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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

August 17th, 2020 at 3:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the New York Knicks.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Knicks have seven players with non-guaranteed (or partially guaranteed) contracts or team options for next season, totaling nearly $50MM. Their decisions on those players will go a long ways toward dictating their cap flexibility for the coming offseason.

Assuming at least a couple of the more expensive players are let go – including Bobby Portis ($15.75MM) and Wayne Ellington ($8MM) – New York is in position to open up a decent chunk of cap room — perhaps in the $25-30MM range.

Our full salary cap preview for the Knicks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Bobby Portis, team option: $15,750,000 (Oct. 17 deadline)
  • Theo Pinson, team option: $1,701,593 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Taj Gibson ($9,450,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Wayne Ellington ($8,000,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Elfrid Payton ($8,000,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Reggie Bullock ($4,200,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Mitchell Robinson ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 6 overall pick (pending lottery results)
  • No. 27 overall pick

The Knicks have the sixth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 7 (29.6%). They have a 9.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 37.2% chance at a top-four selection. No. 6 (8.6%), No. 8 (20.6%), and No. 9 (3.8%) are also in play, while No. 10 (0.2%) is an extreme long shot.

The Knicks will also receive the Clippers’ first-round pick, which landed at No. 27.

Second Round:

  • No. 38 overall pick

The Knicks traded away their own second-round pick (No. 36), but acquired the Hornets’ selection, which will be No. 38.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What sort of impact will the Knicks’ new leadership have?

The Knicks have undergone a major overhaul off the court in 2020. Veteran player agent Leon Rose was hired to head up the team’s basketball operations department, with Frank Zanin and Walt Perrin coming aboard as assistant general managers and William “World Wide Wes” Wesley being named the club’s executive VP/senior basketball advisor.

The first major task the new-look front office faced was hiring a permanent head coach, and the group settled on Tom Thibodeau, who has six postseason appearances and four playoff series wins under his belt as a head coach in Chicago and Minnesota.

There has been no shortage of turnover within the Knicks’ leadership ranks since the team last appeared in the playoffs in 2013. Thibodeau is the seventh head coach since then, and the front office has been overseen by several executives in recent years, including Steve Mills, Scott Perry, and Phil Jackson.

None of those coaches or execs have had much success in New York, and one school of thought suggests that team owner James Dolan is to blame. As long as Dolan is running the show, the theory goes, the Knicks will be incapable of building a winning culture and becoming a desirable landing spot for NBA stars.

Dolan may not be the ideal NBA team owner, but he has mostly avoided meddling in basketball matters in recent years, and he can’t be blamed for the majority of the questionable signings, draft picks, and trades the Knicks have made during that time. The right front office and head coach should be able to succeed in spite of Dolan, and the law of averages suggests that the franchise should – at some point – stumble upon the right combination.

Can Rose and Thibodeau be that “right combination”? The Knicks are hopeful that Rose’s decades of experience dealing with players and building relationships will translate into success in roster building and free agent recruiting. And Thibodeau is an experienced head coach who is liked and respected by a number of veteran stars around the league. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, but there’s at least some reason for optimism that this president/coach pairing can be more effective than the team’s recent duos.

2. Will the Knicks take a different approach with cap room this time around?

A year ago, the Knicks entered the offseason with enough cap space available to sign two maximum-salary free agents. But they were unable to convince any of the top players on the market to sign with them, and instead used the majority of their cap room to sign solid but unspectacular veterans to deals with no more than one fully guaranteed season (Julius Randle, who received two fully guaranteed seasons on his three-year contract, was the exception).

The thinking was that those veterans could help the Knicks compete for a playoff spot, then if things didn’t work out, they could be shopped for draft picks or young players at the trade deadline. New York was never in the playoff race though, and the only veteran who drew considerable interest at the deadline was Marcus Morris, who was almost an accidental signing last July — he received most of the Knicks’ remaining cap room after pulling out of a verbal agreement with the Spurs.

The Knicks can’t force star free agents to sign with them, and using their cap room to invest in long-term deals for second- or third-tier players would be ill-advised. But there were other ways to maximize their cap space, and there will be again this year, as long as the club sheds some of those 2019 signees without full guarantees for ’20/21.

The trade market offers one such avenue. A year ago, the Clippers’ willingness to take on Maurice Harkless’ $11MM expiring contract earned them a first-round pick along with a player who was a key part of their rotation until he was flipped at the trade deadline. The Knicks didn’t take advantage of any similar trade opportunities with their cap room in 2019, but they could look to do so in 2020 if there are no free agents who catch their eye.

Simply accommodating a salary-dump or two could allow New York to acquire some extra draft capital, but the team could get more ambitious than that. If the Knicks are willing to take on multiyear money, they could target high-priced impact players such as Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. Those guys likely aren’t part of their teams’ long-term plans and wouldn’t require a massive return, given their exorbitant salaries.

I’m a little skeptical that the new front office will want to go that route though, since it would mean compromising the team’s cap flexibility for 2021 for stop-gap veterans. The Knicks will want a shot at the top players in next year’s class, which will probably mean using this year’s room to sign short-term deals or to acquire expiring contracts.

3. What do the Knicks have in their former lottery picks?

Among the Knicks’ returning players, there are four who were top-10 picks in the last three NBA drafts: Frank Ntilikina (No. 8 in 2017), Dennis Smith Jr. (No. 9 in ’17), Kevin Knox (No. 9 in ’18), and RJ Barrett (No. 3 in ’19).

This will be a crucial year for all four, but especially for Ntilikina and Smith, who are entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. Ntilikina is a strong defender whose offensive game remains extremely limited, while Smith’s shooting struggles have held him back. It seems safe to assume that neither will receive a rookie scale extension this offseason — the question is whether either will begin the season with a new team.

The Knicks have been unwilling to sell low on Ntilikina in the past and didn’t end up moving Smith at this season’s deadline. But Rose didn’t draft either player, so if he doesn’t view them as part of New York’s future, he may be more inclined to view them as sunk costs and take what he can get in a trade. On the other hand, if Rose wants to see what Thibodeau can get out of them, Ntilikina and Smith may get one more chance to prove they can be part of the organization’s plan going forward.

With two years left on his rookie deal, Knox isn’t at the same crossroads as the 2017 lottery picks, but after an extremely underwhelming sophomore season, he’s under pressure to show improvement in 2020/21 under Thibodeau. He’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension a year from now, but unless he takes major strides between now and then, he’s unlikely to get one.

As for Barrett, he showed promise as a rookie and is the best candidate – besides Mitchell Robinson – to be a long-term fixture in New York. However, Rose and Thibodeau will have to make it a priority to put him in a better position to succeed. The former Duke standout was surrounded by too many ball-dominant players rather than floor-spacers in 2019/20, limiting his ability to maximize his impact.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

August 13th, 2020 at 6:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Golden State Warriors.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Warriors won’t have any cap room available in the 2020 offseason. In fact, adding the cap hit for a top-five draft pick to their already-pricey roster will easily put the Dubs in luxury tax territory.

Still, assuming team ownership remains willing to spend big, Golden State has some flexibility to add roster upgrades using the taxpayer mid-level exception (which should be worth at least $5.7MM) and a $17.2MM traded player exception.

Our full salary cap preview for the Warriors can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

  • None

Free Agents:

  • None

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 1 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Warriors are tied for the most favorable lottery odds, with a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 52.1% chance to receive a top-four selection. Because they had the NBA’s worst record, they can’t fall further than No. 5 (47.9%).

Second Round:

  • No. 48 overall pick
  • No. 51, 52, or 53 overall pick (pending tiebreaker)

The Warriors traded away their own second-round pick (No. 31), but acquired Dallas’ and Utah’s selections. The Jazz pick could end up anywhere from No. 51 to 53 depending on the results of a tiebreaker with Oklahoma City and Houston.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the Warriors do with their top-five draft pick?

If the Warriors were in a position to draft a potential generational talent such as Zion Williamson with their lottery pick this fall, there would be little doubt that they’d hang onto their first-rounder and simply plug that player into their lineup.

However, with no consensus on who should be the No. 1 pick in 2020 and no surefire superstars in this year’s draft class, it might make more sense for the veteran team to shop its top-five pick and trade it to the highest bidder.

Just one year removed from their fifth consecutive NBA Finals appearance, the Warriors are well positioned to bounce back in a big way in 2020/21, with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in the mix. The right deal could give Golden State the immediate upgrade necessary to once again enter the season as the championship frontrunner.

Unlike most clubs picking high in the lottery, the Warriors aren’t in desperate need of an infusion of young talent. And with teams around the NBA potentially tightening their purse strings as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, acquiring a high-upside rookie on a cost-controlled four-year contract could hold significant appeal to a potential Warriors trade partner, increasing the Dubs’ leverage in negotiations.

Still, there are compelling reasons for Golden State to considering keeping the pick. For one, the Warriors’ stars are all now in their 30s — going all-in on veterans would mean risking having the franchise’s window of contention close within the next few years. Adding a young building block could help eventually ease the transition from the Curry/Thompson/Draymond Green-era Warriors to the next generation.

It’s also worth considering what exactly the Warriors could get back in a trade involving their lottery pick. When the Lakers landed the No. 4 pick in the 2019 lottery, it was a foregone conclusion that they’d use that pick as part of their offer for Anthony Davis. There are no superstars this fall who are locks to be on the trade block and who have conveyed a desire to play in the Bay Area. A top-five pick could net the Warriors a good return, but the opportunity to land a bona fide star may simply not be there this offseason.

Although I certainly expect the Warriors to explore a variety of trade options involving their lottery pick, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team’s approach to that selection is similar to the one it took with D’Angelo Russell. When Golden State acquired Russell in a sign-and-trade, it did so knowing he’d have enough value to eventually be flipped for an asset – or assets – that better complemented the current roster.

The Warriors could take the same path with their top pick, using it to draft a player while recognizing that that prospect could eventually headline an appealing package if the right veteran star reaches the trade market.

2. What will the Warriors do with their $17MM+ trade exception?

The Warriors’ decision on trading their draft pick is complicated by the fact that they have a $17MM+ traded player exception that will expire if it’s not used by October 24. The exception allows the team to acquire a player (or players) earning up to $17,285,185 without sending out any salary themselves. That ability could be extremely useful in any draft-day trade.

Most trade exceptions expire without being used, but this one – besides being unusually large – is also one of the only viable avenues for the Warriors to make a roster upgrade this fall. They project to be well over the tax line, meaning they’ll have no cap room, no bi-annual exception, and will only have the taxpayer version of the mid-level exception. If they don’t use this TPE, their flexibility to add talent will be limited.

That’s not to say that the Warriors are obligated to use the exception. Adding salary to the roster will increase Golden State’s tax bill exponentially. And while Joe Lacob and company have never been shy about spending big, we’re in uncharted territory now, with no real sense of when fans might be allowed back in the Warriors’ new arena. The revenues from the Chase Center were supposed to help offset the rising cost of the club’s roster, but barring a major nationwide and statewide improvement on the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the club won’t be selling out its building anytime soon.

The Warriors will want to take advantage of Curry’s and Thompson’s prime years and aren’t about to cut costs. But acquiring a player earning $17MM would likely increase the team’s tax bill by three or four times that amount. Although there are some intriguing potential targets out there, guys like Evan Fournier, Will Barton, J.J. Redick, or Josh Richardson aren’t exactly stars — increasing overall 2020/21 payroll by $50-80MM to land one of them might not be the best use of the organization’s resources.

With that in mind, it’s worth noting that using a $17MM trade exception to acquire a player earning $5MM – instead of $17MM – shouldn’t be viewed as a wasted opportunity. If a lesser-priced player can provide similar production, it’s the prudent move, even if it means not taking advantage of the full exception. As such, if the Warriors use their TPE, they may prioritize finding a bargain veteran or a player on a rookie contract who could be acquired without breaking the bank.

3. What’s the plan for Andrew Wiggins?

The cleanest way for the Warriors to avoid an astronomical tax bill while still making some changes to their roster would be to trade Wiggins. Of the four Warriors players earning more than $22MM in 2020/21, he’s the most expendable, having not been part of their championship teams.

But Wiggins still doesn’t have positive trade value at this point. When he was dealt to Golden State for Russell, there was plenty of talk about how playing on the wing alongside Curry, Thompson, and Green would be an ideal situation for the former No. 1 pick, giving him a chance to rebuild his value as a complementary option rather than a go-to guy. However, we haven’t actually seen whether that forecast will come to fruition, in part because he hasn’t had a chance to play with the team’s three stars yet.

In the limited action he did see for the Warriors, Wiggins didn’t look all that different from the player we saw in Minnesota. He can score, but not especially efficiently. And the team was worse defensively when he was on the court than when he sat.

With three years and $94.7MM left on his contract, Wiggins still has to take significant strides before he can realistically be considered a positive trade asset. That means it probably doesn’t make much sense for Golden State to try to move him this offseason.

If the team legitimately believes that Wiggins will thrive in his new role, it should give him a chance to do so. If it works, Warriors management can decide at that point whether it makes more sense to keep him in that role or to revisit the trade market with a more appealing asset in hand.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

August 12th, 2020 at 12:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Detroit Pistons.

Salary Cap Outlook

Trading Andre Drummond at the February trade deadline ensured that the Pistons will be able to create some cap room this offseason.

The exact amount available will hinge on several factors, including how many non-guaranteed contracts and free agents the team wants to retain, where its lottery pick lands, and how much the league-wide salary cap increases, if at all.

However, even a fairly conservative estimate – which assumes no cap increase and Detroit retaining its non-guaranteed players and Christian Wood‘s cap hold – should comfortably get the Pistons to $25MM+ in space.

Our full salary cap preview for the Pistons can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 5 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Pistons have the fifth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 7 (26.7%). They have a 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 42.1% chance at a top-four selection, with No. 6 (19.6%) and No. 8 (8.8%) also realistic possibilities. No. 5 (2.2%) and No. 9 (0.6%) are longer shots.

Second Round:

  • None

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How much longer will Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose be Pistons?

Trading Drummond and buying out veteran point guard Reggie Jackson earlier this year signaled that the Pistons are entering a full-fledged rebuild. The hiring of Troy Weaver – a longtime member of the Oklahoma City front office who advocated for drafting Russell Westbrook back in 2008 and helped turn the Thunder into perennial contenders – suggests that the new general manager will get a chance to put his own stamp on the franchise as it accumulates talent.

With that in mind, it’s hard to see how former No. 1 overall picks Griffin and Rose fit into the Pistons’ plan going forward. Both players are 31 years old and have troublesome injury histories. Rose is entering a contract year, while Griffin has two years left on his deal. In other words, neither player seems all that likely to be part of the next Pistons playoff team.

That doesn’t mean that Detroit will look to move them both this offseason though. Rose will certainly enter the fall as a trade candidate, but the Pistons decided not to trade him at the 2020 deadline despite receiving offers. It wouldn’t be a shock if they rebuff interest again and wait until next year’s trade deadline to seriously consider moving on from the former MVP.

As for Griffin, his value took a major hit following a lost 2019/20 season in which he was limited to 18 games due to knee problems. With $75.8MM owed to him over the next two years, Griffin is a negative trade asset, meaning it wouldn’t be in the Pistons’ best interests to pursue a deal at this point.

It makes far more sense for the team to be patient in the hopes that Griffin can bounce back in 2020/21, rebuilding his value and perhaps becoming a more viable trade chip before his contract expires in 2022.

If the right deal comes along, Weaver certainly won’t hesitate to move both Rose and Griffin sooner rather than later. But if they don’t get any offers they love, the Pistons shouldn’t be in any rush to move the former All-Stars, whose veteran leadership could still be useful for a young team.

2. Is Luke Kennard a long-term keeper or a trade chip?

The 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft, Kennard is still just 24 years old and remains a year away from restricted free agency, with a very affordable $5.3MM cap hit for 2020/21. There’s no reason he can’t be part of the Pistons’ rebuilding process if the team views him as a long-term contributor.

However, it remains to be seen how committed Detroit is to making Kennard a franchise building block. The young sharpshooter was the subject of trade rumors in February, with reports at the time suggesting that a proposed deal with the Suns was close to being completed, before it fell apart.

With Weaver now in the front office mix, it will be interesting to see which direction the Pistons go with Kennard, whose shooting ability and still-modest cap charge would make him an intriguing target for cost-conscious teams seeking three-point help in ’20/21.

The former Duke standout will become eligible for a rookie scale extension this October, and engaging in exploratory talks on a new deal should give the Pistons a sense of how much it will cost to retain Kennard. If the team feels that money would be better spent elsewhere, it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear Kennard’s name resurface in trade rumors in the coming months. On the other hand, if the price is right, the two sides will be in good position to commit to a long-term union.

3. How much are the Pistons willing to pay to retain Christian Wood?

Kennard’s extension isn’t the most pressing contract decision the Pistons will have to make on one of their current players. Unlike Kennard, who remains under contract for one more year, Wood will become a free agent this October, and he’ll be unrestricted, free to sign with any team.

Wood will hit the free agent market on the heels of a breakout year. His full-season stats (13.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) don’t tell the full story — after he entered the starting lineup following the Drummond trade, Wood recorded 22.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 2.0 APG over his final 13 games. He also showed off an improved three-point shot, making 54-of-140 attempts (38.6%) on the season, despite having only attempted 42 threes prior to 2019/20.

Wood’s impressive performance, his age (25 in September), and a weak 2020 free agent class will make him one of the fall’s most attractive young UFA targets. However, a massive payday is no lock. His lack of track record could hurt him, and so will the fact that only a small handful of teams have cap room available. If those teams use their space elsewhere, Wood could have trouble finding an offer worth more than the mid-level from any team besides Detroit.

Recognizing that Wood’s market might be limited, the Pistons will want to avoid overpaying to retain the big man, who – like Kennard – is young enough to be part of the team’s rebuild.

With few long-term financial commitments on their books, the Pistons can comfortably afford to go up to the $15MM-per-year range for Wood, but if that doesn’t get it done, the team may be wary about surrendering additional flexibility for a player with such a limited résumé (Wood had appeared in 51 total games for four teams before this season).

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

August 7th, 2020 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Atlanta Hawks.

Salary Cap Outlook

With so much uncertainty surrounding the 2020/21 salary cap, it’s impossible to say exactly how much space the Hawks will have. But they currently project to have more flexibility than virtually any other team in the NBA.

Even if the cap remains the same as it was in ’19/20, Atlanta could comfortably get to $43MM+ in room, depending on where the team’s lottery pick lands. Once they use up all that space, the Hawks will have the room exception available — it’d be worth $4.77MM if the cap doesn’t increase.

Our full salary cap preview for the Hawks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 4 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Hawks have the fourth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 6 (25.7%). They have a 12.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 48.1% chance at a top-four selection, with No. 5 (7.2%), No. 7 (16.8%), and No. 8 (2.2%) also in play.

Second Round:

  • No. 50 overall pick

The Hawks will receive the more favorable of the Heat’s and Rockets’ second-round picks. That’ll be Miami’s second-rounder, which falls at No. 50 — Houston’s will land in the No. 51-53 range.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How will the Hawks use their cap room?

Under general manager Travis Schlenk, the Hawks haven’t been major players in free agency, preferring to hang back and wait for the potential bargains that are available a few days after the league year opens. Atlanta has generally had no shortage of cap space in those years, but has preferred to use it to absorb unwanted contracts to gain extra draft picks.

With the Hawks looking to soon make the transition from rebuilding team to perennial playoff threat, it would seem to be a prime time to adjust their free agency philosophy. With so much space available this fall, Atlanta could theoretically make a major splash, adding a veteran or two who could help push the team’s young core over the top.

While that plan may sound good to team ownership, a couple of practical factors could complicate matters. For one, this year’s free agent class isn’t exactly loaded with stars for the Hawks to target. None of the players at the top of our free agent power rankings are really logical options for Atlanta.

Anthony Davis isn’t leaving L.A.; the Pelicans almost certainly aren’t letting Brandon Ingram get away; Montrezl Harrell doesn’t make sense for a team that just acquired Clint Capela; and Fred VanVleet probably isn’t an ideal partner for Trae Young in what would be a very undersized backcourt. There are players further down that list that could appeal to the Hawks, but investing big long-term money in any of them would be risky.

On top of that, this offseason sets up perfectly for Atlanta to stick with its formula of using cap room to accommodate salary dumps and collect assets. After all, with team owners across the league expected to feel the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, there may be several teams who are looking to cut costs and are willing to part with draft picks to do so.

The Hawks won’t be in asset-gathering mode forever, and they can afford to be a little more aggressive on the free agent market in 2020. But being one of the only teams with maximum-salary cap room doesn’t mean they’ll come out of the offseason with a max-caliber player.

2. Is it time to consolidate assets in a trade?

If the Hawks can’t land a star on the free agent market, could they do so in a trade? They have no shortage of trade chips available if they want to try to make a move, including an extra 2022 first-round pick and a handful of future second-rounders.

Young looks like an obvious keeper, but there’s no one else on the Hawks’ roster that is 100% assured of a long-term stay in Atlanta — the team would surely consider moving the likes of De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and/or Kevin Huerter if the price is right, and even John Collins was mentioned in trade rumors earlier this year.

Given Young’s ability on offense and lack thereof on defense, the most logical fit for the Hawks would be a two-way wing who can lock down opposing scorers and doesn’t necessarily need to dominate the ball.

Those players aren’t easy to find though, and the most frequent subjects of trade speculation these days don’t quite fit the bill — Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine, for instance, aren’t strong enough defenders to pair with Young. Stars who might’ve made sense for the Hawks in past years when they were unhappy with their situations – such as Jimmy Butler or Paul George – are now in their preferred destinations and likely won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

The Hawks have done business with the Nets in recent years, and if Brooklyn makes Caris LeVert available this offseason in its search for a third star, that’d be an opportunity worth exploring. Otherwise, it’s hard to find many ideal fits on the trade market if the Hawks want to cash in some chips for an impact wing.

3. Will the Hawks extend John Collins this fall?

Currently, Capela is the only player on the Hawks’ roster who is owed more than $15MM in any future season. He’s also the one who has a fully guaranteed salary beyond 2021, with the exception of the players on their rookie contracts.

However, Atlanta will have to start making major financial decisions on its young talent as early as this offseason, when Collins becomes eligible for his rookie scale extension. There are compelling reasons for the Hawks to wait on a new deal for Collins and equally compelling reasons for the team to get something done this fall.

Waiting until 2021 to make a decision on Collins would give the Hawks a chance to evaluate how their Collins/Capela frontcourt actually looks on the court, since the two big men have yet to play a game together.

Additionally, since Collins has said multiple times in recent months that he feels as if he’s worthy of a maximum-salary contract, it might make more sense to have him fully earn that max deal with a strong contract year rather than handing it to him after a season that started with a 25-game suspension for a drug violation.

Waiting for Collins to reach restricted free agency would also significantly increase the Hawks’ flexibility in 2021. Rather than entering that offseason with a max salary for Collins (likely in the $28-30MM range) already on the books, the team would just have to carry his $12.4MM cap hold — that would create a ton of extra cap flexibility for the Hawks before they go over the cap to re-sign him.

On the other hand, the fact that Collins has so frequently talked about the possibility of an extension suggests it’s important to him to get something finalized sooner rather than later for the sake of security, and Atlanta may not want to risk alienating one of its potential cornerstones.

A handful of factors – that 25-game suspension, a disappointing season for the Hawks, and the NBA’s current financial outlook – may also give the club some leverage to negotiate something below the max for Collins. If he’s open to that possibility, it could save the team some money in the long run. The Celtics and Pacers, for instance, were wise to complete extensions with Jaylen Brown and Domantas Sabonis last fall, since they would’ve been candidates for more lucrative offer sheets this offseason.

Whichever path the Hawks take, it won’t necessarily represent their final decision on whether Collins is a long-term building block for the franchise. Trading him in a year or two will still be possible if he signs an extension, and locking him up in 2021 shouldn’t be a problem even if the two sides don’t agree to an extension this year.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

August 5th, 2020 at 3:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Cavaliers have approximately $78.4MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2020/21 and will likely add Andre Drummond‘s $28.75MM player option to that figure, reducing their odds of creating any cap room this offseason.

The club should have its full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available, with breathing room below the luxury tax line.

Our full salary cap preview for the Cavaliers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Andre Drummond, player option: $28,751,774 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 2 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Cavaliers have the second-best lottery odds but could easily end up picking as low as No. 5 (27.8%) or No. 6 (20.0%). They have a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 52.1% chance at a top-four selection.

Second Round:

  • None

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What’s the Cavaliers’ plan for Andre Drummond?

When the Cavs acquired Drummond from the Pistons at the trade deadline, the cost wasn’t exactly prohibitive — all it took to land the two-time All-Star was a pair of expiring contracts (belonging to John Henson and Brandon Knight) and a 2023 second-round pick.

For a team that doesn’t typically attract top free agents, paying such a modest price for a productive center like Drummond seemed like a worthwhile investment. However, the deal raised some questions as well. For instance, will Drummond opt into the final year of his contract in 2020/21? Even before the coronavirus pandemic halted the season and complicated the salary cap outlook for next season, the answer to that question appeared to be yes.

With that in mind, did it make sense for Cleveland to sacrifice potential 2020 cap room for Drummond? And how will the acquisition affect incumbent big men like Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson? Does a Love/Drummond frontcourt pairing work? Will Thompson decide to sign elsewhere now that the center spot on Cleveland’s depth chart is a little more crowded?

Although his style of play is perhaps more suited to the NBA of the 1990s or 2000s than today’s modern game, Drummond’s elite rebounding skills and his rim-protecting ability make him a solid contributor, and he’s probably better than any free agent the Cavs could’ve convinced to sign in Cleveland using their cap space this fall.

Still, there are other options for rebuilding teams with cap room, such as taking on unwanted contracts in order to collect additional draft assets. The Cavaliers’ decision to acquire Drummond suggests they’re anxious to be more competitive in the short term. That’s a somewhat risky play, though Drummond’s ability as a rim-runner and lob catcher could help young guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland develop further on offense.

I think evaluating Drummond’s fit in 2020/21 before his potential free agency next offseason is a fairly low-risk approach, but reports have indicated that a multiyear contract extension isn’t out of the question this offseason. I’d be more wary of going that route if I were the Cavs, since I’m unconvinced he’s the long-term answer in the middle for the club.

2. Will perennial trade candidate Kevin Love be moved?

Ever since it became clear in 2018 that LeBron James was leaving Cleveland for a second time, Love has been viewed as a trade candidate. However, the possibility of a deal was complicated by the big-money contract extension he signed in July 2018, just weeks after LeBron’s departure.

That extension will keep Love under contract through 2023 — he still has three years and $91.5MM on the deal after this season. By the time, he inks his next NBA contract, he’ll be entering his age-35 season.

Love’s injury history doesn’t help his trade value. Neither does the fact that his numbers over the last two seasons have only been good, not great, even as he ostensibly became the Cavs’ go-team option with LeBron and Kyrie Irving no longer around.

The Cavs have insisted over and over that they wouldn’t consider a salary-dump deal for Love and would only move him if they get good value – such as first-round draft picks and/or young players – in return. At this point though, especially given how the coronavirus pandemic will affect teams’ financial decisions, Love probably doesn’t warrant such a package from any interested suitor.

It’s possible the Cavs are just playing hardball and don’t really expect much more than a Drummond-esque return for Love. But if they stick to their stated stance, it seems safe to assume that Love won’t be going anywhere anytime soon, since no team will meet Cleveland’s alleged price.

3. How will the Cavaliers use their lottery pick after selecting guards in 2018 and 2019?

About a month ago, Killian Hayes‘ agent dropped an interesting tidbit during a podcast appearance, suggesting that his client wasn’t planning to meet with the Cavaliers, since the Cavs aren’t expected to draft a guard in this year’s lottery.

On one hand, that makes sense — in Sexton and Garland, Cleveland has two potential long-term building blocks. On the other hand, those two guards haven’t really shown enough in the last two years to convince the franchise that the backcourt is set for the next five or 10 years. Armed with a top-six pick, the Cavs should perhaps still be in best-player-available mode in this year’s draft, even if that player is another guard.

If the Cavs do make an effort to avoid drafting another guard, it would narrow their options in the lottery. James Wiseman and Onyeka Okongwu are the top centers available and could appeal to Cleveland. However, the wing looks like the team’s most glaring need.

Zeroing in on a wing would mean the Cavs would be doing plenty of homework on the likes of Deni Avdija, Obi Toppin, Isaac Okoro, and Devin Vassell. There’s no real consensus among draft experts on how to rank those players, as they all have their own strengths and weaknesses. Vassell is the best shooter of the bunch, while Okoro is probably the strongest defender. Avdija has promising play-making ability, while Toppin – who is more of a power forward – is one of the draft’s most intriguing athletes.

Obviously, the Cavs’ pick will depend in large part on where they land in the draft and which players are available when they’re on the clock. But if the team prefers a wing, it would be interesting to see what general manager Koby Altman does if he lands a top-two pick. Would the Cavs consider trading down a little if another team wants to move up for a guard like LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards?

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016 Offseason Outlook Series

June 23rd, 2016 at 4:14pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Hoops Rumors took a look ahead at the potential offseason moves for all 30 teams. We examined free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise heading into the summer. Listed below are all 30 team previews organized by conference and division.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

Central Division

Southeast Division

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest Division

Pacific Division

Southwest Division

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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 23rd, 2016 at 3:38pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

Forgive the Cavaliers and their fans if they’re not quite ready for the offseason to get underway quite yet. It has been four days since Cleveland won its first major sports championship in more than 50 years, and Cavs fans probably aren’t prepared to end the party quite yet. Given the quick turnaround between Game 7 of the NBA Finals and the 2016 draft, however, it’s time for the franchise to start looking ahead to 2016/17 and re-evaluating its roster.

What A Difference A Game Makes

Perhaps it’s more accurate to call this section “What A Difference Three Games Make,” since heading into Game 5, speculation surrounding the Cavaliers’ offseason centered around the team retooling the roster around LeBron James. Kevin Love was the most obvious bad fit on the roster, but he likely wouldn’t have been the only player shopped this summer if the Cavs had gone down quietly in the Finals.

Instead, Cleveland completed a comeback for the record books, storming back to win the next three games against the Warriors, and now the idea of blowing up the roster around LeBron doesn’t look quite so necessary.

Will the Cavaliers still consider moving Love? Probably. Despite the team’s championship victory, and Love’s contributions to that title, he was never a perfect fit with LeBron and Kyrie Irving, and it could make sense for Cleveland to move him if it helps the club add some help on the wing, a shooter, and/or a little spending flexibility.

Still, winning the championship means the Cavaliers are playing with house money in 2016/17. The team doesn’t have to move Love, and likely won’t be aggressive about trying to find deals that shake up the roster. There’s no harm in listening, since there’s still room for improvement, but the Cavs won’t be under nearly as much pressure to sell Love – or anyone else – for 50 cents on the dollar.

Trade Possibilities

What sort of offers would make Cleveland listen on Love? I’ve always viewed the Celtics as the best match, and a hypothetical trade sending Love to Boston has been the subject of plenty of speculation. The C’s have a ton of draft picks at their disposal, and veteran players like Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder could be appealing to Cleveland.

The Rockets could also make sense as a potential trade partner. If Dwight Howard doesn’t return to Houston, GM Daryl Morey will be on the lookout for a second star to pair with James Harden. The Rockets don’t have a first-round pick to offer this year, but have been gauging trade interest in players like Patrick Beverley, K.J. McDaniels and Trevor Ariza, all of whom would make some amount of sense for the Cavs.

Outside of Love, there are some other potential trade candidates on the roster. Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert, and Channing Frye don’t necessarily need to be moved, but they wouldn’t be untouchable either. Irving, on the other hand, has probably cemented his spot on the roster after his performance in the Finals.

The Cavaliers also have several trade exceptions that could be used to accommodate incoming players without sending out any salary, including one worth nearly $10MM that doesn’t expire until next February. The Cavs’ cap situation may prevent them from taking on too much salary without getting rid of some, but the team certainly has plenty of options when it comes to making roster adjustments.

LeBron: Not Going Anywhere

While LeBron’s contract features a player option for 2016/17, and he’s expected to decline that option, there has never been much real suspense about whether or not he’ll leave Cleveland this summer. There has been a tacit understanding that his contract is structured in a way that will allow him to re-up for more money as the cap increases and the CBA gets renegotiated. James confirmed as much prior to the club’s victory parade on Wednesday.

“I love it here. I love being here. I love my teammates,” James told Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com. “Obviously my agent will take care of all the logistical things but, I’m happy. I’ve got no plans to go nowhere at this point.”

Those “logistical things” LeBron alludes to are somewhat complicated, since the Cavaliers only have Early Bird rights on their superstar, and don’t have any cap room. That could prevent LeBron from signing a maximum-salary contract this offseason, but he’ll be in line for a raise on his player option, and can get the max a year from now, as Bobby Marks of The Vertical explained in his breakdown of the situation.

Free Agent Outlook

Assuming James opts out of his contract and signs a new deal, his salary figures to increase to at least $27.5MM, which would put the Cavaliers’ total guaranteed salary commitments over $102MM for the 2016/17 season. Even with a projected $94MM cap and $113MM tax threshold, that’s a lot of money for eight players.

That $102MM+ figure doesn’t take into account J.R. Smith, who turned down his player option and will hit the open market in line for a raise. It also doesn’t include Matthew Dellavedova, who is eligible for restricted free agency, or Timofey Mozgov, an unrestricted free agent.

Replacing a couple of those veterans with young prospects would be one option to save a little money, but the Cavaliers have traded away both of their 2016 draft picks. As such, filling out the bench probably won’t be cheap, and with the cap on the rise, the mini mid-level exception and minimum-salary exception may not attract the caliber of player they once did.

With their flexibility somewhat limited, the Cavs may either have to rely on signing their own free agents or counting on an outside veteran to take a discount to join a championship contender, like David West did last year with the Spurs. If they can’t find free agents willing to do that, the trade market could be the Cavs’ most logical route for an upgrade.

Final Take

The Cavaliers’ NBA Finals win took away much of the urgency from their offseason. The roster, as constructed, is still a favorite to win the East, so there’s no pressure on the franchise to make major changes this summer. That doesn’t mean Cleveland won’t make a few noteworthy moves in the next few weeks, but it could open the door for the club to wait until the trade deadline to address potential holes in its roster, rather than agreeing to a deal it’s not 100% sold on this offseason.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $94,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors

June 23rd, 2016 at 11:58am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

On the heels of a championship season in 2014/15, the Warriors had another outstanding run this past year, right up until the final few minutes of Game 7 of the NBA Finals, when the team couldn’t find the basket, and failed to put a bow on its record-setting, 73-win season.Stephen Curry vertical

It was a disappointing end to an otherwise magical season, and there were no shortage of possible explanations for the Warriors’ inability to close out the Cavaliers in a series they led three games to one. If it hadn’t been for Draymond Green‘s suspension, Andrew Bogut‘s injury, or even Stephen Curry‘s health issues, which may have limited him a little in the postseason, the series might have ended differently.

Still, the Warriors’ decision-makers aren’t the types who will rely on better luck next season. Golden State’s front office is proactive and aggressive, and won’t be shy about pushing to improve the roster for 2016/17. After all, this year’s squad won 73 regular-season games, not 82 — there still could be room to get better.

Pursuing Another MVP

Curry has won the last two NBA MVP awards, but Golden State’s offseason may focus on the guy who won the award before him. Multiple reports have indicated that the Warriors are expected to make a major push for Kevin Durant, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent for the first time.

The Thunder, who pushed the Warriors to the brink in the Western Conference Finals, remain the odds-on favorites to retain Durant, who seems more likely to head into the summer hoping to beat Golden State rather than to join them. but if KD does want a change of scenery, the Warriors could certainly make a compelling pitch. A recent report indicated that the Warriors are viewed as the biggest threat to OKC as Durant prepares to meet with potential suitors.

With more than $71MM in guaranteed contracts for 2016/17, the Warriors won’t have the cap room necessary to offer Durant a max contract unless the cap greatly exceeds the projected $94MM figure, and working out a sign-and-trade with the rival Thunder seems unlikely. Still, outside of Curry, Green, and Klay Thompson, Golden State would surely be willing to part with any of its current players to land Durant. Bogut and Andre Iguodala, who are each entering contract years and are on the books for $11MM+ apiece next season, would probably be the prime candidates to be moved in that scenario.

Other Free Agent Targets

If the Warriors don’t land Durant, they’ll have plenty of alternate targets on their shopping list. A forward who can shoot makes the most sense for Golden State, which could ultimately lead the team back to restricted free agent Harrison Barnes.

Barnes’ performance in the Finals, where he struggled mightily with his shooting touch, was a worrisome sign for a player who could be looking at a maximum-salary offer sheet this offseason. It appeared at one point that Golden State would match any rival offer Barnes received, but that’s not quite so certain now. If Barnes does sign an offer sheet from another team, the Warriors will have a few days to make their decision on whether or not to match it, so that could allow the team to explore the market to see if there are more appealing options out there.

One of those options may be Dirk Nowitzki, whom the Warriors reportedly intend to call once free agency begins. I would be shocked if Nowitzki, a Maverick since 1998, left Dallas, but there’s no reason Golden State shouldn’t take a shot. It’s hard to imagine any free agent who wouldn’t have at least some interest in joining a team coming off a 73-9 season.

Whether or not the Warriors are able to land a big fish in free agency, the club also figures to focus on retooling its bench. Like Barnes, Festus Ezeli and Ian Clark are restricted free agents, while Marreese Speights, Leandro Barbosa, Brandon Rush, and Anderson Varejao are eligible for unrestricted free agency.

It’s possible that Ezeli will be retained if his price doesn’t get too high, and a couple of those veterans could be back on minimum-salary deals. But I’d expect the Warriors to let some of those players walk, then use any leftover cap room or exceptions to focus on upgrading its bench, adding players to complement Iguodala and Shaun Livingston on the second unit.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round picks: 30th
  • Second-round picks: None

Of course, with so many veterans facing free agency, one path for the Warriors to address their bench is through the draft. The 30th overall pick is actually a very nice asset to have this season, given the rising salary cap. The draft’s final first-rounder will likely sign a four-year contract worth less than $6MM, including a first-year salary of about $1.17MM, as we outlined here. Talented young players don’t come much more affordably than that — we could even see some second-round picks sign bigger deals than that.

With 29 prospects off the board ahead of their pick, the Warriors are unlikely to land an impact player at No. 30, but if several teams select draft-and-stash players ahead of them, it could make sense for the Dubs to grab a player who can join the roster immediately.

Many mock drafts agree with that approach, suggesting that Golden State could swap out a departing veteran free agent for a young replacement. In their latest mocks, ESPN’s Chad Ford and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com have the Warriors addressing the center position, picking Damian Jones (Vanderbilt) and Diamond Stone (Maryland), respectively. Our own mock draft has Golden State adding depth at the two spot by nabbing Patrick McCaw (UNLV).

Planning For Steph’s Raise

Curry is currently one of the NBA’s best bargains, having signed a four-year, $44MM extension with the Warriors in 2012. That deal will expire after the 2016/17 season, and it’s virtually a given that the club will offer Curry a max contract – in terms of both dollars and years – at that time.

Assuming Curry remains in Golden State, that means his salary will more than double for the 2017/18 season. With the cap increasing and only Thompson and Green currently on guaranteed contracts beyond 2017, the Warriors should be in great shape to accommodate that huge raise. But it’s still somethings worth taking into account as they pursue free agents this summer, since the cap is expected to level out somewhat, beginning in 2018.

Final Take

The Warriors have vowed to be aggressive this offseason, and given what an appealing destination Golden State is, I’d expect plenty of free agents to be linked to the team in the coming weeks. Nonetheless, it will be a challenge to lure top targets like Durant and Nowitzki, who have only played for one team for their entire careers, to the Bay Area.

If the Warriors are unable to land one of those top free agents, re-signing Barnes and making a few changes to their bench isn’t a bad Plan B. Considering the team was just one quarter away from its second consecutive championship, it should be a legit title contender again in 2016/17, even without making a huge splash.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Shaun Livingston ($2,782,450) — Partial guarantee; guaranteed portion listed above1

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

  1. Livingston’s full $5,782,450 salary will become guaranteed if he’s still on the roster beyond June 30th.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Utah Jazz

June 22nd, 2016 at 8:54pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise heading into the summer.

State of the Franchise

Russ Isabella/USA TODAY Sports Images

Russ Isabella/USA TODAY Sports Images

The Jazz finished under .500 for the third straight campaign, narrowly missing posting a winning mark for the first time since the 2012/13 season. The franchise won 40 games this year, a two game improvement from 2014/15’s victory total. But despite the losing record and trip back to the NBA draft lottery, there is much to be optimistic about in Utah.

While the minor improvement in the win column should give fans reason to hope for next season, the fact that the team did so despite the myriad injuries suffered by key personnel should generate significant excitement in Utah. 2015 lottery pick Dante Exum missed the entire season recovering from the torn ACL he suffered during play with the Australian National Team, Alec Burks missed more than half the season with ankle woes and Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert both missed roughly a quarter of the campaign, yet the Jazz were still competitive, which is a testament to coach Quin Snyder and the players who remained healthy.

It will certainly be a challenge for the Jazz to take that next step toward contention. Utah already has 12 guaranteed contracts on its books for 2016/17 and only about $64.5MM in guaranteed salary against a projected salary cap of $94MM. This will allow the team to pursue rotational upgrades and bench depth this offseason, but the Jazz will need to spend with an eye on next summer. Small forward Gordon Hayward will have the ability to opt out of his deal and hit unrestricted free agency in 2017, plus the franchise also has to consider contract extensions for Gobert and point guard Trey Burke. If the Jazz wish to keep their core intact the next few seasons, it will become significantly more expensive to do so moving forward.

Gordon Hayward‘s Future

Utah has a complex decision to make regarding Hayward, whether it’s when his current deal expires after the 2017/18 season, or next summer when he can opt out and hit unrestricted free agency. With the salary cap potentially increasing to as much as $109MM in 2017, a max salary for Hayward could approach the neighborhood of $30MM annually. Quite a hefty sum for a player owning a career 14.6 points per game scoring average.

For many franchises, I would immediately advise against inking Hayward to a deal approaching that sum, given his production level the past few years. But Utah has never been a destination city for free agents, something that isn’t likely to change anytime soon. So it becomes paramount that the team retain its talent, especially if its win totals keep improving, which will lessen the quality of draftees the Jazz will have a shot at landing annually.

I fully expect Hayward to opt out next summer given the hefty pay increase he will be in line for by doing so. The Jazz more than likely will be in a position where they are forced to retain Hayward in order to remain competitive, but he isn’t a player a team can build around, being better suited to a role as a second or third option on offense rather than a focal point. That makes paying him nearly $30MM annually a bit difficult to justify, but Utah may lack other options and it will have to hope that its younger players make significant strides toward becoming stars or its investment in Hayward will likely end up being for naught.

To Extend, or Not To Extend?

The Jazz will also need to address the contract situation of defensive-stopper Gobert, who is eligible to ink an extension this summer. The big man wasn’t quite as dominant this season as he was during his breakout campaign in 2015/16. He finished the year sidelined with ankle woes, but there has been no indication the malady is one that will linger and Gobert should be back at full strength in time for the preseason.

Utah could decide to hold off and wait for the center to hit restricted free agency next summer, or it could decide to forgo any potential drama and lock him up to a long-term pact prior to October’s deadline. Given the difficulties Utah has in attracting free agents and Gobert’s ability to control the paint with his defense, it should definitely try to work out a deal prior to the player hitting the open market. But with the salary cap set to keep escalating, Gobert may wish to try his luck in scoring a larger payout by passing on any extension. The only true negative for the Jazz in extending Gobert is that much of their cap flexibility for next summer would be eliminated, but locking up Gobert may be well worth it.

Backcourt Situation

While the team is relatively settled in its frontcourt rotation, the backcourt remains a bit of a mystery. Exum showed flashes of enormous potential during his rookie campaign, but coming off an entire missed season, it is unrealistic to expect him to make significant strides forward this coming year. Former lottery pick Burke has been a disappointment during his tenure and it may be time to get him a change of scenery, for the sake of the player as well as the team. Rodney Hood appears to be the starter at shooting guard going forward after a solid sophomore campaign, but he will have to share playing time with Burks and the newly acquired George Hill, who will also spend time at point guard.

Nabbing Hill in exchange for the No. 12 overall pick was a solid move by the team, as it needs his outside shooting, positional versatility and veteran leadership much more so than another young prospect to develop. But his addition further marginalizes Burke and creates a challenge for Snyder to find the correct combinations on a nightly basis. This isn’t the worst problem to have, but NBA players don’t always respond well to reduced playing time, so it is something that will require finesse on the part of the coaching staff to manage.

Draft Targets

As I previously mentioned, Utah jettisoned its first round pick in the Hill deal and its extremely difficult to find fault with the team’s logic. Adding a veteran who can be effective from three-point range (Hill owns a career mark of .376 from beyond the arc) fills a major need for the team, plus it leaves open roster space for more veteran additions down the line. The Jazz could likely have nabbed a decent big man with the pick, but that wouldn’t have moved the franchise any closer to contention next season.

Final Take

The Jazz enter the offseason with a roster that is essentially set for 2016/17, but still have enough available cap space to make some needed upgrades. The franchise will have some crucial calls to make regarding the future contracts of Hayward and Gobert, plus, it will also need to settle on its backcourt of the future. The return of Exum will certainly be a boon for the team, though I would caution against expecting too much out of the young guard this season given his age and inexperience. The Jazz will need to look to improve from within, as well as hope to get lucky with its free agent signings given the geographical limitations of playing Utah, if it hopes to take the next step forward. But the good news for fans of the team is that the squad looks to be in good hands under Snyder and there is enough talent present to keep things interesting.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • None

Projected Salary Cap: $94,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 21st, 2016 at 2:57pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise heading into the summer.

State Of The Franchise

Jesse Johnson / USA Today Sports Images

Jesse Johnson / USA Today Sports Images

At the start of last season, the Timberwolves were in a state of mourning. The sudden death of ex-coach and team executive Flip Saunders cast a pall over the franchise and it was difficult for everyone in the organization to overcome their grief.

As the season moved along, it was clear that Saunders’ blueprint for turning the franchise around was working. His decision to select Karl-Anthony Towns ahead of D’Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor with the No. 1 overall pick in last June’s draft accelerated the process toward making the Timberwolves a playoff contender again. Towns quickly established himself as a franchise player, averaging 18.3 points and 10.5 rebounds to earn the Rookie of the Year award.

Several other young players — Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng — showed significant development even though Minnesota finished with a 29-53 record.

Owner Glen Taylor decided to shake up the front office and find a high-profile coach to nurture the talented core into reaching its full potential. Interim coach Sam Mitchell was replaced by ex-Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau, who was also given the title of president of basketball operations. Former Spurs assistant GM and longtime Jazz executive Scott Layden was hired as Minnesota’s new GM.

Blockbuster Trade Brewing?

Thibodeau seems intent on getting an established, All-Star-caliber player to pair up with Towns. That was made clear when a report surfaced that the Timberwolves were willing to deal the No. 5 pick as part of a package to acquire Bulls star shooting guard Jimmy Butler.

It’s uncertain whether Chicago would consider moving Butler and go into full rebuild mode. Certainly, the Timberwolves would have to sweeten the pot by giving up one or more of their young assets.

Towns is obviously an untouchable but it’s not out of the question that the Timberwolves would consider moving Wiggins if Thibodeau doesn’t view him as the No. 2 scoring option on a contending team. Wiggins averaged 20.7 points in his second season but he’s not a three-point threat and his defensive box rating of minus 2.5 last season needs to improve dramatically for a defense-oriented coach like Thibodeau.

The club would almost certainly rather part with LaVine and other assets, but that might not be enough to acquire an All-Star entering his prime.

Free Agent Targets

It’s no surprise that unrestricted free agent Joakim Noah has been linked to his former coach.

Noah was unhappy with his playing time last season under first-year Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg before a shoulder injury short-circuited his season. A mobile shot-blocker like Noah would seem to be an ideal fit for a club that finished 28th in defensive field-goal percentage. Though Kevin Garnett is still on the roster, Noah would give the club another veteran leader who would play significant minutes.

The Timberwolves will have anywhere from $26-$29MM to sign other free agents with an eye toward versatile defenders and three-point shooters. The Wolves were 25th in three-point percentage last season and the addition of floor spacers will make Towns an even tougher cover in the post.

Potential Trades

Even if the plan to acquire Butler falls through, the Timberwolves figure to be active in the trade market as Thibodeau tries to reshape his roster.

A couple of Minnesota’s rotation players could be on the move. Point guard Ricky Rubio, who has three years and $42.MM remaining on his contract, would be expendable if Thibodeau isn’t sold on him as his long-term floor leader. LaVine could step into that role, or the Timberwolves could draft a point guard if they keep their pick.

Meanwhile, center Nikola Pekovic‘s career has been sidetracked by injuries and he only appeared in 12 games last season while recovering from Achilles tendon surgery. Pekovic has two years and $23.7MM remaining on his deal, but he’s a proven low-post scorer for a team lacking inside punch.

Another big man, Nemanja Bjelica, was a disappointment in his first season with the club, but was highly sought after during last summer before he signed with the Timberwolves. His remaining contract — two years, $7.75MM — makes him a movable piece.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round pick: No. 5

The Timberwolves could go in a lot of different directions if they don’t deal their pick.

They could opt for a wing shooter like Buddy Hield to improve their perimeter game. They could secure one of the top point guards, either Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray, if they’re intent on dealing Rubio. Or they could hone in on a big man such as Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender to pair up with Towns.

Other Decisions

Muhammad and Dieng are eligible for rookie-scale extensions before next season and it will interesting to see how much the new regime values that duo.

While Muhammad provides instant offense off the bench, he’s a subpar three-point shooter. Dieng is a solid defender — he sports a 2.4 defensive box rating in each of the past two seasons — and Thibodeau can’t get enough of those kinds of players.

Coaching Outlook

In stark contrast to the uncertainty surrounding Mitchell’s future last season, the Timberwolves now have an established playoff coach on a long-term contract. Thibodeau signed a five-year, $40MM deal and his front-office title makes him the unquestioned leader of the franchise.

The addition of Layden echoes what the Pistons did when hiring Stan Van Gundy with the same titles as Thibodeau. Detroit added a proven front-office executive in Jeff Bower to negotiate trades and handle most of the day-to-day front office operations. Thibodeau will work in concert with Layden, but the former Bulls coach will have the final say.

Final Take

The Timberwolves look a lot like the Thunder several years ago. They have star talents in Towns and Wiggins, a la Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, to build around. With Thibodeau in charge, they’re ready to take the next step. If they can pull off a blockbuster and pry an proven, top-tier talent away from a team looking to shake up its roster, the Wolves could find themselves in the playoffs next season.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

 

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