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Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlantic Division

January 13th, 2023 at 3:10pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Atlantic players.

Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors

2022/23: $21,250,000
2023/24: $22,824,074 player option
Stock: Down

VanVleet was a deserving first-time All-Star last season, averaging 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.6 steals on .419/.401/.874 (.572 true) shooting through 50 games. However, he struggled mightily after the break due to a lingering bone bruise in his right knee, appearing in just 15 games with averages of 16.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals on .343/.291/.872 (.479 true) shooting. He was clearly hampered in the playoffs as well, posting similar shooting percentages.

In the offseason, he and the Raptors discussed a four-year, $114MM extension – the maximum amount they can offer based on his current contract. VanVleet felt he had outplayed his four-year, $85MM deal to that point, so he wanted to wait and see if he could get a more lucrative contract in 2023.

I definitely understand why VanVleet bet on himself. The former undrafted free agent has turned himself into a very good player through his hard work, tenacity and determination. He was also a major part of the Toronto’s title-winning team in 2019.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according VanVleet’s plan thus far in 2022/23. A significant portion of his offensive game is tied to his ability to space the floor, but he’s shooting just 32.9% from three, compared to his 37.5% career mark.

VanVleet turns 29 next month, is undersized, has played a ton of minutes the past few years, his point-of-attack defense isn’t what it once was, and he missed an average of just over 18 regular season games from 2018-22. VanVleet’s leadership and competitiveness are unquestioned, but there are a lot of red flags for potential suitors if he declines his player option, which seems likely.

T.J. Warren, F, Nets

2022/23: $2,628,597
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Warren is another player with an injury history, having appeared in just four games in the two seasons leading up to ‘22/23. While the length of those absences was abnormal, the 29-year-old has never appeared in more than 67 games in a season, averaging just under 55 games in his first six years, so durability has always been a concern.

As a free agent last summer, Warren wound up signing a “prove it” deal with the Nets for the veteran’s minimum, and it took him a while to return to action — he made his season debut on December 2. However, he has only missed one game since (the second of a back-to-back), and his production hasn’t disappointed.

Warren has always been a mid-range sniper, and this season is no different – he’s shooting 52% on those looks, which ranks in the 93^rd percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com. Through 17 games, he’s averaging 10.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists on .532/.353/.889 shooting in 20.4 minutes per contest.

As long as Warren stays healthy, there’s a very good chance he’ll get a big raise in free agency — his ability to score from all over the court is the most valuable trait in basketball.

Grant Williams, F, Celtics

2022/23: $4,306,281
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

Williams and the Celtics couldn’t agree on a rookie scale extension prior to the season, with the 24-year-old reportedly looking for more money than the cost-conscious Celtics were willing to offer. Betting on himself in restricted free agency has been a worthwhile gamble for Williams so far.

Although his averages of 9.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game are all career highs, those numbers don’t jump at you. But he’s a solid defender across the three frontcourt positions and is highly efficient, posting a .504/.404/.859 (.659 true) shooting line through 42 games (16 starts, 28.0 MPG).

If he maintains his top-tier efficiency, Williams might get more than he was reportedly seeking before the season, which was in the $14-16MM range annually.

Derrick Rose, G, Knicks

2022/23: $14,520,730
2023/24: $15,596,339 team option
Stock: Down

The former league MVP has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but he’s actually been relatively healthy in ’22/23. The problem is, he just hasn’t been effective on the court, averaging career lows in minutes (12.9), points (5.8) and FG% (.394) through 26 games.

Long a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau, Rose has fallen out of the Knicks’ rotation. His $14.5MM contract has negative value on the trade market, and his team option for ’23/24 is essentially a lock to be declined at this point.

Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround, the 34-year-old is probably looking at a veteran’s minimum deal in the offseason. Considering his age and injury history, even that might not be a given.

Shake Milton, G, Sixers

2022/23: $1,997,718
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Milton is an interesting player. He’s a subpar defender who isn’t a great athlete by NBA standards, but he finds effective ways to work around those limitations.

He impressed as a fill-in starter when Tyrese Maxey and James Harden were injured, averaging 20.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists on .542/.425/.967 (.652 true) shooting in nine games (38.0 minutes). While those shooting percentages are an anomaly, given his career averages (.457/.361/.822 splits, including .557 true), Milton is a patient and crafty pick-and-roll play-maker who has plus size (6’5″, 205 pounds) for a combo guard.

The former 54^th overall pick initially signed a two-way deal and then was converted to a standard four-year, $7MM contract back in 2019. He’s only 26 years old, and has certainly outperformed his current deal. Something in the $5-8MM per year range seems within reach.

Pacers Rumors: Power Forward, Duarte, Collins, Turner, Bitadze

January 12th, 2023 at 10:57am CST by Luke Adams

The growing sense among rival teams is that the 23-19 Pacers could be a buyer, rather than a seller, at this season’s trade deadline, writes Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports.

Fischer acknowledges that Indiana’s trade deadline outlook could certainly be altered if Tyrese Haliburton‘s foot injury causes him to miss an extended period. Fischer also adds a caveat to the team’s potential status as a buyer — the Pacers won’t be in the market for short-term veterans like Jae Crowder or Bojan Bogdanovic, but will have an eye out for players who could be long-term fits.

According to Fischer, power forward is the spot the Pacers would most like to upgrade. Indiana was high on Keegan Murray prior to the 2022 draft, and while the club was happy to ultimately land Bennedict Mathurin at No. 6, missing out on Murray means the power forward position remains a priority going forward.

If they want to get aggressive, the Pacers will have a couple extra 2023 first-round picks to dangle in trade talks, having acquired Cleveland’s and Boston’s first-rounders. Additionally, while Indiana viewed Chris Duarte as off limits at one point, multiple front office sources tell Fischer that the team has been more willing to discuss him in recent talks.

Here’s more on the Pacers’ plans:

Indiana has had internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing Hawks power forward John Collins, according to Fischer, who notes that Duarte and draft capital might appeal to Atlanta. The Hawks previously pitched the idea of trading Collins to the Pelicans for Trey Murphy and a first-round pick, Fischer explains. The fact that the Pacers could absorb Collins into their cap room without sending out matching salary could also intrigue the Hawks, who are right around the luxury tax line.
The Pacers and Myles Turner‘s representatives at CAA continue to discuss a possible renegotiation-and-extension for the veteran center, sources tell Yahoo Sports. Fischer suggests that the four-year, $133MM offer sheet Indiana gave Deandre Ayton in July would be an “obvious benchmark” for Turner’s side to use in contract negotiations.
Trade rumors involving Turner have slowed down as of late, Fischer observes. Teams like the Hornets, Pelicans, Mavericks, and Lakers have been viewed as potential suitors in the past, but don’t appear to be targeting Turner at this point. If the 26-year-old ends up back on the trade block, the Knicks, Raptors, and Clippers could be fits, Fischer writes.
The most likely Pacers center to be traded is Goga Bitadze, according to Fischer, who hears from sources that the club would be willing to work with Bitadze’s representatives to find him a new team. Daniel Theis is due back from injury soon and Bitadze hasn’t had much of a role even with Theis out. The fourth-year center also hasn’t been interested in accepting an assignment to the Pacers’ G League team in Fort Wayne, says Fischer.

Knicks Notes: Barrett, Quickley, Hartenstein, Grades

January 11th, 2023 at 9:00pm CST by Rory Maher

RJ Barrett returned to the Knicks‘ starting lineup on Wednesday against Indiana and did not have a minutes restriction, head coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters, including ESPN’s Tim Bontemps (Twitter link). The fourth-year forward missed six straight games after suffering a pretty gruesome finger injury which required six stitches.

Through 35 games (34.1 MPG), Barrett is averaging 19.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 3.0 APG on .427/.332/.762 shooting.

Here’s more on the Knicks:

Immanuel Quickley proved that he deserves a bigger role after strong performances starting in place of Jalen Brunson and Barrett, according to Steve Popper of Newsday (subscriber link). Thibodeau is a big fan of the third-year guard’s basketball IQ and defense. “The thing I love about Quick is that he’s smart, he’s very, very smart,” Thibodeau said. “He knows, he understands what he has to do to help our team defense. I think it’s his greatest strength. So he can play — even when he’s guarding twos, his size, because of his intelligence, he knows how to create body position. Very good with his hands, his feet, rarely is he out of position, and I think that does your defense a lot better. And he’s going to give you great effort all the time.”
Free agent addition Isaiah Hartenstein provided nice play-making for the Clippers last season, but the Knicks haven’t utilized him in that role. He said his first season with the Knicks has been “up and down,” writes Greg Joyce of The New York Post. “It’s been a little difficult, but at the end of the day, it’s about what the team needs,” Hartenstein said of adjusting roles. “Everyone sacrifices certain aspects of their game. Not everyone’s playing exactly how they want to play, but that’s every team. … Now I just kind of have to sacrifice one of my best attributes. But whatever the team needs. We got three guys that are very ball-dominant and I think that’s kind of how we’ve been winning. It’s hard to say much if we’re winning.”
Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News hands out midseason grades for the Knicks. Both Brunson and Mitchell Robinson received an A.

Sims Odd Man Out In Toppin's Return

January 10th, 2023 at 5:25pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Knicks forward Obi Toppin returned to action on Monday night after missing a month due to a leg injury. Jericho Sims was the odd man out of the rotation, as he never left the bench, Greg Joyce of the New York Post notes. Sims has appeared in 32 of the team’s 41 games this season. Toppin only played eight minutes.

Scotto’s Latest: Burks, Reddish, Quickley, Cavs, Hardaway

January 10th, 2023 at 9:14am CST by Luke Adams

Pistons guard Alec Burks is receiving interest from a number of playoff-caliber clubs, league sources tell Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.

Burks is having one of his best seasons as a pro off the bench for the Pistons, averaging 14.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 2.2 APG in just 22.0 minutes per contest (30 games). His 44.7% three-point rate is a career high, as is his 46.4% mark on shots from the floor.

Burks is earning approximately $10MM this season and has a $10.49MM team option on his contract for 2023/24. According to Scotto, the Pistons are a pretty safe bet to exercise that option if Burks remains with the team for the rest of the season, since it’s a team-friendly price based on his production and his veteran presence. With that in mind, Detroit could always trade Burks in the offseason or even at the 2024 trade deadline, so the club won’t have to simply settle for the best offer in the coming weeks.

Here’s more from Scotto:

The Knicks‘ asking price for Cam Reddish is a pair of second-round picks, league sources tell Scotto. The Lakers and Bucks are among the teams who have inquired on the fourth-year forward, Scotto adds.
The Bucks are also one of the clubs to inquire on Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley, along with the Mavericks, Wizards, and others, says Scotto. However, Quickley has been playing some of his best basketball as of late and New York’s asking price is significant (at least a first-round pick), reducing the odds that he’s moved.
Addressing the possibility of a Caris LeVert/Tim Hardaway Jr. swap between the Mavericks and Cavaliers, Scotto confirms a couple of concerns from Cleveland’s side first voiced by Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. The Cavs would be hesitant to take on Hardaway’s contract, which has two years left beyond this season, according to Scotto, and may be seeking extra compensation in any deal due to a belief that LeVert is a better overall player.

Barrett Nearing Return From Finger Injury

January 9th, 2023 at 6:43pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Bucks forward Serge Ibaka will miss the team’s road trip for personal reasons, according to coach Mike Budenholzer, Jim Owczarski of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. The Bucks faced the Knicks on Monday. Milwaukee plays Atlanta and Miami (twice) before returning home. Ibaka has appeared in 16 games this season but has averaged just 11.6 minutes in those contests.
RJ Barrett is “real close” to returning to action, Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau told ESPN’s Tim Bontemps (Twitter link) and other media members. Barrett hasn’t played since departing in the first quarter against Dallas on Dec. 27 due to a lacerated finger. New York’s next game is against Indiana on Wednesday.

Knicks Notes: Toppin, Barrett, Robinson, Hartenstein, Sims, Brunson, Thibodeau

January 8th, 2023 at 8:32pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Knicks forward Obi Toppin could make his long-awaited return to action on Monday night. He went through a full practice on Sunday and should be available to play against the Bucks, Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News tweets.

Toppin, who has not played since Dec. 7 due to a right leg injury, was medically cleared to return earlier this week, but needed more practice reps before the Knicks were comfortable reinserting him into the rotation.

RJ Barrett is listed as doubtful due to a lacerated right index finger, the team tweets.

We have more on the Knicks:

Mitchell Robinson grabbed 18 rebounds in 35 minutes, including eight on the offensive end, against Toronto on Friday. Robinson has noticed teams are trying to block him out with multiple players on the offensive glass and takes pride in that fact, Bondy writes. “I’m a dangerous man,” Robinson said. “You got to put three guys on me to keep me off the glass. That says a lot. I’m really becoming something.”
With Toppin ready to reclaim his spot as the backup power forward, Isaiah Hartenstein or Jericho Sims will be dropped from the rotation, Bondy adds in the same story. “Whatever we decide to do, that’s part of sacrificing for the team and putting the team first,” coach Tom Thibodeau said.
The Knicks have won four straight and Jalen Brunson has emerged as the team’s closer, according to Bondy. Brunson had 10 points in the final six minutes against Toronto. “What I try and do is try and relax and stay poised in those moments,” Brunson said. “Everyone talks about pressure and all that stuff, but just got to trust your mechanics, trust everything you do.”
Thibodeau has notched 100 coaching victories since being hired by the Knicks, Steve Popper of Newsday notes. “I’m glad to be a part of all 100. Thibs has come in here and created a great culture for all of us,” Julius Randle said. “He’s been amazing. The support, holding us accountable, the belief for us to win every night. I’m happy for him. We’ve got to get him another hundred.”

Knicks To Guarantee Salaries For Arcidiacono, Mykhailiuk

January 7th, 2023 at 12:04pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks will keep guards Ryan Arcidiacono and Svi Mykhailiuk on their roster through the NBA’s league-wide salary guarantee deadline, locking in their full cap hits for 2022/23, reports Steve Popper of Newsday (Twitter link).

This season’s salary guarantee date is January 10. A team wanting to avoid guaranteeing the salary for a player on a non-guaranteed contract must cut the player today so that he clears waivers before that deadline.

Arcidiacono, 28, has played a very limited role in just 10 games for the Knicks this season, logging only 25 total minutes. However, the sixth-year point guard is considered a Tom Thibodeau favorite — Arcidiacono also signed a pair of 10-day contracts and a rest-of-season deal with the Knicks last season despite not being part of the rotation.

Mykhailiuk has only played marginally more than Arcidiacono so far in 2022/23, logging 39 minutes across 12 games. The 25-year-old wing has made 6-of-10 three-pointers in his limited run, increasing his career rate from beyond the arc to 35.6%.

Both Arcidiacono and Mykhailiuk are on minimum-salary contracts and will count against the Knicks’ cap for $1,836,090 this season.

Although their salaries are now guaranteed for the rest of 2022/23, that doesn’t necessarily mean Arcidiacono and Mykhailiuk will finish the season with New York — they could be included in trades or could be cut if the club needs to open up a roster spot. The Knicks aren’t in any immediate danger of surpassing the luxury tax threshold and could afford to eat their modest full-season cap hits down the road if necessary.

Knicks Notes: Barrett, Reddish, Toppin, Rotation

January 7th, 2023 at 9:13am CST by Luke Adams

RJ Barrett has missed the Knicks‘ past five games with what the team has referred to as a laceration on his right index finger, but the injury was actually more gruesome than that, as Peter Botte of The New York Post writes. Barrett described the injury to reporters on Friday, explaining he received six stitches on the finger after it was temporarily dislocated.

“My (left) hand went into my other hand and my finger bent backwards and popped out of place, which caused the laceration,” said the Canadian forward, adding that he was disappointed not to be able to play in his hometown of Toronto on Friday.

“It popped out. I popped it back into place. I didn’t see (a bone through the skin). I was told after it was more like tendons, I guess,” Barrett said. “But yeah, so I looked at my hand, it was definitely a laceration right there. So, I immediately just walked out and got it stitched up. So, I still have stitches in right now … but oh, yeah. It was painful.”

The former No. 3 overall pick said he believes he’ll have the stitches removed within the next week and doesn’t think he’ll need much ramp-up time once he’s cleared to return, according to Botte.

Here’s more on the Knicks:

In a discussion about Cam Reddish‘s future in New York, or lack thereof, Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News tells Ian Begley of SNY.tv (Twitter video link) that he doesn’t envision a scenario where the forward reclaims a spot in the rotation. It’s probably unrealistic to expect Reddish to return more than a second-round pick in a trade, Bondy adds, suggesting that the best course of action may be packaging him with other players.
Although Obi Toppin was cleared to return from his leg injury earlier this week, he still has a little work to do before the Knicks feel comfortable playing him, tweets Fred Katz of The Athletic. Toppin was briefly assigned to the G League on Thursday to get some 5-on-5 practice reps, tweets Bondy, and head coach Tom Thibodeau said on Friday that the forward is “getting close” to being ready, per Katz.
Given that Thibodeau views Toppin as part of the Knicks’ nine-man rotation once he’s ramped up, Steve Popper of Newsday wonders who will be the odd man out, observing that there’s no obvious candidate for a demotion on a team that has won 12 of its last 17 games. “We’ll see,” Thibodeau said. “And again, there’s gotta be flexibility there. So we’ll get there, but obviously we want Obi back. The team has to be put first. Everyone has to sacrifice for the team. And for some guys, it’s starting; some guys, it’s shots; some guys, they may not be in the rotation.”
The Knicks have been so streaky this season that it might make sense for the team to wait a few more weeks to determine its direction at the trade deadline rather than making an early deal, Katz writes for The Athletic. New York has made trades far ahead of the deadline in each of the last two seasons.

Scotto’s Latest: LaVine, Mavs, Heat, Dort, Raptors

January 6th, 2023 at 4:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Rival executives believe the Knicks, Mavericks, Lakers, and Heat would be among the most likely suitors for Zach LaVine if the Bulls were to make him available prior to this season’s February 9 trade deadline, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype said on the latest episode of HoopsHype’s podcast. However, with Chicago still hanging onto the 10th seed in the East despite a disappointing first half (17-21), there’s no indication that the team is on the verge of becoming a seller.

Here’s more from Scotto:

The Mavericks owe their 2023 first-round pick to New York, but control all their future picks and could theoretically move one or more at the trade deadline. However, Scotto has heard the Mavs will be reluctant to give up a first-rounder unless it’s for a player they believe can help make them a title contender this season.
Rival executives are keeping a close eye on the Heat as a team that may be active before the deadline, says Scotto. After finishing with the East’s best record in 2021/22, Miami is just 20-19 so far this season and holds the No. 8 seed. The team never really replaced P.J. Tucker after he departed in free agency and should have some tradable contracts, especially after Victor Oladipo and Dewayne Dedmon become movable on January 15 (though Oladipo will have veto power).
Luguentz Dort is another player who will become trade-eligible on January 15, but don’t expect him to be mentioned in any rumors this season, according to Scotto, who says the Thunder view him as a part of the team’s long-term future alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Some people around the league believe the Raptors will be more active in trade talks beginning in mid-January, Scotto says. Toronto may have a better sense by then of which direction the team’s season is headed.