NBA Expansion

Stein’s Latest: Nets, Giannis, Mexico City, Spurs

The Nets lost both games of their back-to-back set on Friday and Saturday, but they pushed the Celtics to overtime on Friday in Boston and took the undefeated Cavaliers down to the wire in Cleveland on Saturday.

Projected before the season to be the NBA’s worst team, Brooklyn has looked surprisingly competitive under new head coach Jordi Fernandez, winning four of its first 10 games and holding its own against a relatively tough schedule. Only two of the Nets’ losses have been by more than five points.

As Marc Stein writes in his latest Substack article, the Nets’ front office signaled during the summer by reacquiring control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks in a trade with Houston that they were expecting to finish firmly in the lottery. If they want to ensure the team has a shot at a franchise player in the ’25 draft, the front office may need to start making in-season deals sooner than expected, Stein notes.

According to Stein, Dennis Schröder, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Bojan Bogdanovic are the veterans mentioned most frequently by rival teams as Nets players they expect to be on the move by the February 6 trade deadline. All three are on manageable contracts (with cap hits below than $20MM) and could become unrestricted free agents in 2025. Schröder and Bogdanovic are on expiring deals, while Finney-Smith holds a player option for 2025/26.

Here’s more from Stein:

  • After writing last weekend about the “league-wide lusting” for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stein follows up to clarify that the league’s 29 non-Bucks teams understand the two-time MVP will only ever be made available if he pushes for a trade. That hasn’t happened, but several clubs have started planning for the possibility it might and have let Milwaukee know they’ll be ready to talk if and when the time comes, according to Stein.
  • Stein recently wrote about the idea of the NBA expanding to Mexico City and said he “just can’t see it happening.” In today’s Substack article, he says one “well-placed Mexico expert” warned him not to be so dismissive of the possibility, pointing out that the “immense financial opportunities” available in the country make it an idea the NBA won’t give up on easily. That source also pointed out that if the NBA realigns to four-team divisions, a Mexico City franchise would be well positioned to share a division with Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. Still, Las Vegas and Seattle remain the presumptive frontrunners for the league’s next round of expansion, says Stein.
  • The Spurs turned to 37-year-old Mitch Johnson rather than former NBA head coach Brett Brown with Gregg Popovich recently forced to be away from the team due to a health issue. As Stein explains, that was always the plan in the event that Popovich had to miss time, since Brown prefers to remain in his current role that allows him to provide guidance to the team’s young players, young coaches, and video staffers. Brown’s focus, per Stein, is on “helping Johnson thrive” as acting head coach.

And-Ones: Expansion, EuroLeague, G League Trades, Hawes

What would it look like if the NBA awarded expansion teams to a pair of new cities? In an entertaining story for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks broke down the rules governing expansion drafts, then submitted lists of protected players for each team to Tim Bontemps and Kevin Pelton, who conducted a mock expansion draft on behalf of the two hypothetical new franchises.

As Marks details, the rules for expansion drafts aren’t specifically laid out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but in the past, each existing NBA team has been permitted to protect up to eight players in the spring, including pending restricted free agents and/or players holding options. In those instances, expansion teams weren’t allowed to select more than one player from any of the NBA’s existing clubs.

Marks also lays out how expansion teams would be incorporated into the annual rookie draft (they’re typically not given the opportunity to land the No. 1 overall pick during their first couple seasons) and how the salary cap would work for them (their cap would be two-thirds of the league-wide cap in year one, 80% in year two, and the full cap in year three).

While expansion is likely still at least two or three years away, ESPN’s exercise is an informative one that helps illustrate with practical examples how new teams would fill out their rosters.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Donatas Urbonas of BasketNews.com (subscription required) takes a look at 10 notable players in the EuroLeague who are on expiring contracts and will reach free agency in 2025. Mathias Lessort, Kevin Punter, and Chima Moneke are among the headliners on Urbonas’ list who figure to be monitored by NBA teams in 2024/25.
  • The Westchester Knicks – New York’s G League affiliate – completed a pair of trades on Tuesday. Westchester sent Dmytro Skapintsev‘s returning rights to the Maine Celtics in exchange for the rights to Brandon Slater and Joe Wieskamp; in a separate deal, the Knicks’ NBAGL team acquired Brandon Williams‘ returning rights and a 2025 G League international draft pick from the Osceola Magic in exchange for the rights to Charlie Brown Jr. (Twitter links). The NBA’s Celtics signed Skapintsev to an Exhibit 10 contract on Tuesday.
  • Cyro Asseo de Choch of HoopsHype spoke to former NBA big man Spencer Hawes about the ups and downs of his playing career, which saw him appear in 684 regular season games for six teams from 2007-17. A 7’1″ center who made 35.0% of his career-three pointers, Hawes was asked if he felt like he arrived in the league a few years too early. “I kind of joke about my buddies. I missed the max (contract) by a couple of years,” Hawes said. “Well, I think the game just wasn’t in such a good place and my game as well. I came in kind of as a more traditional old-school post-up player and I realized that pretty quickly that wasn’t working. So, I kind of had to figure out a different way to try and get on the floor and help the team win.”

2027/28 Season Viewed As Target For NBA Expansion

One reason the NBA isn’t yet prepared to dive head-long into expansion talks is that a potential Celtics sale could reset the market, sources tell ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton, and Brian Windhorst. If the Celtics set a new record for the highest sale price ever for an NBA team, it would only increase the price tag for incoming expansion franchises, as ESPN’s trio notes.

Commissioner Adam Silver recently stated that the NBA is “not quite ready” to move forward on the expansion process, though he left the door open for those discussions to happen later on in the 2024/25 league year.

With the NBA continuing to drag its heels on expansion, league sources and people connected to potential bidding groups are viewing the 2027/28 season as the target date for when one or more expansion teams could begin playing, with the ’26/27 campaign considered an increasingly unrealistic – albeit not impossible – option, according to Bontemps, Pelton, and Windhorst.

Based on the growing valuations of NBA franchises, it’s not unrealistic to project that a pair of new teams could net the league $10 billion combined – or even more than that – in expansion fees, ESPN’s reporters suggest.

While some current NBA team owners are wary of further diluting their share of the league’s revenue by slicing off two more pieces of a “pie” currently being shared 30 ways, expansion fee payments (which don’t have to be shared with the players’ union) exceeding $300MM apiece could help sway those ownership groups, as Bontemps, Pelton, and Windhorst point out. Additionally, the $76 billion media rights deal negotiated by the NBA earlier this year has assuaged some owners’ concerns about sharing revenues with 31 partners instead of 29, the ESPN trio adds.

Here are a few more items of note from ESPN’s in-depth FAQ on the possibility of expansion:

  • Although the National Basketball Players Association has no real voice in the expansion process, the union would be “very much in favor” of adding 36 new jobs (30 standard roster spots and six two-way slots) for its members, sources tell ESPN.
  • Seattle and Las Vegas are widely considered the favorites to land expansion teams, but they likely won’t be the only cities receiving consideration. Sources who spoke to ESPN view Mexico City as the most likely candidate to seriously enter the mix along with Seattle and Vegas, though Bontemps, Pelton, and Windhorst acknowledge there would be a number of “logistical hurdles” to contend with.
  • If Seattle and Las Vegas land expansion teams, they would both have to be Western Conference clubs, meaning one current Western team would have to move to the Eastern Conference. According to ESPN, that decision would likely come down to the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves, with Minnesota considered the most logical choice to move East since the Wolves are geographically closer to five Eastern opponents than they are to their closest Western opponent (Denver). Still, it could be a “protracted fight” to determine which team would change conferences.
  • The ownership group of the NHL’s Seattle Kraken – led by Samantha Holloway and her father David Bonderman – is considered the most likely bidder for a Seattle franchise, per ESPN. Hall of Fame NBA executive Rick Welts has served as an advisor for the Kraken ownership group, which also includes the sons of former Sonics owner Barry Ackerley. Chris Hansen, who previously attempted to relocate the Sacramento Kings to Seattle, isn’t expected to lead a bid to bring the NBA to the city, but would be willing to assist in the process, ESPN’s trio adds.
  • Active NBA players aren’t permitted to own a stake in an existing franchise, but the rules for an active player becoming a stakeholder in an expansion franchise (before it begins play) aren’t as clear. Those rules may need to be clarified in the coming years, with LeBron James seriously interested in getting involved in a bid for a Las Vegas team. According to ESPN’s report, former Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry is putting together a group to bid for a Vegas franchise — that group is expected to include longtime WNBA star Candace Parker.

Silver: League Still Isn’t Ready To Tackle Expansion

The league isn’t quite ready to explore expansion talks, NBA commissioner Adam Silver revealed during a Tuesday press conference. Silver addressed the media after the league’s Board of Governors meeting.

“There was not a lot of discussion in this meeting about expansion, but only largely not for lack of interest, it was that we had said to them that we’re not quite ready,” Silver said, per ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. “It was something that we told our board we plan to address this season, and we’re not quite ready yet. But I think there’s certainly interest in the process, and I think that we’re not there yet in terms of having made any specific decisions about markets or even frankly to expand.”

Expansion has been put off while the league negotiated a new Collective Bargaining Agreement and reached new broadcast deals. With those items in the rear view mirror, the league could eventually discuss expansion in the coming months. The first step in that process, according to Bontemps, would be forming a committee of several owners to explore the topic and determine what the next steps would be.

Here’s more from Silver’s press conference and the BOG meeting:

  • The commissioner would prefer that legalized sports betting had a “federal framework,” rather than being a state competition with varying rules. “I was in favor of a federal framework for sports betting. I still am,” he said. “I still think that the hodgepodge of state by state, it makes it more difficult for the league to administer it. I think it creates competition, understandably, among states to get — just think New York, New Jersey or a situation like that where you’re both competing for the same customer, so you can compete on tax rates and other things and a regulatory framework.”
  • The league is essentially in wait-and-see mode regarding the potential sales of two franchises, the Timberwolves and the Celtics, according to The Associated Press’ Tim Reynolds. Minnesota’s dispute between current majority owner Glen Taylor and potential majority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez is headed to arbitration. “That’s a process that exists independent of the league that was set out in the sales agreement,” Silver said. Boston’s ownership group, led by Wyc Grousbeck, intends to sell the majority of its shares later this year or early next year, then close on a sale of the balance of remaining shares in 2028. “I think that Wyc Grousbeck and his ownership group are in the process of working through what the steps will be,” Silver said.
  • Raptors Governor and Chairman of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Larry Tanenbaum has been re-elected as the Board’s chairman, NBA Communications tweets. Tanenbaum has served in that role since 2017.
  • The league could have a national streaming RSN platform as soon as the 2025/26 season, according to the Sports Business Journal’s Tom Friend. Numerous teams were affected Diamond Sports bankruptcy proceedings. Diamond is the parent company of Bally Sports. “I think coming out of this, when we look at the interest of streaming services to carry local games and all the additional functionality that will come to that, there will be a transition and transition for our viewers, as well, in terms of how they discover those games and how they watch them, that I think the end result will be a much better consumer experience,” Silver said.