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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Atlantic Division

September 14th, 2022 at 7:56am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Atlantic division…

Boston Celtics

2021/22 record: 51-31
Over/under for 2022/23: 55.5 wins
Major offseason moves:
- Added: Malcolm Brogdon, Danilo Gallinari, Noah Vonleh, Bruno Caboclo
  - Note: Gallinari tore his ACL and is expected to miss most or all of the 2022/23 season. Vonleh and Caboclo are among a series of players expected to compete for roster spots; the others haven’t yet officially signed.
- Lost: Daniel Theis, Aaron Nesmith, Juwan Morgan, Nik Stauskas, Malik Fitts

Brooklyn Nets

2021/22 record: 44-38
Over/under for 2022/23: 51.5 wins
Major offseason moves:
- Added: Royce O’Neale, T.J. Warren, Markieff Morris, Edmond Sumner, Yuta Watanabe
- Lost: Bruce Brown, Andre Drummond, LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Goran Dragic
- Note: The Nets are also expected to have Ben Simmons available after he missed the entire 2021/22 season.

Philadelphia 76ers

2021/22 record: 51-31
Over/under for 2022/23: 50.5 wins
Major offseason moves:
- Added: P.J. Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, Danuel House, Montrezl Harrell, Trevelin Queen
- Lost: Danny Green, Paul Millsap, DeAndre Jordan

Toronto Raptors

2021/22 record: 48-34
Over/under for 2022/23: 46.5 wins
Major offseason moves:
- Added: Otto Porter Jr., Christian Koloko, Juancho Hernangomez, D.J. Wilson, Josh Jackson
  - Note: Wilson and Jackson don’t have fully guaranteed contracts and may not make the regular season roster.
- Lost: Svi Mykhailiuk, Yuta Watanabe, Armoni Brooks, Isaac Bonga

New York Knicks

2021/22 record: 37-45
Over/under for 2022/23: 40.5 wins
Major offseason moves:
- Added: Jalen Brunson, Isaiah Hartenstein
- Lost: Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, Kemba Walker, Taj Gibson, Ryan Arcidiacono

Previous voting results:

Central

Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Pacific

Golden State Warriors (53.5 wins): Over (69.2%)
Phoenix Suns (53.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
Los Angeles Clippers (52.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
Los Angeles Lakers (45.5 wins): Under (66.6%)
Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (62.0%)

Southwest

Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)

Rose Wanted Brunson For Years; Barrett Pleased With Extension

September 13th, 2022 at 8:25pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Knicks president Leon Rose had his eyes on Jalen Brunson well before the team signed him in free agency, Marc Berman of the New York Post reports. During his first meeting with the team’s scouts in March 2020, Rose named Brunson as one of his future targets. That came as a surprise to some of those scouts, considering Brunson was a second-year player averaging less than 10 points off Dallas’ bench that season.

Knicks wing RJ Barrett is thrilled he signed a rookie scale extension, Berman relays. Barrett was speaking at season ticket holder event hosted by MSG Network’s Monica McNutt. “I feel honored and blessed. This is a place I wanted to be,” Barrett said. “I was happy they first drafted me and now with the extension, to be here four more years, will be great and I’m excited to get to work.’’ Barrett, who received a four-year extension with a base value of $107MM and a maximum value of $120MM, has no worries about blending his talents with Brunson. “Being around him, I’ve gotten to gravitate toward him. When we’re together, we’ll play well, especially with us both lefties.’’

New York Notes: Nets, Sumner, Lustgarten, Barkley, Wesley

September 10th, 2022 at 10:16am CST by Dana Gauruder

A fast start to the regular season would release a lot of the tension and uneasiness surrounding the Nets as they head into training camp, Brian Lewis of the New York Post writes.

Media day will be much anticipated, as Kevin Durant will be asked why he wanted Steve Nash and GM Sean Marks fired, and the latter duo will have to discuss how they plan to coexist with the player who tried to oust them. They did already meet in Los Angeles to discuss the situation.

However, if things don’t go well during a rugged early schedule, issues created by Durant’s previous trade request and others regarding Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons could resurface, as Lewis observes.

We have more on the New York teams:

The Nets’ Edmond Sumner is excited about his progress from a ruptured Achilles that sidelined him last season when he was with the Pacers. He has apparently gone full speed in five-on-five scrimmages. He feels he can provide versatility to the club, as he told Chris Carrino on a podcast (hat tip to NetsDaily). “I feel I can do a lot of stuff, play off the ball, if you want me to play multiple positions. guard multiple positions,” he said. “I feel I can be a jack of all trades.” Sumner signed a two-year contract that is partially guaranteed in the first year and non-guaranteed in the second year.
Andrew Lustgarten is stepping down as CEO and president of MSG Sports, the parent of the Knicks and Rangers, according to Sportico.com. Lustgarten will stay on as MSG Sports CEO through the end of the year, when he will transition to the board. David Hopkinson, an executive vice president at MSG Sports, has been promoted to president and COO.
TNT analyst Charles Barkley said in Sirius XM interview (hat tip to Ian Begley of SNY.TV) that he spoke with Knicks executive William Wesley about why they didn’t complete a deal for Donovan Mitchell. Wesley told Barkley that the Jazz asked for too much.“They wanted my wife, my kids…. We wanted the deal, obviously,” Wesley told Barkley. “But he said they wanted my wife, they wanted my kids, they wanted my grandkids. They were just trying to rip somebody off.”

Community Shootaround: New York Knicks

September 9th, 2022 at 9:48pm CST by Rory Maher

After missing the playoffs for seven straight years, the Knicks had a surprising turnaround during the 2020/21 season under new head coach Tom Thibodeau, finishing with a 41-31 record, the No. 4 seed in the East. They ultimately fell to the Hawks in the first round, but it was still a successful season, particularly given the notable contributions from Julius Randle and RJ Barrett.

Randle was an All-Star for the first time, earned a berth on the All-NBA Second Team, and was voted Most Improved Player after averaging 24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 6.0 APG on .456/.411/.811 shooting (.567 true shooting percentage). Barrett improved his numbers across the board, and his .441/.401/.746 (.535 true) shooting line was very encouraging for a player who had question marks about his jump shot.

New York had the NBA’s third-ranked defense in ’20/21, and its net rating was +2.4, ninth in the league. The team’s expected win total precisely matched its actual total, per Basketball-Reference.

Unfortunately, the Knicks had a disappointing follow-up season in ’21/22, finishing with a 37-45 record, the No. 11 seed in the East. Randle fell back to earth a bit and had several strange incidents both on and off the court, posting a disappointing .411/.308/.756 (.509 true) shooting line and lacking the same effort level defensively. Similarly, although his scoring average improved, Barrett’s efficiency got worse, posting a .408/.342/.714 (.511 true) shooting line.

The team’s offensive rating was nearly identical between the two seasons (110.6 vs. 110.4, both below average), but the defense fell to 11th in the league, with a -0.1 net rating. The Knicks’ actual win total was four less than expected, but even if they had won four more games, they still would’ve likely missed the play-in tournament (Atlanta and Charlotte both finished with 43 wins).

The Knicks’ front office recognized that they needed to make some changes and have had a busy offseason, trading away the No. 11 pick (Ousmane Dieng) to the Thunder to acquire three 2023 protected first-round picks, then flipping one (the Nuggets’ lottery-protected pick) and four second-rounders to the Hornets for the draft rights to No. 13 pick Jalen Duren.

New York then packaged Duren with Kemba Walker, receiving the Bucks’ 2025 top-four protected first-rounder from the Pistons in the deal. The Knicks also made a separate trade with Detroit, a salary dump move that sent Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, a second-rounder and $6MM in cash in exchange for a heavily-protected second-rounder.

All of those moves gave the Knicks the cap room to sign free agent guard Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104MM deal. They also signed center Isaiah Hartenstein to a two-year, $16MM deal and re-signed center Mitchell Robinson to a four-year, $60MM contract.

Obviously, they were heavily involved in trade rumors for three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell, who landed in Cleveland, but ultimately didn’t make the deal and I’m not going to get into that much since it’s been written about ad nauseam.

Even though the Knicks have had an active summer, former Knicks head coach and current ESPN broadcaster Jeff Van Gundy doesn’t think the team has moved the needle much with its roster moves, per Marc Berman of The New York Post.

“The Knicks have good players, but you line it up against the competition in the East, and this roster is not on the same level,” Van Gundy told Berman in a phone interview. “They could shock the world and be a playoff team, but I look at the East and I’d have to say eight to 13 is where they should be predicted. They’re not even close to a lock for the play-in. A lot has to go right.”

According to Van Gundy, the Knicks lack the top-end talent to be considered a real threat. He suggests that a turnaround and play-in berth might hinge upon a bounce-back season from Randle.

That leads us to our question of the day. Do you agree with Van Gundy’s assessment that “a lot has to go right” for the Knicks to make the play-in tournament? Head to the comments section and let us know what you think.

Jazz Notes: Mitchell Trade, Knicks Talks, Conley, Bass

September 9th, 2022 at 9:11am CST by Luke Adams

Within their Thursday press release officially confirming the trade that sent Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland, the Jazz‘s top decision-makers explained why they felt it was necessary to move the club’s leading scorer, a three-time All-Star who just turned 26.

“It was clear that in order to optimize our opportunity to create a team that could truly contend and establish sustained success, we needed to transition our roster,” Jazz CEO Danny Ainge said in a statement. “In trading Rudy (Gobert) and now Donovan, it was a rare opportunity to maximize our ability to get quality talent and picks to best position us moving forward. We have a plan in place to help us assemble the championship team our fans deserve. It will take time to craft our roster. We all understand the work ahead and are committed to our vision.”

General manager Justin Zanik, meanwhile, referred to Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, and Ochai Agbaji as three “exciting young players,” suggesting the front office views the trio as part of the Jazz’s long-term plan.

“We believe that they fit the Jazz culture and hard-nosed, competitive brand of basketball we’ve built here in Utah,” Zanik said. “They give us versatility and athleticism on both ends of the floor as we grow toward the future. We look forward to our fans getting to know them.”

Here’s more out of Utah:

Previous reports suggested there was some level of “animus” between the Jazz and Knicks, due in part to Knicks executives sitting courtside at Utah’s first playoff game vs. Dallas in the spring, as well as to New York’s decision to extend RJ Barrett while the two teams were negotiating his possible inclusion in a Mitchell trade. However, ESPN’s Zach Lowe said on his Lowe Post podcast that any hard feelings between the Jazz and the Knicks weren’t the reason why Utah made a deal with Cleveland instead of New York.
“Emotions can play into this,” Lowe said, per RealGM. “I’ve been assured by the Utah side that ‘No, look, we’re mature people. Yes, we were upset with particularly the Mavs’ game incident, but we’re not going to make decisions based on those kind of things that now happened four months ago or whatever. We’ve made the best deal possible.'”
In a column for The Salt Lake Tribune, Robert Gehrke focuses on the off-court impact of the Mitchell trade, arguing that Utah has lost a “conscience of our community.”
Nekias Duncan of BasketballNews.com considers what Mike Conley can still bring to a contending team and explores which clubs might be realistic trade suitors for the veteran point guard. Meanwhile, Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune weighs where Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jordan Clarkson could land if they’re traded.
The Salt Lake City Stars – Utah’s G League affiliate – acquired the returning rights to Paris Bass and Elijah Cain in a trade with the South Bay Lakers, per a press release. Bass is reportedly signing an Exhibit 10 deal with the Jazz, so the team clearly intends to have him play for the Stars — it remains to be seen whether Cain is also in SLC’s plans for 2022/23.

Atlantic Notes: Knicks, Raptors, Celtics, Sumner

September 8th, 2022 at 8:19pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The Knicks are hoping to rebound from a disappointing 2021/22 NBA season, with a $104MM new lead guard on the roster in Jalen Brunson. Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News assesses the club’s roster, projecting starters and the likely first names off the bench.

Bondy also notes that, in terms of potential future deals, 2019 lottery pick Cam Reddish, acquired in a midseason trade with the Hawks, seems to want to move on. “It’s clear Cam has no place there,” a source close to the 6’8″ small forward told the Daily News. Bondy writes that the big question mark in the team’s starting lineup is at the shooting guard position, where the battle for suiting up as Brunson’s new backcourt mate looks to be between Evan Fournier and Quentin Grimes.

There’s more out of the Atlantic Division:

Following a return to the playoffs in 2021/22, the Raptors will be looking to build off their 48-34 season. Eric Koreen of The Athletic identifies paths to improvement for Toronto, including All-NBA forward Pascal Siakam‘s pull-up three-pointers, second-year forward Scottie Barnes‘s defense on the wing, and swingman OG Anunoby‘s scoring in isolation.
The Celtics returned to the NBA Finals for the first time in 12 years last season. Jared Weiss of The Athletic examines ways in which head coach Ime Udoka could look to preserve the health of injury-prone starting center Robert Williams and 36-year-old starting power forward Al Horford, including giving more minutes to reserve Luke Kornet.
New Nets wing Edmond Sumner has cleared an injury recovery hurdle, he announced in a tweet. The nature of the step Sumner took was not clarified. “Hit a big milestone today!” Sumner wrote in part. “Been patiently waiting to get up and down. Been grinding and trusting this process not rushing it.” Sumner signed with Brooklyn on a veteran’s minimum deal this offseason, after missing all of 2021/22 with a torn left Achilles tendon.

Mavericks, Knicks Eyeing Bojan Bogdanovic

September 8th, 2022 at 12:41pm CST by Rory Maher

The Mavericks and Knicks are among the teams with interest in Jazz veteran Bojan Bogdanovic, according to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM (Twitter link), who states that Utah is looking for draft picks and players on expiring contracts in return.

In addition to Dallas and New York, Gambadoro reports that the Lakers and Suns remain interested in the sharpshooting forward, but he notes that the Jazz might not have as much interest in Phoenix’s first-round picks because they are expected to be one of the top teams once again in 2022/23 after having the NBA’s best record last season (64-18).

The Lakers’ interest in Bogdanovic has been well-documented, and Gambadoro reported a week ago that the Suns inquired about his services as well. Bogdanovic, who is on a $19.55MM expiring contract, is a talented scorer and shooter, averaging 18.3 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .461/.403/.860 shooting over the past four seasons. He’s currently competing in EuroBasket action with the Croatian national team.

If the Jazz are looking for expiring deals, the Mavs don’t have a clean one-for-one fit for salary-matching purposes. Reaching an extension agreement with Maxi Kleber rules him out, and it’s highly unlikely that they’d consider moving Christian Wood after just acquiring him in June.

That only leaves Dwight Powell‘s $11MM expiring deal, plus former first-rounder Josh Green and Frank Ntilikina to match salaries. Green has a team option for $4.77MM in ’23/24.

The Knicks could pull it off a little easier, at least in theory, by trading Derrick Rose‘s $14.5MM pseudo-expiring contract (team option in ’23/24) plus someone like Cam Reddish, who will make $5.95MM in the final season of his rookie deal.

As Gambadoro mentioned, either package would have to include draft picks to land the highly-coveted forward.

The Jazz are in the midst of a full-fledged rebuild after trading their two best players, three-time All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, plus veterans Royce O’Neale and Patrick Beverley. They’ve targeted first-round picks and/or young players in all four deals.

And-Ones: Expansion, Seattle, Vegas, Draft Assets, Ignite

September 7th, 2022 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Is the NBA ready to move forward on its long-rumored plans to expand to Seattle and Las Vegas? Willie G. Ramirez of The Associated Press (Twitter link) says he has heard from multiple sources that the league wants to announce expansion when those two cities hosts preseason games this fall. The Clippers will play in Seattle on September 30 and October 3, while the Lakers are set to play in Vegas on October 5 and 6.

Despite Ramirez’s report, it’s still probably premature to get excited about an impending announcement. Rumors of possible expansion have simmered off and on for years, and the NBA has repeatedly shot them down, indicating that any plans to add more teams are on the back-burner. Still, it seems increasingly likely that expansion is coming sooner or later, with Seattle and Las Vegas atop the league’s list of potential destinations.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

As rumors about expansion resurface, Evan Sidery of BasketballNews.com considers what an expansion draft might look like if the NBA uses the same rules it did for its last expansion draft (the Bobcats in 2004). Of course, Sidery’s hypothetical expansion draft is based on teams’ current rosters, and any expansion team is unlikely to enter the league for a few years, but it’s still an interesting exercise that shows what kinds of players might go unprotected.
Following the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell blockbuster trades, the Jazz have the strongest collection of future draft picks of any NBA team, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link), who ranks Utah’s draft assets slightly ahead of the Thunder‘s. The Spurs have the third-best stash of future picks, per Marks. The Pelicans, Rockets, Knicks, Magic, and Pacers round out his top eight, in that order.
The G League Ignite have officially announced the additions of Australian prospect Mojave King and Canadian prospect Leonard Miller, confirming the signings today in a press release. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony previously reported that King and Miller would be joining the Ignite.

Details On RJ Barrett's Extension

September 6th, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

RJ Barrett‘s four-year contract extension with the Knicks includes exactly $107MM in guaranteed money and $13MM in total incentives, Hoops Rumors has confirmed. Like Barrett’s base salaries, his annual incentives increase by 8% a year, starting at $2,901,790 in 2023/24 and rising to $3,598,209 by ’26/27. Barrett’s starting base salary in year one of the extension is $23,883,929 — that figure will increase to $29,616,071 by ’26/27.

Front Office Botched Mitchell Talks

September 5th, 2022 at 9:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Knicks made a series of mistakes and botched negotiations with the Jazz regarding a potential Donovan Mitchell trade, Alan Hahn opines in a Substack post. They potentially alienated some young players and essentially sent a message to RJ Barrett that he’s not destined for stardom despite giving him an extension. They also overestimated the value of protected draft picks and the package they offered for Mitchell before Utah completed a deal with the Cavaliers. It now calls into question the franchise’s overall strategy, Hahn adds.