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Offseason Outlook: San Antonio Spurs

May 7th, 2015 at 10:32am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Kawhi Leonard ($7,235,148) — $4,433,683 qualifying offer
  • Cory Joseph ($5,058,153) — $3,034,892 qualifying offer
  • Aron Baynes ($3,946,300) — $2,596,250 qualifying offer

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (26th overall)
  • 2nd Round (55th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $34,159,326
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,185,784
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $54,332,375
  • Total: $89,677,485

It seems like the Spurs have been competing in the Finals or Western Conference Finals every season since Tim Duncan arrived back in 1997/98, but there were three times before this year when Duncan’s Spurs lost in the first round. It’s the second one that’s perhaps most instructive. The 2008/09 Spurs managed to go 54-28 in the regular season with Manu Ginobili around for only 44 of those games and none in the playoffs. They fell in five games to the sixth-seeded Mavs in the first round, and in the summer that followed, San Antonio signed Richard Jefferson to a four-year deal worth nearly $39MM. The Spurs put up their worst record of the Duncan era the next season and grew to regret their rare signing of a significant free agent.

February 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Tim Duncan (21) looks on during the second quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Spurs 110-99. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Now, it appears the Spurs are plotting an even more serious foray into the free agent market, having reportedly made Marc Gasol their top target most of this season and more recently developed apparent mutual interest in LaMarcus Aldridge. The dynamics are somewhat different now than they were in 2009, since Duncan and Ginobili are six years older and that much closer to the end. Ginobili suggested this week that he’s contemplating retirement more seriously than ever, and that his decision will hinge on Duncan’s. Both are set for free agency this summer, ostensibly making it that much easier for them to say goodbye to the NBA. Still, there were questions even in 2009 about how much longer either of them would last, or at least remain productive, and both were integral parts of San Antonio’s fifth championship in 2014, when Jefferson was already long gone.

Duncan and Ginobili — and Tony Parker, who turns 33 this month — won’t be around forever, but it wasn’t a free agent signing that took the Spurs from two first-round ousters in three years back onto the champion’s podium. It’s chiefly the shrewd acquisition of the draft rights to Kawhi Leonard in exchange for valued role player George Hill that put the Spurs back in title contention, though no one would have known it at the time of the trade in 2011.

A run at free agency this year has been in the works awhile. Spurs coach/president Gregg Popovich more or less acknowledged that this week in his end-of-season press conference, saying that he, GM R.C. Buford and company put this group together with the idea that this summer would represent an opportunity to make key decisions. San Antonio would be entering the offseason with even more uncertainty if Parker hadn’t signed a deal last summer to extend his contract, which was to have expired this year. He’s one of the few Spurs virtually guaranteed to return, and Leonard is, too, even though he’s about to enter restricted free agency. That Leonard didn’t sign an extension of his own in the fall has as much to do with the utility of keeping his cap hold small as anything else, and he reportedly has no plans to seek offer sheets. Even if he did, San Antonio would be expected to match, and as it is, it appears Leonard is destined to continue growing into the centerpiece of the Spurs.

The challenge for Popovich and Buford is in how to surround the Defensive Player of the Year with the talent necessary to keep the Spurs in the title hunt for next season and for years to come. It’ll require some cap gymnastics this summer. If Duncan and Ginobili retire, the Spurs could renounce their rights as well as the rights to every other free agent except Leonard, release Reggie Williams and his non-guaranteed contract, and take a draft-and-stash prospect at No. 26 and get him to agree in writing not to sign in 2015/16. That would leave the Spurs with $44,545,032 against the cap, a total that consists of the team’s guaranteed salary commitments, Leonard’s cap hold, and six additional cap holds equal to the rookie minimum salary that account for open roster spots. The cap is projected to come in at $67.1MM, so that would leave $22,554,968, enough to sign just about any free agent to a max deal, according to our max-salary approximations. There would be roughly $3.5MM worth of breathing room between the max for Aldridge and Gasol, who fall in the 30% max tier, and the hilt of San Antonio’s capacity to clear cap room without a trade.

Of course, the Spurs might like to draft someone who can contribute immediately, or at least be a part of the roster next season, and Duncan and Ginobili might want to come back at more than the minimum salary. Those hypotheticals make the summer ahead especially unpredictable. It’s quite conceivable that Duncan and Ginobili have already signaled to the Spurs what they’d like to receive on their next deals if they were to play again. The cheap three-year, $25MM contract that Dirk Nowitzki signed with the Mavs last summer perhaps sets the bar for Duncan, though it’s tougher to find an analogy for Ginobili. A deal with a starting salary in the range of the full $5.464MM mid-level exception would allow the Argentinian legend a concession to the only NBA franchise he’s known without forcing him to play for a pittance, though that’s only my speculation. Reasonable deals for Duncan and Ginobili such as those would approach a combined total of $14MM for next season. That would knock the Spurs out of the hunt for any sort of marquee free agent unless they can find trade partners willing to take on some combination of Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson without giving up salary in return.

None of this accounts for Danny Green, either. He was playing in the D-League when the Spurs signed him in March of 2011, and little more than four years later he’s a sought-after “three-and-D” type whom at least one executive wouldn’t mind paying $6MM a year, as Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops reported. It wouldn’t be altogether shocking for the soon-to-be 28-year-old who’s shot 42.3% over his four full seasons as a Spur to command more than that. No one would pass up a star for him, but he’s been an indelible part of the fabric as a starter on four straight title-contending rosters.

Marco Belinelli has played nearly as many minutes as Green over the past four regular seasons, and he’s another sharpshooting weapon who can spread the floor in San Antonio’s intricate offense. His two finest defensive seasons have come in a Spurs uniform, as Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus data shows, though he wasn’t as sharp on either end of the court this year as he was in 2013/14, and he saw his fewest minutes per game since 2009/10. He’ll turn 30 next March, and unless he, too, wants to make a sacrifice and perhaps even take the minimum to stay with the Spurs, an end to his tenure in San Antonio seems a decent bet.

Perhaps a more difficult choice revolves around Cory Joseph. Other teams appear to be circling the waters for the point guard who capably handled the primary backup duties early this season while Mills recovered from shoulder surgery. The Spurs have the power to match competing bids for Joseph, but only if they tender a qualifying offer of more than $3MM. That would be a burdensome price to pay for a third-stringer if he were to simply accept that qualifying offer. Making Joseph a restricted free agent and retaining his rights would make more sense if the team trades Mills, though Mills’ salary for next season isn’t much more than the value of Joseph’s qualifying offer. So, there’s little sense in trading Mills to clear cap room if the Spurs intend to make Joseph a restricted free agent.

A max deal is waiting for Leonard, but Duncan and Ginobili hold the keys to the San Antonio summer, a status they’ve earned in spades. Retire, and the Spurs will have the capacity to sign a top free agent target without trading anyone. Come back, and other key Spurs will have to go if a major name is to join the team. San Antonio’s tradition of winning has made the club attractive to some of the best free agents in this year’s class. Still, given the Jefferson fiasco, it’s worth wondering if the Spurs would prefer instead to trade for the next Leonard, a young talent they could mold to their system from the start, rather than risk disrupting their culture by adding a star who would demand a prominent place in the team’s hierarchy. Finding gems like Leonard is by no means easy, and few teams would have even a moment’s hesitation if someone like Aldridge or Gasol came calling. But the Spurs wouldn’t be who they are if they hadn’t outsmarted the competition and made unconventional choices. Another surprise for the rest of the league may soon be on its way from Alamo country.

Cap Footnotes

1 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players technically remain on the books.
2 — The Spurs drafted Jean-Charles 28th overall in 2013 but have yet to sign him. San Antonio can keep his draft rights but remove his cap hold from its books if he and the team produce a written agreement that he won’t sign during the 2015/16 season.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

May 5th, 2015 at 2:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (23rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $23,073,077
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $5,808,345
  • Options: $9,920,465
  • Cap Holds: $48,548,397
  • Total: $87,350,284

Portland’s offseason hinges on one name: LaMarcus Aldridge. It’ll be up to him to decide whether he continues to wear a Trail Blazers uniform or not, and there will surely be a maximum-salary offer from the Blazers waiting there for the Arn Tellem client, with his choice of contract length and option clauses. Aldridge appears, by many accounts, to be reconsidering the pledge he made last summer to re-sign with the team in the offseason ahead, one that he reiterated this past fall as the season began.

Jan 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) controls the ball against the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not the first time that the 29-year-old, who turns 30 in July, has wavered on a decision. It seemed as recently as two years ago that his exit from Portland was inevitable as he appeared eager to leave a rebuilding situation behind, but Portland’s quick turnaround in 2013/14 had him talking extension midway through the season. Aldridge put an end to extension talk when he said last summer that he would re-sign when his contract was up in 2015, though that was merely a prudent financial move on his part, as collective bargaining rules greatly disincentivize veteran extensions.

It’s unclear what’s triggered Aldridge’s renewed interest in leaving the Blazers. Portland stumbled down the stretch and fell quietly in the first round of the playoffs, but injuries played an outsized role in that, and Aldridge’s subpar 33.0% shooting in the Grizzlies series contributed to the team’s demise, too. Of course, Aldridge was battling an injury of his own, a torn ligament in his left thumb that was supposed to knock him out for six to eight weeks this season. Instead, he put off surgery and played through it, a decision that seemed only to further cement his status as a Blazers legend before doubts about his future with the team crept in.

Regardless, the Blazers would clearly prefer to keep Aldridge if they can, but if that proves impossible, they won’t be left without a way to contend next season, as was the case when LeBron James and Dwight Howard left their respective teams in recent years. The departure of Aldridge would leave Portland with a chance to open some $40MM in room against a projected $67.1MM cap, about enough to sign two 30% max free agents. More importantly, Damian Lillard‘s presence looms as reason for max-level players to entertain the idea of playing in Portland, as does GM Neil Olshey‘s track record of building winners with the Clippers and Blazers. Portland, in a vacuum, wouldn’t necessarily be an attractive destination to marquee free agents, but with a budding superstar and a canny executive at the helm, the Blazers can put forth a convincing case to stars that they can win.

Marc Stein of ESPN.com raised an intriguing possibility last week when he suggested that the Cavs could enter the picture for Aldridge as a sign-and-trade destination if Kevin Love were to pull a reversal of his own and change his plan to opt in. Love is a California native and went to UCLA, but he first burst onto the national basketball scene while attending high school in suburban Portland. The Blazers would offer him the chance to return to a familiar place and a more expansive role next to Lillard than he’s had with both James and Kyrie Irving in Cleveland. A sign-and-trade would be tricky, since teams over the tax apron can’t take on players via sign-and-trade and Cleveland is in line to zoom well into tax territory, but on the off chance Love does opt out, the Blazers could just sign him outright.

Greg Monroe, to whom the Blazers were linked last summer, looms as a much more obtainable possibility, and so would Roy Hibbert, if he opts out, as Hibbert was reportedly ready to sign an offer sheet with the Blazers in 2012 before the Pacers made it clear they’d match. Of course, Hibbert hasn’t performed like a star lately and probably wouldn’t merit the max, and there are plenty of soon-to-be free agent big men whom Portland might find more valuable, like DeAndre Jordan, Paul Millsap, Brook Lopez and Tristan Thompson. None aside from Love and Marc Gasol are Aldridge’s equal among interior players in this year’s free agent class, but Gasol seems committed to Memphis.

Of course, Aldridge isn’t the only significant soon-to-be free agent in Portland. The value of Wesley Matthews has never been more apparent than over the last two months since the theretofore remarkably durable shooting guard tore his left Achilles tendon. The fortunes of just about every Blazers free agent seem intrinsically linked to Aldridge, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Portland pushes hard to bring back Matthews regardless of what happens with the power forward. It’s uncertain if the Knicks have abandoned their reported interest in the wake of the injury, which threatens to keep him from starting next season on time, and surely other teams will be wary of his recovery. Matthews turns 29 in October, but the injury is far from a death knell for his long-term productivity. If the Blazers are willing to stomach a market value deal given the possibility of a lengthy recovery and a slow adjustment to playing again, they can probably bring back one of their anchors, as he’s expressed a preference to remain in Portland.

The Blazers acquired Arron Afflalo at the deadline to serve as a sixth man behind Matthews, but the former Nuggets shooting guard wound up starting before missing time with an injury of his own to his shoulder. That injury cost Afflalo time in the postseason and was conceivably at the root of his woeful performance, but he nonetheless reportedly plans to opt out. He stands as an in-house alternative to Matthews, but the emergence of C.J. McCollum, who’s on a rookie deal much cheaper than what Afflalo will surely command, casts doubt on Portland’s need to hang on to the Sam Goldfeder client. Still, if all of the team’s other key free agents come back at salaries commensurate to what they’re making now, it would be difficult for the Blazers to afford a replacement who can produce the way Afflalo does.

Robin Lopez appeared to be the missing piece last season, when the Blazers shot from 33-49 to 54-28 and a first-round playoff series victory. The 27-year-old’s production slipped this season, though part of that had to do with a dip in playing time as the Blazers sought to make use of an upgraded bench. His game might not be quite as complementary to a big man who isn’t Aldridge, so if Aldridge leaves this summer, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Blazers look elsewhere for a starting center. Lopez would be a natural draw for brother Brook Lopez, but Brook appears likely to opt out and re-sign with the Nets, and the twins probably wouldn’t be as effective an on-court pairing as they were at Stanford.

Complicating the frontcourt for the Blazers is Meyers Leonard‘s candidacy for a rookie scale extension this summer. The former 11th overall pick rebuilt his game and added a three-point shot after falling out of the rotation last season, and he was strong on the boards in the playoffs, averaging 11.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. He switched agents, hiring the Creative Artists Agency and Aaron Mintz, a hint that he intends to push for a deal this summer.

Of course, Leonard isn’t the most prominent Blazer up for a rookie scale extension. That distinction belongs to Lillard, who’s already made it clear that he has no plans to settle for less than a full five-year max deal. Portland probably won’t hesitate to give it to him and jump at the chance to secure the two-time All-Star for the long term. Regardless of whether the extension would prompt Aldridge to chafe against the notion that he’s not the team’s top priority, a feeling he sensed earlier in his career, the Blazers can’t afford to dally with Lillard. Quickly securing the elite point guard in the first few days of July would allow marquee free agents to bank on the chance that they’d have a star running mate for years to come if they were to sign with Portland. Aldridge might not want to be a team’s No. 2 priority, but surely other talented free agents would.

There’s little doubt that Aldridge holds all the cards this summer in Portland, but unlike some other teams, the Blazers don’t have all their chips in front of a single superstar. The preferable outcome involves the power forward returning, but the Blazers have the wherewithal to quickly jump back into contention this coming season or in 2015/16 if he bolts.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Kaman’s salary is partially guaranteed for $1,000,000.
2 — The cap hold for Afflalo if he opts out would be $11,625,000
3 — The cap hold for Blake if he opts out would be $2,492,400
4 — The cap hold for Aldridge will be the lesser of $24,384,000 and the NBA’s maximum salary for a veteran of nine seasons. It will likely be the latter, so an estimate is used above.
5 — This presumes the estimated average salary for 2015/16 won’t be equal to or greater than Lopez’s $6,124,729 salary from this season. If it is, Lopez’s cap hold would instead be $11,636,985.
6 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why Watson technically remains on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Bucks

May 4th, 2015 at 11:02am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 17 pick ($1,444,200)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (17th overall)
  • 2nd Round (46th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $43,885,920
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $947,276
  • Options: $4,250,000
  • Cap Holds: $4,169,203
  • Total: $53,252,399

The league-worst 15-67 season of 2013/14 makes this year’s .500 mark look like a revelation, but the bounceback season the Bucks had this year isn’t quite as impressive in the context of the 38-44 record the team compiled just two years ago. The team is largely swimming in the same waters it has since 2008/09. That was the first of a six-season stretch in which Milwaukee has finished within 10 games above or below .500 every year except last season’s low point. Still, the partnership of Wesley Edens, Marc Lasry, Jamie Dinan atop Milwaukee’s ownership structure appears committed to breaking the franchise out of mediocrity, so there’s reason for optimism.

"MarThe team enters the offseason with only one player certain to hit free agency. The secret’s out about Khris Middleton, who led the Bucks in scoring during their six-game first-round loss to the Bulls. The Bucks reportedly insisted on Middleton’s inclusion in the 2013 Brandon Jennings/Brandon Knight swap, and he’s proven significantly more than a throw-in the past two seasons in Milwaukee. He’s canned 41.0% of his three-pointers over that span, and he averaged 13.4 points in 30.1 minutes per game this season. ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus metric rates him as the league’s top shooting guard in that category, but he primarily played power forward this season, as Basketball-Reference shows. Basketball-Reference lists him with a rather pedestrian 0.5 Defensive Box Plus/Minus but 22nd among all players who saw at least 1,000 minutes this season in defensive win shares.

The 23-year-old’s value, never mind his position, is hard to pinpoint, and the power the Bucks have to match all offers for him makes next year’s salary even more unpredictable. Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops and Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times have each heard from a group of multiple executives who came up with two different consensuses. Scotto cited estimates of around $10MM, while Woelfel heard expectations of $8MM salaries.

The Bucks are likely to match offers from opposing teams for the former 39th overall pick, but it seems there’s just enough dichotomy in the way front offices view him that it’s conceivable that a team comes in with an offer for more than what Milwaukee could stomach. The Mavs set the bar with their near-max offer sheet to Chandler Parsons last summer, one that included an opt-out after two years and a 15% trade kicker. Middleton wasn’t as productive this season as Parsons was last year, at least not offensively, but the Bucks have to gird themselves for the possibility of a bloated offer. It no doubt helps Milwaukee that Middleton’s agent, Mike Lindeman, works for Excel Sports Management, the company founded by Jeff Schwartz, who represents coach Jason Kidd. The coach has plenty of say in personnel decisions, and Middleton said recently that he’d like to re-sign in spite of some earlier doubts about the team’s decision to trade away Knight at the deadline this year. Either way, Middleton made clear his distaste for the drawn-out process that Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe went through last summer, so it seems we’ll know by the end of July where Middleton will play and what he’ll be making.

Milwaukee will know by a month before then whether Jared Dudley will opt in, though it seemed obvious that Dudley would opt in when the Bucks traded for him last summer, a deal in which Milwaukee received a first-round pick largely for taking on Dudley’s contract. The pact that proved troublesome for the Clippers, who were pressed against their hard cap, instead proved a rather fair arrangement for Milwaukee. His raw numbers didn’t change much, but back at full health this season, the 29-year-old Dudley rebounded from career lows in PER, win shares and Box Plus Minus, according to Basketball-Reference. Kidd, too, will apparently play a major part in his free agency this summer, as Dudley said he’s the primary reason he’s willing to take a discount on a long-term deal to stay in Milwaukee. He’d have to opt out for that to happen this year, and it’s unclear just how he and agent Mark Bartelstein define discount, but it appears a would-be burden will turn into a bargain.

Dudley wouldn’t be alone among Bucks on team-friendly deals. The Bucks have six players whose rookie scale contracts carry through next season, and they’re in line to draft a seventh in June. It’s part of the financial flexibility the Bucks garnered when they gave up Knight, a move for the long-term that stands apart from the sort of trade that former owner Herb Kohl might have green-lighted to give this year’s team a better chance at winning a playoff series or two. Knight will probably end up with a salary next season that’s at or near twice what Michael Carter-Williams, Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis, the three players the Bucks acquired in return, will make in 2015/16. None of them can produce like Knight, at least not yet, but the Bucks instead have a Rookie of the Year in Carter-Williams, the starting center from last year’s 48-win Suns team in Plumlee, and an attractive mid-first-round draft product in Ennis, all at a cheaper total cost.

The Bucks have a chance at serious cap room this summer as a result. Milwaukee will have about $52.3MM committed against a projected $67.1MM salary cap if Dudley opts in, they hold off on officially signing Middleton, and they keep their first-round pick. That means the worst-case scenario involves them having nearly enough cap flexibility to make a maximum-salary bid on a free agent eligible for the 25% max, and it wouldn’t be difficult for the Bucks to find a taker for that first-rounder or another contract if they want to get to the full 25% max. They could even get in the market for Knight, though that would make little sense unless they envision a long-term future with a pairing of Carter-Williams and Knight in the backcourt. Other options include Tristan Thompson and Enes Kanter, while attractive unrestricted alternatives who’d come at less than the 30% or 35% max, like Omer Asik, Robin Lopez, would probably be easier to land. Thompson, Kanter, Asik and Lopez would help the team fill the hole in the middle left from the Larry Sanders debacle, though the Bucks may feel that John Henson, who averaged 11.3 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes in the playoffs, deserves a long look as a starter in the final year of his rookie scale deal.

The team’s cap flexibility, extra first-rounder and tons of young talent also position it well to trade for a star. The Bucks could offer a team more NBA-ready talent than the Sixers, who chiefly have draft assets to spend, and the presence of two potential budding stars in Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo could make Milwaukee a more attractive trade destination than the Celtics to a marquee trade candidate who has leverage. Still, true stars aren’t often available, so the Bucks would have to be patient with such an approach, and with Parker as the centerpiece, it’s quite possible that Milwaukee can build a contender from within.

Parker doesn’t have the star potential of Andrew Wiggins, the player taken just before him, or even Joel Embiid, the player whom the Sixers drafted immediately after. Parker is also coming off a torn ACL, and Antetokounmpo is still a work in progress. Yet with both on rookie scale contracts for at least two more seasons, the Bucks have an opportunity to chase more expensive talent either now or in the summer of 2016 as part of their quest to become the true title contenders they haven’t really been since the 1980s. The future of the Bucks in Milwaukee is somewhat uncertain as talks about public funding for a new arena proceed against the urgency of an NBA-imposed timetable that demands progress. But the future of the Bucks on the court is such that the team can continue to focus squarely on a promising tomorrow without the need for bold moves this summer.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Bucks waived Sanders in February and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next seven seasons.
2 — The cap hold for Dudley would be $8,075,000 if he opts out.
3 — Middleton’s cap hold would be $947,276 if the Bucks decline to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks

May 3rd, 2015 at 1:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (21st overall)
  • 2nd Round (52nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $28,064,039
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $845,059
  • Options: $13,770,915
  • Cap Holds: $44,655,711
  • Total: $87,335,724

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban undoubtedly didn’t start the season with the thought that it would end with a meek 4-1 series loss to archrival Houston in the first round of the playoffs. Such an ending had seemingly become much less likely when the Mavs traded for Rajon Rondo in December. Instead, Rondo didn’t play like the top-tier point guard he used to be, clashed with coach Rick Carlisle, and came to a mutual agreement with the team to part ways midway through that Rockets series. The most significant move Dallas made this past season could scarcely have turned out more poorly. It wasn’t the true worst-case scenario, since the Mavs made the playoffs and avoided having to forfeit their would-be lottery pick per the terms of the Rondo trade, but times have changed from when it appeared that Cuban would do whatever was necessary to keep the starting lineup together for next season.

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The failure of Rondo to play up to expectations leaves the Mavs at square one in their quest for the high-performing point guard that so many other NBA teams have nowadays. Backup Devin Harris was an All-Star in 2009 and is signed through 2017/18, but his time as an elite point guard was fleeting, and it would be surprising to see the Mavs settle on him as the starter. The free agent market is thin for point guards this summer, with Goran Dragic and Reggie Jackson strong bets to return to the Heat and Pistons, respectively. The Suns will surely be loath to let Brandon Knight go after giving up their protected first-rounder from the Lakers in the trade to acquire him, so it would take a bloated offer sheet for Phoenix to even consider not matching.

Dallas could travel the same route it took with Chandler Parsons last summer and give Knight a deal close to the maximum salary with a player option after year two, one that the Rockets found too player-friendly to match. Paying at or near max money to two players who aren’t truly worthy of those salaries comes with its consequences, though Knight, like Parsons last year, is only eligible for the 25% max, not the 30% or 35% the NBA reserves for longer-tenured veterans. The catapulting salary cap would render such a deal much less burdensome in years two and three, so it’s a strategy to consider. The Mavs also have a chance to evoke Parsons memories if they chase Patrick Beverley, which would entail a bid for a Rockets restricted free agent a second year in a row. There’s mutual interest between Houston and Beverley in a new deal, though again, the Mavs could shoehorn their way into consideration with an offer to overpay him.

Still, there are legitimate questions about whether Beverley or Knight can play the point at an elite level. The trade market might be more fruitful, with Ty Lawson the most obvious candidate. Deron Williams could probably be had, but finding the salaries to match wouldn’t be easy, and Nets coach Lionel Hollins put it bluntly this weekend when he said that Williams isn’t a franchise player anymore. Maybe the Bulls would entertain a Derrick Rose deal if they can’t get past a weakened Cavs team in the playoffs, but his salary and questions about his status as a franchise player are complicating factors, too.

The frontcourt is a different story, and there appears to be a level of mutual interest between the Mavs and both LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan. The most natural fit would be Jordan, who would give the Mavs a chance to upgrade from soon-to-be free agent Tyson Chandler with a younger, more athletic version of Chandler. Aldridge is generally the more well-regarded player, but he plays the same position as franchise icon Dirk Nowitzki, who’s still perhaps the team’s best player. It would be difficult for the Mavs to get by defensively with either Aldridge or Nowitzki at center or small forward, so it’s tough to envision them playing side-by-side for significant stretches. The Mavs, with only about $28MM in guaranteed salary against a projected $67.1MM cap, technically have the wherewithal to sign both, but Raymond Felton is almost certain to opt in for more than $3.95MM, and if Monta Ellis opts in to $8.72MM, the idea of signing two max-level free agents is essentially kaput barring salary-clearing trades. Regardless, signing both Aldridge and Jordan would be overloading the frontcourt at the expense of the guard positions, and it would more than likely require the team to renounce its rights to Ellis if he does opt out.

An Ellis opt-out would present the Mavs with another conundrum. He led the team in scoring but slumped in the second half and shot an atrocious 16.9% from three-point range in regular season games after the All-Star break. He canned 11 of 30 three-point attempts in the playoffs, but outside shooting has never been his calling card. That’s an inauspicious trait for a shooting guard who’ll turn 30 when next season begins, so a long-term deal at market value would be troublesome for the Mavs. Still, Ellis has probably played his way into making eight-figure salaries again after two years of pulling in an average of a little more than $8MM with the Mavs. Even a starting salary of $14.63MM, the most Dallas could give him through his Early Bird rights, wouldn’t impinge upon the Mavs, at least in a vacuum, as long as he agrees to a short-term arrangement. Still, if the team signs a scorer at another position, perhaps Dallas would look harder at lower-cost alternatives at shooting guard, like Arron Afflalo, Lou Williams and Wesley Matthews.

Cuban acknowledged that he erred when he let Chandler go after one season in 2011, but a repeat wouldn’t necessarily be a mistake this time around. The 32-year-old was healthy this year, playing in 75 games, and he delivered the third-best rebounding season of his career while finishing 10th in Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus Minus among centers who played at least 1,000 minutes. Still, Jordan was fifth in that metric and the league’s leading rebounder, so the chance to upgrade would be difficult for the Mavs to pass up. Chandler probably wouldn’t accept a backup role or the salary that would come with it if Jordan came to take his place. Jordan probably represents the Mavs’ best shot at landing a defensive anchor who’s clearly superior to Chandler, so if the Clippers re-sign their center, the wisdom of re-signing Chandler becomes a matter of his willingness to sign a short-term deal, just as with Ellis.

Felton, whom the Mavs took on in order to reacquire Chandler last summer, and Harris were the only two Mavs reserves who weren’t making the minimum salary at the end of the season. That’ll have to change if the Mavs want to retain the best of their bench, particularly Al-Farouq Aminu, who’s opting out. He and the Mavs have mutual interest in a new deal, but the Celtics intend to wedge their way into the discussion, and other opposing teams will probably follow for the versatile forward who proved an eminently valuable defender. The Mavs only have his Non-Bird rights, and if they open cap space, they’d either have to use a chunk of that or the $2.814MM room exception to re-sign Aminu, the latter of which would probably require the Raymond Brothers client to take a discount from market value.

The same could be said for Amar’e Stoudemire, who still averaged double-digit scoring even in just 16.5 minutes per game down the stretch for Dallas. J.J. Barea has hinted that it won’t be as difficult for the Mavs to re-sign him this time around as when he bolted for a four-year, $18MM deal in 2011, so perhaps Dallas could retain him using Non-Bird rights for a 20% raise on the minimum salary. Charlie Villanueva was a long shot to make this year’s team on a non-guaranteed minimum-salary deal, but he did so and averaged 6.3 PPG in 10.6 MPG, probably enough to warrant a guaranteed minimum salary arrangement this time around, and he’s spoken of a desire to keep working with Carlisle.

The Mavs still haven’t landed the marquee free agent they’ve hoped for ever since breaking up their 2011 championship team, the Parsons signing notwithstanding, and they still haven’t won a playoff series since walking off the floor with the NBA title. Dallas nonetheless has the makings of an attractive destination, with no state income tax, relatively mild winter weather and, most importantly, an existing roster that won 50 games this past season. The ultimate decisions rest with the elite free agents, and not the Mavs, so if they overlook Dallas again, there will be more pressure than ever on Cuban and GM Donnie Nelson to make creative moves to maintain a winning team around the aging Nowitzki.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Mavs waived Mekel in October and used the stretch provision to spread his guaranteed salary for 2015/16 over a three-year period. The number represented above is the amount owed to Mekel in 2015/16 following the application of the provision.
2 — Powell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through opening night.
3 — The cap hold for Ellis would be $11,336,000 if he opts out.
4 — The cap hold for Felton would be $7,505,595 if he opts out.
5 — The cap hold for Aminu would be $947,276 if he opts out.
6 — The cap hold for James would be $947,276 if the Mavericks decline to make a qualifying offer.
7 — The cap hold for Chandler will be the lesser of $22,270,331 and the NBA’s maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more seasons.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Raptors

April 30th, 2015 at 1:58pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

      • Amir Johnson ($10,500,000)
      • Landry Fields ($9,375,000)
      • Chuck Hayes ($8,938,125)
      • Lou Williams ($8,175,000)
      • Tyler Hansbrough ($4,324,106)
      • (Nando De Colo $1,901,900)1
      • No. 20 pick ($1,257,800)
      • Greg Stiemsma ($947,276)
      • (Mickael Pietrus $947,276)1

Draft Picks

      • 1st Round (20th overall)

Cap Outlook

      • Guaranteed Salary: $49,049,074
      • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
      • Options: $0
      • Cap Holds: $46,366,483
      • Total: $95,415,557

The charmed run had to come to an end at some point. Toronto had been on a wild ride that began with the Rudy Gay trade in December 2013, one that transformed a lottery-bound team on the verge of a teardown into the third seed in the Eastern Conference. A disappointing seven-game playoff loss aside, the team picked up where it left off and sprinted to a 24-7 start, much of it without an injured DeMar DeRozan. The slide began shortly before DeRozan returned, and he and the rest of the Raptors stumbled to a 25-26 finish and a profoundly disappointing first-round sweep at the hands of the Wizards in the first round of the playoffs. All of it has raised uncertainty about whether coach Dwane Casey, just a year into a new three-year deal, will return next season. It would make little sense for the Raptors to cut ties with the coach at this point, as multiple Raptors beat writers have opined, but the team’s defensive shortcomings speak ill of the coach who’s done his best work on that end of the court.

GM Masai Ujiri hasn’t made any promises about Casey yet, but he said this week that he’ll avoid knee-jerk reactions to the way the team played after its strong start. That means Ujiri probably won’t revert to the drastic rebuilding plans that he was considering before the team blossomed after the Gay trade last year. The All-Star backcourt of DeRozan and Kyle Lowry thus figures to remain intact, barring the unforeseen opportunity to trade one or both of them for players of greater value. Marc Stein of ESPN.com hears that those two and Jonas Valanciunas are the only Raptors who should feel confident in their staying power, though that doesn’t necessarily signal an overhaul. Few others on the roster would pass for certifiable core pieces, and the Raptors knew Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams was set for free agency this summer when they made what appears to have been a sweetheart deal with Atlanta to acquire him last June.

Perhaps the most startling name left out of Stein’s trio is Terrence Ross, the former No. 8 overall pick who regressed this past season. His points per game, three-point percentage, PER and Basketball-Reference Defensive Box Plus/Minus numbers were all down. Still, Ujiri defended Ross this week in the same breath in which he said there would be no knee-jerk reactions, as Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun relays. The central question at play may well center on whether the team will seek to sign Ross to a rookie scale extension this summer rather than on whether the team will look to trade him. Sending him away this offseason would be selling low on a top-10 pick from just three years ago. The Raptors reportedly listened to offers for Ross before the trade deadline and considered trading him, though it didn’t appear as though they aggressively sought any deal involving him. Ujiri said shortly before the deadline that it was too early to give up on the swingman and that he’d be “shocked” if he traded him. That sentiment might not be as strong as it used to be, but it would appear Ross will stick on the roster while the October 31st deadline to reach a rookie scale extension draws nearer during the offseason.

A troubling consequence of Ross’ poor play this past season is that it would have been a lot easier for the team to draw a hard line in negotiations with Williams if Ross had continued to improve instead. The Raptors are nonetheless replete with perimeter players who are more than capable, from Lowry and DeRozan to Greivis Vasquez, each of whom plays at least one of the two guard positions that Williams is suited for. Toronto, even without the comfort of knowing that Ross is on the right path, has no shortage of guards or offensive threats, and Williams probably wouldn’t help the team shore up its defense. It’s difficult even in light of his award to envision the Raptors bringing back the Leon Rose client unless he agrees to a discount. The Raptors simply have little call for another highly paid player in the backcourt. Toronto should be expected to look into signing Toronto native Cory Joseph, according to Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun, but he won’t command the sort of double-digit salary Williams presumably will.

It will be nonetheless tricky to move on from Williams, since Rose also represents Valanciunas, who’s up for a rookie scale extension in the offseason. It’s quite conceivable the Raptors will make an offer that’s fair but not too competitive to retain Williams or agree to participate in a sign-and-trade if that would be necessary for Williams to go to another team of his choice. Ultimately, the team would be better off spending the money they might commit to Williams to instead address power forward, where Amir Johnson is about to become a free agent and neither he nor Patrick Patterson has distinguished himself as a bona fide starter. It was no surprise to see the team chase David West before the trade deadline, and should he decline his $12.6MM player option for next season, Toronto would probably go after him again, though that’s just my speculation. The Raptors would be able to afford a deal that gives West a salary commensurate with the value of that option, since they have only about $49MM in guaranteed salary out to nine players against a projected $67.1MM cap. He’d fit the mold of the strong defender the team lacks, though he turns 35 this summer and his offensive production has declined.

Stars like Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Monroe are probably out of reach, but that might not be the case for the understated Paul Millsap. Ujiri has pledged a pursuit of Canadians, so Toronto native Tristan Thompson makes sense, though the Cavs can match any offers for him as a restricted free agent and the questions surrounding Love seemingly make it more likely Cleveland keeps Thompson around. DeMarre Carroll looms as an intriguing option if Ujiri is on board with a combo forward type.

The team appears set going into next season at its other interior position, as Ujiri was effusive in his support for Valanciunas as his extension eligibility looms. The former No. 5 overall pick hasn’t played up to his draft position yet, though he turns only 23 next week. Starting centers with potential get paid handsomely in the NBA, though Ujiri might still feel the burn from the four-year, $44MM deal he signed with JaVale McGee when the GM was with Denver. That contract came not long after Ujiri and the Nuggets signed Nene to a five-year, $65MM deal and traded him just a few months later to the Wizards in a deal that netted McGee, so the GM has shown a willingness to quickly pivot from such long-term arrangements. Committing to Valanciunas will nonetheless have consequences, especially if Rose asks for salaries like McGee’s or an extension similar to the incentive-laden four-year, $48MM extension the Magic gave Nikola Vucevic this past fall. Valanciunas hasn’t produced to the level that Vucevic had prior to his deal, so the Raptors would probably hold the line against $12MM salaries and seek numbers around $10MM, though that’s just my estimation.

It all adds up to a healthy stack of decisions facing Ujiri, the former Executive of the Year, who’ll have to take the Raptors farther than he took the Nuggets to earn consideration for the honor again. The way this season ended proved Toronto isn’t a contender to win the Eastern Conference, much less the title, but though the team doesn’t seem close to acquiring the star usually required to rise to that level, there are apparent paths to improvement. It’s up to Ujiri to take them.

Cap Footnotes

1 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players listed in parentheses technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Celtics

April 28th, 2015 at 1:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Gigi Datome ($2,275,000) — $2,187,500 qualifying offer
  • Jae Crowder ($1,181,348) — $1,181,348 qualifying offer1

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (16th overall)
  • 1st Round (28th overall)
  • 2nd Round (33rd overall)
  • 2nd Round (45th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $40,406,846
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,894,552
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $47,833,785
  • Total: $90,135,183

The Celtics have made 11 trades since July, and while none of them brought the superstar that president of basketball operations Danny Ainge has openly pined for, all of those moves resulted in a 15-win improvement from last season to this one. Boston has as many as seven extra first-round draft picks coming its way, more trade exceptions than any other team in the league, and a roster that finished just two games below .500. The difficult calculus facing Ainge now is proving that he can do again what he did in 2007 and convert building blocks into a star-studded contender.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Phoenix SunsIt won’t be as easy this time, since the 2007 Celtics already had a resident star in Paul Pierce. Ainge dealt away the last remaining link to the 2007/08 champions when he traded Rajon Rondo in December, but since the swap, Rondo has hardly looked like the star he used to be, and the Celtics have fairly attractive assets to show for it. Jae Crowder, the only player the Celtics have left from the deal, is soon to hit free agency, too, but the Celtics have control in a way they wouldn’t have had with Rondo, since Crowder’s eligible for restricted free agency. The Rondo deal also gave the Celtics one of the many extra first-rounders they’re owed and allowed them to create a massive trade exception that they could use to take in a player making as much as $13MM without giving up any salary in return, as I examined.

It’s that final asset that will require some real creativity and hard decisions from Ainge. The trade exception expires on the one-year anniversary of the Rondo trade in December, so the Celtics can’t sit on it for long. They won’t even have until December if they want to use any cap space this summer. Trade exceptions go away when teams clear cap room, and the Celtics have a chance to open roughly $25.5MM worth, enough for a maximum-salary free agent, or two or three second-tier signings. They could also use cap room to take in players via trade without sending anyone out, so it’s not as if relinquishing the exceptions would leave the Celtics hamstrung. Still, teams can use trade exceptions to help create new trade exceptions, in essence extending their life, as Ainge did when he used multiple trade exceptions to facilitate the Rondo deal and produce the new, massive trade exception that came out of it.

The decision won’t be made in a vacuum, as more than a dozen legacy cap holds, as listed above and explained here, help ensure the Celtics wouldn’t have to open cap room until they know they can sign the free agent targets they want. Some of the players that Boston would like to sign wouldn’t require the use of cap space, since they’re already on the roster. Ainge has sent clear signals that he’d like to re-sign Crowder, who’s expressed gratitude for the expanded role that coach Brad Stevens has given him. Ainge would surely put Crowder on the back burner if a star became available, but given the swingman’s relatively tiny cap hold of less than $1.2MM, he wouldn’t get in the way unless another team swooped in and signed him to a bloated offer sheet of $5MM a year or more.

The math isn’t as simple with Brandon Bass, who’s expressed his desire to stay with the Celtics on multiple occasions in the past few months. His eight-figure cap hold makes him a prime candidate to be renounced if he and the Celtics don’t come to an agreement for a significantly lower figure during the July Moratorium. He’s a misfit for a rebuilding team with his 30th birthday looming on Thursday, but he’d be valuable for the Celtics if they somehow turned into a contender over the summer, and the Celtics clearly have some level of affection for him, or they’d have traded him at some point over the last two years.

A similar situation is at play with Jonas Jerebko, whose outsized $8.55MM cap hold the Celtics would surely renounce if they decide to open cap room. He aided the depth that marked the Celtics rotation down the stretch of the season and pulled down 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes with 40.6% three-point shooting. The Celtics would probably welcome him back, but they’d be wary not to read too much into a 29-game sample size and pay much more than the minimum. The same could be said for Gigi Datome, the other player the Celtics acquired in the deadline-day trade that sent out Tayshaun Prince. Datome shot a sizzling 47.2% from behind the arc for the C’s in the regular season, but that came on only 36 attempts, and he saw only 14 minutes total in the playoffs.

That’s still more playing time than the four postseason minutes Gerald Wallace logged, and it’s no surprise that the Celtics are willing to trade him and the more than $10MM coming his way in 2015/16, the only eight-figure salary on the books for the Celtics next season. Boston is willing to attach a first-round pick to him to make it happen, as Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders reported, and there would certainly be worse uses of one of the many such picks the Celtics have to burn than to clear Wallace’s unwieldy cap figure. Wallace’s deal will finally be up after next season, but while expiring contracts have value, they aren’t as sought after as they used to be, particularly since just about every team already has plenty of cap flexibility for the summer of 2016. The Sixers took on a season and change of JaVale McGee‘s contract for a first-round pick that’s guaranteed never to be a lottery selection, but they might charge a higher price to absorb Wallace from a fellow rebuilding Atlantic Division team.

The primary motivation for trading Wallace would appear to be the chance to open even more cap room this summer, and it came as no shock to see the Celtics connected to Kevin Love again this week. Boston’s path to a Love signing was seemingly growing shorter until Kelly Olynyk injured Love’s shoulder, angering the All-Star and leaving him with newfound ill feelings toward the Celtics, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports wrote. Aside from Love, LaMarcus Aldridge is the next best among this year’s prominent free agents who doesn’t seem overwhelmingly likely to return to his team, but Aldridge would appear far more likely to end up in his native Texas than in Boston. The Celtics will reportedly target Greg Monroe, and while there haven’t been recent links between the C’s and DeAndre Jordan, Boston reportedly spoke to the Clippers about acquiring him in the summer of 2013 and at the trade deadline that year. Omer Asik also looms as the sort of rim-protecting center the Celtics have sought, and they talked to the Rockets about trading for him during the 2013/14 season, though he’s not to be confused with a superstar.

There’s no telling if Ainge and the Celtics will find what they seek this summer, but it appears they’ll be just as aggressive in their star search as they were last summer, if not more so. The only safe bet is that the makeshift roster that qualified for the playoffs this spring won’t last until the fall.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Crowder’s cap hold would be $947,276 if the Celtics decline to tender a qualifying offer.
2 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players listed in parentheses technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Pelicans

April 27th, 2015 at 11:15am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Norris Cole ($5,095,515) — $3,036,927 qualifying offer
  • Jeff Withey ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer2

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (56th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $40,582,846
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,185,784
  • Options: $15,514,031
  • Cap Holds: $22,593,864
  • Total: $79,876,525

Rarely does a single regular season game take on so much importance, but when the Pelicans beat the Spurs in their regular season finale in a make-or-break contest for a postseason berth, there’s a decent chance it forestalled a major shakeup in the team’s braintrust. GM Dell Demps denied a report from Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports that the Pelicans told him and coach Monty Williams that they had to make the playoffs to save their jobs, but there were seemingly questions about the future of each even before the report surfaced.

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans PelicansThere are no certainties after the Warriors swept the Pelicans out of the playoffs, but whomever is in charge won’t benefit from a first-round pick this year, as the Pelicans are set to endure a third straight season without one. Technically, it’ll only be two straight years, since New Orleans drafted Nerlens Noel before the trade that sent his rights to the Sixers became official, but Noel never suited up for the Pelicans, who sent out their 2014 first-rounder in that deal, too. This year’s first-rounder went to the Rockets courtesy of the trade that brought Omer Asik to town, and while the Pelicans’ run to the playoffs left Houston with a pick that wasn’t nearly as valuable as it could have been, the lack of burgeoning talent to develop around Davis is nonetheless disconcerting. Reserve center Jeff Withey is the only player on the Pelicans roster who entered the league after Davis did.

All of this will weigh on the minds of Davis and agent Arn Tellem as they ponder whether to accept an inevitable five-year maximum-salary extension offer from the Pelicans, who will be eligible to make that tender come July. It would be highly unusual for him to decline such an offer, but there’d be little risk in letting the Pelicans twist in the wind at least until the October 31st deadline for rookie scale extensions. Outside of some catastrophic injury next season, there’s little for Davis to lose if he doesn’t sign an extension at all and instead enters restricted free agency in the summer of 2016. He could further turn the screws if he were to accept his qualifying offer, though that would entail a significantly discounted salary, and few have been willing to go through with such a drastic measure. Unless Davis is altogether displeased with the Pelicans, and he’s given no signs that he is, his next deal will almost certainly be a multiyear arrangement that keeps him in New Orleans.

The Pelicans need not fret about keeping Davis for the next few years. The concern is in using those years to build a roster that will help convince him to stay whenever his next deal is up, and perhaps the most important step toward that this summer involves Asik. Numbers paint a fuzzy picture about whether the center for whom New Orleans relinquished this year’s first-round pick lived up to his reputation as a premier defender. He ranked just 31st in Basketball-Reference Defensive Box Plus/Minus among centers who played at least 500 minutes this season. ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus shows him at No. 20 among centers, though DeAndre Jordan, the third-leading vote-getter in Defensive Player of the Year balloting, was just one spot ahead of Asik in the ESPN metric. The Pelicans gave up only 100.5 points per 100 possessions with Asik and Davis on the floor together, a mark that would have left New Orleans tied for the sixth-best defensive efficiency in the league if it held for the entire team. The Pelicans outscored opponents by 4.6 points per 100 possessions with Davis and Asik on the floor. With the big-man combo of Davis and Ryan Anderson, the Pelicans had a net rating of 6.0, more porous on defense than Davis-Asik combinations but deadly on offense, with a 112.7 offensive rating that would have been the best in the league for a full team.

A new deal with an eight-figure salary for Asik would wipe out any hope the Pelicans have of addressing their hole at small forward with cap space, since, assuming Eric Gordon opts in, as he evidently plans to do, the Pelicans are set to begin the offseason with more than $56MM in commitments. That would leave roughly $10MM worth of cap flexibility if the team preferred to go with Davis and Anderson inside and use the money that would otherwise go to Asik on the true starting-caliber small forward it lacks. Jeff Green, Luol Deng, Khris Middleton and DeMarre Carroll are among the potentially available players who could fit the bill for a salary of about $10MM a year or less.

That would allow the team to use versatile Tyreke Evans as a sixth man, as the team originally envisioned. The team figures to be able to re-sign Alexis Ajinca, whose Defensive Box Plus Minus was identical to Asik’s this year, for much less than Asik would cost. In an ideal scenario, the Pelicans would delay Ajinca’s signing and keep his minimum-salary cap hold on the books while using their cap space on other free agents before circling back to ink Ajinca and using their Early Bird rights on him to exceed the cap.

A different scenario is at play with soon-to-be restricted free agent Norris Cole, the midseason trade acquisition from the Heat. He averaged 9.9 points in 24.4 minutes per game after the trade, though part of that scoring had to do with three-point shooting that had been absent while he was Miami during the first half of the season. He shot 37.8% from behind the arc as a Pelican, but he’s just a 32.6% career three-point shooter, and the 74 three-pointers he attempted for New Orleans provide only a tiny sample size. A healthy Jrue Holiday and the use of Evans as a sixth man would leave little room in the rotation for Cole, an Ohio native and client of Cleveland-based Klutch Sports who looms as a better fit for the Cavs’ hole at backup point guard. Renouncing Cole’s outsized cap hold of more than $5MM would let the Pelicans use the full extent of their cap flexibility.

New Orleans made an 11-game improvement from last season to this one, no insignificant feat. The future holds no shortage of promise as long as Davis is around, and while uncertainty looms as the Benson family fights over control of the franchise, the Pelicans have the true superstar that so many other non-contenders lack. The length of the step forward the team takes next season is largely up to Davis, since the Pelicans have neither a first-round pick nor the ability to change the core of their roster through free agency this year. Still, shrewd management can position the team for more significant growth in years to come. Asik and Cole, the team’s most prominent free agents, aren’t strong fits, so the Pelicans would be wise to move on.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Douglas receives a full guarantee if he remains under contract through August 1st.
2 — Withey’s cap hold would be $947,276 if the Pelicans decline to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook Series

June 27th, 2014 at 8:21pm CST by Chuck Myron

The draft is in the books, but the NBA’s free agent scramble awaits. We’ve been taking an in-depth look over the past two months at each of the NBA’s 30 teams and the challenges they face as they try to improve their rosters this summer. All 30 Offseason Outlook pieces have been published, so if you missed any of your favorite teams, here’s a link to each piece, sorted by division:

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Southwest

Northwest

Pacific

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Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 26th, 2014 at 12:30am CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • Grant Jerrett ($816,482, Team)*

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (21st overall)
  • 1st Round (29th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $67,592,441
  • Options: $816,482
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,250,000
  • Cap Holds: $11,609,943
  • Total: $81,268,866

Over the last few days, teams have been daydreaming of scenarios in which they could clear enough cap space to sign LeBron James and/or Carmelo Anthony.  The Thunder are not one of those teams.  With a strong, young core, Oklahoma City knows that it can stand pat and remain as one of the top teams in the Western Conference.  The small moves the club makes beyond that, however, will dictate its chances to overtake the Spurs, Clippers, Rockets, and the rest of that truly vicious half of the NBA.

The team’s biggest priority will be to replace Thabo Sefolosha, who has about as good of a chance as returning to OKC as Clay Bennett has of winning the key to the city in Seattle.  Sefolosha, as we all know, is an extremely tough perimeter defender, but offers little in the way of scoring.  The Thunder can bump Jeremy Lamb into the starting two-guard role, but they’ll still need depth behind him if they go that route.

OKC will also be on the lookout for some frontcourt depth behind key big man Serge Ibaka and last year’s first-round pick Steven Adams.  Kendrick Perkins saw his role shrink a bit last season and his 3.4 PPG average was his lowest in years.  Nick Collison, who, like Perkins, is set to become a free agent after this coming season, also hasn’t satisfied all of the team’s needs.  Perkins might be changing teams before next summer, by the way, as OKC could very well amnesty him and his considerable salary.

The Thunder will also need to add depth at point guard, since one of the guys who played behind Russell Westbrook is now coaching the Knicks.  Seeing the soon-to-be 40-year-old Derek Fisher go might feel like a big loss to Kevin Durant and the Thunder, who looked to the veteran for leadership, but they can do a whole lot better from a basketball standpoint.  The stats weren’t kind to Fisher as he shot just 39% from the floor and posted a PER of just 10.1, though both figures actually represent improvement over the previous few years.  They won’t find anyone with the athleticism to match Westbrook, but they can certainly get someone quicker than Fisher with better scoring ability.

General Manager Sam Presti doesn’t have a ton of cap space to fill these needs, but he is armed with two first-round draft picks in one of the deepest classes in recent memory.  With picks at Nos. 21 and 29, the Thunder can’t take care of every hole, but they can plug two of the three.

At the time of this writing, DraftExpress has the Thunder drafting UConn point guard Shabazz Napier and Clemson small forward K.J. McDaniels.  Napier isn’t a world-class distributor, but he’s made strides in this area and would certainly bring the scoring that Fisher did not.  Taking McDaniels at No. 29 would give the Thunder one of the most athletic wings in the draft and, with the right tutelage, a defender to help fill the void left by Sefolosha’s departure.  ESPN’s Chad Ford, meanwhile, has OKC pegged to take UCLA small forward Kyle Anderson and his teammate, shooting guard Jordan Adams.  Anderson has the versatility to cover multiple positions and could help the Thunder in a number of areas.  Adams doesn’t have the athletic ability of the aforementioned players but he certainly knows how to put up points.  The Thunder were reportedly ready to use the No. 21 pick on 18-year-old Latvian power forward Kristaps Porzingis, but the big man surprised everyone by withdrawing from the draft just prior to the deadline earlier this month.  Some believe that the 7-footer could wind up as a top five pick in the 2015 draft.

Outside of the draft, the Thunder still have a trade exception left over from the Kevin Martin swap with the Timberwolves.  OKC has the ability to tack on $6.6MM in salary and the Thunder would be wise to use it if they can get the clearance from up top.   Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman recently suggested that the Thunder could use the exception to trade for Knicks guard Iman Shumpert.  Shumpert was lost in coach Mike Woodson‘s system last year and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be any better utilized under Fisher and Phil Jackson.  The Knicks, we imagine, would also appreciate the salary relief as they try to extend their resources and appease free agent Carmelo Anthony.  The Thunder could promote Lamb to the starting two-guard role, bring Shumpert on in support, and — assuming they don’t lose one of them in this hypothetical trade — use their two first-rounders to satisfy their needs at point guard and in the frontcourt.

Internally, the Thunder might also like to take care of guard Reggie Jackson with a contract extension.  Presti has appeared to downplay this notion, but it’s hard to see the Thunder not being open to working out a new deal between now and Halloween.  “Generally, these things don’t happen in July, and the trend now is they don’t happen by the October 31st deadline,” Presti said earlier this month.  The Thunder traded James Harden rather than give him the contract he wanted, but Presti doesn’t foresee the same thing happening with Jackson.

While OKC’s trade exception could become a factor between now and its expiration date on July 11th, much of the heavy lifting this summer will take place in the draft.  Stay tuned, Thunder fans.

Cap footnotes

* — Jerrett’s cap hold would be equal to the amount of his option if the Thunder declines the option, unless the team elects to tender a qualifying offer. In that case, his cap hold would be $1,016,482, equal to the amount of the qualifying offer.
** — Thabeet’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before September 1st.
*** — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Fisher’s cap hold technically remains on the books for the Thunder even though he’s taken the head coaching job for the Knicks, thus retiring as a player.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia 76ers

June 23rd, 2014 at 10:36pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (3rd overall)
  • 1st Round (10th overall)
  • 2nd Round (32nd overall)
  • 2nd Round (39th overall)
  • 2nd Round (47th overall)
  • 2nd Round (52nd overall)
  • 2nd Round (54th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $19,553,989
  • Options: $7,664,509
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $6,167,100
  • Cap Holds: $7,619,625
  • Total: $41,005,223

In the modern NBA, teams believe that you have to move in one of two directions: either toward the No. 1 record or toward the No. 1 pick.  We all know which way the Sixers went last season.  Now, armed with more picks than any other team in the 2014 draft, GM Sam Hinkie has to show fans that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

The 76ers won’t be expected to contend this season but there has to be an improvement over their 19-63 mark.  Any discussion of the 76ers’ offseason has to start with Thursday’s draft.  The 76ers have been heavily connected to Kansas’ Andrew Wiggins since they’re in desperate need of an impact wing.  Unfortunately for them, Joel Embiid‘s injury figures to have a domino effect at the top of the draft that could leave them shut out of their guy at No. 3.  Wiggins could have been there for Hinkie with Embiid and Jabari Parker coming off the board at Nos. 1 and 2, but Embiid being taken out of the picture makes Wiggins seem like the best option for the Cavs at the top of the draft.  If Hinkie is dead set on landing Wiggins, the consensus No. 1 overall pick before the 2013/14 college season got underway, he could try getting on the phone with the Cavs and offering up the No. 3 and other picks.  However, that’s probably a long shot given the win-now directive that has been handed down for Cleveland by owner Dan Gilbert.

A truly pragmatic approach to the situation would be for the 76ers to draft Embiid.  Yes, Embiid will be out of commission for at least four to six months.  And, yes, Embiid had some pretty serious back trouble that was causing red flags before the foot injury.  And, yes, the 76ers are still waiting on Nerlens Noel to make his NBA debut.  But, if Embiid comes back strong from the injury and doesn’t miss extended time, he could very well turn out to be the best talent in the entire class.  Besides, the Sixers can get someone at No. 10 who can come in and hit the ground running while the KU big man heals up.

A third scenario for the Sixers at No. 3 would be drafting Australian guard Dante Exum.  It has been an open secret for months that the Sixers are high on the 6’7″ 19-year-old but, of course, he’s not a fit with Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams running the point.  But what if he wasn’t anymore?  Philly is said to be open to trading MCW and there’s no question that he could yield something of considerable value.  The Syracuse product averaged 16.7 points, 6.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds in 34.5 minutes per game this past season, but his shooting deficiencies are troubling and his 15.5 PER casts him as more of a big fish in a small pond than anything.  In theory, Philly could try pairing Exum and Carter-Williams in the backcourt together, but shooting isn’t Exum’s strength either.  The Sixers wouldn’t fetch nearly as much for last year’s No. 11 overall pick if he goes out and shoots 26.4% from downtown again without someone to help cover up his lack of range.

There are plenty of possibilities at No. 3 and there are also tons of options at No. 10, depending on how the draft plays out.  If the Sixers don’t pluck Embiid at No. 3, there are a couple of very promising bigs that could fall to them at their second first-round slot.  The Celtics (No. 6) and Lakers (No. 7) are thought to covet Aaron Gordon, but it’s conceivable that he falls.  Same goes for Julius Randle, a player who not long ago was thought to be a certainty for the top five.

The 76ers currently hold an eye-popping seven picks (Nos. 3, 10, 32, 39, 47, 52, 54) and while at least one or two of those picks figure to be used on European draft-and-stash candidates, Philly is expected to trade a few of them, either to land a veteran or to perhaps acquire a third first-round pick.  If they take some of those choices and package them with Thaddeus Young, they could get the kind of impact piece they’re looking for.  A trade could be beneficial for all parties involved.  Young stopped short of demanding a trade this spring but he said that requesting a change of scenery was a possibility.  The former lottery pick is coming off of a season in which he averaged a career-high 17.9 PPG and even though the increased scoring load caused a dip in efficiency, it stands to reason that he’ll have suitors if he’s put on the block.  Of course, Young is completely expendable if Randle or Gordon falls to Hinkie’s lap at No. 10.  A scenario where the 76ers draft Exum and Randle or Gordon while turning MCW and Young into a starting-caliber shooting guard and small forward sounds like a pretty solid plan.

With more draft picks than guaranteed contracts on the roster and less than ~$30MM on the books, the possibilities for the 76ers are endless.  Much of what they do this offseason will hinge on what happens with the first and second overall picks and the timetable that Hinkie wants to pursue.

Cap footnotes

* — The Sixers waived Maynor in March in spite of a player option on his contract for 2014/15. Since he didn’t have a chance to decide on that option, Philadelphia owes Maynor his salary for next season, just as if Maynor had opted in.
** — Richardson has reportedly opted in, but if there’s somehow a last-minute change and he opts out, his cap hold would be $9,306,375.
*** — The cap hold for Mullens would be $915,243 if he were to opt out.
**** — Anderson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
***** — The cap hold for Thomas would be $816,482 if the Sixers declined to tender his qualifying offer. ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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