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Offseason Outlook: Indiana Pacers

June 22nd, 2014 at 10:29pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (57th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $60,055,974
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,875,716
  • Cap Holds: $24,014,959
  • Total: $88,946,649

Just when the Nets thought they had the mantle of the NBA’s weirdest season all sewn up, the Pacers came along and blew them out of the water.  The Pacers have been known as a hard-working, cohesive team over the last few years, but the second half this season was chock full of locker room turmoil and questionable effort.

The strangeness continued in the Eastern Conference Finals with Lance Stephenson‘s antics directed at LeBron James.  The Pacers spent much of the season worrying that they might lose the 23-year-old Stephenson in free agency, but it now seems quite possible that Indiana won’t welcome him back. President of basketball operations Larry Bird proclaimed that the decision whether to return would be Stephenson’s, but that was on the heels of a report that there are many within the Pacers organization who don’t believe the team should give Stephenson a lucrative long-term deal. It’s not hard to understand why there would be doubts about him. Stephenson’s talent is undeniable and when he’s on, his energy is a very real difference maker for the Pacers.  Unfortunately, his behavior has hurt them on the court and caused a reported rift in the locker room with center Roy Hibbert and midseason acquisition Evan Turner.

The decision to keep Stephenson, of course, won’t be so black-and-white — it’ll be heavily dependent on the offers he gets from other clubs.  The Hornets and Pistons have been cited as potential suitors and there should be plenty more coming out of the woodwork.  Earlier this season, it looked like Stephenson could draw a deal worth about $10MM per season. Now, Stephenson has probably dinged his value, with a former GM recently pegging his expected earnings at $5-8MM per year.  A deal around the middle of that range, about $7MM/year, would seem to split the difference between Stephenson’s million-dollar body and ten-cent head. Something like a three-year, $21MM pact could satisfy Stephenson’s camp and give the Pacers a digestible, if not ideal, level of risk.

Stephenson is hardly the only Pacers notable that could be in a different uniform next year. It wasn’t long ago that this would have been unthinkable, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Pacers entertain offers for Hibbert.  George Hill, who is slated to make $8MM in 2014/15, could also be moved for the right price.  It’s harder to see someone like David West getting dealt, but then again, it was hard to envision the Pacers falling apart the way they did this past season.  Another trade chip could be Chris Copeland, even if he doesn’t seem as alluring as the aforementioned names. The forward was more or less buried on the Pacers’ bench, but when he did get playing time, he flashed a shooting range that few men his size can offer. Bird & Co. must leave no stone unturned in their bid to get back on the right track.

The Pacers have some serious work to do when it comes to their second unit.  Turner didn’t nearly have the kind of impact that Indiana was hoping for last season and he seems as good as gone.  Even while the Pacers watched Stephenson get wacky down the stretch of the season, they still trusted him much more than their mid-season acquisition.  Few would have expected the Pacers to use Turner in just 12.4 minutes per contest in the playoffs after trading Danny Granger for one of the biggest names dealt in February, but that’s how things ended up with Indiana and the former No. 2 overall pick.  Turner is ticketed to go elsewhere and he’s certain to earn less than the eight-figure salary he pocketed last season.  Bird believes that the bench role didn’t really suit Turner well and seems confident that he’ll find success in someone else’s uniform.  “Whatever happens, wherever he’s at next year, if he plays 30-35 minutes, he’s going to average 17 points,” Bird told reporters, including Conrad Brunner of ESPN 1070.

Veteran Luis Scola offers toughness and veteran guidance, but with less than $1MM of his $4.87MM guaranteed for next season, the Pacers might let him go in order to give themselves more flexibility elsewhere.  Scola averaged 17.1 minutes, 7.6 points, and 4.8 rebounds last season, career-lows in each category.  The forward seemed lost in coach Frank Vogel‘s offense and there’s certainly no guarantee that he can get in the groove next season.

The Pacers won’t have a ton of wiggle room to improve their bench, especially if they re-sign Stephenson.  There will be low-cost fixes out there, however, and they’re reportedly showing interest in Spanish league power forward Damjan Rudez.  If the Pacers move Copeland, it sounds like Rudez could be a solid replacement with his 47.3% three-point shooting percentage.

What the Pacers won’t have at their disposal, unfortunately, is their first round pick (No. 27), which they traded to the Suns a year ago for Scola.  Bird knows how valuable a first round pick is in this year’s deep draft and told reporters recently (including Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star) that he’d like to trade back into the top 30.  A sign-and-trade of Stephenson could certainly yield a pick — and more — but there’s no question that they’d rather have Stephenson back at the right price.  No matter how you slice it, the Pacers’ offseason will revolve on what happens with the polarizing guard.

Cap footnotes

* — Sloan’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 15th.

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Heat

June 20th, 2014 at 10:00am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (26th overall)
  • 2nd Round (55th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $2,038,206
  • Options: $67,412,490
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $816,482
  • Cap Holds: $27,399,837
  • Total: $97,667,015

It’s an easy assumption that what LeBron James decides to do regarding free agency this summer will serve as the prime mover for all other matters pertaining to the Heat, and for a fair number of issues around the league, too. Still, at least in Miami’s case, others hold considerable sway that could significantly change the equation. Whatever willingness James has to take a discount on his next contract wouldn’t mean nearly as much if either Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade or both decide to opt in for next season or insist on new deals at market value. Udonis Haslem can also throw a hefty wrench into Miami’s ability to make a noteworthy upgrade if he opts in. The Heat would end up with nearly $47.5MM in commitments to four players if Wade, Bosh and Haslem all opt in. With another roughly $4MM in roster charges thrown in, James would have to sign a new contract for a starting salary of less than $11.7MM just to give the Heat any space at all under the projected $63.2MM cap. James would realistically have to sign for close to the minimum for the Heat to ink a free agent for much more than the mid-level in that scenario, so suffice it to say that James doesn’t necessarily hold all the cards here.

He nonetheless has as much sway as anyone does, and the Heat won’t know how to approach their summer until he picks where he’ll be spending next winter, and how well he’ll want to be compensated for doing so. The most lucrative path for James would probably involve opting in for next season, unless the maximum salary for a player of his experience jumps by about $1.5MM or more following the July moratorium. That route would also give him plenty of flexibility, since he has another option on his contract after next season before the deal finally runs out in 2016. Still, LeBron might believe that giving agent Rich Paul the chance to talk with other teams and watch how they contort their rosters to build enticing championship contenders is worth the sacrifice. The Heat will get the first crack to make their pitch, regardless of whether he opts out, and when it comes to finding ways to create attractive rosters, none are better at it than Heat president Pat Riley.

Riley left the door open just a crack to a pursuit of Carmelo Anthony in his comments Thursday, but mostly he acknowledged just what a long shot it would be to convince ‘Melo to come to South Beach. The path to Kyle Lowry, who reportedly has some level of interest in joining the Heat, is somewhat easier to navigate. He’s unlikely to command the max, with Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports having suggested earlier this season that he’s in line for a deal worth $11MM a year. Such a contract would still require sacrifice on the part of Miami’s incumbent stars, but unlike with ‘Melo, who’s in line for about twice as much, it would represent market price, or close to it, for Lowry. Still, the Raptors seem poised to put up a fight, and Lowry has expressed plenty of affection for Toronto, which has Lowry’s Bird rights and thus the ammunition to mount a bidding war against the Heat. It would pit Riley, the resolve of Miami’s stars to cut deep into their earnings, Raptors GM Masai Ujiri‘s willingness to spend on a potential one-hit wonder, and Lowry’s preferences in a four-way tug-of-war. It’s unlikely it would result in Lowry moving to Miami, but it would be foolish to place a bet on just about any scenario involving the Heat’s offseason.

The Heat were reportedly enamored with Lowry long before Mario Chalmers went into his postseason funk. Chalmers is hitting free agency at a poor time for his earning potential, though I suspect most front offices will give more weight to his career high PER in 2013/14 than to his Game 5 benching. The Sam Goldfeder client also faces a buyer’s market for point guards, and the Heat will probably ask him to take a discount if he’s to stay in Miami. Still, if Riley is to be believed, owner Micky Arison isn’t worried about the tax, so if that’s true, I’d expect Miami to bid whatever’s necessary to bring him back if the Heat don’t end up with Lowry or another upgrade at point guard. Norris Cole is probably ready to take the reigns as the starting point guard, but there’s high risk in experimenting like that when the goal is to win immediately.

Chris Andersen, who’s set to opt out, will become another key free agent outside of the big three for Miami. The Mavs have already been identified as a suitor, and the Birdman will no doubt be able to command a raise on his minimum salary after his most productive season since his heyday in Denver. Still, he took less to stay with the Heat last summer, and even his decision to opt out could be construed as a favor to Miami, since it lowers his cap hold. There’s reason for the client of Mark Bryant to look to cash in on the market, since he’ll turn 36 next month, but it seems like he feels a sense of loyalty to the organization that took a chance on him and allowed him to resurrect his career after the Nuggets amnestied him in 2012.

Andersen typifies many of the Heat supporting cast, which is stocked with players well beyond their 30th birthdays. Riley spoke Thursday of a desire to infuse some youth onto the team, so I wouldn’t be surprised if long-tenured Heat reserve swingman James Jones cedes his roster spot to 2013 second-round pick James Ennis, whom Riley mentioned by name. Shane Battier has retired, so his role will also need to be filled, and perhaps the Heat will look for a player who has many of Battier’s skills with the No. 26 pick. Cleanthony Early would make sense if the Heat go this route.

Rashard Lewis took over the Battier role in the playoffs, moving into the starting lineup and making his most significant contributions in two years with the Heat. Still, it probably wasn’t enough to convince another team to pay him more than the minimum salary as he stares down his 35th birthday this summer, and he seems well-position to return to the Heat and see if he can pick up where he left off as the starting power forward.

Just about every available free agent is in play in some regard for Miami as the team looks to make external upgrades around its core. The same would be true even if James bolts, since Miami, with its warm weather, no state income tax, and the inimitable Riley, is a perennially attractive team, regardless of the presence of the four-time MVP. I’d imagine the Heat would go hard after Anthony and many other top free agents if one or more of its existing stars decide not to come back, and Riley probably wouldn’t have to work too hard to build another team capable of contending for the Eastern Conference title. Miami will survive with or without James. Yet even as the league’s preeminent star wields less of a hammer than it might seem, the best chance the Heat have of winning a title is with him, rather than against him. Doing whatever’s necessary to align with the top stars in pursuit of a championship was the guiding principle for LeBron when he chose to join the Heat four years ago, and the Heat will follow the same philosophy as they attempt to keep him.

Cap footnotes

* — If James opts out, his cap hold would be the greater of $20,020,875 or the maximum salary for a player with 10 or more years of experience. That maximum was $19,181,750 this past season, but it won’t be clear exactly what that figure will be for 2014/15 until the end of the July moratorium.
** — If Bosh opts out, his cap hold would be the greater of $20,020,875 or the maximum salary for a player with 10 or more years of experience. That maximum was $19,181,750 this past season, but it won’t be clear exactly what that figure will be for 2014/15 until the end of the July moratorium.
*** — If Wade opts out, his cap hold would be the greater of $19,606,650 or the maximum salary for a player with 10 or more years of experience. That maximum was $19,181,750 this past season, but it won’t be clear exactly what that figure will be for 2014/15 until the end of the July moratorium.
**** — Haslem’s cap hold would be $8,246,000 if he opts out.
***** — Andersen reportedly intends to opt out, and his cap hold would be $915,243 if he indeed does so.
****** — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Howard’s cap hold technically remains on the books for the Heat even though he’s now an assistant coach for the team and has retired from playing.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: San Antonio Spurs

June 18th, 2014 at 5:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (30th overall)
  • 2nd Round (58th overall)
  • 2nd Round (60th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $33,644,820
  • Options: $10,361,446
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $9,813,384
  • Cap Holds: $33,924,656
  • Total: $87,744,306

Three years ago, the Spurs had finished three consecutive seasons without winning a single game in the second round of the playoffs. There was little reason to think then that Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili would be celebrating their fourth championship together in 2014. Now, after having lost in the conference finals in 2012, lost in the Finals in 2013 and won the Finals in 2014, there’s a strong chance that a repeat championship, the lone goal that has eluded the Spurs, is in the offing.

Surely that thought is on the minds of Popovich, Duncan and Ginobili, whose collective willingness to continue is the key to San Antonio’s hopes in 2014/15. Only Duncan left any noteworthy doubt about his desire to play next season, saying that he hadn’t made up his mind. Still, he’s given no indication that he’s been leaning toward walking away. The forward’s other comments have made it seem like he’s operating as though he’ll be back, and that’s been the working assumption of the Spurs. The 38-year-old will cost San Antonio slightly more than originally thought thanks to the NBA’s adjustment of his contract, which had originally been ratified in spite of terms that violated the collective bargaining agreement, but the $361,446 difference doesn’t loom large. He’s still a bargain, just like so many of his teammates.

There’s also a decision of sorts surrounding Parker, but there’s no realistic chance that San Antonio will waive him and pocket the $9MM in non-guaranteed salary on his contract. Doing so would give the Spurs the chance to open more than $17MM in cap room, but it’s doubtful that San Antonio would be able to attract anyone better, and certainly not anyone more knowledgeable of the Spurs complicated system, than Parker.

The Spurs will have the chance to clear about $8MM with Parker on board, but the cap holds for Boris Diaw and Patrick Mills, which the team seems unlikely to renounce, makes it most likely that the Spurs operate as a capped-out team. That means the club can use the mid-level exception — probably the higher, non-taxpayer’s variety — to add a valuable piece to the championship mix. The Spurs split the mid-level on Marco Belinelli and Jeff Ayres last summer, with Belinelli becoming a rotation mainstay and even starting 25 regular season contests. The championship luster adds shine to even the smallest of markets, and Popovich and GM R.C. Buford shouldn’t have trouble finding takers for their free agent money. The caveat, as always, is finding someone with the humility and on-court sophistication necessary to play for San Antonio. Pau Gasol seems to check all the necessary boxes as a skilled passer with an admiration for the Spurs who’ll probably command the mid-level and could add to the club’s unprecedented number of players from outside the U.S., but he’ll have plenty of other suitors. Finding playing time for Gasol or any outside addition will be a challenge on such a deep roster, particularly if Diaw and Mills return.

There’s apparently some trepidation in rival front offices about the ability of Diaw and Mills to perform as well outside of the San Antonio system as they did in it. That’s certainly valid given that Diaw played so poorly that the 2011/12 Bobcats, the team with the worst winning percentage in NBA history, agreed to a buyout to cut him loose at midseason. Still, his stint with the Spurs rescued what appeared to be a foundering career, and given that he’s a big man whose insertion into the starting lineup sparked three straight blowout victories, he’ll no doubt command plenty of attention on the market. It’s conceivable that a team that admires his selfless style of play floats an offer akin to the $5.035MM non-taxpayer’s mid-level, but the Spurs, who have Diaw’s Bird rights and paid him almost as much this past season, would probably be willing to shell out similar money to keep him. The sticking point will likely come down to the number of years and the amount of guaranteed money on the 32-year-old Doug Neustadt client’s next deal.

The situation regarding Mills is somewhat more delicate, since unlike Diaw, there’s a report indicating mutual interest between him and another NBA team. That club is the Knicks, but it’s not entirely certain whether Phil Jackson shares the sentiments of the rest of the Knicks brass, who’ve long held the Creative Artists Agency client in high regard. Mills would nonetheless make sense for a team looking for a new starting point guard but with tight restrictions on the salary it can dole out. Mills doubled last year’s scoring average this season, meriting a raise on this season’s $1.134MM salary. The Knicks probably wouldn’t be able to sign him for a starting salary of more than $3.278MM, and while the Spurs have full Bird rights on Mills, it’s worth wondering if they’re ready to nearly triple the salary of someone who averaged just 18.9 minutes per game in the regular season and 15.3 MPG in the playoffs.

The end of Matt Bonner‘s contract will probably help the Spurs clear room for Mills and others. The Red Rocket still made a contribution this past season, but he was overpaid on $3.945MM for career lows of 3.2 PPG and 11.3 MPG. Bonner and San Antonio seem like the proper fit, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him return on a new deal, but probably for the minimum salary or an amount just marginally more than that.

The Spurs will probably approach negotiations for next season with 2015/16 as much in mind as 2014/15, if not more so. A new deal for Kawhi Leonard wouldn’t kick in until after next season, but if there was any doubt that he could command the maximum salary in rookie scale extension talks this summer, his Finals MVP award erased it. The only questions are whether he and his representatives at Impact Sports Basketball will consent to a discount, as many of his teammates have, and if so, what sort of sacrifice the Spurs would ask for. San Antonio only has Tiago Splitter‘s $8.5MM salary on the books for 2015/16, and that combined with rapidly escalating projections for the salary cap and luxury tax line give the Spurs all kinds of long-term flexibility. Leonard is only in line for a max equal to 25% of the salary cap, as opposed to the 30% or 35% that others can make, so the Spurs might do well to make a gesture of good faith and give the 22-year-old a full, five-year max extension. That would make him San Antonio’s Designated Player, but the team doesn’t have any other up-and-comers on rookie scale contracts who’d make the Spurs regret committing that status to Leonard.

Still, the lack of young talent aside from Leonard is a concern, even given San Antonio’s knack for turning castaways into productive players. Splitter, Mills and Danny Green are all key contributors under the age of 30, but moving forward from the retirements of Duncan and Ginobili with a core of those three, Leonard and an aging Parker doesn’t sound promising. The Spurs will have to make the most of their well-honed scouting chops to come up with more gems later in the draft, and Parker’s deal to buy the majority stake in French team Asvel Villeurbanne can only help. That club produced Spurs 2013 “draft-and-stash” first-rounder Livio Jean-Charles, among others, and any edge that San Antonio can gain overseas will be crucial to a franchise that’s thrived on international imports.

Buford knows that the retirements of Duncan and Popovich will be “numbing and changing” for the franchise, and he probably feels the same way about Ginobili, too. Yet it seems that those retirements are at least a year away. The Spurs, as ever, are no doubt preparing for the eventuality of them, but for now, the goal is to win back-to-back titles. Popovich doesn’t anticipate major changes to the roster this summer, and there doesn’t appear to be any need for such. The key is retaining Diaw and Mills and adding a rotation-worthy player with the mid-level exception, though none of those tasks appear daunting. Hard work is a cornerstone of the Spurs organization, but coming up with another championship roster for next season won’t be rigorous.

Cap footnotes

* — Duncan’s cap hold would be $15,542,169 if he opts out.
** — Parker’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
*** — Daye’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
**** — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Horry and others listed in parentheses below his name technically remain on the books for the Spurs.
***** — The cap hold for Baynes would be $915,243 if the Spurs elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
****** — The Spurs hold the draft rights to Jean-Charles, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 28th overall pick in 2013, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 28th overall pick in this year’s draft. The Spurs can erase his cap hold from their books and still retain the draft rights to Jean-Charles if he and the team agree in writing that he won’t sign during the 2014/15 season.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Charlotte Hornets

June 18th, 2014 at 8:40am CST by Cray Allred

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (9th overall)
  • 1st Round (24th overall)
  • 2nd Round (45th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $41,156,697
  • Options: $2,771,340
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $915,243
  • Cap Holds: $15,004,672
  • Total: $59,847,952

The Hornets are looking to turn the page on what was a mostly abysmal chapter played in Charlotte as the Bobcats, hoping to build on a playoff berth and some promising signs from a young roster. They’re set up well to do just that, with two first round picks and cap flexibility this offseason. While the recent resignation of Rod Higgins as president of basketball ops could be seen as a sign of a dysfunctional organization heading into a pivotal summer, owner Michael Jordan explained the move as if GM Rich Cho was going to be handling personnel moves going forward regardless of whether Higgins remained in the front office.

It would be hard to imagine the Eastern Conference putting forth a worse field than it did this past year, but the Hornets have a legitimate chance to move up the ranks even if the teams around them strengthen. As the seventh seed this season, they finished only a game back from the fifth-seeded Wizards, and just five games behind the third-seeded Raptors. While some Eastern foes are desperate to recover and compete next year, there are still plenty of teams due another year of struggling and retooling. Jordan seems to prefer to pursue immediate success, and that mindset will likely frame what kinds of moves the Hornets make this summer.

First-year head coach Steve Clifford was able to turn a roster devoid of many heralded defenders into one of the NBA’s better defensive teams this season. The Hornets ranked sixth in defensive rating, but also found themselves near the bottom of league in offensive rating (per NBA.com). Al Jefferson excelled in the post, but interior offense has become more important as a means to open up opportunities around the perimeter in recent years, and the Hornets haven’t packed much punch on the outside. Kemba Walker improved his overall efficiency while maintaining a 17.7 PPG average, but remained a below-average shooter from distance, making just 33.3% of his three point attempts.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been a part of the problem on offense. He has been the elite wing defender the Charlotte brass envisioned when they selected him second overall in the 2012 draft, but his lackluster shooting has stuck with him thus far in his career. Charlotte will have to decide whether to pick up his team option, worth slightly more than $5MM, for the 2015/16 season by this fall, but that salary seems perfectly fair for a top-shelf perimeter defender as young and full of potential as Kidd-Gilchrist is.

One of the biggest dominoes to fall for the Hornets will be the Josh McRoberts contract situation. McRoberts, one of the league’s best passing bigs, has yet to formally decide whether to pick up his $2.8MM player option for next season, though it seems likely that he will opt out. If he does so, he’ll almost certainly attract offers at a higher salary for multiple years. Clifford said his team needs McRoberts, so the Hornets’ cap space will likely shrink if the power forward opts out. Even if they didn’t bring back McRoberts, the only way they could reasonably expect to replace him with a starter at or below his current salary would be through the draft, and finding an impact starter for a playoff-hopeful where Charlotte is drafting is far from a given. The Pistons pick was conveyed to the Hornets at No. 9, so Charlotte possesses the No. 9 and No. 24 selections this month.

Considering Jefferson’s role, the possibility of McRoberts’ return, and the continued development of in Cody Zeller, last year’s No. 4 draft pick, the Hornets would presumably prioritize wing players in looking to improve next season. The Hornets haven’t leaked much about their leanings in the draft, but Doug McDermott is a rumored possibility at No. 9. A player like McDermott, who can shoot extremely well from the wing, would make sense as a fit either in the starting lineup or a heavy rotation piece off the bench.

In addition to McDermott and others, the Hornets have worked out some point guards, including Tyler Ennis. Moving Walker off the ball at least part of the time would be an intriguing strategy of optimizing the team’s offensive weapons, although at 6’1″, Walker could be overmatched against non-point guards on defense to the point that such lineups wouldn’t work. Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer has opined that the Hornets will package their picks in a trade for a veteran contributor. Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour were brought in at the trade deadline this season and made positive contributions down the stretch. Both have proven capable of being quality backup guards, giving the Hornets some backcourt flexibility looking ahead. Neal is signed through next season, but Ridnour will become a free agent.

With the salary cap projected to increase to at least $63.2MM next year, the Hornets could clear upwards of $20MM in cap space if they need it to sign a marquee free agent. Various reports have cast Charlotte as a likely suitor for Luol Deng, Greg Monroe, and other notables. Jordan is optimistic about the team’s ability to draw “superstar” free agents to Charlotte, and Jefferson is embracing the role of recruiter. While the likes of Carmelo Anthony and trade candidate Kevin Love have shown no interest in Charlotte, an improving roster and a lottery pick in what is thought to be a loaded draft could help the Hornets land a significant piece, if not an All-Star. Other intriguing players who will be available, either through unrestricted or restricted free agency, include Gordon Hayward, Lance Stephenson and Trevor Ariza. A two-way player like Deng or Ariza could move the needle offensively without sacrificing the team’s defensive identity, while a talent like Hayward or Stephenson could inject life into the offense while fitting into a scheme to limit their deficiencies on defense.

Should the Hornets renounce Ridnour’s rights or re-sign him to a smaller contract, they could free a significant chunk of cap room to devote to McRoberts if needed, or to the pursuit of another team’s free agent. If the Hornets keep and use both of their picks on non-draft-and-stash prospects, the rookie scale will govern that they add nearly $3.8MM in salary for next season, providing they give the draftees the standard 120% of their scale amounts.

Chris Douglas-Roberts is considered likely to re-sign, and could fetch a significant raise for 2014/15. “CDR” played more total minutes this season than he had since 2009/10. Even the veteran’s minimum would amount to an increase on his pro-rated earnings on a minimum deal this year. Jeffery Taylor has a non-guaranteed $915,243 on the books, and Anthony Tolliver and Jannero Pargo could be let go or brought back on modest deals. Tolliver is a competent three-point specialist, and Pargo has bounced around the league as an emergency point guard in recent years.

However the Hornets handle their offseason, they begin it in a position that a majority of teams in the Eastern Conference would envy. A solid coach, a stable of assets, and plenty of cap room will make this team one to watch as summer heats up.

Cap footnotes

* — If McRoberts declines his option, as he’s widely expected to do, his cap hold would be $5,038,800.
** — Taylor’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Pelicans

June 17th, 2014 at 3:21pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $54,088,513
  • Options: $1,145,685
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,114,375
  • Cap Holds: $17,456,125
  • Total: $75,804,698

The Pelicans probably have the league’s most promising player under the age of 25 in Anthony Davis, but in spite of his continued improvement, the future of the team doesn’t look quite as bright as it did at this time a year ago. New Orleans traded the No. 6 pick in last year’s draft and what turned out to be the No. 10 pick for Jrue Holiday and Pierre Jackson. The player taken at No. 6 last year, Nerlens Noel, was widely seen as the favorite to go No. 1 before concerns about his injured knee seemed to scare teams off. This year’s draft is full of highly touted prospects, and not the one in which most teams would easily give up a lottery pick. GM Dell Demps surely didn’t envision this year’s pick ending up in the lottery when he sent it to Philadelphia, but thanks to a rash of injuries and a crushingly competitive Western Conference, the Pelicans finished 15 games out of the playoffs this past season.

Noel and whomever the Sixers select at No. 10 could turn out to be busts, or simply less productive than the combination of Holiday and Jackson, but Demps lowered the team’s ceiling with a play for a veteran and a much less heralded prospect. Jackson outstripped expectations in the D-League, averaging 29.1 points per game, but the notion that his performance is a harbinger of NBA stardom is questionable at best. Jackson nonetheless set up a quandary for Demps and company, playing so well that he and agent Colin Bryant gained leverage not usually incumbent of someone picked 42nd overall. The Hornets can hold on to his NBA rights in perpetuity until they sign him, but Bryant and Jackson can command a relatively lucrative deal guaranteed over multiple seasons or a one-year contract that would allow him to quickly hit the open market. The Pelicans went so far as to give Bryant the OK to seek trades for Jackson in the middle of the season, but he was unable to find a deal suitable for all parties, and Jackson struck a deal shortly before the trade deadline to play in Turkey. Demps is making no promises that he’ll bring Jackson to New Orleans for next season, and so an intriguing asset from last year’s pivotal trade remains in limbo.

Holiday, like so many Pelicans in 2013/14, missed significant time because of injury this season, playing in just 34 games. He, Jason Smith and Ryan Anderson were all key Pelicans who missed more than half of the season, and only four players appeared in as many as 70 games for New Orleans. It would be tough to properly judge the team based on its lack of time together, and indeed Demps has said he’s reserving judgment until he can see the club at full health. Demps also said in that same April interview that he likes the team’s core, but it seems he’s at least doing his due diligence to see if an upgrade is available.

The Pelicans have reportedly asked the Pistons about sign-and-trade possibilities involving New Orleans native Greg Monroe. Most executives around the league believe the 24-year-old will eye his hometown in restricted free agency this summer, as Sean Deveney of The Sporting News wrote. Still, Monroe and agent David Falk will no doubt ask for much more than the Pelicans’ cap flexibility, which figures to clock in at around $8MM, can provide. A sign-and-trade would be about the only way the Pelicans could wind up with Monroe, and there will be plenty of others after the promising and already productive young big man. That includes Monroe’s current team, as Pistons executive/coach Stan Van Gundy has repeatedly praised Monroe while stopping short of talk about a max deal. It would probably take the max or a rather close facsimile for the Pelicans or anyone else to convince the Pistons not to match, and even though Monroe’s only eligible for a max roughly equivalent to 25% of the salary cap, he would be a questionable fit in a frontcourt that includes Davis.

Coach Monty Williams nonetheless seems to prefer a traditional lineup with two big men, at least to start the game, rather than a small-ball look with Davis and Anderson. Smith emerged as the team’s starting center, beating out offseason signee Greg Stiemsma, and he put up some of the best numbers of his career before he got hurt, including 9.7 points and 5.8 rebounds in 26.8 minutes per game. Still, those figures plus a 12.4 PER that represented a steep decline from the previous two years don’t exactly add up to a long-term answer in the middle. The Pelicans have his Bird rights, and he’d make sense as a target the team might circle back to for a salary akin to mid-level money after taking care of more pressing concerns.

Al-Farouq Aminu might fit largely in the same category if the Pelicans had a suitable alternative. Aminu started most of the year for the team at small forward, though he averaged only 25.6 minutes per contest, barely more than half the game. New Orleans would no doubt like to go small when it can, with Holiday, Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans sharing the floor, but that’s not always an option. Aminu was second on the team in defensive win shares this past season, according to Basketball-Reference, but he averaged fewer than one three-point attempt per game and made just 27.1%, severely crimping the Pelicans’ offensive spacing. It’s tough to envision New Orleans having much success with a pair of traditional big men and Aminu on the front line, furthering the argument for Anderson to start if Aminu returns.

A trade represents the Pelicans’ best chance for an upgrade at small forward, with either Gordon or Evans the most logical candidate to go. The team denied at least a pair of reports about their willingness to trade either of them, and trade rumors have dogged Gordon ever since he publicly discouraged the Pelicans’ from matching his offer sheet from the Suns in 2012. Both are on player-friendly contracts, making them difficult to move. The sharpshooting Anthony Morrow seemed a more likely trade candidate at the deadline, and while he’s still deciding what to do about his minimum-salary player option, it would be something of a surprise if he didn’t become a free agent this summer. The Pelicans have his Non-Bird rights should he opt out, but that gives the team the flexbility of giving him only 120% of his minimum-salary paychecks from this past season. That hardly seems enough to retain a 28-year-old who made 45.1% of his three-pointers in 2.6 attempts per game this season. meaning New Orleans would have to eat into its cap flexibility, or, if Demps decides to keep the team above the cap, its mid-level exception. The shooting-deficient Bobcats had interest at the deadline in Morrow, who’s a Charlotte native, so keeping him in New Orleans could be a tall order.

The Pelicans also face decisions regarding Brian Roberts, especially after New Orleans upped the value of his qualifying offer significantly when they gave him his 41st start of the year in the next-to-last game of the regular season. Meeting the starter criteria caused his qualifying offer to jump from $1,115,243 to $2,875,131, as I explained. It also means there’s a much greater disparity between the QO, which will be his cap hold if the Pelicans tender it, and the two-year veteran’s minimum salary that would be Roberts’ cap hold if the Pelicans decide against extending the QO. The Pelicans probably don’t envision Roberts starting half the season for them again, and while he’s proven a careful ball-handler and proficient backup, I’m not sure that New Orleans will want to keep him around at that salary, particularly given the presence of 2012 No. 10 overall pick Austin Rivers. Perhaps Demps and agent Andy Miller will negotiate early next month toward a long-term guaranteed deal that gives Roberts security at lower annual salaries that reduce Roberts’ cap figure.

The Pelicans enter the offseason without cap flexibility and without a pick in either round of the draft. Demps will have to be creative if he wants to significantly upgrade his team, but his public enthusiasm for seeing more of the team’s existing core suggests the Pelicans won’t be pulling off another major trade on draft night or at any other point this offseason. Demps and the Pelicans will no doubt jump on an opportunity to make a deal if one comes along, but it seems they’re in for a quiet summer in advance of a season that looms as a measuring stick for the team’s roster and the GM who put it together.

Cap footnotes

* — Morrow’s cap hold would be $915,243 if he opts out.
** — Babbitt receives a partial guarantee of $100,000 if he isn’t waived on or before July 22nd.
*** — Withey receives a partial guarantee of $100,000 if he isn’t waived on or before July 5th, and his salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 22nd.
**** — Roberts’ cap hold would be $915,243 if the Pelicans decline to tender a qualifying offer.
***** — Miller’s cap hold would be $915,243 if the Pelicans decline to tender a qualifying offer.
****** — Southerland’s cap hold would be $816,482 if the Pelicans decline to tender a qualifying offer.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 16th, 2014 at 6:58pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (13th overall)
  • 2nd Round (40th overall)
  • 2nd Round (44th overall)
  • 2nd Round (53rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $66,044,114
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Cap Holds: $7,786,925
  • Total: $73,831,039

The Timberwolves came into the 2013/14 season with postseason hopes, but despite a roster that looked better than any unit the team had put forward since Kevin Garnett‘s departure, Minnesota added to their league-leading streak of seasons without a playoff appearance.  It’s now been 10 years since the Wolves have finished above eighth place in the Western Conference, and Kevin Love, the club’s prized possession, is getting sick of waiting around for the team to improve.  Although the All-Star big man hasn’t explicitly demanded out of Minnesota, reports suggest it’s just a matter of time until he’s gone.

Over half of the NBA has reportedly inquired about Love, so the question for the T’Wolves is which team can put together the best package for one of the game’s best players.  The suitors are plentiful, ranging from the deeply talented (Warriors) to the historically dominant (Celtics and Lakers) to the up-and-coming (Suns) to the downtrodden (Kings).  If Love had his druthers, based on outside speculation and his recent summer getaway, we’d surmise that he wants to wind up Boston.  Of course, while he’ll exert a very real level of control over his destination, he’s not the one in the driver’s seat.

The Wolves reportedly don’t see the C’s as a suitable trade partner for Love.  Boston’s No. 6 pick would likely be at the center of any package offered for the All-Star and while that’s enticing, it might not be good enough for the Wolves, who have their eyes on Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker.  There’s also apparently a beef between Celtics prez Danny Ainge and Saunders, as Ainge feels that the Wolves president/coach undermined former teammate Kevin McHale.  Still, it’s hard to imagine that kind of animosity getting in the way if there’s a deal that makes sense for both sides.

The Kings probably aren’t the team atop Love’s private wish list but they do have assets to make a trade happen.  Their first-round choice at No. 8 is even less appealing than what the C’s have with No. 6, but they’re reportedly willing to part with anyone not named DeMarcus Cousins to make a trade happen.  Beyond that, they’re even willing to give up a significant haul for Love without any assurance that he’ll re-sign when he hits the open market next summer.  That’s undeniably a bold gamble on the Kings’ part, but there’s no question that it gives them an edge in the Love sweepstakes.  Sacramento, depending on whom you listen to, is either a very attractive partner for the Wolves or not a good fit at all.  The list doesn’t stop there, of course: the Bulls, Rockets, Wizards, the Washington Generals, and your little cousin’s eighth grade rec league team are all champing at the bit to get Love.  Frankly, we don’t think the Generals can contend even with Love, but you can’t blame them for trying.

Despite all of the interest out there and Love’s reserved, but very palpable, frustrations with the club, the Wolves are telling anyone that will listen that they intend on keeping him for the long haul.  What will it take to get him to stay put?  That’s a difficult question to answer since, apparently, even the hiring of Phil Jackson to coach the team wouldn’t have convinced him to stay.  Speaking of which, after a long and expansive coaching search, team president Flip Saunders hired himself to man the sidelines, and while some saw that as a move to appease Love, that doesn’t appear to be the case.  Some observers feel that Saunders’ decision to put himself on the bench is simply a move to ensure that Love will be showcased properly as they look to move him in-season.  Besides, if Love was so wild about Saunders, would he be this dissatisfied in the first place?  It’d be an unfair leap to say that there’s major friction between the two men, but Saunders doesn’t seem like a coach who can appease Love.  Winning, of course, could change that in a hurry, but W’s haven’t come easy for this club in a long time.

Even though it doesn’t seem that way, there are decisions to be made by the Wolves this summer that don’t directly involve their All-Star big man.  The Wolves will have to figure out this summer exactly how much Ricky Rubio is worth to them.  When the free agent negotiation period begins on July 1st, agent Dan Fegan will likely push the Wolves to make Rubio their designated player and extend him a five-year max offer.  It’s hard to see the Wolves going for that, however, after the season that he just had.  Rubio dished out the dimes and played solid defense on the perimeter but shot just 38.1% from the floor and averaged 9.5 points per game.  Conversely, Rubio played in all 82 games last season, but he was on the floor for just 98 games over the previous two.  It seems much more likely that the Wolves will offer Rubio a four-year extension, as they did with Love when his contract came up last time.  The guard could sign and take the security of a still lucrative deal, or he can play out the final year of his deal.  It figures to be a difficult decision for Rubio, especially if the club trades Love and starts yet another rebuild.

They’ll also have to make decisions regarding Dante Cunningham, Alexey Shved, and Robbie Hummel.  Cunningham is set to hit the open market after a year in which he was arrested and charged with domestic assault.  He was a decent contributor off the bench, averaging 6.3 PPG and 4.1 RPG in ~20 minutes, but he may not be worth the headaches.  Shved is under contract for one more year at just under $3.2MM, but the Wolves may prefer to buy him out after a disappointing 4.0 PPG effort with 32.1% shooting from the floor.  Hummel is going to hit the open market after the expiration of his one-year, $490K contract.

Love also isn’t the only trade chip on Minnesota’s roster.  Hard-nosed point guard J.J. Barea could have value to another club this summer.  It’s hard to say what Barea could fetch in a deal where he’s the most important piece, but the Cavs were at least considering him in exchange for coveted point guard Jarrett Jack at the trade deadline.  Minnesota could instead theoretically ease the blow of his $4.5MM+ salary through the stretch provision, but that’s reportedly not something they’re interested in doing.

The Wolves could wind up with a top draft pick next week if they trade Love, but as it stands, they’re slated to pick at No. 13 with three more selections in the second round.  Right now it seems likely that Saunders will zero in on a small forward with that pick.  Andrew Wiggins will be long gone at that point but someone like Duke’s Rodney Hood, one of the very best shooters in this year’s class, will probably be there.  If the Wolves aren’t confident in Barea, they could also use this pick to land a one-guard in support of Rubio.  It might be a reach at No. 13, but Syracuse guard Tyler Ennis appears to be moving up draft boards and it’s a safe assumption that he’ll be available when Adam Silver puts the Wolves on the clock.  UConn’s Shabazz Napier, who seems more like a late-first type, should also be there for the taking.  A tough-minded backup big man like Jarnell Stokes would also fit in well on the Wolves bench, with or without Love.  They probably wouldn’t have to use the No. 13 to get the Tennessee standout, but a couple of their second round picks could be parlayed into the late first-rounder they’d probably need.

The rest of the Wolves offseason will hinge on whether they truly feel that they can win Love back over the course of the season.  Right now it seems like a long shot, but they’re prepared to take that risk.  Ultimately, Saunders will probably showcase Love for a few months and move him at the deadline for young players and draft picks to kick-start the rebuild.  For the sake of Wolves fans, we hope it’s a quick turnaround.

Cap footnotes

* — Hummel’s cap hold would be $816,482 if the team declines to tender his qualifying offer.
** — Jeffers’ cap hold would be $915,243 if the team declines to tender his qualifying offer.

Charlie Adams contributed to this post. ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Phoenix Suns

June 13th, 2014 at 2:28pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (14th overall)
  • 1st Round (18th overall)
  • 1st Round (27th overall)
  • 2nd Round (50th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $23,642,318
  • Options: $6,800,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,036,902
  • Cap Holds: $33,997,032
  • Total: $67,476,252

The Suns entered the 2013/14 season as a sleeping giant of sorts, with a wealth of draft picks and future cap flexibility and a warm climate to attract free agents but without a roster necessary to compete in the near term. That giant quickly awoke once the season began, and though Phoenix came up short of a playoff berth, the Suns are positioned to be a team to reckon with for years to come.

The next step in the resurgence of the Suns will almost assuredly come at this year’s draft, as the Suns clutch three first-round picks. GM Ryan McDonough months ago expressed a willingness to package those picks in a trade for a star, and it seems unlikely that Phoenix wants to end up with a logjam of rookies on next year’s roster. The Suns couldn’t find a suitable trade partner for any of their first-rounders at the deadline this year, but draft night will offer ample opportunity. Phoenix also has another pair of extra first-round picks coming its way as soon as next year, giving McDonough plenty of ammunition in his bid to land Kevin Love.

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports identified the Suns as a strong candidate to trade for the Second-Team All-NBA power forward, and multiple reports have confirmed Phoenix’s pursuit. The Wolves are apparently more likely to target veterans than draft picks in a deal for Love, but first-rounders are as coveted as they’ve ever been around the league, so perhaps the Suns could involve a third or fourth team in a deal to bring Love to the desert. As tempting as a package built entirely with first-round picks would be to many teams, the Suns would probably have to include a little more to reel in a superstar like Love, even in a multiteam swap. Alex Len, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, would no doubt be intriguing to several potential trade partners, but his appeal is probably too similar to that of the future first-round picks.

McDonough may ultimately be forced to consider including Goran Dragic in a trade for Love or any other superstar. Dragic is coming off a career year, so there’s reason to think that trading him this summer would be a wise choice. Still, the way he thrived and carried the team in Eric Bledsoe‘s absence this past season suggests that his performance had much to do with a proper fit, and that he may have more value as a member of the Suns than he would with any other team. Minnesota, in particular, would probably have reservations about acquiring Dragic because of the presence of Ricky Rubio. Dragic thrived in the same backcourt with Bledsoe this past season, but such a dual point guard attack might not be so successful in a different context. Plus, the Wolves would risk losing both after next season, when Rubio can become a restricted free agent and Dragic can opt out of his contract.

Still, Love isn’t the only superstar whose name has been in trade chatter of late. McDonough is probably more familiar with the Celtics’ thinking about Rajon Rondo than any other rival GM in the NBA, with the possible exception of fellow former Boston executive Daryl Morey. McDonough is only 13 months removed from having been the assistant GM of the Celtics. Much has changed for Boston in that time, since McDonough’s departure for Phoenix predates the Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett trade. Yet if anyone knows whether Danny Ainge is telling the truth when he denies the countless reports suggesting Rondo is on the trade block, it’s probably McDonough, who spent a decade working under Ainge in the Celtics front office.

These days, McDonough has a star point guard of his own with a pending contract situation. Eric Bledsoe didn’t take long this season to prove his value as a top-of-the-line talent. He’d played only 24 games for the Suns when owner Robert Sarver made it clear that the team would match any offer for him in restricted free agency this summer, presumably up to the maximum salary. Suns president of basketball operations Lon Babby seconded that stance not soon after, even as Bledsoe was sidelined with a torn meniscus in his knee that limited him to 43 games this season, his first as a full-time starter after coming in via trade from the Clippers. The Mavs and Lakers are eyeing runs at the 24-year-old, with the report about the Lakers suggesting that the purple-and-gold are thinking of overpaying for Bledsoe in an effort to pry him from the Suns. It seems like he’s in line for the maximum salary this summer, and perhaps a max offer sheet would test the resolve of the Suns, who might have sent out repeated warnings that they intend to match all offers to try to soften the market for the Rich Paul client. We’ll take Sarver and Babby at their word and presume that Bledsoe ends up back in Phoenix next season, and if he’s not on a max contract, it’ll more than likely be a deal that’s mighty close to it.

McDonough also has key negotiations with P.J. Tucker, Channing Frye and the Morris brothers on the docket. Tucker wants a raise, and indeed he’s merited a significant one from his minimum salary. He nonetheless feels a sense of indebtedness to the franchise that revived his NBA career, one that seemed long since over when he signed with Phoenix in 2012. The Suns wield the hammer of restricted free agency, but his combination of rebounding and outside shooting will no doubt have other clubs again trying the limits of Phoenix’s resolve to match offers. Tucker also makes for an intriguing sign-and-trade candidate if McDonough makes significant progress in his star search.

Frye is clamoring for an extension even as he possesses a player option next season for a higher salary than the market would probably bear on a new contract. McDonough has expressed interest in keeping the 31-year-old around, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Frye decides it’s worth capitalizing on his bounce-back year by adding seasons onto his deal at reduced salaries that guarantee him NBA paychecks for years to come.

Markieff Morris and Marcus Morris are both up for rookie scale extensions this summer, but even though they’re twins who were drafted with back-to-back selections, there’s a decent chance they’ll start down divergent paths this offseason. Markieff proved the more valuable of the pair this season, playing more minutes, scoring at a more efficient rate and recording an 18.4 PER that was significantly higher than the 14.8 mark that Marcus posted. Markieff finished fourth in the balloting for Sixth Man of the Year while Marcus didn’t receive a single vote. Rookie scale extensions usually end up going to players with greater chances of ending up as stars than either of the Morris twins have, but Markieff seems like a candidate to receive a deal akin to the four-year, $14MM extension that the Grizzlies gave Quincy Pondexter last fall. Marcus appears inextricably destined for restricted free agency in a year, whether or not his brother joins him.

The Suns have missed the playoffs four straight years and five out of the last six, and while it’ll be tough to leapfrog any of the Western Conference’s eight playoffs teams this year, the Suns needn’t improve much to make it back to the postseason. Of course, the point of the playoffs isn’t merely to qualify for them, and the months ahead will determine just how fast and how far Phoenix will go.

Cap footnotes

* — Beasley agreed to a buyout when the Suns waived him in September 2013 in which he gave up all but $7MM of the remaining $9MM in guaranteed salary on his contract, which was to run through 2015. The Suns paid off $4,666,667 of that $7MM this past season. The remaining guaranteed salary is spread evenly over the next three seasons via the stretch provision.
** — Smith’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he isn’t waived on or before July 15th.
*** — Christmas’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he isn’t waived on or before July 31th.
**** — Okafor’s cap hold will be equal to the maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more seasons. That figure won’t be determined until July. The figure in place here is last season’s maximum for a veteran of 10 or more years.
***** — Tucker’s cap hold would be $915,243 if the team declined to extend a qualifying offer.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Bucks

June 12th, 2014 at 10:06am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (2nd overall)
  • 2nd Round (31st overall)
  • 2nd Round (36th overall)
  • 2nd Round (48th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $45,080,919
Options: $0
Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,830,486
Cap Holds: $23,613,156
Total: $70,524,561

Former Bucks owner Herb Kohl probably didn’t walk away with many regrets when he sold the team to Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry this spring for $550MM, a record haul for an NBA franchise until Steve Ballmer agreed to pony up $2 billion for the Clippers. Edens and Lasry agreed not to move the team from Milwaukee as a condition of the sale. They also matched the former owner’s $100MM pledge toward the construction of a new arena, helping preserve Kohl’s legacy in Wisconsin, the state he represented in the Senate for 24 years. Still, the Bucks team Kohl leaves behind is a shambles, and the owner’s steadfast commitment to remaining competitive for a playoff spot rather than embarking on a rebuilding project toward loftier goals leaves the club with grim prospects for the future.

Kohl apparently didn’t mean for his tenure as owner to end this way, and he was reportedly so incensed with GM John Hammond this past season that executives around the league figured he would have fired Hammond had he not sold the team. It seems the club’s new ownership is split on committing to Hammond, coach Larry Drew and assistant GM David Morway. Lasry told Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times that all three would return next season while Edens declined to make such a promise. Edens has guaranteed Hammond’s job only through the draft, ostensibly putting pressure on the GM to prove his worth in the next few weeks.

Hammond and the Bucks had middling luck in the lottery, failing to land the No. 1 overall pick but winding up closer to the top than to No. 4, the lowest selection Milwaukee could have ended up with. That means the team is in line for one of Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, widely hailed as the three most prominent stars of the draft. The Bucks are also reportedly high on Dante Exum, but with Hammond’s uncertain future, the chances that Milwaukee would take a chance on the Australian guard seem even more remote than such a surprise pick otherwise would be.

The embattled GM may also elect to make his mark with a significant trade, and it seems as though Larry Sanders is available and drawing interest from the Kings. Another report suggested the Mavericks are in the mix, too, though dealing Sanders at this point would be a case of selling low. The center was a game-changing defensive force during 2012/13, earning a four-year, $44MM extension. The move looks like a mistake now, after a season in which Sanders missed time because of a broken hand he suffered in a nightclub brawl, received a drug suspension, and spent the final month sidelined with a broken orbital bone. Still, the extension seemed like a fair deal at the time. It remains to be seen whether the next four years for Sanders will entail more of the shortcomings of this past season or the vast improvement he showed the year before. Unless a team is willing to place an overwhelming bet that Sanders will repeat or outdo his most productive season, Hammond need not compound his troubles by trading Sanders at the wrong time.

Hammond has plenty of other options for a trade should he seek one. A report from February cast Brandon Knight, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton as the only untouchables on the roster, but presumably the right offer could pry at least Knight and Middleton from Milwaukee. The Kings have reportedly shown interest in Knight, so perhaps the market for the 2011 eighth overall pick, still just 22 years old, will be robust enough to give Hammond some intriguing options. If not, he’ll face a decision about whether to grant Knight a rookie scale extension this summer or let him hit restricted free agency in a year. Middleton is a former second-round pick, and since he’s only on a three-year contract, he can’t sign an extension. His salary for next season won’t be guaranteed until August, but Hammond almost certainly won’t be waiving him to pocket what would be a savings of less than $1MM. Middleton’s 41.4% three-point shooting this season figures to make him attractive to potential trade partners in a market that’s light on shooters.

Antetokounmpo started just 23 games and averaged 6.8 points as a rookie this past season, but the flashes of brilliance that the “The Greek Freak,” still just 19 years old, displayed are enough to compel Hammond to hang on to the gem he unearthed with the 15th pick last June. It’s difficult at this point to assess just what he’ll accomplish in his career, so he seems as reasonable to label an untouchable as anyone on the Bucks.

The ownership change might allow Hammond to deal a player whose name has perhaps been in more trade rumors than any other on the roster the past two seasons. Kohl reportedly saw Ersan Ilyasova as a star in the making, no doubt helping forestall any trade that sent him away. The Rockets reportedly had interest in a trade involving Ilyasova and Omer Asik, the sort of swap that might allow the Bucks to more easily stomach a deal involving Sanders or John Henson. If nothing else, it would clear some salary for next season, as Asik is entering the final year of his contract, while Ilyasova makes $7.9MM in guaranteed salary each season through 2015/16.

The Bucks have more than $45MM in commitments for next season, not counting the No. 2 pick, and they have more than $32MM tied up for 2015/16. There’s wiggle room for them to add a free agent on an eight-figure annual salary this summer. If the Bucks exercise restraint this year, they can accommodate a maximum-salary free agent in 2015. Of course, max salary free agents aren’t exactly clamoring to go to Milwaukee, so perhaps using the cap flexibility to make trades or to sign players to fungible, short-term contracts makes the most sense. Even a long-term deal for an intriguing middle-tier free agent would help if its along the lines of the team’s four-year, $32MM offer sheet to Jeff Teague last summer, one that the Hawks decided to match. Teague’s performance in the playoffs this year demonstrated his value and helped make Hammond’s case as a keen judge of talent, even if the point guard didn’t ultimately wind up in Milwaukee.

Teague’s deal makes a lot more sense than the one that the Bucks gave to another Hawk. Zaza Pachulia‘s three-year, $15.6MM contract stood as a symbol of the team’s stubborn commitment to mediocrity. It’s unclear just how much Kohl had to do with that signing, as much as his fingerprints seemed to be on it, but presuming Hammond is around this summer and Edens and Lasry give their blessing to a more patient approach, it’ll be interesting to see the choices the GM makes.

The new owners no doubt have little sentimentality about the Andrew Bogut trade and what happens with Ekpe Udoh, the last remaining player of the three the Bucks acquired in the swap that sent away the 2005 No. 1 overall pick. Bogut fell short of the lofty expectations that surround top picks, but Udoh, the sixth overall selection in 2010, has been a more profound disappointment. He averaged a career-low 3.4 points per game this season, and while his qualifying offer is lower than it would have been, since he didn’t meet the starter criteria, $4,268,609 still seems too much to lay out for Udoh, who’s already 27 years old. It seems likely that the Bucks will decline to tender his qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent.

The Bucks probably have enough firepower to make the playoffs next season, provided the Eastern Conference stays weak, Sanders returns to form, Antetokounmpo, Middleton and other young players continue to improve, and the No. 2 pick contributes in a significant way. That’s a lot of hypotheticals, but the most significant unknown involves the front office and Hammond’s reaction to the pressure placed on him. Most GMs in his position would scramble to make moves that benefit the short term, the very sort of strategy that put the Bucks in the poor position in which they find themselves. While other harried executives strain to make the playoffs, Hammond’s best moves might be those that, at first, make his team no better.

Cap footnotes

* — Middleton’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 1st.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Sacramento Kings

June 9th, 2014 at 12:41pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (8th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $47,031,882
Options: $19,317,326
Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,830,486
Cap Holds: $11,766,262
Total: $79,945,956

You can say a lot of things about the Kings, but you can’t say they’re not aggressive.  In December of last year, the Kings shipped Greivis Vasquez, John Salmons, Patrick Patterson, and Chuck Hayes north of the border for Rudy Gay and spare parts.  They made that trade even though Gay had become a human punching bag for his U.S. government level of inefficiency and had the ability to flee after the season.  Even though they could go bust on their big gamble, they’re contemplating making an even bigger one.

If dealing for Gay while knowing that he could bounce months later was like playing roulette, gearing up to trade for Kevin Love without any assurances that he’ll re-sign would be like playing high-stakes roulette and craps at the same time.  While other clubs would probably want a wink and a nod from a member of the All-Star’s entourage before making a deal, the Kings have no such reservations.  The Kings have a rabid fan base supporting them and a new arena in the works, but what they don’t have is a proven winner.  Banking on wooing Love to re-sign over the course of the season seems, well, crazy.  On the other hand, one could argue that a small market team has to either make major gambles or tank in order to compete since they are disadvantaged in free agency.  Forking over a package of young talent and draft picks for Love might be ill-advised, but shooting for the moon is a lot more entertaining than a string of sub-30-win seasons.

Even though they’re willing to take that risk, prying Love away from the Wolves won’t be all that simple as there are a number of teams circling like sharks.  Still, according to at least one report, the Kings are the favorites in the Love sweepstakes.  The Kings can build a package around the No. 8 pick, which the Wolves would reportedly use for either Julius Randle or Noah Vonleh.  Beyond that, the Kings are said to be willing to throw in anything not nailed down or named DeMarcus Cousins.  There might not be much of a supporting cast behind them, but a frontcourt of Gay, Cousins, and Love would do an awful lot of damage.  Of course, with the Celtics, Lakers, Knicks, Warriors, Rockets, Cavs and Bulls working the phones, Love may wind up visiting California’s capital just once or twice next season.

So, back to the notable name that is more likely to be in purple and black next season.  Gay seemed poise to take off his coat and stay a while back in January but he now appears to be waffling pretty hard on the matter.  Not only is the small forward unsure of what he’s going to do, he’s unsure of the criteria that he’ll use to make his decision.  Statistically speaking, Gay played the best basketball of his career during his Sacramento stint and one has to wonder if he could flourish the same way in a different system.  He also won’t find teams lining up to throw money at him.  As a player who hasn’t cracked the top ten of Hoops Rumors’ Free Agent Power Rankings, he’d be much better off in the short-term financially if he accepted his $19.3MM deal. Still, money alone won’t get it done and the Kings are bringing in the big guns – Chris Mullin and The Scorelord – to convince him to stay.

On top of that, the Kings also have a big decision to make when it comes to diminutive point guard Isaiah Thomas.  The 5’9″ guard is a restricted free agent this summer and the Kings, unsurprisingly, will extend the $2.875MM qualifying offer to the fan favorite.  Unfortunately for the Kings, their cap situation isn’t an ideal one as they have $47MM on the books without factoring in Gay’s option.  Still, as long as things don’t get too out of hand, the Kings will keep their shoot-first point guard, whom they “think the world of.”

Jason Thompson, meanwhile, is under contract for another three seasons, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if he asks out.   The pride of Rider University signed a five-year, $30MM deal two summers ago when he figured to be a cornerstone of the Kings’ lineup.  This past season, he saw his role decrease to the point where he lost his starting job in March.  The Kings are probably open to moving Thompson for a number of reasons.  Thompson is one of the veteran holdovers from the Geoff Petrie era and seeing as how the club’s new regime deported Salmons and Hayes, it stands to reason that they could do the same with Thompson.  The big man is also making $6MM a season, money that could be better allocated elsewhere.  And, even if Love isn’t Sacramento-bound, they have two other power forward options in the returning Carl Landry and former No. 2 overall pick Derrick Williams (hey, I didn’t say great options, I just said options).  It’s not clear exactly what they could get for him in a deal where he’s the featured piece, though it’s a safe bet that any deal for Love or another similarly high-salaried star would include Thompson in the package.  Teams won’t be lighting up the phones to get him, but he does represent a very realistic reclamation project.

There are, of course, other trade pieces outside of Thompson.  Williams still hasn’t realized his potential (and maybe he never will) , but he’s still only 23 years old and has upside.  With a $6.3MM expiring deal, a team could acquire Williams without making a commitment to him beyond next season.  The cost, in a simple one-for-one trade, could be as little as a second rounder.  The Kings could also free up space by trading Jason Terry, or, more accurately, Terry’s contract.  Unfortunately, the soon-to-be 37-year-old has been slowed down by injuries and could choose to retire or try and come back next season and play limited minutes.  Terry’s deal, which ends after next season, is probably only intriguing to trade suitors as an expiring contract, so Sacramento would likely have to take back long-term money to ship Terry out.

Kings fans got the owner that they wanted, and a shiny new arena where they can cheer on their team is on its way.  Now, they want to see a winner.  Sacramento can do a lot of great things with their core, but they’ll have to augment it in the coming months in order to build a .500+ team for 2014/15.

Cap footnotes

* — If Gay opts out, his cap hold would be the greater of $18,783,379 or the maximum salary for a player with between seven and nine years of experience. That maximum was $16,441,500 this past season, so it’s a near-certainty that Gay’s cap hold would be $18,783,379 if he opts out.
** — Acy’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 25th.
*** — GM Pete D’Alessandro has stated his intention to tender a qualifying offer to Thomas, but if he changes his mind, the cap hold for Thomas would be $915,243.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 8th, 2014 at 6:54pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (1st overall)
  • 2nd Round (33rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $36,189,162
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $10,971,905
  • Cap Holds: $36,566,450
  • Total: $83,727,517

Last June, the Cavs tabbed UNLV forward Anthony Bennett with the first overall pick in part because he was widely regarded as the most NBA-ready prospect at the top of the draft.  So much for that.  Bennett began his NBA career with an ugly scoreless streak and things didn’t get much better from there.  While Bennett still has years and years in front of him to turn things around, Cleveland must be having second thoughts about how he’ll end up   This year, they have the No. 1 pick again and what they do with it will set the tone for next season and beyond.

Will the Cavs go against the grain again?  Last year, there were whispers that Cleveland was considering Bennett but most of us ignored that talk and believed that he would go closer to No. 10 than No. 1.  The consensus this year, of course, is that it’s a three-horse race for the top slot.  Kansas’ Andrew Wiggins has been projected as the first overall pick in this draft for at least three years, but his inconsistency and lack of killer instinct last season has teams concerned.  Teammate Joel Embiid offers a very polished inside game and shot-blocking ability, but his back problems are troubling.  Will Cleveland, fresh off of their botched Andrew Bynum experiment, want to gamble on another 7-footer with serious injury troubles?  That seems questionable, especially when considering that agent Arn Tellem is keeping his medicals under wraps.  Power forward Jabari Parker has also been mentioned as a top pick possibility, but some say he’s falling out of the mix.  Of course, we wouldn’t bet on what the Cavs will do with the pick, but it’s hard to see anyone outside of that top three being in the mix.  Aussie guard Dante Exum could very well stand as the best talent from this class five years from now, but there’s simply no room for him with a starting backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters.

So, while the Cavs have some quality options in front of them, none are free of question marks.  Beyond that, the Cavs are in win-now mode and a 19-year-old rookie may not be the fastest way to contention.  What if the Cavs trade the pick?  They’re bound to find a ripe market and they could theoretically turn the pick into an All-Star caliber player who can elevate them to a top team.  Kevin Love is the hottest name on the market and if the T’Wolves decide to go with (another) reboot, one would think that there’s no better way for them to start off than with the first pick in the draft.  Still, a report from late last week indicated that the Wolves don’t see the Cavs as a good partner for a trade.

Of course, what the Cavs to with the top pick rests heavily on what they intend to do with free agent Luol Deng.  Reports from during the season said that the veteran forward wants out of Cleveland badly.  Meanwhile, the Cavs were only 19-21 with Deng in the lineup for the second half – an improvement over their previous 42 games, but not much better.  The Cavs gave up quite a bit for Deng in terms of draft picks, but the sunk cost fallacy says that Cleveland shouldn’t go chasing a new deal with the 29-year-old just for that reason.  For all his talent, The Man from Sudan isn’t a No. 1 star for any team and a new deal for Deng could call for the Cavs to almost pay him like one.  For a lot of reasons, it seems like a reunion isn’t in the best interest of either party.  If the Cavs feel good about Wiggins at No. 1, we say they should pull the trigger there and let Deng go elsewhere this summer.  They won’t get the entire haul back with a sign-and-trade, but they can recoup some of their losses by going that route.  It doesn’t seem unreasonable for the Cavs to net a first rounder plus a second-round pick in a Deng S&T.

Deng clearly isn’t a No. 1 type but this season Irving’s play at times and obvious dissatisfaction gave off the vibe that he might not be either.  There was speculation that the guard wanted out of Cleveland, despite Irving’s denials, and many said the Cavs were fed up with him too.  However, after a report yesterday from The Plain Dealer’s Terry Pluto, it sounds like we can put any speculation to rest, at least from the team’s end.  The Cavs plan on offering Irving the maximum five-year extension and will do so as soon as they’re allowed on July 1st.  It’s not a guarantee that Irving will accept, but the guard is reportedly happy about the Cavs’ decision to install David Griffin as the permanent GM.  If the Cavs can hire a coach that meshes well with Irving, that would probably go a long way towards convincing him to stay.

Speaking of the coaching search, the Cavs don’t appear to be in any sort of rush, but they could be getting closer to making a hire.  As best as we can tell, there are six candidates at the time of this writing: Vinny Del Negro, Alvin Gentry, Lionel Hollins, Adrian Griffin, Tyronn Lue, and David Blatt.  Del Negro, Hollins, and Gentry all offer previous head coaching experience and Gentry has already been asked back for another interview.  Griffin, one of the first candidates named for the job, and Lue are both up-and-coming assistants who have had head coaching buzz around them for much of the season.   Blatt, of course, is the wild card.  The Maccabi Tel Aviv coach has been considered for assistant jobs elsewhere with Minnesota’s Flip Saunders reportedly seeing him as someone that he can groom to take over the position eventually.  Blatt would be an exciting new hire but owner Dan Gilbert, who is focused on winning now, may prefer to go with an NBA retread in the end.

The Cavs, in theory, could save money by cutting Anderson Varejao since only $4MM of his $9.7MM salary is guaranteed.  If they move on from the longtime Cavs centerpiece, it seems more likely that they’ll trade him, something that the front office is open to.  We’d stop short of saying he’d be expendable, but the Cavs could afford to deal Varejao if they re-sign free agent big man Spencer Hawes.

In a league perpetually starving for competent centers, Hawes figures to be something of a hot commodity this summer with the Hawks and Mavs as possible suitors.  It was said back in April that Griffin would make a strong push to retain the 26-year-old but a recent report has cast doubt on that.  In 27 games (25 starts) for Cleveland last season, Hawes averaged 13.5 PPG and 7.7 RPG with a 16.6 PER, a few notches above his career average.  He could be back in Cleveland if the price is right, but that’s far from a given.

Another notable name that could be elsewhere next season is Dion Waiters.  The Cavs have done their best to quiet down trade speculation around the former No. 4 overall pick but we learned late last week that there has been preliminary trade talk involving Waiters and Tristan Thompson with another team in the lottery that’s looking to move up.  Pairing the top pick with either player, especially Waiters, should net the Cavs a decent haul.  Depending on who you ask, Irving and Waiters aren’t getting along too well, so moving him could be a case of addition by subtraction even though he’s obviously talented.

The Cavs have a different guy at the helm this summer, but things still feel awfully familiar for Cleveland as they hold the No. 1 pick and search for a rapid turnaround.  There’s no denying the talent that the Cavs’ core possesses and there’s no reason why they can’t find their way to the playoffs with the right additions.

Cap footnotes

* — Dellavedova’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 25th.
** — Deng’s cap hold will be the lesser of $21,412,500, which is 150% of his 2013/14 salary, or the maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more seasons, which won’t be determined until after the July Moratorium. The number here is this past season’s max.

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