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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 19th, 2021 at 4:02pm CST by Eli Cohen

With the offseason trades of Chris Paul and Dennis Schröder last fall, the Thunder officially transitioned from playoff contention to full-scale rebuild.

The team added four first-round picks and multiple second-round picks through deals for Paul, Kelly Oubre (acquired from the Suns in the Paul trade), Danny Green (acquired in the Schröder trade), and other maneuvers, while adding one of the highest-upside rookies in the draft class, the very raw Aleksej Pokusevski, along with solid second round pick Theo Maledon.

An injury limited star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 35 games, while last season’s breakout rookie Luguentz Dort was also in and out of the lineup due to injury. Finally, the team made the decision to bench Al Horford for the second half of the season to allow the young players more minutes and opportunity.

All these factors contributed to the Thunder having their worst year since the 2008/09 season, when they went 23-59 and were rewarded with the third pick, which they used to draft James Harden. The Thunder will hope for similar lottery luck this summer.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

After making a surprise move to trade Horford, former undrafted center Moses Brown, and a 2023 second-round pick for Kemba Walker, the 16th pick in this year’s draft, and a 2025 second round pick, the Thunder are in an unparalleled position to make a trade, either for a disgruntled young star, or to move up in this year’s draft.

They have five picks in the top 36 of this year’s draft, including three top-2o selections, and have 18 total first round picks over the next six years. They also will be able to swap the 18th pick for the Rockets’ pick this year if it drops out of the top four (there’s about a 48% chance this will happen). Their own pick has a 45% chance of landing in the top four. It’s unlikely the Thunder will use all six of their picks in this year’s draft, making them a prime candidate to make more trades.

Walker, the lone veteran on the roster, stands as a clear target to be moved, either in a draft-day trade or as part of a separate deal in free agency. Walker is owed nearly $74MM over the next two years, assuming he picks up his 2022/23 player option, but he can still be a dangerous scorer and play-maker, despite a down year.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($5,988,000)
  • No. 16 overall pick ($3,2146,80)
  • No. 18 overall pick ($2,901,240)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,103,920

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rookie scale)
  • Isaiah Roby (veteran)
  • Kemba Walker (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Thunder have the flexibility to go in a number of different directions this offseason, but the most likely outcome – at least to start the offseason – is that they operate as an above-the-cap team in order to retain their many trade player exceptions, as well as the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

Williams, Roby and Deck all played well for the Thunder this season and seem likely to have their contracts guaranteed. The cap hold for the Thunder’s first first round pick is likely to be in $5.5MM-$8.3MM range. If the Thunder want to use cap space to throw a lucrative offer at a restricted free agent, they will have to renounce their exceptions.

Much of their cap situation will revolve around whether they’re able to unload Walker’s money to a team that needs a point guard — the Knicks stand out as one team with a need at the position and the cap space to absorb him without needing to send major money back to OKC.

The other big question facing the Thunder is if they can come to terms with Gilgeous-Alexander on a max rookie scale extension. If so, he’ll likely command a five-year, maximum-salary contract that would pay him a projected $167MM+ and would run until the 2026/27 season.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
  • Trade exception: $27,528,088
  • Trade exception: $12,800,000
  • Trade exception: $10,100,000
  • Trade exception: $9,590,602
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $908,960
  • Trade exception: $865,853
  • Trade exception: $850,600
  • Trade exception: $332,940

Footnotes

  1. Roby’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 4.
  2. The cap holds for these players remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Thunder use cap room, they’d renounce these exceptions and their TPEs and would only have the room exception ($4.9MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2021 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

Losing Jonathan Isaac to a torn ACL during last summer’s restart at Walt Disney World set the Magic back in a major way for the 2020/21 season, but the team still entered the year hoping to make the postseason for a third straight time. That wasn’t in the cards, however, as another ACL tear – this time for Markelle Fultz – and a handful of lesser injuries set Orlando back even further.

After a solid 6-2 start, the Magic cratered, falling to 13-27 by mid-March. That was around the time that top basketball executives Jeff Weltman and John Hammond decided a full-fledged teardown was in the franchise’s best long-term interests.

Nikola Vucevic? Gone. Aaron Gordon? Gone. Evan Fournier? Also gone. By the time the dust settled, the Magic were left with a few extra future first-round picks and an intriguing group of young players, with Isaac, Fultz, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, and Mohamed Bamba joined by Wendell Carter and R.J. Hampton.

After the last retooling of the roster culminated in nothing more than a middle-of-the-pack squad, Magic fans may feel a bit discouraged to see their team start building from the ground up again. But Weltman, the team’s president of basketball operations, is optimistic about the outlook in Orlando. He told reporters last month that, since joining the organization, he’s never felt more excited about its future than he does right now.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

The Magic’s previous rebuild stalled out in part because the club either whiffed on some top picks (like Mario Hezonja) or failed to properly develop them and ultimately sold low (like Victor Oladipo).

No team has better odds than Orlando to land a top-four pick in this year’s draft, so the club is in a great position to secure a long-term cornerstone piece, and it’s important to get that pick right. If the Magic receive the Bulls’ top-four protected pick this year (it has better than 70% odds to land at No. 8 or No. 9), nailing that second lottery selection would a big step forward for the rebuild as well.

Otherwise, the Magic’s offseason could look a lot like that of the Rockets and Pistons — like those teams, Orlando doesn’t have much cap flexibility yet and shouldn’t be a major player in free agency, but could be more active on the trade market.

Gary Harris‘ $20MM expiring contract isn’t necessarily a net positive, but Harris remains a useful role player and that cap number isn’t too onerous to move — the Magic could probably get a modest asset in exchange for him if they’re willing to take on multiyear money in return.

Terrence Ross, who has two years and $23MM left on his deal, is the more attractive trade chip, since there will be no shortage of teams looking to add outside shooting at a reasonable price. While his dip in three-point percentage in 2020/21 (33.7%) may hurt his value, getting a first-round pick in a deal for Ross isn’t entirely out of the question, especially if Orlando takes an unwanted contract back for him.

Michael Carter-Williams, on an expiring $3.3MM contract, could be a trade chip as well, though the Magic might want to keep him around as a veteran mentor for Fultz.

It’s also worth noting that Carter and Bamba will be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. I could see the Magic trying to work something out with Carter, like they did a year ago with Isaac and Fultz, but Bamba will probably have to show more next season to earn a second contract from the team.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($6,593,040)
  • No. 8 overall pick ($5,007,840)
  • No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,600,880

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mohamed Bamba (rookie scale)
  • Wendell Carter (rookie scale)
  • Gary Harris (veteran)
  • Terrence Ross (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Although the Magic only have about $94MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for the time being and aren’t assured of bringing back any of their free agents, various cap holds and exceptions will likely push them over the cap.

The team’s two top-eight draft picks, for instance, have a combined cap hold of over $11.5MM. The team also had a trade exception worth $17MM+ that it won’t forfeit just to claim a small piece of cap space.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5
  • Trade exception: $17,150,000
  • Trade exception: $4,272,060
  • Trade exception: $2,000,000

Footnotes

  1. Bacon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
  2. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Randle is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  3. This is a projected value. Porter’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 7-9 years of NBA service.
  4. The cap holds for Afflalo and Speights remain on the Magic’s books from a prior season because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

June 16th, 2021 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

When Troy Weaver took the reins as the Pistons‘ general manager in 2020, fans and observers were a little caught off guard by his initial series of roster moves.

The rebuilding Pistons signed non-star veteran free agents like Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee to multiyear contracts; acquired players like Dewayne Dedmon and Zhaire Smith, only to waive-and-stretch them; and gave up nearly all of their future second-round picks along with Luke Kennard and Bruce Brown in order to land a third first-round pick in the draft.

Weaver’s unorthodox approach to rebuilding – or, as he calls it, “restoring” – didn’t exactly pay immediate dividends, as the Pistons’ 20-52 record was the worst in the Eastern Conference. But the Pistons’ crop of rookies – Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Bey, and Saben Lee – had promising seasons, Grant thrived in an increased role, and Plumlee proved to be a worthwhile investment.

It may still be a couple years before the Pistons are back in the postseason, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the club’s future.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan:

The 2021 NBA draft is widely considered to have a top tier of five players, and there’s approximately an 80% chance the Pistons will secure a top-five pick, putting the team in position to select Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, or Jonathan Kuminga.

Drafting any of those players would be a great start to the offseason for Weaver and company. Landing at No. 6 would be a setback, but would still give Detroit a chance to add a promising prospect to its young core.

The dead money that the Blake Griffin buyout left on the Pistons’ books for 2021/22 will hinder the team from opening up a ton of cap room. But as we saw last fall, Weaver won’t hesitate to take some chances and make the most of what little space the team does have.

Still, I wouldn’t expect the Pistons to be quite as active or aggressive as they were a year ago, when they were involved in seven offseason trades and handed out multiple long-term contracts in free agency. Weaver will certainly continue working to reshape the roster to meet his vision, but I’d be surprised if the Pistons’ lottery pick isn’t the team’s most noteworthy roster addition this summer.

Detroit’s figures to focus on finding under-the-radar value and perhaps even using its limited cap room to accommodate a salary-dump trade that helps replenish the team’s collection of second-round picks. Then, the priority will be player development — the organization has already brought in John Beilein and is overhauling Dwane Casey‘s coaching staff with that goal in mind.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 1 overall pick ($10,050,120)
  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold) 5
  • No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Cory Joseph (veteran)
  • Rodney McGruder (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Pistons have $88MM in guaranteed money on their books and will retain Diallo’s $2MM cap hold as they look to work out a new deal with him. That puts the team in position to operate either over or under the cap, depending in large part on whether they want to bring back Joseph. The cap hold for their first-round pick will also be a factor — it could be worth $10MM+ if it’s the No. 1 pick or less than $6MM if it’s No. 6.

My best guess for now is that the Pistons will waive Joseph before his salary becomes fully guaranteed and perhaps stretch his partial guarantee across three years, maximizing their flexibility in 2021. That could leave the team with $15MM+ in potential cap space. But again, if Detroit lands the first overall pick and/or really wants to keep Joseph around, operating over the cap – and having the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available – is another viable path for the team.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Joseph’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  2. McGruder’s salary becomes fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  3. Cook’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 10.
  4. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Jackson is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  5. This pick could move up to No. 41 if San Antonio’s first-round pick moves ahead of Charlotte’s in the lottery.
  6. This is a projected value. If the Pistons operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM), bi-annual exception ($3.7MM), and a trade exception ($2MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

June 15th, 2021 at 9:19am CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets entered the 2020/21 league year with – at the very least – playoff aspirations. The team was coming off a disappointing second-round exit in the 2020 postseason, but after adding Christian Wood in free agency, there was a sense that if everything broke right, the roster still had enough talent to compete for a top spot in the West and make a deep postseason run.

Instead, injuries, COVID-19 issues, and James Harden‘s trade demand tanked Houston’s season almost before it began. The club managed to tread water for a little while, even after trading Harden in January, and was above .500 (11-10) as late as February 5. But injuries and a lack of star talent eventually caught up to the Rockets, who went into full-fledged seller mode by the trade deadline and finished the season by losing an incredible 45 of their last 51 games.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan:

Lottery night will be crucial for the Rockets, who have slightly better than 50/50 odds to keep their top-four protected pick. If that selection lands at No. 5, Houston would have to send it to Oklahoma City in exchange for No. 18. If it ends up in the top four, the Rockets will be in prime position to draft a long-term cornerstone for their rebuild.

Either way though, the Rockets will have three first-round selections, including two in the 20s. Whether they use all of those picks or end up trading one or two, general manager Rafael Stone will be under pressure to maximize their value. Virtually all of the most valuable assets the team received in the Harden deal were future picks and swaps, so Stone is betting on his ability to draft well and perhaps uncover some hidden gems during the next few seasons.

Without a ton of cap flexibility, the Rockets appear unlikely to be particularly active on the free agent market. Waiting until the second or third wave of free agency to hunt for veterans on bargains makes sense for the club — those vets could contribute in the short term and perhaps be flipped for assets at next year’s trade deadline.

Stone figures to be more active in trade talks, with John Wall, Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, and Danuel House among the players who should be available for the right return. However, Wall and Gordon are coming off injuries and have pricey salaries, which will make it tricky for the Rockets to find decent value for them.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • D.J. Wilson ($6,422,171 qualifying offer / $13,644,840 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $13,644,840

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 2 overall pick ($8,992,200)
  • No. 23 overall pick ($2,353,320)
  • No. 24 overall pick ($2,259,240)
  • Total: $13,604,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • John Wall (veteran)
  • Danuel House (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With only about $89MM in guaranteed money on their books, the Rockets could theoretically have a little cap room this offseason. However, the non-guaranteed salaries for Tate and Martin will almost certainly be guaranteed and the cap holds for their first-round picks will significantly cut into their projected space.

It’s possible Houston will make a trade or two to reduce team salary and generate cap room, but for the time being, we’re assuming the club will operate over the cap, which would allow the front office to keep its various exceptions and to retain Olynyk’s Bird rights.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $8,180,351
  • Trade exception: $5,019,920
  • Trade exception: $2,174,318
  • Trade exception: $1,780,152
  • Trade exception: $103,894

Footnotes

  1. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  2. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

November 13th, 2020 at 11:43am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Los Angeles Lakers.

Salary Cap Outlook

Five Lakers starters or rotation players hold options for 2020/21, while multiple others are free agents. As a result, it’s a little tricky to pin down where team salary will land. We can start with accounting for the team’s five guaranteed contracts and the cap hold for its first-round pick — those total about $70MM. A new max salary for Anthony Davis will come in at $32.7MM, so we can safely assume the Lakers will operate as an over-the-cap club.

If the Lakers need to give Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Rajon Rondo sizeable raises, team salary could approach the tax line, in which case the club would be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM). But if Los Angeles is willing to let a free agent or two go – or gets them back on team-friendly deals – then the full MLE ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) could be in play.

Our full salary cap preview for the Lakers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Anthony Davis, player option: $28,751,774
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, player option: $8,543,746
    • Note: Caldwell-Pope will reportedly decline his option.
  • Avery Bradley, player option: $5,005,350
  • JaVale McGee, player option: $4,200,000
  • Rajon Rondo, player option: $2,692,991

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Quinn Cook ($3,000,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 28 overall pick

Second Round:

  • None

While the Lakers retained their own first-round pick, their second-rounder (No. 58) belongs to the Sixers. L.A. originally sent that pick to Orlando last June in a deal for Talen Horton-Tucker; the Magic flipped it to Philadelphia at the trade deadline for James Ennis.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will Anthony Davis‘ new contract look like?

A year ago, there was plenty of drama entering free agency about where top free agents like Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant would ultimately land. For Davis, this year’s No. 1 free agent, that drama is essentially nonexistent — he forced a trade to the Lakers from New Orleans a year ago, then won a title with his new club this fall. Why would he leave?

Still, it won’t simply be a matter of exercising his player option to stick around. If he opts out, Davis can comfortably exceed the $28.75MM he’d earn by opting in. As such, he has already signaled his intention to turn down that option.

On his new deal with the Lakers, Davis will earn a maximum salary of $32.74MM in 2020/21, but the length and structure of that contract are still question marks. Although the seven-time All-Star could lock in nearly $190MM in guaranteed money by signing a five-year contract with L.A., I suspect he’ll avoid that option, preferring to maintain some flexibility over the next couple years — not so he can eventually leave the Lakers, but so he can maximize his earnings going forward.

Signing a two-year contract that has a player option in year two would line up Davis’ contract with LeBron James‘. It would also secure him an 8% raise for 2021/22, when the cap may increase by as little as 3%. That’s a realistic and potentially favorable option for AD.

The other most viable option would be a three-year pact with a third-year player option. That would ensure that when Davis gets the chance to opt out in 2022, he’ll have 10 years of NBA experience under his belt, meaning he’ll be eligible to receive a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. Even if the cap only increases by 3% annually for the next two years, that would put Davis in line to sign a five-year contract that starts at $40.5MM in 2022/23 and has a total value of $235MM.

Davis’ decision will ultimately come down to his priorities. Signing a one-plus-one contract and going year to year puts him in the best position to maximize his earnings and his flexibility, but it also means potentially dealing with free agency every year. If he doesn’t want to bother with that, a two-plus-one deal might be the move. If he really doesn’t want to be distracted by impending free agency anytime soon, a five-year pact is possible, but I think that’s probably a long shot.

2. Can the Lakers bring back all their key free agents while using their mid-level to add another productive player?

The Lakers are a lock to re-sign Davis, but what about the role players who came up big during the team’s championship run, like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Rajon Rondo? Both veteran guards are expected to turn down their player options in search of new deals, and they’ll definitely be in line for raises after taking up just over $10MM in cap space in 2019/20.

It’s hard to pin down exactly how much KCP’s and Rondo’s next contracts will be worth. I don’t expect major bidding wars on too many free agents this fall, but rival teams might want to put pressure on the defending champions by making aggressive offers for the Lakers’ most important free agents.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks estimates a starting salary in the $12-14MM range for Caldwell-Pope and $4-6MM for Rondo, so let’s project it takes about $20MM to bring both players back.

Even if we assume the Lakers waive-and-stretch Quinn Cook and don’t use their first-round pick, that still puts team salary above $120MM for just eight players, and doesn’t account for the possibility that JaVale McGee ($4.2MM) and Avery Bradley ($5MM) will both exercise their player options. It also doesn’t include salaries for Dwight Howard or Markieff Morris, who will both be free agents too.

Ideally, the Lakers would like to be able to use the full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception. It’s worth $9.3MM, which should be enough to bring in a valuable rotation piece this fall, since only a small handful of clubs have cap room. But L.A.’s team salary would be hard-capped at $138.9MM if the organization uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level ($5.7MM), so that doesn’t leave a whole lot of breathing room.

Still, there are ways the Lakers may be able to create enough flexibility to use the full MLE. If McGee or Bradley opts out, that would help. Jettisoning one of Caldwell-Pope or Rondo would too, though that’s not an ideal solution. The Lakers could also shed some salary in a trade, perhaps by moving Danny Green‘s expiring $15MM+ contract, but that may be a trade chip better used in a swap for an impact player rather than in a salary-dump deal.

The Lakers’ best hope of bringing back most of their key free agents while maintaining enough flexibility to bring in another good player with the MLE is that veterans are willing to take a bit of a discount to contend for another title in L.A.

If, for instance, Caldwell-Pope and Rondo only cost a combined $15MM and Howard is willing to sign another minimum-salary deal, that extra bit of flexibility could make a big difference for the Lakers. And if there’s a useful veteran out there willing to play for the taxpayer MLE rather than the full $9.3MM, that’d be a bonus, since the hard cap would be of no concern.

The Lakers’ free agency puzzle will be a tricky one to solve, especially since Howard and Morris only have Non-Bird rights, preventing the team from giving them much of a raise. But if one or two things break right for the franchise, the other pieces could fall into place in short order.

3. Could a trade package of Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, and the No. 28 pick bring back an impact player?

Given the construction of the Lakers’ roster, Green, Kuzma, and their first-round pick are probably the team’s most expendable pieces in a potential trade. Green and Kuzma are on expiring deals, and Kuzma wasn’t a particularly great fit alongside fellow power forwards James and Davis. Plus, a title-contending team probably doesn’t need to add a late-first-round rookie who would have a hard time cracking the rotation.

On the surface, it looks like a pretty appealing package for a potential trade partner. Green is a reliable three-and-D wing who has won multiple championships and has knocked down 40% of his career three-pointers. Kuzma is a 25-year-old who averaged 16.0 PPG in his first three NBA seasons and will cost just $3.6MM in 2020/21. And every NBA team would welcome a first-round pick that can be used to control a young player on an affordable contract for the next four years.

Still, there’s reason to believe the package wouldn’t be as valuable as the Lakers might hope. Green is now 33 years old and has struggled with his outside shot in each of the last two postseasons, forcing the Raptors and the Lakers to cut back his minutes in the 2019 and 2020 Finals. He’s also the sort of player who would primarily appeal to a playoff team, and it’s probably safe to assume not many of those teams would be looking to send an impact player to L.A.

As for Kuzma, he put up nice scoring numbers on the Lakers’ lottery-bound teams in his first two seasons, but had more trouble carving out a role in 2019/20. He’s not a good enough shooter (.308 3PT% over the last two seasons) to reliably space the floor, and he’s not a particularly strong defender either. He’s also headed for restricted free agency in 2021, meaning a team that acquires him would be responsible for giving him a significant raise a year from now.

The No. 28 pick, meanwhile, is a useful asset, given the relatively strong depth of this year’s draft class. But that late in the first round, it’s probably unreasonable to expect that pick to turn into anything more than a solid role player.

It’s not a package that would get the Lakers’ foot in the door for a player like Jrue Holiday, but it might be enough for a distressed asset. I think the Pacers would probably want more for Victor Oladipo, but if they’re genuinely concerned about his health and his impact on Indiana’s locker room, they could do worse than Green, Kuzma, and a first-rounder.

The Green/Kuzma duo has also been mentioned as the start of a package for Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan, which would be interesting. DeRozan, a Los Angeles native, would give the Lakers some scoring punch beyond LeBron and AD, and there’s enough defensive talent on the roster to cover up his shortcomings on that end of the floor. If San Antonio is pivoting to a rebuild, reuniting with Green while acquiring Kuzma and a first-rounder would be a decent return for DeRozan’s expiring deal, though L.A. would have to include a little more salary for matching purposes.

Green and Kuzma each played regular roles for this year’s championship team, and the Lakers have exhibited a knack for getting value late in the first round of drafts, so if they hang onto their assets, they’ll be fine. But if they make a move on the trade market, it’s a good bet that some or all of those pieces will be part of a deal.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

November 6th, 2020 at 3:28pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Miami Heat.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Heat’s six guaranteed contracts, Kelly Olynyk‘s player option, non-guaranteed salaries for Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson, and the cap hold for their first-round pick add up to approximately $86MM. That means the team could theoretically open up about $22MM in cap room.

However, there are a number of free agents Miami may try to re-sign, starting with Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder. Unless all those free agents walk, the Heat will likely operate as an over-the-cap team, with the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) available. That will allow the club to retain its lone trade exception, worth about $7.5MM.

Our full salary cap preview for the Heat can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Kelly Olynyk, player option: $13,198,243

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Kendrick Nunn ($1,663,861)
  • Duncan Robinson ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 20 overall pick

Second Round:

  • None

The Heat still have their own first-round pick, but traded their second-rounder to the Celtics way back in 2015 in a deal that also sent Zoran Dragic to Boston. That pick (No. 50) changed hands many times over the years and ultimately landed with the Hawks as a result of their Dewayne Dedmon/Alex Len/Jabari Parker swap with Sacramento at last season’s trade deadline.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, and the Heat’s other free agents be back?

Nearly half of the Heat’s 15-man roster is eligible for free agency this offseason, and while not all of those players need to be re-signed (Miami likely won’t push too hard for a new deal with Solomon Hill, for instance), a majority of them were key contributors at some point during the 2019/20 season. Dragic and Crowder are the two most important veterans in that group.

Dragic had a strong bounce-back season after an injury-plagued 2018/19, averaging 16.2 PPG and 5.1 APG on .441/.367/.776 shooting and taking over starting point guard duties from Kendrick Nunn in the postseason before going down with a foot injury. Crowder, meanwhile, emerged as one of the Heat’s most reliable contributors on the wing after being acquired in February, averaging 11.9 PPG with a .445 3PT% in 20 regular season games and taking on a number of big defensive assignments in the postseason.

Re-signing both players will be a priority, but the Heat are also prioritizing cap flexibility for the 2021 offseason, when they’d like to make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo or another star free agent. As such, the club will be reluctant to extend many – or perhaps any – multiyear contract offers this fall.

That might be okay with Dragic. At age 34, the veteran point guard is unlikely to receive strong multiyear offers from other suitors, and the Heat are in position to pay him a substantial amount on a one-year contract, perhaps even matching his $19MM salary from this past year. Even if Dragic gets two- or three-year offers in the mid-level range from other clubs, it probably makes more sense for him to accept a big one-year offer from Miami, then return to the free agent market in 2021.

Crowder may be a little trickier to retain. A strong defender who has the size and versatility to match up with opposing scorers, Crowder can also knock down outside shots pretty consistently, making him an easy fit in any system — and he’s four years younger than Dragic. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets three- or four-year offers from other playoff teams this fall.

The Heat could put a big one-year deal on the table for Crowder, but it might be hard for him to pass up long-term security if he gets an offer in, say, the four-year, $40MM range. Crowder’s free agency will depend in large part on what kind of offers are out there for him and whether those longer-term deals are lucrative enough to turn down a shorter-term commitment from Miami. I think he’s a little less likely to return to the Heat than Dragic is.

Of the Heat’s other free agents, it’s safe to say Udonis Haslem will be back on the team’s bench next season — at some point, he’ll probably do so in a coaching role, but as long as he wants to keep playing, a minimum-salary deal should be available for him in Miami.

Derrick Jones and Meyers Leonard played regular minutes for the Heat during the regular season, but saw their playing time dry up in the playoffs. Jones is still just 23 years old and may want an opportunity to spread his wings in a new situation, while Leonard has talked about wanting to play 20-25 minutes for whichever team signs him.

If they aren’t convinced there will be enough playing time to go around in Miami – and aren’t interested in signing for just one year – I wouldn’t expect them to be back. Jones, in particular, seems like a candidate to get a multiyear offer from a retooling team bullish on his youth and upside.

2. Will the Heat sign Bam Adebayo to a maximum-salary extension this offseason?

Avoiding multiyear free agent commitments this fall will be one way for the Heat to keep their cap as clean as possible for the 2021 offseason. Adebayo’s contract situation is another crucial wild card.

Coming off an impressive breakout season, Adebayo will be eligible later this month to sign a rookie scale extension which goes into effect in 2021/22. For players like Adebayo, who have already earned an All-Star nod and are likely to continue improving, a maximum-salary extension is virtually automatic. Teams prefer to get that business done as soon as they can, keeping their young stars happy and avoiding the possibility of an offer sheet in restricted free agency, so negotiations are usually quick and painless.

However, extending Adebayo early would significant eat into Miami’s projected cap room for the 2021 offseason. If we estimate a $112MM salary cap for ’21/22, a max-salary extension for Adebayo would start at $28MM (or more, if he meets Rose Rule criteria).

If Adebayo doesn’t sign an extension and instead reaches restricted free agency next summer, his temporary cap hold would be just $15.35MM. That means the Heat would have upwards of $13MM in additional cap room available. Once they use that space, they could go over the cap to re-sign Adebayo to a new contract that would be identical to the extension he could sign this offseason.

In theory, the Heat should have no problem convincing Adebayo to wait to sign his new deal. As long as the team plans to put the same offer on the table next year, he won’t lose a dollar by waiting. And his cooperation could clear a path for Miami to acquire a star teammate to play alongside him for the next few years, turning the club into a perennial title contender.

Still, a $150MM+ payday isn’t the sort of thing most players are particularly eager to wait on, especially if they’ve only earned a very small fraction of that amount so far in their professional careers. Adebayo may understand the Heat’s thinking, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be comfortable passing on life-changing money and risking the possibility of a career-threatening injury over the next eight months.

It’s a tough spot to put Adebayo in, and if he insists on being paid sooner rather than later, I don’t think the Heat will put up too much of a fight. Keeping their current stars happy is more of a priority than maintaining flexibility for new ones.

Plus, even if Adebayo’s new deal cuts into Miami’s cap room and prevents the club from opening up enough space for a maximum salary in 2021, that doesn’t mean signing a star is off the table. As we saw a year ago, when the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in a sign-and-trade without having any cap space available, the front office is capable of getting creative and making it work if an All-Star really wants to come to South Beach.

3. Could the Heat go star hunting this year rather than waiting until 2021?

Given how many of the Heat’s offseason moves hinge on retaining cap flexibility in 2021, it’s fair to wonder if it makes sense for the team to pursue a star player now rather than waiting for another year. Miami won’t have max cap room this fall and the free agent market isn’t exactly loaded, but the trade market is an avenue the club could explore. And securing another impact player now would free up the organization to extend Adebayo and make more aggressive offers to free agents like Crowder.

The problem with that approach is that there’s virtually no chance the Bucks will consider trading Antetokounmpo, the Heat’s top target. Even if he doesn’t sign an extension, the only way Milwaukee would become inclined to move him is if he asks out, and I don’t see that happening.

As long as landing Giannis in free agency in 2021 remains possible, the Heat won’t want to give up on that chance. Still, there are potential trade candidates who may be free agents in ’21 themselves, which could appeal to Miami.

If, for instance, the Heat could pry Victor Oladipo away from the Pacers for a reasonable return, they’d be in position to re-sign him in 2021 if Giannis isn’t available. And if Antetokounmpo is in play in a year, Oladipo’s expiring contract wouldn’t get in the way of Miami’s pursuit.

On the other hand, if Antetokounmpo re-ups with the Bucks this fall, the Heat would have more flexibility to aggressively pursue a star on the trade market without worrying as much about their 2021 cap situation or the length of their trade target’s contract.

In that scenario, Jrue Holiday and especially Bradley Beal would likely be among Miami’s top targets. Holiday appears to be far more available than Beal, but I imagine the Heat would be willing to give up a more substantial haul for the Wizards’ star — Tyler Herro may be on the table for Beal, whereas I don’t think Miami would put him in an offer for Holiday.

Unlike other teams that have to rely primarily on the trade market to add impact players, the Heat can afford to wait until free agency to make a play for a star, knowing that Miami is among the league’s most desirable destinations. With that in mind, I’d be surprised if the Heat are overly aggressive on the trade market in the next few weeks, especially as long as Antetokounmpo remains on track to become a free agent in 2021.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

November 4th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Boston Celtics.

Salary Cap Outlook

At first glance, the Celtics’ cap situation looks fairly comfortable, with about $95MM in guarantees committed to eight players.

However, that figure doesn’t include Gordon Hayward‘s $34MM+ option or Daniel Theis‘ $5MM non-guaranteed salary. Enes Kanter is also a candidate to pick up his $5MM option, and Boston would add another $7-8MM to its books by using its three first-round picks. With all those costs taken into account, the Celtics’ projected team salary jumps to $146MM+.

Boston could make some cost-cutting moves, including trading one or more of its three first-round picks. But this will be an expensive roster, and it seems like the Celtics will be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception (worth $5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Celtics can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Gordon Hayward, player option: $34,187,085
  • Enes Kanter, player option: $5,005,350
  • Semi Ojeleye, team option: $1,752,950
    • Note: Salary doesn’t immediately become guaranteed if option is exercised.

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 14 overall pick
  • No. 26 overall pick
  • No. 30 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 47 overall pick

After having held extra first-round picks for most of the last few years, the Celtics don’t have any surplus first-rounders beyond 2020. But they do have a pair of first-rounders besides their own (No. 26) this year.

The Grizzlies’ pick at No. 14 finally conveyed after being protected in the past — it was originally part of the deal that sent Jeff Green to Memphis in 2015. The Bucks’ pick (No. 30), meanwhile, was initially sent to Phoenix in 2017’s Eric Bledsoe swap. The Suns flipped it to Boston during last year’s draft in order to land Aron Baynes and Ty Jerome.

In the second round, the Celtics traded away their own pick (No. 56) as part of last year’s Terry Rozier/Kemba Walker sign-and-trade deal, so the Hornets have it now. But in that same trade, Boston acquired Brooklyn’s second-rounder (No. 47) from Charlotte.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Gordon Hayward be back with the Celtics?

Hayward’s contract with Boston includes a player option worth $34MM for the 2020/21 season, which means there are a number ways the offseason could play out for him.

If he opts into the final year of his contract, Hayward could simply return to the Celtics for another year before reaching free agency, he could be traded, or he could sign a longer-term extension with the team. If he opts out, he could sign outright with a new team, join a new team via sign-and-trade, or negotiate a new, longer-term deal with the C’s.

For most of the year, it looked like a no-brainer that Hayward would exercise his player option. He has no chance of matching his $34MM salary for ’20/21 on a new deal, and the list of teams with cap room will be extremely short. Opting to test the open market wouldn’t seem to make much sense for the veteran forward.

However, there has been some recent chatter, instigated by ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Bobby Marks, that Hayward’s agent Mark Bartelstein is quietly surveying the landscape to see what might be out there for his client. During that ESPN podcast, Marks suggested there’s a chance that Hayward and Bartelstein could go the Al Horford route. A year ago, Horford unexpectedly turned down a $30MM option with Boston and signed a four-year contract with Philadelphia that guaranteed him $97MM.

The opportunity to secure one last lucrative long-term deal was the right move for Horford, who was 33 years old when he reached free agency in 2019. Hayward is still just 30 and will probably be well positioned for a nice payday a year from now if he has a healthy, productive 2020/21 season, so there’s less urgency for him to seek long-term security this year — especially with so few potential suitors with cap room out there.

It’s also worth noting that when the Celtics let Horford go, it helped them accommodate the acquisition of Kemba Walker. If they’d matched Philadelphia’s offer for Horford, landing Walker while staying under the tax apron would’ve been a challenge. This time around, there wouldn’t be much of an upside to letting Hayward walk. It would help the C’s avoid the tax, but wouldn’t open up any extra cap room to sign a comparable replacement.

Taking those factors into account, I think Hayward is most likely to either pick up his option or sign a longer-term deal with Boston that reduces his 2020/21 cap charge. In either scenario, the Celtics could simply run it back with Hayward or explore their trade options (though they’d have to wait a few months if they sign him to a new free agent contract).

There’s no shortage of teams looking for wings with size, but the Celtics already have a couple good young ones in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, making Hayward somewhat expendable. If they can figure out a trade that sends out Hayward for a player who addresses a more pressing need on the roster – perhaps in the frontcourt – it would make sense to explore that possibility.

If Boston’s hypothetical trade partner is a team Hayward wouldn’t mind committing to long-term, a sign-and-trade would be another option worth considering. However, that scenario would require plenty of pre-free-agency communication between the two teams and Hayward’s camp to figure out the logistics.

2. What will the Celtics do with their three first-round draft picks?

The Celtics own the 14th, 26th, and 30th picks in what is considered a deep draft. If they were a rebuilding club, that would put them in a great position to add a couple potential long-term building blocks to their roster. But since Boston has title aspirations and a nearly-full roster, adding another three rookies to next year’s squad isn’t in the organization’s best interests.

As a result, it’s pretty safe to assume the Celtics won’t keep all three of those picks, or at least won’t use all of them on players for next year’s roster. That gives them a few options.

Trading one or two of those picks for a future first-rounder is one path the Celtics could take. They did that a year ago, sending the Ty Jerome pick to Phoenix in a deal for the first-rounder that became this year’s No. 30 selection.

Continuously rolling a pick over to the following draft is a good way to retain value and flexibility — if the Celtics want to fortify their roster at next year’s trade deadline, having an extra first-rounder available for a veteran could come in handy. Plus, after holding extra first-round picks for most of the last several years, the Celtics only have their own first-rounders beyond 2020. Flipping one or two of this year’s picks for future selections would help avoid having those coffers run dry.

Trading a pick or two in a deal for a veteran would be another option, but salary matching would be an issue in that scenario. The Celtics have no trade exceptions to take on salary.

Using a pick on a draft-and-stash player is one way to try to maximize the value of the pick without requiring a spot on next year’s roster. That approach hasn’t worked out especially well for Danny Ainge in recent years, but perhaps Serbian forward Aleksej Pokusevski (18th on ESPN’s big board) would have more NBA success than Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic did.

One of the most intriguing options for the Celtics – and one the team is reportedly exploring – would be to use all three picks in an attempt to move up in the draft to land an impact rookie who could contribute immediately and develop into a key future contributor.

Picks at or near the top of the draft are exponentially more valuable than those later on, so the Celtics shouldn’t expect to move into the top five by dangling Nos. 14, 26, and 30. Still, there could be a deal to be had in the middle of the lottery.

The Pistons, for instance, could badly use an influx of young talent and may be open to moving down to No. 14 if they don’t have a specific target in mind at No. 7 — and if they believe they can get good value with those two extra Boston picks at the end of the first round. It’s not clear which player the Celtics would be targeting if they move into the top 10, but Onyeka Okongwu and Tyrese Haliburton are among the mid-lottery options who might be of interest.

3. What will Jayson Tatum’s extension look like?

Tatum will become extension-eligible for the first time this offseason and there’s no question he’ll get a maximum-salary deal from the Celtics. But not all max deals are created equal. There are some details that the team will have to negotiate with Tatum’s camp that could be important down the road.

For one, the length of the contract will be critical. Of the three maximum-salary rookie scale extensions signed a year ago, two were for five years, while Pascal Siakam‘s was for just four. It’s safe to say the Celtics will push for five years without a fifth-year player option for Tatum, who would still just be 28 years old by the time a five-year extension expires in 2026.

The Rose Rule language in Tatum’s deal will also be critical. As we outline in our glossary entry on the subject, the Rose Rule allows a player with fewer than seven years of NBA experience to qualify for a higher maximum salary (up to 30% of the cap, rather than 25%) if he meets certain criteria. Making an All-NBA team allows a player to qualify for that higher max, and teams and players are permitted to negotiate various starting salaries between 25-30% depending on which specific All-NBA team a player makes.

Siakam, Ben Simmons, and Jamal Murray all negotiated this language into their extensions a year ago. Siakam, for instance, will earn 28% of the cap in 2020/21 because he made the All-NBA Second Team — if he had only made the Third Team, his max salary would’ve been worth 25% of the cap. Simmons, who had more player-friendly Rose Rule language in his deal, will also get a 28% max salary after making the Third Team. Murray wasn’t an All-NBA player, but could theoretically have earned up to a 30% max if he’d made the First Team.

Tatum is coming off an All-NBA Third Team nod of his own, and had a strong case for a Second Team spot. Will the Celtics be willing to give him a 30% max if he makes any All-NBA team again in 2021, or would they require a First Team spot to go that high?

While the difference may appear marginal on the surface, that extra money adds up over the course of a five-year deal. Based on a $115MM cap, a player who starts at 30% of the cap would earn about $33MM more over five years than a player starting at 25%.

With big-money long-term deals for Walker and Brown already on the books, the Celtics could also end up as a repeat taxpayer down the road, so if they’re able to save a little money on Tatum’s contract while still technically giving him a “max” deal, they might welcome that opportunity.

There’s little doubt that the Celtics and Tatum will hammer out an extension this fall, but if it doesn’t get done immediately when the new league year begins, it’s likely because the two sides are haggling over these under-the-radar details.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

November 2nd, 2020 at 12:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Denver Nuggets.

Salary Cap Outlook

Taking into account eight players and their first-round draft pick, the Nuggets are currently on the hook for just over $100MM in commitments for 2020/21. That’s won’t put them in position to create any cap room, but it should allow them to re-sign some combination of Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Torrey Craig, and Mason Plumlee without going into tax territory.

The full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.26MM) should be in play for Denver, though there’s a chance the team will be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM) if re-signing its own free agents gets expensive.

Our full salary cap preview for the Nuggets can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Jerami Grant, player option: $9,346,153

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

  • Paul Millsap (Bird)
  • Mason Plumlee (Bird)
  • Noah Vonleh (Non-Bird)
  • Troy Daniels (Non-Bird)
  • Torrey Craig (RFA; Bird)
  • Tyler Cook (N/A)
    • Note: Cook won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 22 overall pick

Second Round:

  • None

The Nuggets traded away both of their own picks in the 2020 draft. The first-rounder (No. 25) went to Oklahoma City in 2019’s Jerami Grant swap, while the second-rounder (No. 55) was part of a 2018 salary-dump deal that sent Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur to Brooklyn.

Denver did acquire an extra first-round pick to replace its own though, landing the Rockets’ pick (No. 22) in February’s four-team trade that sent Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez to Minnesota.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will the Nuggets re-sign Jerami Grant?

Grant’s time in Denver got off to a shaky start in 2019/20. In their 42 games through January 19, the Nuggets had a -5.6 net rating when Grant was on the court and a +14.0 rating when he sat, one of the most significant discrepancies in the league.

That gap wasn’t all Grant’s fault, of course — he was still scoring in the double digits and knocking down his threes at a 36.4% clip during that time. But he was inconsistent on the defensive end, as it took some time for Denver to figure out how to make the most of his versatility and pair him with the right teammates.

After January 19, the Nuggets’ net rating for the rest of the regular season was five points better when Grant was on the court. And he was a key contributor in the postseason, starting 16 of Denver’s 19 playoff games and averaging 34.4 minutes per contest against the Jazz, Clippers, and Lakers. The Nuggets couldn’t do much in the Western Finals against the Lakers, but Grant was one of the few bright spots — he averaged 21.0 PPG on 47.6% in the team’s final three games of the season.

While Grant’s first year in Denver wasn’t perfect, he had become one of the team’s most important role players by season’s end and showed why the club surrendered a first-round pick for him last July. The Nuggets didn’t give up that first-rounder expecting Grant to be a one-year rental, so there’s no reason to think the organization won’t make every effort to re-sign him this fall.

Grant will be an unrestricted free agent, which means he’s free to sign elsewhere if he doesn’t want to return to Denver. But unless the Nuggets are willing to work out a sign-and-trade deal, the 26-year-old’s best opportunity to play for a contender in 2020/21 will probably be with his current club. Using his Bird rights, the Nuggets can offer Grant a starting salary well above the mid-level exception, outbidding most rival suitors.

That doesn’t mean Grant won’t have other options, especially if he’s willing to join a lottery team. The Pistons and Hawks are expected to have interest and have the cap room necessary to put pressure on Denver. The Suns and Heat have also been linked to Grant, though both of those clubs would need to jettison some of their own free agents to create enough cap space for a run at the Nuggets forward, which could complicate matters. The Mavericks are also said to have interest in Grant, but they project to be over the cap, which could compromise their ability to put a competitive offer on the table.

It may ultimately come down to price. Bobby Marks of ESPN projects a $12-14MM starting salary for Grant, while Mike Singer of The Denver Post has estimated the forward could command upwards of $14-16MM per year. An offer in the four-year, $60MM range seems about right for Grant and the Nuggets. If another team is willing to significantly outbid that offer, Denver will face a difficult decision.

2. Will any of the Nuggets’ other notable free agents be back?

Besides Grant, a handful of other Nuggets will be free agents, including Paul Millsap (unrestricted), Mason Plumlee (unrestricted), and Torrey Craig (restricted).

None of those players are indispensable, but president of basketball operations Tim Connelly and general manager Calvin Booth have spoken about wanting to retain as many of their own free agents as possible. It’ll be interesting to see how committed they are to following through on that vow, especially when it comes to Millsap.

At age 35, Millsap is past his prime years and isn’t going to make any more All-Star teams, like he did in Atlanta for four consecutive years from 2014-17. But his value shouldn’t be understated. The big man has had a major impact on Denver’s defense since his arrival in 2017, fitting in perfectly on a team led by a pair of offense-first stars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. His toughness and defensive savvy have take some pressure off Jokic, and he’d be missed if the Nuggets let him walk.

Connelly has said he’d “love to see” Millsap spend the rest of his career in Denver and I expect the team to attempt to re-sign him. But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a rival suitor try to lure Millsap away with an oversized one-year offer in the hopes of shoring up its own frontcourt defense.

If the Nuggets are willing to match an offer in the $9-10MM range for Millsap while also re-signing Grant, it would push team salary close to the tax and would likely prevent Denver from using its full mid-level exception. Connelly, Booth, and company may have to decide whether bringing back both its top free agent forwards is more important than retaining the flexibility to use that MLE on an outside target.

Plumlee and Craig are less likely to incite a bidding war, but they each have some value. Plumlee has been a solid backup and won’t be as expensive this time around as he was when Denver signed him to a three-year, $41MM deal in 2017. Assuming the Nuggets can get him at half of his previous $14MM salary (or less), he could be back.

As for Craig, he was one of the team’s top perimeter defenders, but his offensive contributions were limited. With the Nuggets likely to explore the free agent and trade markets for a wing who has more two-way value, Craig could become expendable unless he’s willing to take a minimum deal or something very close to it.

3. Do the Nuggets have the pieces to swing a trade for a third impact player?

Jokic has emerged as a perennial candidate for the All-NBA First Team, and Murray – despite some frustrating ups and down during the regular season – showed during the postseason at Walt Disney World that he deserves to be considered Denver’s second star. He averaged 26.5 PPG and 6.6 APG on .505/.453/.897 shooting during the Nuggets’ 19 playoff games.

With a frontcourt and backcourt star locked up the foreseeable future, the Nuggets could badly use a wing capable of making an impact on both ends of the court. Will Barton and Gary Harris are good players, but they aren’t stars. And while Michael Porter Jr. has star potential on offense, he’s a liability on the other end of the floor at this point in his career and is unlikely to ever develop into a lockdown defender, even if he makes some strides in that area.

The Nuggets don’t have the cap room to make a splash in free agency this fall and there aren’t any logical targets on the open market anyway. So the trade market may be the team’s best bet to try to find a wing of that caliber.

One potential trade candidate, who has been linked to Denver in the past, is Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday. A defensive dynamo, Holiday is entering a potential contract year and the Nuggets are expected to be among his most aggressive suitors if New Orleans makes him available.

What would an offer for Holiday realistically look like? Obviously Denver won’t include Jokic or Murray, and Porter is said to be virtually untouchable too. Harris is the most logical salary-matching piece — from there it would just be a matter of how many sweeteners the Nuggets are willing to offer. Monte Morris and/or Bol Bol could interest the Pelicans. Denver also has all its first-round picks available beyond this season and could put more than one – including this year’s No. 22 selection – in an offer.

It’s not clear if such a proposal would appeal to the Pelicans more than something the Nets or another suitor could put together. If New Orleans demands Porter, would the Nuggets be willing to change their stance on the 22-year-old? I’m skeptical. As good as Holiday is, he’s made one All-Star team in his career (in 2013), is on the wrong side of 30, and could reach free agency in a year. If Denver is convinced to give up Porter, I think it’d probably have to be for a player a tier above Holiday.

It’s not clear if that sort of player will be available this fall though. Victor Oladipo is another target who might make sense for the Nuggets, but his health makes him a risk — I’m not sure Denver would want to offer much more than Harris and a first-round pick for the Pacers guard.

The Nuggets made it to the Western Finals in 2020 after forcing a seventh game in the Western Semifinals in 2019. They’re close to breaking through and acquiring an impact wing could be the move that helps put them over the top. We’ll have to wait see how aggressively Connelly and the front office pursue that sort of player this offseason.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

October 30th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Los Angeles Clippers.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Clippers currently have approximately $109MM committed to nine guaranteed salaries for 2020/21. That figure doesn’t account for potential free agents like Montrezl Harrell, Marcus Morris, and JaMychal Green. The team will definitely be over the cap and could approach the tax line if it wants to re-sign more than one of those free agents.

If the Clippers’ team salary increases significantly as a result of re-signing those free agents, they may be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM). If not, they’ll have the full MLE ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) available. The club also had a couple modest trade exceptions on hand, including one worth $3.57MM.

Our full salary cap preview for the Clippers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • JaMychal Green, player option: $5,005,350

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • None

Second Round:

  • No. 57 overall pick

The Clippers hung onto their own second-round pick at No. 57, but sent their first-rounder (No. 27) to the Knicks at the 2020 deadline in a deal for Marcus Morris.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Which frontcourt free agent(s) will the Clippers prioritize?

The Clippers’ stars remain under contract through next season, as do key backcourt contributors like Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams. However, many of Los Angeles’ most important frontcourt players not named Kawhi Leonard or Paul George are eligible to his the open market, creating some difficult decisions for the franchise.

Montrezl Harrell, coming off a Sixth Man of the Year award, will be an unrestricted free agent and is poised to be one of the most talented big men on the market. He’s still just 26 years old and has put up big-time offensive numbers since arriving in L.A., including an average of 18.6 PPG on 58.0% shooting in 63 games in 2019/20.

Fortunately for the Clippers, and unfortunately for Harrell, this isn’t 2016. There’s not an abundance of league-wide cap room available, and teams probably aren’t going to reward a non-star center with a massive long-term contract like the ones Joakim Noah, Bismack Biyombo, and Ian Mahinmi received four years ago.

That doesn’t mean that Harrell isn’t in line for a nice payday, but he’s unlikely to cost $20MM per year to retain. ESPN’s Bobby Marks estimated that the Clippers’ big man will receive a starting salary in the $10-12MM range. I think he could do a little better than that, but his defensive inconsistency will limit his value. And if the few teams with cap room use that space on other players, Harrell’s options will be extremely limited.

The Clippers’ decision on Harrell will be tied to which direction the team goes on two power forwards, Marcus Morris and JaMychal Green. Morris is an unrestricted free agent, while Green can also become a UFA if he turns down his $5MM player option — given the role he played on the Clippers, he can reasonably argue he outperformed that option.

Morris’ offensive numbers fell off substantially after he was traded from the Knicks to L.A., but he’ll still be a sought-after veteran this offseason — his toughness, size, defensive versatility, and scoring ability make him an easy fit on just about any contender. Marks estimates that Morris’ starting salary might be in the same range as Harrell’s ($10-12MM), though teams may be more reluctant to offer the 31-year-old a long-term deal.

As for Green, he’ll likely be the most affordable of the three, but getting him back on another $5MM deal might be too optimistic. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s offered a contract similar to the two-year, $16MM pact he signed with Memphis in 2017.

The Clippers, who already project to be over the cap without accounting for any of their free agents, probably aren’t enthusiastic about the idea of going into tax territory to re-sign Harrell, Morris, and Green without making any other upgrades. So something’s got to give here, and it will be fascinating to see which of these players becomes the Clippers’ top priority and which is viewed as expendable.

2. How will the Clippers address the point guard position?

A consensus emerged following the Clippers’ disappointing second-round exit last month that while the team had a deep, versatile roster, it could have used a point guard capable of assuming more ball-handling and play-making responsibilities.

When Leonard won titles in San Antonio and Toronto, he did so alongside Tony Parker and Kyle Lowry, respectively — there was no point guard like that on L.A.’s 2019/20 roster. Beverley is a strong defender but isn’t a dynamic offensive player, while Williams is more of a score-first player and Reggie Jackson couldn’t be relied upon for major playoff minutes.

It will be a challenge for the Clippers to find the kind of player they’re looking for on the free agent market this fall. Fred VanVleet will be out of their price range and most of the other point guards available won’t move the needle for L.A. — veterans like D.J. Augustin or Jeff Teague are solid but probably not the extra piece a team needs to win a championship.

The two most intriguing names on the free agent market are Rajon Rondo and Goran Dragic. The Clippers have already been linked to Rondo, who played an important part in helping the Lakers capture their 17th championship and should be attainable for a deal worth the mid-level or less. He’d be a nice fit — especially since signing him away from the Lakers would help weaken the defending champions’ roster.

As for Dragic, he’s less likely to be within the Clippers’ price range. It’s possible a multiyear deal could lure him away from the Heat, who figure to make him a sizeable one-year offer. But a salary in the mid-level range probably won’t be enough to do it.

If the Clippers don’t land Rondo and don’t like their other free agent options, pursuing a trade could be the way to go. Unfortunately, some of the veteran point guards who would be the best fits – such as Chris Paul, Mike Conley, and Lowry – are impractical trade targets for various reasons, including their mammoth cap hits. But there are more affordable players out there who could realistically be available, like perhaps Ricky Rubio, Dennis Schroder, and Derrick Rose.

3. Are Leonard and George in it for the long haul?

It was a major coup for a long-downtrodden franchise last July when Leonard chose to sign with the Clippers and essentially brought George along with him in a trade from the Thunder.

The moves instantly made L.A. a title contender and generated so much excitement that it was easy to overlook one key detail — the contract Kawhi signed was only for three years, with a player option after year two. That means both he and George will be eligible to reach free agency in 2021, just one year from now.

Technically then, Leonard’s and George’s futures are questions that will have to be answered next offseason and not necessarily this year. But with that uncertainty looming over the franchise, there will be added urgency in the front office to make sure this year’s roster has the right pieces in place to make a championship run. Another early exit in the playoffs could significantly dent the Clippers’ odds of keeping their two star forwards for the long term.

While the Clippers will do what they can to make sure Leonard and George are happy, the odds that the two stars will bolt in a year seem low to me.

They’re both Southern California natives who chose Los Angeles over every any other potential destination — Kawhi left a championship team to move home, while George has been talking for years about the possibility of playing in L.A., even as he signed a new deal with the Thunder. Plus, Leonard’s decision to sign a shorter-term contract can be attributed to his desire to ink a more lucrative maximum-salary contract once he earns 10 years of NBA experience after next season.

Even if the idea of Leonard and George jumping ship is a long shot, the Clippers can’t take anything for granted. But if they can get any sort of assurances from those two stars that they’re planning on sticking around for the long haul, it’ll make it easier for the team to bring in the necessary pieces without making any panicky, short-term moves.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

October 26th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Salary Cap Outlook

Taking into account their eight players with guaranteed salaries and the cap hold for the first-round pick, the Bucks already have $116MM in commitments on their books for 2020/21, so they’ll be over the cap.

There are some other wild cards to consider here, including Ersan Ilyasova‘s non-guaranteed $7MM salary, a pair of player options, and the Bucks’ desire to add an impact player.

I’d ultimately expect Milwaukee to be in the tax or close to it, limiting the team to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM). But if the club maintains some maneuverability below the tax line, it could have the full MLE ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) to work with.

Our full salary cap preview for the Bucks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Ersan Ilyasova ($7,000,000)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 24 overall pick

Second Round:

  • None

The Bucks’ own draft picks (Nos. 30 and 60) belong to Boston and New Orleans, respectively. The first-rounder was part of the package sent to Phoenix in 2017 for Eric Bledsoe before it was eventually rerouted to the Celtics. The second-rounder was one of several picks Milwaukee traded to the Pelicans for Nikola Mirotic at the 2019 deadline.

Milwaukee regained a first-round pick (No. 24 overall) in last summer’s sign-and-trade deal that sent Malcolm Brogdon to the Pacers.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Giannis Antetokounmpo sign a contract extension?

Antetokounmpo’s contract doesn’t expire until 2021, but the decision he makes in 2020 may have a greater impact and longer-term ramifications than any of this fall’s free agent signings. The two-time reigning MVP is up for a “super-max” contract extension that would start at 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap and would tack five years onto his current deal, locking him up through 2026.

[RELATED: Examining What Super-Max For Giannis Would Be Worth]

There’s no doubt that the Bucks will put that offer on the table, but after two consecutive seasons of the team finishing the regular season with the NBA’s best record and then falling short of the Finals in the postseason, it remains to be seen whether Giannis will accept it.

Antetokounmpo has said all the right things about his desire to remain in Milwaukee long-term and to win a championship with the Bucks. And while NBA fans have been conditioned to treat those sort of remarks with skepticism, there’s reason to believe Giannis’ comments are more genuine than most.

The Bucks’ star has spoken in the past about preferring to beat his fellow superstars rather than befriending and teaming up with them. He didn’t grow up playing on the AAU circuit and isn’t part of the Team USA program, so he hasn’t used those avenues to build relationships and plot unions like some stars have in the past. Additionally, Milwaukee is the only home Antetokounmpo has known since he arrived in the U.S., which means he’s unlikely to pull a Kawhi Leonard — Leonard, of course, chose to return home to Los Angeles last summer despite having just won a championship in Toronto.

Still, while there are plenty of factors working in the Bucks’ favor, there are also some reasons why Giannis may not be eager to immediately sign up for five more years in Milwaukee.

The Bucks’ last two playoff exits have been especially disappointing — the team blew a 2-0 in the Eastern Finals in 2019, then couldn’t muster more than a single win against an underdog Heat team in the second round of the 2020 postseason. On top of that, the coronavirus pandemic has complicated the NBA’s salary cap outlook for the next two or three seasons, meaning Antetokounmpo may be incentivized to sign shorter-term deals until the cap starts to rise again.

While it’s certainly not out of the question that Antetokounmpo signs a super-max extension with the Bucks this offseason, my feeling for now is that he’s more likely to put off that decision. He could sign the same five-year, super-max offer with Milwaukee as a free agent in 2021, and by that point, he should have a clearer picture of the NBA’s financial outlook. He’ll also have another playoff run with the Bucks under his belt, giving him a better idea of whether the club is a legit title contender. It’s even possible the club will win a title in 2021, which would presumably make his decision that much easier.

If Giannis isn’t ready to commit to a five-year extension, but doesn’t want the contract situation hanging over his head all season, a shorter-term extension – like the one Bradley Beal signed last year with the Wizards – is another option. However, that would close the door on the super-max possibility until he gains 10 years of NBA experience in 2023 and might mean accepting less than even the 30% max in 2021/22. In other words, if he’s looking to maximize his future earnings, signing a bridge extension a year before free agency probably isn’t the right play.

2. Is Bucks ownership ready to pay the tax?

As Antetokounmpo mulls a potential long-term commitment to the Bucks, it may be time for the team’s ownership group to prove it’s serious about investing big money not just in its superstar, but in the roster around him.

Following the Bucks’ elimination from the playoffs in September, co-owner Marc Lasry met with Antetokounmpo and reportedly assured him that the team is ready and willing to spend into the luxury tax to make upgrades.

The fact that Milwaukee signed-and-traded free agent guard Malcolm Brogdon to a division rival in 2019 rather than signing him to a new contract would seem to contradict the assertion that the team has no qualms about becoming a taxpayer. But it’s worth noting that the Bucks were said to have some long-term health concerns about Brogdon — it’s possible they simply didn’t feel he was the right player for that sort of investment.

Now that we’re a year closer to Antetokounmpo’s potential free agency, there’s more urgency for the Bucks to do all they can to ensure their star wants to stick around. And Lasry and his co-owners are positioned to have an immediate opportunity to back up their words with actions.

The Bucks only have about $114MM committed to eight guaranteed salaries for now, but that figure would surpass $128MM if Ersan Ilyasova is retained, Robin Lopez opts in, and the club keeps its first-round pick. And it would go even higher if the team wants to retain Pat Connaughton or Wesley Matthews, or bring in adequate replacements. Using the mid-level exception and/or making a trade that adds team salary could make the Bucks a taxpayer, especially if the threshold ($132.6MM) remains unchanged for next season.

The Bucks will likely become more comfortable with paying an annual tax bill – including potential repeater penalties down the road – if Giannis signs an extension and they know he’ll be around for the next half-decade. But they can’t wait until after Giannis re-ups to exhibit their willingness to spend big. Making upgrades and going into the tax for 2020/21 will show the two-time MVP they’re serious without necessarily putting them on the hook for future tax payments if Antetokounmpo ultimately decides to leave.

3. Can the Bucks acquire an impact player by building a trade package around Eric Bledsoe?

Free agency will be one potential avenue for the Bucks as they consider roster upgrades this offseason, but they won’t have any cap room available. And if they’d prefer to avoid becoming hard-capped, then using the full mid-level exception or acquiring a player via sign-and-trade won’t be options either. That means Milwaukee’s most intriguing path to acquiring a potential impact player is via the trade market.

The Bucks have a few pieces they could package in trade offers this fall. Bledsoe ($16.9MM) is the club’s most obvious trade chip, both because his salary is useful for matching purposes and because he has been an offensive liability in the postseason over the last two years, despite impressive regular season performances. George Hill (9.6MM) and Ilysaova ($7MM) are among the team’s other potential veteran assets, though Ilyasova’s expiring contract would have to be fully guaranteed if it’s to be used for salary matching.

Those three players are useful rotation pieces, but they’re not moving the needle in a major way for any team shopping an impact player. The Bucks will have to sweeten the pot a little, perhaps offering the Pacers’ 2020 first-round pick (No. 24), along with at least one of their own future first-rounders. Having already conditionally dealt their 2022 pick, a ’24 first-rounder is probably the best Milwaukee can do.

It’s a somewhat underwhelming package — if the Bucks go after someone like Jrue Holiday, they’ll almost certainly be outbid by other suitors. But an offer headed by Bledsoe and a couple first-rounders might be enough to land a player like Chris Paul (whose massive contract hurts his value), Buddy Hield (who may have worn out his welcome in Sacramento), or even Victor Oladipo (who didn’t look fully healthy this season).

I think Paul, in particular, would be a nice fit for the Bucks. The veteran point guard could share ball-handling duties with Giannis and would provide the sort of reliable shooting that Bledsoe hasn’t — he wouldn’t be a major downgrade on defense either. However, a September report suggested it’s “highly unlikely” that Milwaukee goes after CP3. His contract is apparently a concern, as is bringing a strong veteran personality onto a roster that already has a superstar leader in Antetokounmpo.

If Paul isn’t high on the Bucks’ list of potential targets, I’ll be curious to learn who is. It’s possible the front office believes only minor roster adjustments are necessary, given the team’s regular season track record since 2018. But adding a reliable play-maker and shot-maker to the backcourt would make Milwaukee an even more formidable postseason threat, and I’m skeptical that sort of difference-maker will be affordable and attainable in free agency.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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