- Second-year Pelicans center Jaxson Hayes has made some positive strides this season, according to Christian Clark of NOLA.com, who says Hayes’ next step for continued growth is to establish more consistency. The big man will make $5.35MM in 2021/22 and New Orleans will have to decide later this year whether to pick up his $6.8MM option for 2022/23.
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.
Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball has shown why he’s so polarizing during the team’s most recent home stretch, Christian Clark of NOLA.com writes.
Ball has delivered both good and bad performances since returning from a hip flexor strain in April, but one thing is certain: New Orleans is a far better team when it receives strong production from the 23-year-old.
“Lonzo is one of the most highly scrutinized players I’ve ever seen,” executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin said in March, as noted by Clark. “He has the most polarized narrative around him. He’s either the greatest player in the NBA or the worst player that’s ever played. Apparently, there is no in-between.”
Ball is holding per-game averages of 14.7 points, 5.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds on the season. He’s set to reach restricted free agency this summer.
Here are some other notes from the Southwest Division tonight:
- Spurs coach Gregg Popovich may be the last of his kind, Mike Finger of the San Antonio Express-News writes. Popovich is widely regarded as one of the greatest coaches in NBA history, spending the past 25 years as head coach of the team.
- The rant delivered by Pelicans EVP of basketball operations David Griffin about the team’s officiating concerns was meant to help Zion Williamson down the road, as Scott Kushner of NOLA.com explains. Griffin received a $50,000 fine for criticizing the officiating, noting that Williamson hasn’t received enough respect from many referees this season.
- Spurs guard Lonnie Walker IV enjoys closing out games for the team, but doesn’t seem to mind coming off the bench to start contests, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News writes. “I could care less about starting,” Walker said. “I could care less about being on the bench. But being able to play in the final few minutes of the game and close it out, that’s my favorite time.”
The NBA has fined Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin $50K for “public criticism of the officiating and comments detrimental to the NBA,” the league announced (via Twitter).
Griffin’s comments came Friday in response to a fractured finger that could keep Zion Williamson out for the rest of the season, writes Christian Clark of NOLA.com. Griffin called the injury “avoidable” and said referees are allowing opponents to enjoy an “open season” on the second-year forward.
“We told the NBA through every means available to us … that the way they were officiating Zion was going to get him injured,” Griffin said. “Quite frankly, he’s injured because of the open season that there’s been on Zion Williamson in the paint. He has been absolutely mauled in the paint on a regular basis to the point where other players have said to him, ‘I’m going to keep doing this to you’ because they don’t call it. There is more violence encouraged on him in the paint than any player I’ve seen since (Shaquille O’Neal). It was egregious and horrific then. The same is true now.”
Griffin said Williamson’s injury didn’t occur on a single play, but was the result of excessive contact “over a period of time.”
“It’s a blunt-force injury,” Griffin said. “He was being beaten on the hand over and over and over again. For me to tell you one time, I don’t think I can do that. I don’t think he knows one time.”
The Pelicans made big news on Friday when they announced Zion Williamson would be out indefinitely with a fractured left ring finger. Somewhat under the radar was GM David Griffin’s comment about Brandon Ingram‘s status. Griffin said that Ingram’s left ankle sprain “is going to sideline him indefinitely,” Andrew Lopez of ESPN tweets. Ingram was injured during Tuesday’s game against Golden State.
We have more on the Pelicans:
- As we noted, Griffin ripped the league’s officiating regarding Williamson, despite the fact he’s among the top five in the league in free throws per game. Griffin says Williamson’s power game and physical style shouldn’t influence how games are officiated, Christian Clark of the New Orleans Times Picayune relays. “I’ve heard officials say this to (head coach) Stan (Van Gundy): ‘Look, the kid’s a beast. He just brings about a bunch of contact,’” Griffin said. “OK, well that doesn’t have anything to do with what you’re supposed to be calling. I almost feel like they didn’t know how to deal with someone so sudden and so strong. So they sort of threw their hands up in the air.”
- Griffin’s claims regarding the lack of calls for Williamson are broken down in detail by Will Guillory of The Athletic. Guillory says that Griffin’s claims have some validity, balanced out by the fact that the league doesn’t want every game to turn into a parade to the free throw line. Thus, while it’s logical for Griffin to support his franchise player, his claims will likely fall on deaf ears.
- Newcomer Naji Marshall will receive approximately $120K this season, about double the minimum he could have gotten, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Instagram video). The breakdown on Marshall’s four-year contract include a $1.5MM guarantee for next season, $1.8MM for the 2022/23 season and a $1.93MM team option in 2023/24.
Dennis Schröder and Lonzo Ball could be potential targets for the Bulls in free agency this summer, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
Appearing on ESPN’s NBA Countdown on Friday, Wojnarowski indicated Chicago will be in the market for a starting point guard (hat tip to Blake Schuster of Bleacher Report).
“Point guard is going to be at a premium for them,” Wojarnowski said.
Schröder, who is currently out due to the league’s health and safety protocols, reportedly turned down a four-year, $80MM+ contract extension offer from the Lakers. It’s likely he’ll be one of the top unrestricted free agents on the market. The Knicks are among the other teams who could potentially make a run at Schröder.
Ball’s situation is a little cloudier. New Orleans must decide whether to extend a $14.36MM qualifying offer, which would make Ball a restricted free agent. If the Pelicans do that, they’ll have the right to match any offer. Chicago’s potential interest in Ball has previously been reported, as has the Knicks’ interest.
The Bulls’ cap space this summer is dependent on their decisions regarding two players with partially guaranteed contracts (Tomas Satoransky, Thaddeus Young), restricted free agent Lauri Markkanen, and Ryan Arcidiacono ($3MM team option).
Pelicans star big man Zion Williamson has a fractured left ring finger and will be sidelined indefinitely, according to the team’s Twitter feed.
Williamson underwent a series of diagnostic tests on Thursday before the team departed for its game tonight at Philadelphia. A CT scan revealed the injury. A treatment plan and timetable for his return will be determined upon further evaluation, the team adds.
The loss of Williamson could kill off New Orleans’ playoff aspirations. The Pelicans are still in the running for the play-in tournament, sitting a game-and-a-half behind San Antonio for the 10th and final spot.
GM David Griffin held a press conference moments after the injury was announced and ripped the league’s officials, claiming Williamson hasn’t been getting enough calls when opponents get physical with him in the paint, Will Guillory of The Athletic tweets. Griffin blamed himself and the organization in part for not complaining enough about the way Williamson is officiated, Scott Kushner of the New Orleans Times Picayune tweets.
Griffin also said Williamson has been playing through an injury to his right thumb that would have required surgery for many other players, Guillory adds in another tweet.
Williamson played 37 minutes against Golden State on Tuesday, piling up 23 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists and four steals. The All-Star is averaging 27.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.7 APG in his second season after being taken with the No. 1 pick in 2019.
MAY 7: The Pelicans have made it official, issuing a press release to formally announce Marshall’s new contract.
MAY 6: The Pelicans have reached an agreement with rookie forward Naji Marshall on a new deal that will promote his from his two-way contract to a spot on the 15-man roster, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Sources tell Charania (Twitter link) that the deal will cover four years — the rest of this season, plus the next three. It will be fully guaranteed through 2022/23, with a non-guaranteed fourth year, Charania adds. The Pelicans will use a portion of their mid-level exception to complete the signing.
Charania pegs the value of the deal at $5.3MM, which indicates it’s a minimum-salary contract. That comes as no surprise, since today is the first day that the Pelicans were able to add a 15th man to their roster on a rest-of-season minimum deal without surpassing the luxury tax line.
Marshall, who signed a two-way contract with New Orleans in December after going undrafted out of Xavier, has emerged since the start of April as a regular rotation player for the club. For the season, he has averaged 6.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game in 26 contests (19.8 MPG). He has knocked down 37.3% of his three-point attempts.
The 23-year-old also participated in the G League bubble at Walt Disney World, recording 15.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 1.6 APG on .490/.349/.696 shooting in 12 games (26.9 MPG) for the Erie BayHawks.
Once the move is official, the Pelicans will have an open two-way contract slot, which they could fill before their season ends on May 16, if they so choose.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball tied his career best with 33 points against Golden State on Tuesday, bouncing back from a 3-for-18 shooting performance the previous game. He vowed to franchise player Zion Williamson in a text message that he wouldn’t have two bad outings in a row, according to ESPN’s Andrew Lopez. “I’m glad he’s my teammate,” Williamson said. “You love to have teammates like that can say stuff like that and come the next day and show out. He just wants to win.” Williamson’s “love” for Ball could be a factor in how aggressive the franchise is willing to be in retaining the point guard as a restricted free agent this summer.
- Didi Louzada has finally completed the work visa process and joined the Pelicans, Will Guillory of The Athletic tweets. New Orleans officially signed the draft-and-stash prospect on April 27. The Brazilian signed a multiyear contract after playing in Australia this season. He’ll be available to play on Friday, Lopez tweets.
An MRI has revealed that Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram suffered a left low-ankle sprain during the team’s 108-103 victory over the Warriors on Tuesday, the team has announced via Twitter. Ingram is set to miss Friday night’s contest against the Sixers and is considered day-to-day with the injury beyond that.
Losing Ingram, the club’s second-leading scorer behind All-Star forward Zion Williamson, could be a major blow for New Orleans as the team strives to qualify for the play-in tournament in a crowded Western Conference field. With a 30-36 record, the Pelicans currently sit just two games behind the Spurs for a shot at the play-in tournament in the West this season.
There’s more injury news from around the league:
- Bulls All-Star center Nikola Vučević (adductor) was able to fully participate in a team practice today, tweets K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. Head coach Billy Donovan commented that the sharp-shooting big man, who has missed the club’s last two games, “looked fine.”
- Lakers All-Star forward LeBron James will miss at least the next two games and potentially more as he grapples with fresh, sharp pain in his sprained ankle, Dave McMenamin told Rachel Nichols and Richard Jefferson on ESPN’s The Jump (Twitter video link). A source informed McMenamin that James is “focusing on the big picture” right now. “Does ‘big picture’ mean two more games missed? I’m not so sure,” McMenamin said. “He is clearly prioritizing using every bit of time he can to… get back for the playoffs.”
- Magic head coach Steve Clifford has indicated that five injured players could miss the rest of the 2020/21 NBA season, tweets Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel. Point guard Michael Carter-Williams and power forward Chuma Okeke are both sidelined with ankle sprains. Wing James Ennis is unavailable with a sore calf. Injury-prone forward Otto Porter Jr., who has played in just 28 games this season for the Magic and Bulls, is struggling with foot pain. Swingman Terrence Ross has been felled by back spasms. “I don’t even know what the time frame [is],” Clifford conceded. “If you look at the schedule now, it’s seven games, I think it’d be 12 days, and I’m not sure even if any of those guys are that close, to be honest with you.”