- Pelicans star forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are continuing to figure out how to collaborate in late-game scenarios, per Scott Kushner of NOLA.com. “We’re going to get in the lab, individually and as a team, and prepare for a different outcome,” Williamson said following a recent late-game defeat.
We’re over a third away into the NBA’s 2020/21 regular season, and while the standings will surely fluctuate significantly between now and the end of the season in May, we’re starting to get a sense of which teams will be competitive and which teams probably won’t be.
As a picture begins to form of which teams will be vying for top seeds in each conference and which might be battling for lottery odds, it’s worth checking in on the traded first-round picks for 2021. Of next year’s 30 first-round selections, as many as 13 could technically change hands, via trades or swaps. This year’s standings will dictate where those picks land and whether or not some of them change hands at all.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here’s an early look at which of those traded picks are most and least likely to change hands, and which ones are still very much up in the air:
Unprotected picks that will definitely change hands:
- Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick.
- Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick.
There’s no mystery here about whether or not these picks will be conveyed in 2021, since both are unprotected. It looks like the Knicks will make out much better than the Pelicans, given how well the Lakers have played and how much the Mavericks has struggled. As of today, Dallas’ pick projects to fall in the lottery, at No. 13 (depending on play-in results), while L.A.’s first-rounder would be No. 29.
Protected picks that almost certainly won’t change hands:
- Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection).
- Rockets acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
The Jazz currently have the NBA’s best record, while the Pistons hold the league’s second-worst record. That means Utah’s pick will be at the end of the first round (currently No. 30) and comfortably fall within its 15-30 protection, while Detroit’s pick will absolutely be in the lottery (currently No. 2) and won’t be sent to Houston. It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which this outlook changes in the coming months.
The Grizzlies can at least count on getting Utah’s first-rounder in 2022, when it will become top-six protected. It may be a while before the Rockets get a pick from Detroit though — that first-rounder remains heavily protected in 2022 (top-16), 2023 (top-18), and 2024 (top-18) before those protections start to loosen a little.
It’s also worth mentioning here that the Knicks have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Clippers this season, but are very unlikely to pass L.A. in the standings and be in position to exercise that option. New York’s first-rounder currently projects to be No. 17, while the Clippers’ would be No. 28.
Still up in the air:
- Warriors acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick (top-three protected).
- Thunder acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected).
The Timberwolves have the NBA’s worst record, which theoretically puts them in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. However, the league’s lottery format means that even if Minnesota finishes at the bottom of the NBA standings, there’s still only about a 40% chance they’ll end up in the top three and keep that first-rounder, with a 60% chance of it going to the Warriors. The fate of that pick figures to remain up in the air right up until lottery night.
We have a better chance at getting clarity on the fate of Golden State’s first-rounder before the end of the season, but at the moment, it could still easily go either way. The Warriors’ 15-13 record would give the team the No. 20 overall pick if the season ended today, allowing them to keep their pick rather than sending it to the Thunder. But that could change quickly — there are currently 11 teams within two games of Golden State in the NBA standings, on one side or the other.
Analyzing the Rockets/Thunder/Heat/Blazers/Nets situation:
Six teams’ draft picks are tied up in a series of convoluted trades and swaps that are nearly impossible to explain clearly and concisely. Fortunately, one of those teams is the Pistons, whose pick will be protected this year, removing them from the equation.
That still leaves five teams in this complex arrangement, however. We did our best in an earlier story to explain how this situation will work. It essentially breaks down like this:
- The Thunder will have the right to swap either their first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick for the Rockets‘ first-round pick, but only if Houston’s pick doesn’t fall in the top four. In other words, if Houston gets a top-four pick, the Rockets will keep their own first-rounder; if not, the Thunder will get the two most favorable picks of their own, the Heat’s, and the Rockets’, and Houston will get the least favorable.
- Once the first step is complete, the Rockets will be left with at least one first-round pick, and likely two, since they’re also owed the Trail Blazers‘ first-rounder (top-14 protected). They would then have the right to swap either of those picks with the Nets‘ first-rounder (unprotected).
If the season ended today, the Heat, Thunder, and Rockets would – believe it or not – all be tied in the standings with matching 11-16 records. A random tiebreaker would determine where those first-rounders land in the 6-to-9 range (since Atlanta also has a 11-16 record), assuming no lottery movement, then the Thunder would claim the two most favorable picks (no worse than No. 7 and No. 8), while the Rockets would get the least favorable pick (either No. 8 or No. 9).
The Rockets would also receive the Trail Blazers’ first-rounder (either No. 25 or No. 26), and would subsequently swap it with the Nets’ pick (No. 24), leaving Brooklyn with that Portland pick.
I’d expect this situation to continue to evolve considerably over the course of the season, but for now it looks pretty favorable for both the Thunder and the Rockets.
- Following a four-game winning streak, the Pelicans have now dropped three consecutive contests, all to sub-.500 teams. The slump has head coach Stan Van Gundy considering changes to the team’s rotation, per Christian Clark of NOLA.com. “I think now we have to take a look at who we’re playing and how many minutes and what rotations and figure out if there is a way that we can play better defense,” Van Gundy said. “But, I’m being honest with you, I don’t know how many of our guys really have a defensive mentality.”
Before they signed veteran swingman Iman Shumpert in an effort to improve their wing defense, the Nets considered longtime Thunder forward Andre Roberson, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic. According to Brian Lewis of The New York Post (Twitter link), the Nets’ interest in Roberson wasn’t just cursory — the team actually worked him out before signing Shumpert.
Roberson, who is limited on offense but has a reputation as a defensive stopper, returned last August during the NBA’s summer restart after having missed over two full years due to knee issues. However, his contract expired at season’s end and he has yet to catch on with a new NBA team. Given how many of Brooklyn’s end-of-roster players have non-guaranteed salaries, it’s possible the Nets could open up a spot and circle back to Roberson later in the season, as Lewis notes.
Here’s more from Charania:
- The Raptors and Nets – who were both mentioned by Charania as possible Andre Drummond suitors via trade or buyout – are viewed as two teams in the market for frontcourt help. Charania suggests the Mavericks, Lakers, and Trail Blazers are among the clubs likely to join that list.
- Charania confirms that the Bulls have some interest in Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball, but says the two teams haven’t engaged in any dialogue about a possible trade.
- Rival teams are keeping an eye on Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons, according to Charania. There’s no indication Portland has interest in moving Simons, but other clubs may envision a larger scoring and play-making role for him than he has in Portland, where he backs up an All-NBA point guard.
- Veteran big man Kenneth Faried, 31, is working out in Los Angeles and hopes to make an NBA comeback, per Charania.
Even before his recent right foot injury, new Rockets shooting guard Victor Oladipo has been wrestling with his productivity this season, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic.
The sore right foot, meanwhile has hampered his mobility of late and may keep him unavailable during the Rockets’ upcoming road trip. At a high 31.8 usage rate, Oladipo is shooting just 38.6% from the floor and 29.9% from long range through his first 11 games in Houston.
“Victor’s gonna get there,” Rockets head coach Stephen Silas said, going on to highlight Oladipo’s contributions on the other side of the ball. “Hopefully, his injury isn’t too bad. He is a big part of what we do, and one of the of the reasons we’re top five defensively is because of Victor Oladipo.”
There’s more out of the Southwest:
- Whilst on the NBAGL Orlando “bubble” campus, two-way Mavericks rookie shooting guard Nate Hinton has been recalled from the Long Island Nets and transferred to the Santa Cruz Warriors, according to a team tweet. Dallas’ own affiliate, the Texas Legends, isn’t active this season.
- The Pelicans‘ offense has benefited from second-year forward Zion Williamson being utilized at the point, according to Christian Clark of NOLA.com. Williamson has frequently been starting the team’s offensive actions during the last five games. “That’s how I grew up playing the game,” Williamson said. “When I’m bringing it up, I take a quick snapshot of the court. I know where all my teammates are and I know where all my teammates are going to be.”
- Defensive-oriented 35-year-old Rockets iron man forward P.J. Tucker has yet to miss a game since joining Houston in 2017. writes Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. This season, Tucker and rookie forward Jae’Sean Tate are the only Rockets to have not missed any of Houston’s 26 games this season.
- Christian Clark of NOLA.com examines how Pelicans rookie Kira Lewis Jr. is hurting opposing teams with his unique speed. Lewis, whose mother was also a college sprinter, is recognized as one of the quickest guards in the league. He was the No. 13 overall pick in the draft last year. “When I come in, I’m looking to push the pace, get into the paint, make the defense collapse and just make the right read,” Lewis said.
Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southwest Division:
Lonzo Ball, Pelicans, 23, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $33.5MM deal in 2017
Ball’s status has been a hot topic around the league. He’s a prime trade candidate as New Orleans ponders whether it wants to commit long-term to the second overall pick of the 2017 draft. The Pelicans would have to extend a $14.36MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent if they don’t deal him.
On the plus side, Ball’s recent play has pumped up his value. Prior to his quiet 12-point performance on Friday, he was averaging 17.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG and 4.3 APG in February while making 51.2% of his 3-point tries. Moreover, he’s kept his turnovers down. The Bulls have been linked to Ball for weeks and perhaps his recent play will convince them he’s the answer to their point guard conundrum.
Trey Lyles, Spurs, 25, PF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $11MM deal in 2019
Lyles has been a disappointment since the Jazz made him a lottery pick in 2015. This season has been particularly trying for the Kentucky product. After starting regularly last season, Lyles has only seen spot duty in his walk year. With LaMarcus Aldridge out, Lyles scored a season-high 15 points in a blowout loss to Golden State on Tuesday. That was his first double-digit output this season, as he’s only averaging 12.0 MPG. Lyles doesn’t stand out in any one area and he’ll be looking at modest offers this summer.
Tim Hardaway Jr., Mavericks, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $70.95MM deal in 2017
The Mavericks have been a disappointment but Hardaway has fulfilled his role, averaging 17.2 PPG in 31.1 MPG. He’s turned into a consistent 40% shooter from long range and that skill will serve him well as he enters unrestricted free agency. It will be interesting to see how much teams value Hardaway’s overall game and if he can get similar money to what the Knicks offered him as a restricted free agent in 2017. But it’s a shooter’s league and Hardaway is a proven starting wing. At 28, he’ll likely receive some quality multi-year offers.
DeMarcus Cousins, Rockets, 30, C (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2.33MM deal in 2020
The former perennial All-Star signed a veteran’s minimum deal with Houston to try to rebuild his value. He’ll get ample playing time in the next few weeks with Christian Wood sidelined by an ankle sprain. However, knee and Achilles injuries have robbed Cousins of his explosion. He can still occasionally post some big numbers (28 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists vs. Dallas last month) but he can’t deliver those big stat lines on a consistent basis. He can do better than veteran minimum deals in the future, barring another major injury, but he’s not the force he was early in his career with the Kings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- After starting the NBA season by allowing 800 fans inside their home arena, the Smoothie King Center, the Pelicans bumped that total up to 1,440 on January 29. They will be increasing their fan capacity again starting next week, to 1,900 fans, starting February 17 against the Trail Blazers, according to Christian Clark of NOLA.com.
Having started his 21st game of the season on Wednesday night, Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball has now met the “starter criteria,” which will have a significant impact on the value of his qualifying offer this offseason.
The starter criteria applies to players who will be eligible for restricted free agency at season’s end. Typically, a player is required to average 41 starts during the two seasons prior to his free agency to meet the criteria, but that threshold has been adjusted and varies from player to player this year, since each of the last two NBA seasons have been shortened.
In Ball’s case, the Pelicans played 64 games prior to the hiatus last season and will play 72 this season, for a total of 136. He needed to start half of them (34 per year, or 68 in total) to meet the starter criteria. After starting 47 of those pre-hiatus contests a year ago, he now has 21 starts this season.
In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend him a qualifying offer, which is essentially a guaranteed one-year contract offer that gives the team the right of first refusal on a rival offer sheet. Meeting the starter criteria makes a player eligible for a larger qualifying offer than he would have been if he’d fallen short of that criteria.
That difference is especially important for Ball, whose qualifying offer would only have been worth about $7MM if he hadn’t reached the starter criteria. Now, his QO – assuming he receives one – will be worth $14.36MM.
Ball has been the subject of some recent trade rumors, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll still be a Pelican when he reaches free agency later this year. However, he has played some of his best basketball as of late, averaging 17.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 4.8 APG on .476/.484/.909 shooting in his last eight games. If he continues to produce at that level, his team at season’s end – whether it’s New Orleans or another franchise – likely won’t bat an eye at issuing that $14MM+ QO.
Ball is the third RFA-to-be to meet the starter criteria this season, joining Devonte’ Graham and Duncan Robinson.
While it may be tempting to continue revamping their roster around cornerstone players Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans have now won six of eight games and no longer look like a team on the verge of a fire sale, writes Scott Kushner of NOLA.com.
“I said to guys when all that was going on that it’s natural,” Pelicans head coach Stan Van Gundy said. “You’re losing games so people are going to say, ‘Oh shoot, they’re going to blow it up.’ And the rumors are going to start. If we were winning then, like we have in the last seven, then the rumors go away. Because people will think you are happy with your team.”
Multiple reports in late January indicated that the Pelicans were exploring the possibility of moving Lonzo Ball, J.J. Redick, and/or Eric Bledsoe. Those rumors have died down as of late, though that doesn’t mean those players are off the trade block, as Kushner notes. This season’s trade deadline is still six weeks away, so there’s plenty of time for New Orleans to consider whether dealing one or more of those veteran guards makes sense.
- The Pelicans have transferred two-way player Naji Marshall to the Erie BayHawks, the team announced today (via Twitter). Marshall will join fellow two-way player Will Magnay on New Orleans’ G League squad.