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Offseason Outlook: Utah Jazz

June 27th, 2013 at 10:00am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (14th overall)
  • 1st Round (21st overall)
  • 2nd Round (46th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $25,327,916
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,577,744
  • Cap Holds: $61,421,336
  • Total: $88,326,996

There's a school of thought that says no situation is worse for an NBA franchise than being annually stuck on the cusp of playoff contention — good enough to be in the mix for a postseason berth and perhaps good enough to even earn a spot, but not good enough to make a deep run. I'm not sure I totally buy that argument, but when a team gets stuck in that no man's land for years at a time, there comes a point when a drastic shift in one direction or the other may be necessary.

For the Jazz, that time may have arrived. Over the past eight seasons, Utah has placed between fourth and 11th in the Western Conference, earning a playoff berth in five of those eight years, but only advancing to the Western Finals once, back in 2006/07. The team's '12/13 season epitomzed the eight-year stretch, as Utah came within one game of making the postseason, finishing ninth in the Western Conference and scoring the worst pick in the lottery, 14th overall.

Years of landing those mid-first-round picks has made it difficult for the Jazz to add the impact players required to become a legit contender, but there are reasons to believe things could change for the team going forward. With Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Mo Williams, and Randy Foye among the veteran players ticketed for unrestricted free agency this offseason, it's possible, perhaps even likely, that the Jazz team we saw miss out on a playoff spot in '12/13 will be entirely different from the one we see take the floor in the fall. Marvin Williams is the only veteran still on the roster, while the club's other five players on guaranteed contracts have three years of experience or less.

With just over $25MM in guaranteed salaries, plus a pair of first-round picks (the Jazz have the Warriors' 21st overall pick in addition to their own), there will be plenty of options for the club this summer. The pursuit of a top-tier free agent like Dwight Howard or Chris Paul is unlikely, since none of those elite free agents have shown any inclination to sign with Utah. But the Jazz do have the inside track on Millsap and Jefferson, two players that probably rank among the top ten free agents available this summer.

Re-signing one or both of those free agent bigs may seem like more running in place for the Jazz, considering the limited postseason success they've had in recent years with Millsap and Jefferson leading the way. But with players Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter continuing to develop, a pair of first-round picks available to add prospects or use as trade chips, and the flexibility to add complementary players around the current core, the team could certainly believe there's room for continued improvement without making wholesale changes.

Another option would be to explore sign-and-trades for Millsap and Jefferson. The new CBA has de-incentivized sign-and-trade deals to a certain extent for both players and teams, but in specific scenarios, such a move can be mutually beneficial. If Utah could avoid adding any bad contracts, and was able to acquire a draft pick or two, or perhaps another young player, it would make sense for the club to at least explore sign-and-trade possibilities for its veteran free agents.

Letting Jefferson and Millsap walk to claim a huge chunk of cap space is another possibility for Utah, though as I alluded to earlier, even with room for a max contract, the Jazz are unlikely to recruit any impact free agents without overpaying. Pursuing a player like Josh Smith may make sense for a team like the Mavericks or Rockets, who already have another star in place, but someone like Smith probably wouldn't be a fit with Utah's young core.

It's more likely that the Jazz would use that hypothetical cap space the way the Cavs have for the last several years, accommodating salary-dumps and being rewarded with draft picks for their trouble. That sort of full-scale rebuild would allow the Jazz to give more minutes to their young players, figuring out which ones will be integral to the team's long-term plans. It would also likely mean a decline in the team's on-court results, which could lead to a higher lottery pick in 2014, perhaps even giving the club a chance to land a difference-maker like Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker.

With so much flexibility, the Jazz could go in any number of directions this summer, and the front office hasn't really tipped its hand on which way it's leaning. The safe play would be to re-sign one of Millsap or Jefferson, draft a point guard and a big, and perhaps target wing players in free agency or trades, hoping that further improvement from the young core would help the team return to the postseason. But for a club that has remained in the middle of the pack in the West for nearly a decade, a more extreme approach one way or the other has to at least be considered.

Additional notes:

  • If the Jazz keep the 14th and 21st picks, I expect them to take a point guard and a big man — perhaps Dennis Schroeder and Mason Plumlee, or Lucas Nogueira and Isaiah Canaan, as our Alex Lee suggests in his latest mock draft. If it's possible though, I'd prefer to see the team package its two first-rounders, perhaps with Alec Burks, to move up and take one of the top point guards in the draft — Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, or C.J. McCollum.
  • Favors and Gordon Hayward will be extension-eligible this offseason, and when our Chuck Myron previewed extension candidates in the spring, he predicted that the team would reach an agreement with Favors, but not Hayward. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jazz worked out something with both players, but I expect them to try harder on Favors, since he'll be a strong candidate for a breakout year in 2013/14 if Jefferson and/or Millsap are gone. Utah could save itself a few dollars by getting him locked up early.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Williams had an early termination option for 2013/14, but has reportedly declined it, making his salary fully guaranteed for next season.
  2. McNeal's salary becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before October 31st.
  3. Murphy's salary becomes partially guaranteed for $75,000 if he's not waived on or before August 1st. He receives another $125,000 (for a $200,000 overall guarantee) if he's not waived on or before November 1st. His salary becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before January 7th, 2014.
  4. Jefferson's cap hold will be worth the maximum salary for a player with his experience (7-9 years). That amount is not yet known — the number listed was 2012/13's max salary, so it figures to be a little higher than that.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 26th, 2013 at 8:28am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (9th overall)
  • 1st Round (26th overall)
  • 2nd Round (52nd overall)
  • 2nd Round (58th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $37,670,378
  • Options: $12,399,420
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,606,974
  • Cap Holds: $12,658,293
  • Total: $66,335,065

2012/13 was supposed to be the coming-out party for the new-look Timberwolves, led by Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love. After an eventful summer that saw the team land Andrei Kirilenko, Alexey Shved, and Chase Budinger, the Wolves looked like a good bet to return to the postseason for the first time since they lost the Western Finals in 2004. No team was more snake-bitten last season than the Wolves though, who endured injuries to virtually every major contributor, and saw Rubio and Love play in the same game just three times.

Still, there's reason for optimism in Minnesota, as the club's core duo remains in place for the 2013/14 season and beyond. Flip Saunders has also assumed control of the team's basketball operations, taking over for David Kahn. As the team's general manager, Kahn wasn't a total disaster, but every one of his hits seemed to be follow up by a miss. Drafting Rubio was a great decision, but taking Jonny Flynn in the same lottery? Not so much. Signing Love to a long-term extension was also the right call, but not giving him the five years he sought was questionable.

In any case, it will be Saunders, not Kahn, who's making the major decisions for the team this summer, and there will be no shortage of those. One of the first significant decisions actually belongs to Kirilenko, rather than the team, as the Russian forward weighs whether or not to pick up his $10.22MM player option for '13/14. While Kirilenko had a productive season in Minnesota, I get the sense that the Wolves wouldn't be devastated if he decided to opt out, since it would create a little more cap flexibility for the team.

Nikola Pekovic also represents a top priority for the T-Wolves this offseason, as the big man hits restricted free agency for the first time. Given the kind of offer sheets we typically see young bigs sign, it wouldn't be totally outrageous to see a rival suitor swoop in with a maximum-salary offer for Pekovic, which would be a tough pill for the Wolves to swallow. Minnesota would have no problem matching an annual salary of $10-12MM for Pekovic, but it will be interesting to see what the team decides if it's confronted with a max offer.

Depending on what happens with Pekovic and Kirilenko, the Wolves may not have a ton of cap flexibility to try to address the long-standing hole at shooting guard. As such, it's easy to see why the team is reportedly interested in moving up in the draft to grab Victor Oladipo. With the Nos. 9 and 26 picks, along with Derrick Williams, the Wolves could put together a tantalizing package in an effort to move into the top three or four, and it wouldn't shock me if that's exactly what happened on draft night.

The likelihood of a trade figures to depend on who the Cavaliers pick with the first overall selection. If Cleveland takes Nerlens Noel, I'd expect the Magic to target Oladipo, and it's not clear whether that hypothetical Wolves package would be enough to sway them. However, if the Cavs were to draft Alex Len, I could see Orlando taking Noel, the Wizards drafting Otto Porter, and the Wolves trading up to No. 4 to snag Oladipo. This is all my speculation, but with Noel and Len off the board, the Bobcats may be willing to trade down a few spots to pick up extra assets in Williams and the No. 26 pick.

If the Wolves stay put in the draft, a player like C.J. McCollum or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes sense at No. 9. While I expect the Wolves to address the two guard spot in the draft, rather than in free agency, there are a few available options on the open market too. O.J. Mayo makes some sense, particularly if Kirilenko or Pekovic walks, clearing up a little cap room. Tony Allen and Gerald Henderson look like logical potential targets as well.

With Kirilenko and Budinger facing potential free agency, the team may find itself with a hole at the three as well as the two. In that case, perhaps the focus in the draft and/or free agency shifts to that position, with the Wolves addressing the two in a smaller deal (ie. the No. 26 pick for the Nets' MarShon Brooks). I could see the Wolves attempting to bring back Budinger, since the club liked him enough last summer to give up a first-round pick for him. A knee injury wiped out most of Budinger's 2012/13, but perhaps the lost season will keep his price tag down in free agency.

Last season was a disappointing one for the Wolves, but it shouldn't put a damper on fans' optimism for the future in Minnesota. Love and Rubio remain under contract for at least two more years, and with players like Williams, Shved, J.J. Barea, and Luke Ridnour on board, there are plenty of nice rotation pieces or trade chips on the roster. If the Wolves can bring back Pekovic and/or Kirilenko and add a shooting guard, this team would be at least as good as the squad we expected to contend for the postseason last year. There's no reason to think that a healthier year in 2013/14 wouldn't get the Wolves back in that playoff conversation.

Additional notes:

  • The Wolves hold a team option on Dante Cunningham, and essentially have options on Mickael Gelabale and Greg Stiemsma as well. I wouldn't be shocked if the team went either way on any of the three decisions, though I expect to see Cunningham and Gelabale brought back. Saunders may decide that Stiemsma's production could be matched by a minimum-salary big man.
  • Keep an eye out for the Trail Blazers as a potential suitor for Pekovic. I don't think he's an ideal fit in Portland, since he's far from an elite rim defender, but the Blazers do need a center, and the two teams have engaged in a bit of a back-and-forth on roster moves over the last several years (Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster, etc.).

Cap footnotes:

  1. Stiemsma's contract is fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 17th.
  2. Gelabale's contract is fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 22nd.
  3. Pekovic will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $6,046,500.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Phoenix Suns

June 24th, 2013 at 9:55pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options  

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (5th overall)
  • 1st Round (30th overall)
  • 2nd Round (57th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $44,420,504
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,831,793
  • Cap Holds: $11,085,598
  • Total: $59,337,895

The Suns didn't waste time in making changes this offseason as they became the first NBA club to can their GM.  Lance Blanks was shown the door on April 24th and a few weeks later, the Suns found their next decision maker in Ryan McDonough.  Blanks didn't have the easiest job with the Suns as he joined the club in the summer of 2010, shortly after Amar'e Stoudemire left for the Knicks.  The Suns went from a Western Conference finalist in 2010 to a mediocre team the next two seasons, capped off by a 25-57 mark this year.  McDonough's job won't be easy, but he doesn't necessarily have a tough act to follow.

We saw multiple coaches under contract given the greenlight to look elsewhere this offseason – Larry Drew, Lionel Hollins, Doc Rivers - but the Suns did that before it was cool.  Lindsey Hunter was still technically the club's interim head coach this summer and while Phoenix mulled their options, they gave the former guard a chance to explore his options elsewhere.  That didn't officially spell the end of Hunter's tenure with the Suns, but it more or less sealed his fate and made way for new head coach Jeff Hornacek.

One would expect a team as young and, sorry, as unimpressive as the Suns to have enough cap room to ink someone to a max deal, but that's just not the case.  The club has two deals that are only partially guaranteed in Shannon Brown and Hamed Haddadi plus a non-guaranteed pact with P.J. Tucker, but the team will still have more than $44MM committed to nine players for next season if they were to cut bait with those three.  When you couple that with the two first-round picks that the Suns have in the June draft, there's just no way that they can throw someone max money.  Even if they could, the Suns aren't in a position to court an elite player and overpaying for a near-max type like Andre Iguodala or Monta Ellis doesn't fit their gameplan since they aren't going to contend right away.

The Suns hold two first-round picks in this Thursday's draft (No. 5 and No. 30) and no matter how the top of the board shakes out, the Suns figure to come away with a quality talent.  The latest mock draft from DraftExpress has the Suns taking Victor Oladipo but the Indiana high flyer may not be available and could even be in the mix at No. 1.  In a draft that is said to be short on stars, Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic hears that they'll be in best player available mode, which could even mean taking a point guard, despite having Goran Dragic under contract for the next three years and 2012 first-rounder Kendall Marshall.  I don't think the Suns are enamored enough by Trey Burke to overload themselves at the one-guard position and even if their not drafting for need, it's hard to rule out the appeal of Ben McLemore.  The Suns need perimeter shooting and athleticism and the Kansas product provides both.

Two of this year's top prospects are centers (Nerlens Noel and Alex Len) and neither player would seem to fit a need for the Suns, but that could change if they were to part with Marcin Gortat.  The Blazers have interest in the 29-year-old and if the Suns can get one of those prospects at No. 5 (Len is far more likely than Noel), they could be thinking big with their highest pick since 1968/69.  With the late first-rounder or their second-round selection, the Suns could be thinking international since they're building for the future.  

Additional notes:

  • P.J. Tucker's $884K salary is non-guaranteed for 2013/14, but he's a mortal lock to return.  There weren't a whole lot of bright spots for the Suns last season, but Tucker's hard-nosed style of play was one of them. 
  • The Nos. 5, 30, and 57 selections in the draft may not be enough for the Suns.  They're reportedly open to adding another first-round pick and for a forward-thinking franchise, that possibility can't be ruled out.  It sounds as though we'll see a lot of movement on draft night and the Suns are one of the clubs to keep an eye on.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Brown's and Haddadi's salaries become fully guaranteed if they're not waived on or before June 29th.
  2. Tucker's salary becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 1st.
  3. $988,872 is the amount of Garrett's potential qualifying offer. If the Suns don't extend a QO, Garrett's cap hold will be reduced to $788,872.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: San Antonio Spurs

June 24th, 2013 at 2:51pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (28th overall)
  • 2nd Round (58th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $32,884,578
  • Options: $5,836,450
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,945,000
  • Cap Holds: $41,960,5142
  • Total: $83,626,5422

After the Spurs came within a few baskets of the 2013 championship, it's becoming clear that the team's long-awaited drop-off may just not be coming. We've all assumed that core players like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili would eventually slow down, resulting in at least one or two down years for a club that hasn't had a winning percentage below .610 since 1996/97.

And that process is starting to happen — Ginobili has had trouble staying on the court the last couple seasons, and his 11.8 PPG and .425 FG% marks in 2012/13 were both nearly career-lows. Duncan, meanwhile, remains productive, but isn't logging the same 35-40 minutes he was earlier in his career, having averaged 28.9 MPG over the last three seasons.

Nonetheless, the Spurs continue to rack up wins. Tony Parker only just turned 31 and should have a few good years left in him, while a wave of younger players are starting to make significant contributions, picking up some of the slack for San Antonio's veterans. The 21-year-old Kawhi Leonard looks like the player with the most star potential, but Danny Green, Tiago Splitter, and Cory Joseph also played key roles for the Western Conference champs.

Still, at some point Ginobili and Duncan will retire, and to extend the franchise's incredible run of success, the Spurs will have to find a way to not just keep their younger contributors locked up, but also to continue adding useful pieces to the core. With Ginobili, Splitter, and Gary Neal among the players headed for free agency next week, this summer represents an important one for the Spurs to begin putting those long-term pieces in place.

Assuming the Argentinian guard doesn't decide to retire, re-signing Ginobili figures to be a priority for the Spurs in July. Since he earned a $14MM+ salary in 2012/13, Ginobili will have a cap hold worth the max salary, but is likely in line for a significant pay cut. Agreeing to a new deal with him early on in the offseason will allow the Spurs to reduce that big cap hit to his new salary, potentially something below $5MM, giving the team room to pursue other players.

If we assume Boris Diaw and Patty Mills exercise their respective player options, and the Spurs decide to fully guarantee the final year of Matt Bonner's contract, a salary around $4-5MM for Ginobili would bring the overall team salary to about $46MM for 11 players. However, that would still leave the club with decisions to make on Splitter and Neal.

Grantland's Zach Lowe recently suggested that executives believe Splitter, a productive and fairly young big, will earn an annual salary in the neighborhood of $8-10MM. If Splitter gets such a deal from the Spurs, and Neal receives a modest raise to return, the team won't have any cap space, and will have to use its mid-level exception to add another rotation player.

On the other hand, if the team decides to renounce its rights to Splitter and Neal, and perhaps waives Bonner and signs Ginobili at an even more discounted rate, San Antonio could nearly have enough room to make a max-salary offer to a free agent. There has been some speculation that the team could be a dark horse suitor for Dwight Howard, but I have a hard time seeing it. The Spurs pride themselves on their chemistry, and Howard hasn't exactly blended in seamlessly on or off the court for the Magic or Lakers during the last couple seasons.

It's possible the Spurs could decide that pursuing a free agent veteran like Howard, Paul Millsap, or Al Jefferson makes more sense than bringing back Splitter, but I think the most likely scenario involves Ginobili, Splitter, and Neal returning to San Antonio. We typically don't see the Spurs too involved with major free agents — most of their rotation players were drafted or acquired by the team early in their respective careers, and have been developed and groomed by San Antonio for years. R.C. Buford and the team's front office have displayed a real knack for identifying diamonds in the rough, so even if the club uses its full MLE to bring in a veteran, I don't expect a major splash in San Antonio this offseason. It's possible that the Spurs' most impactful long-term addition this summer will be selected with the No. 28 pick this Thursday, given how well the team has drafted over the years.

Assuming this Spurs team returns relatively intact, with a few minor changes around the edges, we'll likely hear plenty of chatter in the fall about that long-awaited drop-off finally arriving in 2013/14. But with Leonard evolving into a potential star, Green claiming a bigger role, and Parker continuing to run the offense, I'm guessing San Antonio will be just fine.

Additional notes:

  • While I think there's a good chance Ginobili, Splitter, and Neal all re-sign with the Spurs, it's a virtual lock that DeJuan Blair will sign elsewhere. He and the team didn't exactly see eye-to-eye over the last year or two.
  • Considering the handful of overseas gems the Spurs have brought stateside over the years, it will be interesting to see if Nando De Colo and Aron Baynes take a step forward during their second year with the Spurs. Both players saw limited playing time in 2012/13, but remain under contract next season.
  • The Spurs' long-term cap flexibility is admirable — Green, Leonard, and Joseph will be in line to receive new contracts, and perhaps significant raises, in 2015/16. Currently, the Spurs have no money on their books for that season or beyond, meaning they shouldn't have any trouble re-signing all the players they want to keep.

Cap footnotes:

  1. If Bonner is not released on or before June 29th, his salary will become fully guaranteed.
  2. Ginobili's cap hold will be worth the maximum salary for a player with his experience (10+ years). That amount is not yet known — the number listed was 2012/13's max salary, so it figures to be a little higher than that.
  3. Splitter will be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,930,000.
  4. $1,116,099 is the amount of Neal's potential qualifying offer. If the Spurs don't extend a QO, Neal's cap hold will be reduced to $884,293.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Heat

June 23rd, 2013 at 11:04am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $75,547,200
  • Options: $10,128,557
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $788,872 
  • Cap Holds: $1,768,586
  • Total: $88,233,215

The Heat will celebrate their second consecutive championship with another victory parade Monday in Miami, and all in attendance would be well-advised to embrace the moment. Though the Heat are betting-line favorites to win again next season, there's plenty of reason to believe the team's stay atop the NBA won't last much longer.

The future of LeBron James promises to be a topic of nearly ceaseless discussion for the next 12 months as he nears an early-termination option on his contract. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have the same options in their deals, but neither of them are quite as certain to merit new max contracts on the open market as James is. There will be plenty of financial incentive for James to elect free agency next summer. He, like Wade and Bosh, took less than the max to sign with the Heat in 2010, but with a mounting stack of MVP awards, James not be so charitable this time around.

James will be looking at a Heat team with serious questions about its future, ones that have nothing to do with Wade's increasingly balky knees. The repeater tax in the new collective bargaining agreement is set to kick in for 2014/15, punishing teams that will have paid luxury taxes in that season and the three previous years. The Heat have been taxpayers for the past two years, and their guaranteed contracts for next season exceed the projected tax line of $71.6MM. Bringing back James, Wade and Bosh next summer would surely make the Heat taxpayers again, and for that year, owner Micky Arison would have to shell out at least $2.50 for every dollar he spends beyond the tax threshold. The farther into the tax the team goes, the higher the rate it will have to pay.

Up to this point, the luxury tax has simply been a dollar-for-dollar charge. That changes in 2013/14, when tax teams must pay at least $1.50 for every dollar above the tax line, regardless of how many seasons they've paid the tax in the past. That brings the dilemma into focus for this summer, since the cost of keeping the championship team together rises even before King James can bolt.

The easiest way for the Heat to cut next season's tax bill is probably to use the amnesty clause. They aren't going to amnesty James, Wade or Bosh, so the choice comes down to one of their other three eligible players: Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony. Miller's contract, worth a total of $12.8MM for two more seasons, is the most expensive among the three. He seemed destined for the amnesty scrapheap until re-emerging in the Heat's rotation in the conference finals. The 13-year veteran became a starter in the middle of the NBA Finals, and just as he did at the end of last year's Finals, Miller proved that his three-point shooting is a critical part of the team's success. Still, he's overpaid for someone who's essentially a spot-up shooter, and even though it would be difficult to cut ties with a playoff hero, I think it would still be a wise move for team president Pat Riley and company.

Haslem and Anthony certainly merit consideration for the amnesty, and Anthony in particular, since he disappeared from the Heat's rotation once Chris Andersen arrived. Haslem was the starting power forward for most of the season, but Miller took his playing time in the playoffs as coach Erik Spoelstra more fully embraced the small-ball philosophy. Haslem played less than 10 minutes over the last three games of the Finals combined. Haslem's contract has $8.96MM left on it for the next two seasons, about $4MM less than Miller's deal. That difference would be multiplied by the increased tax rates, so the effective difference would be somewhere around $11.5MM, at least. Haslem, a Miami native, has been with the Heat for his entire 10-year career, so there are plenty of sentimental reasons to hang on to him, too.  

Anthony was the least productive player of the three this past season, and his remaining contract, worth $7.6MM over two more years, is the least expensive. Amnestying him instead of Miller or Haslem would help keep the rotation together for another run at a title, but Arison may be better off testing the depth of his pockets at another time.

The return of Ray Allen would help make the decision to amnesty Miller easier, since Allen is another of the team's elite three-point shooters. Allen is on the fence about his $3.229MM player option for next season. He had plenty of suitors on the open market last year, and even though he played a significantly reduced role this past season compared to what he had done with the Celtics, I think plenty of teams would line up for him again if he elects free agency. The Celtics were willing to pay him twice as much as he got from the Heat last summer, and while I don't think Allen will merit any offers of a $6MM annual salary this time around, he can probably do better than what he's set to make in his option year. At the very least, teams should be willing to offer him a multiyear deal that would give Allen more guaranteed money than a one-year option pickup would provide. The Heat could re-sign Allen to a deal with a starting salary of $3.708MM for as many as four years through Non-Bird rights. A multiyear deal could pose yet more tax issues down the road for the Heat, but that may be what it takes to bring Allen back.

Re-signing Allen would make it easier for the Heat to bring back Andersen, too. The team would barely be able to exceed the minimum salary to re-sign the Birdman without dipping into the $3.183MM taxpayer's mid-level exception. The Heat would have to use that exception to replace Allen if he leaves, and since they'd probably like to find another outside shooter with Allen gone, that would probably signal an exit for Andersen. 

The Heat experimented with lineups that didn't feature a traditional point guard at times this season, including during the Finals, when those groups were effective down the stretch in games. That might lead to speculation that the Heat could turn down their $4MM option on Mario Chalmers, but I don't think the team envisions giving Wade or James significantly more ballhandling duties while forcing one them to guard opposing point guards every night. James was effective stopping Tony Parker in the Finals, but that's a heavy burden for a player who has so many other tasks, and I think the Heat would be loath to saddle him with such duty in the regular season. Norris Cole doesn't appear ready to assume a starting role, and finding a cheap replacement for Chalmers who could share the position with Cole would probably weaken the team quite a bit. I don't think the Heat will try to skimp here, particularly given Chalmers' relative youth on an otherwise aging roster.

If Riley is to get creative in a quest to save money, it would probably involve a trade. Bosh has drawn mention as a potential trade candidate, and the perception remains that he's the most expendable of the Heat's three stars, particularly after his scoreless performance in Game Seven of the Finals. Miami would probably target a cheaper big man as part of a trade, but inexpensive size has long been the most difficult-to-find commodity in the NBA. Bosh isn't a traditional rim-protecting center, but his speed and long arms make him a disruptive presence on defense. Even if Bosh is overpaid to some degree, the Heat would probably be looking at a downgrade for their roster next season if they traded him, risking another shot at a title.

Wade's trade value is at an all-time low, but if the Heat are to deal away one of their stars, he's probably the best choice. His up-and-down play this postseason proved that he has to perform at an All-Star level for the Heat to win against the best opponents. If he can no longer do so consistently, the Heat might be better off trading him for someone who can. An underpaid star wing player is usually easier to find than a big man with similar credentials, so that's another argument for trading Wade instead of Bosh.

Still, no player on the roster is as much part of the fabric of the Heat's culture as Wade is. He took the sharpest discount among the team's three stars when they signed in 2010. Wade has the superstar credentials and the intimate knowledge of what it's like to be "the man" in Miami, even if he's no longer either of those things. That could help him recruit a replacement for LeBron if the four-time MVP leaves next summer. The intangibles in play as part of any Wade trade could be enough to scuttle the idea before it crosses Riley's mind.

This offseason figures to be about small-scale maintainance of a championship roster instead of earth-shattering moves. A third championship in a row, which would put Miami in the elite company of the Celtics, Lakers and Bulls as the only franchises ever to accomplish such a feat, is within the team's grasp. That's probably worth the cost of ignoring concerns about the future for one more year. Riley and the Heat pursued a similar strategy to chase the 2006 title with Shaquille O'Neal and company, bottoming out in 2007/08 with a league-worst 15-67 record. It didn't take too long for the Heat to rebound from that nadir, and with warm weather and no state income tax, not to mention a growing championship tradition, the team probably wouldn't take too long to bounce back from a similar crash. If 2013/14 must be a swan song for the LeBron-era Heat, expect the band from the last two or three seasons to remain largely intact for one more. 

Additional notes:

  • James Jones and Rashard Lewis have player options that are no-brainers to exercise, so the Heat can count on spending nearly $3MM to seat them at the end of the bench. 
  • There's mutual interest between the Heat and Greg Oden, but since there are several teams reportedly in the mix for the former No. 1 overall pick, it will probably take more than the minimum salary to bring him aboard.  The only other way the Heat could sign him would be via the taxpayer's mid-level exception. If the team re-signs Allen and doesn't have to use the exception to find a shooter to replace him, Oden could be an alternative to re-signing Andersen.

Cap footnote:

  1. Varnado's contract becomes guaranteed for $250K if he's not waived on or before opening night, and it's guaranteed for $500K if he's not waived on or before December 15th.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Orlando Magic

June 21st, 2013 at 8:29pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (2nd overall)
  • 2nd Round (51st overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $42,552,972
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $11,247,465
  • Cap Holds: $18,728,665
  • Total: $72,529,102

Trading away a superstar and finishing with the league’s worst record would leave most teams in dire straits. That’s not so for the Magic, who exhibited glimmers of brighter days ahead during an otherwise lost season. Second-year center Nikola Vucevic, acquired last summer as part of the four-team blockbuster that shipped Dwight Howard out of town, ripped off a pair of 20-point, 20-rebound games against the Heat, and was one of only seven players in the NBA to average a double-double. Trade deadline pickup Tobias Harris thrived when given the minutes he never saw as a member of the Bucks, and rookie Maurice Harkless gathered steam as the season wore on.

There remains much work to do for GM Rob Hennigan, the 31-year-old wunderkind and former Spurs employee whom the Magic hired away from the Thunder’s front office a year ago. The draft is the first item on the agenda, and there’s no easy decision with the No. 2 overall pick. There’s been talk that the Magic could trade down, though they’re reportedly “far from desperate” to do so. If they keep the pick, multiple reports note that Victor Oladipo has overtaken Ben McLemore on the team’s draft board, which suggests Oladipo could be the pick. Chad Ford of ESPN.com, who provided one of those reports, says the Magic would strongly consider Nerlens Noel if the Cavs take a pass on him. Many mock drafts have linked the Magic to Trey Burke over the last couple of months, but Burke isn’t part of the group of a half-dozen players considered likely to be drafted first in some order or another, so perhaps he could be Orlando’s target if the team trades down.

One of the reasons for the Burke talk has been the widespread perception that point guard is a position of weakness for the Magic, which seems incongruous given that one of Hennigan’s first acts after assuming the job was to give Jameer Nelson a three-year, $25.2MM contract. Though Nelson posted the worst field goal shooting of his career, he did so on his greatest number of shot attempts, and he also had more assists than ever. The 31-year-old isn’t an elite point guard, but he’s not the worst, either, and after 2013/14, there’s only $2MM guaranteed on his contract for the next season. The Magic may want to bring a young point guard aboard for Nelson to mentor, but I doubt they’d reach for one in the draft.

The Magic appear much more willing to trade for a young point guard, given their pursuit of Eric Bledsoe that dates back nearly a month, at least. It seems like the Clippers aren’t quite as sold on such a deal, which could include Caron Butler and Arron Afflalo, which makes sense considering the Clips appear to have hopes that Bledsoe can help them net a much greater return. Afflalo, like Nelson, suffered a decline in shooting but an increase in other numbers amidst a greater offensive role this past season, but his contract has three more years and $23,437,500 left on it, including a nearly $8MM player option for 2015/16. Afflalo's production last season was similar to Nelson’s, but it came tied with a more expensive — and lengthier — contract. If the Magic can unload Afflalo for a reasonable return, they’d probably do it, and that helps explain why they’re targeting a shooting guard in the draft.

Of course, Afflalo’s deal is relatively team-friendly compared to some of the baggage on the team’s payroll. Hedo Turkoglu’s regrettable five-year, $52.8MM contract is entering its final season, and Turkoglu has admitted he wouldn’t be surprised if the Magic waived him, triggering a partial guarantee worth just $6MM. The final year of Turkoglu's deal doesn’t become fully guaranteed until January, so I could see the Magic keeping him around for a while this summer in hopes of somehow trading him. It nonetheless seems likely that the 13-year veteran has played his final game with Orlando.

That could be the case for Al Harrington, too. Harrington responded to a report that he was considering retirement with the insistence that he wants to play five more years, but with the Magic reportedly set to allow him to work out for other teams in hopes of showcasing him for a trade, it doesn’t look like he’ll be sticking around Orlando. His deal has two more seasons left, worth a total of $14,758,400, but both years are only 50% guaranteed. Harrington was a valuable contributor on a playoff team as recently as a year ago in Denver, and he’s probably slightly more likely than Turkoglu to open the season on the Magic’s roster. If the Magic can’t find a taker for Harrington this summer, they could again try to showcase him before the trade deadline next season.

It appears the Magic will also try to trade Glen Davis. Injuries limited Big Baby to 34 games this past season, but when healthy, he took advantage of his newfound role as a full-time starter, posting 15.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG and a 15.0 PER, all career highs. The team was 12-13 when he went down with a shoulder injury, and though he returned for nine games in January before suffering a season-ending broken foot, the Magic went 8-49 after his initial injury. Despite his relatively positive impact last season, he’s under contract for a total of $13MM the next two years, all of which is fully guaranteed. I’m not sure that less than half a season of productivity is enough to convince another team that he’s ready to pick up where he left off, so the Magic could encounter difficulty in trading Davis similar to their trouble with Turkoglu and Harrington.

The most prominent free agent on the Magic roster is probably Beno Udrih, picked up in the deadline deal that sent J.J. Redick away. Udrih won’t get anything close to the $7.372MM he made this past season, but if the team doesn’t draft its point guard of the future this summer, the veteran who averaged 10.1 points with a tidy 6.1/2.0 assists-to-turnover ratio after the trade could find his way back to Orlando.

The Magic will have plenty of room under the cap this summer, but I don’t expect them to try to sign any of the prominent free agents to a long-term deal. Orlando’s pleasant weather and lack of state income taxes figure to interest a few notable players, but I don’t think any superstars are willing to be a part of the rebuilding there, and the Magic are probably content to move forward with their young players, a la Hennigan’s old team in Oklahoma City. The free agents the Magic sign are likely to come in on one-year deals, or multiyear deals with team options that allow Orlando to open cap room again next summer, when another high draft pick and another year of development for their young core could make the franchise more attractive to 2014’s long list of prominent free agents.

Going 20-62 is not fun, and the team’s trio of inflated contracts present Hennigan with plenty of challenges. Yet there’s reason for optimism in the middle of the Sunshine State, even if the team can’t find takers for its overpaid talent. Four players who made at least 20 starts last season are on rookie-scale contracts, and the team figures to add another to that list through the draft this year. The foundation of a competitive team is already taking shape. The ultimate question is whether Hennigan and the Magic can build a team that will compete for titles, as the Dwight-centric squads of recent vintage did. The franchise's patient approach ensures the answer to that one won't be discovered this offseason.

Additional notes:

  • Undrafted rookie DeQuan Jones was a surprise starter early in the season, but he drifted in and out of the rotation. He was only under contract for one year, so the team can extend a nearly $1MM qualifying offer to have the right to match any offer he gets from another team this summer. I'm not sure the Magic would need to go that length, since Jones might not command more than the minimum salary, which for him would be $788,872. Since the Magic gave Jones his chance, I'd imagine he'd be inclined to take that offer from them over the same money elsewhere, though that's just my speculation.
  • The Magic retain the rights to Fran Vasquez, the 11th pick in the 2005 draft, even though it seems decreasingly likely that he'll play in the NBA. Unless the team signs him this summer, his cap hold will disappear once the season starts.

Cap footnotes:

  1. The Magic waived Richardson at the end of training camp this past year, even though his contract runs through the end of next season. Richardson signed his deal under the old CBA, so he and the Magic aren't necessarily subject to the stretch provision, which would allow Orlando to spread his payment out over five years. The amount Orlando owes Richardson next season could be reduced via set-off rights if he signs with another team.
  2. Turkoglu’s contract is partially guaranteed for $6,000,000.
  3. Harrington’s contract is partially guaranteed for $3,574,300.
  4. O’Quinn’s contract becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before opening night.
  5. Moore’s contract becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Washington Wizards

June 21st, 2013 at 11:32am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options  

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (3rd overall)
  • 2nd Round (38th overall)
  • 2nd Round (54th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $34,850,7391
  • Options: $22,214,7801
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Cap Holds: $12,961,150
  • Total: $70,026,669

The Wizards' hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2012/13 were derailed early by injuries to John Wall and Nene, as the team started off the season with a dismal 4-28 run. Washington also closed out the season with six straight losses, but in between those two portions of the schedule, the team showed there was some reason for optimism going forward, posting a 25-19 record. In 2013/14, the Wizards will be looking to take the next step and earn a postseason berth for the first time since '07/08.

Had the Wizards known that '12/13 would essentially be a lost season, it likely would have had a significant impact on a decision they made last summer, when they dealt Rashard Lewis to the Pelicans in a trade that netted them Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. Turning Lewis' huge expiring contract into a pair of pricey multiyear deals was supposed to help Washington contend in the East right away — the Wizards acknowledged it would eliminate potential cap space for the summer of 2013, but they felt Okaford and Ariza were worthwhile, if slightly overpriced, additions.

Not everyone bought that argument at the time, and it looks even more tenuous now. Okafor and Ariza are both certain to opt in for next season, adding another $22MM+ to the team's books and effectively eliminating any potential cap space that could have been had. If the Wizards had simply allowed Lewis' contract to expire, or perhaps bought him out last season, the club would currently have $38MM+ committed to eight roster spots, including the third overall pick. That would have meant having close to $20MM to spend in free agency or on trades, and you'd have to think Washington could have found a better way to use that money than on Okafor and Ariza, who were solid but unspectacular during their first season with the Wizards.

Still, what's done is done, and even with the veteran duo in the mix, the Wizards should still have the full mid-level exception at its disposal to add another contributor. Given the number of young forwards already under contract, Washington's ideal target may be a third guard to complement Wall and Bradley Beal. A veteran who can play both backcourt positions would be a nice fit for Washington — perhaps someone like Devin Harris or Jerryd Bayless, if he opts out of his deal with the Grizzlies. A center to back up Okafor could also be considered, but the free agent market for centers this summer isn't teeming with a ton of viable options for the Wiz. A player like Samuel Dalembert or Nazr Mohammed could be a decent target, but I wouldn't be surprised if Washington just signs a minimum-salary player or two to shore up its depth in the middle.

Although the Wizards could also pursue a small forward with their mid-level exception, I'm operating under the assumption that Alex Lee of Hoops Rumors is, predicting that Washington will target and land Otto Porter, the top small forward in the draft. The Wizards are said to be prioritizing Porter and Anthony Bennett, both of whom should still be on the board when the team picks at No. 3. Either player would be a great choice, but I'll give the slight edge to Porter, who could be a long-term fixture in Washington alongside Wall and Beal.

Speaking of Wall and the long-term, the former first overall pick will be extension-eligible for the first time this offseason. Washington will have the option of extending Wall before Halloween or seeing him become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2014, and I'd be surprised if the team doesn't opt for the former. A maximum-salary deal is likely, but it will be interesting to see whether the Wizards are willing to make Wall their designated player, locking him up for five more years rather than four.

As we saw when the Timberwolves negotiated an extension with Kevin Love, sometimes teams with two young potential stars will decide to save that designated player tag for the younger player (in Minnesota's case, Ricky Rubio). Beal looks like a star in the making, and it's possible Washington wants to save its five-year extension for him, but I don't think that's likely. Since drafting Wall first overall back in 2010, the Wizards have talked about keeping him in Washington long-term and building around him. I expect we'll see the team back up those words this summer.

Will Wall make a fourth-year leap and become one of the NBA's elite? Will Beal's star continue to rise? Will Nene stay healthy? Will the Wizards be able to land a free-agent contributor or two? Did Jan Vesely's NBA career peak on 2011 draft night? There are plenty of questions that must be answered before we know whether Washington will become a playoff team in the East. But Wall and Beal look like the real deal to me, and the team figures to add another promising young piece in next week's draft. The Wizards are a club on the rise, and a few smart moves this summer could make them a legit sleeper for 2013/14.

Additional notes:

  • Of the Wizards players hitting free agency this summer, Martell Webster looks like the one most likely to return. There's mutual interest in a new deal for Webster, and Wall and Beal are the only guards under contract for next season, so Webster could slot in nicely as a backup at the two.
  • While they won't receive the same attention that Wall will, Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker are also eligible for rookie-scale extensions this offseason. I'd be surprised if we saw either player extended by the Wizards, but it's a possibility.
  • In addition to the No. 3 pick, the Wizards also hold a pair of second-round picks. The team has been working out several NCAA and international players, so it seems one or both of those second-rounders will be used.

Cap footnotes:

  1. At least one report has indicated Okafor and Ariza will opt in for 2013/14, which had been expected. When it becomes official, the Wizards' guaranteed salary will increase to $57,065,519 without factoring in cap holds.
  2. $1,106,099 is the amount of Temple's potential qualifying offer. If the Wizards don't extend a QO, Temple's cap hold will be reduced to $884,293.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

June 19th, 2013 at 2:51pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (41st overall)
  • 2nd Round (60th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $57,867,541
  • Options: $3,135,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,816,296
  • Cap Holds: $15,633,779
  • Total: $78,452,616

Much was made this season of the changing of the guard in Memphis, as new owner Robert Pera assumed control of the franchise from Michael Heisley, while GM Chris Wallace ceded decision-making power to new CEO Jason Levien. Whether or not it was an accurate portrayal, the two men most frequently cited as representative of the struggle of old vs. the new were head coach Lionel Hollins and front office exec John Hollinger.

The Grizzlies' hiring of Hollinger, the former ESPN.com analytics guru, was a signal that the team's brass was interested in embracing a new-school style of thinking, an approach Hollins wasn't necessarily on board with, given his comments after Memphis traded away Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington, and Rudy Gay. It turned out that either the front office or Hollins (or perhaps both) knew what they were doing, as the Grizzlies earned a spot in the Western Conference Finals before being beaten by the Spurs.

The deep playoff run wasn't enough for Hollins to keep his job, however, as he and the team parted ways after the season. Given the philosophical differences between Hollins and the front office, and the typical desire of a new management group to bring in its own coach, the split wasn't a surprise, but it's indicative of the franchise's direction going forward — when it comes to coaching hires, roster management, and player development, the new-look Grizzlies will be forward-thinking and nontraditional.

It will be interesting to see how the Grizzlies' new front office values Tony Allen, as one of the league's top perimeter defenders prepares to hit free agency this summer. Allen is coming off a bargain of a deal, at three years and $9.45MM, and if the Grizzlies could re-sign him for a similar price, I'd imagine they would jump at the opportunity. But Allen's stock has been on the rise over the last several years as his reputation as an elite defender has grown, so he's likely to draw plenty of interest on the open market.

After shedding a couple of multiyear contracts prior to the trade deadline, the Grizzlies have gained a little more long-term financial flexibility. Big salaries for Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley still ensure there isn't a ton of wiggle room, but the Grizzlies only project to have about $58MM committed to eight players, assuming Jerryd Bayless doesn't exercise his player option. Even if Bayless does opt in, the Grizzlies should still have plenty of room to make Allen a competitive offer without approaching tax territory.

Re-signing Allen would likely preclude the pursuit of any other major free agents, however. As we saw this past year, the Grizzlies were willing to send a potential lottery pick to the Cavaliers to avoid paying the tax, so committing, say, $5MM annually to Allen would probably mean the Grizzlies would be filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary signings, with perhaps one player earning more than the minimum but less than the full mid-level (like Bayless).

Would re-signing Allen and tweaking the edges be enough to keep Memphis in contention going forward? Perhaps. Ed Davis figures to get more playing time under a new coach in the hopes that he can produce like he did in Toronto, and the team did thrive in the second half of 2012/13 without Gay. But the Grizzlies also looked overmatched in the Western Finals, and may not have even made it that far had it not been for Russell Westbrook's knee injury.

Letting Allen walk and looking to replace him with another player, or perhaps two or three less-expensive pieces, is one option. But given how much Allen reportedly enjoys playing in Memphis, I could see him taking a bit of a discount to stick around, which will make it hard for the team to find a better value among outside free agents. Additionally, Allen and Randolph have epitomized the Grizzlies' grit-and-grind style over the last couple years. While the two aren't exactly the icons that, for instance, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are in Boston, it almost feels as if the Grizzlies will either move forward with Allen and Randolph, or with neither of them.

That last idea may seem far-fetched, but I don't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility. When the Grizzlies were making their big moves prior to the trade deadline, there were multiple reports suggesting that the team was shopping Randolph, with an eye on moving him at some point. Although the club eventually informed Randolph he wouldn't be going anywhere, that doesn't mean the issue won't come up again at some point. Randolph isn't cheap, and the Grizzlies could decide that turning his contract into a couple more cap-friendly deals, and perhaps letting the inexpensive Davis develop more at power forward, could be in the team's best interests.

Still, I think that's an unlikely scenario for this summer. My best guess is that the Grizzlies will play it fairly safe this offseason, attempting to re-sign Allen and add a complementary piece or two that can help the team return to title contention — a backup point guard and an outside shooter look like the top priorities, especially if Bayless opts out. There may have been a difference of opinions between the new-school Grizzlies front office and the old-school Hollins, but I think both sides would agree that this roster is capable of contending, and doesn't need to be blown up.

Additional notes:

  • The Grizzlies pursued J.J. Redick at the trade deadline, and went after Ray Allen last summer. It will be interesting to see if the team is finally able to land an elite outside shooter this summer. Redick will probably be too expensive, and I doubt Allen signs in Memphis if he opts out of his Miami deal, but perhaps someone like Kyle Korver could be a fit, if the price is right.
  • In my opinion, Austin Daye's value in the three-way Gay trade came primarily as an expiring contract. He has the potential to be a restricted free agent, but it's hard for me to imagine the Grizzlies making him a qualifying offer. I don't think he'll be back in Memphis.
  • On the other hand, Davis, another piece in that deal, may be in line for a longer-term future with the Grizzlies. After not receiving much playing time under Hollins, I expect he'll see more action under a new coach in 2013/14, and he'll also be extension-eligible this offseason. He's not exactly a prime extension candidate, but I think the Grizzlies will at least take a shot at locking him up to a below-market price.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Greene's and Reed's contracts are fully non-guaranteed. Those deals will become fully guaranteed if Green and Reed aren't waived on or before January 7th, 2014.
  2. Daye will be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,135,391.
  3. $1,084,293 is the amount of Leuer's potential qualifying offer. If the Grizzlies don't extend a QO, Leuer's cap hold will be reduced to $884,293.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

June 18th, 2013 at 5:14pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (10th overall)
  • 2nd Round (39th overall)
  • 2nd Round (40th overall)
  • 2nd Round (45th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $43,240,658
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,399,507
  • Cap Holds: $22,078,219
  • Total: $66,718,384

If you were simply perusing the NBA's regular-season standings, you could be forgiven for thinking that the Trail Blazers took a step back this past season. After all, Portland's 33-49 record (.402) was the franchise's worst mark in seven years, and the club took a nosedive at the end of the season, losing its final 13 games.

But consider how the Blazers' roster looks now compared to how it looked after the lockout. The 2011/12 season opened with Nate McMillan on Portland's bench, coaching a veteran-heavy team that included Raymond Felton, Marcus Camby, and Gerald Wallace, among others. Since then, Portland has jettisoned its overpriced veterans, added 2012/13's Rookie of the Year (Damian Lillard), locked up a promising young swingman (Nicolas Batum), and built around a big man who receives perennial All-Star consideration (LaMarcus Aldridge).

In addition to Lillard, Batum, and Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Meyers Leonard look like keepers, and give the Blazers a solid core at positions one through five. But while that five-man unit represents a nice start for Portland, the team's weakness in '12/13 wasn't its starting lineup — it was its bench. With J.J. Hickson starting in Leonard's place, the Blazers' bench was made up primarily of NBA rookies (Leonard, Joel Freeland, Victor Claver, and Will Barton) and unproductive players on rookie deals (Nolan Smith and Luke Babbitt).

The bench figures to be GM Neil Olshey's primary area of concern this offseason, as he enters the summer armed with the 10th overall pick and over $10MM in cap space. Olshey has talked multiple times about making the roster deeper and more flexible, so it's unlikely he'll put all his cap room toward a single player, though a big man like Nikola Pekovic could make a nice target. The more likely scenario involves dividing that cap space and using it on multiple mid-level type players to give the team some productive bench players while its young players continue to develop.

Although a number of mock drafts have the Blazers taking a big man like Steven Adams, I'd be a little surprised if the club targeted a center with the No. 10 pick, considering Leonard remains a work in progress in the middle. Pairing Leonard with another rookie makes less sense to me than having him team up with a veteran who can help him develop. Hickson saw plenty of minutes at the five a year ago, but Portland figures to target a more traditional center rather than playing a power forward out of position again. Chris Kaman looks to me like a good fit, and Jermaine O'Neal has indicated he'd have interest in returning to the Blazers.

Assuming the Blazers don't target size in the draft, a shooter such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or C.J. McCollum would be ideal, as ESPN.com's Chad Ford suggests in his latest mock draft. It's also worth noting that Portland controls three second-round picks, at 39th, 40th, and 45th overall. After incorporating so many rookies a year ago, the Blazers will prefer to add veterans this year, so I'd be surprised if more than one of those second-round picks ends up on the roster next season. It's more likely that the Blazers will use those picks to either facilitate trades or to stash international players overseas.

A backup point guard behind Lillard also figures to be a priority, and the Blazers will have the option of extending a qualifying offer to Eric Maynor, who was acquired from the Thunder in a deadline deal. Given Maynor's performance and injury woes over the last couple seasons, his stock isn't exactly sky-high at the moment, so Portland may decide to pass on the QO and consider him along with a handful of other unrestricted free agents. Mo Williams, Devin Harris, D.J. Augustin, and Will Bynum are among the guys who also could be in the Blazers' price range.

A year ago, the Blazers attempted to make a huge splash by signing Roy Hibbert to a four-year max offer sheet, but they were thwarted by the Pacers, who matched the offer. Hibbert would have provided exactly the sort of rim protection Portland lacked in 2012/13, and it will be interesting to see how the team addresses that issue this summer. Of the top free agent centers, Dwight Howard isn't coming to Portland, Pekovic and Al Jefferson don't offer a whole lot in the way of rim protection, and a pursuit of the injury-plagued Andrew Bynum may cause a riot in Portland. As such, I think we're unlikely to see the Blazers make any huge bids on free agents like they did with Hibbert.

For Portland, this figures to be a summer of filling in a number of holes without spending exorbitantly on any one spot. With all their core players locked up through at least 2015, the Blazers have to focus on adding the right complementary pieces if they want to become a playoff team in the West. The success they have in finding those players may determine how long Aldridge remains in Portland — if the Blazers undergo another losing season in 2013/14, it will likely only be a matter of time before trade rumors start swirling.

Additional notes:

  • I focused more on free agent targets than trade targets for the Blazers, but trades are very much in play for Olshey. One asset to consider when Portland eyes a potential deal is Kostas Papanikolaou, whose agent expects the Blazers to move his client at some point.
  • The Blazers will continue to pay the amnestied Brandon Roy his salary through 2014/15. Assuming Roy doesn't sign elsewhere for the '13/14 season, which looks like a safe bet, he'll receive a $17.89MM salary from Portland.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Pavlovic's contract is fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before January 7th, 2014.
  2. Maynor will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $3,351,387.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Sacramento Kings

June 17th, 2013 at 5:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (7th overall)
  • 2nd Round (36th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $42,073,855
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Cap Holds: $30,987,730
  • Total: $73,061,585

It was a memorable season for the Kings, but not for what they did on the basketball court.  In fact, their 2012/13 was pretty unremarkable, ending in a 28-54 record and their seventh straight playoff-less season.  Instead, their major battles were fought in front of pulpits and inside of courtrooms.  At one point, it seemed like a mortal lock that the Kings would move further up the west coast and become the "new" Seattle SuperSonics, but ultimately, mayor Kevin Johnson and the city of Sacramento came out on top.

They'll be staying put, but with a new cast of characters.  The Maloofs – who aren't the most beloved people in Sac-Town, have sold their controlling interest to Vivek Ranadive.  Keith Smart was removed as head coach after compiling a 48-93 mark across two seasons and replaced by former Warriors assistant Mike Malone.  President Geoff Petrie was let go and Pete D'Alessandro was appointed as the club's new GM, though he was brought in after Malone's appointment.

Now that we have that out of the way, let's talk some basketball.  We know that this year's free agent class boasts not just one, but two elite talents in Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.  While a number of teams have been linked to one or both megastars, the Kings aren't one of them.  Malone mentioned Paul in his introductory press conference (and got the team fined for it, whoops), but the Kings are a long way from contending and they won't get consideration from him or D12.

So, the Kings can take a page out of the Mavericks' playbook from last season and spread the wealth on a handful of free agents on short-term contracts.  They currently have about $41.4MM committed to nine players for next season and can loosen the belt even further by clearing John Salmons' $7.58MM salary off of the books with the amnesty clause.  Sacramento may not be the most appealing free agent destination, but money talks and the mid-tier types rarely get picky over what city they'll play in.

Alternatively, they can sell off some of their more attractive pieces and make an attempt to start from scratch.  Depending on what week it is, the Kings may or may not be willing to part ways with troubled big man DeMarcus Cousins.  D'Alessandro may prefer to keep the talented Kentucky product and Malone is excited to work with him, but make no mistake about it: the phone lines will be open and the right package can pry him loose.  We know that the Bobcats are one of the many teams with serious interest in Boogie and with pressure to get something going in the near future, their No. 4 pick could certainly be involved in a deal.

As it stands, the Kings hold their own No. 7 pick in next week's draft and no one seems to have the inside track on what they're planning to do.  Part of that has to do with the general chaos of the entire draft board (heck, we don't even know what the Cavs are thinking at No. 1) but it speaks more to the lack of clarity we have on what the rest of the roster will look like.  However, several draft gurus (most notably, ESPN.com's Chad Ford and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress) have them pegged to take Michigan's Trey Burke.  He may be undersized, but Burke would give Sacramento a true one guard who has shown the ability to perform under pressure.

We saw the winds of change completely overhaul the Kings' franchise off the court, it'll now be interesting to see where the summer takes their on-court product.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Because he met certain criteria during the 2012/13 season, Thomas' previously nonguaranteed contract is now fully guaranteed.
  2. The Kings bought out Brooks in March, and this portion of his salary remains on their books for 2013/14.
  3. The Kings' three restricted free agents will be eligible for qualifying offers of $6,927,157 (Evans), $3,950,869 (Johnson), and $3,101,820 (Douglas), respectively.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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