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Offseason Outlook: Charlotte Hornets

May 10th, 2016 at 1:30pm CST by Chuck Myron

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Jeremy Brevard / USA TODAY Sports Images

Nicolas Batum‘s Free Agency

GM Rich Cho says re-signing Batum is his top priority, and the Bouna Ndiaye client has pledged to make the Hornets the first team he speaks with when he becomes a free agent July 1st. The question appears to be a financial one, as Cho and company must ponder whether it’s wise to offer a max contract starting at an estimated $26MM to a swingman who fell shy of averaging 15 points and 35% 3-point shooting in his career year this season. The market will probably dictate that the Hornets go to the max to keep him, given the dearth of other attractive free agent options amid a surging salary cap. Zach Lowe of ESPN.com wrote in January that Batum was likely to draw max offers, and while his scoring and outside shooting percentage dipped somewhat after that report, the market probably hasn’t changed.

Other Incumbent Free Agents

The Hornets have to fight battles on multiple fronts with five members of their rotation poised to hit free agency, assuming Jeremy Lin turns down his player option. Cho said he wants to re-sign as many as possible, but coming to terms with all of them will be a tall order. The most pivotal question surrounds Al Jefferson, who’s just two years removed from having been Third Team All-NBA. Injury and a marijuana suspension marred his season this year and turned him into a reserve, though he popped back into the starting lineup midway through the first-round series loss to the Heat. He was still a shadow of what he was two years ago in five postseason starts, averaging just 11.0 points and 6.2 rebounds. Just 31 years old, he’s not ancient by any standard, but he’s old enough that the Hornets will likely shy away from a long-term deal, and he’ll probably have to take a pay cut to remain in Charlotte, too.

Marvin Williams is another fascinating case. He’s become a quintessential stretch four, hitting a career-best 40.2% of his 3-pointers this past season, so he’ll be in high demand. Still, he turns 30 this year, and it’s fair to wonder whether he and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was injured for most of the season, can successfully share the floor. Most problematic is that the Hornets only have Early Bird rights on him, and with Cho’s plan to keep the team intact, Charlotte probably won’t have the cap space necessary to offer him more than $12.5MM for next season, which might not be enough.

It would be difficult to envision both Williams and Courtney Lee re-signing as long as Batum comes back, since there wouldn’t be room in the same starting lineup for the two of them with Batum and Kidd-Gilchrist around. Lee saw fewer shot opportunities than he did before the trade that brought him from Memphis, and while he and Williams would provide much-needed floor spacing alongside Kidd-Gilchrist, Lee will probably seek a larger role elsewhere.

The Hornets will be even more fenced in with Lin if he opts out than they are with Williams, since they’d have only Non-Bird rights on Lin. That would provide for a salary of $2,566,800, not enough for someone who was one of the best backup point guards in the league this year. Charlotte would likely have to turn to the $5.628MM mid-level exception to keep him. Still, he said he enjoyed his year with the Hornets so much, he’d be willing to give the team a discount on his next deal, so it remains to be seen how generous he’ll be.

Outside Free Agent Targets

The Hornets are apparently one of four favorites to sign Dwight Howard this summer, and they reportedly had exploratory trade talks about him with the Rockets before the February deadline. Coach Steve Clifford was an assistant for the Magic and Lakers when Howard was with those teams, but despite all that, the idea of Howard in Charlotte still seems far-fetched. The Hornets would have to renounce the rights to every one of their significant free agents aside from Batum and Lin to open enough cap space to even approach the roughly $30MM max Howard would be eligible for, barring major salary-clearing trades. The same goes for any chance the team might have at Charlotte-area native Hassan Whiteside. The salary-cap math just makes it prohibitive. More realistic free agent additions will likely come via whatever portion of the mid-level Lin doesn’t take, so don’t expect the team to make a major signing.

Cody Zeller‘s Extension Candidacy

Assuming the team doesn’t make a game-changing swap, Zeller represents the future of the center position in Charlotte. The madness of the heightened cap will have had its effect on the market by the time rookie scale extension talks begin in earnest in the fall, and while there might be wisdom in tying up Zeller before the cap leaps from this year’s projected $92MM to next year’s projection of $107MM, the Hornets will probably wait to see what Zeller does over a full season as a starter before committing to him. That said, Charlotte struck a rookie scale extension with Jeremy Lamb last fall less than a week after his first official game with the team.

Potential Trades

Lamb and Spencer Hawes appear to have the most tradeable contracts on the Hornets, though Lamb’s disappearance from the rotation at the end of the season won’t help his appeal to other teams. Still, he had his most productive year, even though he didn’t shoot well. Hawes showed signs of life after a miserable season with the Clippers, and he’s still just 28. A 3-point shooting big man has value on the market if Charlotte wants to test it.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round picks: 22nd
  • Second-round picks: None

It’ll be the first year in a while the Hornets won’t have a lottery pick, so they can only expect so much here. They could go for shooting with Florida State two-guard Malik Beasley, but this part of the first round is heavy on size. Don’t be surprised if they go the international route with centers Ivica Zubac or Ante Zizic.

Other Decisions

The opening of Charlotte’s new D-League affiliate bodes well for Aaron Harrison, who has a non-guaranteed salary, since the Hornets will have the opportunity to closely monitor the development of the once-highly touted prospect on that squad. The team may well have interest in keeping soon-to-be restricted free agent Troy Daniels, given his 3-point shooting ability, but fellow impending free agents Jorge Gutierrez and Tyler Hansbrough were insurance policies the Hornets never found much use for.

Final Take

Charlotte overcame plenty of adversity this season to not only make the playoffs but come within a game of the second round, and with Kidd-Gilchrist poised to come back from his shoulder injury, plenty of reason for optimism exists. The trick this summer is to keep the team together, and Cho seems willing to embrace the challenge.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Pistons

May 9th, 2016 at 7:59pm CST by Dana Gauruder
Tim Fuller / USA Today Sports Images

Tim Fuller / USA Today Sports Images

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Re-signing Drummond

The Pistons’ long climb back to respectability began when the previous regime drafted Andre Drummond with the No. 9 pick in the 2012 draft. Owner Tom Gores labeled Drummond as a “max player” a year ago and, for the most part, Drummond lived up to that billing this past season. He made his first All-Star appearance while leading the league in rebounding and displaying a much-improved low-post game.

Drummond decided not to sign an extension prior to the start of the season, knowing he could get a much bigger contract in restricted free agency this summer. There has been no hint that Drummond will shop his services, considering the Pistons are willing to pay top dollar to retain him.

There were some uneasy moments between Drummond and head coach/president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy as the season wore on, due to Drummond’s woeful free-throw shooting. Drummond’s playing time decreased as Van Gundy often kept him on the bench during crunch time rather than allowing opponents to employ Hack-A-Dre strategies.

However, Drummond has expressed willingness to try different approaches to his biggest flaw instead of allowing it to be a divisive issue.

“We all know it’s an important thing — Andre more than any of us — and he’s pretty open to anything,” Van Gundy said during his postseason press conference. “There’s a lot of ways to attack this problem, and we’ll all have a hand in it.”

It’s likely that a contract agreement will be reached once free agency begins, with Drummond holding off on signing it while the Pistons use their salary-cap space to pursue free agents and trades. Any other outcome would be a major surprise.

Upgrading The Bench

Van Gundy improved his starting unit by acquiring starting forwards Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris in trades and signing point guard Reggie Jackson to a long-term contract last summer. The Pistons led the league with 27 games in which their starters all scored in double figures. The flip side was that they were over-reliant on that group because of an unimposing second unit. That group was weakened by the Harris swap with the Magic, as backup point guard Brandon Jennings headed to Orlando. Aging Steve Blake wound up running the point when Jackson rested.

They were also thin at the forward spots, with journeyman Anthony Tolliver in the rotation most of the season. The Pistons seemingly resolved that problem by dealing for Donatas Motiejunas from the Rockets but days later rescinded the trade because of long-range concerns how his back would hold up after he underwent surgery last spring.

Free Agent Targets

If the Pistons make a splash in free agency, it will come in the form of a tall power forward with an outside stroke. Acquiring that type of player remains a high priority, either as a main reserve or even to supplant Harris or Morris in the lineup. Both of the current starters are undersized by power forward standards.

With approximately $64.5MM in guaranteed salary commitments, the Pistons have the flexibility to make a run at a top-tier free agent, even when adding Drummond’s $8.18MM cap hold to that figure.

A trio of names leap off the page regarding unrestricted big men. Ryan Anderson, a 6’10” power forward and career 37.7% 3-point shooter, would be an ideal fit in Van Gundy’s system. Marvin Williams, who shot 40.2% from long range while starting every game for the Hornets, is another player who would seemingly thrive in that role.

The Pistons could go for an even bigger prize and make a spirited run at Al Horford, who has developed into a respectable 3-point shooter. They were linked to Horford over the winter and value his leadership skills.

There are also plenty of free agent point guards the Pistons could pursue to head their second unit, including two players that Van Gundy traded, Jennings and D.J. Augustin. Jeremy Lin, who has a player option, would also be a consideration along with other proven veterans like Aaron Brooks, Mario Chalmers and Ish Smith.

Potential Trades

Van Gundy has overhauled the roster mainly through trades, knowing that Detroit wasn’t a desirable free agent option during the rebuilding process. The Pistons’ situation is much more attractive now with the team on the upswing but Van Gundy isn’t afraid to pull the trigger on a deal if free agency doesn’t go his way.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round picks: 18th
  • Second-round picks: 49th

The Pistons were willing to give up a non-lottery pick to acquire Motiejunas, and they’ll be willing to deal their pick again to acquire a rotation player. If they retain the pick, they could go the draft-and-stash route. They could also take a point guard if there’s one they believe can run their second unit immediately. Demetrius Jackson and Tyler Ulis would likely head that list if they slide out of the lottery.

Other Decisions

Veteran center Joel Anthony has a $2.5MM non-guaranteed contract and the Pistons would like to keep him around as insurance. Van Gundy soured on reserve point guard Spencer Dinwiddie and is unlikely to pick up his non-guaranteed salary. Shooting guard Darrun Hilliard has a partially guaranteed contract and showed enough promise during his rookie season for the club to keep him around. Blake won’t return, and unless Tolliver accepts a reduced role and salary, don’t look for him to be back, either.

Final Take

The Pistons still have work to do roster-wise to progress from a fringe playoff team to a true contender. Some of the improvements must come from growth by young players already on the roster. The rest will come from Van Gundy’s desire to get another impact player in the frontcourt and a much better option behind Jackson at the point.

Guaranteed salary

Player options

  • None

Team options

  • None

Non-guaranteed salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 18 pick ($1,420,100)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

May 7th, 2016 at 10:36pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches. 

Nelson Chenault/ USA TODAY Sports Images

Nelson Chenault/ USA TODAY Sports Images

Mike Conley‘s Free Agency

The offseason for the Grizzlies is somewhat similar to their offseason last year. The top priority again will be attempting to retain a premier player, something they were able to accomplish last year when they re-signed Marc Gasol to a five-year max deal. This July, the team hopes to lock up Mike Conley. He believes this team can still be a championship contender. “We might have a different team with a lot of different faces,” Conley said last month after a postseason loss against the Spurs. “But with the core group of guys we have instilled here, and with [Gasol] coming back healthy, we definitely have a chance to continue in this window to be successful.” This is a team that has made the playoffs in each of the past six seasons, but its chances of making the playoffs again next season and the direction of its offseason are dependent on Conley putting pen to paper in Memphis.

Coaching Search

The Grizzlies parted ways with Dave Joerger and whom they choose to be the next coach should shine some light on what their plans are going forward. The team reportedly intends to pursue Frank Vogel, who was not retained by the Pacers. Such a move could signal that they intend to keep the core of Conley, Gasol and Zach Randolph together, as Vogel has extensive experience coaching teams that employ two traditional big men, although that is simply my speculation.

Potential Trades

Trading Randolph seems to be the deal that could bring in the most without sacrificing a potential All-Star. The power forward has one year at slightly under $10.4MM left on his deal. That’s an attractive contract for a player who displayed superb offensive ability as recently as this postseason. If they do make him available, he would be a good fit for the Raptors, as he could easily steal Luis Scola‘s minutes. Ultimately, I suspect that the team keeps its beloved big man for at least another season, assuming the Grizzlies also keep Conley and don’t go into any sort of rebuild.

Free Agent Targets

Again, the offseason plans are directly related to Conley’s decision. If the team isn’t in the market for a starting point guard, its priority should be adding a shooter or two. The Grizzlies shot 33.1% from behind the arc as a team, which was good for only 29th in the league, and only three teams made fewer 3-pointers than Memphis did. The Grizzlies only have slightly over $47.6MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for next season against a projected salary cap of $92MM.

They hope to have Conley’s new contract on the books as well, and if they can come to an agreement quickly with the point guard, they could operate in the same way the Spurs did when they re-signed Kawhi Leonard, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors detailed in the team’s Salary Cap Digest. Conley’s cap hold is slightly under $14.1MM, which is significantly less than the $26MM maximum salary he’s likely to garner. Securing a verbal commitment from Conley would allow them to use their cap space on another target before circling back and re-signing the 28-year-old.

Nicolas Batum would be a nice addition. Batum isn’t a great 3-point shooter, but he has hit 36% of his shots from behind the arc during his career. He would give the Grizzlies a third option on the court for the next several years behind Conley and Gasol, and he would add some much-needed youth to the roster. Signing Chandler Parsons would achieve the same goals. He’s a better shooter than Batum is, though he’s likely going to be even harder to pry away from his incumbent team. Harrison Barnes is an appealing option, but I speculate that he re-signs with Golden State.

Could the Grizzlies be the team that impetuously offers Kent Bazemore a hefty deal? If they want to add a player who could become a mainstay in their core, they may have to settle for a gamble like Bazemore. Landing a more proven commodity with a mix of youth and shooting on the free agent market will likely be a difficult feat. There simply aren’t many big-time free agents that are realistic fits for Memphis, and no, Kevin Durant is not walking through that door. More likely, the team adds a few pieces around its existing core, taking a gamble on some young talent or adding a veteran shooter, such as Jared Dudley, with the hope that his shooting can supplement the team’s offense.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round picks: 17th
  • Second-round picks: 57th

Adding talent through the draft will be crucial. They’ve had some misses recently in the latter half of the first-round, like their decision to choose Jordan Adams over Rodney Hood. Memphis should be in a position where the No.17 overall pick doesn’t necessarily need to contribute next season, but the team badly needs a player who can develop into a contributor down the road.

Other Decisions

The Grizzlies will have to decide whether they should pick up Lance Stephenson‘s team option, which is worth slightly over $9.4MM. If the team hires Vogel, it would likely keep Stephenson and see if it can recreate the success that the shooting guard enjoyed in Indiana, although that is just my speculation.

Final Take

The Grizzlies saw 28 different players suit up for them this season, as a result of injuries and the subsequent trades. Before the injuries, they were considered contenders for the Western Conference crown and if they can retain Conley, add a few pieces and hire the right coach, they could easily keep their championship window open for a few more years.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

  • Bryce Cotton ($1,180,431/$1,180,431)
  • Xavier Munford ($1,074,636/$1,074,636) — Pending team option
  • Totals: ($2,255,067/$2,255,067)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

  1. The Grizzlies can’t re-sign Hairston to a contract with a starting salary worth more than the amount listed here because the Hornets declined their team option on his rookie scale contract before the start of the season. Charlotte subsequently traded Hairston to Memphis, which inherits the restriction.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Chuck Myron contributed to this post

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Offseason Outlook: New York Knicks

May 7th, 2016 at 10:32am CST by Eddie Scarito
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports Images

Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports Images

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Coaching Search

It doesn’t appear that team president Phil Jackson is feeling any particular urgency to finalize his decision on who will lead the team next season, with a number of top candidates already landing new posts seemingly without any push from New York to schedule formal interviews. Jackson is said to favor retaining interim coach Kurt Rambis, who is intimately familiar with the triangle offense, a move that would fail to inspire much excitement given Rambis’ career coaching record of 65-164. The team is also reportedly considering former Cavaliers coach David Blatt, who met with the Knicks this week.

New York’s coaching search could become a point of contention between the front office and star forward Carmelo Anthony, who has publicly called for the team to at least listen to candidates other than Rambis. Anthony reportedly preferred Tom Thibodeau, who’s since become the coach and chief front office executive for the Timberwolves. Jackson was nonetheless disinterested in Thibodeau, and the Knicks didn’t contact him, as ESPN’s Ian Begley reported.

Carmelo Anthony’s Future

It would appear that we are entering a make-or-break offseason regarding Anthony and his future with the franchise. The small forward has thus far rebuffed any talk of him waiving his no-trade clause in order to be dealt to a contender this summer, though things could change in a hurry if the Knicks strike out in the free agent market. Anthony reportedly made it clear to the team in his exit interview that it needs to take advantage of the “window that he has” when making personnel moves this offseason.

If New York is unable to land a star player to pair alongside Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis, who is arguably a bigger draw for potential free agents than ‘Melo nowadays, then it may be in everyone’s best interests to try and find a new team for the small forward. ‘Melo is 31 years old and has entered his decline phase, so finding a way to get him and the remaining three years and approximately $78.7MM of his contract off the books could be an attractive option for New York, especially given the projected quality of the 2017 free agent class.

Free Agent Targets

The Knicks’ biggest need is for a competent point guard who can take some pressure off Anthony and Porzingis, preferably one who can stretch the floor with his outside shooting. Jackson has minimized the importance of a traditional playmaker in the triangle offense, but with today’s guard-oriented NBA, having a solid point guard is vital to any team’s success. The top two point guards available via free agency are Rajon Rondo and Mike Conley, either of whom would be a major upgrade over the cast of characters New York has trotted out at the point the past few seasons.

Conley, 28, is the younger of the two, and he’s arguably a better option for the Knicks than Rondo is. The Knicks aren’t as high on Conley as they were during the season, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post, who noted Jackson’s lack of emphasis on the one spot and the executive’s belief in Tony Wroten, who has yet to play a minute for the Knicks since being signed. Conley is no lock to leave Memphis, but even if he does, his nagging Achilles concerns should give the team pause when thinking about handing out a max deal to the talented playmaker. Rondo would bring with him a new set of concerns, chiefly his lack of outside shooting, advancing age and reputation for being difficult to coach. If New York could swing a short-term deal with Rondo, he would be an intriguing option, though his addition would need to be supplemented with a backcourt mate who can consistently nail his outside shots.

Potential Trades

Outside of Anthony, and assuming Porzingis is untouchable (as he should be), the Knicks don’t have much in the way of tradeable assets. Jose Calderon could be a valuable bench player on a contender, but teams likely won’t be lining up to ship anything of substance to the Knicks in return for the aging guard whose production has steadily been in decline since he arrived in New York.

If the Knicks are unable to sign a point guard this summer, the team could look to acquire one, with the Hawks’ Dennis Schröder and Jeff Teague as well as the Kings’ Darren Collison being prime targets. It’s doubtful New York has enough assets to land either of Atlanta’s playmakers, but Collison is perhaps within the team’s means to obtain. The Knicks have reportedly discussed the possibility of making a play for Collison, but it is difficult to gauge what the Kings’ plan is for anyone on the roster until Sacramento names its new head coach.

Draft Outlook

The Knicks are without a pick this June, which is the final penance the franchise will need to pay from its ill-advised trade with the Raptors for Andrea Bargnani back in 2013. New York’s pick is currently projected to be No. 7 overall, though the Nuggets will swap their pick for the Knicks’ if New York’s ends up higher than Denver’s after the lottery. Toronto gets whichever pick the Nuggets don’t take. Jackson could look to buy a second-round pick, but it’s doubtful that would yield an immediate rotation piece.

Option Decisions

Much of the Knicks’ offseason cap flexibility depends on the decisions made by Arron Afflalo ($8MM) and Derrick Williams ($4,598,000), both of whom possess player options on their respective deals. If both opt out, the Knicks could ink two upper-tier free agents instead of just one. Afflalo is likely to opt out given his dissatisfaction with being relegated to a bench role and the team’s indication that he would again be a reserve if he returns next season. Williams has signaled that he would like to remain in New York, though it isn’t clear if he intends to exercise his option to do so or decline it and attempt to sign a new deal with the team.

Final Take

To say this is a pivotal offseason for the Knicks franchise is an understatement. If Jackson is unable to score big on the free agent market this summer, it could mean the end of Anthony’s tenure in New York and usher in a complete rebuild of the team. Although, that may not be the worst thing that could happen, given that the Knicks, barring some unexpected turn of events, are unlikely to become true contenders before age and wear begin to take a significant toll on Anthony’s game. Whiffing on landing a noteworthy free agent haul could also push Jackson out the door sooner than intended, though given his seemingly laissez-faire approach, that also could be a boon for the franchise in the long run.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes: 

  • Waiving Calderon via the stretch provision, a maneuver that’s been the subject of much speculation, would reduce his salary for next season to $2,569,475.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Clippers

May 6th, 2016 at 9:59am CST by Chuck Myron
Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA TODAY Sports Images

Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA TODAY Sports Images

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Keeping the stars around

Coach/executive Doc Rivers made it clear after the Clippers’ first-round playoff ouster that he isn’t inclined to trade any of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan, in spite of remarks he made before the season indicating that he would considering doing so if the team came up short in the playoffs again this year. Injuries had much to do with the latest postseason disappointment for the Clippers, who played without Paul and Griffin for the final two games of their series against the Blazers. It was Griffin’s left quadriceps that ultimately ended his season, but it was the right hand he broke when he punched assistant equipment manager Mathias Testi that brought trade rumors to the forefront. Nearly every team reportedly inquired to see if the Clippers would trade the former No. 1 pick, but Rivers wouldn’t budge, tabling the decision until after the season, and now it appears he’s chosen to ride it out with him. So, Rivers must shift his focus toward finding a way to keep Griffin and Paul in the summer of 2017, when they can both opt out.

Free agency ahead for supporting cast

Paul, Griffin, Jordan and J.J. Redick are the only members of the Clippers rotation who aren’t on expiring contracts, don’t have player options for this summer and aren’t pondering retirement. Paul Pierce, who turns 39 in October, is 50-50 on whether to play another season, and while Rivers feels he has one more season left in him, Pierce seemed to be running on fumes this year. Jeff Green can play the same positions, but he’ll be a free agent in July, and his market value is difficult to peg. The 26.3 minutes per game he saw for the Clippers after they traded for him at the deadline would have matched a career low if extrapolated over a full season.

Jamal Crawford saw an uptick in minutes, and while his production was off, he won his third career Sixth Man of the Year award after restoring Rivers’ faith in him. Crawford wished he was a free agent last year amid trade rumors, and while he said after the season he’d like to be back with the Clippers, it remains to be seen if he’s truly comfortable in L.A. Austin Rivers calls Crawford his favorite teammate, but regardless of whether Crawford stays or goes, the presence of Doc Rivers is probably enough to keep his son in a Clippers uniform, even if he opts out, as his father expects him to do. Doc Rivers also thinks Wesley Johnson and Cole Aldrich will opt out, and while Rivers indicated he’d like to re-sign all the team’s soon-to-be free agents, a group that includes surprise starter Luc Mbah a Moute, it’s reasonable to suspect the Clippers rotation will look different next year, given the volume of players hitting the open market.

Free agent targets

The Clippers will probably be one of the few teams around the league this summer that’ll be unable to open cap space, so they’ll rely on the $5.628MM mid-level and $2.203MM biannual exceptions to sign outside free agents. That will make for slim pickings, with such exceptions becoming progressively less valuable to free agents as the cap surges. So, the Clippers will likely seek players for specific roles, with small forward and a backup big man the most likely needs. Dewayne Dedmon, Jared Dudley, Maurice Harkless, J.J. Hickson, Jordan Hill, Solomon Hill, Joe Johnson, David Lee, Jon Leuer, Nene, Tayshaun Prince, Robert Sacre, Luis Scola, Jason Smith, Marreese Speights, Amar’e Stoudemire, Mirza Teletovic, Lance Thomas and Anderson Varejao are candidates to fall within the Clippers’ price range.

Potential trades

Rivers is reportedly determined to try to convince Kevin Durant to put on a Clippers uniform, a move that would require the team to trade one of Paul, Griffin or Jordan, but short of that long-shot scenario, Rivers’ commitment to his three stars makes it unlikely the team pulls off a significant trade. Redick and Pierce are the only other Clippers with guaranteed salaries of $2MM or more for next season, so the team lacks trade fodder.

Draft outlook

  • First-round pick: 25th
  • Second-round pick: 33rd

If the Clippers do make a trade, it’ll probably involve one or both of their picks. Rivers said it’s foolish to expect the team to come away with a player at No. 25 who could drastically upgrade the team next season, as Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times notes. Given the ability of Griffin and Paul to hit free agency in 2017, it’s reasonable to suspect the team might want to trade its tightly bunched selections for a veteran who could pay immediate dividends for a critical season ahead. Barring that, the Clippers seem likely to go with either NBA-ready seniors or draft-and-stash candidates who could prove steals far down the road but would stay off the team’s books in the near term.

Other decisions

Age seemed to finally catch up to Pablo Prigioni, who was the NBA’s oldest-ever rookie when he was 35. He turns 39 this month and is coming off his worst NBA season thus far, so it’s tough to see the Clippers re-signing him. Fellow soon-to-be free agent Jeff Ayres was an insurance policy who saw only two minutes of action in the playoffs even amid all the injuries, so he’s probably a goner, too. Branden Dawson played 29 games in the D-League and just six at the NBA level this season, and while the Clippers can’t afford to ignore player development, he’s no sure bet to stick on his non-guaranteed contract.

Final take

Rivers initially cast this past season as a make-or-break year for the team’s core, but he didn’t expect that the breaks would happen to his players’ bodies. The Clippers seem content to take a mulligan for 2015/16 and make only cursory changes for the season ahead, when it looks like this group will truly get its final chance to make it past the second round.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

May 2nd, 2016 at 11:30am CST by Chuck Myron
Trevor Ruszkowski / USA TODAY Sports Images

Trevor Ruszkowski / USA TODAY Sports Images

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Coaching Search

Jeff Van Gundy apparently sits atop the list of Rockets coaching candidates, but interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff will seemingly get a look, at least. Owner Leslie Alexander wants to make sure Van Gundy, who hasn’t coached since 2007, would update his offense, but GM Daryl Morey indicated that he won’t make system a priority in the search, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle.

Dwight Howard‘s future

The decision on a coach will reportedly play a role in any future Howard might have in Houston, and a coach committed to the outside game would seemingly reduce the slim chance the former All-Star center would stay. Still, Howard’s best days were under Van Gundy’s brother Stan in Orlando, where the big man’s presence inside was key to opening space for 3-point shooters. Offenses predicated on movement would ostensibly coax the ball out of the hands of James Harden and allow more touches for Howard.

It’s nonetheless difficult to envision Harden and Howard continuing to coexist, with one Rockets player telling The Vertical’s Michael Lee that they don’t hate each other but simply can’t play together. One team source who spoke with Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com described the chemistry between the star duo as “cordially bad.” Howard is 30 and simply not what he used to be, but the new client of Perry Rogers is still expected to opt out and seek a max deal that would pay him $30MM next season. The Rockets apparently aren’t completely opposed to re-signing Howard, and Morey certainly seems open to it, but it would surely have to be for less money than the max, and at least four other teams are apparently better bets.

Two power forwards poised for restricted free agency

Howard isn’t the only one seemingly on his way out of Houston. The Rockets already pulled off a trade to send Donatas Motiejunas to Detroit, but the Pistons voided the deadline swap. Now, Motiejunas is up for restricted free agency, along with fellow power forward Terrence Jones. Motiejunas returned to Houston’s starting lineup shortly after the trade that wasn’t, and while he proved he could be a consistent presence on the floor after missing most of a calendar year with back trouble, he averaged only 15.7 minutes per game in 21 starts down the stretch. His inability to come anywhere close to the 36.8% he shot from 3-point range last season bodes poorly for his future in Houston, and while he excelled in Houston’s lone playoff win this spring with a 14-point, 13-rebound performance in Game 3 against the Warriors, he otherwise averaged 7.5 points and 3.3 rebounds in that series.

Jones started 71 games for the Rockets in his second year in the NBA, but he fell out of the rotation this season, his fourth since becoming the 18th pick in 2012, and he didn’t play at all in the postseason. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Houston pass on making a qualifying offer to Jones, thus allowing him to hit unrestricted free agency. The Rockets will probably make a qualifying offer to Motiejunas, but they assuredly won’t be afraid to rescind it if that’s what it takes to sign someone else.

Free agent targets

Clearing Howard, Jones and perhaps Motiejunas would give the Rockets about $40MM of cap room to play with, more than enough to sign any free agent. They, like so many others, will go after Durant, and they’ll use Harden, his old teammate, as a selling point, but a reunion appears unlikely. The focus would shift to the next most attractive free agents if Durant says no. Stretchy big man Al Horford and his emerging 3-point game at his max of about $26MM would fit well in Houston. Combining Horford with stretch four extraordinaire Ryan Anderson at around $14MM sounds even better, but that might not be enough for Anderson. The Rockets would have snagged Pau Gasol in the nixed 2011 Chris Paul trade, so perhaps Morey will revisit that idea. Houston could go cheaper and sign Jared Dudley to play the four, leaving money to upgrade the bench.

Potential trades

Houston would surely love to unload Corey Brewer, who had a dreadful year and is still under contract for two more seasons, but that’ll be a tough sell. Better potential for a deal exists deeper on the bench, where young players K.J. McDaniels, Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell could become expendable if the Rockets commit fully to win-now mode. Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley have contracts in the middle of the salary scale, the sort that often make for easy trade fodder, but neither appears destined for a new home unless the Rockets are forced to give them up to accommodate a trade for a star or a second max free agent signing.

Draft outlook

  • First-round picks: None
  • Second-round picks: 37th, 43rd

The Rockets already have three top-40 picks from the last two drafts with guaranteed deals for next season, so unless they offload some of them, it’s tough to see the players at No. 37 and No. 43 both making Houston’s roster come opening night. Look for Houston to trade at least one of its picks.

Other decisions

Michael Beasley was superb after signing a two-year contract in early March, and keeping him on his non-guaranteed minimum salary should be an easy choice. Fellow March signee Andrew Goudelock didn’t have nearly the same sort of impact, so he’ll be expendable. Midseason trade acquisition Josh Smith failed to come close to the production he gave the Rockets during last year’s stint with the team, so he’ll probably be an afterthought at best for Houston in free agency this summer. Jason Terry‘s versatility has value, but he turns 39 in September and the team reportedly wants to explore other options before doing any would-be new deal with the combo guard.

Final take

The Rockets endured a profoundly disappointing season this year, but they still have one of the game’s pre-eminent stars in Harden, and this summer they’ll have not only the chance to hire the right coach but also the flexibility to make significant roster changes and land another star. Houston can rise as quickly as it fell.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes: 

  1. The cap hold for Howard if he opts out will be the maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more seasons. The number shown here is an estimate based on the projected cap figure.
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Offseason Outlook Series

June 25th, 2015 at 7:00am CST by Chuck Myron

The draft is today, and free agency begins next week. The height of the NBA offseason is upon us, and Hoops Rumors has been preparing for months. Our Offseason Outlook Series began in April as the first teams were eliminated from the playoffs and ran through Wednesday night, as we pondered how the Kings will proceed as they face an apparent turning point in their relationship with DeMarcus Cousins. All 30 teams are covered below in this recap of the series, so dive in to get ready for the whirlwind of player movement that’s poised to descend upon the league.

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Southwest

Northwest

Pacific

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Offseason Outlook: Sacramento Kings

June 24th, 2015 at 8:06pm CST by Will Joseph

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (6th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $53,108,530
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,637,394
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $29,537,201
  • Total: $85,283,125

For the ninth straight time, the Kings suffered a losing season and failed to make the playoffs. The hope, from Sacramento’s perspective, is that the team will finally take a quantum leap forward in its long rebuilding process. Time, however, is running out for that procedure to include star DeMarcus Cousins, who lately has been the subject of a bevy of trade rumors. This offseason is a particularly important one for the Kings because of the front office shakeup the franchise experienced and the fact they will be playing their last season at the old arena before moving into their new downtown arena in the fall of 2016.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

While the Kings have seven players under guaranteed contracts for next season, that doesn’t mean they necessarily have depth, and they are without several areas that are in need of improvement. Cousins is locked in for three more seasons for a total of $47MM, and he had a terrific year, with averages of 24.1 points per game and 12.7 rebounds per game. He will turn 25 going into the 2015/16 seasons, with his first five seasons in the league ending without a playoff appearance. Yet despite four consecutive draft lottery selections, the Kings are yet to find a secondary star with the ability to support Cousins.

This might be the season the Kings ditch him and move in an entirely different direction, according to recent reports that claim coach George Karl has an intense desire for the Kings to trade him. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reports Karl and some members of the team’s front office have expressed to executives and coaches from other teams that they hope to have owner Vivek Ranadive’s blessing to trade the All-Star soon.

Ranadive and vice president of basketball and franchise operations Vlade Divac have insisted time and again that the team has no plans to trade Cousins, however, according to Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee. Divac has said the team is looking for players who will complement Cousins’ skills. 

“That is not happening,” Divac said about the possibility of moving Cousins, “but I would love to do something, a smaller move, before the draft. We have a lot of changes to make. The league is much more up-tempo now, and we need more three-point shooting. If we don’t get that in the draft, we’ll be active in free agency and see about making trades later in the offseason.”

Still, the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks and Nuggets have been tied to Cousins as potential suitors and trade partners. The Nuggets’ interest is tied to the fact that both Denver’s coach and GM were let go by the Kings. The Nuggets have been increasingly viewed as a team likely to go after Cousins since Denver’s hiring of ex-Kings coach Michael Malone this month, according to Marc Stein of ESPN.com.

The idea that he might be on the block was ignited earlier this season amid Sacramento’s pair of midseason coaching changes. Cousins, who connected with Malone, released a statement expressing support for then-candidate Karl. The Kings also hired Divac late in the season and displaced GM Pete D’Alessandro, who’s now with the Nuggets. Cousins has asked not to be traded, as Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee notes (Twitter link).

Cousins has privately feared that Karl wanted him out, especially after Karl’s remark in April that he’s never had one player who would be untradeable, tweets Jones. One player that Karl would reportedly like to have replace Cousins is free agent big man JaVale McGee, reports Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). McGee previously played for Karl in Denver.

For now, at the very least, Cousins is on the Kings, and small forward Rudy Gay is his partner on the perimeter, with three years and $40MM left on his deal. Gay, too, has been a subject of trade rumors. Kings executives believe it’ll be tough to find value for Cousins and believe they have a better chance to find the right trade for Gay, according to Wojnarowski in the aforementioned piece. Sacramento is pursuing trades for Gay and the rest of its roster, Wojnarowski reports.

Cousins and Gay aside, the Kings do not have much else in terms of dependable talent. That, of course, is part of the reason they experienced another losing season. There were a few exceptions. Point guard Darren Collison, who is signed for two more years at $10MM, played well in his return to a starting role. Ben McLemore, after getting more minutes, improved his shooting statistics to respectable figures. McLemore improved his field goal percentage from 38% in 2013/14 to 44% this past season.

Depth and improved shooting are two major areas of concern this offseason for the Kings — besides, of course, the Cousins saga. The Kings, who have some cap space this summer, but not much wiggle room, have been a poor shooting team for a couple of years now, and that didn’t change this past season. They ranked 28th in both 3-pointers made and 3-pointers attempted. Sacramento has about $53MM in guaranteed salary against a projected $67.1MM cap for next season, not counting its first-round pick at No. 6., but with the team seemingly checking in on so many potential trades, it’s challenging to predict how much the Kings will have in terms of money and assets.

Ty Lawson is someone who can help in the area of shooting and has been linked to the Kings recently. The Nuggets and Kings have discussed a deal involving Lawson, but the sides have found little traction, reports Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. Karl is “enamored” with the notion of trading for Lawson, Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler, Berger writes in another piece, presumably in a deal that ships out Cousins.

Another name is soon-to-be free agent Rajon Rondo. The Kings and Rondo have mutual interest, as the idea of signing a one-year deal with Sacramento to rehabilitate his value around the league intrigues the point guard, Wojnarowski reports. Sacramento has long coveted Rondo, as reports have indicated, and the Kings were apparently among the teams who spoke with the Celtics shortly before Boston traded him to Dallas in December. Rondo is a name that makes sense for the Kings, with or without Cousins, because of how much Karl likes to push the ball in an up-tempo offense.

While it appears the team will be active on both the trade and free agent markets, the Kings also have the No. 6 pick in the draft. It’s an asset they are likely to move, however, tweets Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated. If the Kings hold on to the pick, I would expect them to scoop up a big man. It’s a good year for big men in the draft, and the Kings have a hole at power forward because Jason Thompson is among the least productive starters in the league. What’s more, the Kings are intrigued by the pairing of Frank Kaminsky and Cousins, according to Mannix (Twitter link). Kaminsky had a strong workout with the Kings on Monday, Mannix adds.

It’s already shaping up to be an intriguing offseason for the Kings, who have a new coach, new vice president of basketball and franchise operations and a new arena on the way, yet have suffered the same fate for nine straight seasons. Whether or not the team moves Cousins dictates the rest of the summer, one that Divac has promised would be the last the Kings go through as a team with a top-10 draft pick.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Kings waived Ellington in August 2014 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 23rd, 2015 at 11:59am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (24th overall)
  • 2nd Round (53th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $26,283,613
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $10,522,500
  • Options: $52,522,306
  • Cap Holds: $23,515,961
  • Total: $112,844,380

The Cavaliers went through an astounding transformation in the space of one year that wasn’t limited to the obvious change that took place when LeBron James came back. To be certain, the return of James had some degree of influence on just about every move the team has made since, and even some of those that took place before, as GM David Griffin and company cleared the cap space necessary to sign him for the max. Still, only four of the players who ended the 2013/14 season on the Cavs roster are still with the team, and coach David Blatt is new, too. Griffin, in his first full year on the job, has been busy, and he’ll stay that way.

"Dec

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Only four Cavs have guaranteed contracts for next season, and as many as 10 players are either headed for free agency or can choose to do so. The Cavs will have to pay dearly if they’re to keep together a roster that, even with two of its three best players injured, took the Warriors to six games in the Finals. Tristan Thompson is in line for a sizable raise from his rookie scale salary of not much more than $5.138MM, and James, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova also appear likely to command raises, to varying degrees. The Cavs are reportedly bracing for a payroll that ends up between $100MM and $110MM, figures that don’t include the luxury taxes they’d incur for crossing the tax threshold, projected at only $81.6MM. Owner Dan Gilbert appears willing to pay to help Cleveland win an elusive championship, but winning isn’t just a matter of throwing money around.

That said, the Cavs will assuredly make another max offer to James when he opts out, as he’s widely expected to do in search of a two-year max deal with a player option. Cleveland will certainly accommodate that wish, moving on to the thornier issue of Love. The former All-Star whom James pushed the team to acquire didn’t appear to be the right fit for the Cavs. His numbers dropped off precipitously, and while that wasn’t thoroughly unexpected on a team with far more talent than he’d ever played with, Love nonetheless looked at times like a mere shadow of the player he was in Minnesota. That the team won two playoff series and came halfway to winning the Finals without him further speaks to the idea that the Cavs would be just fine if he weren’t there. Rumors have gone on for months suggesting Love would seek a way out, but Love has been just as persistently expressing that he’s intent on staying in Cleveland. Griffin expects the Jeff Schwartz client to opt out even though he told Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group in January that he planned to opt in, but it nonetheless appears as though he intends to re-sign with the Cavs. Conflicting reports paint somewhat different pictures of whether the Cavs intend to make a max offer for him. The Cavs would have a difficult time replacing him if he were to go elsewhere, so it would not be surprising if that max offer indeed goes on the table.

The return of James and Love would allow the team to keep its core intact, but so many other decisions loom about the rest of the roster. Thompson plays Love’s position, but he also shares agent Rich Paul with James, who’s indicated that he wants Thompson to stay with the Cavs. Reports show that Thompson and Paul have asked for a max or a near-max deal after rejecting a four-year, $52MM offer from the Cavs during extension talks this past fall. A max deal for Thompson would start at an estimated $15.8MM and go up by 7.5% of that initial amount each season, so it would entail far more than what Cleveland apparently offered in an extension if Thompson wants a lengthy deal. The former No. 4 overall pick could instead demand a short-term deal to more quickly reach unrestricted free agency and the escalated salary cap that’s on the horizon. A max deal, whatever its length, might not be the ideal outcome for Cleveland, given the positional overlap and Thompson’s modest career scoring average of 10.1 points per game, but retaining a talented inside force with upside, and keeping James satisfied, would have its benefits.

Smith plans to opt out and re-sign, as he told ESPN’s Chris Broussard, but the Cavs surely won’t want to lock themselves into paying a premium over a long, fully guaranteed deal to a player who’s shown as much inconsistency as Smith has over the course of his career. Eight-figure salaries seem like a reach, but Smith is surely looking for better than his nearly $6.4MM option would give him. A compromise involving salaries of $8MM or slightly more would make sense, though that’s just my speculation.

Smith’s companion in the trade that brought them both in from the Knicks is also poised to hit free agency, though Iman Shumpert’s will be of the restricted variety. That said, the advantage that Cleveland has to match all competing bids is mitigated to a degree by the knowledge other suitors have of the Cavs’ cap situation. Given Cleveland’s other plans, the Cavs wouldn’t have the means to sign a comparable replacement for Shumpert if they failed to match an offer sheet from another team. Six teams have already expressed interest in the Happy Walters client and league executives believe he’ll command salaries in excess of $8MM, Haynes reports. Still, Shumpert isn’t an elite defender; he only drew one vote in All-Defensive Team voting this year, though he was eighth among shooting guards in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus. He’s a passable three-point shooter, but not a dangerous one, so he doesn’t quite fit the “three-and-D” mold. The 25-year-old was expected to start for the Cavs when the trade went down, but he wound up coming off the bench after Smith proved more valuable while a shoulder injury delayed Shumpert’s Cavs debut. Cleveland would have to swallow hard before matching an offer sheet with eight-figure salaries if it comes to it.

Dellavedova sure outplayed his minimum-salary deal in the Finals, but the Cavs surely won’t get carried away with a small sample size. An inflated price for Dellavedova wouldn’t cost other teams as much as it would cost the Cavs, given the team’s expected tax bill, so that would give another team incentive to come in high with an offer for him. Still, it would be surprising to see the undrafted guard end up with a salary greater than the value of the $3.376MM taxpayer’s mid-level exception next season, and if he does, Cleveland wouldn’t be wise to match an offer sheet for that sort of money.

The Cavs could use their Early Bird rights with Dellavedova to bring him back for a taxpayer’s mid-level amount and still have their actual taxpayer’s mid-level to spend on an outside free agent. The Cavs would like to add a facilitating guard who can either back up or play alongside Kyrie Irving, as Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com reported. Former Cleveland State standout Norris Cole, another Paul client and a former teammate of James on the Heat, looms as a possibility, though the Pelicans can match offers for him as a restricted free agent. So, too, is the case for the Spurs and Cory Joseph, another former first-round pick with whom the Cavs have been linked. Mo Williams reportedly has strong interest in the Cavs, but the taxpayer’s mid-level would represent a pay cut, and at 32, he’s outside the age range of 26 to 30 that Griffin has said he’ll prioritize.

Regardless of whom the Cavs might sign with that exception, Brendan Haywood‘s non-guaranteed salary gives the team a uniquely valuable trade chip. The Cavs can take in as much as $5MM more than Haywood’s salary via trade if they manage to pull off the trade after the July Moratorium but before they cross the tax threshold, or $13,253,125 if they’re already a tax team. So, technically, they could trade Haywood for David Lee, allowing the Warriors to move off Lee’s nearly $15.494MM salary and waive Hawyood’s non-guaranteed salary to help mitigate their tax bill. The efficacy for Cleveland of paying Lee that much money, plus the taxes on that amount, to compete for time at the same position as Love and Thompson play is dubious, however. The Cavs could instead dangle the Haywood contract to try to acquire just about any trade candidate on a team looking to shed salary, though it appears, from Windhorst’s latest report on the team’s efforts to find a taker for Haywood, that Cleveland is looking at modestly priced options, a sign of some level of austerity.

Still, it doesn’t seem as though the Cavs will do much holding back financially as they aim to cross the finish line after coming ever so close to a championship this year. Griffin has made it clear that he understands that as James enters his 30s, the team has no time to hesitate. The Cavs will no doubt try to win as much as they can before James’ vast abilities inevitably tail off. It’s difficult to predict exactly when that will happen, but Cleveland would be wise to plan for it. Re-signing Smith, Shumpert and others to reasonably priced short-term deals this summer will give the team a chance to get out from the tax in a few years, which could forestall repeat-0ffender tax penalties and, most crucially, allow the Cavs access to tools like the full mid-level and sign-and-trades again. Flexibility is key for NBA teams, and even as Cleveland commits to a bloated payroll for 2015/16, the Cavs can help themselves this summer if they retain as much capacity as possible to once more go through significant chances if necessary a few short years from now.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Irving’s salary will be equivalent to the league’s maximum for a player with four years of experience. That figure won’t be known until after the July Moratorium, so an estimate is used above.
2 — Mozgov’s salary was originally in the form of a team option, but the Nuggets have picked up that option.
3 — Haywood’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1st.
4 — The cap hold for James if he opts out would be the lesser of $24,773,280 and the league’s maximum salary for a player with 10 or more years of experience. It’d almost certainly be the latter, an estimated $22,120,000.
5 — The cap hold for Love if he opts out would be the lesser of $23,578,593 and the league’s maximum salary for a player with seven to nine years of experience. It’d almost certainly be the latter, an estimated $18,960,000.
6 — The cap hold for Smith would be $9,773,265 if he opts out.
7 — The cap hold for Miller would be $3,278,400 if he opts out.
8 — The cap hold for Dellavedova would be $947,276 if the Cavaliers elect not to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. 

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Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors

June 22nd, 2015 at 10:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (30th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $77,601,793
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $745,059
  • Options: $5,085,964
  • Cap Holds: $14,716,179
  • Total: $98,148,995

Continuity is a word rarely attached to any team’s offseason strategy. Most franchises spend those months upgrading at positions of need, executing a rebuilding plan, retooling with young players or making flashy moves. Even many championship teams rarely stand pat, either out of necessity because of salary issues or free agency, or under the assumption they cannot repeat without a different mix.

Courtesy USA TODAY Sports Images

Courtesy USA TODAY Sports Images

Not so with the Golden State Warriors. Their avowed goal this offseason, as GM Bob Myers declared after the team’s first title in 40 years, is to keep their young core intact. Considering that all but one of their starters is 27 years old or younger, that’s not surprising. Sure, they’d like to make a couple of tweaks but the Warriors seem poised to defend their title with most, if not all, of their rotation players returning in their same roles.

“When you have the success that we had, you like to keep it together as much as possible,” Myers said during his postseason press conference. “It doesn’t mean you don’t open your eyes to see what else is out there, but if it’s a close call, you always want to retain the talent that got you a championship.”

Golden State’s front office has one major order of business this summer — retaining its best frontcourt player, Draymond Green. That will come at a high price financially but there’s little chance that Green will wind up in another uniform. Green, who is represented by former NBA player B.J. Armstrong of the Arn Tellem-led Wasserman Media Group, is due for a massive increase in pay after making less than $1MM this past season. It’s expected that the restricted free agent will command a max level contract or something in that ballpark with a starting salary of approximately $16MM.

Green has emerged as one of the league’s top two-way players and should have his share of suitors. There were rumblings during the season that the Pistons would make a strong push for Green, who grew up in Michigan and developed into an All-American talent under coach Tom Izzo at Michigan State. But while the Warriors cannot address the situation publicly, they have quietly made it known that they will match any offer that comes his way. Green himself said he wasn’t going anywhere, though that proclamation came during the euphoria of the championship celebration.

It may actually be in the Warriors’ best interest if Green signs an offer sheet. That would allow them to lock up Green for another three or four seasons without any tricky negotiations. While it’s almost unfathomable to believe that Green would sign his qualifying offer of $2.725MM, he could attempt to work out a shorter deal with the Warriors that would allow him to swiftly re-enter the market as an unrestricted free agent.

The tricky part for the club is securing Green’s services long term while avoiding the dreaded luxury tax in the short term. They have $77.6MM in salary commitments for next season with the tax line projected to come in at $81.6MM. The easiest way to stay under the tax threshold is to deal David Lee‘s expiring contract of approximately $15.49MM and that’s the most likely outcome. While Myers hasn’t committed to doing that, it’s the only viable way to avoid the luxury tax without dealing one of those core players. Though Lee played a valuable role in the NBA Finals, he dropped out of coach Steve Kerr‘s rotation during the regular season.

Naturally, everyone around the league is well aware of the Warriors’ predicament and Golden State may have to give up an additional asset or two, such as draft picks, to make the deal happen. The Jazz reportedly engaged in serious discussions with the Warriors about acquiring Lee at the trade deadline and he could still help Utah and many other teams with his offensive skills. But no team has a trade exception big enough to absorb Lee’s contract, so the Warriors must find a trade partner with at least that much cap space or one that possesses some major non-guaranteed contracts. A third party might be required to pull it off.

A big reason why the Warriors have so much guaranteed money tied up is that they were proactive in re-signing the Splash Brothers. Klay Thompson‘s four-year extension with a starting salary of $15.5MM kicks in next season. The contract of reigning league MVP Stephen Curry has two years remaining and he will make the bargain basement rate of $11.37MM next season.

Once the Green-Lee issues are decided, the Warriors can focus on working out a contract extension with Harrison Barnes. Both parties are interested in getting something done by the October 31st deadline and it’s estimated that Barnes will command an annual salary in the $10MM-$12MM range. That wouldn’t affect the Warriors’ bottom line next season, since the extension would kick in for the 2016/17 season when the league’s salary cap is expected to dramatically increase.

The team’s only unrestricted free agent is veteran reserve shooting guard Leandro Barbosa, who was part of Kerr’s rotation most of the season. If Barbosa does not return, they will be in the market for a backup shooting guard. The Warriors also have to decide whether to exercise their $3.815MM team option on Marreese Speights — an unlikely prospect considering their cap situation — and extend qualifying offers to Justin Holiday and Ognjen Kuzmic.

They can add depth with their first-round pick at No. 30 overall (they don’t have a second rounder) and through free agency via exceptions. They have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available if they can avoid the luxury-tax apron. Otherwise, they’d be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception of $3.376MM.

That’s how they could make those aforementioned tweaks. Otherwise, the Warriors seem content to bring the not-so-old gang back and stay the course.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Thompson’s salary will be the league’s maximum salary for a player with four years of experience or $15,501,000, whichever is less.
2 — McAdoo’s salary is partially guaranteed for $100,000.
3 — The cap hold for Speights would be $4,754,750 if the Warriors decline their team option on him.
4 — The cap hold for Rush would be $947,276 if he opts out.
5 — The cap hold for Green would be $947,276 if the team decides not to tender a qualifying offer.
6 — The cap hold for Holiday would be $947,276 if the team decides not to tender a qualifying offer.
7 — The cap hold for Kuzmic would be $947,276 if the team decides not to tender a qualifying offer.
8 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why these players technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. 

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