Offseason Preview

Offseason Outlook: Washington Wizards

June 20th, 2016 at 8:02pm CST by Arthur Hill

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Wizards never expected to be spectators at playoff time. Coming off back-to-back postseason appearances and with a strong foundation built around an elite backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal, Washington saw itself as a team on the rise in the Eastern Conference. But that rise hit a brick wall in an injury-filled 41-41 season that has transitioned into an offseason of uncertainty.

The question marks start with Beal, a restricted free agent who was limited to a career-low 55 games this season. Beyond deciding on whether to bring back their talented shooting guard, the Wizards have to quickly rebuild a rapidly aging roster to compete with a slew of young challengers in the East.

Coaching Change

The first casualty of this non-playoff season was head coach Randy Wittman, who was fired and replaced by former Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks. Wittman alienated center Marcin Gortat with public comments about his rebounding and had a deteriorating relationship with other players, so his fate was sealed once the Wizards missed the playoffs.

Brooks oversaw the Thunder as they developed into one of the top teams in the West and will bring a welcome change to the Washington locker room. He had a 338-207 record in seven seasons with OKC.

Bring Back Beal?

A recent report from Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post says the Wizards are planning to offer the 22-year-old a maximum contract when free agency begins next month. That contract would start at approximately $22MM per season and would run for five years. Beal set himself up for the massive payday when he and the Wizards mutually agreed in November not to work out an extension.

Beal was Washington’s second-leading scorer this season at 17.4 points per game and has a career scoring average of 16.0. Under normal circumstances, a max deal for a player of that caliber would be an easy decision, but Beal carries a long-term injury risk that has to make the Wizards think twice. He was placed on a minutes restriction in December when doctors discovered “the beginnings of a stress reaction” in his lower right fibula. Beal started just 35 games this season and has only once played in more than 63 in a season.

But the Wizards seem to have little choice about making a max offer if they want to keep Beal. He recently told Castillo that he considers himself a maximum-salary player and that he plans to seek such a deal from another organization if the Wizards don’t agree. “If Washington can’t meet that requirement then I may be thinking elsewhere,” Beal said. “I’m pretty sure that they probably won’t [let me go].”

No Nene?

Washington’s other major free agency decision involves veteran power forward Nene, who made $13MM this year. A calf strain hampered the 33-year-old at the start of the season, but he improved as the season progressed. Still, Nene started just 11 games and saw his playing time dip below 20 minutes per night. As a result, he averaged less than 10 points per game for the first time in eight years and fewer than five rebounds per contest for the first time in his career.

Nene recently indicated that he’s not considering retirement. He has a solid relationship with Brooks, who started as an assistant coach in Denver when Nene played there. If he returns to Washington, it will be likely be in a reserve role at a deeply discounted price.

Where Are All The Big Guys?

Free agency and non-guaranteed contracts have left Gortat and Markieff Morris as the only big men who will definitely be on Washington’s roster next season. Alan Anderson and J.J. Hickson are both free agents, while Drew Gooden‘s $3.6MM salary is not guaranteed. The need to add size will loom over all of Washington’s trade and free agency decisions.

Free Agent Targets

Washington’s dream scenario is for Kevin Durant to decide he wants to return home to the D.C. area. If that happens, the Wizards can team the former MVP with Wall and Beal to form a new Big Three that would become an immediate title contender.

Even if they don’t land Durant, the Wizards are positioned to make an impact on the free agent market. With only five players holding guaranteed contracts and a little more than $50MM committed against a $94MM salary cap, Washington is in position to offer two maximum deals. Al Horford would be a nice addition to help fill the void up front, while either Harrison Barnes or Nicolas Batum could be a long-term answer at small forward.

Filling Out The Roster

With so many roster openings, the Wizards might use some of that cap space to rebuild their bench. Jared Dudley, Ramon Sessions and Garrett Temple are free agents and are all 30 years old. Washington needs reliable backups to Wall and Beal, so Brandon Jennings, Arron Afflalo or Gerald Henderson might be in the mix. Other names to watch include Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo, Seth Curry and maybe even Ty Lawson.

Barring a late trade, no help will be coming through the draft. Washington sent its first-round pick to Phoenix in the February deal that brought back Morris, and its second-round pick belongs to Atlanta from a 2015 trade.

Final Take

This is an extremely important offseason in defining the Wizards for the remainder of the decade, and a wide range of outcomes are possible. Landing Durant would be like winning the lottery and make Washington an instant challenger to Cleveland for Eastern Conference supremacy. The nightmare scenario would be losing out on all the top free agents, re-signing Beal to a max contract and watching him struggle with leg problems for the next five years.

GM Ernie Grunfeld was spared when Wittman was dismissed after the season ended. If he wants to ensure a long-term future in Washington, Grunfeld is going to need to make some really shrewd decisions this summer.

Guaranteed Salary

John Wall ($16,957,900)
Marcin Gortat ($12,000,000)
Markieff Morris ($7,400,000)
Otto Porter ($5,893,981)
Kelly Oubre ($2,006,640)
(Martell Webster $833,334) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
Total: $45,091,855

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Drew Gooden ($3,547,000)
Jarell Eddie ($980,431)
Total: $4,527,431

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Bradley Beal ($7,471,412/$14,236,685)
Totals: $7,471,412/$14,236,685

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Nene ($19,500,000)
Jared Dudley ($8,312,500)
Alan Anderson ($4,800,000)
Ramon Sessions ($2,821,605)
J.J. Hickson ($980,431)
Garrett Temple ($980,431)
Marcus Thornton ($980,431)
Total: $38,375,398

Other Cap Holds

Will Bynum ($980,431)
Al Harrington ($980,431)
Total: $1,960,862

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Sacramento Kings

June 20th, 2016 at 12:20pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise heading into the summer.

State Of The Franchise

Ed Szczepanski / USA Today Sports Images

If nothing else, the Kings should have a more harmonious locker room in 2016/17.

Controversy swirled around coach George Karl and star player DeMarcus Cousins throughout last season. Karl nearly got fired midway through the campaign and finally got the ax after it ended. A disconnect between the front office and Karl added to the turmoil enveloping the franchise.

“There were too many distractions on and off the court,” said point guard Rajon Rondo, no stranger to controversy himself.

There are signs of better days ahead for a franchise that hasn’t visited the postseason for 10 years. They hired a much less contentious head coach to replace Karl in Dave Joerger, who guided the Grizzlies to three straight playoff appearances. They’ll also be playing in a brand new arena, the Golden 1 Center, which should boost attendance and create some positive energy.

The next step is to reshape the roster and give their fans a reason to keep coming back.

Point Of Contention

The Kings may have to find replacements for their top two point guards, Rondo and Darren Collison.

Rondo revived his career after a woeful stint with the Mavericks in 2014/15, leading the league in assists at 11.7 per game. He’s an unrestricted free agent and the Kings want him back, but apparently don’t want to get into a bidding war for his services. Rondo, who made $9.5MM in the final year of his contract, will explore all his options, though he’s not averse to re-signing as long as he’s convinced of a culture change in the organization.

Collison has a team-friendly $5.23MM contract for next season but he could face a lengthy suspension after domestic violence charges were filed against him over a May incident. Collison wasn’t a typical backup, as he averaged 14.0 points — third most on the team — and 30 minutes despite starting only 15 games.

The Kings ranked third in points scored and fourth in assists with Rondo and Collison being the main distributors. Even if they manage to re-sign Rondo, they’ll have to acquire another point guard who can play regular minutes if the league cracks down on Collison.

Building Block Or Blockbuster?

VP of Basketball Operations and GM Vlade Divac tried to quell speculation about a possible Cousins trade this summer, saying in recent interview, “He’s not going to be traded — this year for sure.”

Joerger echoed that sentiment by saying he wouldn’t have accepted the job if the team was in a full rebuild mode.

“There’s still some heavy lifting to do but some of the heavy lifting has been done,” he said. “This is not a blow it up, let’s start all over again situation.”

That still won’t end all the rumors about Cousins’ status, considering the Kings have never won more than 33 games with the big man as their centerpiece. Teams such as Celtics and Sixers have been angling to acquire a superstar for years and could put together impressive packages for Cousins, who averaged 26.9 points and 11.5 rebounds last season.

The mercurial Cousins has said all the right things since his frequent verbal sparring partner, Karl, was sent packing.

“I want to bring us back to those glory days,” said Cousins, who has two years remaining on his contract.

Free Agent Targets

The Kings will be hanging up a “Help Wanted” sign and with only $61.3MM committed to guaranteed salaries, they’ll have plenty of salary cap space to pursue top free agents.

Naturally, they’re not a prime destination and some free agents may not want to put up with the volatile Cousins. Thus, the Kings may have to overpay to land a player they covet.

Would Mike Conley consider joining his former head coach in Sacramento? Unlikely, but Joerger’s presence gives the Kings a glimmer of hope toward landing the top free agent point guard on this year’s market.

Beyond Conley and Rondo, there are only second-tier options such as Jeremy Lin and Brandon Jennings.

The Kings, who gave up the most points in the league last season, also need to acquire some veteran defenders to instill toughness. A player like shooting guard Courtney Lee, whom Joerger coached in Memphis, would be a good fit.

Potential Trades

Even if the Kings live up to their vow to retain Cousins, they will likely be active on the trade market.

Rudy Gay, who will make $13.3MM next season and holds a player option on the final year of his deal, will be easier to move with the salary-cap jump coming this summer. Ben McLemore could also get sent packing to a suitor willing to take a chance on the disappointing lottery pick.

Marco Belinelli has two years left on his deal but with shooting at a premium around the league, he could also draw interest.

Draft Outlook

First-round pick: No. 8
Second-round pick: No. 59

The Kings brass is reportedly enamored with Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield, who would be an immediate upgrade at shooting guard. However, there’s certainly no guarantee he’ll still be on the board when the No. 8 pick comes up. They may have to trade up to get him.

Otherwise, the Kings are expected to shop the pick for a more experienced rotation player.

Coaching Outlook

There’s a lot more stability along the sidelines than on the roster, as Joerger signed a four-year, $16MM contract. He has promised to work closely with the front office and end the discord that was so prevalent during the Karl era. How he’ll mesh with Cousins is the big unknown. The jury is still out on whether Cousins will respond better to a players’ coach like Joerger or a no-nonsense type like ex-Kings coach Michael Malone.

Final Take

The Kings seem content to build around Cousins for the time being and hope that he matures into a true leader. They can always explore trades for him during the season if that doesn’t happen.

The bigger issue is that they have question marks at every other spot on the roster. The front office will have make a series of shrewd moves to obtain quality pieces and end the playoff drought. It’s easy to be skeptical of that happening.

Guaranteed Salary

DeMarcus Cousins ($16,957,900)
Rudy Gay ($13,333,333)
Kosta Koufos ($8,046,500)
Marco Belinelli ($6,333,333)
Darren Collison ($5,229,454)
Ben McLemore ($4,008,882)
Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,551,160)
Omri Casspi ($2,963,814)
(Wayne Ellington $882,630) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
Total: $61,307,006

Player Options

Caron Butler ($1,551,659)

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Duje Dukan ($874,636)

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Seth Curry ($1,215,696/$1,215,696)¹
Eric Moreland ($1,180,431/$1,180,431)
Totals: ($2,396,127/$2,396,127)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Rajon Rondo ($11,400,000)
Quincy Acy ($980,431)¹
James Anderson ($980,431)¹
Total: $13,360,862

Other Cap Holds

No. 8 pick ($2,451,200)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

Curry, Acy, and Anderson all declined player options for 2016/17.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks

June 19th, 2016 at 4:46pm CST by Will Joseph

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

Not many experts and analysts believed the Mavs would make the playoffs this past season, but Dallas defied expectations and, indeed, made the postseason for the 15th time in the last 16 years. It was another first round exit for the Mavs, but considering the team experienced an odd summer and was again led by an aging star in Dirk Nowitzki, this had to be considered a success.

It appeared the Mavs on their way toward locking up DeAndre Jordan to their core of Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons. Jordan, however, balked in the 11th hour and re-signed with the Clippers. The Mavs did land Wesley Matthews via free agency, though, and then shifted gears by acquiring Zaza Pachulia in a salary dump from the Bucks. The Mavs made, perhaps, one of the shrewdest decisions of last summer by inking Deron Williams, who intends to opt out.

While Matthews was mostly inconsistent, Pachulia gave the Mavs pretty much what they could have expected and Williams over-performed in system that included other point guards J.J. Barea, Raymond Felton and Devin Harris. Nowitzki remained a capable player and dependable scorer by averaging 18.3 points per game and as long as the 38-year-old is still a fixture on the team, the Mavs will not be rebuilding. Instead, look for the Mavs to retool and add veteran talent. The Mavs will again need another steady season from Nowitzki, who is expected to opt out and re-sign, and above average contributions from the point guard position to exceed expectations. As it stands now, the Mavs must also address their rebounding deficiency; they ranked 19th in the league in rebounds per game and finished 26th in rebounding percentage.

Free Agents

The salary cap puzzle for the Mavs this summer depends largely on three player options worth more than $30MM. Chandler Parsons will almost certainly decline his to seek more on the open market, and Nowitzki has said he plans to opt in as long as the Mavs don’t start a rebuilding project. Pachulia, Felton, Charlie Villanueva and David Lee will all hit the market as unrestricted free agents when free agency begins on July 1st. Second-year standout Dwight Powell will be a restricted free agent, giving the Mavs an opportunity to match any offer for the coveted young pro. Mavs president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson has said that the front office will prioritize re-signing free agents, which makes considering the group seemed to mesh well together.

Williams, an 11-year veteran who turns 32 in June likely needs offseason surgery to address a sports hernia. The Jeff Schwartz client said in the aftermath of the Mavs’ playoff ouster this week that he’d love to return to Dallas, and coach Rick Carlisle said he’d also like to see him return. Nelson pointed to what he saw as a renewed sense of enthusiasm in Williams’ play this season, the first for Williams with the Mavericks

There is a decent chance Parsons finds a more lucrative deal on the open market if he opts out. He sustained another serious injury last season, but that should not stop Parsons from landing what is likely to be his final significant pay day. It will be interesting to see if the Mavs re-sign the versatile forward because they already have a stretch-four in Nowitzki. It seems likely Lee could garner some interest as a bench player from other teams after he thrived with Dallas late in the season. Look for Felton, who rejuvenated his career, to return on a cheap deal and Villanueva could return for the veteran minimum. With Salah Mejri and JaVale McGee on the roster, it would not be surprising if Powell did not return if he were to land a significant offer elsewhere.

Free Agent Targets

The Mavs can offer one max contract to free agents this summer and possibly a second if Nowitzki and Parsons follow Williams and opt out for next season, as Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post recently detailed. Dallas entered the offseason expecting to have at least $32MM to spend, but that number could rise closer to $60MM if Nowitzki, Parsons and Williams all opt out. Bontemps noted that Dallas is counting on landing an elite free agent this summer and added that owner Mark Cuban is trying to surround Nowitzki, who’s likely to remain, with as much talent as possible before he retires.

If the Mavs do not re-sign Williams, they would need an upgrade at point guard. Jeremy Lin, Brandon Jennings and Greivis Vasquez all would make sense as options. Dallas would also need a scorer on the wing and a veteran that comes to mind would be Eric Gordon. If the Mavs decide to splurge a bit, Nic Batum would not be a far-fetched option.

Draft Outlook

Second-round pick: 46th

The Mavericks do not own a first-round pick in the 2016 Draft, as that pick belongs to the Celtics as part of the Rajon Rondo deal. Barring a deal, the Mavs’ only pick is No. 46 in the second round, so Dallas is not expected to make a whole lot of noise here. Indiana forward Troy Williams and Maryland big man Robert Carter Jr. are two names to watch as they have been linked to the Mavs in workouts and meeting. Of note, Purdue center A.J. Hammons is the No. 46 ranked player in ESPN.com’s Chad Ford’s Top 100.

Final Take

Dallas seems to be in a similar position it was in heading into last summer. The Mavs still need to find an answer at point guard, would need another big man and are unsure what to expect on the wing. Look for the Mavs to re-sign the core group of their bench players and upgrade at point guard. Dallas needs someone on the roster to emerge as capable scorer to take some of the load off of Nowitzki. As long as Nowitzki is on the team, the front office will build a team that is in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Guaranteed Salary

Wesley Matthews ($17,145,838)
Devin Harris ($4,227,996)
J.J. Barea ($4,096,950)
Justin Anderson ($1,514,160)
Jeremy Evans ($1,227,286)
(Maurice Ndour $437,318) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
(Gal Mekel $315,759) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
Total: $28,965,307

Player Options

Chandler Parsons ($16,023,000)
Dirk Nowitzki ($8,692,184)
Deron Williams ($5,621,026)
Total: $30,336,210

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

JaVale McGee ($1,403,611)
Salah Mejri ($874,636)
Total: $2,278,247

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Dwight Powell ($1,180,431/$1,180,431)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Chandler Parsons ($19,969,950) — Pending player option
Dirk Nowitzki ($12,500,001) — Pending player option
Zaza Pachulia ($9,880,000)
Raymond Felton ($7,505,595)
Deron Williams ($6,454,769) — Pending player option
David Lee ($2,502,805)
Charlie Villanueva ($980,431)
Total: $59,793,551

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Pelicans

June 19th, 2016 at 1:02pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

The Pelicans were decimated by injuries this past season. Eric Gordon was sidelined for 37 games. Anthony Davis missed 21 games, while Tyreke Evans sat out 57. Jrue Holiday missed 17 and was limited in more than half of the contests he did play. The result was a 30-win campaign that exposed the team’s lack of depth.

Benny Sieu / USA TODAY Sports

The team was in that position due to the moves it made in previous offseasons. New Orleans doubled down on the center position last summer, handing out a four-year, $20MM deal to Alexis Ajinca and five-year, slightly less than $53MM deal to Omar Asik. Asik’s contract is one of the worst in the league, though the rising cap should help mitigate having it on the books. Even so, for a team that employs Davis and has plenty of other needs, spending so heavily on the center position was a foolish decision.

Ever since the Pelicans drafted Davis, they’ve been determined to speed up the timeline of putting together a winning team around their No.1 overall pick. They traded two first-round picks for Holiday and dealt another for Asik during Dell Demps’ time as GM. The franchise would have been in better position had it had kept those selections. Nerlens Noel, Elfrid Payton and Sam Dekker were the players selected with those picks. The Pelicans likely would not have made the playoffs last season with those youngsters, and there’s no guarantee that they would have picked all three of those players had they kept the selections. In fact, they likely would been in worse position in the standings over the past several years had they not made the trades, which would have led them to receiving better picks in each of the 2014 and 2015 drafts. Having three developing players on rookie contracts in place of Holiday and Asik would have improved their cap situation going forward as well as given them a chance of injecting themselves into trade talks for potentially available All-Stars such as Jimmy Butler or Jeff Teague.

As it stands, the Pelicans have a core with a limited ceiling. Davis may very well win the MVP award one day and carry his team deep into the playoffs. Beyond him, there arguably isn’t an All-Star caliber player on the roster. Thursday’s draft likely represents the team’s best shot at acquiring a long-term running mate for Davis.

Draft Outlook

First-round picks: 6th
Second-round picks: 39th, 4oth

Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray could be targets at No. 6. Either player would fit nicely next to Holiday in the backcourt, though Murray could potentially replace Holiday as the starting point guard down the road, as I outlined in his Prospect Profile. The draft is unpredictable after the No.2 pick, so both players could gone by the time New Orleans is on the clock. The team could also go with Jaylen Brown, and he would be a tremendous addition via the No.6 pick. It’s possible that Hield, Murray and Brown come off the board right before the Pelicans are on the clock, but it’s likely at least one of those players fall to them.

This is a deep draft in terms of the amount of prospects who are projected to become at least rotation-level players. The Pelicans may be able to pick up a couple role players with their two second-round picks, which would benefit the team greatly.

Free Agents

Gordon is an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, and he may have played his last game as a Pelican. In 2012, Gordon signed an offer sheet presented by the Suns and claimed his heart was in Phoenix. New Orleans matched anyway and Gordon became a subject of trade rumors for the ensuing four years. Gordon has since backed off those comments and acknowledged that he should have handled the situation differently. From a basketball standpoint, he hasn’t meshed well with Evans and Holiday. That, coupled with his inability to stay on the court, should have the franchise looking for a new shooting guard.

The Pelicans would like to keep Ryan Anderson, but his price tag may keep them from doing so. New Orleans isn’t in position to give Anderson max or near max contract, and if he receives one on the open market, which is a good possibility, he’ll likely be suiting up for a new team next season. Anderson will be eligible for the middle-tier max, which is projected to be approximately $25.4MM. The team simply can’t afford to bring Anderson back on that kind of contract.

Davis’ Extension

Davis signed a max extension last offseason that will go into effect this upcoming year. He had an opportunity this season to trigger the Fifth-Year 30% Max Criteria, which is also known as the Derrick Rose Rule. He wasn’t named to an All-NBA team this past season nor was he voted as a starter in the All-Star game. Davis also didn’t win the MVP award, so he failed to meet any of the criteria and as a result, he will make roughly 25% of the salary cap in the first year of his five-year deal rather than nearly 30%. While I’m sure the team wanted to reward its franchise player with as much salary as possible, it’s now in better position to improve the talent around him because of the cap space it saved.

Free Agent Targets

Adding a top-tier free agent, such as DeMar DeRozan or Mike Conley, probably isn’t going to happen. Nicolas Batum would be a great fit with this team, but he’ll have no shortage of suitors, which will probably lead him to receiving a deal near the max elsewhere. More likely, the team will have to look at the next tier of free agents in order to add talent.

Danny Ferry, whom the team hired as a special advisor earlier this month, was reportedly a big fan of Kent Bazemore during his time in Atlanta. Signing Bazemore is a gamble, as I discussed in the Grizzlies’ Offseason Outlook, but he could grow into the type of player who outperforms his next deal. If the Pelicans can snag the small forward at an annual salary of $12MM-14MM, they could still add a few other pieces via free agency.

Evan Fournier is another option who would fit in with the franchise both on the court and on the cap sheet. I speculate that the shooting guard will command a deal with annual salaries in that $12MM-14MM range. That’s a reasonable price given the league’s current climate, but he’s a restricted free agent, so the Magic could match any offer.

New Orleans should be looking to add a few pieces to its existing core provided it doesn’t trade away Evans or Holiday. Adding a potential starter, such as Bazemore or Fournier, in addition to a couple of role players would make for a successful offseason. Courtney Lee, Gerald Henderson and Mario Chalmers are among the players whom the Pelicans could look at when filling out their bench.

Final Take

Davis is progressing toward becoming one of the best players in the league, and if he reaches that pinnacle, it will overshadow some of the team’s deficiencies. Outside shooting and perimeter defense are areas that the team should address. This offseason needs to be about surrounding Davis with players who can help him elevate this team, but unless the Pelicans can pull off a deal that brings them a second perennial All-Star, the team can only go so far.

Guaranteed Salary

Anthony Davis ($21,597,000)¹
Jrue Holiday ($11,286,518)
Tyreke Evans ($10,203,755)
Omer Asik ($9,904,494)
Alexis Ajinca ($4,638,203)
Quincy Pondexter ($3,617,978)
Dante Cunningham ($2,978,250)
Luke Babbitt ($200,000) — Partial guarantee; non-guaranteed portion listed below²
Total: $64,426,198

Player Options

Alonzo Gee ($1,379,400)

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Toney Douglas ($1,315,448)
Luke Babbitt ($1,027,286) — Partial guarantee; guaranteed portion listed above²
Bryce Dejean-Jones ($874,636)³
Total: $3,217,370

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

James Ennis ($1,180,431/$1,180,431)
Tim Frazier ($1,180,431/$1,180,431)
Totals: ($2,360,862/$2,360,862)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Eric Gordon ($23,271,047)
Ryan Anderson ($12,750,000)
Norris Cole ($5,770,163)
Jordan Hamilton ($980,431)
Kendrick Perkins ($980,431)
Total: $43,752,072

Other Cap Holds

No. 6 pick ($2,931,000)

Projected Salary Cap: $94,000,000

Footnotes:

Davis’ exact salary on his max contract won’t be determined until July. This figure represents an estimation.
Babbitt’s full $1,227,286 salary would become guaranteed on July 12th.
Dejean-Jones died in May, but his contract will remain on the Pelicans’ books until the team makes a roster move.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 18th, 2016 at 10:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

The Thunder’s season ended in disappointment, as a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference Finals gave way to three straight Golden State wins and a barrage of Klay Thompson three-pointers. Still, it’s unfair to consider Oklahoma City’s season a disappointment on the whole.

Before being bounced from the playoffs by the Warriors, the Thunder earned the No. 3 seed behind two historically great teams that averaged 70 regular-season wins apiece. Oklahoma City ultimately dispatched one of those two teams – the Spurs – from the postseason before very nearly eliminating the other. If a couple more breaks had gone the Thunder’s way, we could very well be discussing their postseason run as one of the greatest of all time, rather than looking back and wondering how they failed to finish off Golden State.

It’s possible that the Thunder’s 2016 playoff run represented the last time we’ll see this group together, but it would be a bit of a shock if that were the case, as we’ll outline below.

Priority No. 1 (and No. 2 and No. 3): Re-Sign KD

With apologies to LeBron James, whose potential free agency hasn’t generated the same sort of discussion that it has in years past, no free-agent-to-be has been the subject of more speculation and rumors than Kevin Durant. It’s the first time Durant will be eligible for free agency, and there’s an expectation that he’ll be open to hearing pitches from potential suitors.

It remains to be seen exactly how open Durant will be — will only one or two teams besides the Thunder get an audience with the former MVP, or will he be willing to give every interested club a shot? The latter approach could certainly prolong his decision, since it’s possible that 15 or 20 teams will have interest in making a play for Durant, and most clubs will have the cap space necessary to land him.

Ultimately though, there are two key factors that should push Durant back to Oklahoma City after he tests the open market. For one, there simply aren’t many teams around the NBA that are as championship-ready as the Thunder. Only the Spurs and Warriors, both of whom are believed to be eyeing Durant, could make a convincing case that adding KD would make them the prohibitive favorite for the 2017 title, and Durant may not want to simply jump ship to one of the Thunder’s biggest rivals.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, no team can offer the kind of money to Durant that Oklahoma City can. Whether the 27-year-old wants to sign a long-term contract right away or a year from now – when that max contract will likely be worth significantly more, as we’ve previously outlined – it makes the most sense for him to re-up with Thunder, who can offer more years and higher raises than any rival suitor.

Those factors don’t make OKC a lock to re-sign Durant — anything can happen in free agency. But barring a drastic turn of events, the Thunder will head into July as the frontrunners in the KD sweepstakes.

The Other Free Agents

Durant isn’t the Thunder’s only free agent, but he’s clearly the most important one, and his decision will have a trickle-down effect on all the other moves the team makes this offseason. If Durant elects to sign elsewhere, Oklahoma City will have a major hole to fill in its frontcourt, and would have the cap room necessary to add an impact player. But if we’re assuming Durant returns, the Thunder will likely turn their attention to filling out their roster with complementary pieces, and that could mean re-signing Dion Waiters, who is eligible for restricted free agency.

Waiters, acquired in a trade a year and a half ago, isn’t an ideal bench piece for the Thunder. His shooting percentage has been below 40% since he arrived in Oklahoma City, and his PER slipped to single digits in 2015/16. With Durant and Russell Westbrook rarely both on the bench at the same time, Waiters’ ability to create his own shot and score points for the second unit isn’t as valuable as it otherwise might have been, and OKC might be better off with a pure shooter in that spot instead.

However, if Durant re-signs, the Thunder will be right up against the salary cap threshold. Even parting ways with Anthony Morrow – who has a non-guaranteed salary – wouldn’t create much more room under the cap than an over-the-cap OKC squad would have with the mid-level exception at its disposal. So even though allowing Waiters to depart in free agency would free up a roster spot, it wouldn’t necessarily free up any more spending flexibility for the Thunder. That may be why GM Sam Presti has indicated he’s optimistic about bringing back both Waiters and Morrow.

Randy Foye and Nazr Mohammed are unrestricted free agents for the Thunder, but I don’t expect either player to re-sign, unless it’s for the minimum. Mohammed may be headed for retirement, while Foye set new career-lows in FG% and 3PT% in 2015/16.

Looking To The Future

One important consideration for Durant as he decides on his next contract will be the Thunder’s plan for the future. Two years after the former second overall pick agreed to his first contract extension with Oklahoma City, the team sent James Harden to Houston, so Durant will want to know if any such moves are on the horizon this time around.

Durant surely recognizes that the current roster is getting expensive, with several of his teammates eligible for free agency a year from now, so he’ll want to know how the Thunder intend to address the cap crunch. Even with the cap on the rise, retaining Durant, Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter, Steven Adams, and Andre Roberson for the long-term probably isn’t tenable.

The Thunder are unlikely to make any moves related to Westbrook or Ibaka this offseason, but Adams and Roberson will both be extension-eligible for the first time, so the club will have to determine whether it makes sense to lock up either player before they hit restricted free agency. Both Adams and Roberson have emerged as crucial cogs in the Thunder’s rotation, with Adams providing rebounding, rim protection, and toughness, while Roberson is an excellent defender whose three-point shooting has improved.

Of the two players, Adams is expected to be the Thunder’s top priority, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be extended this year. The team will be able to match any rival offer for the big man next summer, so it could be prudent to wait to see what happens at that point with Westbrook and Ibaka, rather than prematurely locking in a big new deal for Adams.

Filling Out The Roster

The Thunder haven’t been very active in free agency in recent years, preferring to build their roster by drafting and making trades, then re-signing their own players. The team usually only has the mid-level exception at its disposal, so that inactivity isn’t surprising. Still, if there was ever a year to use that full MLE to add one more player to the roster, this might be the year.

In the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder made just 55 three-pointers to Golden State’s 90, and shot only 32.2% on their three-point attempts, compared to 39.6% for the Warriors. It’s probably unfair to expect OKC to match up with the greatest three-point shooting team of all time in that department, but players like Morrow and Foye, brought in to fill that role, were mostly non-existent in the Conference Finals. Using the mid-level exception to pursue a free agent like Jared Dudley or Courtney Lee, who could more reliably make those open shots created by Durant and Westbrook, seems logical.

If the MLE isn’t enough to attract a free agent of that caliber, given the rising salary cap, the Thunder could also explore the trade route. Former first-round picks like Mitch McGary and Josh Huestis aren’t part of OKC’s rotation, having spent a good chunk of last season in the D-League, and could be packaged with Kyle Singler and/or draft picks in a trade. Of course, it wasn’t long ago that Singler looked like a possible solution to the Thunder’s three-point woes, so perhaps the team prefers to hang onto him in hopes of a bounce-back season. The club may also still envision McGary and Huestis as inexpensive rotation players for the future.

Final Take

Durant’s decision will dictate what sort of summer it is in Oklahoma City. If he returns, this team remains a championship contender, even without any other real changes. If he bolts, Presti will have some challenging decisions to make, particularly with Westbrook set to enter the last year of his contract.

Guaranteed Salary

Russell Westbrook ($17,769,374)
Enes Kanter ($17,145,838)
Serge Ibaka ($12,250,000)
Kyle Singler ($4,837,500)
Nick Collison ($3,750,000)
Steven Adams ($3,140,517)
Andre Roberson ($2,183,072)
Cameron Payne ($2,112,480)
Mitch McGary ($1,526,040)
Josh Huestis ($1,191,480)
Total: $65,906,301

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Anthony Morrow ($3,488,000)

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Dion Waiters ($6,777,589/$12,846,075)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Kevin Durant ($25,894,800)¹
Randy Foye ($5,956,500)
Nazr Mohammed ($980,431)
Total: $32,831,731

Other Cap Holds

Derek Fisher ($980,431)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

The cap hold for Durant will be the maximum salary for a veteran of 7-9 seasons. The number shown here is an estimate based on the projected cap figure.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Denver Nuggets

June 18th, 2016 at 2:24pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of the Franchise

Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports Images

For the third straight year the Nuggets ended the season with a sub-.500 record and a trip to the NBA draft lottery. But despite the lack of success in the standings, Denver is a team on the rise, stocked with a deep roster, ample cap room, three first round picks in this year’s draft and a solid head coach in Michael Malone.

It’s difficult to gauge just how talented Denver can be as a team, given the myriad injuries suffered by the team’s top players the past few years. The Nuggets’ three highest-paid players, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler, each missed some – or all – of the 2015/16 campaign due to injuries. While Faried has been a relatively healthy player during his career, it has gotten to the point where it would be foolish to bank on either Gallinari or Chandler playing a full season’s worth of games given their respective track records. While there’s no denying that the pair are talented players who can light up the scoreboard when they are on the court, it may time for the franchise to consider moving on from one or both players in order to foster greater roster/rotation stability and continuity.

The Nuggets are also still seeking a star player to build around, not having had a true alpha since dealing away a disgruntled Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks during the 2010/11 campaign. While the team weathered his departure reasonably well the two seasons following the trade, the NBA has always been a star-driven league and despite their solid depth, the Nuggets were never true threats to bring home an NBA title during those years. If the team is to truly move forward as an organization, Denver will need to add a star-caliber player this offseason via free agency, the trade market or the draft.

What To Do With the Manimal?

Faried is a high-energy player whose style of play endeared him to fans and led team management to ink him to a four-year, $50MM extension in 2014. While that pact is likely to look like a bargain after this summer’s free agent deals are handed out, there is a question of fit for Faried. With the NBA moving further away from traditional big men who patrol the paint, Faried’s skill set doesn’t quite fit with the times. He is still a solid rebounder and hustle player in the paint, but his offensive game has not evolved since he arrived in the league back in 2011/12. This past season, Faried played his fewest minutes since his rookie campaign while seeing his scoring, rebounding and defense decline slightly from his previous seasons.

The 26-year-old’s lack of a perimeter game wouldn’t be as big an issue if his teammates were better at connecting on their outside shots, which would then allow Faried to do what he does best — create havoc in the paint area with his energy and rebounding. Full seasons from Gallinari and Chandler would certainly go a long way toward this end, but as I previously mentioned, counting on that duo to remain on the court isn’t a realistic approach.

It may be in the team’s best interests to explore the trade market for the Manimal. Faried can be a valuable contributor on the right team, but the Nuggets may not be the best spot for him any longer. Denver has other frontcourt combinations it can try, including playing Chandler (if healthy) at the four spot, which would give the squad an interesting stretch-four option. I cannot envision Faried being content with a sixth man role in Denver, but he may be amenable to doing so for a contending team. Trading away Faried may be the best option for both the Nuggets and the player in the long run.

Free Agent Targets

Even if Darrell Arthur opts out of his contract, the Nuggets will have just three unrestricted free agents from this year’s roster – Arthur, D.J. Augustin, and Mike Miller – and none of them are crucial, long-term pieces. That leaves Denver with 12 contracts (nine guaranteed) on its books for 2016/17 and no glaring holes to fill, but there’s still plenty of room for the club to get involved in free agency if opportunities arise.

The Nuggets will have enough cap flexibility this offseason to add a max salary player, but with the team not being seen as contenders and Denver not a destination city for free agents, doing so will be a tall order. One realistic target for the team is Ryan Anderson, who is perhaps the best stretch-four on the open market this summer. Anderson is almost assuredly going to be overpaid on his next deal and it may make sense for Denver to be the ones to do so. If the bidding on Anderson becomes too intense, or the player decides he doesn’t want to come to Denver, Hornets unrestricted free agent Marvin Williams would be a good (and cheaper) fallback option.

Denver also needs to add wing players who can stretch the floor with their outside shooting, especially if Emmanuel Mudiay is unable to improve his perimeter game. The team could try to navigate the waters of restricted free agency and make a run at signing Bradley Beal or Evan Fournier, though the likelihood of landing either is remote. Also, Beal has his own set of injury concerns and the Nuggets may not want to risk adding another player likely to spend significant time in street clothes during games. The draft is a more likely avenue for the team to address this need.

Draft Targets

There isn’t likely going to be a star-caliber player available at pick No. 7, so Denver should seriously consider trying to move up in the draft. Both Boston (No. 3) and Phoenix (No. 4) are reportedly considering trading down, though it is unclear just how much the Nuggets would need to give up to make the jump into the top five. If Denver stands pat, I believe it will target backcourt help, unless Dragan Bender or Jaylen Brown are still on the board at No. 7 overall, then all bets are off. But that’s a development not likely to come to pass given the pre-draft buzz surrounding both of those players.

If the Nuggets stay where they are at in the first round, their two top targets will almost certainly be Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray. Hield should be ready to contribute from day one and would fit alongside Mudiay rather nicely. He would certainly provide the outside shooting the team desperately needs, though I don’t see him developing into a star player during the course of his career. Murray has a higher upside and can play both backcourt spots, but he will take longer to develop and contribute than Hield will. Denver could also look to add a stretch four if the top guards are off the board and Marquese Chris, Henry Ellenson and Skal Labissere are all viable candidates for that role.

In Conclusion

There’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic if you are a Nuggets fan. While the team, barring an unexpected free agent windfall, isn’t expected to make the playoffs in 2016/17, better things are ahead in the Mile High City. Mudiay, Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris are a solid young core to build around, Malone appears to be the right man for the job and the franchise has some enticing pieces to use as trade bait. Injuries will always be a concern and the team may be better served to part ways with one or more of the injury prone players on its roster. But this a club that has plenty of viable and realistic options to explore in order to improve itself, which should make for an exciting summer in Denver.

Guaranteed Salary

Danilo Gallinari ($15,050,000)
Kenneth Faried ($12,078,652)
Wilson Chandler ($11,233,146)
Jameer Nelson ($4,540,525)
Will Barton ($3,533,333)
Emmanuel Mudiay ($3,241,800)
Jusuf Nurkic ($1,921,320)
Gary Harris ($1,655,880)
Nikola Jokic ($1,358,500)
(Nick Johnson $980,431)
Total: $55,593,587

Player Options

Darrell Arthur ($2,940,630)

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Joffrey Lauvergne ($1,709,719)
JaKarr Sampson ($980,431)
Axel Toupane ($874,636)
Total: $3,564,786

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

D.J. Augustin ($3,900,000)
Mike Miller ($980,431)
Total: $4,880,431

Other Cap Holds

No. 7 pick ($2,675,700)
No. 15 pick ($1,656,200)
No. 19 pick ($1,356,100)
Total: $5,688,000

Projected Salary Cap: $94,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2016 at 1:35pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise heading into the summer.

State Of The Franchise

Logan Bowles / USA Today Sports Images

The Magic find themselves in a familiar spot this summer. They’re stuck in the lottery after coming off another last-place finish, searching to find ways to turn things around and hoping a new coach will make a difference.

Orlando did win 10 more games this past season than in 2014/15 but that still left it 12 games under .500. The frequent trips to the lottery haven’t produced an All-Star talent, a clearcut No. 1 scoring option or an unquestioned leader.

The front office thought it could accelerate the rebuilding process by hiring a no-nonsense, defensive-minded coach last summer in Scott Skiles. But the Magic’s defense improved only marginally, finishing 20th in defensive field-goal percentage and 18th in points allowed. Skiles didn’t connect with his young players, clashed with GM Rob Hennigan and ultimately resigned after the season.

By hiring ex-Pacers coach Frank Vogel as his replacement, Orlando’s front office mitigated the damage caused by Skiles’ sudden departure. The task at hand now is to acquire some impact players to get the Magic back into the postseason after a four-year drought.

Money Is No Object

The Magic have made their objective clear — they want to land top-flight free agents. They have enough salary-cap space to make that happen.

Orlando has the ability to free up as much as $46MM to spend on free agents and make trades, thanks to a couple of deadline deals that more than doubled its potential salary-cap space.

It quickly soured on forward Tobias Harris, who re-signed with the club as a restricted free agent last summer, and acquired two veterans from the Pistons (Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova) that it can clear off its books prior to free agency. Sending reserve forward Channing Frye to the Cavaliers for a future draft choice freed up more money.

“We’ve been very open about what we’ve been going through and the fact that we’ve been building through the draft,” CEO Alex Martins told the Orlando Sentinel. “I think we’re being very open about the fact that in order to take that next step we have to inject veteran leadership.”

The tricky part is to sell free agents on a franchise that has been spinning its wheels since the end of the Dwight Howard–Stan Van Gundy era.

Free Agent Targets

Orlando’s biggest need is to fill the vacancy created by the Harris trade, preferably with a top-notch veteran. That could be either a power or small forward, since Aaron Gordon can play either spot. Gordon showed he could do more than just dunk after the All-Star break, averaging 12.0 points and 7.3 rebounds.

Forget about Kevin Durant, who’s not going to consider a rebuilding team. The Magic might have a shot at another All-Star level forward, or at least a proven veteran.

They made a strong push to sign Paul Millsap last summer and came up empty. They will undoubtedly make a big run this summer at Millsap’s frontcourt partner in Atlanta, Al Horford. He would instantly turn them into a playoff contender with his all-around skills and leadership.

If that fails, they could chase prolific outside shooter such as Ryan Anderson, Chandler Parsons or Marvin Williams, though it’s highly questionable whether Anderson would consider a second stint with Orlando after the team dealt him to New Orleans four years ago in a sign-and-trade.

Another intriguing possibility is Horford’s ex-University of Florida teammate, Bulls power forward/center Joakim Noah. He’d provide the defensive presence the team has sorely lacked in recent years.

Even if the team plans on a Victor Oladipo–Elfrid Payton pairing for the long-term, they need to fortify their backcourt with a veteran shooter and/or ballhandler. The pool of backcourt free agents isn’t as deep as the frontcourt options and they may have to fill those needs via the trade route.

Free Agent Decisions

The team will likely decline its option on Ilyasova’s $8.4MM contract for next season. Jennings and reserve forward Jason Smith will become unrestricted free agents and they’re nothing more than fallback options.

Orlando has to decide whether to extend qualifying offers to three players. They plan to make those offers to swingman Evan Fournier and center Dewayne Dedmon, which would make them restricted free agents. It’s unclear whether they have a similar interest in retaining Andrew Nicholson. Hennigan has stated that re-signing Fournier is a top priority. The caveat is they may have to pay a hefty price, since it’s quite conceivable he could receive a eye-popping offer sheet designed to pry him away.

Potential Trades

The Magic’s desire to make trades will depend upon how successful they are in the free agent market. They’d probably have to trade away a starter or last year’s lottery pick, Mario Hezonja, to make something big happen.

Draft Outlook

First-round pick: No. 11
Second-round pick: No. 41
Second-round pick: No. 47

The Magic will lean toward adding a frontcourt piece if they don’t deal away their lottery pick. Current mock drafts by ESPN.com’s Chad Ford and Draft Express’ Jonathan Givony have the Magic selecting Kentucky freshman power forward Skal Labissiere, who would at least provide some much-needed shot blocking.

Coaching Outlook

Vogel received a four-year, $22MM contract and seems like a better fit to nurture the team’s young talent than the abrasive Skiles. Vogel wants to make better use of the team’s versatility and athleticism by employing more small-ball lineups.

Final Take

The Magic have failed repeatedly in the lottery to find a superstar but they have accumulated enough talent to get back in the playoff hunt. It’s all predicated on convincing at least one high-level free agent to sign on the dotted line. If they strike out and have to fill out the roster with veteran role players, there’s a good chance they’ll be right back in the lottery next summer.

Guaranteed Salary

Nikola Vucevic ($11,750,000)
Victor Oladipo ($6,552,960)
C.J. Watson ($5,000,000)
Aaron Gordon ($4,351,320)
Mario Hezonja ($3,909,840)
Elfrid Payton ($2,613,600)
Shabazz Napier ($1,350,120)
Ersan Ilyasova ($400,000) — Partial guarantee; non-guaranteed portion listed below¹
Total: $35,927,840

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Ersan Ilyasova ($8,000,000) — Partial guarantee; guaranteed portion listed above¹
Devyn Marble ($980,431)
Total: $8,980,431

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Evan Fournier ($4,433,683/$5,720,513)
Andrew Nicholson ($3,394,726/$5,951,483)
Dewayne Dedmon ($1,215,696/$1,215,696)
Totals: $9,044,105/$12,887,692

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Brandon Jennings ($12,516,746)
Jason Smith ($5,160,000)
Total: $17,676,746

Other Cap Holds

No. 11 pick ($2,033,500)
Fran Vazquez ($2,033,500)
Total: $4,067,000

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

Ilyasova’s full $8,400,000 salary will become guaranteed if he’s still on the roster on July 1st.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Bucks

June 16th, 2016 at 11:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise heading into the summer.

State Of The Franchise

Jeff Hanisch / USA Today Sports Images

The Bucks came into the 2015/16 season with high expectations after finishing at .500 the previous year, reaching the playoffs and then signing coveted free agent center Greg Monroe during the summer. Instead of meeting those expectations, the Bucks took a big step backward, wallowing in last place in the Central Division and winding up 16 games under .500.

Milwaukee does have some quality young players pieces to build around, most notably Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 6’11” Antetokounmpo was a revelation after becoming the team’s primary ballhandler, recording five triple-doubles after the All-Star break. Having a 21-year-old point guard as tall as a center makes him a matchup nightmare for opponents, though Antetokounmpo needs to improve his shooting.

The second pick in the 2014 draft, Jabari Parker, bounced back from a season-ending knee injury during his rookie campaign to average 18.9 points and 6.6 rebounds after the All-Star break. The shooting guard spot is also in good, young hands, as Khris Middleton averaged a career-high 18.2 points and shot 39.6% on 3-point attempts.

Now, GM John Hammond must find better pieces to surround his budding stars. There are plenty of areas for improvement. The Bucks need to develop a defensive mindset, upgrade their perimeter shooting, become a better rebounding team, and add veteran savvy to the mix. They finished 17th in defensive field-goal percentage, 21st in 3-point percentage, and 25th in rebounding.

Big Man Dilemma

The Bucks were eager to upgrade their frontcourt last summer and were thrilled when Monroe chose to sign a three-year max deal with them. They soon learned that Monroe’s shortcomings often outweigh the positives he brings to the table.

Monroe is a solid low-post scorer and rebounder, but lacks the foot speed and athleticism to guard the paint or pick-and-rolls effectively. He also doesn’t block shots. Monroe often sat during crunch time while Miles Plumlee closed out games.

“We got him to help score, and he did that,” head coach Jason Kidd recently told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Charles F. Gardner. “He delivered. I think with our defense, we’ve got to do a better job.”

The best solution would be to move Monroe and find a better rim protector. Milwaukee reportedly shopped Monroe to the Pelicans prior to the trade deadline but couldn’t get the package it wanted for him. The Bucks will surely continue to pursue deals involving Monroe, hoping to find a team willing to live with his deficiencies.

Plumlee is a restricted free agent and the Bucks have expressed their desire to re-sign him. But he’s nothing more than a complementary piece and the Bucks will still need a starter to replace Monroe if they’re successful in moving him and his $17.14MM salary for next season.

Free Agent Targets

With approximately $61.6MM committed to guaranteed salaries next season, the Bucks have plenty of cap room to sign free agents. Dwight Howard and Hassan Whiteside will be the top big men available, though it would be a big surprise if either would want to spend their winters in Milwaukee.

The Bucks could certainly use a forward with a consistent long-distance stroke to improve spacing. Ryan Anderson, Marvin Williams or Harrison Barnes could fill that need but they’ll all come with hefty price tags.

It’s more likely Milwaukee will chase second-tier free agents. The Bucks had one of the worst benches in the league last season and have vowed to improve it. They especially need to find shooters — Middleton and oft-injured point guard Jerryd Bayless were their only reliable 3-point threats last season.

The Bucks have to decide whether to pursue any of their unrestricted free agents, a quartet of backcourt players who had injury issues last season — Bayless, O.J. Mayo, Steve Novak and Greivis Vasquez. They will reportedly try to retain Bayless and Novak while letting Mayo and Vasquez find new homes.

Potential Trades

Besides Monroe, the Bucks must figure out what to do with Michael Carter-Williams, who is now in an awkward situation with Antetokounmpo essentially taking his job. Carter-Williams is a subpar shooter, so playing him off the ball doesn’t work. He’s still on his rookie contract, so a potential suitor could acquire the 24-year-old to audition him at the point without committing to him beyond next season.

Draft Outlook

First-round pick: No. 10
Second round picks: Nos. 36, 38

The Bucks could go any number of ways with their lottery pick, but the smart money has them taking a big man. Jakob Poertl and Skal Labissiere are the top centers expected to go in the bottom half of the lottery. Should they target a stretch four, Marquette product Henry Ellenson and/or Domantas Sabonis could still be on the board when their pick comes up.

Coaching Outlook

Anyone who thought the Bucks might sour on Kidd after their subpar season were proven wrong when the team agreed to a contract extension with him this week. Kidd still has one year left on his original deal before that new three-year, $18MM extension kicks in.

Final Take

The Bucks aren’t a typical last-place team. They have some real hope of getting back into the playoff picture next season, thanks to the talented young trio of Antetokounmpo, Parker and Middleton. But they’ll need to make shrewd decisions while restructuring their roster around those players. Milwaukee must find a defensive stalwart in the middle and more perimeter threats. Monroe and Carter-Williams don’t seem like a part of the long-term plan and need to be moved. The Bucks also need to acquire some veterans who can help nurture the talented young core

Guaranteed Salary

Greg Monroe ($17,145,838)
Khris Middleton ($15,200,000)
John Henson ($12,267,606)
Jabari Parker ($5,374,320)
Michael Carter-Williams ($3,183,526)
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($2,995,421)
(Larry Sanders $1,865,547) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
Rashad Vaughn ($1,811,040)
Tyler Ennis ($1,733,880)
Total: $61,577,178

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Damien Inglis ($980,431)
Johnny O’Bryant ($980,431)
Total: $1,960,862

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Miles Plumlee ($3,113,318/$5,273,235)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

O.J. Mayo ($12,000,000)
Greivis Vasquez ($9,900,000)
Jerryd Bayless ($3,900,000)
Steve Novak ($980,431)
Total: $26,780,431

Other Cap Holds

No. 10 pick ($2,140,500)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Phoenix Suns

June 15th, 2016 at 6:52pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Winning As A Negative

Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports Images

It’s rare that a season in which a team nearly doubles its win total can be looked upon as a negative, but such was the case with Phoenix’s 48-win campaign back in 2013/14. The franchise had won just 25 contests the year prior and wasn’t expected to compete for a playoff spot. But the unexpected success of that squad prompted team management to increase its expectations, overvalue its assets and make a number of questionable roster decisions focused on the present rather than looking toward the future. Phoenix has been a sub-.500 team since that season and are still searching for an on-court identity as a franchise, having seemingly scrapped the point guard-laden approach fostered under former coach Jeff Hornacek with no clear-cut philosophical direction to replace it.

To Rebuild, Or Not To Rebuild?

Phoenix stands at a crossroads this offseason and needs to decide if it believes that a veteran core comprised of Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and Tyson Chandler is good enough to contend in the Western Conference. If the team’s backcourt can remain healthy, which is in no way a given despite the stellar reputation of the Suns’ training staff, a playoff berth isn’t out of the question next season. But even if the Suns are able to make it to the postseason, the franchise isn’t likely going to be a serious challenger for an NBA title anytime soon. Not without a notable free agent signing or two this summer, at the very least. The other available option is to embrace a full rebuild and focus on surrounding Devin Booker, Alex Len, T.J. Warren and whomever the team selects with the No. 4 overall pick with complementary talent that can grow alongside those players.

One pivotal decision, if you’ll forgive the pun, will be regarding the center position. The team signed Chandler last offseason when it was still in the running for LaMarcus Aldridge. But when the power forward chose to sign with San Antonio, that left the Suns stuck with an aging center with a limited offensive game who may quickly grow disenchanted in Phoenix if the team decides to go the rebuild route. Chandler told ESPN’s Rachel Nichols that he would take a wait-and-see approach and wouldn’t immediately seek out a trade, adding, “If there is a decision and they want to go young and stay young, then we’ll have that conversation. But we’re not there. I’m happy where I am. I feel like the Suns have a bright future if we continue to build and build the right way. It’s all about building the right way.” With Chandler under contract for three more seasons and Len set to enter the final season of his rookie deal, the Suns may not be too keen on paying both players big money and may need to make a tough call on whom to retain.

The front office will also need to decide if it will continue with a multi-guard approach or go with a more traditional lineup. The jury is still out on whether or not Knight and Bledsoe can be an effective backcourt tandem, plus, the emergence of Booker as a potential star may push one of the two high-priced veterans to the bench or out the door in the near future. Knight still has four years and approximately $56.5MM remaining on his pact and the team is still on the hook for three more years and $43.5MM to Bledsoe, so what Phoenix does regarding its backcourt will go a long way toward determining how much roster and cap flexibility the franchise will have the next few seasons. The most prudent path may be to try and trade one or both of the pair this offseason and rebuild around Booker. Given the amount of teams around the league that need an upgrade at the one spot, the Suns may be able to land a number of valuable assets in any deal involving Knight or Bledsoe.

Is Watson the Answer?

The team decided to part ways with Hornacek during the season and installed Earl Watson as interim coach. Despite leading the team to a lackluster 9-24 mark after taking over, Watson was retained as head coach for next season. It should be noted that Bledsoe was already out for the season by the time of the coaching change, and Knight missed most of the games that Watson coached. While Watson lacks NBA head coaching experience, his background as a player, familiarity with the team’s roster and his strong player development skills were obviously selling points to Phoenix’s front office and ownership.

Watson also has a reputation for having a strong influence on free agents, which helped build his case for keeping the job, along with his work to rehabilitate the trade value of Markieff Morris. Couple that with Phoenix’s defensive improvements down the stretch this season and perhaps his ties to the Klutch Sports Group, the agency that also represents Bledsoe, and the retention of Watson makes greater sense. Soon-to-be free agent power forward Mirza Teletovic cited Watson as a major reason why he wants to re-sign with the team.

The Suns were reportedly poised to pursue Mike D’Antoni even before they fired Hornacek, but a reunion with D’Antoni, who won Coach of the Year honors with the Suns in 2005, obviously never materialized. The team eyed Steve Nash, but the former MVP wasn’t interested. Conflicting reports emerged about Phoenix’s interest in Villanova coach Jay Wright, while the team was apparently fond of Dan Majerle and Luke Walton.

Free Agent Targets

The Suns enter the summer with potentially $33MM in cap flexibility. That amount is dependent on the free-agent decision of Teletovic, who has a $6.6MM cap hold. If the power forward signs with another team it may allow Phoenix enough space to potentially float a max salary offers to two players. However, if Teletovic is to be re-signed, Phoenix would likely have to use cap room to sign him since it only holds his Non-Bird rights. Plus, it could eliminate the possibility of adding multiple top-tier free agents without making a corresponding trade to shed salary.

It’s difficult to predict who the Suns may target given the conundrum the franchise faces regarding going young and rebuilding or trying to forge a playoff team around its current personnel. Either way, the team will need to add a power forward who can score from the outside. Parting ways with Morris may have improved team chemistry and cut down on locker room drama, but it also left the Suns with a glaring roster hole. Teletevic is a solid player, but is far better suited to coming off the bench than starting in the long run. If the team doesn’t hit the reset button, Pau Gasol would be a prime target, though he will likely look to catch on with a team possessing a better shot at the title than Phoenix. More realistic targets for the team would be Chandler Parsons, Derrick Williams and Ryan Anderson. Anderson is perhaps the most intriguing name available, though he will likely command a max salary deal and doesn’t necessarily have the track record to warrant such an enormous annual sum.

The Suns could also use more outside shooters, preferably on the wing. While Booker has the potential to be the next great deep bomber in the league, he certainly shouldn’t be forced to be the focal point on offense at such a young age. Plus, if the team decides to deal either Bledsoe or Knight, Phoenix will need to add backcourt depth. The two best options in this area — Bradley Beal and Evan Fournier — are both restricted free agents, which means landing either would be a tricky proposition and the team would need to significantly overpay in order to scare off the players’ current teams.

Help in this area could also arrive in the form of 2014 first-round pick Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is reportedly set to begin negotiating with the Suns now that his Turkish League season is over. This is the last season that Bogdanovic would be required to sign a rookie contract that would give him a salary of about $5.7MM over four years, which could put a damper on the talks. If he waits until next offseason, Bogdanovic is free to negotiate any amount, starting with his draft year’s rookie salary scale.

Draft Targets

Unless the Suns decide to deal away the No. 4 overall pick, the team will likely look to add a scoring power forward with that selection. Phoenix is likely praying that the Celtics, who own the No. 3 overall pick, pass on Dragan Bender, who fits what the Suns need almost too perfectly. Bender will need some time to develop and has the potential to be a disappointment if selected that high in the lottery, but his skill set is simply too tantalizing to pass up. If Boston nabs Bender, or trades the pick to a team targeting the Croatian power forward, Marquese Chriss, Henry Ellenson and Jaylen Brown could be possibilities.

The other area the Suns could look to address at No. 4 is to nab some help on the wing. Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray would be the top two possibilities here, or perhaps Kris Dunn if the team decided it wanted more depth at the point given the injury histories of Knight and Bledsoe. Phoenix also holds the No. 13 and No. 28 overall picks this June, so whichever need isn’t addressed at No. 4 can be handled with those selections. Thon Maker, Deyonta Davis, Malachi Richardson and Domantas Sabonis are all possibilities at the bottom of the lottery for Phoenix.

In Summary

The Suns face an offseason rife with possibilities as well as potential pitfalls. The team’s three highest paid players all missed significant time this past season due to injuries and may not form a cohesive nucleus when they are on the court together. While Phoenix may indeed be good enough to make the playoffs in 2016/17 if healthy, avoiding a repeat of the short-term success enjoyed by the 2013/14 club should be the team’s primary goal. Unless the Suns are somehow able to lure Kevin Durant to Phoenix, rebuilding around the younger players may be the wisest option for all involved.

Guaranteed Salary

Eric Bledsoe ($14,000,000)
Brandon Knight ($12,606,250)
Tyson Chandler ($12,415,000)
Alex Len ($4,823,621)
Devin Booker ($2,223,600)
T.J. Warren ($2,128,920)
Archie Goodwin ($2,094,089)
P.J. Tucker ($1,500,000) — Partial guarantee; non-guaranteed portion listed below¹
(Michael Beasley $777,777) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
Total: $52,569,257

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

P.J. Tucker ($3,800,000) — Partial guarantee; guaranteed portion listed above¹
John Jenkins ($1,050,961)
Alan Williams ($874,636)
Total: $5,725,597

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Mirza Teletovic ($6,600,000)
Jon Leuer ($1,966,500)
Chase Budinger ($980,431)
Ronnie Price ($980,431)
Total: $10,527,362

Other Cap Holds

No. 4 pick ($3,563,600)
No. 13 pick ($1,835,200)
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($996,700)
No. 28 pick ($990,700)
Total: $7,386,200

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

Tucker’s full $5,300,000 salary would become guaranteed on June 30th.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this pos

Offseason Outlook: Boston Celtics

June 14th, 2016 at 10:38pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

For a second straight season, the Celtics were dispatched fairly quickly from the postseason, but the early playoff exit shouldn’t diminish enthusiasm for the long-term future in Boston. Since the Celtics parted ways with their veterans and replaced Doc Rivers with Brad Stevens in 2013, the franchise has accelerated its rebuilding process, bottoming out at 25 wins in Stevens’ first year before winning 40 in 2014/15 and 48 this past season.

The drastic improvements on the court have come even before the Celtics have reaped most of the rewards of their blockbuster 2013 trade with the Nets, which gives Boston the third overall pick this year, the rights to swap first-rounders with Brooklyn in 2017, and the Nets’ first-rounder in 2018. Boston’s success within the last two years is as a testament to Stevens’ impact and to Danny Ainge‘s other moves, including the acquisition of All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas.

Stevens and Ainge were rewarded for their excellent work with new contract extensions earlier this month, and will continue to lead the franchise for years to come. As effective as they’ve been so far though, there’s plenty of work to be done. The Celtics are just 2-8 in the postseason under Stevens, and if they want to start making deeper playoff runs, they’ll have to start turning all the assets they’ve collected into more impact on-court talent.

The Search For A Star

Having gathered so many young players and draft picks, the Celtics could make an effort to emulate the Knicks’ and Rockets’ approach to acquiring a star — those teams turned a surplus of assets into Carmelo Anthony and James Harden, respectively, taking advantage of situations where All-Star caliber players became expendable for one reason or another.

For the Celtics, that could mean targeting a player like Jahlil Okafor, who is part of an increasingly crowded frontcourt in Philadelphia; or Kevin Love, who has never quite fit in with the Cavaliers; or Jimmy Butler, who could become available if the Bulls decide to fully enter rebuilding mode. Ainge will likely make calls inquiring on several more players around the league who teams will be reluctant to move, such as DeMarcus Cousins and Paul George.

Trading for an impact veteran, particularly one who can create his own shot and help Thomas carry the scoring load, would help the Celtics become a more dangerous team in the short term, but the club should be wary about giving up too many of its assets for a non-superstar. The Knicks and Rockets, after acquiring Anthony and Harden respectively, have each made it past the first round of the playoffs just once since making those blockbuster deals. Shoving your chips into the table sometimes makes sense, but if Ainge and the Celtics take that approach, it will have to be for the right player(s).

Fortunately for Boston, the team is so loaded with draft picks – this year and in future seasons – that Ainge could move a handful of them and still have several more to work with. That gives the franchise some room for error, and could encourage a big splash this offseason — even if the C’s don’t immediately become a title contender by making a major trade, they’ll still have some bullets in the chamber to fire down the road.

Draft Outlook

First-round picks: 3rd, 16th, 23rd
Second-round picks: 31st, 35th, 45th, 51st, 58th

A large chunk of those aforementioned assets the Celtics have stockpiled come in the form of 2016 draft picks. With eight of the 60 total selections in their possession, the C’s control more than 13% of this year’s draft, creating a ton of flexibility to add young talent or accommodate trades.

Of course, with two consensus prospects – Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram – at the top of most draft boards, the Celtics would have been in an even better spot if they’d been able to move up the lottery, but controlling that No. 3 pick still puts the team in a strong position. If the C’s keep the pick, they’ll be able to choose their favorite player out of a group of prospects that includes Jamal Murray, Jaylen Brown, Marquese Chriss, Kris Dunn, and Dragan Bender.

If another team covets one of those players though, the Celtics sound more than willing to move the third overall pick, with one report indicating that the team has been “really shopping” the selection around in search of an impact player. While rebuilding clubs make the most sense as trade partners for Boston, contenders shouldn’t necessarily be ruled out either. For a contending team with a ton of salary on its books, replacing a high-priced veteran with a younger player capable of contributing immediately at a fraction of the price could make real sense.

The No. 3 draft pick is the Celtics’ most valuable draft asset, but the team has seven more picks at its disposal. The odds of Boston using even half of those selections seem slim, unless the team decides to load up on draft-and-stash players. Still, there are several different directions Ainge and the front office could go with those picks. Do they keep the third overall pick and use some of the other selections to add a lesser talent? Do they package that No. 3 pick in a deal for a star? Or do they simply push their draft assets to future years, trading some of their second-round picks for future second-rounders?

The sheer number of options available to Ainge this offseason is a good thing for the Celtics, but it will make for some difficult decisions. If Boston can go in 10 different directions with its picks, choosing the optimal path will be tricky.

To Guarantee Or Not To Guarantee?

Further complicating the Celtics’ offseason plans is the fact that the team is carrying nearly $18MM in non-guaranteed salary, the majority of which belongs to Amir Johnson ($12MM) and Jonas Jerebko ($5MM). Both players appeared in nearly every game for Boston last season, and Johnson in particular was a solid role player. Considering the team only has about $34MM in guaranteed contracts on its books for 2016/17, bringing back both players is feasible, but not necessarily a lock.

Both Johnson’s and Jerebko’s contracts are set to become guaranteed on July 3rd, so the Celtics will have to make a decision on the duo before the July moratorium ends. That could mean quickly getting a sense of which free agents are willing to come to Boston and which aren’t interested — if the team has to clear out cap space for a major signing, releasing Jerebko and perhaps Johnson as well would quickly open up another $17MM.

Free Agent Targets

While trading for talent makes sense for the Celtics, the team won’t be hindered by cap issues in its pursuit of top-tier free agents. Even after taking into account cap holds for restricted free agents Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller, unrestricted free agent Evan Turner, and the club’s three first-round picks, Boston still only has about $57MM on its books for next season, not counting its non-guaranteed salaries. That’s more than enough space to make a maximum contract offer to a free agent.

While the cap flexibility is there, Boston historically hasn’t been a marquee destination for free agents, and it seems unlikely that a player such as Kevin Durant would sign with the Celtics, even if the club gets an opportunity to make a pitch in July. Obviously, if the C’s can land a player like Durant, they should go all out to do so, but the club should be wary of using its cap space on a lesser player simply to use it — a max contract for a second-tier free agent like Harrison Barnes could prevent Boston from making other moves down the line, limiting the team’s ceiling.

Although Durant will likely end up elsewhere, and Barnes may not be worth the investment required (or the complications, given his RFA status), the Celtics should be targeting players with their kind of skill-sets. In Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley, the club has a respectable backcourt, and Jae Crowder is a solid three-and-D player, but the C’s need to add scoring and outside shooting. A playmaking forward who can help shoulder the scoring load would be an ideal addition for Boston. Chandler Parsons, Nicolas Batum, Ryan Anderson, and Pau Gasol are among the free agents who the team could consider.

As for Sullinger, Zeller, and Turner, they’re all candidates to return. Given Sullinger’s and Turner’s prominent spots in the rotation last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics try to keep them around, perhaps jettisoning Zeller, whose role was reduced. Boston could also use a rim-protecting big man, though I’d be a little surprised if the team is willing to pay big money for a free agent like Bismack Biyombo.

Final Take

The Celtics have some solid building blocks in place, and Stevens has done an excellent job at getting the most out of those players. If Ainge can figure out the best way to maximize all the assets the franchise has gathered during its rebuild, Boston could take another big step forward in 2016/17. Still, it’s not as if the C’s have to make a move before their window of contention closing. With so many roster-building options available to him, Ainge will ultimately have to decide what the best course of action is, and that could mean exercising patience and waiting for a better opportunity to cash in some of those assets.

Guaranteed Salary

Avery Bradley ($8,269,663)
Isaiah Thomas ($6,587,132)
Jae Crowder ($6,286,408)
Marcus Smart ($3,578,880)
Kelly Olynyk ($3,094,013)
Terry Rozier ($1,906,440)
James Young ($1,825,200)
Jordan Mickey ($1,223,653)
R.J. Hunter ($1,200,240)
Total: $33,971,629

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Amir Johnson ($12,000,000)
Jonas Jerebko ($5,000,000)
John Holland ($874,636)
Total: $17,874,636

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Jared Sullinger ($4,433,683/$5,673,150)
Tyler Zeller ($3,695,169/$6,542,438)
Totals: $8,128,852/$12,215,588

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Evan Turner ($4,453,163)

Other Cap Holds

No. 3 pick ($3,952,500)
Luigi Datome ($2,275,000)
No. 16 pick ($1,573,500)
No. 23 pick ($1,151,900)
Total: $8,952,900

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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