- With center Mitchell Robinson on the shelf, the Knicks have had internal talks about big man Norvel Pelle, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post. However, New York has a full roster and would have to waive a player to make room for someone like Pelle, who will be a free agent on Thursday if he clears waivers after being cut by Brooklyn.
We’re over a third away into the NBA’s 2020/21 regular season, and while the standings will surely fluctuate significantly between now and the end of the season in May, we’re starting to get a sense of which teams will be competitive and which teams probably won’t be.
As a picture begins to form of which teams will be vying for top seeds in each conference and which might be battling for lottery odds, it’s worth checking in on the traded first-round picks for 2021. Of next year’s 30 first-round selections, as many as 13 could technically change hands, via trades or swaps. This year’s standings will dictate where those picks land and whether or not some of them change hands at all.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here’s an early look at which of those traded picks are most and least likely to change hands, and which ones are still very much up in the air:
Unprotected picks that will definitely change hands:
- Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick.
- Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick.
There’s no mystery here about whether or not these picks will be conveyed in 2021, since both are unprotected. It looks like the Knicks will make out much better than the Pelicans, given how well the Lakers have played and how much the Mavericks has struggled. As of today, Dallas’ pick projects to fall in the lottery, at No. 13 (depending on play-in results), while L.A.’s first-rounder would be No. 29.
Protected picks that almost certainly won’t change hands:
- Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection).
- Rockets acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
The Jazz currently have the NBA’s best record, while the Pistons hold the league’s second-worst record. That means Utah’s pick will be at the end of the first round (currently No. 30) and comfortably fall within its 15-30 protection, while Detroit’s pick will absolutely be in the lottery (currently No. 2) and won’t be sent to Houston. It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which this outlook changes in the coming months.
The Grizzlies can at least count on getting Utah’s first-rounder in 2022, when it will become top-six protected. It may be a while before the Rockets get a pick from Detroit though — that first-rounder remains heavily protected in 2022 (top-16), 2023 (top-18), and 2024 (top-18) before those protections start to loosen a little.
It’s also worth mentioning here that the Knicks have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Clippers this season, but are very unlikely to pass L.A. in the standings and be in position to exercise that option. New York’s first-rounder currently projects to be No. 17, while the Clippers’ would be No. 28.
Still up in the air:
- Warriors acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick (top-three protected).
- Thunder acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected).
The Timberwolves have the NBA’s worst record, which theoretically puts them in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. However, the league’s lottery format means that even if Minnesota finishes at the bottom of the NBA standings, there’s still only about a 40% chance they’ll end up in the top three and keep that first-rounder, with a 60% chance of it going to the Warriors. The fate of that pick figures to remain up in the air right up until lottery night.
We have a better chance at getting clarity on the fate of Golden State’s first-rounder before the end of the season, but at the moment, it could still easily go either way. The Warriors’ 15-13 record would give the team the No. 20 overall pick if the season ended today, allowing them to keep their pick rather than sending it to the Thunder. But that could change quickly — there are currently 11 teams within two games of Golden State in the NBA standings, on one side or the other.
Analyzing the Rockets/Thunder/Heat/Blazers/Nets situation:
Six teams’ draft picks are tied up in a series of convoluted trades and swaps that are nearly impossible to explain clearly and concisely. Fortunately, one of those teams is the Pistons, whose pick will be protected this year, removing them from the equation.
That still leaves five teams in this complex arrangement, however. We did our best in an earlier story to explain how this situation will work. It essentially breaks down like this:
- The Thunder will have the right to swap either their first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick for the Rockets‘ first-round pick, but only if Houston’s pick doesn’t fall in the top four. In other words, if Houston gets a top-four pick, the Rockets will keep their own first-rounder; if not, the Thunder will get the two most favorable picks of their own, the Heat’s, and the Rockets’, and Houston will get the least favorable.
- Once the first step is complete, the Rockets will be left with at least one first-round pick, and likely two, since they’re also owed the Trail Blazers‘ first-rounder (top-14 protected). They would then have the right to swap either of those picks with the Nets‘ first-rounder (unprotected).
If the season ended today, the Heat, Thunder, and Rockets would – believe it or not – all be tied in the standings with matching 11-16 records. A random tiebreaker would determine where those first-rounders land in the 6-to-9 range (since Atlanta also has a 11-16 record), assuming no lottery movement, then the Thunder would claim the two most favorable picks (no worse than No. 7 and No. 8), while the Rockets would get the least favorable pick (either No. 8 or No. 9).
The Rockets would also receive the Trail Blazers’ first-rounder (either No. 25 or No. 26), and would subsequently swap it with the Nets’ pick (No. 24), leaving Brooklyn with that Portland pick.
I’d expect this situation to continue to evolve considerably over the course of the season, but for now it looks pretty favorable for both the Thunder and the Rockets.
Knicks center Mitchell Robinson underwent surgery on Tuesday to repair a fracture in his right hand, the team’s PR department tweets.
The procedure was performed at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York. He’ll be re-evaluated after the All-Star break, the statement adds. Robinson is expected to miss four to six weeks.
Robinson suffered the fracture of the fourth metacarpal against Washington on Friday night. He was injured when his hand banged Julius Randle‘s elbow as he attempted to block Rui Hachimura‘s shot late in the second quarter.
He’s averaging 8.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG and 1.5 BPG in 28.8 MPG. The 2018 second-round pick is one of the lowest-paid starters in the league at $1.66MM. The team holds a $1.82MM option on his contract for next season.
With Robinson sidelined, Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson will get the bulk of the minutes at the center spot. New York has defeated Houston and Atlanta since Robinson went on the shelf.
Julius Randle is in the midst of his best season since entering the NBA, punctuating that point on Monday as he led the Knicks to a win over the Hawks by pouring in 44 points to go along with nine rebounds and five assists. After the game, Randle’s teammates made it clear that they believe he deserves All-Star recognition for his performance this season.
“It’s hard not to put him in the game,” RJ Barrett said, according to Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic. “What else does he have to do? The man is an All-Star.”
So far this season, Randle is averaging career highs in points per game (23.1), rebounds (11.0), assists (5.6), and three-point percentage (40.6%), among other categories. And while he has posted strong box-score numbers in the past, this version of Randle is making a greater “impact on winning,” according to head coach Tom Thibodeau.
“I think he’s making other people better,” Thibodeau said. “He’s played an all-around game. Strong on both sides of the ball. He’s played an unselfish game. He’s doing it in a number of different ways. Playing multiple positions. He’s a point forward, he’s a forward, he’s a center. He’s doing it all. The most important thing is the impact he’s having on winning. Hopefully it’ll be recognized.”
Here’s more on the Knicks:
- After missing the last week due to the NBA’s coronavirus contact tracing protocols, Frank Ntilikina has been cleared and is expected to join the Knicks for Wednesday’s game in Orlando, tweets Vorkunov.
- The Knicks have yet to inquire on John Collins, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post, who says NBA executives believe the Hawks are unlikely to trade the big man unless they receive a “whopping” offer.
- Cavaliers center Andre Drummond, who is expected to be traded in the coming weeks, would consider the Knicks a “good landing spot,” Berman writes in the same story.
- A weekend report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski indicated that Mitchell Robinson would undergo surgery on his fractured right hand, but the injured center is getting one more consultation on Tuesday before making a final decision on that procedure, says Berman.
Four Spurs players have tested positive for the coronavirus and the team’s next three games will be postponed, sources tell ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link). The Hornets, who faced San Antonio on Sunday, will enter the NBA’s contact tracing protocols and will have their next two games postponed as well, per Wojnarowski.
The NBA has issued a press release confirming Woj’s report and noting that additional contact tracing is required for players on both teams’ rosters.
The Spurs already had their Tuesday game vs. the Pistons postponed after one positive COVID-19 test was confirmed, so they’ll have a total of four games pushed back in the next week. That includes Wednesday’s contest in Cleveland vs. the Cavaliers, Saturday’s game in New York vs. the Knicks, and next Monday’s game in Indiana vs. the Pacers.
If possible, San Antonio would resume its schedule next Wednesday in Oklahoma City against the Thunder. For the time being, the Spurs remain quarantined in Charlotte, where they’ve been since Sunday, tweets Wojnarowski.
As for the Hornets, they’ll have home games against the Bulls on Wednesday and the Nuggets on Friday postponed. If further testing and contact tracing doesn’t reveal any positive tests on the roster, the team could be cleared to host the Warriors on Saturday.
A total of 29 NBA regular season games have now been unexpectedly postponed due to the coronavirus, as our tracker shows. A 30th game was pushed back to the second half to accommodate another rescheduled game.
The Cavaliers would prefer not to take bad contracts with multiple years remaining in a potential Andre Drummond deal. However, they’re open-minded to that possibility if an asset is included that would justify a restricted future cap, Chris Fedor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. The front office would otherwise like to protect cap space with extensions for Collin Sexton and Jarrett Allen on the horizon.
Cleveland has received calls on Drummond, as well as Allen and JaVale McGee, but it is not interested in dealing Allen. Fedor explores potential trade partners for Drummond and what those deals could include.
We have more on the Cavaliers:
- Spencer Davies of Basketball News also speculates where Drummond, an impending unrestricted free agent after the season, could be dealt. The Raptors, Mavericks, Knicks and Kings could be among the teams in the mix if a trade is completed, while the Nets would be the front-runner if Drummond winds up on the buyout market.
- Drummond didn’t play on Sunday, but that didn’t solve any problems as the Cavaliers lost for the ninth time in 10 games. They were overwhelmed by a Clippers team playing without stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, demonstrating that the team’s issues go far deeper than Drummond, Fedor writes. The Cavs’ overall effort has been lacking, especially at the defensive end. “I think defensively we need to be better,” Cedi Osman said. “I mean, it’s just not enough, especially against these types of teams. We have to play harder.”
- Kevin Love has been making progress from the right calf strain that has kept him out since December 27 and coach J.B. Bickerstaff said the team could desperately use his veteran presence and scoring prowess, Fedor notes in a separate story. “There’s times in games when you can see ‘This is where Kevin would help us’ or ‘This is where he would help settle us in. I know right now he’d get a foul because we’re in the bonus.’ There’s those moments where you see,” Bickerstaff said.
With the addition of Derrick Rose to the Knicks‘ roster, nominal point forward Julius Randle (averaging a career-best 5.8 APG) will have to make changes to his game, writes Peter Botte of the New York Post.
“He’s gonna be extremely helpful,” Randle said of the Rose addition. “It gives us not just a veteran presence but a guy who can go out there and create plays, just a steadiness about him, just a confidence about him.”
Botte notes that thus far Randle and Rose’s minutes have been relatively staggered.
There’s more out of New York:
- Knicks rookie Immanuel Quickley, not even the first Knicks first-round pick in the 2020 NBA draft, has been impressing around the league thus far in his first season, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post. Though fans fretted that the arrival of a proven veteran scorer like Rose could cut into Quickley’s minutes, the rookie point guard has been playing alongside the former MVP in reserve lineups. “I’m learning a lot of stuff [from him],’’ Quickley said. “He’s a dog, an alpha dog, he’s a leader. It’s great to have somebody like that in my corner.’’
- Rose is already proving a welcome addition to the Knicks, according to Peter Botte of the New York Post. “He’s a great student of the game,” coach Tom Thibodeau raved about Rose, who has played for Thibodeau in all three of his head coaching stops thus far. “I think that is what has allowed him to adapt, grow and change.” Rose is averaging 14.7 PPG and 4.0 APG with New York, while posting an impressive shooting line of .548/.529/.778.
- The injury that will keep starting center Mitchell Robinson sidelined for at least six weeks is creating a huge opportunity for backup big man Nerlens Noel, as Marc Berman of the New York Post details. “Mitchell is a big piece on this team,” Noel said. “Everything he brings to the table. I hope he has a speedy recovery. Until then, I’ll definitely man the defense, man the paint. Just make sure I’m playing at a high level for this team.”
The Knicks may use some small-ball lineups while center Mitchell Robinson is sidelined with a fractured hand, writes Steve Popper of Newsday. The team is planning a group effort to replace Robinson, who anchors the defense with 1.5 blocks, 1.2 steals, and 8.4 rebounds per game. Nerlens Noel will likely become the starter, with Taj Gibson seeing increased playing time, but coach Tom Thibodeau is willing to use Julius Randle in the middle beside Kevin Knox or Obi Toppin.
“It’s always part of what we can do,” Thibodeau said. “I think in looking at what Mitch provided and what Nerlens provided, I thought that was a strength, and then maybe what Taj provides, as well. But I think Obi is playing at a high level right now, and that second group has a lot of speed and they can get up and run the floor.”
There’s more on the Knicks:
- Noel was the team’s starting center during the preseason while Robinson was learning Thibodeau’s system, and the coach is confident he can slide back into that role, Popper adds in a separate story. “Any time a player like Mitch goes down, you don’t replace him individually,” Thibodeau said. “You have to do it collectively. And that’s where we feel good about our team. I think Taj, going in, his experience will help. Nerlens has done a terrific job for us. We want to make sure we maintain the defensive component of our team and I think those two guys can do that.”
- The Knicks have plenty of assets on hand and the new front office is willing to package several of them in return for a star player, sources tell Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. One possible target is Wizards guard Bradley Beal if he changes his mind about wanting to stay in Washington. An unidentified general manager tells Bondy it would likely take three first-round picks, two pick swaps, a young player and an expiring contract to land Beal. Rockets guard Victor Oladipo and Bulls guard Zach LaVine have also been mentioned as possibilities if the Knicks don’t want to pay that price.
- John Wall keeps close tabs on fellow Kentucky players and is impressed by the progress of Knicks rookie Immanuel Quickley, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post. “He’s someone I respect,’’ Wall said. “I’m very happy for him to get the opportunity. I’m glad he’s showing people he’s more than just a shooter. That’s a lot of what people thought. The way he runs the point-guard position has been good. It’s going to be good to go against him.”
Knicks center Mitchell Robinson will undergo surgery on his fractured right hand and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN tweets.
Robinson suffered a fracture of the fourth metacarpal against Washington on Friday night. He was injured when his hand banged Julius Randle‘s elbow as he attempted to block Rui Hachimura‘s shot late in the second quarter, according to Peter Botte of the New York Post.
“He’s obviously bummed that he can’t be there with us on a night to night basis, but like I said, he’s in great spirits,” Randle said. “He’s a great teammate. And he’s gonna be there with us every step of the way still.”
He’s averaging 8.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG and 1.5 BPG in 28.8 MPG. The 2018 second-round pick is one of the lowest-paid starters in the league at $1.66MM. The team holds a $1.82MM option on his contract for next season.
With Robinson sidelined, Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson will get the bulk of the minutes at the center spot. New York has a full roster and would have to make room to add another big man.
- Knicks rookie forward Obi Toppin could reap benefits from playing with recently-acquired Derrick Rose, Steve Popper of Newsday notes. Toppin was fouled while dunking off a pass from Rose against Miami on Tuesday. Toppin could return to his rim-running ways in college, rather than be used a spot-up shooter. “Playing with him, he plays with speed. He looks to find guys,” Toppin said of Rose. “So playing with this team, period, is amazing, but Derrick, having him here now is amazing.”
- The Knicks will start allowing a limited number of fans at Madison Square Garden on February 23 and Toppin is excited to finally play in front of a home crowd, he told Marc Berman of the New York Post. “We have the best fan base in the NBA,” he said. “It will be amazing to have fans. But safety is first. When that time comes for fans to be there we’ll love it.’