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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

October 24th, 2020 at 5:31pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Houston Rockets.

Salary Cap Outlook

Nearly identical $41MM salaries for James Harden and Russell Westbrook will prevent the Rockets from opening up any cap space this offseason, barring a major roster shakeup. With over $123MM in guaranteed money already committed to just six players, Houston is in position to surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2020/21 unless the club cuts costs.

For now, we’re assuming the Rockets will be operating with the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM) rather than the full MLE or the bi-annual.

Our full salary cap preview for the Rockets can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • None

Second Round:

  • None

While it remains possible that the Rockets will trade back into the draft, they’re currently the only team without a 2020 pick.

Houston dealt its first-rounder (No. 22) to Denver in the four-team deadline deal last season involving Robert Covington and Clint Capela. The Rockets’ second-rounder (No. 52) went to Sacramento in a three-team 2019 deadline trade that sent Brandon Knight to Cleveland and Iman Shumpert to Houston.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the Rockets look like without Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni in charge?

All NBA franchises reflect the philosophies of the people in charge to some extent, but few teams have been more defined by the their leaders during the past several years than the Rockets.

Morey and D’Antoni have each played a major role in revolutionizing the way modern basketball is played, and the marriage of their overlapping philosophies in Houston has resulted in an extreme style of small-ball that features an unprecedented amount of outside shooting.

Before D’Antoni arrived in Houston in 2016, no NBA team had ever come close to averaging 40 three-point attempts per game in a single season. Over the last four years, the Rockets have done it four times in a row, ranking first in the league in three-point attempts in each one of those seasons and establishing new records on three separate occasions (after averaging 45.4 threes per game in 2018/19, Houston averaged “only” 45.3 in ’19/20, preventing a fourth straight record season).

With Morey and D’Antoni both now out of the picture in Houston, it’s fair to wonder if we’ll see the Rockets modify their style of play going forward. If so, it would have a major impact on the roster moves they make this offseason and beyond.

I wouldn’t expect any major immediate changes, however, for a few reasons. For one, Morey’s replacement at the head of the basketball operations department is Rafael Stone, a veteran Rockets executive who presumably shares many of the same philosophies as his longtime boss. He’s helping to lead the search for a new head coach, so he’ll – in turn – likely be targeting candidates whose philosophies match up with his own.

Additionally, the Rockets have poured a ton of money, draft picks, and other resources into building a roster capable of thriving by playing small ball and launching three-pointers. Adopting a brand-new style of play would mean revamping the roster in a major way, and team owner Tilman Fertitta has said there are no plans to take that path this fall.

Having said that, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rockets make some minor adjustments to their roster going forward. Perhaps they’ll be willing to spend a few extra million bucks this offseason to bring in one or two more traditional big men who can be relied upon to play rotation roles. But I certainly wouldn’t expect Houston to fall back to the middle of the pack in three-point attempts next season just because Morey and D’Antoni aren’t pulling the strings anymore.

2. How much is Tilman Fertitta willing to invest into the 2020/21 roster?

After coming within one game of the NBA Finals in 2018, the Rockets have seemingly been losing ground in their playoff appearances since then. They fell to Golden State a round earlier – and without putting up as strong a fight – in 2019, then were dispatched from the 2020 postseason by the Lakers relatively unceremoniously, dropping four consecutive games in the second round.

Still, it’s not as if Houston is in a downward spiral. After all, the club lost to the eventual champions this year and can bring back essentially the same core next season. The Rockets’ most important players – James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker, and Danuel House – are all under contract for 2020/21.

Unfortunately, that core won’t come cheap. The Rockets are already on the hook for more than $123MM in guaranteed money for those six players, including nearly $83MM for just Harden and Westbrook. Assuming the tax line remains relatively unchanged from the 2019/20 threshold (approximately $132.63MM), Houston projects to surpass it simply by filling out its roster with minimum-salary players.

The Rockets’ projections for 2020/21 will put team ownership to the test in a major way. Since buying the franchise in 2017, Fertitta has publicly conveyed a willingness to be a taxpayer if it means contending for a title, but the team’s actions have told another story.

Houston made a series of minor cost-cutting trades leading up to the 2019 deadline, surrendering cash and draft picks in order to sneak below the tax line. At the 2020 deadline, the Rockets didn’t have to work quite as hard to reduce salary, but the four-team trade that sent Clint Capela to Atlanta and brought Covington to Houston allowed the team to shed some money and get out of tax territory.

If the Rockets want to make any real upgrades to their roster and truly compete for a championship in 2021, they’ll probably have to be willing to use their mid-level exception. That will mean surpassing the tax line by a comfortable margin — or perhaps an uncomfortable one, if you’re Fertitta. If he was hesitant before about becoming a taxpayer, the Rockets’ owner certainly won’t be any more enthusiastic going forward, having had his businesses hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

But it would be counter-intuitive for the Rockets to dump their team-friendly contracts – like Covington’s, Tucker’s, or House’s – and the team probably can’t afford to give up more draft picks to entice a team to take Gordon’s long-term deal. Assuming Harden and Westbrook aren’t going anywhere, there just aren’t many avenues left to cut costs. So it’s time to see just how willing Fertitta is to spend on the roster.

3. How can the Rockets upgrade their roster around their core players?

Even if we assume the Rockets are ready to spend to add complementary pieces this offseason, the team doesn’t have a ton of tools at its disposal.

One of those tools is the mid-level exception, worth will be worth approximately $5.72MM, assuming Houston uses the taxpayer MLE rather than the full version. With teams around the NBA not expected to spend big in free agency this offseason, the Rockets might actually be able to get a pretty solid rotation player with that exception.

If they target a wing, players like Garrett Temple, Wesley Matthews, Justin Holiday, Maurice Harkless, and Glenn Robinson III could be options.

They might be able to find an even bigger bargain if they focus on big men. I wouldn’t normally expect guys like Serge Ibaka or Derrick Favors to be in Houston’s price range, but Texas is a favorable landing spot and it’s possible there will be an established veteran willing to sign a team-friendly one-year deal before returning to a more player-friendly 2021 market.

As for non-mid-level options, players who have signed minimum-salary deals with Houston in past seasons – including Austin Rivers, Jeff Green, and Gerald Green – might be attainable at the same price this fall. Rivers may even exercise his minimum-salary player option to return.

The Rockets also have a handful of trade exceptions on hand, though none are worth more than about $3.5MM. Those exceptions are essentially only good for players on rookie contracts or veterans earning close to the minimum, but perhaps an inexpensive player in need of a change of scenery – such as Omari Spellman – would appeal to Houston.

Of course, the draft represents the best opportunity to add young talent on the cheap, but the Rockets are the only team without any picks in 2020. Still, if there are teams looking to sell second-round picks and Houston is willing to spend a few million dollars, there could be opportunities to trade back into the draft and take advantage of what looks to be a deep class.

The Rockets may not have the flexibility to add big-time talent this offseason, but the club doesn’t necessarily need another star. Acquiring a couple rotation players who can be counted on to produce in the playoffs would go a long way toward keeping Houston in contention.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

October 21st, 2020 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Toronto Raptors.

Salary Cap Outlook

Toronto has about $85MM committed to eight players and a first-round pick so far for the 2020/21 season, assuming Stanley Johnson opts in and the team retains Matt Thomas and Terence Davis. That theoretically puts the Raptors in position to create cap room, but re-signing one or more of their own veteran free agents – including Fred VanVleet and/or Serge Ibaka – will likely eliminate that room.

We’re assuming Toronto will operate as an over-the-cap club. Depending on what happens with VanVleet, Ibaka, and Marc Gasol, the team will likely have the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) available. If re-signing those veterans gets pricey, the Raptors may instead have to work with the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM). Either way, the team won’t have its bi-annual exception, having used it last season.

Our full salary cap preview for the Raptors can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Stanley Johnson, player option: $3,804,150

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Matt Thomas ($1,517,981)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $725K.
  • Terence Davis ($1,517,981)
  • Dewan Hernandez ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 29 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 59 overall pick

The Raptors, who finished the 2019/20 season with the NBA’s second-best record, didn’t trade away either of their draft picks and didn’t acquire any extra selections for this year.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will the Raptors re-sign Fred VanVleet?

The Raptors haven’t been shy about signing their own players to lucrative new contracts and extension in recent years. Kyle Lowry has signed a pair of new deals since 2017, both of which paid him more than $30MM annually; Serge Ibaka got a long-term deal worth nearly $22MM per year in 2017; and Pascal Siakam received a maximum-salary extension last fall.

That pattern suggests that the team should have no qualms about locking up VanVleet to a new contract this offseason that fairly reflects his market value. But even if the Raptors feel that way – and I think they do – their long-term salary cap outlook complicates matters.

Toronto has long had its eye on Giannis Antetokounmpo, who can become an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and is close with Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri. For the time being, Siakam’s $31MM cap hit is the only guaranteed money on the Raps’ books for 2021/22, and even though the team will also have to account for Norman Powell‘s player option, cap holds for OG Anunoby and Terence Davis, and some other small charges, that leaves plenty of room for a maximum-salary player.

However, if VanVleet signs a pricey new multiyear deal, his ’21/22 cap charge would cut into that remaining cap space in a major way.

We have no clear sense yet of where the NBA’s salary cap will land for ’21/22, and Powell’s extension and Anunoby’s next contract are wild cards that could affect how much flexibility the Raptors actually have a year from now. But as long as Ujiri and the Raps still have an outside shot at Antetokounmpo, the sense is that the franchise will want to maximize its cap room for 2021 as much as possible — and that will affect how much the club is willing to offer VanVleet this fall.

Now, that doesn’t mean that the Raptors will only be willing to offer a one-year contract to VanVleet. The expectation is that Toronto will still be able to make a competitive offer in the four-year, $80MM range for the starting guard. Structuring the deal so that it declines in value in year two before increasing again for the remaining years would create a small amount of added flexibility for the Raptors in 2021 as well.

Still, with Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram considered virtual locks to return to their respective clubs, VanVleet may end up being the top free agent on the market this offseason. Rebuilding teams with plenty of cap room – such as the Pistons, Hawks, and Knicks – will be in position to top a four-year, $80MM offer if they so choose.

If one of those teams is willing to offer $10-15MM more than Toronto does, would that difference be enough to convince VanVleet to jump ship for a lottery club? What if one of those clubs goes even higher?

Would the Raptors be willing to increase their own offer and sacrifice potential a max-salary slot for 2021, figuring that if Antetokounmpo or another top free agent really wants to come to Toronto, they’ll be able to figure out a way to make it happen? And would the Raptors change their approach on VanVleet at all if Giannis re-ups with Milwaukee this offseason?

At this point, I think it’s probably more likely than not that the Raptors will be able to retain VanVleet rather than losing him for nothing, but the situation definitely isn’t cut-and-dried, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

2. Will the Raptors re-sign Marc Gasol and/or Serge Ibaka?

While VanVleet is the Raptors’ top priority in free agency, two of the team’s other top seven players are eligible for new deals this fall as well — Gasol and Ibaka.

It’s possible that Gasol – who will turn 36 this winter – will decide to return home to Spain, joining his old team in Barcelona. So far though, there has been no confirmation that that’s his plan, as rumors suggesting a potential reunion between the veteran center and the Spanish club were quickly shot down. So an NBA deal remains in play for Gasol.

As for Ibaka, there’s no doubt he’ll be continuing his career in the NBA. The 31-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, having averaged 15.4 PPG and 8.2 RPG on .512/.385/.718 shooting in 55 games (27.0 MPG). His ability to stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense should make him one of the more intriguing big men on the market this offseason.

If the Raptors bring back VanVleet, re-signing both Gasol and Ibaka may be a long shot. Unless at least one of the two accepts a team-friendly deal, Toronto would be at risk of going into tax territory by re-signing all of its key free agents. And given the way the NBA is trending, it doesn’t make sense for the team to invest big money in a pair of aging centers.

Re-signing one of the two seems realistic though, and I’d expect the Raptors to prioritize Ibaka. While Gasol’s box-score numbers undersell his value as a defender, passer, or screen-setter, he had clearly lost a step or two by the end of the 2019/20 season, and expecting a bounce-back year in his 13th NBA season is probably ill-advised.

The Raptors’ plan for Ibaka will likely be similar to what they did for Lowry — offer him a lucrative one-year contract that expires in 2021, allowing the club to retain flexibility for that offseason. Toronto should be able to afford to pay Ibaka a salary close to what he made last year ($23MM) without getting too close to the tax threshold. I wouldn’t expect any other teams to go anywhere near that figure, given the lack of leaguewide cap room.

If Ibaka does get a competitive multiyear offer from another team, the Raptors could shift their focus to a one-year deal for Gasol and perhaps use their mid-level exception to add more frontcourt depth.

3. Will the Raptors extend Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster soon?

The Raptors have one notable extension-eligible player this offseason, but a deal for that player (Anunoby) may not be a top priority. Although Toronto would certainly like to keep Anunoby in the picture for years to come, an early extension would eat into their 2021 cap space, and the team will have an opportunity to lock up the young forward as a restricted free agent next year.

For the time being then, the Raptors’ most important extension candidates are in their front office. Toronto’s president of basketball operations (Ujiri) and general manager (Webster) are entering the final year of their respective contracts, and signing them to new ones has to be a top priority for the organization.

The Raptors already completed a new deal with head coach Nick Nurse this fall, and a report around that time suggested there were rumblings this summer that extensions for Ujiri and Webster were likely to follow. Over a month later though, there’s still no update on either front.

There’s no reason for Raptors fans to panic yet. Interest in Ujiri and Webster from rival franchises has frequently been rebuffed, and Larry Tanenbaum – the chairman of the team’s ownership group – has vowed to get something done.

Still, fans in Toronto will be able to breathe a little easier if and when word of new deals for the team’s top decision-makers breaks. Ujiri and Webster have led a front office that has become one of the NBA’s best at identifying under-the-radar talent, and they’ve helped turn the Raptors into one of the league’s more respected franchises.

Five or 10 years ago, the idea of a player of Antetokounmpo’s caliber giving any consideration to making the move to Toronto would have been laughable. It’s still probably a long shot, but it can no longer be dismissed out of hand — Ujiri and his group have made the Raptors a team that players around the league have to take seriously.

That progress wouldn’t necessarily be undone if Ujiri and/or Webster leaves next year, but keeping the duo around would be the best way for the Raptors to continue building on that progress.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

October 16th, 2020 at 3:33pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Salary Cap Outlook

After paying tax penalties for five of the last six seasons, the Thunder don’t project to be above the luxury-tax line in 2020/21. Still, with $101.75MM already committed to nine roster spots (eight guaranteed contracts and a first-round pick), it won’t be easy to create any cap room. Barring a trade that significantly reduces salary, Oklahoma City will likely operate as an over-the-cap team.

In that scenario, the Thunder would have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM). If the team cuts costs and ends up using cap space, it would lose those exceptions along with a couple sizeable trade exceptions, but would gain access to the room exception ($4.77MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Thunder can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Mike Muscala, player option: $2,283,034
  • Abdel Nader, team option: $1,752,950
    • Note: Salary doesn’t immediately become guaranteed if option is exercised.
  • Deonte Burton, team option: $1,663,861
    • Note: Salary will become partially guaranteed for $1.1MM if option is exercised.
  • Hamidou Diallo, team option: $1,663,861

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • None

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 25 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 53 overall pick

The Thunder’s first-round pick this year is Denver’s pick, which they acquired last July. Oklahoma City’s own pick (No. 21) was sent to Philadelphia back in 2016. In an odd coincidence, both selections were traded for Jerami Grant.

The second-round pick is the Thunder’s own. Because they technically won a three-way tiebreaker in the first round (which the Sixers benefited from), the Thunder’s second-rounder landed at No. 53 instead of 51 or 52.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Is Sam Presti ready to launch a rebuild?

The Thunder finished the 2019/20 season tied for the fourth-best record in the Western Conference (44-28) and pushed the Rockets to seven games in the first round before being eliminated.

The team outperformed expectations this season, but there’s reason to believe that success could be replicated in 2020/21. Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder, and Steven Adams are still under contract. So are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Darius Bazley, and they should only improve going forward. Danilo Gallinari could be re-signed without going into tax territory. And with all the future first-round picks Oklahoma City has in hand, adding an impact player in a trade isn’t out of the question either.

However, there are signs the Thunder aren’t planning to go in that direction. The most glaring of those is the team’s inability to come to an agreement with head coach Billy Donovan, who elected to part ways with OKC despite receiving a multiyear contract offer from the club.

Reports at the time of the split – as well as comments from Presti himself – indicated that the Thunder and Donovan might not have been on the same page regarding the direction in the franchise. In other words, Donovan didn’t want to stick around only for the roster to undergo a retooling process, while Presti seems far more prepared to go in that direction.

With Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, and Bazley all locked up for multiple years, the Thunder have a promising young core and won’t require a full teardown. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if Paul, Gallinari, Schröder, and Adams are all gone a year from now.

Gallinari is an unrestricted free agent this fall, so if the Thunder don’t re-sign him, their only hope of getting value in return would be through a sign-and-trade. Schröder and Adams will each be on expiring contracts in 2020/21, but the former will have much more trade value than the latter, whose $27.5MM cap hit will make it tricky find a taker. Paul, who is owed $85MM+ over the next two years, is the most fascinating trade candidate of the bunch — we’ll dig deeper into his situation below.

While I expect the Thunder to explore the trade market for all of those veterans this offseason, I don’t think there’s any urgency for the team to make deals right away. That’s especially true for guys like Paul and Adams. If trade partners aren’t willing to take on their oversized contracts without draft compensation, Oklahoma City can afford to be patient.

Adams will be off the books in 2021 and Paul will be entering the final year of his deal at that point. It’s not as if the Thunder need to clear cap room immediately in order to pursue free agents. Dipping into their cache of future first-round picks just to get off Adams’ or Paul’s contracts a year early would be a misuse of those resources.

In essence, while Presti and the Thunder may be prepared to retool their roster, there’s no need for a full teardown and there’s no rush to clear out the veterans as soon as possible. This rebuild can be a gradual one, and fully bottoming out shouldn’t be necessary.

2. Will Chris Paul be traded this offseason?

Paul is one of the NBA’s most interesting trade candidates this fall. He’s only a year removed from being attached to two first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps in a deal for Russell Westbrook, but his value has increased since then for a few reasons.

For one, Paul had a terrific year in 2019/20, staying healthy all season and averaging 17.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 5.0 RPG with a .489 FG% in 70 games (31.5 MPG), earning his first All-Star nod since 2016. Teams with interest in acquiring CP3 will recognize that he’s still an injury risk, but the fact that he continues to play at such a high level is encouraging — his production is unlikely to fall off a cliff in 2020/21 as long as he stays relatively healthy.

Paul’s oversized contract is also one year closer to ending now. If a team acquires him and doesn’t get the sort of production it hoped for, his cap hits ($41.4MM in ’20/21, $44.2MM in ’21/22) will be onerous in the short term, but won’t ruin the club’s flexibility for years to come.

This year’s week free agent class also helps boost Paul’s appeal. There are two 2020 All-Stars who are free agents this offseason, but both of them – Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram – are highly likely to return to their current teams. Teams looking to add an All-Star caliber impact player may view a trade for Paul as their best bet to do so.

Paul’s fate will ultimately come down to what sort of offers Oklahoma City gets. The Thunder’s ability to extract a first-round pick in a package for CP3 – or willingness to include one themselves – will hinge on what the rest of the return looks like.

For instance, I don’t think there’s any way the Thunder will attach a future first-rounder to Paul if the Sixers want them to take on Tobias Harris‘ or Al Horford‘s long-term contract, or if the Bucks want them to take Eric Bledsoe and other salary filler. In those scenarios, OKC would likely ask its trade partner to include a first-rounder.

On the other hand, if the Thunder’s return includes a promising young player who could become a building block in Oklahoma City, the team would presumably be more willing to surrender a future first-rounder in addition to Paul. It’s more difficult to construct a hypothetical deal along these lines. If the Knicks were willing to include Mitchell Robinson in their offer, they could probably land Paul and draft assets. But I don’t think New York would do that.

Although Paul’s value is difficult to nail down, I don’t see the Thunder viewing him as a salary dump. If they’re going to move him this fall, they’ll want some combination of cap relief, a draft pick, and/or players who can contribute. If the Thunder don’t get any offers that fit that bill, they can afford to hang onto their veteran point guard for the time being, as they did a year ago.

3. Who will the Thunder hire as their head coach?

There haven’t been many updates out of Oklahoma City on the team’s head coaching search since Donovan’s departure more than a month ago. I imagine the Thunder began the process of seeking a replacement at some point since then, so the radio silence is likely by design rather than an indication of inactivity.

Even without any leaks, we can make a few assumptions about the Thunder’s search.

For instance, based on the divide between Donovan and the organization, it’s a good bet that the club will be seeking a coach who’s comfortable with the idea of overseeing a rebuild.

Additionally, given the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, I can’t see Oklahoma City paying big money to a head coach if the club doesn’t expect to be contending in the short term.

Those clues point to the Thunder targeting an up-and-coming candidate who may not have any previous head coaching experience. That lack of experience should keep his – or her – price tag in check. Still, the Thunder will want someone who has spent some time on NBA staffs so that they’re not hiring an entirely unknown commodity.

That profile fits with the few names we’ve heard linked to the job. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst initially identified Timberwolves associate head coach David Vanterpool, Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin and Spurs assistant Will Hardy as contenders, while Shams Charania of The Athletic later confirmed OKC’s interest in Hardy and added Thunder assistant Brian Keefe to the list of candidates.

Griffin and Keefe each have more than a decade of experience as NBA assistants under their belts and have worked for at least three teams apiece during that time. Vanterpool began his coaching career as a CSKA Moscow assistant and has worked on the Blazers’ and Wolves’ staffs since returning stateside in 2012. Hardy has only worked for the Spurs, but has made an impressive rise through the ranks since joining the team’s video department in 2011 and is now one of Gregg Popovich‘s top lieutenants.

It’s possible the Thunder’s list of coaching candidates will continue to grow in the coming days or weeks. Based on what we know so far though, it sounds like the club will be targeting a veteran assistant who has proven his bona fides at the NBA level and is ready for a promotion.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview Series

October 14th, 2020 at 5:02pm CST by Luke Adams

In advance of the NBA’s 2020 draft and free agent period, Hoops Rumors is previewing the coming offseason for all 30 teams, looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall.

Our Offseason Preview articles are linked below, sorted by conference and division. This list, which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu, will continue to be updated as we complete our previews for all 30 teams.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

October 13th, 2020 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Indiana Pacers.

Salary Cap Outlook

After using their cap room last summer to sign or acquire multiyear, eight-figure contracts for Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, and Jeremy Lamb, the Pacers will have no space available this offseason.

With nearly $123MM in guaranteed money committed to 11 players so far, Indiana may not be in position to use its full mid-level exception without going into tax territory. The club is more likely to make use of the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Pacers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • None

Second Round:

  • No. 54 overall pick

The Pacers have their own second-round pick, but traded away their first-rounder (No. 24) to Milwaukee in last year’s Malcolm Brogdon sign-and-trade.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Has Victor Oladipo played his last game for the Pacers?

Oladipo will be entering a contract year in 2020/21 and he’s not a lock to remain in Indiana beyond his current deal. Ever since a spring report suggested that teams were monitoring Oladipo’s situation with the Pacers, rumors about his future have popped up more and more frequently.

The Heat were identified in the summer as a potential threat to lure Oladipo away from Indiana, with reports at the time suggesting the two-time All-Star would be prioritizing two things on his next contract: maximizing his earnings and putting himself in position to win a championship.

The unstated implication? If Oladipo decided the Pacers weren’t on track to become a legit title contender, it might make sense for him to push for a trade to a preferred destination sooner rather than later, since that would put him in position to get the best possible offer from that team in free agency (when he becomes a free agent, his current team can offer him more years and more money than rival suitors).

As a result of those earlier rumors, it didn’t come as a major surprise when a September report indicated Oladipo was “looking to move on” from Indiana or when a second report confirmed that he’s a candidate to be dealt this offseason. The 28-year-old has since attempted to downplay that chatter, but at this point it would be a bit surprising if Oladipo remains with the Pacers through 2020/21 and then signs a long-term deal with the franchise.

Throughout the process, the Pacers have stated that retaining Oladipo is a priority and have shown signals that they’ll do all they can to make it happen. They were even willing to pay him the remainder of his 2019/20 salary when he initially planned on opting out of the summer restart to focus on his health, despite the fact that he’d received medical clearance from doctors.

But if Indiana knows Oladipo plans to leave in free agency in 2021, it’s in the organization’s best interests to see what it can get for him before then rather to resign itself to losing him for nothing. The Pacers’ willingness to take that route with Paul George was the reason the team landed Oladipo (and fellow All-Star Domantas Sabonis) in the first place.

The challenge for the Pacers if they explore the trade market for an Oladipo deal will be finding a trade partner willing to give up a package that reflects the guard’s pre-injury value. Since Oladipo returned from his torn quad tendon in January, he hasn’t quite looked like the same player — in 19 games this season, he averaged just 14.5 PPG on .394/.317/.814 shooting.

Questions surrounding Oladipo’s health and production going forward will complicate any trade talks, especially if suitors believe they’ll have a shot to sign him outright in free agency a year from now. As such, an offseason trade definitely isn’t a sure thing.

In fact, sticking with Oladipo and hoping he looks like his old self to start next season may end up being Indiana’s best strategy. If Oladipo alleviates his health concerns in the first half, the Pacers could potentially extract more value for him at the trade deadline than they could this offseason — especially if multiple contenders view him as a missing piece for the stretch run.

2. Will the Pacers break up the Domantas Sabonis/Myles Turner frontcourt?

Since acquiring Sabonis in 2017, the Pacers have stubbornly insisted that he and Turner are capable of sharing the frontcourt in Indiana. They’re not necessarily wrong, but after three years of experimentation, it seems obvious that – despite some modest success – the two big men don’t exactly fit together seamlessly.

Two developments during the 2019/20 season may help steer the Pacers toward the idea of trading Turner.

The first was Sabonis’ emergence as an All-Star caliber player. He enjoyed a breakout year, averaging 18.5 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 5.0 APG on 54.0% shooting in 62 games (34.8 MPG) and was badly missed during the restart when he was sidelined by a foot injury. He was perhaps Indiana’s best player in ’19/20 and is about to begin a team-friendly four-year, $75MM deal. It makes sense for the Pacers to keep him.

The second development was the emergence of T.J. Warren as one of the NBA’s most impressive scorers this summer. Warren’s numbers during the seeding games (31.0 PPG) almost definitely aren’t sustainable, but the fact that he enjoyed his best stretch of the season while serving as the team’s de facto power forward was eye-opening. He might not have been in position to produce like that Walt Disney World if both Sabonis and Turner had been healthy and in the starting lineup.

Turner is one of the NBA’s best shot-blockers and has knocked down 35.9% of his three-pointers over the last four seasons. He’s just 24 years old and he still has three years and $54MM left on his contract. That’s a very fair price for a two-way center entering his prime. He’d be a tremendous trade chip if Indiana makes him available — I wouldn’t even be shocked if the Pacers get a stronger offer for him than for Oladipo.

Cashing in Turner for 50 cents on the dollar because of the positional overlap with Sabonis would be a mistake, but there’s no indication the Pacers will make such a deal. If they do move Turner, they’ll do so with an eye toward acquiring an impact player who better suits their roster. I’ll be very interested to see if they can find that sort of trade this fall.

3. Who will the Pacers hire as their head coach?

Nate McMillan‘s ouster in Indiana this summer came as a bit of a surprise, since the veteran head coach had led the Pacers to a top-four seed in the East despite a handful of injury issues this season. Two key factors played a role in the front office’s decision — McMillan’s playoff record and his offensive style.

The Pacers are reportedly seeking a head coach who can modernize the club’s offense and get the team over the hump in the postseason after McMillan lost 16 of 19 playoff contests during his four-year tenure.

President of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard and the front office know they’ll have to hit a home run after parting ways with a popular head coach who had outperformed expectations during the regular season. All indications are that the organization is doing a ton of homework in an effort to make the right hire, having reportedly spoken to more than 20 candidates so far during the search process.

Indiana’s pool of contenders ranges from experienced former head coaches such as Mike D’Antoni, Mike Brown, and Dave Joerger to up-and-coming assistants like Darvin Ham, Ime Udoka, and David Vanterpool to a potential first-timer like Chauncey Billups.

Although McMillan’s dismissal wasn’t entirely expected, the Pacers generally don’t have a quick trigger finger when it comes to their head coaches — the team’s four most recent coaches have each served for four or more years. This is also the first time since his 2017 promotion that Pritchard will be responsible for a head coaching hire, so he’ll be looking for someone who can lead the franchise for years to come. It will be fascinating to see which direction the club goes.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

October 9th, 2020 at 1:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Utah Jazz.

Salary Cap Outlook

The only way the Jazz could realistically create cap space this offseason without cost-cutting roster moves would be if Mike Conley opts out of his $34.5MM salary for 2020/21. That won’t happen, so it’s a safe bet that Utah will operate as an over-the-cap club.

The Jazz’ ability to use their full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) may hinge on how they handle Jordan Clarkson‘s free agency, since a new deal for Clarkson would move team salary much closer to the tax. In that scenario, they may be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Jazz can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Mike Conley, early termination option: $34,502,132

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 23 overall pick

Second Round:

  • None

The Jazz could have picked as high as No. 21 in the first round based on their record, which put them in a tie with Houston and Oklahoma City. However, Utah lost the three-way tiebreaker and ended up at No. 23 instead.

Utah’s second-round pick (No. 51) was originally traded to Cleveland during the 2018/19 season for Kyle Korver. It changed hands three more times in subsequent deals, ultimately ending up with Golden State.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Donovan Mitchell sign a contract extension this offseason?

Both Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be eligible to sign new contracts this offseason, but they aren’t necessarily equally likely to get extensions.

Mitchell’s case is the simpler one. Having been drafted in the 2017 lottery, he’s entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, making him eligible for a rookie scale extension. If he signs a new contract, it would go into effect during the 2021/22 season and could have a starting salary worth up to 25% of that year’s cap — or even 30% of the cap, if he makes an All-NBA team next season.

It seems almost certain that Utah will offer Mitchell a maximum-salary deal sooner rather than later. In the unlikely event that the Jazz were still on the fence about that decision, Mitchell’s performance in seven playoff games this season certainly helped seal the deal — he couldn’t quite lead them to a series win, but averaged 36.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.9 APG with a .529/.516/.948 shooting line.

While negotiations between the two sides should be pretty simple, they’ll need to agree on possible Rose Rule language in an extension. That shouldn’t be too much of a challenge, especially if they use last year’s Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray rookie scale extensions as points of comparison.

The language in Simmons’ agreement with Philadelphia boosted his starting salary to 28% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA nod, and that figure would have increased to 30% if he made the First Team. The language in Murray’s deal with Denver – which included a salary at 26% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA spot – was similar, albeit slightly more team-friendly.

The Jazz and Mitchell should be able to work out something in that same neighborhood, rewarding him with a slightly more lucrative long-term contract if he makes the leap to become an All-NBA player in 2020/21.

2. Will Rudy Gobert sign a new extension of his own this offseason?

Gobert’s extension eligibility will create a trickier situation for the Jazz. At age 28, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year is four years older than Mitchell and it’s unclear whether how much room his game still has to grow, so the club will have to keep that in mind as it considers a new long-term investment.

Mitchell’s next deal will also be a little more cost-controlled than Gobert’s could be. Even with an All-NBA berth next season, Mitchell can’t sign a rookie scale extension exceeding 30% of the cap. Due to Gobert’s All-NBA nods and DPOY awards, he has qualified for a veteran extension that can be worth up to 35% of the cap in 2021/22.

That may not seem like a substantial difference, but it adds up over the course of four or five years. If we assume the cap will be $115MM in 2021/22, an extension starting at 35% of the cap would be worth $40.25MM in year one and $233.45MM over five seasons. A 30% deal would start at $34.5MM and would be worth $200.1MM over five years.

Now, just because Gobert has qualified for a super-max extension doesn’t mean that the Jazz have to offer him one. Standard veteran extension rules would still allow Utah to offer Gobert up to $142.6MM on a four-year extension this offseason and that might be a more appropriate price for a player who is elite defensively but will never be nearly as dangerous on the offensive end.

Still, there are questions that must be addressed here. After two consecutive first-round playoff exits, are the Jazz still all-in on the Gobert/Mitchell duo? Because signing both players to lucrative long-term extensions will eat up a huge portion of the franchise’s cap room for years to come.

From Gobert’s perspective, would an extension offer below the super-max appeal to him? If he doesn’t get a super-max offer, perhaps he’d rather just wait for free agency in 2021 to sign a new deal, giving himself the chance to see what other opportunities are out there. We’ve seen some instances in the past where a team’s unwillingness to put a super-max on the table ultimately led to the player’s exit (ie. Jimmy Butler in Chicago or Kemba Walker in Charlotte).

And while it seemed by the end of Utah’s run in Orlando that any issues were long behind them, it’s worth noting that we’re only six months removed from reports about Mitchell and Gobert working on repairing their relationship after their positive coronavirus tests left them upset at one another. Are they ready to sign up for another five years of playing alongside one another?

I don’t expect the Jazz to seriously consider the idea of trading Gobert this fall. But it will be worth keeping a close eye on extension talks between the two sides — if they don’t work something out, the standout center will be on track to join a star-studded 2021 free agent class, with plenty of teams around the NBA expected to have cap room available.

3. Will the Jazz re-sign Jordan Clarkson?

Barring a shocking opt-out from Mike Conley, Clarkson will be the only key member of the Jazz rotation whose contract is expiring this offseason. His free agency creates a potential dilemma for the franchise.

Acquired last December in a trade with Cleveland, Clarkson immediately added some scoring punch to Utah’s second unit, enjoying one of the best runs of his career in 42 games with the Jazz. He posted 15.6 PPG on .462/.366/.785 shooting during that time, and his numbers didn’t fall off in the postseason either — he scored 16.7 PPG on .464/.347/1.000 shooting in seven playoff contests vs. Denver.

Clarkson’s ability to create his own shot and put the ball in the basket was a welcome addition to a Jazz roster that’s not exactly loaded with scorers, especially when Bojan Bogdanovic‘s season ended early due to wrist surgery. But he’s a somewhat one-dimensional player who’s not exactly an elite defender.

Utah president of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey spoke last month about prioritizing defensive-minded players this offseason. While Clarkson’s offense gave the team a boost, would his rotation spot be better utilized by a wing player who’s more capable of slowing down opposing scorers? And if Clarkson isn’t re-signed, will the Jazz have the cap flexibility to acquire a quality player who fits that bill?

If we assume Conley opts in and the Jazz keep their first-round pick while jettisoning their players on non-guaranteed contracts (except for Georges Niang), the team would be on the hook for about $116.4MM for 10 players. Re-signing Clarkson to a deal in the mid-level range would push that figure above $125MM. And if we assume the tax line will once again be $132.6MM, that doesn’t leave enough room below the tax for Utah to use its full mid-level exception.

Using the full MLE without going into the tax would be an option if the team lets Clarkson walk or cuts costs elsewhere, but it remains to be seen if that exception will be enough to acquire an impact rotation player.

A year ago, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Tyus Jones were the players who received most or all of the non-taxpayer MLE. The Jazz may have to determine whether a player in that tier would be a better option than Clarkson — or if a leaguewide reluctance to spend might result in more intriguing options being available.

Given how well Clarkson fit in Utah this past season, I’d be a little surprised if the team simply lets him go. Perhaps a best-case scenario for the Jazz would be re-signing Clarkson at a fair price and then using a portion of the MLE to sign a free agent who lacks a strong track record but has some defensive upside (such as Derrick Jones). Trading for a wing is another possibility, though the Jazz aren’t loaded with a ton of expendable trade assets.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

October 8th, 2020 at 1:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Philadelphia 76ers.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Sixers will enter the 2020 offseason with one of the NBA’s most expensive rosters — the club has more than $142MM committed to just nine players so far in 2020/21, eliminating the possibility of cap room and making Philadelphia a near-lock to be a taxpayer.

Barring major cost-cutting moves, the 76ers would have the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM) at their disposal in free agency.

Our full salary cap preview for the Sixers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 21 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 34 overall pick
  • No. 36 overall pick
  • No. 49 overall pick
  • No. 58 overall pick

As has often been the case over the last few years, the Sixers have no shortage of draft picks available.

Philadelphia gave up its own 2020 first-rounder (No. 19) to acquire Tobias Harris from the Clippers in 2019, but the club has the Thunder’s first-round pick at No. 21 as a result of a Jerami Grant trade back in 2016. That selection, which had been top-20 protected, was sent to Orlando in 2017 for the rights to draft Anzejs Pasecniks before being traded back to Philadelphia in 2019 for Markelle Fultz.

In the second round, the Sixers have their own pick at No. 49, as well as the Hawks’, Knicks’, and Lakers’ selections.

Philadelphia got Atlanta’s pick (No. 34) when the Hawks moved up for Bruno Fernando in last year’s draft; the Knicks pick at No. 36 was acquired back in 2015 when New York traded for Willy Hernangomez‘s draft rights; and the Lakers’ pick (No. 58) was originally dealt to Orlando before being flipped to the Sixers at the 2020 deadline for James Ennis.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the decision-making structure look like going forward?

Following a disappointing season, the Sixers wasted no time in firing head coach Brett Brown once they were eliminated from the playoffs. Around that same time, reports suggested that the team also planned to make some changes to its front office personnel and structure.

Since the departure of former head of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo in 2018, the 76ers’ front office has taken a collaborative approach to decision-making, but general manager Elton Brand said at season’s end that he and the club felt as if “the collaboration days didn’t work.”

The stage seemed set for the Sixers to either hire a president of basketball operations a level above Brand or to empower Brand by giving him the final say on personnel decisions. Instead, there was little clarity on Philadelphia’s front office plan for several weeks while the team was searching for its new head coach.

Identifying and hiring Brown’s replacement was supposed to be Brand’s responsibility, but team ownership was said to be heavily involved in the process. When the Sixers ultimately hired Doc Rivers, Jason Dumas of KRON4 News reported that team ownership had initially wanted Mike D’Antoni while Brand preferred Tyronn Lue — when Rivers became available, he represented a candidate that both sides agreed upon.

The hiring of Rivers further muddies the waters of the Sixers’ front office hierarchy. Rivers was formerly the Clippers’ president of basketball operations, and when he was asked in his introductory presser with the Sixers about personnel decisions, he said that he and Brand will “work together.” That sounds a lot like the “collaborative” approach that Brand said in August wasn’t working for the franchise.

Having too many cooks in the kitchen on major roster decisions could complicate trade talks and create other problems for the Sixers in the future. It would be in the organization’s best interests to have co-owners Josh Harris and David Blitzer clearly define the front office hierarchy to avoid any confusion going forward, since significant roster decisions are on the horizon.

It sounds like the team is working toward that goal, having reportedly started interviewing candidates for at least one executive role below Brand.

2. How invested are the Sixers in the Ben Simmons/Joel Embiid duo?

Shortly after the 76ers’ 2019/20 season came to an end, Brand declared that the team had no intention of trading either Simmons or Embiid. The plan, according to Brand, is to put together a roster that will better complement those two stars.

That approach comes as no surprise. When NBA teams bottom out like Philadelphia did during their infamous “Process,” the goal is to land a superstar-caliber player who can lead the franchise back to contention. Simmons and Embiid have their flaws, but they fit that criteria — they each have All-NBA berths under their belts and rank among the NBA’s best players at their respective positions. They’re also just 24 and 26 years old, respectively, so they have room to continue improving.

The problem, of course, is that their offensive styles don’t fit together as naturally as you’d like from your two stars. Simmons is a monster in transition, but still has little to no range on his jump shot, creating floor-spacing issues that clog the lane for Embiid, arguably the NBA’s best low-post scorer.

The duo’s mismatched nature has had some factions of NBA fans – in Philadelphia and elsewhere – clamoring for a trade involving one of the two players, since it’d be fascinating to see what they could do with their own teams built around their strengths.

For now though, the 76ers’ plan is to see if Rivers is capable of unlocking the potential of the Simmons/Embiid pairing. After all, it was just a puzzle that Brown was incapable of solving, then trading either player would be premature and short-sighted.

Still, while a Simmons or Embiid trade may not be in the cards this offseason, the Sixers need to start thinking about how long they’re committed to trying to make the marriage work. Even after the 2020/21 season, Embiid will have two more years on his contract and Simmons will be locked up for four seasons. Philadelphia could extract a substantial return for either player and could target packages headlined by players who would better suit their roster.

3. Can the Sixers find a favorable deal involving Tobias Harris or Al Horford?

If Simmons and Embiid are off the table, that means the Sixers’ best chance to shake up their roster this fall will involve moving one of their two other big-money contracts. Those deals belong to Harris, who still has four years and $147MM left, and to Horford, who has three years and $81MM remaining, though his final season is just partially guaranteed.

Neither of those players represents a positive asset right now. Harris remains a solid contributor, but with an annual salary of nearly $37MM over the next four years, he’s being paid as if he can be a top-two player on a title contender, which overstates his value.

As for Horford, he didn’t end up being a great fit alongside Embiid and it’s probably safe to say he’s past prime at age 34. His production won’t necessarily fall off a cliff, but his .450 FG% in his first season as a Sixer represented a career low, and his once-elite defensive skills will likely continue to fade as he enters his mid-30s and loses a step.

Although their trade value will be hurt by their exorbitant salaries, Harris and Horford could appeal to a team looking to get rid of an oversized contract of its own. That’s why Chris Paul has so frequently been cited as a potential trade target for Philadelphia.

Paul only has two years left on his contract, but his per-year salary during that time (approximately $42.8MM) is even higher than Harris’ or Horford’s. His play-making and shot-making abilities would also be a nice fit on a Sixers roster that could use a little help on both fronts.

Philadelphia native Kyle Lowry is also the sort of player the Sixers would presumably love to target. His game is similar to Paul’s and he’s even more affordable (one year at $30.5MM), though the Raptors presumably won’t be nearly as motivated to move him as the Thunder would be to find a taker for Paul.

Buddy Hield‘s is another name that has popped up frequently in 76ers-related trade speculation. He’s reportedly not thrilled with his situation in Sacramento and has liked social media posts linking him to Philadelphia. If the Sixers are targeting outside shooting, it’d be hard to do much better than Hield, who has made 41.1% of 6.7 three-point attempts per game since entering the league in 2016. His contract, worth $86MM over four years, plus incentives, isn’t necessarily a bargain, but it’s more team-friendly than Horford’s or Harris’.

Of those two Sixers contracts, Horford’s – which is shorter-term and less expensive than Harris’ – may be easier to move. Trading Horford rather than Harris probably also makes more sense for the Sixers from an on-court perspective, since it’s easier to find reliable backup centers on the cheap than it is to find productive wings.

Still, even if the 76ers’ top target is a mid-30s veteran with an oversized contract like Paul, it will take more than Horford to get a deal done. To acquire any sort of starting-caliber player, Philadelphia will have to be prepared to dip into its pool of future draft picks.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks

October 2nd, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Dallas Mavericks.

Salary Cap Outlook

If we assume that Tim Hardaway Jr. and Willie Cauley-Stein exercise their player options and account for the Mavericks’ first-round pick, the club will have nearly $112MM on its books before making any offseason moves. That would eliminate the possibility of cap room, but would give Dallas a good amount of breathing room below the tax threshold.

As a result, the Mavs will have the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) available this offseason. The bi-annual exception won’t be in play since Dallas used it a year ago to sign Boban Marjanovic.

Our full salary cap preview for the Mavericks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Tim Hardaway Jr., player option: $18,975,000
  • Willie Cauley-Stein, player option: $2,286,357

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • None

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 18 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 31 overall pick

The Mavericks have their own first-round pick at No. 18, but traded away their second-rounder (No. 48) at the 2017 trade deadline when they acquired Nerlens Noel from Philadelphia.

Fortunately, Dallas picked up another second-round pick in the 2020 draft, acquiring the Warriors’ second-rounder back in 2016 as part of an Andrew Bogut salary dump. That deal, which helped clear the cap space necessary for Golden State to sign Kevin Durant, wasn’t a popular one among rival teams at the time, but it’s paying off for the Mavs this year — the Warriors’ pick is at the very top of the second round.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How will the Mavericks balance their short- and long-term outlook this offseason?

The 2019/20 season represented a breakout year for the Mavericks, who posted their best winning percentage (.573) since 2014/15 as Luka Doncic transformed into an MVP candidate and Kristaps Porzingis enjoyed a productive first year in Dallas.

After earning the No. 7 seed in the West and playing the Clippers tough in the first round, the Mavs will feel compelled to keep upgrading the roster in the hopes of taking another big step toward title contention in 2020/21. However, Dallas seems more likely to remain in something of a holding pattern during the 2020 offseason, since the team doesn’t have a ton of short-term flexibility and will want to maximize its spending ability in 2021.

A year from now, Tim Hardaway Jr.‘s $19MM salary will come off the books, as will Boban Marjanovic‘s more modest $3.5MM figure. Assuming there’s at least a small increase in the salary cap, the club will be well-positioned to create either a maximum-salary cap slot or something close to it. In other words, it probably doesn’t make sense to invest in multiyear deals for role players this offseason, since those deals would cut into the team’s ’21 cap space, compromising a potential opportunity to add an impact player.

That doesn’t mean Dallas has to stand pat in the coming months. Adding potential contributors on one-year deals is a viable option, and the club won’t hesitate to explore the trade market for upgrades. It’s even possible that the Mavericks could trade for a third impact player to complement Doncic and Porzingis without having to wait to clear cap room in 2021.

However, with multiple future first-round picks tied up due to previous trades – and without a ton of expendable young players who could be trade chips – it will probably be simpler for the Mavs to pursue that sort of impact player in free agency in 2021 rather than on the trade market.

The 2020 offseason will be an interesting challenge for Dallas. Following the team’s impressive showing in 2019/20, the Mavs’ front office won’t want to give its players the impression that it’s being inactive this fall, but the club will still want to prioritize building a long-term contender over pursuing short-term success in ’20/21.

2. How will the Mavericks use their mid-level exception?

The Mavericks won’t have cap room in 2020, but they also don’t appear to be in any danger of approaching or surpassing the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll be able to use their full $9.3MM mid-level exception.

Splitting that exception into multiple parts is one possibility. Dallas took that path in 2019/20, using most of the MLE to lock up Seth Curry and a small portion of it to sign second-round pick Isaiah Roby. Landing another veteran like Curry, who can reliably play a rotation role, should be the Mavs’ goal with the mid-level this offseason, and I expect they’ll earmark most or all of it for that purpose.

The challenge, of course, will be finding a quality contributor willing to accept a deal worth the MLE that’s only fully guaranteed for a single year, so as not to compromise the 2021 space. By comparison, Curry’s contract was for four years and $32MM.

One factor working in the Mavs’ favor is that so few teams have cap room available this offseason. Once a few of the bigger-name targets come off the board, that leaguewide cap space may completely dry up, so it’s possible that some solid players in the second or third tier of this year’s list of free agents won’t be able to do better than the mid-level. Dallas would be in position to take advantage of that situation.

We’ll have to wait to see what sort of players will be within reach for the Mavs when the free agent period begins. A couple potential targets I like are D.J. Augustin – a dependable point guard who can play on or off the board and make outside shots – and Marcus Morris, whose physicality and ability to guard high-scoring opposing forwards would help fill a hole on Dallas’ roster. However, it’s certainly possible both players will receive more appealing multiyear offers.

3. What will the Mavericks do with their two draft picks?

The Mavericks’ have another obvious path to upgrading their roster this summer: their two draft picks, which fall at No. 18 and No. 31. The team was able to find a contributor in the second round in 2018 (Jalen Brunson) and doing so with either of its draft picks this year would help open up options in the future, even if the player doesn’t make a major immediate impact.

Dallas currently has five role players slated to earn between $4-11MM in 2021/22. Trading one or more of those players in the next year would allow the club to create even more cap room in the 2021 offseason, and could be the difference between whether or not a max-salary slot is available.

The best way to make a veteran role player expendable is to find a younger, lower-cost player capable of doing many of the same things on the court that the vet does. If the Mavs draft well this year, it might clear the way to trade, say, Delon Wright.

While the Mavs hold the No. 18 and No. 31 selections for the time being, there are ways for the team to maximize the value of those picks beyond simply using them. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks suggests, combining those picks to potentially move up into the top 15 may be possible if there’s a target Dallas has its eye on. Acquiring a future first-rounder to help replace one of the picks dealt for Porzingis could be an option too.

With limited draft resources available for the next few seasons, the Mavs will want to consider all their options with these two picks to ensure they make the most of them.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

September 29th, 2020 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Brooklyn Nets.

Salary Cap Outlook

With $133MM in guaranteed money already on their books for 2020/21, not including cap holds for free agents or their first-round draft pick, the Nets are assured of being over the cap and will almost certainly be over the tax line too.

If they want to sign any outside free agents, the Nets will be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM) and minimum-salary deals.

Our full salary cap preview for the Nets can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

  • Joe Harris (Bird)
  • Tyler Johnson (Non-Bird)
  • Wilson Chandler (Non-Bird)
  • Jamal Crawford (N/A)
    • Note: Crawford won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.
  • Justin Anderson (N/A)
    • Note: Anderson won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.
  • Lance Thomas (N/A)
    • Note: Thomas won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.
  • Donta Hall (N/A)
    • Note: Hall won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 19 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 55 overall pick

The Nets traded away their own 2020 first-rounder (No. 17) in last summer’s Allen Crabbe salary dump and gave up their second-rounder (No. 47) way back in 2014 in a deal involving Andrei Kirilenko.

However, Brooklyn received Philadelphia’s first-round pick, via the Clippers, last June, in a trade that allowed L.A. to trade up to No. 27 for Mfiondu Kabengele. The Nets also acquired Denver’s second-rounder when they accommodated a Kenneth Faried/Darrell Arthur salary dump during the summer of 2018.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. So, are the Nets going to trade for a third star?

The idea that the Nets need to acquire a third impact player to complement Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving has been floating around for much of the last year, with some midseason comments from Irving about the team’s roster only fueling that speculation.

Brooklyn has little to no salary cap flexibility, so the idea would be to turn to the trade market, consolidating some of the club’s depth to land a star, with Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, and perhaps even Caris LeVert serving as possible trade chips.

It’s an intriguing concept, but it’s not without its pitfalls. For one, it remains unclear which star players will actually be available on the trade market this offseason. If the Wizards don’t want to trade Bradley Beal, the Nets can’t exactly force them to make a deal. While we can usually count on at least one disgruntled NBA star at a time to be pushing for a trade, Victor Oladipo currently looks like one of the only candidates to potentially take that path this fall, and Oladipo’s recent injury history compromises his appeal.

It’s also unclear how much the Nets would even benefit from adding another ball-dominant impact player. Durant and Irving will want to take on a good deal of the play-making and scoring responsibilities in Brooklyn, so adding a third player who will need 17 or 18 shots per game may create more problems than it solves.

Complicating matters further is the fact that Durant and Irving are coming off major injuries, and Kyrie especially has a history of nagging health issues. Does it really make sense for the Nets to make a blockbuster deal that would sacrifice their depth and leave them vulnerable if any of their stars have to miss time next season?

I’d personally be surprised if the Nets shake up their roster in a major way this offseason before seeing what they have with Durant and Irving both back in their lineup. LeVert is a rising star himself on a reasonably team-friendly contract and should be given an opportunity to show his value on a healthy Nets roster rather than being traded for a player who wouldn’t necessarily represent a significant upgrade, such as Oladipo.

That doesn’t mean that Brooklyn shouldn’t explore the trade market. There are some star players who don’t need the ball a ton and could be pretty nice fits alongside Durant and Irving — they’d would be worth going after if they become available. For instance, I was intrigued by the possibility of a Rudy Gobert pursuit back when his relationship with Donovan Mitchell was described as being on the rocks.

But acquiring a third star isn’t a must for Brooklyn this offseason. Most of the NBA’s top teams in 2019/20 got by just fine with two All-Star caliber players, and the Nets have two of the best on their way back from the injured list.

2. Will the Nets re-sign Joe Harris?

If the Nets don’t end up making a major trade, re-signing Harris could be the team’s most important roster move this offseason. Regardless of the team’s plans on the trade market, it should be a priority. The over-the-cap Nets don’t have many avenues to add outside talent anymore — taking advantage of Bird rights to re-sign their own key rotation players is crucial.

There will be no rules restricting Brooklyn’s ability to make an aggressive offer to retain Harris, so it will simply be a matter of how far the team is willing to go into tax territory to make it happen.

The 29-year-old is still in his prime and has been one of the NBA’s best shooters in recent years, knocking down 43.9% of his 1,150 three-point attempts over the last three seasons. That kind of outside shooting reliability is rare and it’s coveted by NBA teams, so the Nets will face stiff competition from rival suitors for Harris.

Fortunately for Brooklyn, there are almost no contending teams projected to have cap room, and those that do – such as the Heat – likely won’t be prioritizing shooters. If Harris’ best outside offers are for the mid-level, the Nets should have no problem topping them.

However, the possibility of a non-playoff team with cap room – such as the Hawks or Knicks – making a run at Harris shouldn’t be ruled out. Despite ostensibly still being in rebuilding mode, both clubs will be looking to get back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture sooner rather than later and should have plenty of money to spend this offseason.

A three-year offer in the range of $15MM+ annually wouldn’t seriously hamper either the Hawks’ or Knicks’ ability to spend on other positions and would put a lot of pressure on the Nets. Since Brooklyn projects to be a taxpayer even before re-signing Harris, investing $15MM per year in him would cost the club substantially more in tax penalties.

I don’t think the Nets will let Harris walk for nothing, so it might be a win-win for teams like Atlanta and New York to pursue him — even if they can’t lure him out of Brooklyn, they could potentially hinder a conference rival’s financial flexibility going forward by pushing his price tag higher.

3. What effect will Durant’s and Irving’s returns have on the Nets’ chemistry?

It may not be a question that can be definitively answered this offseason, but it’s safe to assume the Nets and new head coach Steve Nash will spend plenty of time considering how to balance the treatment of new stars Durant and Irving with the Nets’ existing vets.

The Nets will likely view the 2019/20 Clippers as a cautionary tale. The Clips had one of the NBA’s most talented rosters, but had trouble gelling and establishing positive chemistry over the course of the season. The preferential treatment that Kawhi Leonard and Paul George received was reportedly a source of frustration for some of the Clippers’ incumbent players, and the club’s inability to get on the same page played a part in its early playoff exit.

In Durant and Irving, the Nets will be led by two of the NBA’s most mercurial stars, and it remains to be seen what kind of leader Nash will be. On top of that, players like LeVert, Dinwiddie, and Allen may have to accept more modest roles in 2020/21 than they had for the injury-plagued ’19/20 squad. There are plenty of possible red flags here for Brooklyn, especially if the team experiences some growing pains to start the season.

Again, there’s no way to iron out every potential chemistry issue before next season begins, but the Nets’ front office and coaching staff should be doing all it can during the offseason to prepare to avoid the mistakes of this year’s Clippers.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

September 24th, 2020 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Portland Trail Blazers.

Salary Cap Outlook

Accounting for their guaranteed salaries, player options for Rodney Hood and Mario Hezonja, and a cap hold for their first-round pick, the Trail Blazers have over $104MM in commitments on their books for 2020/21. That probably eliminates the possibility of cap room, but the team should be able to stay out of the luxury tax — its decisions on certain free agents and Trevor Ariza‘s partially guaranteed salary will likely be made with the tax line in mind.

Depending on how far over the cap Portland goes, the team will have either the full mid-level ($9.3MM) and bi-annual ($3.6MM) exceptions available, or will be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.7MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Trail Blazers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Rodney Hood, player option: $6,003,900
  • Mario Hezonja, player option: $1,977,011

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Trevor Ariza ($12,800,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1.8MM.

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 16 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 46 overall pick

The Trail Blazers have their own two picks in the 2020 NBA draft. As a result of their summer playoff push, their first-round pick moved out of the lottery and down to No. 16.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Hassan Whiteside and/or Carmelo Anthony be re-signed?

With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins out for most of the 2019/20 season with injuries, Whiteside was asked to play a major role in the Trail Blazers’ frontcourt, and it would have been unfair to expect a much better performance than the one he provided.

The former Heat big man averaged 15.5 PPG, 13.5 RPG, and a league-leading 2.9 BPG in 67 games (30.0 MPG). Portland had a +2.7 net rating when he played, compared to just -5.5 when he sat.

Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, of course. Whiteside’s net rating was buoyed by sharing the court so often with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. And while his individual numbers were impressive, he’s not an especially versatile defender and his effort can be inconsistent.

An unrestricted free agent this offseason, Whiteside won’t match the $27MM he earned in 2019/20, and the Blazers should probably be wary about offering him even half that amount for ’20/21. Nurkic will be back in the starting lineup next season, and Collins’ role in the frontcourt should be increased as he continues to develop. Whiteside would be a useful depth piece, but Portland would probably be better off using its cap flexibility to focus on wings, perhaps opting instead for a lower-cost backup center who can stretch the floor a little.

Prioritizing wings could bode well for Anthony, who spent time at small forward when the Blazers got healthy and pivoted to jumbo lineups during the summer restart. Carmelo isn’t the dynamic scorer he once was and can’t be relied upon for lockdown defense, but he was a great fit in Portland as a secondary scorer, averaging 15.4 PPG with a .385 3PT% in 58 regular season games and making some big shots during the Blazers’ push for the No. 8 seed.

All indications are that the Blazers and Anthony have mutual interest in a reunion, so it may come down to the price tag — Carmelo’s minimum-salary contract was a bargain for Portland in 2019/20, but he may not come so cheap next season, and the club will have to decide how high it’s willing to go to bring him back. With only Non-Bird rights on the veteran forward, the Blazers would have to dip into their mid-level or use their bi-annual exception to offer him more than about $3MM.

2. Will Trevor Ariza be retained?

Portland’s decision on Anthony may hinge on part on what the team does with Ariza, another veteran forward who is a more effective defender than Carmelo, albeit not nearly as dangerous a scorer. Only $1.8MM of Ariza’s $12.8MM salary for 2020/21 is guaranteed, so the team could clear $11MM from its books by waiving him.

However, clearing that money wouldn’t create any extra cap room for the Blazers, who figure to operate as an over-the-cap team whether or not Ariza is around. That fact, combined with Ariza’s strong production for Portland last season (11.0 PPG on .491/.400/.872 shooting in 21 games), should help ensure that the 35-year-old is retained.

That doesn’t mean Ariza is a lock to spend the entire season with the Blazers. His expiring contract could be useful in a trade if there’s an opportunity for the club to acquire a younger and/or more impactful wing.

However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ariza finishes out his contract in Portland. In their first-round loss to the Lakers this summer, the Blazers were missing a player like Ariza (who had opted out of the restart) — a versatile defender with enough size to guard LeBron James. While the team will only play the Lakers a handful of times in 2020/21, Ariza’s ability to guard similar opposing frontcourt scorers should come in handy going forward.

3. What are the Blazers’ expectations for 2020/21?

Injuries to Nurkic, Collins, and Rodney Hood nearly sunk the Trail Blazers’ playoff chances in 2019/20, as Lillard and McCollum battled valiantly to keep the club within striking distance of the No. 8 seed. When Nurkic and Collins returned during the restart, Portland looked like a different team, compiling a 6-2 record in seeding games and defeating the Grizzlies in the play-in game before running into the top-seeded Lakers in the first round.

With almost all their top players under contract and Hood expected to be healthy, the Blazers should enter the 2020/21 season with increased expectations. After all, they’re only a year removed from an appearance in the Western Finals. And if the Lakers end up making a championship run this fall, Portland can probably convince itself it would’ve made more noise in the postseason against a different opponent.

Still, the Western Conference will be more competitive than ever next season and it would be risky to pencil in the Blazers for a top-five seed and a playoff series win or two. Lillard is a star and McCollum is a strong second option, but Portland still seems to be one impact player away from being a true title contender.

My best guess is that the Blazers will enter 2020/21 betting that a savvy mid-level addition and better health luck will help push them into the contender conversation, but I think they may eventually have to turn to the trade market to try to find that missing piece.

Armed with all their future first-round draft picks and with promising young players like Collins, Gary Trent Jr., Anfernee Simons, and Nassir Little, the Blazers have the pieces necessary to put together an intriguing package if a star becomes available. It will be interesting to see whether Neil Olshey and the front office start to feel any urgency to push their chips into the pot and try to maximize their window while Lillard (who turned 30 in July) is still in his prime.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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