Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Offseason Preview

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Clippers

June 6th, 2014 at 8:51am CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (28th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $66,322,769
  • Options: $4,530,294
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $5,398,490
  • Cap Holds: $2,755,286
  • Total: $79,006,839

Despite what the news might lead you to believe, the Clippers have things on their agenda that don’t concern embattled owner Donald Sterling.  Yes, it’s true, the Clippers front office, led by coach Doc Rivers, has a whole to-do list that has nothing to do with this spring’s TMZ bombshell.  The Clippers have needs to fill and while they don’t have a ton of cap space to do it, they will have their opportunities to improve.

The Clippers’ 2013/14 season ended at the hands of the Thunder in the second round and while there’s not much shame in losing to a Kevin Durant-led team, that’s no consolation to the Clippers, who, rightfully, had title aspirations.  Part of their downfall came from an inability to keep KD in check (he averaged 33.2 PPG in the series, a tick higher than what he averaged during his MVP season) and Russell Westbrook had a field day as well.  It’ll take more than a quick fix to slow down someone like Durant, but finding a strong perimeter defender would go a long way towards that effort.  The Clippers’ trade of Eric Bledsoe badly hurt their defense on the outside and they’ve yet to fill that void.

The small ball lineup that worked so well with Bledsoe in 2012/13 didn’t run as smoothly last season. The offense continued to put up points but the team struggled in terms of rebounding and defense.  None of the small forwards that the Clippers tried out – including Danny Granger, Hedo Turkoglu, and Stephen Jackson – were successful at playing as an undersized four.  If the Clippers intend to continue playing with a smaller lineup, and there’s no reason to think they won’t, they’ll have to find a small forward with size and grit who can help open up the offense without being a liability elsewhere. That leads us to one of the more intriguing storylines of the offseason: the possible reunion of Rivers and his former star pupil, Paul Pierce.

Pierce was the key to the Nets’ small ball success last season and is hitting the open market at a time where there is total uncertainty around teammate Kevin Garnett and the team as a whole.  If Garnett, who is slated to make $12MM next season, retires, many have theorized that Pierce will leave in search of familiarity, whether that’s joining up with Rivers in L.A. or ending his career in Boston.  The Nets, meanwhile, may not be the biggest basketball mess in New York City, but they’re a mess nonetheless.  Deron Williams just underwent double ankle surgery, free agents Shaun Livingston and Andray Blatche could very well bolt, and oft-injured center Brook Lopez is returning to a lineup that might be better off without him.  Will the 36-year-old leave the land of plaid shirts and ironic mustaches behind?  Pierce doesn’t have any pre-dating ties to Brooklyn, but his work ethic endeared him to scores of Nets fans who probably weren’t paying attention when Pierce was enemy No. 1 to the team while they were in New Jersey.  He also ended the season with a bad taste in his mouth after his mouth wrote a check to LeBron James that his behind couldn’t cash.  Avoiding a showdown with LeBron until the Finals would be the easy route; staying with the Nets, clashing with him in the conference semifinals or finals, and coming out on top would mean total redemption.  And, oh yeah, the Nets can give him more money, but after banking $300MM+ over the course of his career, he’s not exactly starving.  We’d venture to say that the Nets are still the frontrunners, but the Clippers have to be a very appealing option for Pierce, especially if KG hangs ’em up.

The Clippers could also use some shooting reinforcements.  The Bledsoe deal that allowed for J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley to come to L.A. should have given them all the outside shooting they needed, but things didn’t quite work out that way.  Redick played what was maybe the best basketball of his career with career-highs of 15.2 PPG and 45.5% shooting from the floor plus 39.5% from downtown…when he was healthy.  That wasn’t the case for much of the season, as he played just 47 games thanks to different injuries.  It was a similar story for Dudley as injuries slowed him down and he ultimately lost his starting job to Matt Barnes due to his slipping play.  So what can the Clippers do?  Sharpshooters like Anthony Morrow, Mike Miller, and Trevor Ariza (he shot 40.7% from downtown this year, despite a 32.5% average in previous seasons) are available on the open market.  They could also bring in the aforementioned Pierce to kill two birds with one stone with his size and shooting ability.

The Clips can make additions with their non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which will allow them to sign any free agent to a contract with a starting salary as high as $5.3MM, but there’s little flexibility outside of that.  Without significant wiggle room, the Clippers’ draft pick at No. 28 takes on a little extra importance.  If they want a shooter with that pick, it might be slim pickins as Rodney Hood and Nik Stauskas will be long gone, unless they rob a bank in the next three weeks, and the pool of first-round caliber shooters is pretty shallow.  They could instead use the pick to improve their front court situation and find a big body to help spell DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin.  Tennessee’s Jarnell Stokes, who spoke with Hoops Rumors back in April, is rising fast up draft boards but could be available at No. 28.  Stokes is a bit undersized at 6’9″, but he brings high energy and very tenacious rebounding.  Baylor sophomore Isaiah Austin offers rim protection and should also be available in that range, though his lack of physical strength and vision troubles are worrisome.

When it comes to their own free agents, the Clippers would surely like to retain veteran guard Darren Collison, who will decline his one-year player option.  The 26-year-old averaged 11.4 points in a career-low 25.9 minutes per game in 2013/14 and was called upon to make 35 starts thanks to the injuries in the Clippers’ starting backcourt.  Keeping him could be easier said than done, however, as the Clippers only hold his non-bird rights, meaning that they can only pay him 120% of last season’s paltry salary.  Re-signing Collison likely means dipping into the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, which they may choose to allocate elsewhere.

Fellow backup guard Jamal Crawford figures to be back and while it’s possible that some players will be anxious to leave L.A. in the wake of this year’s fiasco, the veteran has already come out and said that the ownership issues won’t dissuade him from returning.  Of course, the Clippers are unlikely to waive his non-guaranteed deal, so he probably wouldn’t have much of a choice to begin with.  Now that the messy situation has finally been resolved – we hope – with Steve Ballmer’s purchase, it stands to reason that no one will hesitate to stay with or join the Clippers.

The Staples Center’s other tenants are armed with Microsoft money now, but they’ll be  restricted this summer as they try to build around their talented core.  Still, with the right free agent pickup, a good selection at No. 28, and good health, the Clippers can put themselves at the top of the Western Conference next season.

Cap footnotes

* — Collison’s cap hold would be $2,280,000 if he opts out, as he reportedly intends to do.
** — Granger’s cap hold would be $915,243 if he opts out.
*** — The cap hold for Davis would be $915,243 if he opts out.
**** — Crawford’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
***** — Green’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 1st.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Lakers

June 5th, 2014 at 1:26pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (7th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $34,116,243
  • Options: $1,227,985
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $915,243
  • Cap Holds: $57,286,538
  • Total: $93,546,009

The summer ahead for the Lakers will be unlike any the franchise has ever faced. The purple-and-gold are coming off their worst season since before they were the purple-and-gold, having only finished with an inferior winning percentage once, in 1957/58, as the Minneapolis Lakers. That bunch of Lakers took Elgin Baylor with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1958 draft and made the Finals in 1959, but chances are the team won’t be adding a Hall-of-Famer with the seventh overall pick this month.

The pick is just one of several priorities for GM Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss, the team’s co-owner and executive vice president in charge of basketball operations. The Lakers are conducting a methodical coaching search that’s threatening to extend past the draft and into free agency, when the team will have to rebuild a roster with just three players on guaranteed contracts for next season. Kobe Bryant, empowered by a two-year, $48.5MM extension that won’t kick in until next season, excoriated management earlier this spring, insisting that he has “not one lick” of patience for another losing season. Bryant later backed off some of his remarks, expressing support for the organization, but no one still with the franchise is more of a symbol for the Lakers than he is. His words will echo throughout the summer, even as Kupchak downplays Bryant’s influence on the team’s coaching search.

Indeed, Bryant might not have a direct effect on the team’s decision, but Kupchak pointed to the ability to get the most out of Bryant as a top priority as the team sifts through its coaching options. Mike Dunleavy, Byron Scott, Alvin Gentry and Lionel Hollins have received interviews, and while there’s dispute over whether the team’s discussion about the head coaching position with assistant coach Kurt Rambis constituted an interview, it’s clear that he’s a candidate for the job. Still, those five aren’t necessarily the front-runners, and more interviews appear likely. In other years, when more obvious choices were present and the Lakers fortunes were brighter, the search might not move so slow, but with Phil Jackson ensconced as Knicks team president and serious doubts surrounding the roster, there is no easy answer.

The same could be said of the team’s approach to free agency. LeBron James seems increasingly likely to remain with the Heat for at least one more year. Carmelo Anthony is thinking of taking a pass on free agency, but the Lakers aren’t that high on him, anyway. There’s mutual interest with Chris Bosh, but he says he’s staying in Miami, too. The Lakers have considered a bloated offer for Eric Bledsoe, but the Suns intend to match whatever comes their way for the restricted free agent. League executives reportedly believe the Lakers are among the teams most likely to throw a max offer at Greg Monroe, but he, too, is a restricted free agent, and Pistons boss Stan Van Gundy has been speaking highly of him. There’s been little chatter connecting the Lakers to fellow restricted free agent Gordon Hayward, and he seems most likely to return to Utah. Dwyane Wade probably won’t leave Miami, and even if he does, the Lakers already have an aging shooting guard with mounting injury woes. The team apparently isn’t high on Kyle Lowry, and while the Lakers like Luol Deng, they’re wary of overpaying him. Zach Randolph pointed to the Lakers, among others, for their tradition of loyalty when he was upset over trade rumors this season, but he and the Grizzlies are in preliminary talks on an extension. That accounts for all 10 players in the latest Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings, casting serious doubt over whether the Lakers will use their ample cap flexibility to pull off a marquee signing this summer.

Kevin Love and perhaps Rajon Rondo loom as stars obtainable via trade, but the competition for Love is fierce and the Celtics seem more focused on adding stars around Rondo than dealing him away. The Lakers have sign-and-trade fodder, a middling lottery pick, and little else to offer in exchange, making it difficult to envision them coming up with an offer that’s attractive enough for a rival team to part with its star. The quickest path back to contention probably involves waiting for next summer, when Love, Rondo, and a host of other enviable names can hit free agency, but the willingness of Bryant to buy into that idea is a questionable prospect, at best. That’s no doubt playing into the team’s coaching search, as Kupchak and Buss seek someone able to manage Bryant’s moodiness during a non-contending season in a way that doesn’t poison the locker room. Bryant could just as easily serve as a model of passion and preparation for whomever the team drafts at No. 7, so getting the best out of Bryant off the court will be as important as getting the best out of him on it.

Power forwards are clustered within range of the seventh pick, with names like Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh, Dario Saric and Aaron Gordon likely to be in the mix. Former coach Mike D’Antoni might have liked to have seen the team shy away from traditional fours, but the position is a need if the Lakers are to return to a conventional attack. Point guard Marcus Smart is interspersed among that bunch, but the Lakers already have Kendall Marshall, who’s yet to turn 23 and is just two years removed from having been the 13th overall pick. His 8.8 assists per game in 54 contests would have been tied for the second most in the league had he played a full season. There’s little need for the Lakers to upgrade at his position.

The necessity for a big man is much greater, and that becomes even more so if Pau Gasol heads elsewhere. Gasol has gone back and forth about his unrestricted free agency this summer, and his latest comments put the Lakers in the mix for him along with the Grizzlies, Bulls and Spurs. The resignation of Mike D’Antoni removed a likely barrier to his willingness to re-sign, and that was after Bryant pegged the chances that the Spanish 7-footer would stay at 80% this past March. Nonetheless, 50% appears a more realistic figure, and even that might be too high. Jordan Hill and Chris Kaman also appear less than likely to return, putting pressure on the team to re-sign Ryan Kelly and aggressively seek big men from outside the organization.

The team has no such problem with perimeter players. The Lakers and Nick Young have mutual interest in a return, as do the team and Jodie Meeks. The same can be said for the Lakers and Jordan Farmar, and Wesley Johnson believes the team reciprocates his desire to re-sign. There’s also a chance, however faint, that Steve Nash will contribute in some significant way to the team next year. The Lakers have little need to use the stretch provision to waive Nash and reduce his cap hit unless the team’s options in free agency improve drastically, and indeed the team plans on keeping the 40-year-old under contract. Stretching his deal would compromise the team’s cap space for the summer of 2015, and the Lakers need not extend the pain of what’s already proven a burdensome arrangement.

Buss said in October 2012 that the Lakers wanted to make a “splash” in the summer of 2014, but it was at about that point that fortunes for the franchise suddenly went south. The same verbiage was used in regard to the team’s plans for its coaching search, but it seems less likely by the day that the team will hire anyone with jaw-dropping credentials. The glitz and glamour surrounding the Lakers may never vanish, but the winning has. The chasm wasn’t as deep between Finals appearances in 2004 and 2008, but Bryant nearly forced his way out before management proved adept at building the team back to contention. Bryant’s ability to remember that experience will have much to do with how well the Lakers are able to climb back toward the familiar top.

Cap footnotes

* — Young’s cap hold would be $915,243 if he were to opt out, an outcome that appears likely.
** — Gasol’s cap hold will be the lesser of $20,250,143, which is 150% of his 2013/14 salary, or the maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more seasons, which won’t be determined until after the July Moratorium.
*** — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Harper and others listed in parentheses below his name technically remain on the books for the Lakers.
**** — The cap hold for Brooks is equivalent to the greatest amount the Lakers can offer him for next season. Because the Celtics declined their fourth-year team option on Brooks before the season, the Lakers aren’t allowed to re-sign him for a 2014/15 salary that’s more than he would have earned on that option. That’s true even though Brooks was traded twice, first to the Warriors and then the Lakers.
***** — The cap hold for Bazemore would be $915,243 if the Lakers decline to tender his qualifying offer.
****** — The cap hold for Kelly would be $816,482 if the Lakers decline to tender his qualifying offer.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

June 4th, 2014 at 11:00am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options 

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (25th overall)
  • 2nd Round (42nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $56,983,489
  • Options: $3,098,041
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,873,094
  • Cap Holds: $3,100,294
  • Total: $67,054,918

In October 2012, just 20 months ago, the Rockets had one of the worst rosters in the league, having skinned the team of five of its top six scorers from the 2011/12 season. Two superstar acquisitions later, the Rockets enter the summer of 2014 with some sense of disappointment over a first-round exit. The prolific duo of James Harden and Dwight Howard came together quickly, but Houston still lacks the third star that’s required to build the prototypical title contender. GM Daryl Morey pulled off the cap gymnastics necessary to accommodate a max deal for Howard last summer, but finding another marquee player this time around will require even more challenging payroll manipulation.

The Rockets enter the summer with commitments that are about $6.2MM short of the projected $63.2MM salary cap. That only covers seven players and doesn’t take into account the player option for Francisco Garcia, who denied a report last month that he intends to opt out. It also doesn’t factor in the nearly $1MM on Houston’s books for the 25th overall pick, but that’s an asset the team would probably have little trouble shedding if it wants to. Even if Garcia opts out and the Rockets dump their first-rounder, they’re set to enter free agency with no more than $3.7MM in cap flexibility, thanks to the roster charges equivalent to the rookie minimum salary they would incur for having fewer than 12 players under contract. That figure also leaves out the final year of Chandler Parsons‘ contract, a thorny issue that will force the team into one unappealing set of consequences or another.

Morey certainly can’t begrudge his deal with Parsons, which has proved such a bargain over the past three years that it’s become a model for others like it around the league. The Rockets have the opportunity to enjoy another season of a starting-caliber small forward for less than $1MM, but picking up the option would put Parsons on a path toward unrestricted free agency next summer. The Rockets have reportedly decided to decline the option to allow themselves the chance to make Parsons a restricted free agent this summer, giving Morey the final say on where the former University of Florida standout ends up next season. The decision also plays a critical role in the team’s ability to sign other free agents this summer and next.

Picking up the option would impinge upon the team’s already limited flexibility for the summer ahead and invite bidders who’d be scared off by Houston’s ability to match offers this summer to jump into the Parsons sweepstakes next year. Setting Parsons free at the end of the month would allow the Rockets to simply take a pass on re-signing him if another small forward like Carmelo Anthony came calling, but it seems more likely that Houston would end up re-signing Parsons to a long-term, market-rate contract. Doing so would add to Houston’s books for the summer of 2015, the very time for which most other teams are clearing money for an enticing class of free agents. This is no easy call.

Complicating the pursuit of next summer’s free agent class is the possibility that Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo and others end up in their next destinations via trade before they ever hit the market. That’s why Morey isn’t idly waiting for the burdensome contracts of Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin to expire next summer. The GM says he doesn’t expect a deal to come together involving one or both of them, but in the same interview with Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle, he restated his commitment to an aggressive search for upgrades. A more recent report indicated the team is shopping Lin and Asik in an effort to clear room for Anthony. Still, I’d be surprised if Houston pulled the trigger on any such deal at any point before it became clear that Anthony or another such talent could be had. Knicks team president Phil Jackson‘s assertion that ‘Melo is at least thinking about opting in for next season rather than hitting free agency is a caution flag for teams that have been eyeing him, even if he’s still more likely than not to opt out, as he’s said on many occasions that he’ll do.

Trading either Asik, Lin or both in any deal that would clear significant cap space would be remarkably challenging. Few teams are willing and able to absorb nearly $8.4MM cap hits without giving up salary in return, and the balloon payments for Asik and Lin make it doubly hard for the Rockets to find trade partners. Each of them is due $14,898,938 in actual paychecks next season, as I explained a while back when I examined how such backloaded deals affect trades. There might be some charm for the Knicks in bringing Lin back for old time’s sake as part of a sign-and-trade for Anthony, but it seems doubtful that Jackson would agree to help a team with little other recourse to clear the necessary cap room for ‘Melo. Most teams would have more interest in Asik, whom the Hawks are reportedly pursuing. Still, trading only Asik in exchange for assets that don’t add to Houston’s payroll for next season would give Houston about $12.6MM worth of cap flexibility at best, not nearly enough to get into the running for ‘Melo. That almost certainly wouldn’t be enough to woo reported targets LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dirk Nowitzki, who appear even less available than Anthony.

Trades might allow an easier path to improvement, but while Love represents the primary trade target for just about every team, Houston doesn’t appear to be Love’s preferred destination. The Rockets seemed interested in Rondo at the trade deadline, though talks apparently never got started. The Celtics were one of the teams involved in Morey’s attempted Asik auction in December, but Morey would have to offer more than his backup center to pry an elite point guard from the hands of Danny Ainge, his old boss. The Celtics seem much more focused on convincing Rondo to stay rather than preparing for his departure, so the Rockets would probably meet a dead end down this avenue, too.

The prudent path for the Rockets this summer appears to be a quiet one, as unfulfilling as it might be for the creative, trade-happy Morey. The Rockets can have the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception at their disposal if they decide to operate above the cap, and that can serve as a handy tool to help the team upgrade its defense with a rotation-caliber player. Houston finished just 12th in points allowed per 100 possessions this season, per NBA.com, in spite of the pairing of All-Defensive Second Team selection Patrick Beverley and Howard, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, in the starting lineup. Oklahoma City free agent Thabo Sefolosha would seem like a fit for the Rockets if he rediscovers the stroke he had when he hit 42.2% of his three-point attempts in 2011/12 and 2012/13, though there have been no reports linking the longtime member of the Thunder to Houston.

The Rockets have only about $39MM on the books for 2015/16, so there’s plenty of reason for the team to exercise caution as it spends this summer. Flashy names like Love and Rondo may already be in their long-term homes by this time next year, but Goran Dragic, Paul Millsap, David West, Monta Ellis, Marc Gasol and Al Jefferson are among the others who can become unrestricted free agents in 2015. Morey has quickly turned the Rockets into a Western Conference heavy. The question is whether he’ll have the gumption to wait for just the right finishing touch that can turn the team into a true contender.

Cap footnotes

* — Garcia’s cap hold would be $915,243 if he turns down his player option.
** — Parsons’ qualifying offer would be $3,270,004 if the Rockets decline his option, as they reportedly intend to do. That figure would also be the amount of his cap hold. If Houston declines the option and doesn’t tender the qualifying offer, his cap hold would be $1,760,350.
*** — Daniels’ qualifying offer and cap hold would be $1,016,482 if the team turns down its option. His cap hold would be $816,482 if the team doesn’t tender the qualifying offer.
**** — The cap hold for Hamilton is equivalent to the greatest amount Houston can offer him for next season. Because the Nuggets declined their fourth-year team option on Hamilton before the season, the Rockets, who acquired him via trade, aren’t allowed to re-sign him for a 2014/15 salary that’s more than he would have earned on that option.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Boston Celtics

June 3rd, 2014 at 9:59am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (6th overall)
  • 1st Round (17th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $44,705,226
Options: $3,800,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary: $7,834,024
Cap Holds: $55,165,187
Total: $111,504,437

The Celtics are just a year removed from a landmark trade, and there is plenty of chatter that another is on its way this summer. The exodus of Kevin Garnett and career Celtic Paul Pierce was an wrenching acknowledgement that the most recent era of Celtics championship contention is over, and the team stands at the precipice of either beginning a new one as soon as next season or a further dismantling the 2008 championship team.

Rajon Rondo on Monday reiterated comments he made in January, when he said that wouldn’t mind spending the next decade in Boston. While he made his initial remarks in the context of talking about an extension he, as most elite NBA veterans would be, is unlikely to sign, there’s plenty of reason to think he’ll be sticking around. Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge seems to think so, having spent the months that followed the departure of Pierce and Garnett denying his involvement in trade talks surrounding the point guard. Ainge initially claimed that no team had made any offer for Rondo, though he eventually relented and acknowledged there have been inquiries about the All-Star point guard. A recent report suggested the Celtics are more open to trading Rondo than they’ve ever been, but Ainge once more went on the offensive. The Celtics boss suggested that as long as the 28-year-old sees progress toward another era of contention, he’ll be willing to re-sign when his contract expires after next season.

That makes the summer ahead remarkably important for Ainge, and implicates a fellow member of Rondo’s 2015 free agent class. Kevin Love, even before his high-profile visit to Boston this past weekend, reportedly viewed the city as more and more of an intriguing destination. Soon after the report of his interest surfaced, Ainge spoke of a willingness to trade for a star without the guarantee that he’d sign an extension. Ainge didn’t mention Love by name, as doing so would probably have constituted tampering, but Love would seem to fit the profile. Still, Ainge’s wording is key in other regards. There’s little chance that Love, who could demand max money on the open market, would under any circumstances agree to an extension, which under collective bargaining agreement rules couldn’t approach the value of a new contract. Love could give the Celtics assurances that he’d sign a new deal or opt in for 2015/16, and Ainge didn’t say he’d be willing to trade for a star unwilling to make either such commitment. Boston is nonetheless squarely in the mix for Love, and he’d surely be much more likely to stick with the team for the long-term if Rondo does the same. So, the pressure’s on Ainge to make the team as attractive as possible for both or risk winding up with neither.

There’s much greater flexibility in the coming year for Boston, which spent much of 2013/14 flush against the tax line. The Celtics have finished their guaranteed salary commitment to Keith Bogans, whose player-friendly mid-level contract was one of the spoils of the Pierce/Garnett trade. Bogans and the team parted ways in January, and Ainge indicated then that it was more likely he’d wind up as a trade chip in the summer than at the deadline. Indeed, rival clubs looking to clear cap space for 2014/15 can acquire Bogans and wipe him completely from their books in exchange of an asset of some kind, and there’s a distinct possibility that Ainge will make such a move a part of a larger swap to help make salaries match. Many teams signed players to multiyear contracts with non-guaranteed salary for next season this spring, but Ainge and Boston were already in possession of one of the largest such trade-market weapons.

Chris Johnson, Chris Babb and Phil Pressey are on smaller non-guaranteed deals, and while the Celtics can use those contracts tools in some manner just as with the Bogans deal, the trio have varying degrees of value as developing talent, so they’re less likely to be trade fodder. Ainge has plenty of other arrows in his quiver as he surveys the market for trades that can set off “fireworks,” to use a term that Ainge and owner Wyc Grousbeck have made a favorite. Ainge has said a sign-and-trade involving Kris Humphries is a consideration even though the team and agent Arn Tellem engaged in preliminary talks about a new deal that would keep the 29-year-old in Boston. Ainge even hinted that he’d look for a sign-and-trade that would benefit Humphries financially, suggesting that the Celtics might wind up at the other end of a Bogans-like transaction this summer in which Humphries receives an outsized contract to serve as trade ballast. The former Net is just two seasons removed from averaging 13.8 points and 11.0 rebounds per game, so he wouldn’t be unattractive to a contending team, whether that’s Boston in the event of a quick turnaround or some other club, as Zach Links of Hoops Rumors examined.

The Celtics possess a gigantic, $10,275,136 trade exception that’s a vestige of Pierce’s salary, and the size of it plus the July 12th expiration date suggests that Ainge won’t hesitate to use it in the weeks ahead. The exception allows Boston to accommodate a salary that’s equal to or less than that amount plus $100K without giving up any salary in return. The C’s have just $48.5MM in commitments for next season, taking into account Joel Anthony‘s apparent decision to opt in, but dipping below the cap would take away the Pierce trade exception, among other key tools.

That bodes well for Avery Bradley, since the Celtics wouldn’t have cap space to sign a replacement. Bradley reportedly turned down a four-year, $24MM extension offer last year, but there’s mutual interest in a new deal between the Celtics and the Mitchell Butler client as his restricted free agency approaches. Bradley seemed to want $8MM salaries last fall, and a career year, including $39.5% three-point shooting that demonstrated he’s more than just a defender, might have him seeking more. The Celtics will no doubt be wary of the projected $77MM tax line, and too large a contract for Bradley might hinder the team’s pursuit of flashier names. Bradley said he’d “love” a new deal in Boston, but he might have to turn down larger offers from other teams to make it happen.

Jerryd Bayless would like to stay with the Celtics, too, and while Brad Stevens is a fan, the backup guard will likely be a secondary priority for Ainge and company. The C’s have only his Early Bird rights, though it’s doubtful a team will exceed the roughly $5.5MM that those rights will allow Boston to pay him next season, even though he, too, shot 39.5% from three-point territory this season and averaged double-figure scoring for just the second time in his career.

Such a coterie of unknowns will probably lead the Celtics to draft the best available talent rather than the best fit for the team with the sixth and 17th overall picks this month, assuming one or both of those selections don’t wind up in a trade. Power forwards Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh, Dario Saric and Aaron Gordon crowd the scene of those likely to be available at No. 6, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ainge draft one of those prospects even though the Celtics already have a glut of four-men. Wing players dominate the strongest possibilities at No. 17, and our Alex Lee has Boston coming away with Randle and Rodney Hood in the latest Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.

Projecting what the Celtics roster will look like a month from now, much less at the start of next season, is a tall order. Ainge has the gunpowder necessary to set off a fireworks display of blockbuster trades as impressive as any we’ll see on the Fourth of July. No one seems more eager for the show to start than Rondo, but the summer will amount to a dud if Ainge can’t find another team in possession of a match.

Cap footnotes

* — Anthony reportedly intends to opt in.
** — Pressey’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 15th.
*** — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why Krstic and others listed in parentheses below his name technically remain on the books for the Celtics.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Orlando Magic

June 1st, 2014 at 10:09pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

  • No. 4 pick ($3,326,700)
  • Fran Vazquez ($1,898,300)*********
  • No. 12 pick ($1,803,400)
  • E’Twaun Moore ($1,148,163 – QO)***********
  • (Jeremy Richardson $915,243)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (4th overall)
  • 1st Round (12th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $33,448,634
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $12,463,777
  • Cap Holds: $9,091,806
  • Total: $55,004,217

While a lot of the teams that struggled last season are dreaming of a playoff berth, the Magic have a different timetable than most.  Orlando, coming off of a 23-59 season, isn’t expecting a major transformation in 2014/15 and while they’d surely like to make the postseason, they know that the road back to contention may have to be a bumpy one for the next couple of years.

That’s not to say that Magic fans don’t have reason for optimism.  Orlando has a promising young core featuring rookie Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic, and Tobias Harris, and their continued development alone should mean an improvement over last year’s dismal mark.  However, Orlando’s offseason moves will mean the difference between a five game bump and significant steps forward.

The Magic’s main problem in 2013/14 was a matador defense (Ole!) that allowed 104.6 points per 100 possessions.  Their defensive lapses can’t be pinpointed to one player or one unit, but we can start the finger pointing with the front court.  Orlando has just one real shot blocking threat in Kyle O’Quinn and that’s not enough to keep anyone at bay.  The easy solution, after looking at O’Quinn’s stat sheet, would be to play him more than ~17 minutes a night.  However, his offensive shortcomings mean that starters minutes would be a bad idea.  Arron Afflalo and Oladipo were solid defenders on the outside last season, but they’ll need some big bodies behind them to keep opponents honest.

Speaking of O’Quinn’s offense, or lack thereof, it’d be great for Orlando if they could get a big man that can make an impact on both ends of the floor.  If the ping pong balls went the Magic’s way, rather that the Cavs’, they could have an easy fix in Kansas big man Joel Embiid.  Unfortunately for the Magic, they’ll be picking fourth.  It’s not a bad consolation prize, especially in this year’s draft, but it seems like the KU big man won’t be on the board for them, unless his medicals leak out and appear questionable.

So, if Embiid is out, who is in play for the Magic at No. 4?  Australian guard Dante Exum seems to be getting rave reviews from everyone and if he gets past the Sixers at No. 3, he could give Orlando their one-guard of the future.  Exum is a dynamic athlete who can score but isn’t purely a chucker.  The 19-year-old has great court vision and the ability to dish on offense and his 6’6″ frame should allow him to be a pesky defender at the NBA level.

Exum’s arrival, or the acquisition of any promising young point guard, could spell the end for Jameer Nelson‘s time in pinstripes.  The veteran guard is set to make $8MM in 2014/15, but he’s guaranteed only $2MM, so the Magic could let him go elsewhere without much penalty.  Orlando has until July 15th to decide his fate: that’s when his deal goes from $2MM guaranteed to fully guaranteed at $8MM.

If the Magic tab Exum at No. 4, they can get another talented international prospect at No. 12 in Jusef Nurkic.  Nurkic, also 19, would give the Magic a big presence, serious strength, and a 7’2″ wingspan: just the type of enforcer that they can use on defense.  The very fair knock on him is that he’s something of an unknown.  Due to conditioning issues, the Bosnian saw limited minutes last season, averaging 15.4 minutes in Eurocup action and 16.6 minutes per night in the Adriatic league.  Even with his question marks, teams have been drooling over Nurkic’s upside as his stock has shot up from a mid-to-late second round prospect to a very real lottery possibility.  If the Magic intend to be patient with their timetable, they can afford to take the time to help the center realize his full potential.

Another major area of need for Orlando is outside shooting.  The aforementioned Exum would give them a scorer, but not a three-point shooter.  At No. 12, the Magic could be in line for Michigan standout Nik Stauskas or sharpshooting Duke small forward Rodney Hood.  Stauskas is currently pegged to go No. 13 in DraftExpress’ mock.  Hood is slotted at No. 15, but he told me in May that he could go as high as No. 6.  That guarantees very little, but the possibility exists that he won’t be an option for Orlando with their second first-rounder.

Of course, with just ~$33.4MM in guaranteed salary for next season, the Magic aren’t just confined to the draft.  They can turn to the free agent market to get impact veterans at their need positions and this summer is ripe with quality options.  No, LeBron won’t be taking his talents to Epcot, but one has to think that the Magic could come away with a Luol Deng, Kyle Lowry, or Lance Stephenson, even if a recent report indicated that such a move would be a “shock“.

Dwight Howard is long gone and Orlando’s title contention hopes are as well – at least for now.  With the right moves and responsible spending, the Magic can position themselves for a small step forward in 2014/15 and a big leap the following year.

Cap footnotes

* — The Magic waived Davis in February despite guaranteed salary remaining on his contract through 2014/15.
** — The Magic waived Harrington in August 2013 despite partially guaranteed salary remaining on his contract through 2014/15.
*** — Nelson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 15th.
**** — Maxiell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 10th.
***** — Price’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 10th.
****** — Lamb’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 1st.
******* — O’Quinn’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 15th.
******** — Dedmon’s salary becomes guaranteed for $250,000 if he’s not waived on or before opening night.
********* — The Magic hold the draft rights to Vazquez, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 11th overall pick in 2005, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 11th overall pick in this year’s draft. The Magic can erase it from their books and still retain the draft rights to Vazquez if he and the team agree in writing that he won’t sign during the 2014/15 season.
*********** — Moore’s cap hold would be $915,243 if the team declined to tender his qualifying offer.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Pistons

May 30th, 2014 at 1:31pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (38th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $33,413,230
  • Options: $7,000,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,764,645
  • Cap Holds: $35,836,135
  • Total: $78,014,010

The Pistons took the first steps toward erasing the painful memories of the poor decisions that marked the final seasons of Joe Dumars‘ reign as president of basketball operations when they hired Stan Van Gundy to both coach and run the front office. Just six days later, Van Gundy was greeted with an unfortunate reminder of just how deep a hole the franchise is in, as Detroit slipped to ninth in the draft lottery and had to give up its first-round pick to Charlotte as a result. The opportunity to draft a shooter would have come in handy amid a market in which shooting is so highly valued, and hopes for a quick turnaround took a major hit. Still, the Pistons were going to have to give up a first-round pick to the Hornets anyway as a result of the Ben Gordon/Corey Maggette trade, and the clearing of that obligation gives Van Gundy greater flexibility to make wiser trades with the team’s future first-rounders. It also gives the first-time executive a clearer view of the job ahead of him.

The restricted free agency of Greg Monroe looms as an early test of Van Gundy’s front office meddle. There are conflicting reports about Van Gundy’s willingness to spend on the up-and-coming big man, though he spoke with Monroe and agent David Falk within a day of his hiring. Others appear just as ready to talk with Falk and Monroe as soon as they get the chance to do so on July 1st. The Hornets and Lakers are likely suitors, and a report from January put the Wizards in that category, too. The Warriors had interest in trading for him at the deadline. Hawks GM Danny Ferry has strong ties to Falk, who represented Ferry during his playing days, and the same is true of Hornets owner Michael Jordan. Monroe is already eyeing destinations outside of Detroit, including the Pelicans, who play in his native New Orleans. The former seventh overall pick is still a few days shy of his 24th birthday despite having averaged 15.6 points and 9.5 rebounds per game over the last three seasons.

All of that seems adds up to plenty of reason to believe that Monroe will have a chance to sign a max offer sheet. It’s less certain whether he’ll have a chance to sign a max deal outright with Detroit, or whether Van Gundy would match a max offer sheet and yank him back to the Motor City. Much of it hinges on Josh Smith. Van Gundy was cryptic during his introductory press conference about his belief in the efficacy of the Pistons shooting-deficient front line, though he offered high praise for Andre Drummond. The commonly held belief is that the Pistons’ experiment with Smith, Monroe and Drummond in the same lineup is a failure, so presuming Van Gundy agrees with that and judging by his fondness for Drummond, it sounds like there’s room for only one of Smith and Monroe. Still, while a max deal that keeps Monroe in Detroit would seemingly indicate that Van Gundy is confident he can find a trade partner for Smith, there are other plausible outcomes.

Detroit is in line for nearly $38MM in commitments for next season, given Jonas Jerebko‘s intention to opt in. The starting salary in a max deal for Monroe would come in at around $14MM, since he’s only eligible for a max equivalent to roughly 25% of the salary cap. That would give the Pistons 10 players under contract and about $10MM in available cap space, enough leeway to re-sign Rodney Stuckey or go after a shooter with money that would exceed the value of the mid-level exception. Van Gundy, with a five-year contract and plenty of rope from owner Tom Gores, has no mandate to make the playoffs next season, and the team’s chances of doing so would be dicey even if it was an imperative. In his role as coach, Van Gundy could rotate Smith, Monroe and Drummond solely at center and power forward, thus making one of them a reserve, biding time while Smith’s contract creeps toward its midway point, which comes at the end of next season. It will become increasingly easier to trade Smith as his contract draws closer to an end, and 2016/17 would be the only season of overlap between Smith’s contract and a new, more expensive deal for Drummond.

Van Gundy may also simply settle for whatever opposing teams would be willing to give up in a trade for Smith, still just 28 and an intriguing player in the proper context. That might be the quickest way to move on from last summer’s mistake, providing Van Gundy wouldn’t have to surrender a protected first-round pick that could eventually create a repeat of this year’s lottery nightmare.

Van Gundy’s decision-making regarding his three most prominent frontcourt players overshadows what the team can do with its cap flexibility this summer. It’ll be a player’s market for shooters this offseason, with Kyle Lowry, Trevor Ariza and Jodie Meeks the only soon-to-be free agents within the top 20 in three-pointers made this past season, aside from Carmelo Anthony. Lowry would make an awkward fit with Brandon Jennings around, but Ariza and Meeks would fit within the $10MM in cap flexibility the team is likely to have if it gives Monroe a max deal. That would leave little left over for Stuckey, and while he seems unlikely to see salaries close to the $8.5MM he made this past season, signing Monroe and a starting-caliber shooter would probably spell the end of Stuckey’s tenure in Detroit. I wouldn’t be surprised if Van Gundy renounces the team’s rights to Stuckey to remove his eight-figure cap hold from the team’s books, since even if they want to re-sign him, the Pistons probably wouldn’t need Bird rights to do so.

Van Gundy will probably also elect to decline the team option for Chauncey Billups, as unpopular a decision as it might be, considering the standing that the 2004 NBA Finals MVP has in Detroit. The 37-year-old has given indications that he might simply retire, which would make it easy on the team. The decision surrounding Billups then would center around what sort of front office role, if any, Van Gundy would offer him. There are no shortage of other candidates to fill the GM position the team is creating to give Van Gundy some help, and I’d be surprised if the Pistons gave Billups the chance to fulfill his dream of becoming an NBA GM so soon. The top front office job will be Van Gundy’s for the foreseeable future, so it’s conceivable Billups pursues his future as an executive elsewhere.

Van Gundy’s future as an executive begins now, and the challenges he faces aren’t exactly a dream scenario. He certainly hasn’t been one to shirk a tough situation, and he probably laid out a firm vision for the summer ahead in the 45-page presentation he gave in his interview for the Pistons job. Players have bristled under his coaching, but he’s coaxed them into giving them the performance he wants. That’ll probably continue in Detroit, but the question is whether he’ll be able to impress upon opposing team executives with similar effectiveness.

Cap footnotes

* — Jerebko has stated his intention to opt in and remain with the team next season.
** — Harrellson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 20th.
*** — Siva’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 12th.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Utah Jazz

May 28th, 2014 at 3:02pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (5th overall)
  • 1st Round (23rd overall)
  • 2nd Round (35th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $27,149,862
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $5,096,370
  • Cap Holds: $48,137,258
  • Total: $80,383,490

The Jazz are making an offseason coaching change for the first time since they replaced Elgin Baylor with Tom Nissalke in 1979, the summer they moved from New Orleans to Salt Lake City. Every coach from that point forward came from within the organization, and none had roots as deeply planted in Utah as Tyrone Corbin, the first Jazz coach to have played for the team. Utah decided against renewing his contract at season’s end, as seemed the probable course all season. Jazz assistant coach Brad Jones is among a vast array of candidates to succeed his former boss, but it seems more likely than not that the Jazz will bring in a completely new face. It’s the latest step in GM Dennis Lindsey‘s overhaul of the franchise since he took over day-to-day control of the team’s roster in 2012 from Kevin O’Connor, who now has less of a hands-on role as the club’s executive VP of basketball ops.

Lindsey allowed the team’s top free agent talent to go elsewhere last summer, thinning the roster to a core of young up-and-comers that includes Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke. The Jazz have long-term control over Burke, a rookie, and Favors, who signed a four-year, $48MM extension this past autumn, but there are no such assurances with Hayward, who’s set to hit restricted free agency in July. There’s plenty of mutual interest between Hayward and the Jazz, as I noted when I examined Hayward’s free agent stock in July, but the 24-year-old’s reminder as the season ended that “it’s a business” leaves the door ajar.

The Celtics are the most obvious contender for Hayward, since they have his college coach, Brad Stevens, manning their bench. Boston reportedly expressed interest in trading for Hayward at the deadline, though the Jazz showed no inclination to engage in such talks. Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge will have a chance to speak directly with Hayward and agent Mark Bartelstein this summer, but Utah still controls the process. The real challenge to the Jazz comes if the Celtics or others are willing and able to lob a max offer Hayward’s way. Bartelstein never asked for a max deal from the Jazz during extension talks, and while they discussed a deal worth more than what Favors wound up with, Lindsey might not be willing to go all the way to the max.

The only caveat to Utah’s plans to retain Hayward is if the club acquires a marquee small forward in the draft, as Sean Deveney of The Sporting News reported at the deadline. Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker figure to be off the board by the time the Jazz take their pick at No. 5. Parker is a Mormon, like many in Utah, and the Jazz covet him, so there remains a distinct chance that Utah will trade up. Managing to secure a pick high enough would be difficult, since it might require dealing with the Cavs for the No. 1 overall, pick, as there’s a chance Cleveland has designs on drafting Parker, too. It’d be a long shot for Parker to wind up in Salt Lake City, and so the Jazz seem most likely to end up haggling with Hayward over just how lucrative a deal he’ll receive. Hayward recently issued his support for Earl Watson, a former teammate who’s campaigning for the Jazz head coaching job, but Watson appears to be a darkhorse candidate, at best, and it seems unlikely that passing him up would muddy negotiations with Hayward. Chances are just as remote that the Jazz would take a flier on Watson just to please Hayward, since the soon-to-be free agent doesn’t exactly wield Kobe Bryant-level influence.

Still, it’s difficult to rule out much with the Jazz, especially considering the team reportedly rejected an offer of a first-round pick this year in exchange for Marvin Williams. I’d be surprised if the offer wasn’t for a late first-rounder with a player-friendly contract or some other unattractive caveat attached to it, but it nonetheless indicates the high regard in which the organization holds the 27-year-old. He averaged 9.1 points and 5.1 rebounds in 25.4 minutes per game primarily as a small-ball power forward for Utah, solid numbers but not ones that many would pass up a first-rounder for. He seems unlikely to merit a salary close to the $7.5MM he made this past season, so I’d expect the Jazz to try to speed negotiations along during the July Moratorium so that his outsized cap hold doesn’t linger.

The Jazz will also look to quickly rid themselves of Richard Jefferson‘s team-high cap hold of more than $16MM, and with Jefferson favoring playoff teams above the Jazz as he approaches free agency, Utah will almost certainly end up renouncing his rights. The same is most likely true of Brandon Rush, who saw little playing time and seems destined to head elsewhere this summer.

Utah has five non-guaranteed contracts, and the team doesn’t have to make a decision on any of them until August. That plus roughly $36MM in cap flexibility gives the Jazz plenty of leeway to make deals, even if Hayward lands a max contract and Williams returns at not too steep a discount. The team can clear the cap space needed to pull off the kind of swap it made last summer with the Warriors, who stuffed Utah’s books with the expensive-but-expiring contracts of Jefferson, Rush and Andris Biedrins in exchange for two first-round picks. The Jazz are already sitting on two first-rounders this year, and they have another first-rounder and three second-rounders coming their way in the future as part of that trade. Lindsey is well on his way to building an arsenal of picks that can either help the team directly, if he chooses to spend them in the draft, or as sweetener in a deal to attract a disgruntled superstar under contract with another team. Marquee free agents won’t soon start flocking to Utah, so such trades and the draft must be Lindsey’s primary tools.

The Jazz will probably receive a few intriguing offers for the No. 5 pick, though it seems unlikely that anyone will present Lindsey with a chance to grab game-changing talent for a shot at a draft choice outside the top three. The Jazz already have young talent at every position, suggesting that the team will target the best available talent at No. 5. It’s doubtful the roster will bear too much resemblance to the way it does now by the time the Jazz next field a team that competes for a title, so I don’t think Lindsey would hesitate to draft, say, Dante Exum, in spite of positional overlap with Burke and a lack of outside shooting that wouldn’t complement Hayward’s game.

Utah is probably on its way to its first set of back-to-back losing seasons in 32 years. The franchise spent most of the years following the heyday of John Stockton and Karl Malone in the limbo of mediocrity, with rosters ill-equipped to win a title but too competitive to end up with a high draft pick. Lindsey has wisely pivoted from that course over the past two years, and the organization’s next set of tasks involves having the patience to continue in this direction and the savvy necessary to climb out of the lottery when the opportunity finally comes.

Cap footnotes

* — Clark’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 1st.
** — Murphy’s salary becomes guaranteed for $100,000 if he’s not waived on or before August 1st. It becomes guaranteed for $200,000 if he’s not waived on or before November 1st.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Denver Nuggets

May 27th, 2014 at 11:33am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (11th overall)
  • 2nd Round (41st overall)
  • 2nd Round (56th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $59,049,066
  • Options: $5,563,869
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $765,243
  • Cap Holds: $13,416,181
  • Total: $78,794,359

Little has gone right for the Nuggets since Danilo Gallinari tore the ACL in his left knee two weeks before the start of the 2013 playoffs. Denver was cruising toward a 57-win finish in the regular season and a first-round matchup with the playoff neophyte Warriors. It’s difficult to say whether a healthy Gallinari would have swung that series, which Golden State won in upset fashion, but it’s clear that the Nuggets have been on a downward arc ever since. The team lost Executive of the Year Masai Ujiri, whose mastery with the Carmelo Anthony brought Gallinari and a host of others to Denver, and watched assistant GM Pete D’Alessandro spurn Denver for the Kings and their new ownership group. Nuggets president Josh Kroenke and company decided against bringing back Coach of the Year George Karl in a move that raised eyebrows, though they deserve credit for hiring well-respected Pacers assistant Brian Shaw to replace Karl. Kroenke is already turning away interest in Shaw from the Knicks, who’ve had eyes on the Phil Jackson protege.

The Nuggets also lost their prize from the summer before, as they agreed to participate in a three-way trade that sent Andre Iguodala to Golden State once it became clear the free agent wouldn’t re-sign in Denver. Receiving Randy Foye and a 2018 second-rounder was a pittance, but even that uneven exchange doesn’t fully explain Denver’s plummet down the standings. Season-ending injuries to JaVale McGee, Nate Robinson, J.J. Hickson together with a botched surgery that cost Gallinari all of 2013/14 fueled Denver’s nightmare. The failure to move up in this month’s draft lottery with two chances to do so was a fitting coda to a luckless year at the foot of the Rockies. The odds of so many injuries happening again are low, and there’s stability atop the organization with Shaw and GM Tim Connelly firmly entrenched. Still, there’s little opportunity for the Nuggets to climb to the heights from which they fell.

Robinson and Darrell Arthur intend to opt in for next season, so that means the Nuggets will have more than $64.6MM in commitments to start the summer, putting them over the projected $63.2MM salary cap. They’re nonetheless nowhere near the tax line, which is expected to rise to $77MM, so they’ll have the $5.305MM non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception at their disposal. That’s enough to add another complementary piece, and with the 11th pick in the draft, the Nuggets are primed to have a better roster this coming season. Kroenke and Connelly have both expressed confidence in a return to the playoffs, but even if the team is able to accomplish that feat, which is no given in the always-stacked Western Conference, there’s little to suggest the team will do any better than 2013’s first-round exit.

The most glaring need for the Nuggets is at starting shooting guard, the position at which the team was unable to replace Iguodala this past season. The free agent options available who’d be worthy of and willing to accept mid-level money range from the over-the-hill (Ray Allen, Vince Carter) to the pedestrian (Jodie Meeks) to the erratic (Nick Young). There are nonetheless a few intriguing choices, each fraught with the drawbacks inherent with anyone in the NBA’s middle class. Former No. 2 overall pick Evan Turner, who’s losing minutes in the playoffs to Rasual Butler, would be a buy-low candidate who provides versatility and above-average rebounding. Avery Bradley showed this season that he’s more than just a defensive stopper, but he’s a restricted free agent and he and the Celtics have mutual interest in a return, so it would probably take more than the mid-level to pry him from Boston. The Thunder have thrived for several years with Thabo Sefolosha starting at the two, but he’s never averaged as many as 30 minutes per game and rarely plays down the stretch. Plus, the Nuggets don’t have the likes of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to make up for Sefolosha’s lack of offensive punch.

Shaun Livingston might be the most suitable target, particularly since the Nets only have the taxpayer’s mid-level of $3.278MM to lob at him. He’d fit the profile of the long, defensive-minded shooting guard that Chris Dempsey of The Denver Post pegs at the sort of player the team will likely target. His inspiring comeback from a gruesome injury probably gives him the sort of locker room presense Dempsey says the team will also be looking for. He’s more of a hybrid guard than a classic two-man, but the Nets thrived with Livingston and point guard Deron Williams together in the backcourt this year.

The draft offers plenty of shooting guard talent in the Nuggets’ range, too, and Denver has a decent chance to end up with its pick of Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas and James Young. Yet even if one of that trio winds up exceeding expectations in Denver, or if Livingston proves an even better fit next to Lawson than he was with Williams, it isn’t likely to vault the Nuggets into the Western Conference elite, much less give the club a legitimate shot at the championship. The most frequent criticism of Karl was that his clubs failed to advance past the first round of the playoffs, but a year removed from his tenure, it’s difficult to see how Shaw or anyone else could coach the Nuggets deep into the postseason anytime soon.

Connelly must prove as creative as Ujiri, if not more so, to move the franchise forward. Ujiri inherited his job amid the “Melo-drama” of Anthony’s impending exit for Denver, and the Anthony trade plus the team’s participation in the four-team Dwight Howard swap that brought Iguodala to Denver provided the foundation for the team’s 57 wins in 2012/13. Trades will most likely have to be the primary tools that shape the next successful Nuggets team. The deadline pickup of former No. 6 overall pick Jan Vesely didn’t work out, but it was a worthwhile venture in exchange for Andre Miller, whom the team wasn’t going to play, anyway. More such moves are required. The Nuggets already have more than $45MM on the books for 2015/16, so even if Denver were a popular free agent destination, which it is not, the team wouldn’t be in position to make a splash next summer, when a handful of stars can hit the open market. Those commitments don’t include a new deal for Kenneth Faried, with whom the team plans to talk extension this summer.

The team gauged the interest of other teams about trading for Faried at the beginning of the season, likely sparking a series of trade rumors leading up to the deadline, many of them involving Iman Shumpert and the Knicks. The Nuggets didn’t seem interested in New York’s offers, but concern that agent Thad Foucher would find a suitor willing to produce an eight-figure offer sheet in 2015 prompted Denver to make the initial trade inquiries, according to Grantland’s Zach Lowe. Faried made strides this season that have probably brought him closer to eight-figure territory, if not fully into it, but it’s unclear just how high Connelly and the Denver brass are willing to go at this point. As of February, the team was reportedly willing to draw a hard line in negotiations based on misgivings about Faried’s defense. Faried will turn 25 in November, so in spite of his improvement this past season, his ceiling probably isn’t much higher. Given the limited salary flexibility at play for the Nuggets and the restrictions that the Poison Pill Provision places on teams that attempt to trade players who’ve just received rookie scale extensions, Denver would be wise not to bend too far with Foucher and Faried.

The sort of superstar talent that’s generally required to win an NBA title rarely passes through Denver, unless it’s clothed in a road team’s uniform. Connelly possesses the unenviable task of building a contender without the benefit of high draft picks in a city that’s unappealing to most free agents. Still, such circumstances beget low expectations, and with that comes the necessary leeway for the sort of risky moves required to lift the franchise into the elite.

Cap footnotes

* — Miller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before opening night.
** — The cap hold for Vesely is equivalent to the greatest amount Denver can offer him for next season. Because the Wizards declined their fourth-year team option on Vesely prior to the season, before trading him to the Nuggets, Denver isn’t allowed to re-sign him for a 2014/15 salary that’s more than he would have earned on that option.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Raptors

May 26th, 2014 at 10:25pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (20th overall)
  • 2nd Round (37th overall)
  • 2nd Round (59th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $39,273,626
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $12,090,880
  • Cap Holds: $28,523,916
  • Total: $79,888,422

We all spent last summer talking about the Nets and Knicks.  In retrospect, we should have paid some attention to the Raptors.  Yes, Brooklyn bested the Raptors in a hard-fought seven game series, but the Raptors were the best team in the Atlantic Division from wire-to-wire, playing their way to a 48 win season when few had them pegged as a playoff team.

The single biggest reason for Toronto’s success in 2013/14 was the outstanding play of Kyle Lowry.  The veteran was never heralded as one of the top point guards in basketball, but this past season put him squarely in the conversation.  After averaging a career-high 17.9 PPG and 7.4 APG (and a career-high 20.1 PER), Lowry is set to hit the open market and figures to see a significant pay raise on a multi-year deal.  Raptors CEO Tim Leiweke has made no secret of his desire to keep the 28-year-old in Toronto.

“There’s a really special bond between [GM] Masai [Ujiri] and Kyle,” Leiweke said in April. “This town should be in love with this guy. What a great story. He’s vented that anger and energy that he had last year, and it was sometimes aimed at the refs, sometimes aimed at other people. He’s figured out how to vent that and put that into the team, and this team truly loves each other.”

While it’s true that Toronto historically hasn’t been a prime free agent destination, Lowry has found a home in more ways than one with the Raptors.  The Raptors hold Lowry’s bird rights and they have just ~$39MM in commitments on the books for 2014/15.  There will be plenty of suitors desperate for a solid veteran PG like Lowry, but it would be a surprise to see him go elsewhere.

Earlier this month, the Raptors took care of their second-biggest free agent: head coach Dwane Casey.  After guiding Toronto to a record that pretty much no one saw coming, the veteran coach was rewarded with a three-year deal that will pay him roughly $4MM per season.  With a number of openings this summer, Casey was likely to get major offers elsewhere, so it was very prudent of Raptors management to wrap him up early in the offseason.

With some financial flexibility in their favor, the Raptors could do something that was unthinkable just a few years ago: bring back Vince Carter.  The Mavericks veteran is coming off of a three-year, $9.3MM deal in Dallas and Mark Cuban may not have enough wiggle room to keep him.  Carter is still going strong at 37 and would be a solid addition to the Raptors, as well as a feel-good story, though he says he would welcome a new deal with the Mavericks.  We’re not so sure that Air Canada wouldn’t fly back home if the money was right.

Lowry is the most important free agent on the roster but he’s not the only one.  The well-traveled Patrick Patterson is a restricted free agent.  He showed promise at times and averaged 9.1 PPG and 5.1 RPG in 23 minutes per contest for the Raps.  Patterson is an adept three-point shooter who nailed 41.1% of his shots from downtown for Toronto and may seek out an opportunity with more playing time.  He’s not in line for a massive deal but a better opportunity to showcase himself could set him up for a bigger contract in the future.

The Raptors finished the season with two of their summer league invites on the roster.  Dwight Buycks and Julyan Stone found their respective niches on the bench and it’s a safe bet that their inexpensive team options, $816K and $948K ($100K guaranteed) respectively, will be exercised.  Still, one has to imagine that they’ll push for new deals and the Raptors may choose to lock them up on mulii-year pacts before they can increase their value further next season.

In addition to having a bit of cap room, the Raptors also have an opportunity to improve through the draft.  Toronto has three picks: their first round pick selection (20th overall) and two second round picks, the No. 37 (via the Kings) and No. 59 (via the Thunder).  While the Raptors are still somewhat future-minded, they got a taste of winning this season and they presumably want to position themselves for a deep playoff run in 2014/15.  It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Raptors move one or both of their second round picks and take calls on their No. 20 overall pick.  The Raptors also have 2012 second-round pick Tomislav Zubcic stashed overseas, so they’ve already got a young prospect in the pipeline.

If the Raptors move those picks, they’ll likely target a backup center to support Jonas Valanciunas.  They could also go for a veteran athletic wing player if they can’t rope VC back to his original club.  John Salmons and Landry Fields were charged with this role last season and neither made a tremendous impact.  Salmons gave the Raptors some solid D when he came over this season but averaged just 5 PPG and 2.0 RPG in ~21 minutes per game.  Fields, who has yet to justify his three-year, $20MM contract, lost most of the season to injury.  If they turn to free agency, affordable bigs on the open market could include Drew Gooden and Malcolm Thomas (non-guaranteed deal).  There are also intriguing free agent veteran wings such as Danny Granger and Marvin Williams available.  If the Raptors want to make a major addition instead, they could put themselves in the mix for Cavs free agent small forward Luol Deng.  Many reports have indicated that Deng is unhappy in Cleveland and it stands to reason that he could make a bee line to a winning club.

The Raptors will look to re-load this summer, but improvements from within are probably more central to their success next season.  If Valanciunas and Terrence Ross can take another step forward and DeMar DeRozan progresses the way we expect him to, the Raptors should find themselves at or near the top of the Atlantic with a chance to make some noise in the postseason.

Cap footnotes

* — The Raptors waived Camby in July 2013. Guaranteed money remained on the contract, even though Camby agreed to give up $2MM in a buyout arrangement.
** — Salmons’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
*** — Hansbrough’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29th.
**** — Stone’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 7th.
***** — Buycks’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 22nd.
****** — Patterson’s qualifying offer would be $4,268,609.
******* — Vasquez’s qualifying offer would be $4,677,708.
******** — De Colo’s qualifying offer would be $1,828,750.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0

Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks

May 26th, 2014 at 10:00am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (34th overall)
  • 2nd Round (51st overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $28,267,575
  • Options: $915,243
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,067,282
  • Cap Holds: $47,731,773
  • Total: $78,981,873

For a third consecutive summer, the Mavs plan an offseason pursuit of a marquee player to put next to Dirk Nowitzki. This time, Dallas has nonetheless expressed interest in retaining a handful of its own free agents, with coach Rick Carlisle having spoken of the team’s fondness for continuity after two years of roster turnover and GM Donnie Nelson‘s open to keeping the team together. The club seems to have competing goals, but it’s possible for the Mavs to retain nine players under contract for next season, re-sign Nowitzki at a reduced rate, and still approach the kind of cap flexibility necessary to chase maximum-salary level free agents.

That two-pronged approach hinges on Nowitzki’s willingness to re-sign at a discount. Neither he nor the Mavs have expressed any doubts that he’ll return to Dallas next season, but the former MVP wants the team to show respect to his continued strong play. The 7-footer averaged 21.7 points and 6.2 rebounds in 32.9 minutes per game with 39.8% three-point shooting this past season. His 23.6 PER was his highest since 2007/08. Were he not turning 36 next month, he’d fit the profile of a maximum-salary player. Instead, he’s staring at a significant decrease in pay from the more than $22.7MM he made this past season. He’s already acknowledged he won’t be receiving anything resembling the two-year, $48.5MM extension that’s about to kick in for Kobe Bryant, just two months Nowitzki’s junior. Reports indicate he’s in line for deals ranging from a three-year, $30MM pact to a contract with annual salaries of as much as $12MM. I think he’ll probably wind up on the high end of that range, but in any case, the Mavs are poised to have Nowitzki at a bargain price next season.

There will be pressure on Dallas to rapidly close the deal with Nowitzki so that the team can make the deal official as soon as the July Moratorium ends and wipe his massive cap hold off the books. That shouldn’t be too tough a task for an organization that’s intimately familiar with the down-to-earth star who lets mentor Holger Geschwindner negotiate his deals in place of an agent. It’ll nonetheless be the first time the Mavs are asking Nowitzki for such a sacrifice, so it won’t necessarily be an open-and-shut procedure.

A $12MM salary for Nowitzki and the club’s planned retention of Samuel Dalembert and his full salary would give the Mavs about $42.3MM in commitments, $20MM shy of the projected salary cap. That wouldn’t be enough to accommodate a maximum-salary offer for free agent target Carmelo Anthony, who can make close to $22.5MM next season, particularly given the roughly $1.5MM in roster charges the Mavs would incur if they were to strip down to nine players. The Mavs would nonetheless be reasonably close. They could clear additional cap space if they find a trade partner for Shane Larkin, last year’s 18th overall pick. Larkin is somewhat redundant on a roster that features three other point guards under contract for next season. Still, Dallas is nonetheless reportedly uninterested in paying Anthony the max, suggesting the team might not want to go so far as to dump last year’s first-round pick just to get as close to Anthony’s max as possible.

The Mavs will certainly make a run at ‘Melo, but it doesn’t appear as though their offseason plans are dedicated to a pursuit of the top free agent target, as was the case in 2012 with Deron Williams and to a lesser degree with Dwight Howard last summer. It seems most likely the Mavs will miss out on the top four players in the latest Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings. LeBron James appears increasingly likely to stay in Miami, the Suns intend to match all offers for restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe, Anthony doesn’t have Dallas high on his wishlist and the Mavs and Chris Bosh have a mutual disinterest. That still leaves a coterie of players more valuable than Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon, the Mavs’ headliners from last summer’s free agent effort, and for the likes of Greg Monroe, Kyle Lowry and Zach Randolph, there’d be no need to strain to clear extra cap room.

Luol Deng and Marcin Gortat are reportedly two of the team’s primary targets. Of the pair, Deng appears more valuable, if more expensive, but he’s also more likely to leave his current team, as his brief Cleveland experience seemed to go south nearly from the beginning. Deng would be a younger replacement for Shawn Marion at small forward, and he’d provide the defense needed to offset the presence of Calderon and Ellis with enough offensive firepower to give the Mavs a frighteningly potent attack. There will be plenty of competition for Deng, but even a rumored $13.5MM price tag for the 29-year-old would be doable. It probably wouldn’t take that much to land Gortat, but it might require money not too far removed from that figure to pry him from the Wizards. He’d instantly become the team’s best center since Tyson Chandler, whom Dallas not coincidentally has interest in reacquiring.

There’s no telling if Chandler can recapture his status as an elite defender after an early season injury led to a down year this past season, and his contract, which calls for him to make $14.5MM next season, would scare off most. Dallas didn’t want to give him that kind of money when he agreed to that deal with the Knicks right after the lockout, but this time, doing so would only require a one-season commitment, since Chandler’s contract is up a year from now. Still, such a trade would probably require the Mavs to relinquish one of Calderon and Ellis or much of the team’s cap flexibility this summer, and neither option seems all that appealing. Larry Sanders is another defensive-minded center whom Dallas is apparently eyeing, but he’d be significantly more of a risk. His new four-year, $44MM extension kicks in for next season, and while he’d be less expensive than Chandler would be for next season, the long-term commitment would be the stumbling block. The Mavs can’t afford an $11MM albatross for each of the next four years as Nowitzki’s biological clock ticks.

The Mavs had one of the oldest rosters this past season, as 36-year-old Marion and 37-year-old Vince Carter embodied. Those two won’t combine to make the nearly $12.5MM they hauled in this past season, but they’re not minimum-salary fodder, either. Each has shown interest in returning, but Marion can envision playing elsewhere, and it’s conceivable that Carter will end up with offers for a salary greater than the $3.18MM he made this year. The Mavs are apparently worried about how they’ll be able to retain both without compromising their cap flexibility. In Marion’s case, just as with Nowitzki, there’s pressure on the team to quickly reach an agreement to wipe his outsized cap hold off the books. There seems a strong chance the Mavs end up renouncing his Bird rights if they can’t close a deal by the end of the moratorium.

Dallas has another decision it has to make regarding its team option on Jae Crowder. His ability to carve out a niche in the team’s rotation would in many cases make it a no-brainer to keep him at less than $1MM for next season, but declining the option would give the Mavs an extra shot of cap flexibility. That money could make all the difference when it comes to finding room for either a big fish like Anthony or a mix of second-tier free agents and new deals for Carter and Marion.

The Mavs showed they can compete with the very best in the Western Conference during their seven-game challenge of San Antonio, and they’ll have a few methods of giving themselves more than a puncher’s chance for next season. Which method they end up employing might not be as important as their willingness and preparedness to use all the tools at their disposal rather than just banging away with the shiniest one.

Cap footnotes

* — Crowder’s qualifying offer would be $1,115,243 if the team declines its option. That would represent his cap hold, unless the Mavs elect not to tender the qualifying offer. In that case, Crowder’s cap hold would be $915,243.
** — The Mavs hold the draft rights to Koponen, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 30th overall pick in 2007, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 30th overall pick in this year’s draft.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 0 Share 0 Send via email0
Load More Posts