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Offseason Outlook: New York Knicks

June 21st, 2015 at 11:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Alexey Shved ($6,235,908) — $4,102,571 qualifying offer
  • Quincy Acy ($1,181,348) — $1,181,348 qualifying offer3
  • Travis Wear ($1,045,059) — $1,045,059 qualifying offer4

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (4th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $32,427,391
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,792,335
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $39,500,715
  • Total: $73,720,441

The Knicks stumbled to a 17-65 record this season, but their most damaging loss may have come at the draft lottery. New York was the only team to drop when the ping pong balls were drawn May 19th, sliding from second to fourth and lessening the potential reward for a miserable season. The Knicks hurt their own cause with three April wins that allowed Minnesota to finish with the league’s worst record. With the best odds to win the lottery, the Timberwolves came away with the top pick.

Jan 28, 2015; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks president Phil Jackson watches a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images

Knicks fans were expecting something closer to 65 wins after Phil Jackson reached an agreement to become team president in March of 2014. But the season soured quickly for Jackson and rookie coach Derek Fisher. The first self-inflicted wound was a trade that sent Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton to Dallas in exchange for Samuel Dalembert,  Jose Calderon, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington and two draft picks that became Cleanthony Early and Thanasis Antetokounmpo. While Chandler gave the Mavericks the rim protector they needed and helped Dallas reach the playoffs, the deal worked out much worse for New York. Dalembert appeared in just 32 games before being waived January 5th. Calderon battled injuries throughout the season and is on the books for two more years at more than $15MM. Larkin started 22 games, but shot just 30% from three-point range and is an unrestricted free agent. Ellington was traded to the Kings before the season started and ended the year with the Lakers. Early saw limited playing time in 39 games, and Antetokounmpo spent the year in the D-League.

Even worse was a knee injury to Carmelo Anthony in the first season of a five-year contract worth more than $124MM. When Anthony spurned several suitors last July to re-sign in New York, it was hailed as a sign of a turnaround. However, the balky knee limited the Knicks star to just 40 games in which he averaged 24.2 points and 6.6 rebounds. He was voted into a starting spot in the All-Star Game by the fans, but was shut down for the season shortly afterward to undergo surgery on a patellar tendon in his left knee.

Any Knicks optimism for 2015/16 centers around the return of a healthy Anthony, success in the draft and an estimated $27MM to spend on free agents. Anthony recently told Ian Begley of ESPN.com that his recovery is ahead of schedule and he is “doing very well.” The draft prospects appear murky as Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns seems headed to the Wolves with the first pick, and the Knicks’ wish that either Duke center Jahlil Okafor or Ohio State point guard D’Angelo Russell slides to No. 4 is not expected to come true. There has been speculation that New York may wind up dealing its pick if those three are off the board.

The Knicks are pinning most of their hopes on free agency, as Jackson explained in April and as Marc Berman of The New York Post relayed. “In the present day in the NBA, 19-, 20-year-olds, coming into the league, it’s really hard to project what that player will be like in his first contract situation,’’ Jackson said. “We know what the first-round pick will mean to us, but we also know we will build the team on free agents. We have 190 players or so who will be free agents. That’s where our priority stands.’’ The Pistons’ Greg Monroe has emerged as a prime target as New York hopes to add some much-needed size. However, some other marquee players may already be out of reach. The Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t expected to consider New York because of its status as a rebuilding team, according to Ric Bucher of Bleacher Report, and Grizzlies’ center Marc Gasol isn’t cut out for the New York lifestyle, at least according to teammate Beno Udrih. “They’re not going to get him,” Udrih said to Bleacher Report’s Jared Zwerling. “He’s a laid-back guy and doesn’t like drama.” In April, Berman speculated about other possible Knicks targets, mentioning Monroe, along with Paul Millsap, Rajon Rondo, Wesley Matthews, DeAndre Jordan, Robin Lopez, Tobias Harris, DeMarre Carroll, Khris Middleton, Danny Green and Patrick Beverley.

The Knicks also have several of their own free agents to address. Andrea Bargnani will be an unrestricted free agent after eating up $17.25MM in cap space last season. He would like to return to New York, but the Knicks are reportedly only interested at a minimum salary. In addition to Larkin, Jason Smith, Cole Aldrich, Louis Amundson and Lance Thomas will all become unrestricted free agents in July, and their prospects will be tied to what New York does in free agency. Alexey Shved, Quincy Acy and Travis Wear will be restricted free agents. All of the team’s incumbent free agents would like to come back, GM Steve Mills said recently, but whether the Knicks want much of the same cast from this year to return is another story.

After a disastrous season on nearly every front, the Knicks have a lot of work ahead to get back on the road to respectability. The key remains Jackson who, with 11 NBA championships as a head coach, was thought to be a major selling point in attracting stars to New York. However, the 17-65 debacle has taken away some of his allure. Warriors board member/consultant Jerry West, who had enormous success in the league both as a player and GM, recently took swipes at Jackson in a radio interview on SiriusXM Bleacher Report Radio’s “NBA Sunday Tip.” “It’s a completely different challenge for him,” West said of Jackson’s role in New York. “He’s had teams with enormous talent. He’s coached them brilliantly and won championships, but it’s a different challenge for him.’’ West said Jackson damaged his reputation not only with the Dallas trade, but also with a three-team deal in January that sent Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith to the Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers, while bringing back Amundson, Alex Kirk, Lance Thomas and a 2019 second-round pick. “With Phil, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens back there,” West said. “They didn’t have the kind of year I’m sure they wanted to have. Everyone in the league feels like they made two trades that made helped Cleveland tremendously and one that helped Dallas.’’ If West’s assessment is shared throughout the league, top-tier free agents won’t be ready to take the Knicks seriously and the rebuilding process in New York could be much longer than anyone wants to admit.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Ledo’s salary becomes partially guaranteed for $100K if he remains under contract through August 1st, and it becomes partially guaranteed for $200K if he remains under contract through the date of his team’s first regular season game.
2 — Galloway’s salary becomes partially guaranteed for $220K if he remains under contract through July 1st, and it becomes partially guaranteed for $440K if he remains under contract through September 15th.
3 — The cap hold for Acy would be $947,276 if the Knicks elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for Wear would be $845,059 if the Knicks elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
5 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why these players technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 19th, 2015 at 11:05am CST by Charlie Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (1st overall)
  • 2nd Round (31st overall)
  • 2nd Round (36th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $56,065,800
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $947,276
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $31,367,104
  • Total: $88,380,180

The Timberwolves lay claim to the longest playoff drought in the NBA, but with the luck they’ve seen over the last calendar year, it certainly looks like the tide is turning in Minnesota’s favor. It’s been nearly 10 months since the franchise officially sent Kevin Love to the Cavaliers in exchange for a package that included the reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins, who flashed definite superstar potential during his first year in the NBA. With a roster chock full of young talent and the No. 1 selection in the upcoming draft, the Wolves have a chance to be one of the NBA’s best teams in just a few seasons; they’ll just need to manage their resources correctly, beginning with the moves they make this summer.

"Mar

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

For the first time in franchise history, the Wolves own the top pick in the draft. There’s always the chance that team president Flip Saunders swings a trade to move down in the order or makes an off-the-wall choice, but odds point to Adam Silver calling either Karl-Anthony Towns’ or Jahlil Okafor’s name as the first overall selection next week. Both of the big men have a chance to become cornerstone players for whatever team selects them, but Towns’ outside shooting and superior low-post defense seemingly make him a better fit alongside back-to-the-basket monster Nikola Pekovic, whom the Wolves inked to a five-year, $60MM deal just two summers back.

Pekovic has had trouble staying healthy since signing his big contract, and while Gorgui Dieng has shown he’s capable of contributing during his absence, Towns’ offensive versatility and defensive prowess could improve the club’s less-than-stellar floor spacing and nearly non-existent rim protection; two components crucial to today’s NBA. Plus, Towns could play alongside either, as his skillset means he could see plenty of time playing the four at the next level. Reports originally pegged Saunders to prefer Okafor, but the latest rumors suggest Towns might be the Wolves’ top choice. A frontcourt consisting of whichever big man they choose alongside Pekovic, Dieng, Adreian Payne, and Anthony Bennett is a solid young group with a chance to be exceptionally deep from top to bottom, especially with mentorship from future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett.

Garnett is entering free agency, but he’s reportedly expected to re-sign with the team for two more years. The Wolves have apparently wanted him to do so since the trade that brought him in from the Nets, and while it seemed in April that KG hadn’t made any definitive decision just yet, that looks like the direction he’s been leaning, and Saunders anticipates that he’ll be back. Just what sort of money Garnett will make isn’t so easy to predict. Minnesota has the Bird Rights necessary to pay him up to the max, but he’s no longer worth that sort of money, and even the $12MM he made this past season seems like a bit much. Perhaps Dirk Nowitzki‘s three-year, $25MM contract with the Mavericks, one that provides an average annual value of about $8.3MM, will serve as an example to follow for Garnett’s two-year arrangement. Nowitzki made tremendous financial sacrifice, but he’s a significantly more productive player than Garnett is at this point, and that was especially so last year when he signed. Such a deal would allow the Wolves plenty of room to use the full $5.434MM mid-level exception without having to worry about the projected $81.6MM tax line.

It would apparently take that mid-level amount to sign Euroleague MVP Nemanja Bjelica, whose NBA rights the Timberwolves own. Bjelica and the Wolves seem to have mutual interest, but shelling out a long-term mid-level deal may well be too rich for Minnesota’s blood. A handful of teams have interest in trading for his rights, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities, and while another report casts doubt on any pursuit from one of those teams, the Wolves seem to have a chance to pick up another asset for the future in return for Bjelica, who’s already 27.

Attaching Bjelica to Chase Budinger in trade proposals would ostensibly make it easier for the Wolves to offload the six-year veteran small forward, whom the Wolves reportedly sought to trade early last season and again at the deadline. The Sixers apparently had interest just before the deadline, and given Philadelphia’s affinity for draft-and-stash talent like Bjelica, that could be an avenue for Minnesota to explore this summer. Budinger was somewhat more productive this past season than in 2013/14, so that would help Saunders find a new home for him, though the now 27-year-old did compile the sixth-most minutes on Minnesota’s injury-hit roster this past season.

Trade rumors swirled around Ricky Rubio this spring, with conflicting reports painting different pictures of whether he wants out and whether the Timberwolves would be pleased to accommodate such a wish. Rubio himself said he’d like to stay, and Saunders mentioned Rubio among the team’s building blocks, calling him a “great point guard,” so neither side is giving any public indication of trade interest. It’s unlikely that any player, aside from Wiggins, anyway, is truly off-limits on a team that just finished with the league’s worst record, but with a new four-year, $55MM extension kicking in for next season, Rubio probably isn’t going anywhere, at least until he can prove his health to potential suitors. It’s tough to envision any team wanting to take on a player signed to eight-figure salaries for that length of time who’s coming off a 22-game season and who’s played in only 65% of his team’s games over his career.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have the opportunity to enter next season with much of their roster intact. They’ll have the chance to tender inexpensive qualifying offers to Arinze Onuaku, Justin Hamilton, and Robbie Hummel, with the latter two seemingly the most likely candidates of the trio to return next season. Saunders has shown a fondness for both players, although he declined to make a qualifying to Hummel last year before eventually re-signing him. Given the team’s potential depth down low, it seems like Hamilton is a long shot to be back next year, while Hummel might be offered a one-year, minimum salary pact to stick around, though that’s just my speculation.

The Wolves can begin next season as the first team in NBA history with three consecutive No. 1 picks on their roster, so more optimism is present than usually surrounds a 16-win team. Still, Minnesota has a long way to go to become a contender, particularly in the brutal Western Conference. The Wolves should improve on their record from this past season with better health and continued development of their youthful core in 2015/16, but with limited cap flexibility, especially with Garnett poised to return, a palpable limit exists on just how much better the team can be next season. A Bucks-style leap from the league’s worst record into the playoffs the very next year doesn’t appear to be forthcoming for Minnesota.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Budinger’s salary for 2015/16 was originally in the form of a player option, but in April he formally opted in.
2 — The cap hold for Hamilton would be $947,276 if the Timberwolves elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
3 — The cap hold for Hummel would be $1,144,000 if the Timberwolves elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for Onuaku would be $947,276 if the Timberwolves elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
5 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why players like Jeffers technically remain on the books.

Chuck Myron was a contributing writer to this story. The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. 

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Lakers

June 15th, 2015 at 2:44pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Vander Blue ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer4

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (2nd overall)
  • 1st Round (27th overall)
  • 2nd Round (34th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $35,075,659
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,516,525
  • Options: $10,100,602
  • Cap Holds: $43,886,673
  • Total: $92,579,459

It’s virtually impossible to win 16 championships in a 62-year span, as the Lakers did, without some measure of luck. It seemed as though fortune had turned on the purple-and-gold in the years since their 2010 title, but when the Lakers emerged from last month’s lottery with the No. 2 overall pick, it was perhaps a signal that the dark cloud over the team, epitomized by the franchise-worst record of this past season, was finally breaking up. It wasn’t the best-case scenario of winning the No. 1 overall pick, but with the Lakers reportedly having zeroed in on Jahlil Okafor and with Karl-Anthony Towns apparently having grown on Wolves coach/executive Flip Saunders, the Lakers might end up with their first choice, anyway. Certainly, it was far from the worst possible outcome, which involved the Lakers tumbling out of the top five and forfeiting their pick to the Sixers, a looming consequence of the ill-fated Steve Nash sign-and-trade. The Lakers still have to give up a first-round pick because of that trade, but given this year’s high pick and their chance to sign marquee free agents this summer, the pick they ultimately give up may well be outside the top 10, if not the lottery entirely.

"Jan

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A healthy return for Kobe Bryant would certainly help the Lakers to that sort of outcome. He was inefficient last season, but had precious little talent around him, and coach Byron Scott has promised to play him fewer minutes this time around to help keep him fresh and avoid injury. Okafor would likely be able to alleviate some of the scoring burden, as his well-developed low-post presence, a rarity in the NBA, never mind among draft prospects, would give the Lakers an unusual weapon and draw the attention of defenses away from Bryant and other offensive threats.

The Lakers didn’t really have a true center this past season, aside from Robert Sacre, and that no doubt contributed to the failure of a defense that was the league’s second least-efficient, per NBA.com. However, Okafor would be a long shot to help the Lakers in that regard, since his defense also leaves much to be desired. Towns is a better defender, though he lacks Okafor’s polish, and, in any case, rookies often struggle with NBA defenses no matter their reputations entering the league. The Lakers, with little hope of vaulting into title contention even with the resources and high pick in front of them, would be wise not to worry nearly as much about how their pick will fit with the 2015/16 roster as they do about how he’d fit for 2016/17 and beyond.

Others have greater upside than Okafor does, including point guard Emmanuel Mudiay and power forward Kristaps Porzingis, neither of whom played in college. That lends a sense of mystery to them, and while each seems capable of becoming a transcendent star, they both could well turn out to be busts. Mudiay is a versatile defender capable of making spectacular plays on offense that would no doubt endear him to Lakers fans still pining for “Showtime,” but his outside shot is a question mark, a red flag for any perimeter player nowadays. Porzingis can shoot and excel in transition, too, but he lacks strength and isn’t a strong rebounder, as his ESPN and DraftExpress profiles explain.

The Lakers can also trade the pick, though GM Mitch Kupchak has made that outcome seem like a longshot. Trades are unlikely to play a key role for the Lakers this summer, outside of the team’s apparent plan to explore deals involving Nick Young. Instead, the focus come July will be on nabbing the sort of marquee free agent the Lakers have missed out on the last two summers. Reports have linked the team to a litany of players mentioned in our most recent Free Agent Power Rankings. LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Greg Monroe and Goran Dragic have all reportedly been targets at one point or another this past season and likely will be again, at least to some degree, next month. Still, those names elicit doubt. Some have said the Lakers aren’t a viable option for the nonetheless difficult to predict Aldridge, who seems to favor Dallas for now. Gasol offers few hints but clearly loves Memphis, and the funk in which his brother seemed to spend his last few seasons with the Lakers probably isn’t the best advertisement within the Gasol family. Love keeps saying he’ll be back in Cleveland. Monroe’s link to the Lakers is probably the most tenuous, as the Lakers reportedly inquired with the Pistons about trading for him but haven’t emerged as a free agent suitor for the big man. Dragic apparently viewed the Lakers as a “perfect fit” at the trade deadline, but a stream of reports since then has made it seem as though he has no intention of leaving Miami.

Plenty more impact free agents exist beyond the top 10, but none is the sort of superstar who can take over the mantle from Bryant when he retires. Rajon Rondo seemed like that sort of player not too long ago, but his ill-fated tenure in Dallas showed that he’s not in that echelon anymore. The Lakers have seemed destined to sign Rondo, a favorite of Bryant’s, though they’ve cooled on him and Bryant’s wishes aren’t necessarily the Lakers’ command, as Bleacher Report’s Kevin Ding detailed. No team is planning a max offer for the point guard, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports wrote in late April, so the Lakers may well end up with him at a reasonable price by default.

It might be mutually beneficial for both sides to consider a one-year deal. The torn ACL Rondo suffered in January 2013 clearly has had a long-term negative effect on his game, but his stock probably isn’t going to get much lower than it is now, after an apparent mutual parting of ways between him and the Mavericks midway through a playoff series. A one-year contract with the Lakers would give Rondo the opportunity to further the idea that his time in Dallas was simply the product of a poor fit and not a harbinger of sharply declining skill. It would lend the Lakers the chance to gamble on a talented player, improve in the short term, and retain flexibility for the free agency bonanza of 2016, when the salary cap is projected to take a skyward leap.

It would be wise for the Lakers to pursue short-term deals with others, too, with this summer’s marquee free agents seemingly difficult to lure. The opportunity to hit free agency again in 2016 as the cap goes up will surely be attractive to many players on the market, and the Lakers are in position to take advantage of this. Restricted free agents present a conundrum, since offer sheets have to be for two seasons, exclusive of any option years, and for three seasons if the incumbent team offers a maximum-salary deal. Still, a two-year offer sheet for Brandon Knight or Tobias Harris would allow those players to cash in come 2017, when preliminary projections show the cap taking another colossal leap, from $89MM to $108MM, and give the Lakers the chance at flexibility just as the cap heads into nine-figure territory. Speculation has linked Southern California native and former UCLA standout Russell Westbrook to the Lakers, and his contract is is set to expire in that same summer of 2017.

Still, such dreams are far in the distance. The Lakers must also decide on several of their own players with options and non-guaranteed contracts this summer, not to mention a half dozen soon-to-be free agents. Clarkson isn’t going anywhere on a minimum-salary deal that looks like a bargain after his successful rookie season, and the Lakers are reportedly likely to keep Sacre and guarantee his minimum salary. However, Jordan Hill‘s $9MM team option seems too pricey, particularly with Julius Randle returning to health and specter of a big man coming in via the No. 2 overall pick. The Lakers and Ed Davis, who intends to opt out, appear to have mutual interest in a new deal, and while the Lakers surely have their limits with him, he’s another big man who looms as a threat to squeeze out Hill.

A busy summer is ahead for the Lakers, and while fortune may again be on their side, they’d truly have to luck out to vault back into contention in a single summer. It’s nonetheless a reasonable goal for the Lakers to at least compete for a playoff berth. Winning is seemingly the most attractive quality a team can have in the eyes of top-flight free agents these days, but the Lakers probably don’t have to win quite as much as other franchises do to have an equal amount of cachet on the market. Making the playoffs in the brutal Western Conference would be a tall order for the Lakers if they don’t sign a top-10 free agent this summer, but even falling a few games short would represent tangible progress. The Lakers have seen their winning percentage drop with each successive season the past four years, so stopping that free fall should be a priority. Thanks to the bouncing lottery balls, the Lakers are in a strong position to bounce back.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Sacre’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 30th, as is reportedly likely to happen.
2 — The cap hold for Hill would be $13,500,000 if the team turns down its option on him.
3 — The cap hold for Davis would be $947,276 if he opts out, as he intends to do.
4 — The cap hold for Blue would be $947,276 if the team elects not to tender a qualifying offer.
5 — Boozer’s cap hold will be the lesser of $25.2MM and the league’s maximum salary for a player with 10 or more years of experience. It’ll almost certainly be the latter, since the max is estimated to come in at only slightly more than $22MM. So, the estimated max is listed above.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia 76ers

June 13th, 2015 at 11:46pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Henry Sims ($1,181,348) — $1,181,348 qualifying offer3
  • Glenn Robinson III ($1,045,059) — $1,045,059 qualifying offer4

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (3rd overall)
  • 2nd Round (35th overall)
  • 2nd Round (37th overall)
  • 2nd Round (47th overall)
  • 2nd Round (58th overall)
  • 2nd Round (60th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $26,703,760
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,981,791
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $25,315,805
  • Total: $55,001,356

The 76ers invigorated their fan base over the last two seasons with the “Together We Build” marketing campaign. The franchise will move on from that phase of its rebuilding plan during the 2015/16 season and will embrace a new slogan: “This Begins Now.” While the change may bring initial enthusiasm, the definition of “This” remains unclear.

Philadelphia’s overall plan from the beginning of GM Sam Hinkie’s tenure was pretty clear: liquidize the existing assets and obtain ones of higher value. The team accomplished the first part with ease. The second part has yet to come into fruition. Hinkie and company had four top-12 draft selections during the past two drafts. They shipped away one of those players, Michael Carter-Williams, because after 111 games with the team, he didn’t appear to be a top talent. Another player selected, Dario Saric, might not come to Philadelphia until the 2016/17 season, although the team reportedly wants to bring the forward stateside immediately. The remaining two players, Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel, came out of their respective one-and-done college careers playing the same position. They were both drafted with a known injury and each missed his entire first season as a Sixer. Hinkie assured them recently that they’ll have the first shot at leading the franchise, so it appears that both players will remain in town for the foreseeable future.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

It’s fair to wonder how far it can go with Embiid and Noel as the team’s pillars. Noel had a promising 2014/15 campaign and his defensive impact cannot be questioned. He was seventh-best among centers on defense, according to ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus rankings. On the other end, he managed to scrape together some offense, but his numbers are misleading. Noel scored 13.1 points per game after the All-Star break, but he needed 10.4 field goal attempts per game to hit that mark, which is roughly the same amount of shots per game that some perennial chuckers, such as J.R. Smith and Rodney Stuckey, took this season. Philadelphia clearly made a concerted effort to funnel the ball to Noel in hopes of having a Sixer win the Rookie of the Year award for the second consecutive season, and the Sixers seemingly didn’t care about the quality of basketball along the way. The Kentucky product ranked second to last among 73 NBA centers in ESPN’s Offensive Real/Plus Minus, with only Kendrick Perkins behind him. Noel was technically a rookie last season and, as is the case with many non-stars, he will get better as the talent around him improves. Yet, if he is going to reach his ceiling and become a Tyson Chandler/DeAndre Jordan type of player, he needs to be more efficient with his touches.

Embiid has a higher ceiling than Noel, but his foot injury leaves more question marks. The history of big men with these types of ailments doesn’t paint an optimistic long-term picture for the Cameroon native. Yao Ming’s career was shortened because of this type of injury. Bill Walton’s career was hampered by multiple foot injuries, causing the center to only average 36 games played per year during his 13 NBA seasons. Even Kevin Durant, who has nearly the height of a center, but doesn’t carry as much weight, had issues coming back from a foot injury. That specific injury isn’t the exact type as the one that Yao, Walton and Embiid incurred, but it derailed Durant’s season and the forward didn’t look 100% even when he did play. Still, past history doesn’t guarantee future results and if Embiid can stay healthy, he can be the type of franchise player who doesn’t allow his teammates to plan vacations during April and May.

However, even if Embiid remains healthy and becomes a star, playing next to Noel may be an awkward fit for him. The Kentucky product played minutes at the four spot this season and while he’s shown he can defend some power forwards, he is better suited to play the center position. Philadelphia has the next two seasons to evaluate if the pairing is a winning combination, as Noel’s rookie scale contract runs through the 2016/17 season. At that point, the Sixers will have to ask themselves if indeed Noel can be a top player on a winning team.

In the meantime, Philadelphia has the financial flexibility to take some chances. The team can carve out roughly $22MM in cap room if it renounces the rights to Jason Richardson. The franchise can use that cap space to obtain players with unfavorable contracts, like it did this season in the JaVale McGee trade, and gain a few assets for its troubles. It could also attempt to accelerate the rebuilding process and hit the free agent market.

Just because the Sixers have a ticket to the dance doesn’t mean every girl wants to go with them. Cap space alone won’t be enough to attract marque free agents. Philadelphia, while a major market, has one of the worst on-court situations in the league. The team plays in the Eastern Conference, which may be attractive to some stars who are angling to play in the Finals and envision an easier path than in the Western Conference. Yet, other Eastern Conference teams such as New York, Boston, Milwaukee and even Orlando have better on-court situations than Philly and could offer the same financial enticements to free agents.

One player whom the team could feasibly go after this summer is Khris Middleton, although that’s just my speculation. The Bucks will reportedly match any offer that the 23-year-old signs, but if Philly floats a Chandler Parsons-type offer or a max contract by him, Milwaukee might balk at adding that kind of deal, especially with its pursuit of an established big man that will likely require significant cap space. In addition to a potential contract for a big man, the Bucks will have to worry about extensions for MCW and Giannis Antetokounmpo over the next few seasons, while the Sixers only have Noel’s to worry about. Philadelphia will be in a better position to ignore the ramifications of clogging their cap sheet with a expensive deal for Middleton because the rest of its players will be on team-friendly deals or rookie contracts. This is not a foul-proof plan as the Bucks could easily maneuver their way under the cap with a few salary-cutting deals, like they did earlier this week, and match an exorbitant offer.  Looking at the top potential free agents, there are not any players, with the exception of Middleton, whom would be a fit for Philadelphia.

Instead, the focal point of the Sixers’ offseason will be the draft. The team owns the No.3 pick and reportedly has a firm top three of Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor. Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that Russell is “the guy they want,” but the Ohio State product recently canceled his workout with Philly because of an illness. Some have speculated that it was instead because he may have a promise from the Lakers at No. 2. Still, Los Angeles reportedly has zeroed in on selecting Okafor, so the Sixers face a strong likelihood of having Russell available to them at No. 3.

If another guard is going to be selected ahead of Russell in the draft, Emmanuel Mudiay is the likeliest candidate. Mudiay doesn’t have the jump shot and isn’t as polished as Russell, but the 19-year-old is a better athlete. He has the potential to not only be better than Russell, but to be one of the best guards in the NBA. Philadelphia went into this rebuilding phase in order to revamp the team into a legitimate contender. Taking a chance on a player who could become a superstar if he reaches his ceiling is something the Sixers should consider.

The issue with drafting Mudiay is evaluating what kind of player he is today. It’s easy to see how good he was coming out of high school. The point guard was more highly regarded than Russell coming into the season, but then Russell had a successful freshman campaign and sprung himself into the conversation for best guard in the draft class. Mudiay didn’t really get an opportunity to showcase his improvement or his skills versus better competition. He chose to play overseas and spent most of the season out with injury.

Mudiay’s circumstance isn’t that much different than Kyrie Irving‘s heading into the 2011 draft. Irving suffered a severe ligament injury and was shut down for the season after only 11 games at Duke. Irving averaged 17.5 points, 4.3 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Mudiay averaged 18 points, 5.9 assists, 6.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals during his 12 contests overseas. Only two of Irving’s games came against ranked college basketball teams; The rest were non-conference games against the likes of Colgate, Princeton, Bradley and Cal Poly Pomona. Its hard to argue that the level of competition Irving faced was any better than the professional athletes Mudiay faced abroad. Cleveland pondered selecting Derrick Williams over Irving after Williams’ successful season at Arizona. The team ultimately selected the 2011/12 Rookie of the Year and hasn’t regretted that decision. Mudiay has the potential to make the teams that pass on him second guess the decision for years to come.

Regardless of the player the 76ers select with their first round pick, he will be a much-needed addition to the roster. While their cupboard is certainly full, the current roster lacks talent. Robert Covington, who is on a team-friendly deal that will pay him roughly $3.1MM over the next three seasons, may be the only player other than their past lottery picks who could make a rotation for a playoff team. Covington shot 37.4% from behind the arc and made 167 three-pointers last season, which was the 10th most in the league. If he continues to develop, he could become one of the league’s best bargains and a potentially valuable asset.

Philadelphia has a bevy of young players, including Thomas Robinson, Isaiah Canaan, Jerami Grant and Hollis Thompson, who haven’t yet made any real impact in the league. Perhaps one of them will develop into a serviceable rotation piece, with Grant being the most likely candidate to do so. The team also has five second-round selections in this month’s draft. As it stands, the Sixers will most likely have to rely on players like these to play significant minutes during the 2015/16 season, which doesn’t bode well for Philly’s chances of improving on this year’s 18-win campaign.

Yet, improving in the win column probably isn’t the a main objective for the franchise at this point. Philadelphia could certainly change its approach and aim to become a winning team next season, but more likely, the team will simply look to add talent and stroll out a few more players who are actually in its long-term plans. Whether or not “This,” which is to begin during Hinkie’s third year at the helm, amounts to anything significant remains to be seen. Regardless, the next chapter of one of the NBA’s most interesting case studies starts on June 25th, and the league should certainly take note.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Sixers waived McGee in March, but he still had guaranteed salary on his contract for 2015/16.
2 — Canaan’s salary is partially guaranteed for $757,820, and it becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 15th.
3 — The cap hold for Sims would be $947,276 if the Sixers elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for Robinson would be $845,059 if the Sixers elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
5 — The Sixers traded for the draft rights to Saric, the 2014 No. 12 pick, on the night he was drafted, but they have yet to sign him. Philadelphia can keep his draft rights but remove his cap hold from its books if he and the team produce a written agreement that he won’t sign during the 2015/16 season.
6 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why these players technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Chuck Myron also contributed to this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Denver Nuggets

June 12th, 2015 at 2:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Will Barton ($1,181,348) — $1,181,348 qualifying offer3
  • Ian Clark ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer4

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (7th overall)
  • 2nd Round (57th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $53,124,036
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,927,335
  • Options: $2,854,940
  • Cap Holds: $22,117,078
  • Total: $89,677,385

The Nuggets roster still in many ways resembles the one that went 57-25 in 2012/13, but nothing has truly been the same in Denver since the team suffered an upset loss in the playoffs that season to the Warriors. GM Masai Ujiri left the following summer and the team replaced coach George Karl with Brian Shaw. Injuries, including the ACL tear in Gallinari’s left knee that may have been the true catalyst for Denver’s misfortune, derailed Shaw’s first season, but even with Gallinari and others back this year, the Nuggets still fell well shy of a playoff berth, and the team dismissed Shaw amid seeming apathy among the players.

Mar 4, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Ty Lawson (3) drives to the basket in the first half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Denver has moved slowly to replace Shaw, with interim coach Melvin Hunt among a field of candidates with whom the Nuggets only recently progressed into the interview stage. Hunt, Michael Malone and Mike D’Antoni seem like the primary candidates, though the team has also interviewed Blazers assistant David Vanterpool and Wizards assistant Don Newman, with Mike Woodson also reportedly lurking as a possible interviewee. Malone is the only one known to have garnered a second interview, though reports paint conflicting pictures about whether Denver’s apparent deal to bring Pete D’Alessandro back to the Nuggets front office threatens Malone’s candidacy. Hunt at one point appeared to nudge his way to the front of the pack, and while it’s not clear whether Hunt remains the favorite for the job, he has the support of the players.

Team president Josh Kroenke, GM Tim Connelly and the rest of the Nuggets braintrust will have plenty more to address once a coach is finally in place. Connelly spoke recently of a “period of transition” on the horizon as he made it clear that the team will make an aggressive push to land the sort of star the roster has lacked since the Carmelo Anthony trade. That’s easier said than done in an offseason when two of the most prominent trade candidates are already Nuggets. Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried are losing confidence in the organization and have let the team know that unless it makes a significant trade or hires an inspiring name as coach, they’d rather Denver trade them than keep them through a rebuilding process, as Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders reported. Connelly made the reported tension and frustration between Lawson and the organization readily apparent, making a public call as this year’s trade deadline passed for Lawson to “grow up.”

The Nuggets nonetheless held out for multiple first-round picks in exchange for Lawson as they discussed him at the deadline, as Grantland’s Zach Lowe reported. This month’s draft presents another opportunity to talk about Lawson with teams, and this time, the Nuggets would have more certainty about the prospects they could reap if they acquired additional picks for this year. Denver probably isn’t going to end up with a star with their own pick at No. 7, but the Nuggets would stand a better chance of doing so if they packaged that pick along with Lawson in offers to the Lakers, Sixers and Knicks, the teams in possession of picks two through four. Each has a need at the point. The Lakers were among the teams expressing interest in Lawson at the deadline, according to ESPN’s Chris Broussard, but that doesn’t appear to be the case for either Philadelphia or New York.

The Mavs don’t appear to have Lawson at the forefront of their priorities, even though there’s apparently a level of mutual interest between Dallas and the six-year veteran. Kings coach George Karl apparently would love to acquire Lawson or any of the players he used to coach on the Nuggets, but just how willing Denver, with D’Alessandro in tow, would be to deal with Sacramento this summer remains to be seen, never mind the confusion that’s reigned in the Kings front office.

Faried emerged as late-first-round steal in his first two NBA seasons under Karl, but multiple reports have indicated that the Nuggets weren’t quite sold on the power forward even as they inked him to a four-year, $50MM extension this past fall. People around the league sensed as the deadline neared that Faried could be had for a particularly strong trade offer, Lowe wrote, even though it seemed a few weeks prior that Denver didn’t want to trade him. The Raptors were loosely connected to Faried in between those times, and they seem like a team that would like to have him, given their lack of a clear-cut starter at the four and the presence in Toronto of GM Masai Ujiri, who drafted Faried when he was Denver’s GM. Still, the Raptors don’t have a high draft pick and probably aren’t willing to part with stars, so trading Faried to them would probably represent a lateral move at best for Denver. Power forwards in a more traditional vein, like Faried, aren’t in vogue these days, so the Nuggets will likely find tough sledding if they try to find a trade partner who covets him.

The Nuggets, frustration with Lawson aside, probably don’t want to trade players on their roster as much as they simply want to trade for others who can become the clear-cut No. 1 option on offense that they’re been missing. The Kings have seemed steadfast against trading DeMarcus Cousins, though surely the Nuggets would cast aside any reservations they might have against doing business with the Kings if he became available. Denver was among the many teams going after Kevin Love last summer, and if Love again is on the market as either a free agent or trade commodity, the Nuggets will probably revisit that pursuit.

Denver would probably find it much easier if Love were available via trade than in free agency, given that the Nuggets don’t have the capacity to open anywhere close to max level cap room unless they clear significant salary in other moves. The desire for cap flexibility would probably fuel the team’s desire to unload Lawson, Faried or both as much as any catalyst, but the Nuggets may well want to hold off until they know a star free agent is willing to join them.

Indeed, Denver’s ledger is crowded with deals that carry into next season. Midseason trade acquisition Will Barton is the most prominent of only three free agents on the Nuggets, and it appears there’s mutual interest in a new deal. Denver has the chance to match bids for him with a small qualifying offer, and while the Nuggets will likely tender that offer, Barton probably isn’t too high on the team’s list of priorities, considering the multitude of other matters at hand.

The Nuggets, with changes on the horizon, seem likely to draft the best available player should they keep the seventh pick, even though Duke small forward Justise Winslow, Croatian small forward Mario Hezonja and Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein seem the most likely candidates to fit that bill. Those players would fill the same positions that mainstay Danilo Gallinari and promising 2014 draftee Jusuf Nurkic occupy, but Denver can’t be too worried about the way its pieces fit together when it seems poised for a shakeup. Our Eddie Scarito has Winslow going to the Nuggets in the latest Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.

New faces, from the draft and from trades, will likely dominate the Nuggets roster next season. It’s nonetheless conceivable that they keep the team intact to a degree, and certainly it would seem that Nurkic, whom the team thinks of as a steal, according to Sean Deveney of The Sporting News, is a strong candidate to return. Deveney wrote that Lawson is likely to stay put, and indeed, there appears a decent chance that the Nuggets simply won’t find offers that would do much for them and decide to sit tight in the hopes that better proposals surface toward next season’s trade deadline. Still, Kroenke’s remark about a period of transition ahead makes it difficult to envision that the team won’t undergo a major shakeup relatively soon.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Green’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1st.
2 — The cap hold for Nelson would be $3,278,400 if he opts out, as he reportedly plans to do.
3 — The cap hold for Barton would be $947,276 if the Nuggets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for Clark would be $947,276 if the Nuggets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
5 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why these players technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. 

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Heat

June 9th, 2015 at 1:12pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • No. 10 pick ($2,068,100)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (10th overall)
  • 2nd Round (40th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $42,892,085
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,772,068
  • Options: $35,047,576
  • Cap Holds: $2,068,100
  • Total: $83,779,829

The suddenly uncertain future of Dwyane Wade has rocked what appeared to be a relatively simple offseason ahead for the Heat. The primary mission had been to re-sign Goran Dragic, a prospect that seemed like a strong bet even as Dragic confirmed that he was turning down his bargain $7.5MM player option. Yet the notion of the Heat as solid front-runners to retain the point guard was shaken when Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported last month that Wade was open to opting out and that if Wade were to leave the Heat, the chances that Dragic would do the same would increase.

Jan 21, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade (3) during the first half of the game against the Charlotte Hornets at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Wade reportedly wants a three-year deal, perhaps for as much as $20MM a year, with the Heat preferring that he opt in for his $16.125MM next season and negotiate again next summer, when his existing contract expires. Wade can still score with the best of them in the NBA, finishing 11th in the league with 21.5 points per game. As usual, he dished out more assists than many point guards, racking up 4.8 per game. Still, this past season was the first in which Wade recorded a negative Defensive Box Plus/Minus, a Basketball-Reference metric, and he was a discouraging 77th among shooting guards in ESPN‘s Defensive Real Plus/Minus. The 33-year-old missed 20 games, and it’s become increasingly clear that his body isn’t what it used to be.

The question for the Heat and the rest of the league is just how valuable Wade still is. The Heat have the capacity to pay up to the maximum to retain him, but it would seem unlikely that many teams would be willing to approach that sort of level for a declining star. A one-year offer for the maximum from the Heat might be a logical compromise, but the Heat must be wary of the projected $81.6MM luxury tax line, since they were also taxpayers in three of the last four seasons. Simply bringing back Wade and Luol Deng at the values of their respective player options would mean that the max offer the Heat are expected to make to retain Dragic would give the team approximately $88MM in guaranteed salary for next season, a figure already above the tax line. Another $6MM or so for Wade would cost roughly $18MM in additional taxes. Wade is eminently valuable to the Heat, but perhaps not quite to that extent.

The Heat likely wouldn’t have the capacity to replace Wade with anyone who can score like he can if he were to depart, unless they let go of Dragic and Deng, which presents a catch-22. But in the absence of another team willing to pay dearly for Wade, the Heat may be best advised to let the market dictate Wade’s value. The Heat, should they prove unsuccessful in convincing him to opt in, need not bid against themselves and agree to any sort of deal for Wade without first allowing him to gauge his alternatives.

An opt-in from Deng would help lend some simplicity back to the Heat’s summer, and team president Pat Riley indicated that the Heat would indeed like to keep him. The now 30-year-old didn’t play like the All-Star he once was this past season in Miami, but he nonetheless still looms as a strong complementary piece on the contending team that the Heat want to be. Deng last summer reportedly sought a more lucrative contract than the two-year, nearly $20MM deal he ultimately received, but an underwhelming year in Miami may well have him convinced that he wouldn’t end up with a better deal if he hit the market again this summer. That would suggest that he’d opt in, and while Deng hasn’t indicated that he’s leaning one way or another, he has expressed contentment about playing in Miami.

The uncertainty surrounding Wade, Deng, and perhaps Dragic muddies the draft picture for Miami, which will likely go with the best available talent with the No. 10 pick. The Heat haven’t had the chance to pick in the top 10 since they largely missed with their selection of Michael Beasley in 2008. That suggests that prospects who carry risk, like center Myles Turner of Texas and Latvian power forward Kristaps Porzingis, might not be as attractive to the Heat as known quantities like Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein and Wisconsin power forward Frank Kaminsky. Still, none of them are perimeter players of the sort who might be able to replace Wade, Deng or Dragic should one of them leave. Arizona small forward Stanley Johnson, Kentucky shooting guard Devin Booker and Murray State point guard Cameron Payne are prospects in Miami’s range who’d fit that bill. Our Eddie Scarito has the Heat selecting Wisconsin small forward Sam Dekker in the latest Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.

The Heat have another option to contend with around draft time, and it would seem as though Miami is poised to make Beasley a free agent rather than pick up his team option for next season. That wouldn’t necessarily mean the end of the third tenure that the former No. 2 overall pick has had with Miami, as doing so would at least allow the Heat to keep his Non-Bird rights, but the increased flexibility is probably the Heat’s priority with so much else uncertain. The Heat have a series of partial guarantee dates throughout the summer and early season with their four non-guaranteed contracts, giving the Heat the chance to aggregate them via trade to a team looking to clear salary before those guarantee dates kick in. Hassan Whiteside has one of those four non-guaranteed contracts, but he’s not going anywhere, at least until his contract expires in 2016, when the Heat’s bargain find is poised to command a much more player-friendly deal.

The cataclysmic departure of LeBron James last year left the Heat dented, if not devastated, but they’re still in position to quickly bounce back into Eastern Conference contention if Chris Bosh comes back 100% healthy and the core remains intact. The Heat’s ability to keep that nucleus together isn’t as certain as it seemed when the season ended, but Riley is still as canny and creative as ever. Should trouble present itself, the Heat at least have their executive and the allure of South Beach on their side. Miami would certainly prefer not to have to rebuild, but the franchise would probably be able to do so rather quickly.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Walker’s salary would become partially guaranteed for $100K if he remains under contract through August 1st, for $300K if he remains under contract through November 3rd, and for $500K if he remains under contract through December 1st.
2 — The salary for Ennis would become partially guaranteed for $422,530 if he remains under contract through August 1st and fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through December 1st.
3 — Johnson’s salary would become partially guaranteed for $422,530 if he remains under contract through August 1st.
4 — If he opts out, the cap hold for Wade would be the lesser of $22,500,000 and the league’s maximum salary for a veteran of at least 10 seasons, which is likely to end up around that $22.5MM figure.
5 — The cap hold for Deng would be $11,657,353 if he opts out.
6 — The cap hold for Dragic would be $11,250,000 if he opts out, as he plans to do.
7 — The cap hold for Beasley would be $947,276 if the Heat decline their option on him.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Orlando Magic

June 8th, 2015 at 7:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (5th overall)
  • 2nd Round (51st overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $38,875,806
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $9,042,335
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $14,110,085
  • Total: $62,028,226

The biggest addition for the Orlando Magic this offseason was made before the summer. They hired a demanding, defensive-minded head coach in Scott Skiles, who has reputation for improving teams and eventually wearing out his welcome. Skiles, who has also coached Phoenix, Chicago and Milwaukee, seems like a good fit at least in the short term to guide the Magic’s core group of young players.

Dec 30, 2012; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks head coach Scott Skiles during the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace. Pistons won 96-94. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy USA TODAY Sports Images

Lottery picks Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon should all benefit from Skiles’ tutelage, particularly the 21-year-old Payton, who averaged 8.4 assists over the last two months of the season and reached double figures in points in 16 of the last 21 games. The former Magic point guard should be an ideal mentor for the current point guard to help Payton reach his potential. What promises to be an interesting dynamic is how much freedom Skiles will give Payton to run the offense. If Skiles tries to micromanage too much, it could curtail the skills of a roster that’s built to run all day and make athletic plays.

Skiles’ biggest overall challenge is to get the team to buy into his defensive philosophy. It’s no secret the Magic had one of the softest defenses in the league under former coach Jacque Vaughn and interim coach James Borrego. Orlando ranked 28th in defensive field-goal percentage at 46.3, above only the rebuilding Lakers and Timberwolves.

Skiles said when he was hired in late May that his goal was to turn the Magic into a top five defensive team, which will require a large measure of toughness that has yet to be exhibited by a majority of team’s current players. What the Magic do have is enough length and quickness at several positions to eventually become a solid defensive unit. With a top five lottery pick at its disposal, Orlando can add another versatile piece.

From a personnel standpoint, the team’s offseason will be shaped by which player it chooses with the No. 5 overall pick and the restricted free agency of starting small forward Tobias Harris. Those two factors will be intertwined. If the Magic decide to select a small forward, it would give them a ready-made replacement for Harris along with additional leverage in negotiations with him. The top half of the draft has plenty of small forward prospects, including Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson, if the Magic opt to go in that direction.

It’s more likely that the Magic will take another route. ESPN Insider Chad Ford’s latest mock draft has Orlando selecting power forward Kristaps Porzingis to pair up with center Nikola Vucevic. The Magic are enamored with the star potential of Porzingis, according to Ford, even though they selected a power forward at No. 4 (Gordon) a year ago.

DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony also projects Orlando to pick a big man — power forward/center Willie Cauley-Stein. That would certainly play into the renewed commitment to defense, since Cauley-Stein is widely considered the top defensive player in the draft with the ability to guard all five positions. It would also give the Magic a desperately-needed shotblocker — they finished 29th in total blocks last season.

The Magic are projected to have anywhere from $8.9MM-$23.5MM in salary cap space, according to Basketball Insiders, depending on how they handle Harris’ situation and the non-guaranteed contracts of two veteran guards. It seems a foregone conclusion Orlando will protect itself by extending the qualifying offer of approximately $4.4MM to Harris, who averaged a career-high 17.1 points and 6.3 rebounds last season. GM Rob Hennigan has said the team intends to keep Harris, who is certain to get a large jump in pay. But if Harris receives a healthy offer sheet it might not be an easy decision to retain him, given that he’s considered a defensive liability at his position. Harris has a negative career Defensive Box Plus Minus rating, according to Basketball-Reference, and was rated No. 76 among small forwards last season in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus Minus rankings.

The Magic can free up over $7MM by trimming Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour from the roster. Gordon has a good history with Skiles from his days with the Bulls but his career has been in steady decline since he signed with the Pistons in 2009. With a younger option to back up Oladipo in Evan Fournier already in place, it’s unlikely the team will want to pay Gordon $4.5MM to ride the end of the bench. Ridnour has a non-guaranteed $2.75MM salary but appears to have a better chance of sticking, considering there is no other obvious backup to Payton.

Orlando has two huge salary commitments to frontcourt players. Vucevic’s big extension kicks in this coming season, with a starting salary of $11.25MM and $500,000 increases over the next three seasons. At least he’s a starter. The contract they gave last summer to power forward Channing Frye could an albatross for another three seasons. Frye is slated to make nearly $8.2MM in 2015/16, a hefty price for a stretch four who averaged just 7.3 points last season and may not even be in the rotation, especially if the Magic select another power forward in the draft.

A decent portion of the cap room will be eaten up if Harris signs a new contract or the Magic match an offer sheet. They should still have the flexibility to pursue a quality free agent and/or absorb salary in a trade. Once again, the positions they will seek to upgrade will be predicated on who Orlando selects in the draft and its success in retaining Harris. A vocal veteran leader that Skills trusts could be brought in to help spread the new coach’s message in the locker room. The Magic are on the rise and with Skiles running the show, much more will be expected of this young, talented roster next season.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Gordon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 1st.
2 — Ridnour’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 10th.
3 — Dedmon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1st.
4 — Marble’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through his team’s opening day.
5 — The cap hold for O’Quinn would be $947,276 if the Magic elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
6 — The Magic drafted Vazquez 11th overall in 2005 but have yet to sign him. Orlando can keep his draft rights but remove his cap hold from its books if he and the team produce a written agreement that he won’t sign during the 2015/16 season.
7 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Richardson, who last played in the NBA in 2008/09, technically remains on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Charlotte Hornets

June 1st, 2015 at 7:49pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (9th overall)
  • 2nd Round (39th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $46,176,980
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Options: $19,500,000
  • Cap Holds: $18,747,308
  • Total: $84,424,288

The Hornets could blame their lack of progress during the past season on injuries that ravaged their starting lineup. They appeared to be on the upswing after making the 2013/14 playoffs with a mostly young core but couldn’t build off of that momentum. Kemba Walker sat out 20 games in midseason because of knee surgery and their entire starting frontcourt — Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — missed significant chunks of time during the stretch run with a variety of ailments.

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

They head into this offseason mostly hoping that better health and improved performances from current players will get them back in the playoff hunt. That’s because the Hornets do not have the salary cap space or movable pieces to cure their ailments, literally and figuratively.

Charlotte’s offseason plan will be shaped by the decisions of starters Jefferson and Gerald Henderson, who hold player options on the final year of their contracts. Jefferson has a $13.5MM option and Henderson can make $6MM by sticking around. They both indicated right after the Hornets’ disappointing season ended that they’d probably take the guaranteed money, rather than enter the free agent market. If that’s the case, the Hornets will have rely on their exceptions to bring in a veteran without making a trade.

They would have the mid-level ($5.464MM) and bi-annual (approximately $2.1MM) exceptions at their disposal but that obviously would not be enough to chase a top-level free agent. If Jefferson decided to hit the free agent market this summer, that would free up enough money to go after a major free agent. The flip side is that would create a giant hole in the middle, leaving them without their main post threat and top rebounder.

Another order of business is what to do with Jefferson’s backup, Bismack Biyombo. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2011 draft hasn’t come close to developing into the impact player the Hornets were expecting. That’s why the Hornets are not expected to extend the qualifying offer of just over $4MM to make him a restricted free agent. If that’s the case, Biyombo will be free to test the free agent waters and end his uninspiring four-year run with the franchise.

The other major free agent decision from within is whether to pursue a contract with veteran guard Mo Williams, who helped them survive the 20-game stretch when Walker was sidelined. Williams averaged 17.2 points and 6.0 assists in 27 games after the Hornets acquired him from the Timberwolves. The 32-year-old unrestricted free agent is probably looking at his last chance to land a multi-year contract. Whether Williams would be content to back up Walker, who is locked up long-term at $12MM annually, is uncertain.

What is painfully obvious is the Hornets’ desperate need for shooting. They were one of the league’s worst in that area last season. Their shooting percentages dropped off dramatically, from 44.8% overall and 36.5% on 3-point tries in 2013/14 to 42.0% and 31.8%, respectively, in 2014/15. Part of that can be attributed to the ill-advised signing of Lance Stephenson, who was a bust in his first year with the club. Stephenson shot 37.6% from the field and 17.1% from long range while eventually falling out of the rotation. Stephenson will make $9MM next season, leaving the franchise with little choice but to hope he can regain his confidence and become the productive player he was in Indiana. For his part, Stephenson vowed to spend the offseason working with the Hornets coaches on his shooting stroke.

Another player on the current roster that needs to give the Hornets more next season is forward Noah Vonleh. The Hornets used the 2014 lottery pick they received from the Pistons as part of the 2012 Ben Gordon deal on the 6’10” Vonleh, who mostly rode the bench until the frontcourt injuries forced coach Steve Clifford to give him some playing time in the final month. The No. 9 overall pick showed some flashes — he had a 16-point, 12-rebound game against the Pistons — and the Hornets need him to emerge as a rotation player, especially with the expected loss of Biyombo.

One place where the Hornets could find more shooting is the draft. They once again hold the No. 9 pick and should be able to find a wing player to suit their needs. ESPN Insider Chad Ford projects the Hornets to select Kentucky shooting guard Devin Booker in his latest mock draft, while DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony currently projects them selecting Arizona small forward Stanley Johnson. Booker would appear to be an ideal fit, given that the Hornets are committed to giving the bulk of their small forward minutes to defensive stalwart Kidd-Gilchrist. He’s considered the best pure shooter in the draft and the Hornets are “big fans” of the 6’6” Booker, according to Ford, though Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel hears that Booker isn’t what Charlotte is looking for with its pick.

Regardless, Charlotte needs to find a solid piece in this draft because it’s a leap of faith to believe it can upgrade its talent with a trade. The Hornets could have a number of significant expiring contracts to dangle, especially if Jefferson and Henderson opt in. Stephenson’s contract could eventually hold some value — there’s a team option of about $9.4MM for the 2016/17 season that will unlikely be exercised. Marvin Williams is also entering the final year of his deal, which will pay him $7MM next season. But with the major salary cap increase coming next summer, expiring contracts are not as valuable as they used to be when teams were desperate to free up space.

Thus, the Hornets will probably have to make do with what they have, draft wisely and find help with their mid-level exception to overcome last season’s sour ending.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The cap hold for Taylor would be $947,276 if the Hornets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

June 1st, 2015 at 3:30pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (18th overall)
  • 2nd Round (32nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $54,629,767
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,294,572
  • Options: $4,797,664
  • Cap Holds: $22,523,182
  • Total: $83,245,185

Maybe the Rockets would be best served to have an offseason of disappointment. That’s what happened last summer, and this spring they made their first conference finals appearance since the Hakeem Olajuwon era. Of course, the Rockets probably would have been in a better position if they had signed Chris Bosh, as they thought they were about to do, or another one of the other stars they targeted. Still, it’s undeniable that Trevor Ariza, Houston’s primary acquisition from the offseason of 2014, fit in well as a replacement for Chandler Parsons, giving James Harden a stronger defensive complement on the wing. Harden took another leap on both sides of the ball, responding to widespread criticism of his defense with a career best number in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box/Plus Minus metric and a marked gain in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus figures. Midseason pickups Josh Smith, Corey Brewer and Pablo Prigioni became key contributors, as did Jason Terry, whose outsized salary the Rockets accommodated via trade in exchange for a pair of sizable non-guaranteed deals that came via the Omer Asik deal.

Apr 26, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Josh Smith (5) waits for play to resume against the Dallas Mavericks in game four of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Rockets 121-109. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Terry’s contributions underscore how the Rockets really didn’t miss Asik or Jeremy Lin, both of whom Houston traded last summer to clear cap space for their failed run at a star. Coach Kevin McHale, who validated the team’s decision to extend his contract, and GM Daryl Morey spent the year making the best of an offseason that didn’t go to plan and a host of injuries that cost Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas significant time. The concern going forward is whether this season’s accomplishments are sustainable. The Rockets won 56 games when they should have won only 50, according to Basketball-Reference‘s expected win-loss stat, which is based on point differential. The Clippers could have denied them that Western Conference Finals bid if they had held on to a 19-point lead in Game 6 of their series.

Regardless, Houston seems to have faith in its supporting cast. The Rockets are “determined” to re-sign Beverley, and they’d like a new deal with Smith, too, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reported. Morey told Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com that the team has interest in re-signing its other free agents, too. Certainly, the Rockets would still like a third star to go with Harden and Howard, but such a pursuit may well have to wait until 2016. The Rockets can take their cap figure down to $57,577,046 barring any sort of trade, only about $10MM shy of the projected $67.1MM cap. They’d have to create roughly another $6MM or so of cap flexibility to sign Greg Monroe, the cheapest of the star-level unrestricted free agents, and somewhere around $9MM for most of the rest of the marquee free agents. Morey has made a habit of clearing salary this time of year, and surely there would be takers for Ariza and Houston’s first-round pick if he wants to renew that tradition. Cap holds for Beverley and Smith would further eat into Houston’s flexibility, but Morey could offset those with salary-clearing trades of Jones and Motiejunas.

Indeed, there is a route by which the Rockets could sign a max free agent, give Beverley whatever’s necessary to retain him and have the flexibility to at least get in the ballpark to re-sign Smith. That said, pulling off a trifecta of deals that would send away Ariza, Jones and Motiejunas for no salary in return wouldn’t be a snap, and it would come with consequences, particularly if the Rockets come up short again in free agency. Still, Morey is canny enough that NBA observers shouldn’t rule out the possibility.

That said, it seems more likely that Morey and his staff set to work on determining the right price for Beverley and Smith, whose respective market values are among the most difficult to peg in this year’s free agent class. Beverley has a reputation as a defensive bulldog, though he’s a negative in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus and not far into positive territory in Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The Rockets were 3.2 points per 100 possessions worse on defense with Beverley on the floor this season, according to NBA.com, though that number is heavily influenced by who was on the floor with him. Beverley has barely averaged 10 points per game the past two seasons and his paltry 3.4 assists per game this season were a career best. He’s a strong rebounder for his 6’1″ size, but the none of Beverley’s numbers suggest that the Rockets should pay him much more than the equivalent of the $5.464MM mid-level exception.

Still, the Rockets seem want him back, so perhaps Morey’s proprietary advanced metrics show value that other stats don’t. It’s possible that Houston’s success in the playoffs without him, as he battled in vain to return from season-ending left wrist surgery, will take him down a notch in the team’s eyes, just as postseason results may well have sweetened the team’s pot for Smith. McHale’s insertion of the oft-maligned forward into the starting lineup coincided with Houston’s comeback from a 3-1 series deficit against the Clippers, and for the playoffs as a whole, Smith had a 16.4 PER, better efficiency than he’s put up in either of his two seasons since leaving the Hawks. Some of that had to do with his 38.0% postseason three-point accuracy, an unsustainable rate based on his track record, but Smith proved nonetheless effective in his role as a supporting player instead of as a miscast star.

The Rockets don’t have the flexibility with Smith, with whom they have only Non-Bird rights, that they do with Beverley, a full Bird player. Houston can’t top $2,492,400 in a starting salary for Smith without using another exception or cap space. That’s probably less than he’s worth, though Smith is due $5.4MM from the Pistons next season, and each year through 2019/20, thanks to the stretch provision Detroit used to waive its fat contract with him in December. The next contract that the Brian Dyke and Wallace Prather client signs will defray a fraction of the Pistons’ obligation via set off, but there’s still incentive for Smith to sign for as much as he can, even if he knows he has at least $5.4MM coming. That very figure, almost equivalent to the non-taxpayer’s mid-level, seems like a fair price for Smith’s next deal, a cost that would be quite difficult, if not impossible, for the Rockets to pay if they dip beneath the salary cap to make a marquee signing. If Houston operates above the cap and re-signs Beverley, re-signing Smith at that level would take away the team’s capacity to sign anyone it doesn’t already own the rights to for more than the minimum.

Reports have indicated the Rockets have interest in signing draft-and-stash prospects Sergio Llull, Alessandro Gentile and Marko Todorovic this summer, though none are former first-rounders, and thus the Rockets wouldn’t have a rookie exception to use toward signing them. Gentile doens’t have an out in his overseas contract and Llull doesn’t seem to have much motivation to come stateside. Morey shot down the idea that Houston was planning a three-year mid-level deal for Llull. That leaves Todorovic, a 23-year-old center from Montenegro who’s said the Rockets would like to sign him. He averaged 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game for Bilbao Basket of Spain this past season. Those are decent numbers that suggest a minimum-salary offer wouldn’t cut it.

All of this makes it more likely the Rockets would seek to re-sign Terry and Brewer if they don’t open cap space. They’ll have full Bird rights on both, so they won’t face much restriction on their salaries. There’s a decent chance that Brewer, who turned down a $4.905MM player option for next season to facilitate the midseason trade that sent him to the Rockets, would want a similar amount in a new deal with Houston, but regardless, Morey will surely exercise caution with him and with Terry. The Rockets probably don’t want to court the projected $81.6MM tax line, nor will Morey be anxious to commit too much long-term money that gets in the way of a run at free agents in 2016.

K.J. McDaniels also holds intrigue as a potential restricted free agent based on the strong performance in Philadelphia that validated his decision to sign a one-year, non-guaranteed deal for the minimum salary, though he didn’t play much after the Sixers traded him to Houston. Kostas Papanikolaou hardly justified his nearly $5MM salary this season, but his uniquely designed contract that features both an option and non-guaranteed salary at least gives the team a chance to see how he develops over the summer before decision time arrives.

The Rockets face a stiff challenge to improve on this year’s performance, though they haven’t failed to make progress in any of the past three seasons. Improved health, more so than a star addition, is Houston’s likeliest path to another step toward a title next season, but the Rockets will once more loom as an outside threat to acquire any marquee name that becomes available.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Prigioni’s salary is partially guaranteed for $440,000.
2 — Papanikolaou’s salary would be non-guaranteed if the Rockets pick up his option. It would become fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through October 4th.
3 — The cap hold for Beverley would be $947,276 if the Rockets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for McDaniels would be $947,276 if the Rockets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

June 1st, 2015 at 9:58am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Pero Antic ($1,625,000) — $1,562,500 qualifying offer

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (15th overall)
  • 2nd Round (50th overall)
  • 2nd Round (59th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $39,276,545
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $947,276
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $25,528,417
  • Total: $65,752,238

It’s difficult to know just what to make of the Hawks. They were the league’s second-best team in the regular season, but they looked vulnerable against putatively inferior opposition in the first two rounds of the playoffs and were completely outclassed in the conference finals versus the Cavaliers. Some of that postseason trouble had to do with health, as Atlanta’s top three wing players were all either out or hobbled by the time the Cavs completed their sweep. Still, Thabo Sefolosha, who suffered a broken leg in an incident outside a nightclub in early April, was the only member of the Hawks rotation to miss a significant portion of time prior to the conference finals, aside from Shelvin Mack, who went about a month without playing from mid-January to the All-Star break. The Hawks were second only to the Warriors in net rating prior to All-Star weekend, according to NBA.com, and just ninth afterward, behind the Jazz and Pacers, who didn’t make the playoffs. Sefolosha, because of his broken leg and, before that, a calf strain, only played in seven games in the second half of the season. But surely the swingman the Thunder gave up on a year ago isn’t the difference between a team that won at a 65-game pace in the season’s first half and a 50-game pace for the balance of the regular season.

Mar 25, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A 50-win team is still pretty strong, but it’s not on the level of a true championship contender, and certainly not close to the kind of excellence the Hawks showed for much of 2014/15. Coach and acting GM Mike Budenholzer has expressed confidence in the team’s star-less approach, but the Hawks have trained their sights on such luminaries as Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and even LeBron James in the past few years. Atlanta would surely love to have a legitimate No. 1 option just as much as any other team in the league. It just seems as though Budenholzer believes there is a legitimate alternative if, as was the case with Howard, Anthony and James, the Hawks come up short in their star search.

Keeping this year’s team together is a “huge priority,” Budenholzer said last week, and that starts with Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll, Atlanta’s starting forwards and most prominent soon-to-be free agents. The Hawks scored Millsap at a sharp discount two years ago, nabbing him for two years and a total of $19MM. The length of the deal was by the design of Millsap and agent DeAngelo Simmons, as USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt said recently. Millsap’s camp thought another, more lucrative deal would be easier to come by this summer, when he’ll be 30 years old, than in 2017, after the four-year contract the Hawks proposed would have ended, according to Zillgitt. In any case, Millsap appears to have been planning to seek a major payday this summer, though Millsap and Simmons have both made comments recently that suggest the Hawks will have every opportunity to re-sign him.

It’s unclear exactly what that will take, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Millsap commands the max or a salary close to it. The maximum starting salary for a player with Millsap’s nine years of experience would be an estimated $18.96MM, or about $2.3MM more than the $16.625MM the Hawks are limited to giving him through his Early Bird rights. Re-signing him for more would require the Hawks to use cap space they may well otherwise need to keep Carroll. Estimates of Carroll’s value from executives and other sources have shot skyward in recent weeks. One executive who spoke with Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops for a story that ran last month said he thought Carroll would end up making $8-9MM a year. Executives from whom Howard Beck of Bleacher Report heard peg the three-and-D prototype for anywhere from $9-12MM, as Beck wrote last week. Later, Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN.com wrote that league sources had estimates ranging up to a four-year, $50MM deal, which would be worth $12.5MM annually, and those sources wouldn’t rule out a deal even more lucrative than that.

It’s tough to find an accurate read on the value of a player whose stock seems to rise exponentially. Carroll signed his two-year, $5MM contract with Atlanta two years ago without fanfare, having never averaged more than 6.0 points or played more than 16.8 minutes per game in four NBA seasons. The Hawks made him their opening night starter that fall, and he never looked back, incorporating a three-pointer into his game with sudden effectiveness that saw his accuracy from behind the arc go from 28.6% on 70 attempts in 2012/13 to 36.2% on 278 attempts in 2013/14. This year, he poured in 39.5% on 304 tries and crept to 40.3% on 72 playoff attempts.

The Hawks also have Early Bird rights on Carroll, but because his salary this season is much lower than Millsap’s is, those rights don’t go nearly as far. Teams can sign use Early Bird rights to sign free agents to up to 175% of their previous salaries or the league’s average salary, whichever is greater. The 175% figure would be $4.274MM, so Carroll’s Early Bird number will almost certainly be the average salary, which, based on average salary figures over the past few seasons, should be close to $6MM when the league sets it during the July Moratorium. It won’t be enough to keep Carroll, unless he’s willing to take a sizable discount, so there’s a strong chance the Hawks will have to use cap room to retain both Carroll and Millsap.

Atlanta can strip down to a cap figure of $42,452,024 without making a trade. The cap is projected to come in at $67.1MM, so the Hawks would have roughly $25MM worth of flexibility, not enough for even the most conservative estimate offered for Carroll if Millsap’s deal indeed approaches the max.

Still, Carroll is making the Hawks his priority, and the Hawks like their chances to keep both. Millsap would presumably be the team’s first choice if it had to pick, but if Millsap insists on the max while Carroll is willing to come back at around $9MM a year, the Hawks would have to think seriously about what they could do with the money they’d have left over if they re-signed Carroll at a relatively low price and let Millsap walk. Grantland’s Zach Lowe pointed to Atlanta’s longstanding interest in Greg Monroe, who’s eligible for a lower max estimated at about $16MM. Tyson Chandler, Omer Asik, Robin Lopez and, if he opts out, Roy Hibbert would make for affordable choices if the team goes for a big man, and Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris and Jeff Green would make for intriguing possibilities as combo forwards.

The Hawks would have decidedly less attractive options if Millsap came back at market value and Carroll signed elsewhere. The Hawks will almost certainly operate below the cap, so they’ll have the $2.814MM room exception instead of the $5.464MM full mid-level. A max deal with Millsap would leave cap flexibility roughly equivalent to that $5.464MM amount, though it seems the Hawks would earmark part of that for a new deal with backup big man Pero Antic. Atlanta has Early Bird rights with him, too, but it also has the opportunity to make him a restricted free agent and match all offers. There’s a decent chance the Hawks will pass on making him a qualifying offer and end up renouncing his rights to clear the decks for Millsap and Carroll, though Atlanta could circle back to him with the room exception in that scenario. It’s possible that Antic could be had for the minimum, but anyone who’s 6’11” and can stay on the floor for a 60-win team while connecting on a passable rate of three-pointers usually merits at least the value of Antic’s approximately $1.56MM qualifying offer.

Given that the team’s most prominent free agents are in the frontcourt, expect the Hawks to prioritize small forwards and big men in the draft unless a guard the team really likes slips to them at No. 15. Small forwards Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Kelly Oubre, power forwards Bobby Portis, Trey Lyles and Kevon Looney, and center Frank Kaminsky are all candidates for that pick. Our Eddie Scarito has the Hawks going with Lyles in the Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.

It’s tough to make a fully confident prediction about anything the Hawks will do given that the team is reportedly on track to formally change hands sometime between now and July, with the Board of Governors seemingly likely to OK the franchise sale to Tony Ressler and his bidding group. The new owners will probably soon thereafter decide the fate of GM Danny Ferry, who’s on a leave of absence that’s already stretched more than eight months, and whether Budenholzer’s leadership of the front office will continue. New owners tend to bring in new personnel, so there’s a decent chance that neither Ferry nor Budenholzer will be in charge of basketball operations before too long, though finding a replacement in time for the July free agency rush would be ambitious, if not impossible.

Perhaps most clear through all of the uncertainty in Atlanta is that the Hawks have found a formula that works, at least to a degree. Augmenting that mix will ultimately be the team’s goal, but simply bringing back a reasonable facsimile of the 2014/15 team would, given the cap constraints this summer, constitute a successful offseason.

Cap Footnotes

1 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Ayon technically remains on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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