Knicks Rumors

Atlantic Notes: Dolan, Embiid, Sixers, J. Porter

January 16th, 2024 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Knicks owner James Dolan has been accused of sexual assault, according to reports from Ben Sisario of The New York Times and Marjorie Hernandez and Selim Algar of The New York Post.

Dolan’s accuser, Kellye Croft, filed a federal lawsuit on Tuesday claiming that he pressured her into unwanted sex with him and that he coordinated an encounter with Harvey Weinstein, who allegedly sexually assaulted her. Croft worked as a masseuse on a 2013 tour headlined by The Eagles that also featured Dolan’s band, J.D. and the Straight Shot. The incidents with Dolan and Weinstein are said to have taken place in 2013 and 2014.

One of Dolan’s attorneys issued a statement saying that there is “absolutely no merit” to the allegations: “Kellye Croft and James Dolan had a friendship. Mr. Dolan always believed Ms. Croft to be a good person and is surprised she would agree to these claims. Bottom line, this is not a he said/she said matter and there is compelling evidence to back up our position. We look forward to proving that in court.”

Asked today about the lawsuit, commissioner Adam Silver didn’t have much to tell reporters so soon after the publication of the reports, as Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN tweets. “I saw the article and don’t know anything else about it other than I read the article so we’ll stand by and wait to find out more information,” Silver said.

Here’s more from around the Atlantic:

Sixers star Joel Embiid, who returned on Monday from a three-game injury absence, said he’s not worried about meeting the 65-game requirement to qualify for end-of-season awards such as MVP. “It doesn’t matter how many games I play,” Embiid said (story via ESPN.com). “The goal is to be healthy the rest of the year.” Embiid isn’t on the injury report for Tuesday’s contest vs. Denver, so it appears he’ll square off on the second night of a back-to-back set against fellow MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.
Gina Mizell of The Philadelphia Inquirer takes a look at how Daryl Morey‘s and Nick Nurse‘s time together in Houston laid the groundwork for them to reunite with the Sixers. Nurse tells Mizell that he believes his history with Morey has given him a leg up during his first year in Philadelphia. “Where the relationship enhances what’s happened is the speed at which we can move things along,” the head coach said. “Because we know each other, it’s not this, ‘Where’s this guy coming from?’ six-month process. That part I think has been a big plus.”
Jontay Porter didn’t open the season on the Raptors‘ roster, but the two-way big man has appeared in each of the team’s past seven games and earned his first start on Monday vs. Boston. Given how Porter has performed so far in Toronto, he could turn out to be a developmental win at a key position for an organization that has lacked those under-the-radar success stories in recent years, writes Eric Koreen of The Athletic.

New York Notes: Thomas, Dinwiddie, DSJ, Walker, Brunson, McBride

January 16th, 2024 at 12:35pm CST by Luke Adams

Following his eighth game since being moved from the Nets‘ starting lineup to the bench, Cam Thomas was asked after Monday’s loss to Miami whether he has gained a feel for the rotation patterns and whether he’s gained a “comfortability” with them. Thomas quickly replied with a blunt “no,” then paused for a few seconds before continuing (Twitter video link via Erik Slater of Clutch Points).

“I mean, it could change,” Thomas said. “I’m just doing my job. I’m just doing what I need to do when I get out there to produce. No, I don’t really have no comfortability coming off the bench or starting. Whatever (head coach Jacque Vaughn) wants me to do, that’s what I’m gonna do.”

Thomas subsequently clarified that he meant he doesn’t feel any complacency, according to Brian Lewis of The New York Post.

Thomas has had a few big nights since moving back to the bench, including scoring 26 points last Thursday and 23 on Monday. But he has also had 0-for-11 and 0-for-7 performances during that eight-game stretch and is shooting just .339/.263/.700 since being removed from the starting five. Brooklyn has lost seven of those eight contests.

Here’s more on the NBA’s two New York teams:

Veteran Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie continues to start, but played a limited role for a second straight game on Monday, logging just 20 minutes after playing only 16 on Thursday in Cleveland. As Lewis of The New York Post notes, Dennis Smith Jr. has been one beneficiary of Vaughn’s rotation tweaks — Smith played 32 minutes on Monday. “I’ve always talked about this being performance-based,” Vaughn said. “I thought Dennis had a good attack for us defensively. We’re just in a position right now where you have to perform, and that’s across the board. So that’s a challenge to the entire group from the beginning of the game to the end to be locked-in and to give everything you have on both ends of the floor.”
After Lonnie Walker scored 20 points in 25 minutes in last Thursday’s loss to the Cavs, Jared Schwartz of The New York Post wondered if the Nets might need to make more room for the veteran wing in the rotation. However, Walker has gone scoreless on 0-of-8 shooting in 21 total minutes in his other three appearances since returning from a hamstring injury.
Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson missed a second consecutive game on Monday due to a calf contusion, but his return doesn’t appear far off. Head coach Tom Thibodeau suggested that the issue is more about “pain tolerance” than concern about the risk of re-injury, writes Stefan Bondy of The New York Post. “It’s day-to-day,” Thibodeau said. “It’s a little better today. When he’s ready, he’s ready.”
With Brunson unavailable, Miles McBride got another start at point guard and set a new career high in points for the second time in three days, putting up 20 in a loss to Orlando. However, he blamed himself for the loss, citing his game management in a fourth quarter in which the Knicks scored just 16 points, per Bridget Reilly of The New York Post. “I’d say it’s my fault as a point guard. I needed to get everybody where they needed to be and manage the game a little bit better at the end,” McBride said. “… I gotta make sure I get everybody where they need to be and take control.”

Knicks Rumors: Grimes, Fournier, Robinson, Trade Rumors

January 16th, 2024 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

Quentin Grimes is a name to watch as a potential candidate to be moved ahead of the trade deadline, according to Fred Katz of The Athletic, who hears from rival executives that the Knicks are “actively fielding offers” for the third-year wing.

As Katz notes, the Knicks have made an effort to keep Grimes out of trades talks in the past, but the 23-year-old has taken a step back this year following a strong sophomore season in 2022/23 and has moved down the depth chart due to the offseason acquisition of Donte DiVincenzo. He’s playing just 19.8 minutes per night this season after averaging 29.9 MPG a year ago.

If they move Grimes in the next few weeks, the Knicks’ preference would be to attach him to Evan Fournier‘s expiring contract to bring back a player whose salary is in the neighborhood of $20MM, give or take a few million, Katz explains. The idea would be to acquire a quality player who could help immediately and whose contract could also be used – if necessary – in a deal for a star down the road. New York’s preference would be not to part with Grimes in a trade for a player who could walk in free agency this summer, league sources tell The Athletic.

No deal involving Grimes is imminent at this point, and the Knicks could also make a move with him this summer if he’s not traded at next month’s deadline, Katz writes.

Here’s more on the Knicks:

New York’s front office has been more interested in acquiring another ball-handler and facilitator rather than another center, according to Katz, who says the team is “increasingly optimistic” about Mitchell Robinson‘s chances of returning before the season ends — that optimism will influence how the club operates on the trade market.
With the Knicks not necessarily hopeful that a star-caliber player who fits into their plans will be available at the deadline, their ideal target would meet the following criteria, per Katz: He’d be someone on a tradable salary who is under contract beyond this season; he’d be able to run the offense when Jalen Brunson isn’t on the floor; and he’d be someone Tom Thibodeau can trust.
The Knicks haven’t been willing to put any unprotected first-round picks on the table in their trade talks so far, Katz reports, though they’re open to parting with protected first-rounders. New York controls four such picks from other teams, including Dallas’ top-10 protected 2024 first-rounder, which is the only one of the four likely to convey this year.

Atlantic Notes: McBride, Nets, Simmons, Embiid, Melton

January 15th, 2024 at 11:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Miles McBride‘s role has been expanding since the Knicks traded Immanuel Quickley to Toronto, so he was ready when he made his first start of the season on Saturday night, writes Steve Popper of Newsday. With Jalen Brunson sidelined by a calf injury, McBride responded by scoring a career-high 19 points in a win at Memphis.

“I mean, you prepare,” McBride said. “In the summer doing a lot of long workouts, a lot of running, just knowing at some point it’s a long season and your name is going to be called. So you’ve got to do whatever you can do to be prepared as much as you can.”

McBride hasn’t been able to earn consistent playing time since New York drafted him in 2021, but he was on the court for 38 minutes in Saturday’s game, including the entire second half. He received a three-year, $13MM extension on the day the trade was announced and appears to be secure as part of the Knicks’ future.

“He just plays hard,” coach Tom Thibodeau said. “He’s an elite defender. That’s been his strength. That’s been his calling card. He’s proven to be a really good shooter as well. He has a lot of confidence, really works hard on his game. So this is a great opportunity for him. Every time he’s been called upon, he’s been ready and he’s performed well.”

There’s more from the Atlantic Division:

The Nets, who opted for small-ball when Nic Claxton was hurt earlier this season, have been forced to go back to that approach due to a knee injury to backup center Day’Ron Sharpe, notes Jared Schwartz of The New York Post. Whenever Claxton rests, coach Jacque Vaughn replaces him with 6’7″ forward Dorian Finney-Smith. “Harry [Giles] is gonna have to step up, and guys are just gonna have to alter their roles a little bit,” Cameron Johnson said. “The one thing I think would change is you’re gonna see more small-ball. Obviously, [Claxton] has been doing a great job all year holding the paint down, but it’s hard to ask him to play 48 [minutes]. We’ll see how it goes. [Finney-Smith] is one of the best in the league at playing that small-ball 5. When we have it, that’s definitely on the table for us.”
The Nets haven’t decided if Ben Simmons will join them for their upcoming West Coast trip, Schwartz adds. Simmons has been sidelined since November 6 with a nerve impingement in his back, but he’s reportedly “in the home stretch” of his recovery process.
Joel Embiid will return to the Sixers‘ lineup this afternoon against Houston after missing the past three games with inflammation in his left knee, tweets Tim Bontemps of ESPN. Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer examines how Embiid’s injury history might affect his legacy.
Sixers coach Nick Nurse expects De’Anthony Melton to be sidelined at least a week as he deals with a lumbar injury, per Gina Mizell of The Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link).

Atlantic Notes: Quickley, Raptors, Harris, Thibodeau

January 14th, 2024 at 2:02pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

New Raptors starting point guard Immanuel Quickley is looking to an All-NBA superstar as a point of reference for his expanded role on Toronto, per Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca. Quickley has been watching game tape on Warriors point guard Stephen Curry.

“To see someone 6-foot-3, 190 pounds winning an MVP, it makes you ask yourself: ‘Why can’t I be great? If you have the work ethic, why can’t you go out and accomplish great things?’” Quickley said. “It’s always great to see great players do well, especially players who have the same kind of body type as you, it’s just cool to see that.”

Curry, meanwhile, had high praise for Quickley.

“He’s got so much potential in this league and the change of the scenery will be fresh for him,” Curry said. “He’s got a nice responsibility as a starting point guard now.”

There’s more out of the Atlantic Division:

These revamped Raptors are struggling on defense without OG Anunoby or Precious Achiuwa, writes Eric Koreen of The Athletic. In Koreen’s view, one part of the problem is the team’s decision to frequently play Quickley alongside reserve point guard Dennis Schröder, in undersized backcourt lineups.
Against the Kings on Friday, Sixers power forward Tobias Harris reminded Philadelphia fans why the team to sign him to a five-year, $180MM contract in 2019, per Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. His 37-point night vs. Sacramento came on the heels of a 32-point performance on Wednesday against the Hawks, marking the first time in his NBA career he has scored 30+ points in two straight games. With Embiid ailing from a sore left knee, Harris has taken on a bigger role in his team’s scoring attack.
After claiming his 500th career victory as a head coach, Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau reflected on the retirement of 24-year Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, per Stefan Bondy of The New York Post. “Growing up in New England, I appreciate what he brought, and what he did there was just incredible,” Connecticut native Thibodeau said. “That’s the mark of greatness to do it the way he did it for as long as he did. I grew up thinking the Patriots never win and then my nephews grew up thinking the Patriots win every year. So it’s completely different perspective. But I think a lot of coaches learn from him — coaching is leadership. He’s incredible. He’s at the top of my list.”

New York Notes: Claxton, Thomas, Randle, McBride

January 13th, 2024 at 9:54pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Nets want to keep Nic Claxton and he would prefer to stay in Brooklyn, but things may get complicated when he becomes a free agent this summer, writes Brian Lewis of The New York Post (member-only article). The 24-year-old center will be coveted by every team that needs help in the middle, and the Nets could face several free-spending competitors when he hits the market.

“In our business, you never really know what’s going to happen as far as trades, contracts and everything,” Claxton said. “But I’ve been here four years, and Brooklyn has been … huge, played a huge role in my growth, and I’d love to be here. But we’ll see how that shakes out. I’m just taking it day-by-day … and figure all that stuff out later.”

An unidentified agent told Lewis that Claxton might land a four-year, $90MM deal, and other league sources indicated to Lewis that his value could more in line with the five-year, $100MM contract that Jarrett Allen got from Cleveland. Claxton has been a constant source of production, even amid Brooklyn’s recent slide, averaging 12.2 points, a career-high 9.9 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in 28 games.

“That’s just our job,” Claxton said. “It’s our job just to stay in the present and not worry about not worrying about tomorrow, worry about this next game, whatever the next game may be. So just keeping yourself healthy; and everything, the contract, everything will work itself out. But right now, we’ve just got to focus on just trying to win games and then [for] me, just being the best version of myself for my team.”

There’s more from New York:

Thursday’s loss in Paris left Nets coach Jacque Vaughn with more lineup decisions, Lewis adds in a separate story. Cam Thomas helped to lead a fourth quarter comeback and matched Mikal Bridges with a team-high 26 points. Vaughn also praised Thomas’ efforts with boxing out and rebounding, but he hasn’t committed to moving the third-year guard back into the starting lineup. Thomas hasn’t started since December 27, and Vaughn said putting him in the starting unit makes it “pretty small.”
Part of Julius Randle‘s improvement has been an ability to avoid technical fouls, notes Stefan Bondy of The New York Post. The Knicks forward, who has picked up just one technical this season, says he’s learned how to control his anger. “It’s more about me personally than it is about anything else,” he said. “Letting me know that as a human being I’m growing and learning how to deal with frustration better.”
The 44 points that Dallas guard Kyrie Irving scored on Thursday marked a rare defensive letdown for the Knicks, per Steve Popper of Newsday. The team takes pride in finding ways to shut down the league’s best scorers. “The name of the game is to put the ball in the hoop, and my job as a defender is to stop that,” Miles McBride said. “If he did his job, I didn’t do mine. I like it kind of as an edge thing — if you think you’ve got to live with those shots, then you’re kind of losing that edge of always being ‘I want to get this stop.’ It’s treating every play like the last play of the game, because you never know what it comes down to.”

Southeast Notes: Murray, Love, Butler, Swider, Fultz

January 13th, 2024 at 8:36pm CST by Arthur Hill

Before Immanuel Quickley was traded to Toronto, the Hawks discussed a deal that would have sent Dejounte Murray to the Knicks in exchange for Quickley and a first-round pick, according to Dan Woike of The Los Angeles Times. Woike references the trade talks as part of a look at what the Lakers might do ahead of the February 8 deadline. L.A. has been mentioned as a possible suitor for Murray, who is considered likely to be dealt soon.

Woike expects the Hawks to ask for Austin Reaves in any deal with the Lakers involving Murray. He adds that if the cost is a first-round pick and a young player capable of contributing right away — which is what Atlanta asked from New York — then it’s hard to picture L.A. meeting it without parting with Reaves. However, sources tell Woike that the Lakers’ front office hasn’t included Reaves in any trade discussions.

Second-year guard Max Christie has moved into the rotation, but Woike notes that his value is lessened because he’s headed toward restricted free agent this summer. Woike identifies the Lakers’ 2029 first-round pick as their greatest trade asset, but he’s not sure if the team would give it up without at least some light protection.

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

Kevin Love is the latest addition to the Heat‘s injury list, according to Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. After playing 16 minutes Friday night, the veteran big man is listed as questionable for Sunday’s matchup with Charlotte because of a left knee contusion. Jimmy Butler is doubtful with a joint sprain in his right toe, meaning he’ll likely miss his seventh straight game, but Chiang says there’s hope he might be able to return Monday at Brooklyn.
Travel issues will prevent Cole Swider from joining the Heat for Sunday’s game, tweets Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press. Swider was sent to Miami’s G League affiliate in Sioux Falls earlier this week and is stuck because of severe weather in the Midwest. He’s expected to join the team in Brooklyn for Monday’s contest.
The Magic aren’t using Markelle Fultz in back-to-back games while he works his way back from tendinitis in his left knee, tweets Jason Beede of The Orlando Sentinel.

Scotto’s Latest: Gafford, Knicks, Mavs, Dinwiddie, Markkanen

January 12th, 2024 at 11:55am CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks inquired earlier this season on Wizards big man Daniel Gafford, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype told ESPN’s Bobby Marks in the latest episode of the HoopsHype podcast.

While Scotto doesn’t say exactly when that inquiry occurred, it was presumably sometime after New York lost Mitchell Robinson to the left ankle injury that is expected to sideline him for most or all of the season. It seems safe to assume, Scotto continues, that whatever level of interest the Knicks had in Gafford decreased after the club acquired Precious Achiuwa from Toronto in the OG Anunoby deal.

Here are a few more items of interest from the HoopsHype podcast:

The Mavericks are interested in upgrading at the forward position, according to Scotto, who suggests the team would be looking at either the three or the four. Scotto’s comment on the Mavs came during a more general conversation about Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant as a potential trade candidate — while Scotto views Dallas as a fit for Grant, he doesn’t explicitly say that the Mavs have expressed interest.
The Nets and Spencer Dinwiddie, who is on track for unrestricted free agency this summer, had brief extension discussions prior to the season when he became eligible to sign a new deal, per Scotto. The two sides reportedly explored a one- or two-year deal, but Dinwiddie wanted something longer. During their discussion, Scotto and Marks wondered if Dinwiddie’s days in Brooklyn may be numbered, which is a topic that Collin Helwig of NetsDaily also explored after the veteran guard didn’t play in crunch time on Sunday and barely saw any action in the second half on Thursday.
The trade speculation about Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen earlier this season seemed more like something other teams were trying to speak into existence rather than anything real, says Scotto, adding that Markkanen will be eligible for a contract renegotiation and extension with Utah next summer and seems interested in pursuing that.

Atlantic Notes: Simmons, Nets, Embiid, Arcidiacono

January 11th, 2024 at 6:52pm CST by Tristan Tucker

The Nets are “1,000%” behind Ben Simmons, according to his agent Bernard Lee of Thread Sports Management, via NetsDaily. Lee led a Q&A on Twitter on Wednesday, leading to some candid responses on the topic. Lee stated (on Twitter) that Simmons’ injuries are freakish and aren’t a “habitual thing.”

Additionally, according to Lee, Simmons is getting down the “home stretch” of his injury recovery. However, no specific timeline was provided. Simmons’ injuries have caused the three-time All-Star to miss 32 of 38 Nets games this season so far.

Lee gave some insight into Simmons’ recovery, tweeting each step of recovery takes about four or five days, with the team then assessing how he feels, and moving into the next phase as necessary. Simmons recently progressed to play 2-on-2 and 3-on-3 ball, according to Lee. Simmons would need to play 5-on-5 before he returns to game action.

Simmons’ agent praised the Brooklyn organization for being supportive during the 27-year-old’s recovery.

In his first six games this season, Simmons averaged 6.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists. The Nets went 3-3 in those games. They’re 13-19 since then.

We have more from the Atlantic Division:

The Nets have played internationally more than any team in the league, according to the New York Post’s Brian Lewis, most recently squaring off against the Cavaliers in Paris on Thursday. Now, Lewis writes they’re becoming the NBA’s global ambassadors. “The global fan base of the Nets is in the tens of millions,” George Aivazoglou, the NBA’s vice president, head of fan engagement said. “It’s [over] 50 million, which is tremendous. They’re in the top three teams that are followed here in France, and if we look at countries outside the U.S. in general, they’re in the top 10. So the plans and the work that the guys deliver have yielded tremendous results.“
The Sixers were hopeful Joel Embiid would be able to return from injury on Friday against the Kings (Subscriber link via The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Keith Pompey), but PHLY Sports’ Kyle Neubeck tweets they’ll have to wait a bit longer, as Embiid is out for that contest. After Friday’s game, Embiid will have missed three straight games and seven of Philly’s last nine. However, Pompey writes Embiid is progressing well and should be back soon.
While Knicks guard Ryan Arcidiacono hasn’t played much this season, he’s finding a way to make an impact in other regards, writes The Athletic’s Fred Katz. Arcidiacono is vocal about calling out opponents for committing defensive three-second violations, helping lead the refs to call 13 such penalties in front of New York’s bench this season. “That’s a real thing,” guard Donte DiVincenzo said. “I had teammates on other teams that do the same thing. If you don’t say anything, sometimes it just doesn’t — the refs are watching so many things in the game, sometimes their attention is not on that all the time. So when you’re loud and you say it one time, now they’re paying attention to it.” The Knicks guaranteed Arcidiacono’s minimum-salary contract this week.

Latest On Dejounte Murray

January 11th, 2024 at 2:28pm CST by Rory Maher

Hawks guard Dejounte Murray has a “substantial” group of teams interested in his services in early trade talks around the NBA, according to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, who hears from sources who say Atlanta seems focused on retooling its roster for a playoff push rather than rebuilding.

As Fischer explains, the Spurs continue to be linked to Murray, but they likely don’t have the types of players that would appeal to Atlanta in a possible deal. The Bulls discussed the concept of a Zach LaVine trade for Murray, but the Hawks didn’t show much interest in that idea, sources tell Fischer.

Multiple league personnel view the Nets as an “ideal” landing spot from Murray’s side of the equation, but Brooklyn hasn’t had serious conversations about Murray, and the team doesn’t seem to be actively pursuing him right now, says Fischer.

Fischer hears rivals view Murray as a “true plus” on defense, though his reputation on that end “may have been overstated” in recent seasons. Murray’s four-year, $111MM+ contract extension (it kicks in next season) is viewed as relatively team-friendly, given the 27-year-old’s talent level, Fischer adds.

According to Fischer, the Hawks have been aggressive in reaching out to opposing teams “with actual trade concepts” instead of “general interest in specific players.” Five teams are viewed as Murray suitors ahead of the trade deadline: the Lakers, Knicks, Sixers, Heat and Pistons.

Here’s more from Fischer on Murray and his potential suitors:

The Lakers continue to say they don’t want to trade Austin Reaves, sources tell Fischer. A deal for Murray could transpire if they include Reaves, according to Fischer, but L.A. may want Atlanta to sweeten the pot a little too in that scenario. D’Angelo Russell, on the other hand, has not been valued by rival teams in trade discussions.
The Knicks are looking for depth at point guard and center, per Fischer. While recent reports have indicated that Murray’s agent — Rich Paul of Klutch Sports — would prefer not to deal with New York, Fischer hears Murray is “in favor of a fresh start,” and those same reports said Paul would help facilitate a deal if his client asked for it. Still, Fischer wonders if the fit of Murray and Jalen Brunson would be any more fruitful than Murray’s pairing with Trae Young. The Hawks have valued Quentin Grimes in previous trade talks, Fischer adds.
The Sixers aren’t in a rush to move their draft assets, sources tell Fischer, but they have been “conducting due diligence” on point guards, though Wizards veteran Tyus Jones doesn’t appear to be on their list. Fischer suggests if Philadelphia and Atlanta do discuss Murray, a deal probably won’t come together until closer to the deadline. The Sixers aren’t expected to be trade suitors for Zach LaVine or Pascal Siakam, Fischer reports.
The Heat appear to be looking for ball-handlers, so Murray makes some sense, but Fischer hears the two Southeast rivals haven’t had any “substantive” talks after initial conversations.
The Pistons sit in last place, but their historically inept season could make them more willing to consider bold moves, Fischer writes, noting that Detroit is also interested in Siakam. Still, “smaller tweaks” are considered a more likely outcome, per Fischer.

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