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Community Shootaround: Top Restricted Free Agents

May 29th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

This year’s free agent class could have been filled with superstars. The pool of impact players has been drained, as many of them signed extensions.

There are still some intriguing names that will hit the market this summer and many of them will be restricted free agents. Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Hamidou Diallo, Gary Trent Jr., Josh Hart and Lauri Markkanen are some of the players who could receive offer sheets.

Three other names stand out on the list of RFAs – John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen.

It’s rare that a highly productive young big like Collins would reach restricted free agency at this point in his career. Collins, 23, averaged 17.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on a playoff team and he’s a career 38% shooter from deep.

Yet the Hawks seem lukewarm, at best, on Collins as a long-term partner for franchise player Trae Young. He reportedly turned down a $90MM extension offer, believing he could get a max deal, or something very close to it, in free agency.

Atlanta need only to extend a $7.7MM qualifying offer in order to make him a restricted free agent, giving the team the option of matching an offer sheet.

Collins has the opportunity to enhance his resume with a strong playoff showing. He contributed a ho-hum 12 points and seven rebounds to Atlanta’s Game 1 win on Sunday but counterpart Julius Randle shot just 6-for-23 from the field. Collins’ second postseason game was a disaster, as he went scoreless in 12, foul-filled minutes.

He contributed 14 points and six rebounds in Game 3 on Friday but, more importantly, helped to hold Randle to a 2-for-15 shooting night.

Ball’s qualifying offer is $14.36MM, so New Orleans has a tougher decision to make. Ball has long been rumored to be a primary target for the Bulls, who are seeking a natural point guard.

Ball’s name was bandied about in trade rumors this winter and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Pelicans choose to make him unrestricted. That would leave open the possibility of a sign-and-trade, rather than getting nothing if they decline to match an offer sheet.

However, it’s probably a safe assumption that Pelicans will extend the QO and see if Ball’s offers fall into their price range.

In contrast, the Cavaliers acquired Allen as part of the multi-team James Harden blockbuster with the intent of re-signing him. Allen, whose QO is $7.7MM, averaged 13.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG and 1.4 BPG after joining Cleveland.

Allen didn’t exactly turn around the Cavaliers’ fortunes but they seem committed to retaining the 23-year-old center. So if another team covets Allen, it will have to make a substantial offer to force the Cavs to think twice about matching.

That leads us to our question of the day: Among John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen, which restricted free agent will receive the biggest offer this summer?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Southwest Notes: Alexander-Walker, KP, Adams, Mavs

May 27th, 2021 at 9:56pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Pelicans combo guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker found ways to improve during his second NBA season, writes Christian Clark of NOLA.com. Clark highlights Alexander-Walker’s growth as a ball-handler. The 22-year-old, who may play for Team Canada this summer, averaged an encouraging 19.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 3.0 APG across the 13 games he started.

Alexander-Walker indicated that extended reps at the NBA level have yielded his growth with the Pelicans. “You start to catch onto things,” he said. “You start to read things and understand what buttons control different things.”

There’s more out of the Southwest Division:

  • Mavericks center Kristaps Porzingis told reporters that the behavior that violated COVID-19 protocols and yielded a $50K league fine was a result of his not understanding the NBA’s stringent new rules as more businesses open across the country during the pandemic, tweets Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News. “I was honestly a little bit confused (about the protocols), but I made a mistake and I paid for it,” Porzingis said. The Dallas big man, who is vaccinated, visited an indoor L.A.-area club.
  • In trading for and subsequently extending center Steven Adams, the Pelicans were hoping to establish an intense interior presence with their new frontcourt tandem of Adams and All-Star power forward Zion Williamson, writes Christian Clark of NOLA.com. That approach did not even yield a top-10 finish in the West this season, prompting Clark to wonder if New Orleans head of basketball operations David Griffin will attempt to move on from Adams.
  • Though the Mavericks won both the first two games of their first-round matchup against the Clippers on the road, the team is looking to improve from a lackluster free-throw shooting performance, writes Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News. “It’s an area where we can gain ground,” head coach Rick Carlisle said. The Mavericks connected on just 66% of their foul shots during the first two games of the series, down from 77.8% during the regular season. Swingman Tim Hardaway Jr., an unrestricted free agent this summer whom Dallas hopes to retain, has shot just 4-of-8 from the charity stripe.
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Scotto’s Latest: Oubre, Bazemore, Wiseman, Ball, Spurs

May 27th, 2021 at 3:06pm CST by Luke Adams

The Warriors have interest in bringing back free agent wings Kelly Oubre and Kent Bazemore, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. However, it sounds like neither player will be as affordable on his next contract as he was on his previous deal.

Appearing on the HoopsHype podcast alongside Yossi Gozlan, Scotto said he has gotten the sense from a league source that Oubre and his camp believe they can get a long-term contract worth at least $20MM annually, which may be higher than the Warriors are willing to go. As for Bazemore, Scotto didn’t specify an asking price, but said the goal for the veteran forward is to get a multiyear deal — ideally one that covers three years rather than two.

The Warriors have Oubre’s full Bird rights, but only hold Non-Bird rights on Bazemore, so their ability to offer him a raise on his minimum-salary contract will be limited.

Here’s more from Scotto, including another note on the Warriors:

  • Although the Warriors won’t be actively looking to move James Wiseman, they’d be open to listening to inquiries on the big man if an All-Star caliber player is available, a league source tells Scotto.
  • There’s a belief that Lonzo Ball will be able to get around $20MM per year in restricted free agency, though it’s unclear if the Pelicans are prepared to go that high, says Scotto, adding that rumors of the Bulls’ interest in the former No. 2 overall pick seem to “have some legs.”
  • Re-signing RFAs-to-be Ball and Josh Hart would almost certainly take the Pelicans into luxury tax territory, so Scotto expects Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams to be names that come up in trade rumors this offseason. Bledsoe will earn $18.1MM in 2021/22, while Adams will make $17.1MM.
  • Scotto says he has heard from an executive or two around the NBA that Spurs assistant Will Hardy is viewed as a legit candidate to be Gregg Popovich‘s eventual replacement as San Antonio’s head coach. Hardy received consideration from multiple teams that sought a head coach in 2020.
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14 NBA Players On Canada’s Preliminary Olympic Qualifying Roster

May 27th, 2021 at 12:54pm CST by Luke Adams

Team Canada has yet to secure a place in the men’s basketball event at the Tokyo Olympics, but the club should have a loaded roster as it looks to lock up a spot in a qualifying tournament next month.

Canada Basketball issued a press release today announcing its 21-player preliminary roster for the Olympic qualifier, and the group includes 14 players who finished the season on NBA contracts. Here’s the full list:

Of the seven players who didn’t play in the NBA this season, one (Bennett) is a former first overall pick, another (Nicholson) was also a first-round selection, and a third (Alexander) has NBA experience. Bell-Haynes has played in the G League, while Doornekamp, Ejim, and Nembhard all have extensive experience representing Canada in past international competitions.

Still, a few noteworthy names are missing from the list. Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is recovering from a torn ACL and won’t be able to participate. Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also dealing with an injury, announcing on Instagram that rehabbing the plantar fasciitis in his right foot will prevent him from representing Team Canada.

Raptors big man Chris Boucher is a third notable omission. According to Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link), Boucher is focused on rehabbing a knee sprain and wants to make sure he’s 100% healthy heading into 2021/22. He also has a somewhat uncertain contract situation — his $7MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed, though I’d be shocked if he’s not retained.

Even without Murray, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Boucher, Canada Basketball is in position to run out a roster stacked with NBA talent and led by former NBA Coach of the Year Nick Nurse.

While the final roster will depend in part on which players are available, none of the 21 players on the preliminary are on teams expected to still be alive for the conference finals. However, a club like Powell’s Mavericks or Barrett’s Knicks could surprise.

Team Canada will compete against Greece, China, Uruguay, Turkey, and the Czech Republic in a qualifying tournament in Victoria, British Columbia between June 29 and July 4. If the club wins that six-team qualifier, it will be part of the 12-team field in Tokyo and would be a legit contender for a medal.

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2021 NBA Draft Tiebreaker Results

May 25th, 2021 at 1:11pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.

The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
  • Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
    • Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
  • Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
  • New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
  • New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
    • Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
  • Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).

Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.

However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.

Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.

The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.

The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.

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Corey Brewer Discusses Experience As Pelicans Assistant

May 25th, 2021 at 10:40am CST by Luke Adams
  • Former NBA wing Corey Brewer, who joined the Pelicans as a player development coach last fall, wrote for BasketballNews.com about transitioning from playing to coaching and what he learned in his first year in the new role. Brewer also shared some thoughts on several of New Orleans’ young players.
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And-Ones: G League, Olympics, NBA Africa, COVID-19

May 24th, 2021 at 12:47pm CST by Luke Adams

As the league mulls the possibility of a midseason tournament at the NBA level, G League officials are making progress toward finalizing an in-season tournament of their own for the 2021/22 season, sources tell Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report.

According to Fischer, the plan is for the G League’s tournament to be an enhanced version of the event that took place at the league’s annual showcase in 2019. Teams would play a series of 12 or 14 round-robin games leading up to the showcase, then the top four teams would compete in a prize-money tournament at the showcase, while the rest of the NBAGL’s clubs participate in the annual event as usual.

The G League is still working to finalize the format and the reward of its potential fall/winter tournament, which would be labeled as some type of “Cup,” sources tell Fischer.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Team USA officials aren’t counting on any players who participate in the NBA Finals – or even the conference finals – to be available for the Tokyo Olympics this summer, writes Joe Vardon of The Athletic. That means getting commitments from certain players whose teams didn’t make the postseason will be a priority for the program, according to Vardon, who points to Warriors guard Stephen Curry and Pelicans forward Zion Williamson as two top targets for USA Basketball.
  • The NBA has announced the formation of NBA Africa, a new business investment entity that will oversee the league’s business endeavors in Africa, writes Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated. Former NBA stars such as Dikembe Mutombo and Grant Hill are among the investors, as the league tries to expand its presence in key African markets.
  • While the worst of COVID-19’s impact on the NBA may be in the rear view, the league isn’t taking anything for granted during its non-bubble postseason, writes Marc Stein of The New York Times. “We’re optimistic that what we’ve been doing will work, but we certainly can’t relax because it’s the playoffs,” said David Weiss, the NBA’s senior VP of player matters. “We have to emphasize that it’s important to keep following the protocols and getting vaccinated.”
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Pelicans Notes: Hernangomez, Van Gundy, 3-Point Shooting

May 22nd, 2021 at 3:57pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Pelicans executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin would like to re-sign reserve center and unrestricted free agent Willy Hernangomez after the Summer Olympics, Christian Clark of NOLA.com reports. Hernangomez is a member of the Spanish national team.

“Willy is going to play meaningful basketball games,” Griffin said. “He’s going to go there, and even though we can’t sign him officially necessarily before he leaves for Spain, he’s going to go there identifying himself as a Pelican, and that’s important for us.”

Hernangomez started nine of New Orleans’ final 10 games and averaged 12.3 PPG and 10.4 RPG.

We have more on the Pelicans:

  • There was tension at times between coach Stan Van Gundy and his players during the season, Scott Kushner of NOLA.com reports. However, Van Gundy was thrust into the role of ‘bad guy’ who held players accountable, since the team’s young stars didn’t do that. It’s crucial that accountability shifts from Van Gundy to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram in order for the defense and late-game execution to improve, Kushner adds.
  • The team sank to the bottom five in the league in 3-point shooting this season and Griffin said he’ll upgrade the roster in that area, Clark writes in a separate story. With extra first-round picks at his disposal, Griffin has the assets to trade for a perimeter threat or two. He could even deal this year’s lottery pick for proven talent, Clark adds. “We’re in a situation where there is a world of optionality to us,” Griffin said. “The pick assets we have give us incredible flexibility.”
  • Why could Tuesday turn out to be a pivotal day for the Pelicans organization? Get the details here.
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Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

May 21st, 2021 at 7:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southwest Division:

DeMar DeRozan, Spurs, 31, SG/SF (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $139MM deal in 2016

DeRozan threw in a clunker in San Antonio’s play-in game against Memphis, shooting 5-for-21 from the field. The master of the mid-range game now enters unrestricted free agency in a league that craves 3-point shooters at the wing.

DeRozan does more than just knock down 18-footers. He’s got a knack for drawing fouls and this season he averaged a career-high 6.9 assists. What will that package of skills draw on the open market? We’ll find out if DeRozan doesn’t reach an extension agreement with San Antonio. The Spurs have an exclusive window to reach a new deal with DeRozan before free agency begins at the start of August.

Lonzo Ball, Pelicans, 23, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $33.5MM deal in 2017

Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram said glowing things about Ball in their post-season press conferences. Ball said he would “love” to remain in New Orleans. Now, the proverbial ball is in the front office’s court.

Will the Pelicans extend a $14.36MM qualifying offer to Ball to make him a restricted free agent? If so, will they match any offer sheet? Should the Pelicans do so, they’re basically telling everyone they believe the trio of Williamson, Ingram and Ball is a championship-caliber core. That’s a pretty big leap of faith, considering the Pelicans went 31-41 this season with each of them playing at least 55 games. But Ball’s going to get paid this summer, one way or another.

Josh Richardson, Mavericks, 27, SF/SG (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2018

Richardson was acquired from the Sixers in a draft-night deal to upgrade their perimeter defense. According to the numbers, Richardson hasn’t made much of an impact in that area. He ranked 22nd among shooting guards on ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus ratings. Richardson’s offensive rating was even lower after averaging 12.1 PPG on 42.7% shooting (33% on threes) despite playing with a premier play-maker.

Richardson holds an $11.6MM option on his contract for next season. Perhaps he’ll seek for a multi-year deal on the open market but it may be prudent for him to take the guaranteed money and test the waters next summer.

Kelly Olynyk, Rockets, 30, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $50MM deal in 2017

Anyone want a stretch four who averages 19 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.1 APG and 1.4 SPG? Those are the stats Olynyk posted in a 27-game stint with the tanking Rockets. Those numbers can be taken with a grain of salt – Olynyk didn’t suddenly turn into an All-Star level talent at 30 years old. He did show that he can still be a highly productive rotation player. For obvious reasons, Olynyk enjoyed his stint in Houston and that will factor into his decision as he heads into unrestricted free agency. If nothing else, he gained more leverage over the past two months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Latest On NBA’s Lottery Standings, Draft Order

May 21st, 2021 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.

With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…

Lottery standings

Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.

A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).

The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.

Draft order

Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.

The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.

If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.

Notable traded second-round picks

On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:

The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.

The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.

Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.

The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.

The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).

Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).

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