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Five Western FAs-To-Be Who Boosted Their Value In 2019/20

April 9th, 2020 at 3:40pm CST by Luke Adams

On Wednesday, we examined five 2020 free agents in the Eastern Conference who had impressive contract years, increasing their value right before they reach the open market. Today, we’re shifting our focus to the Western Conference, where there are many more than five candidates for this list.

Kings swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clippers big man Montrezl Harrell, and Suns center Aron Baynes are among the players who had strong 2019/20 seasons and established themselves as desirable free agent targets. But we’re focusing on five different players in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Brandon Ingram, F (Pelicans) (RFA): Most of the players who would have been 2020’s top restricted free agents signed contract extensions last fall. It made sense that Ingram – who had yet to play a game for the Pelicans and whose 2018/19 season ended due to a blood clot issue – didn’t get one, but his play in ’19/20 showed that New Orleans would have been wise to take the risk. After averaging 24.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 4.3 APG (all career highs) and emerging as an All-Star, Ingram may now require a maximum-salary investment once his rookie contract expires.
Dwight Howard, C (Lakers): Not only did Howard receive a minimum-salary contract from the Lakers last summer — the deal wasn’t even guaranteed. Although many NBA observers were ready to write off the eight-time All-NBA center a year ago, he has shown that he’s still got something left in the tank, averaging 7.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 1.2 BPG in a part-time role (19.2 MPG) for the Lakers. Most crucially, he was willing to accept a career-low usage rate (14.2%) and remained healthy all season long, appearing in 62 of L.A.’s 63 games. It seems safe to assume his next contract will be guaranteed — it should be worth more than the minimum too.
Jordan Clarkson, SG (Jazz): After making just 32.4% of his three-point attempts in 2018/19, Clarkson entered the season looking to shake a reputation as a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer who didn’t bring a whole lot else to the table. A move to Utah gave him the opportunity to do so, and he emerged as a key weapon off the bench for the Jazz, averaging 15.6 PPG on 48.2% shooting in 34 games (25.3 MPG) following his trade out of Cleveland. Clarkson may not get a raise on the $13MM+ salary he’s earning this season, but after making a case for Sixth Man of the Year, he should still do pretty well on his next deal.
Malik Beasley, SG (Timberwolves) (RFA): Unlike Clarkson, whose stock rose when he got the opportunity to play important minutes for a playoff team, Beasley boosted his value when he was dealt from the Nuggets to the lottery-bound Timberwolves. Having been in and out of Denver’s rotation all season long, Beasley started all 14 games he played for Minnesota and fully took advantage of his regular role (33.1 MPG), averaging 20.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG with an impressive .472/.426/.750 shooting line. Beasley reportedly turned down a three-year extension worth more than $30MM last offseason, and while it seemed for much of the season like that may have been a mistake, he could now be in line for an even bigger payday with the Wolves.
De’Anthony Melton, G (Grizzlies) (RFA): Melton’s basic stats – 8.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.0 APG, and .419/.316/.821 shooting – aren’t major improvements on the numbers he put up as a rookie in Phoenix. However, in his first season, he was thrust into a starting role for the bottom-feeding team Suns because they had few alternatives. In Memphis, Melton earned rotation minutes for a playoff contender. He was arguably the Grizzlies’ best perimeter defender, and his on/off-court splits reflected his value — the club had a +6.2 net rating when he played, compared to a -4.2 rating when he sat. A minimum-salary bargain this season, Melton is due a raise in restricted free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Lonzo Ball Parts Ways With CAA

March 26th, 2020 at 1:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball has parted ways with Creative Artists Agency, a source tells Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. Melissa Rohlin of SI.com had reported earlier in the month that Ball was leaving CAA.

Ball originally cut ties with agent Harrison Gaines and joined CAA in April 2019, so he ended up spending less than a year with the agency. It’s not clear why he has opted for another change — it’s possible that the departure of veteran CAA agent Leon Rose for a role with the Knicks played a part in Ball’s decision, though the Pelicans guard was reportedly represented by Steven Heumann and Aaron Mintz.

David Griffin Talks NBA Shutdown, Zion Williamson, More

March 22nd, 2020 at 5:42pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The NBA continues to be in wait-and-see mode with the coronavirus pandemic forcing the league to halt operations. Pelicans VP of basketball operations David Griffin joined the club’s local broadcast team to talk about the suspended season as well as share some insight about the on-court product in New Orleans, as the team relays on its website.

Griffin said he hopes that the league resumes soon but wouldn’t speculate on a definite timeline, as it’s impossible to accurately predict when the virus will be contained.

“With everything changing so quickly, everything is in a state of flux that I think it would be premature for the NBA to say what it ultimately looks like,” Griffin said. “I do know unequivocally that the league is very mindful of the idea of getting back to playing.

“The idea of canceling a season is not all on their minds, and we’re modeling every possible thing we can for how we can deliver a product to the fans. Quite frankly, we’re all going to need a diversion in the future. (But) until we can get to a point where we think we’ve got containment of (the coronavirus), we’re going to continue to stay locked down. Hopefully we’ll get to a point where we can come back sooner rather than later.”

During the 30-minute segment, Griffin also discussed the Pelicans’ roster, including the fit of Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball.

“A big part of it is the chemistry you see with Lonzo and Zion. They have a special connection,” Griffin said, while adding that Nicolo Melli has also proven to be a good on-court mate to Williamson.

“I think Nicolo Melli getting more minutes, and him starting to become a key part of the rotation has been essential as well,” the executive added. “Those three guys work incredibly well as a unit. Zion gives us another player who can create vertical thrust in the offense, and Lonzo can pick defenses apart with his passing.”

Pelicans Ready To Match Any Offer To Brandon Ingram

March 21st, 2020 at 10:03pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Pelicans plan to match any offer for restricted free agent Brandon Ingram, multiple sources tell Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. He shares that item as part of a response to a reader’s question on whether the Cavaliers will try to clear cap room for the offseason.

Ingram, who is coming off his first All-Star appearance, is a strong candidate for Most Improved Player. His scoring average has risen from 18.3 to 24.3 PPG and his numbers are up virtually across the board. He also seems to have overcome the Deep Venous Thrombosis issue that forced him to have season-ending surgery last March.

Health concerns factored into the Pelicans’ decision to not give Ingram a rookie scale extension in October, but he has proven his value in his first season in New Orleans. He will be among the top names this offseason in a relatively weak free agent class and should attract plenty of attention from the few teams with cap space.

Coronavirus Update: Griffin, Smart, Greece, Olympics

March 21st, 2020 at 8:47pm CST by Arthur Hill

Although the coronavirus continues to spread through the league, the NBA hasn’t given any thought to canceling its season, according to Pelicans executive vice president David Griffin (Twitter link from Will Guillory of The Athletic). Griffin made the comment tonight on the team’s Twitter feed during a rebroadcast of a game from earlier this season.

The number of NBA players testing positive for the virus grew from two to 10 over the past week. Three members of the Sixers organization and a member of the Nuggets organization have also tested positive.

Griffin’s comment meshes with a statement by NBA commissioner Adam Silver earlier this week that he remains optimistic that the season will be concluded in some form.

There’s more basketball-related coronavirus news:

Celtics guard Marcus Smart, one of the players who tested positive, appeared on CNN yesterday to urge people to take the virus seriously, writes Ryan Young of Yahoo Sports. Smart said he and his teammates were tested after returning from their last road trip and they have all remained quarantined. “Be alert to what’s going on and take the precautions to not only protect yourself,” he said. “By protecting yourself, you protect others.”
Panathinaikos is allowing American players to return home because of the virus outbreak in Greece, according to Ennio Terrasi Borghesan of Sportando. Jimmer Fredette, the most recognizable name on the roster, came back to the United States several days ago. Former NBA forward Wesley Johnson is also part of the team.
USA Track and Field is calling for the Summer Olympics to be postponed because of the pandemic, reports CNN. “Unfortunately, while our world class athletes are willing to push themselves to their athletic limits in pursuit of Olympic success, the likelihood that they will be able to properly train in a safe and adequate environment, and replicate the excellence we have all come to expect, does not appear likely in the midst of this global crisis,” USATF chief executive Max Siegel wrote. “As we have learned our athletes are under tremendous pressure, stress and anxiety, and their mental health and wellness is among our highest priorities.”

Pelicans Have Options For 2020 Offseason

March 20th, 2020 at 2:02pm CST by Luke Adams

A number of people within the Pelicans‘ organization believe New Orleans would have been a guaranteed playoff team in 2019/20 if Zion Williamson had been healthy all season, writes Will Guillory of The Athletic. As such, it’ll be fascinating to see how the club approaches potential roster changes during the coming offseason.

As Guillory notes, given the strides made by Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball, the Pelicans could be in position to become a legit contender in the West in 2020/21, but it remains to be seen if head of basketball operations David Griffin is ready to get aggressive and go all-in.

Of the Pelicans’ key veterans, Derrick Favors will be a free agent, while Jrue Holiday and J.J. Redick will be entering contract years, so running it back with those players is one option, but the club will have flexibility to make more substantial changes to its roster, as Guillory writes.

Where Traded Draft Picks Would Land If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 9:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.

Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.

With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.

First round:

Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
- Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
- Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
- Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
New York Knicks (from Clippers)
Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)

Notes:

The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.

Second round:

Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
New York Knicks (from Hornets)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
Boston Celtics (from Nets)
Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)

Notes:

The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.

What 2020 Lottery Odds Would Look Like If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 1:33pm CST by Luke Adams

While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.

It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.

Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.

With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.

For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
WSH	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
PHX	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	18.9	1.2	>0	>0
SAS	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
SAC*	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	7.6	0.1
NOP*	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.0	2.3
POR	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.

Australia’s NBL Cancels Remaining Championship Games

March 17th, 2020 at 8:47am CST by Luke Adams

Australia’s National Basketball League has announced in a press release that it has decided to cancel the remaining games of the Grand Final series between the Sydney Kings and Perth Wildcats. The NBL’s Grand Final series is the league’s equivalent of the NBA Finals.

The Wildcats had a 2-1 edge in the best-of-five championship series, with Game 4 scheduled to take place on Friday at RAC Arena in Perth. The league had initially planned on playing games that were closed to the public. However, Kings management indicated on Tuesday that it wasn’t comfortable with continuing the series at all, given the worldwide coronavirus outbreak that has resulted in nearly every other major basketball league shutting down.

“We respect the decision in what are extraordinary times for everyone,” NBL owner and executive chairman Larry Kestelman said in a statement. “We are understanding of not just the players’ health and well being but also their desire to be with their families, especially given so many of them have family overseas. Having consulted with the Australian Basketball Players’ Association we have decided the remaining games shall not be played.”

Although the NBL’s announcement stated that the series will be canceled, rather than postponed, the league has yet to say which team will be crowned the champion for the 2019/20 season. Kestelman suggested the NBL will weigh that decision over the next 48 hours.

“We acknowledge both teams for what has been a fantastic series and season,” he said. “Sydney was the only team to have gone through an entire NBL season on top of the ladder and Perth was leading the Grand Final series.”

Sydney’s roster features former No. 1 overall pick Andrew Bogut and Pelicans draft-and-stash prospect Didi Louzada, while former NBA big man Miles Plumlee plays for Perth. It’s possible that veterans like Bogut and Plumlee – and other NBL players – will be available to NBA teams if and when the 2019/20 season resumes, assuming they’re on expiring contracts in Australia.

Hiatus Notes: TV Revenue, Benson, Storylines, Clippers

March 16th, 2020 at 6:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The NBA hopes to play at least 70 regular-season games this season in order to retain 100% of the revenue the league receives from their regional sports network partners, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst (hat tip to RealGM). Those networks broadcast games in local markets. An abbreviated resumption of the regular season would also serve as a way for teams to ramp back up before the playoffs begin, Windhorst adds.

We have more developments related to the league’s hiatus:

Pelicans owner Gayle Benson has pledged to give $1MM to various causes, including financial assistance to arena workers displaced by the coronavirus-related stoppage, according to a team press release. The Gayle Benson Community Assistance Fund will also provide assistance to the general New Orleans community. Numerous players and teams have reached out to help their arena workers.
LeBron James‘ pursuit of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record and Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s potentially historic follow-up to his MVP season are among the storylines that won’t be played out if the season is canceled, Michael Lee of The Athletic notes. The Pelicans’ pursuit of the Grizzlies for the Western Conference’s final playoff berth, with the added intrigue of those teams being led by top rookies Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, would also fall by the wayside.
The hiatus could have a silver lining for the Clippers, ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk points out. The prime title contender will have a chance to get fully healthy heading into the postseason, as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will have an extended time to rest, while Lou Williams (calf) and Patrick Beverley (groin) can recover from their ailments. The article breaks down what the hiatus means for each Western Conference club.