly said during the season that defensive improvement would be the key to a championship run. He saw a lot of good things in Game 1, as the current group displayed its defensive versatility, according to Tony Jones of The Athletic. “It was a stellar defensive performance through four quarters,” Malone said. “Guys were locked in through the entire game. That’s the kind of effort we are going to need through the series. It’s important that we don’t let this win linger. We have a lot of work to do.”
  • However, Malone doesn’t want his team to rest on its laurels heading into Game 2 on Wednesday, Jones adds in a separate story. Their practice film session on Tuesday emphasized the negative. “I made sure to tell the guys that we haven’t done a damn thing,” Malone said. “We’re trying to win a championship, and if we are going to do that, we have 15 more games to win. There are a lot of things that we could have done better in Game 1. That’s what film was about and what practice was about (Tuesday) morning. We want to identify the areas where we can be better. My job is to keep the guys humble.”
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Injury Updates: Morant, Payne, James, Davis, George, Gobert, Jokic

April 18th, 2023 at 8:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Grizzlies star guard Ja Morant is officially listed as questionable to play in Game 2 of their first-round series against the Lakers, the team’s PR department tweets. Morant is dealing with right hand soreness. He landed hard on the court while committing a charge during the fourth quarter of Game 1.

Adrian Wojnarowski said on the “NBA on ESPN” show that he “does not sense a great deal of optimism” that Morant will play on Wednesday (Twitter link). An MRI on Monday revealed an aggravation of soft tissue bruising in Morant’s hand. He originally injured the hand in the Grizzlies’ April 7 win over Milwaukee, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon.

We have more injury-related updates:

  • Suns reserve guard Cameron Payne won’t play in Game 2 against the Clippers on Tuesday, Chris Haynes of TNT tweets. Payne hasn’t played since April 7 due to a back injury.
  • Both members of the Lakers’ dynamic duo popped up on the injury report submitted the team’s PR department, Jovan Buha of The Athletic tweets. However, they are listed as probable for Game 2 against Memphis, with LeBron James dealing with right foot soreness and Anthony Davis nursing a right foot stress injury.
  • Clippers forward Paul George did a mix of conditioning and shooting drills during a workout prior to the team’s shootaround on Tuesday, Andrew Greif of the Los Angeles Times reports. George is recovering from a sprained right knee and it remains uncertain whether he’ll play at all during the first-round series.
  • Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert is listed as questionable to play in Game 2 of their series against the Nuggets on Wednesday due to back spasms, the team’s PR department tweets.
  • While it would be surprising if he didn’t play in Game 2, Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is also listed as questionable due to a right wrist sprain, Mike Singer of the Denver Post tweets. Jokic participated in practice on Tuesday and didn’t seem to think the sprain was overly serious.
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Towns Must Carry Club Vs. Nuggets

April 17th, 2023 at 9:32pm CST by Dana Gauruder
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Poll: Western Conference’s First Round Playoff Series

April 15th, 2023 at 3:57pm CST by Luke Adams

After calling for your predictions for the four first round series in the Eastern Conference earlier in the day, we’re pivoting to the West this afternoon.

Here are the four first round series in the Western Conference:

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Unlike in the East, where there are a handful of overwhelming favorites at the top of the conference, the Western Conference field appears more wide open as the playoffs begin. The Nuggets are heavily favored in this series, but their betting line (-550, per BetOnline.ag) isn’t anywhere close to the -1200 and -1300 lines we were seeing in the East.

As good as the Nuggets were this season, they weren’t playing their best basketball down the stretch, having lost five of their last seven games and 10 of their last 17 entering the postseason. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, had a disappointing year, but have a lot of high-end talent on their roster, including three-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns, three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, and ascendant All-Star Anthony Edwards.

A Timberwolves team playing to its full potential could give Denver trouble, but we haven’t seen that often this season. It would be a major upset if Tim Connelly‘s new team can get past his old one.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

After incorporating their trade-deadline acquisitions on February 11, the Lakers went 18-8 to close the regular season, which would translate to a 57-win pace over 82 games.

Throw in the fact that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are relatively healthy and two key members of the Grizzlies‘ frontcourt (Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke) aren’t, and it’s easy to understand why Memphis is only a slight favorite (-142) over Los Angeles (+122) in this series.

Still, the Grizzlies had the best net rating (+4.0) in the West this season and history is working in their favor — as John Hollinger of The Athletic writes, the NBA’s No. 7 and No. 8 playoff seeds have lost 95 of 100 first round series in the last 25 years. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and company won’t be intimidated by the Lakers’ star power.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

The Kings‘ reward for snapping a 16-season playoff drought is a first-round matchup against the defending champions, who have won titles in four of the last eight years.

The Warriors‘ impressive track record in the postseason has made them betting favorites (-265) in this series over Sacramento (+225). Golden State has had an up-and-down year, but has a huge experience edge in this matchup and seemed to be hitting its stride at the right time in the season’s final weeks. With Andrew Wiggins set to be available for Game 1, the roster is at full strength and will present a tough challenge for the higher-seeded Kings.

Still, the Kings have been exceeding expectations all season long, and their home crowd should be whipped into a frenzy for the first NBA playoff basketball in Sacramento since 2006. This has a chance to be a very fun series.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

The key for both of these star-studded rosters is staying healthy. Suns forward Kevin Durant and guard Chris Paul have battled multiple injuries over the years, including this season, as have Clippers forwards Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Suns have the health advantage entering this series, with George considered unlikely to play vs. Phoenix as he recovers from a sprained knee.

Even if PG13 can return to action before the series ends, the Clippers will be in tough against a Phoenix team that has looked incredibly dangerous with Durant on the court. The former MVP has only played in eight games for the Suns since being acquired at the trade deadline, but they’ve won all eight, outscoring opponents by a total of 88 points in those contests.

The Suns are considered strong betting favorites, with a -465 line at BetOnline.ag.

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Northwest Notes: Watson, NAW, Saric, Blazers

April 15th, 2023 at 12:52pm CST by Luke Adams

Nuggets rookie Peyton Watson didn’t play more than 10 minutes in an NBA game until March 31, but he averaged 22.4 MPG in Denver’s last six contests and his teammates were impressed by what they saw, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post (subscriber link). More importantly, Watson quickly earned the confidence of head coach Michael Malone.

“If I have to use Peyton Watson in a playoff series, I will, if the situation calls upon it,” Malone said. “He’s shown me he can go out there against some really good players and teams and impact the game in a positive light.”

The 30th overall pick last June, Watson scored double-digit points in two of the Nuggets’ last six games and blocked three shots in two separate games. As Singer writes, the 20-year-old presumably won’t be part of Malone’s regular playoff rotation, but could be a fit in certain switchable, defensive-oriented lineups.

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker was something of an afterthought in February’s three-team Mike Conley/D’Angelo Russell/Russell Westbrook blockbuster, but the Timberwolves made his development a priority, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. As Krawczynski notes, that work paid off in Friday’s play-in game, when Alexander-Walker filled up the box score (12 points, six assists, four rebounds, three steals, two blocks) and helped limit his cousin Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to a 5-of-19 night. Alexander-Walker will be eligible for restricted free agency this July.
  • Asked on Saturday about his impending free agency, Thunder forward Dario Saric said he really enjoyed his time in Oklahoma City and would like to return, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman (Twitter links). Saric went on to use an unorthodox metaphor to praise the organization. “You know, sometimes you can feel it,” he said of the Thunder. “Same like laptops. Some laptops are better than other ones. You know what I mean? Sometimes they have the same controls … but some of them are better, and that’s what I would say.”
  • This summer appears likely to be the Trail Blazers‘ last chance to make the right roster moves around Damian Lillard to steer the team toward contention, according to Bill Oram of The Oregonian. If that doesn’t happen, Oram writes, a breakup between Lillard and the Blazers could be around the corner.
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Injury Notes: Wolves, Murray, Middleton, George

April 14th, 2023 at 9:00pm CST by Rory Maher

The Timberwolves will have both of their three-time All-Star big men active for Friday’s final play-in game against the Thunder, Minnesota announced (via Twitter). Rudy Gobert (back spasms) and Karl-Anthony Towns (right calf strain) were upgraded from questionable to available and will start, per the team.

Wolves guard Jaylen Nowell, who was previously questionable with left knee tendinopathy, will also be active. Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News was first to report (via Twitter) that Nowell would be ready to go.

In an interesting rotational change, the Wolves are inserting Nickeil Alexander-Walker into the starting lineup for the first time to defend his cousin, Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

“They’re cousins, so there should be familiarity there but we like Nickeil’s ability to go get him full court and his size on him,” head coach Chris Finch said before the game (Twitter link via Alan Horton of Wolves Radio).

Here are some more injury notes from around the NBA:

  • Nuggets guard Jamal Murray continues to be hampered by a nagging right thumb sprain on his shooting hand, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post (subscriber link). “I’m still thinking about it,” Murray said. “I’m full participating (in practice). It’s just sore. Every catch, every shot, I’m always fiddling with it trying to make it feel better, but it’ll be OK.” Denver’s second-leading scorer has been dealing with the injury for a few weeks, Singer adds, but he’s otherwise healthy and feeling ready for the playoffs.
  • Khris Middleton, a three-time All-Star for the Bucks, was a full practice participant on Thursday, according to an Associated Press report (link via ESPN). Middleton experienced discomfort in his right knee on April 5 against Chicago, causing him to leave the game early. Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton were partial practice participants, per The AP — both players are dealing with right ankle sprains, causing them to miss the final few games of the regular season (four for Allen, three for Connaughton). The Bucks will face the Heat in their first-round playoff series after Miami defeated Chicago and advanced as the No. 8 seed in the East.
  • Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters, including Law Murray of The Athletic, that star wing Paul George, who has been out since March 21 after suffering a right knee sprain, is making progress in his recovery. However, the team won’t rush him back for its first-round series against Phoenix, with Lue saying the Clippers need George to be “close to 100 percent” in order to prevent a possible re-injury. While there’s no official timeline for George’s return, a source tells Murray the veteran forward is targeting a potential second-round return, assuming the Clippers advance (Twitter link).
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Poll: Friday’s NBA Play-In Games

April 14th, 2023 at 7:42am CST by Luke Adams

This is only the third year that the NBA’s play-in tournament has existed in its current form, so it’s not as if there’s a lengthy play-in history to help contextualize this year’s results. Still, the results through the first four games have been unprecedented.

Coming into this year, no No. 7 seed had ever lost a play-in game — Miami became the first team to do so on Tuesday.

Coming into this year, no No. 10 seed had ever won a play-in game — Chicago and Oklahoma City both achieved this feat on Wednesday.

With three upsets in four games, the play-in results haven’t been easy to forecast. Only 11.55% of our poll respondents picked Atlanta and the Lakers to win on Tuesday, and the success rate wasn’t a whole lot better on Wednesday, with 17.88% of voters taking Chicago and Oklahoma City.

Will Friday’s games continue to produce unexpected results, or will the favorites bear down and advance to the first round of the playoffs?

In the East, where the winner will advance to face Milwaukee in round one, the Heat are six-point favorites at home against the Bulls, according to BetOnline.ag.

But Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss and has played inconsistent basketball for much of the season, while Chicago has played some of its best ball since adding Patrick Beverley on the buyout market in February. It’s also worth noting that the Heat went 0-3 vs. the Bulls during the season and were outscored by 32 points in those games.

Out West, the upstart Thunder will visit Minnesota as 5.5-point underdogs against the Timberwolves, with the winner on track to face top-seeded Denver.

The Wolves entered the season last fall with aspirations of making a deep playoff run, while Oklahoma City seemed more focus on player development than making the postseason. But the acclimation of Rudy Gobert in Minnesota hasn’t gone as smoothly as the front office hoped, while rising Thunder stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey are providing a preview of a bright future in OKC.

Entering Friday’s game, the vibes certainly seem better on the Thunder’s side, where no one has punched a wall or a teammate lately (as far as we know, anyway). And perhaps the fact that no one expected them to be here will help the Thunder play freer and more confidently than the Timberwolves, whose season would be considered an even bigger disappointment if they can’t secure a playoff berth.

We want to know what you think. Are we in for more upsets on Friday, or will the higher-seed Heat and Timberwolves claim the NBA’s last two available playoff spots?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

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Timberwolves Notes: Gobert, Back, Anderson, Offseason

April 13th, 2023 at 6:40pm CST by Rory Maher

Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert rejoined the team on Thursday after being suspended for Tuesday’s overtime loss to the Lakers, writes Dave Campbell of The Associated Press.

However, Gobert remains hampered by the back spams that he was experiencing on Sunday when he got into an altercation with Kyle Anderson that led to his suspension. He said he probably wouldn’t have been able to suit up on Tuesday either way, and his status for Friday’s matchup against the Thunder is up in the air.

“‘Still pretty sore, still not moving like I would like to be able to move, but small progress every day,” Gobert said.

Gobert, Jaylen Nowell (left knee tendinopathy) and Karl-Anthony Towns (right calf strain) are all questionable for Friday’s game, the team announced (via Twitter).

As for his relationship with Anderson, Gobert says they’ve moved past the incident, according to Campbell.

“We both apologized to each other and you move on. That’s life,” Gobert said. “It’s different when you have millions of people all watching videos and have an opinion on things that happened, but that we can’t control. What we can control is the respect that we have for each other and our relationship.

“I still love Kyle. He’s still my brother. I tell people, ‘Sometimes you fight with your family. Sometimes you fight with people that you have a lot of love and respect for.’ It’s life. No one is perfect. Mistakes happen and then you grow and you move on.”

Here’s more on the Wolves:

  • Anderson told reporters prior to Tuesday’s game that he and Gobert had moved on by Sunday night, tweets Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. “We definitely hashed it out,” Anderson said. “That happens all the time in sports. I feel like people are acting like they’ve never seen it before. We’re grown men. We’re able to put it behind us. We both want to win. We spoke about it that night and just seeing how everything is playing out is kind of lame, honestly. We’re teammates at the end of the day. I don’t want it to be a Kyle vs. Rudy thing. That’s never the case. I always got my teammates’ back, and we moved on.”
  • Jim Souhan of The Star Tribune downplays the significance of Friday’s play-in game against the Thunder, as he doesn’t think the Wolves stand a chance against the top-seeded Nuggets anyway even if they win and advance as the No. 8 seed. However, Souhan does believe it could be a critical moment in Gobert’s career, writing that the center’s “remarkable immaturity” on Sunday was just the latest in a string of questionable decisions the 30-year-old has made over the past few years.
  • The altercation between Gobert and Anderson wasn’t the only unfortunate incident on Sunday — Jaden McDaniels punched a wall out of frustration after picking up a couple early fouls and broke his hand. Did those events — combined with the team’s inconsistent play and a limited sample size of the Gobert/Towns pairing — make the Wolves’ offseason plans even more complicated? Michael Rand and Patrick Reusse of The Star Tribune explored that topic in a recent podcast.
  • Anderson’s on-court versatility and strong defense were key factors in the Wolves finishing with a winning record in 2022/23 despite missing Towns for most of the season. Anderson’s blunt yet effective communication style also played a role in the team’s success, as Hine writes for the Star Tribune.
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Poll: Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Games

April 11th, 2023 at 8:16am CST by Luke Adams

By the end of the night on Tuesday, two more first-round playoff matchups will be locked in, with the No. 7 seeds in both conferences having been determined.

[RELATED: NBA’s Play-In Field, Top-Six Playoff Seeds Set]

The Eastern Conference’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup pits Jimmy Butler and the 44-38 Heat against Trae Young and the 41-41 Hawks. The two Southeast clubs will do battle on Tuesday at 7:30 pm Eastern time in Miami for the right to face the second-seeded Celtics in the first round.

Miami is the home team in this game, won the season series with Atlanta (3-1), and will enter as a 4.5-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag. The Heat haven’t looked as good this season as they did in 2021/22, when they claimed the top seed in the East and came within a couple plays of making the NBA Finals. But they’re as healthy now as they’ve been at any time this season and were far better at home (27-14) than on the road.

Miami has also done a good job defending Young — his 19.8 points per game on .356/.208/.865 shooting in four games this season vs. the Heat were the worst numbers he put up against any Eastern Conference team.

Atlanta, meanwhile, has been the epitome of a .500 club this season. Since going 13-13 in their first 26 games, the Hawks have had a .500 record an incredible 22 more times en route to a 41-41 finish.

Still, like the Heat, the Hawks are healthy entering Tuesday’s play-in game. They’ve been a winning team (38-35) when Young is available and have been a little more effective under head coach Quin Snyder (+1.8 net rating) than they were under Nate McMillan (-0.5). Perhaps Atlanta will also benefit from past play-in experience — the club won two play-in games a year ago to claim the No. 8 seed in the East.

Over in the West, the No. 7 Lakers (43-39) will host the No. 8 Timberwolves (42-20) in the second play-in game of the night to determine which team will advance to the playoffs and face the Grizzlies in round one.

The Lakers are eight-point favorites and it’s not hard to see why. Since their trade-deadline additions debuted on February 11, the Lakers have the NBA’s sixth-best net rating (+4.8) and third-best record (18-8), despite missing star forward LeBron James for 13 of those games. They’re playing their best basketball of the season at exactly the right time.

The Timberwolves, on the other hand, are entering the play-in tournament with their huge 2022 offseason addition – Rudy Gobert – set to serve a one-game suspension after punching a teammate on the sidelines in Sunday’s regular season finale. Meanwhile, breakout All-Defensive candidate Jaden McDaniels, whom the Wolves insisted on keeping when they dealt for Gobert, will be sidelined due to a separate punch — this one, aimed at a wall, broke McDaniels’ hand.

With Naz Reid (wrist surgery) also unavailable and Karl-Anthony Towns (right calf strain) listed as questionable, the Wolves will be the shorthanded team on Tuesday, but it’s worth noting that amidst all their drama and injuries, they pulled off an impressive comeback win over New Orleans on Sunday to claim the eighth spot in the West. Maybe the turmoil will help the team come together and pull off an upset victory in Los Angeles.

We want to know what you think. Which two teams will win tonight’s games and claim the No. 7 seeds for the playoffs?

Vote in our poll below, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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