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Offseason Outlook: Indiana Pacers

June 16th, 2013 at 12:06pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (23rd overall)
  • 2nd Round (53rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $48,998,027
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $930,000
  • Cap Holds: $29,700,213
  • Total: $79,628,240

It may take a while for many in Indiana to get over the disappointment of a Game Seven loss in the Eastern Conference Finals, but there's no denying that this past season was a rousing success for the Pacers. The team went a step farther than it did last year in the playoffs even though Danny Granger, its top scorer from each of the previous five seasons, was injured and missed all but five games. Paul George blossomed in Granger's stead, making his first All-Star Game, winning the Most Improved Player of the Year award, and vaulting into superstar status as he went mano-a-mano with LeBron James in the playoffs. Roy Hibbert bounced back from an offensive slump in the first half of the season and continued to establish himself as an elite interior defender, especially against the Heat, proving the value of the four-year, $58.4MM contract the Pacers gave him last summer.

Now the Pacers must decide if their success this season justifies moving on from Granger, a 30-year-old former All-Star entering the final season of his contract. The Pacers are reportedly leaning toward keeping him, but there would be no shortage of teams interested in Granger if the Pacers want to put him on the market. Whether the Pacers decide to pull the trigger on a deal could come down to the strength of the trade proposals they receive. Indiana could clearly use some bench production, and Granger could be a potent sixth man if the team opts to use him in that role. He'd be an overpaid reserve, but his contract expires after this coming season, just when the Pacers will need to have more money available for George's next deal. It would be difficult for another team to put together a package of players who could equal Granger's production and whose contracts are up after one season like his is. So, unless there are some enticing first-round picks involved to sweeten the pot, the Pacers may be content to keep Granger for themselves.

The Pacers most assuredly want to hang on to David West, too, and team president Donnie Walsh has deemed re-signing the unrestricted free agent as priority No. 1. There's little reason to expect they won't get a deal done, particularly given West's repeated comments about his desire to return. Executives around the league reportedly expect West to draw offers for three or four years with an annual salary of $11-13MM, and that's just the range the Pacers were hoping to sign him for. I wouldn't be surprised if a team enamored with his toughness and consistent scoring ability floated an offer that exceeds that range, but many front offices will be wary of overpaying a 32-year-old with a torn ACL on his medical history. Barring the unlikely event of a max offer for West from another team, which would be four years starting at around $20MM, I expect him back with the Pacers.

West isn't the only Pacer who could wind up with a lucrative long-term deal this offseason. The Pacers have from July until the end of October to negotiate an extension for Paul George and keep him from restricted free agency in 2014. Indiana would still have plenty of leverage if it got to that point, but George appears to be a rare talent, particularly in such a small market. Walsh and GM Kevin Pritchard would do well to show George that they want him around for the long haul.

The most significant question may not be whether they'll give George an extension, but how long that extension will be for. They could make the deal for five years, but any extension that stretches beyond a fourth season would make him the team's designated player. That distinction would preclude the Pacers from signing anyone else coming off a rookie contract to a five-year extension, but no one else on the roster is likely to warrant that. The maximum George can get wouldn't be known until after he signs the extension. At the moment, he'd be eligible for a max with a starting salary worth 25% of the salary cap in 2014/15, which would mean a five-year deal would be worth around $80MM. If he wins the MVP or, more likely, makes an All-NBA Team again, he would be eligible for 30% of the cap, pushing a five-year extension to a total of about $100MM. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pacers push to work out an arrangement similar to the one the Thunder had with Russell Westbrook, in which Westbrook agreed to stay at the 25% max even if he became eligible for the 30% max. 

Either way, George is in line for a significant raise, yet an extension wouldn't kick in until 2014/15, meaning he'll remain a bargain on his rookie contract for the upcoming season. Tyler Hansbrough's rookie deal is up this summer, but even though he entered the league as a No. 13 pick with about as much fanfare as George, who was taken 10th overall, Hansbrough's current situation is drastically different. He's been more efficient than most bench players, having put up a 15.3 PER this year that nearly mirrors his 15.4 career number, but he saw fewer minutes per game this season than ever before. The Pacers tried to find takers for Hansbrough, along with D.J. Augustin and Gerald Green, a pair of underwhelming bench pieces, at the trade deadline, but had no luck. Now, Hansbrough is eligible for restricted free agency, and his $4.1MM qualifying offer amount is about the same as the annual salary the Pacers are paying Ian Mahinmi, the other bench big man in their rotation. Keeping two bigs on the floor as often as possible is part of the team's ethos, but presuming West re-signs for $12MM a year and the team brings back Hansbrough for an amount equivalent to his qualifying offer, the Pacers would be paying $34.5MM to four bigs next season. That's a figure that takes the team nearly halfway to luxury tax territory, and only two of the four bigs can be in the lineup at the same time. Indiana may prefer a cheaper option — perhaps Jeff Pendergraph, another restricted free agent who performed capably in limited minutes for the Pacers this season.

Augustin seems even less likely to return than Hansbrough, unless the point guard takes a significant paycut from his $3.5MM salary this past season. The five-year veteran put up career lows across the board, and while much of that had to do with his reduced playing time, he didn't play efficiently in the minutes he did see, since this season's 11.0 PER was a low watermark as well. Walsh and Pritchard could look to the draft to find a replacement for Augustin. The Pacers aren't likely to land a starting-caliber player with the No. 23 pick, but they might come across a backup point guard capable of stepping into that role immediately.

The free agent reserve the Pacers might be most interested in retaining is the same one they waived in January and re-signed three weeks later. Sam Young showed his worth in the playoffs as a defender who could make LeBron sweat, and he should be able to command a seven-figure salary for the first time in his career. The Pacers can use his Non-Bird rights to ink him to a four-year deal worth as much as $4.866MM, and while I don't think he'll get a contract that lengthy, a two- or three-year deal with annual salaries in the $1.2MM range sounds about right.

Perhaps the easiest decision that Walsh and Pritchard have will be to fully guarantee the contract of starting shooting guard Lance Stephenson, who's set to make slightly more than the minimum. Next season is the last on the four-year deal to which the Pacers shrewdly signed Stephenson after they drafted him in the second round in 2010, so he's eligible for an extension. The front office will probably wait to see how much West, and perhaps George, wind up making before entering such talks with Stephenson, but the matter isn't pressing. Stephenson and the team can negotiate an extension all the way until June 30th of next year, unlike with George, a former first-round pick whose rookie-scale contract falls under a different set of rules that call for an October 31st extension deadline.

The Pacers are faced with many decisions this offseason, but the growth of George, as well as Stephenson, has given them enticing options. Granger has become expendable, but there's still one more season before keeping him together with West and George becomes financially unfeasible. Indiana can dangle Granger in exchange for future upgrades, or bank on his recovery from injury and make a strong push for the title next season. That's the storyline that may truly define the team's summer. 

Cap footnotes:

  1. Stephenson's contract becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 15th.
  2. The qualifying offer for Hansbrough is $4,135,391, which is less than 250% of his salary in 2012/13. The cap hold for a former first-rounder who made less than the league average salary in the fourth season of his rookie-scale contract is always the greater of those two amounts in the summer after his rookie deal expires. Hansbrough's QO would have been $4,225,423, but it was reduced because he failed to meet the league's starter criteria.
  3. The qualifying offer for Pendergraph is $1,875,000, which is slightly less than 130% of his salary in 2012/13. The cap hold for an Early Bird free agent who isn't coming off the second year of a rookie-scale contract is always the greater of those two amounts.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Charlotte Bobcats

June 14th, 2013 at 8:18pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (4th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $26,961,207
  • Options: $13,200,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $916,099
  • Cap Holds: $35,130,223
  • Total: $76,207,529 

Perhaps the two most compelling news items for Bobcats fans may have happened within the past month, as the team announced it will change its name to the Hornets in 2014/15 and hired Patrick Ewing as the lead assistant to new head coach Steve Clifford. Certainly there's been little on the court for Charlotte to get excited about, since the team is a combined 28-120 over the last two seasons. At least the Bobcats couldn't be accused of tanking this year, since they won their final three games of the season to move past the Magic in the standings. Of course, that meant the team was 5.1% less likely to win the No. 1 draft choice and 8.5% less likely to wind up with a top-three pick, and that manifested in the 'Cats slipping to fourth in the draft order.

Charlotte probably won't be missing out on a superstar as a result, given the weakness at the top of this year's field of prospects, but it's clear the draft plays a significant role for the team as it tries to climb out of the dregs of the league. Three of the players with the team's five highest guaranteed salaries for next season are on rookie-scale contracts. Still, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo haven't developed into stars, and neither has Gerald Henderson, the team's lottery pick from 2009 who's up for restricted free agency this summer. As part of a meeting with season ticketholders in March, GM Rich Cho was asked about the weakness of this year's draft and pointed instead to next year's class, which looks much stronger. The Bobcats could have as many as three first-round picks next year, but unless the Bobcats unearth a gem from this year's crop, there will be little reason for optimism based on the team's track record in the draft.

Owner Michael Jordan told that same group of season ticketholders to expect plenty of change this summer, and the team has already hired Clifford to replace Mike Dunlap, who lasted just one season as coach. The Bobcats have the cap flexibility to make the changes Jordan promised, even if Ben Gordon opts into his $13.2MM salary for next season, which seems inevitable. The team could amnesty Tyrus Thomas, who has two years and $18,082,645 left on his contract, to create more cap room. Given the seven-year veteran's career-worst 4.8 points per game and .353 field goal percentage this year, I wouldn't expect Thomas back with Charlotte next season.

Amnestying Thomas would give the team enough cap room to pursue a marquee free agent like Dwight Howard or Chris Paul, but neither of them will likely spend a minute thinking about the Bobcats this summer, even though Paul is a North Carolina native. Last year's offseason, in which Ramon Sessions was the team's most noteworthy free agent signing, signaled how difficult it will be for the Bobcats to attract even the most pedestrian of players. The Bobcats used a less conventional means of acquiring talent last summer when they claimed Brendan Haywood off amnesty waivers from the Mavericks, and if another worthy target gets amnestied this summer, I wouldn't be surprised to see Charlotte make another claim. Picking players off the scrapheap isn't exactly the most effective method of rebuilding, however.

I expect Cho and president of basketball operations Rod Higgins to pursue trades this summer. The 'Cats don't have many attractive assets on the playing roster, but they have a wealth of draft picks, and they could use their cap space to absorb an overpaid player from another team. That doesn't make them unique, though, as other clubs could put together packages that are just as attractive, if not more so. There's been speculation that the Bobcats could pursue a Chris Bosh trade, but I don't think the Heat will be ready to unload a core piece of their championship team for cap space and draft picks until it's proven that their title-winning opportunities are behind them. Bosh can opt out of his deal after next season anyway, so I sincerely doubt the Bobcats would mortgage the future to bring on a player who might be gone after just one season. 

The Bobcats would be better served by setting their sights on someone signed to a long-term deal, though that may once more necessitate taking on less-than-marquee talent. It's difficult to build a team from the bottom up in a small market, but Michael Jordan's ownership is an ace in the hole. If the club becomes a consistent playoff team that's a player or two away from title contention, the specter of playing for Jordan might just be enough to lure a superstar who dreams of lifting the Larry O'Brien trophy with His Airness. Still, that's a strategy based on assumptions and what-ifs, and the fact that Jordan oversaw the rapid dismantling of the franchise's only playoff team suggests the owner isn't banking on merely appearing in the postseason.

The Bobcats are reportedly talking to the Bucks about the 15th overall pick, though it's unclear whether that means Charlotte is willing to give up the No. 4 pick or simply wants to acquire an additional first-round selection. In any case, the draft will continue to figure in the team's plans, and the Bobcats will have to start making more hits than misses. Higgins and Cho could try to be patient, eschew drastic moves, and hope for better lottery luck leading up to next year's highly touted draft class. I don't think that would be in keeping with Jordan's promise of change to the team's season ticketholders, but there doesn't appear to be a quick fix available.

Additional notes:

  • Henderson was the team's second-leading scorer this past season, and though he's not a breakout star, the Bobcats may be inclined to match any reasonable offer he sees in restricted free agency. I don't expect him to warrant an annual salary for much more than his approximately $4.5MM qualifying offer, but I could see him winding up with a three- or four-year offer equivalent to the value of the full mid-level exception, with a starting salary of $5.15MM. If so, the Bobcats would probably match.
  • Players accepting their qualifying offers used to be a rare occurence, but it's happened with more frequency the last couple of years, and that may be the route Byron Mullens takes. Unlike Henderson, I don't think Mullens could do any better than $4.5MM. He was a rotation regular despite his paltry 31.7% three-point shooting on 3.9 attempts per game this season, and the Bobcats may be willing to slightly overpay the 24-year-old big man to see if he can show more progress next season. That could lead both sides into the low-risk one-year agreement.
  • Josh McRoberts, who saw more playing time in his partial season with Charlotte than at any other point in his six-year NBA career, could be another player the Bobcats bring back at an above-market price. He just finished a two-year, $6.135MM deal, and a similar arrangement might be enough to bring him back, perhaps with a team option for 2014/15. Re-signing Mullens and McRoberts to deals the team can get out of after just one year would allow Charlotte to maintain flexibility for next summer's more fertile free agent class.

Cap footnotes:

  1. The qualifying offer for Henderson is $4,531,459, which is less than 250% of his salary in 2012/13. The cap hold for a former first-rounder who made less than the league average salary in the fourth season of his rookie-scale contract is always the greater of those two amounts in the summer after his rookie deal expires. Thus, Henderson's cap hold is greater than his qualifying offer, even though his qualifying offer received a slight bump because he met the starter criteria this season.
  2. The same is true for Mullens, the 24th pick in the 2009 draft. Mullens, who was originally in line for a qualifying offer of $3,293,976, nearly failed to meet the starter criteria. He was removed from the starting lineup late in the season after having made 40 starts, one shy of the minimum, but wound up making one more start, on March 24th against the Heat. Thus, his QO is $4,531,459, identical to Henderson's.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 14th, 2013 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (1st overall)
  • 1st Round (19th overall)
  • 2nd Round (31st overall)
  • 2nd Round (33rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $27,483,284
  • Options: $4,515,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,120,814
  • Cap Holds: $36,772,032
  • Total: $72,891,130

Undergoing a full-scale rebuild in the NBA requires strong scouting, player development, and cap management, but you could make the argument that the most important factor is luck. Take the Kings, for instance. Sacramento has posted a dismal 187-371 record over the last seven seasons, landing in the draft lottery every single year. However, even when they were the NBA's worst team in 2008/09, the Kings only landed the fourth overall pick, and never selected higher than that. Many of the team's signings and trades have been questionable, but its draft picks have been solid enough — the club just never picked high enough to land a true franchise player.

The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have had an exceptional string of luck since one of the worst nights in franchise history, when LeBron James made his infamous "Decision." In the three subsequent draft lotteries, the Cavs have overcome unlikely odds to land a pair of first overall picks, drafting Kyrie Irving the first time around and now looking to add another difference-maker in the 2013 draft.

So far, that luck hasn't translated into on-court success, but the assets the Cavs have at their disposal represent a general manager's dream. During a rebuild, teams typically target young players, cap flexibility, and draft picks. The Cavs have a ton of all three, including three recent top-four picks (Irving, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters) with another on the way, only about $27.48MM in guaranteed 2013/14 salary, and the potential for an incredible 13 picks (seven first-rounders) in the next three drafts.

Given the young talent already in place on the roster, it's no surprise that the Cavs are willing to sacrifice some of the picks and cap room they've accumulated to trade for a veteran star. In another year, dangling that first overall pick would be enough to engage in serious discussions for an established All-Star like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge. However, because this year's draft is viewed as weak at the top, a report suggesting the Cavs would part with the No. 1 pick as part of a package for Love was met with a shrug — of course they would.

The low relative value of the No. 1 pick this year is especially problematic for the Cavs since owner Dan Gilbert is expecting a playoff berth in 2013/14. That means that drafting Nerlens Noel, who is widely considered the player with the most upside in this year's class, may not be the most viable option for Cleveland, since Noel is expected to spend much of the season recovering from ACL surgery.

Still, if the Cavs are unable to find a palatable trade to add a star to complent Irving, there will be no shortage of alternate options for the team. In fact, there are so many different directions the team could go that it's virtually impossible to make any predictions with any confidence. Consider the following possible approaches for the team, all of which seem viable to me:

  1. Trading the No. 1 pick and various other assets for a star.
  2. Drafting Noel, continuing to acquire more assets using their cap room (for instance, turning two or three second-round picks into the Mavs' No. 13 pick and Shawn Marion), and preparing to make a bigger splash in the summer of 2014, when the draft and free agent classes will both be stronger.
  3. Drafting a player that could contribute immediately, such as Otto Porter or Ben McLemore, and using the cap room to target other high-upside players such as Nikola Pekovic, Andrew Bynum, and/or O.J. Mayo.
  4. Drafting an immediate contributor and using the cap room to target trade candidates with one remaining year on their contracts (ie. Danny Granger) or free agents who would sign one-year deals, so the team could contend for a playoff spot and still reload in the summer of '14.
  5. Some combination of the above strategies, perhaps involving trading down in the draft, or using Anderson Varejao's pseudo-expiring contract (it's partially guaranteed in 2014/15) as a trade chip.

The Cavs may not be one of the NBA's most desirable free agent destinations at this point, but even if they have trouble recruiting veterans to Cleveland, the Cavs still have so much flexibility that they should be able to add talent without being a big player in free agency. And we haven't even discussed the possibility of the Cavs eventually pursuing a reunion with LeBron in the summer of 2014. I'm less bullish on that idea than I once was, especially if the Heat continue to win championships, but Varejao's partial guarantee is the only non-rookie-contract money on Cleveland's books for 2014/15 so far, so cap room shouldn't be an issue.

The Cavaliers' young core has undergone some growing pains over the last several seasons, and it's possible that Thompson and Waiters weren't the optimal choices for the Cavs in their respective drafts. But there's so much talent on the roster and so many avenues for the team to continue adding more talent that it's hard not to be optimistic about the future in Cleveland. The Cavs' choice at first overall in this month's draft remains shrouded in mystery, and the same could be said about the rest of the team's offseason, which could go in any number of directions. I'll be looking forward to see where the club ends up in the fall.

Additional notes:

  • Of the team's free agents, I'd be surprised if Luke Walton, Daniel Gibson, or Omri Casspi returned, unless perhaps it was on a minimum-salary contract. However, I could see the Cavs deciding to re-sign Wayne Ellington, and there's no guarantee that Marreese Speights will opt out of the final year of his contract, worth $4.52MM.
  • Bringing back Speights and Ellington would compromise the club's flexibility somewhat, but if we assume Speights opts in, Cleveland uses both its first-round picks, and Ellington re-signs for an annual salary in the neighborhood of $3MM, there will still only be about $40MM in salary commitments on the Cavs' books.
  • Although the Cavs have four players (Irving, Thompson, Waiters, and Tyler Zeller) on rookie deals, none are extension-eligible this offseason. Irving and Thompson will be eligible for extensions during the 2014 offseason.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Miles', Quinn's, and Jones' contracts are all fully non-guaranteed, with no guarantee date.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Pistons

June 11th, 2013 at 6:57pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (8th overall)
  • 2nd Round (37th overall)
  • 2nd Round (56th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $28,756,686
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $6,288,872
  • Cap Holds: $55,731,6395
  • Total: $90,777,197

The last time Pistons president Joe Dumars had this much cap flexibility, he flubbed it, signing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva to lucrative long-term deals. Gordon is off the books, at the cost of a future first-round pick sent to Charlotte via trade, while Villanueva remains, with one year left on his deal. There were rumors toward the end of this past season that Dumars might not have another crack at remaking the roster over the summer, and executives had been keeping an eye on the team's coaching search to gauge Dumars' standing with owner Tom Gores, who retained Phil Jackson as a pro-bono adviser. 

Maurice Cheeks got the coaching job, and presumed Jackson favorite Brian Shaw apparently never received an interview, so it looks like Dumars still wields the hammer in Detroit. Whether the Hall of Fame guard continues his nearly 30-year association with the team for much longer may rest on the outcome of this offseason. Now that the team's nearly two-month coaching search is over, Dumars' attention must shift to a series of decisions he has to make before free agency begins in July.

The Pistons have a draft pick in the middle of the lottery for the fourth straight year, and they've chosen wisely so far, nabbing Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. The jury's still out on Brandon Knight, but there's still a chance he could develop into another steal. Rodney Stuckey, a find from the middle of the first round in 2007, faces an uncertain future. The Pistons can either keep him for the final season of his contract or save $4.5MM of his $8.5MM salary and part ways with him by June 30th. That's one day after Dumars has to make a $1MM call on whether to fully guarantee the contract of backup center Slava Kravtsov, who saw action in only 25 games as a rookie this past season. 

Dumars and the Pistons will have to continue to move swiftly once the July Moratorium is over on July 10th. Eight-year veteran Jose Calderon has a cap hold equivalent to the maximum salary for a player of his experience, and that will likely tie up more than $16MM on the team's books. Dumars wants to re-sign him, but probably not for the max. Most high-priority players and teams come to agreements during the moratorium and wait to make their deals official once the date passes, but if the former Raptors point guard hesitates to make his decision, the Pistons must give serious consideration to renouncing his rights to make room for other free agents. The same goes for Corey Maggette, whom the Pistons also reportedly want to re-sign. His cap hold is for more than $16MM, too, and if Maggette holds out for more than the minimum-salary deal the Pistons would likely offer, the team will almost assuredly renounce his rights, too. Dumars also must decide by July 12th whether to guarantee Kim English's contract.

Renouncing a player's rights doesn't mean the team can't re-sign the player. It just means the team loses whatever non-Bird, Early Bird or full Bird rights it had to go over the salary cap to do so. At most, the Pistons will have around $30MM worth of cap space, but if they don't renounce the rights to at least a few of their players, they'll never officially go below the cap. Still, it would be surprising if they didn't wind up with cap room, especially since they appear ready to move on from Jason Maxiell and Will Bynum, whom they talked about trading at the deadline.

Another way to create cap space would be to amnesty Villanueva. His is the only contract remaining from before the lockout, aside from the rookie-scale deal of Monroe, who most assuredly won't be amnestied. Villanueva is entering the final year of his pact, so if any Piston winds up on amnesty waivers, it would be Villanueva and it would be this summer. The 28-year-old returned to Detroit's rotation this past year after appearing in only 13 games in 2011/12, but his contributions hardly merit a salary in excess of $8.5MM next season. The only reason Dumars might not amnesty Villanueva is if the team simply doesn't want to spend extra money on a player who wouldn't be on the roster next year, but I don't think owner Tom Gores wants to pinch pennies like that. Villanueva seems like a goner.

If the Pistons ink Calderon for a starting salary somewhere between $6MM and $8MM a year, as many scribes predict, they'd have enough flexibility to sign a marquee, max-money free agent, regardless of whether Villanueva is still on the books. Of course, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul don't seem likely to wind up in Detroit until their respective teams make road trips there next season. There have been few, if any, rumblings suggesting anyone from the next tier of free agents, like Andrew Bynum, Josh Smith and Al Jefferson, would consider Detroit, either. Some of those names could surface come July, once free agents begin to speak with teams, but I still wouldn't be surprised if Dumars decides to give Calderon the only long-term deal and hands out a bunch of smaller, one-year contracts, a la the Mavericks last summer. It seemed Dumars felt compelled to use his cap space on long-term deals in 2010, when Gordon and Villanueva came aboard, and I don't think he'll make that mistake again. Rolling over the cap space until 2014 would give the Pistons flexibility in what's shaping up as a much deeper free agent market, and competition in a crowded pool could drive a star to Detroit.

A conservative approach this summer would also give the team breathing room as it approaches negotiations with Monroe. That won't be as pressing a matter as so many of the team's offseason decisions will be, since the deadline to lock him up before he hits restricted free agency isn't until October 31st. Still, Monroe figures to warrant a four-year deal for somewhere between $45MM and $50MM based on the rookie-scale extensions handed out around the league last season. The Pistons probably don't want to become a taxpaying team when Monroe's next deal kicks in come 2014/15, so whatever they do this summer will likely be done with a hefty raise for Monroe in mind.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Villanueva exercised his player option for 2013/14 on May 13th.
  2. Stuckey's deal becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before June 30th.
  3. Kravtsov's deal becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before June 29th.
  4. English's deal becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 12th.
  5. Calderon's cap hold will be worth the maximum salary for a player with his experience (7-9 years). That amount is not yet known — the number listed was 2012/13's max salary, so it figures to be a little higher than that.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks

June 11th, 2013 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (13th overall)
  • 2nd Round (44th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $27,898,653
  • Options: $13,517,696
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,577,744
  • Cap Holds: $36,862,129
  • Total: $79,856,222

Of all the teams whose offseasons we've previewed so far, few, if any, have had their summer plans discussed and critiqued as often as the Mavericks. As soon as the team missed out on Deron Williams a year ago and settled for a handful of players on one-year contracts, the focus in Dallas shifted to what the Mavs would do this summer. It's now been two seasons since team management broke up the core of the 2011 championship roster, and as Dirk Nowitzki inches closer to the end of his playing career, patience appears to be wearing thin among local fans and media.

The thinking, back in 2011, was that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement would make it too costly to re-sign Tyson Chandler and J.J Barea and keep together a team that surprised many by beating the Heat in the 2011 Finals. Not only that, but taking payroll into tax territory would limit the team's ability to be flexible and make creative roster moves down the road. Owner Mark Cuban suggested that for the team to be a long-term contender, maintaining that flexibility was necessary. After the Mavs finished 10th in the West in 2012/13, fans are still waiting for Cuban to deliver on that promise of contention.

I don't disagree with Cuban's logic, and I think re-signing Chandler and Barea to the sort of deals they received from other teams would have been ill-advised. But there are other factors in the league's new CBA that have made it difficult for the Mavs to bring in elite outside talent. For one, rival suitors for free agents can no longer offer the same amount of years that the free agent's own team can. When Dallas pursued D-Will last summer, the Mavs only had the flexibility to offer him a four-year, $73.35MM contract, while the Nets could (and did) offer five years and $98.77MM. Maybe it was actually a poorly-timed filming of Shark Tank that convinced Williams to remain with the Nets, but I imagine that extra $25MM+ was a factor as well.

The Mavs have an attractive leadership group in place – Cuban running the franchise, Rick Carlisle coaching the team, and Nowitzki still thriving on the court – and Texas' lack of state taxes will always attract the interest of free agents. But the Mavs' pitches to Chris Paul and Dwight Howard this summer will have to be awfully convincing for one of them to ultimately end up in Dallas. After all, the Mavs' competition will be able to try to lure Paul and/or Howard by pointing to a talented young core (Rockets), possible cap space to sign both players (Hawks), or that extra year and extra money (Clippers for CP3, Lakers for D12).

The Mavericks' pursuit of elite free agents is further complicated by the fact that the club won't even have the cap room necessary to make one maximum offer without making another move or two. The most logical solution, which the team is reportedly pursuing, would be to package Shawn Marion with their lottery pick (No. 13) in a trade for multiple second-round picks. Unlike that first-rounder, second-round picks don't come with guaranteed cap holds, so the Mavs would be able to clear significant money off the cap in that sort of deal. Eliminating Marion and the cap hold for the lottery pick would give Dallas the flexibility to sign Paul or Howard to a maximum-salary contract and still have room for a couple more mid-tier free agents.

However, that plan relies heavily on either Paul or Howard coming to Dallas. Otherwise, the team will be giving up a veteran contributor (Marion) and a lottery pick for a chance to make a run at a group of second-tier free agents that will likely include Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Josh Smith, Brandon Jennings, and others. There are some good players in that group, and if Dallas could land one of them, add a point guard (Jarrett Jack or Jose Calderon would be nice fits), and fill out the rest of the roster with solid contributors, the offseason wouldn't be a disaster. But those additions almost certainly wouldn't be enough to restore the club to contender status, and anything short of that will likely be viewed as a disappointment by a fanbase with high expectations.

It's a tricky spot that Cuban and the Mavs find themselves in this summer, without any real leverage when it comes to landing top free agents. Unlike other clubs with cap space, the Mavs don't even have a wealth of trade assets — a future first-round pick is ticketed for the Thunder, and Jared Cunningham and Jae Crowder currently represent the team's only young prospects. Free agency is the team's best bet at landing a difference-maker, but to have a real shot at those elite players, Cuban will have to assume a role opposite the one he plays on the aforementioned Shark Tank, selling free agents on the Mavs with a convincing pitch of his own.

I don't expect Mavs management to settle for an offseason like 2012's, in which the team ended up with a handful of short-term solutions on one-year deals, so I'm looking forward to seeing Cuban and GM Donnie Nelson swing for the fences this summer. Given how creative they've been in the past, I'm cautiously optimistic they'll end up making the big splash fans have been waiting for, but there's certainly no clear-cut path to such a move.

Additional notes:

  • Another way for the Mavs to eliminate the cap hold for the No. 13 pick from their books is to draft an international player, with both sides agreeing that the player will spend another year overseas. Dario Saric might be open to such an arrangement, but there's no other obvious candidate unless the Mavs reach on a lesser prospect.
  • Vince Carter would have some trade value, but the Mavs were reluctant to move him at the 2012 deadline, which makes me believe the team thinks he's too good a bargain to give up, at only about $3MM per year. I'd say he and Nowitzki are probably the only locks to be on the 2013/14 roster.

Cap footnotes:

  1. At least one report has already indicated Mayo will decline this player option, making him a free agent. When that decision becomes official, his cap hold will be $4,824,000.
  2. Akognon's contract is currently fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before December 1st.
  3. James' contract is currently fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 15th.
  4. Because he met the starter criteria, Collison will now be eligible for a qualifying offer of $4,531,459 rather than $3,342,175.
  5. Beaubois will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $3,271,952.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Knicks

June 7th, 2013 at 12:28pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (24th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $71,662,5113
  • Options: $2,932,742
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $916,099
  • Cap Holds: $7,396,509
  • Total: $82,907,8613

When the second-seeded Knicks were knocked out of the postseason in the Eastern Conference Semifinals by the Pacers, it was viewed by some as the end of a disappointing 2012/13 campaign. While losing to a lesser seed in the playoffs is always frustrating, I'd argue it was a disappointing end to an otherwise successful season for the Knicks. As I noted when I revisited Hoops Rumors' preseason predictions last week, only two of our writers predicted New York would place higher than sixth in the East, while no one thought the team would be higher than a fourth seed. And we weren't the only ones — plenty of other pundits had the same outlook for the club.

The Knicks may have outperformed overall expectations this past year, but based on the team's current roster construction, that's not necessarily a reason for optimism going forward. Last summer, the Knicks took advantage of what might be their last chance to consummate sign-and-trade deals for several years by acquiring veteran players like Marcus Camby and Raymond Felton. When added to a team salary that already includes massive, eight-figure annual salaries for Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler, those deals don't leave a whole little of wiggle room to make further upgrades.

If any of those contracts were coming off the books this summer, there'd be reason to expect some roster overhaul, but Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler, Felton, and Steve Novak are all under contract through 2015, while Camby has a small guarantee on his deal for 2014/15. The retirement of Jason Kidd helped the team's cap situation, particularly since the veteran point guard reportedly agreed to forgo his entire remaining salary, a more selfless gesture than you'll see from many other retiring players. But even with Kidd's $3.09MM salary off the books, the Knicks already have so much guaranteed money committed in '13/14 and '14/15 that they're over the tax threshold in both seasons.

For taxpaying teams, there are generally four ways to attempt to improve the roster, outside of simply signing players to minimum-salary deals: Drafting players, making trades (though sign-and-trades are no longer an option), using the taxpayer mid-level exception to sign free agents, and using some form of Bird exception to re-sign your own free agents.

The Knicks actually have a draft pick this season, albeit only a single first-rounder. At No. 24, the team could look to target a point guard, though the one they reportedly "really like" (Shane Larkin) is a good bet to be off the board by then. Whether they end up drafting a point guard or another player, it'd be nice to see New York add a little more youth to a roster whose 2012/13 rookies were 28 (Chris Copeland) and 35 (Pablo Prigioni).

The current lack of youth on the Knicks' roster means pulling off a trade will be tricky. Carmelo isn't going anywhere, and other big contracts like Stoudemire's and Chandler's would be difficult to move. Camby and Novak don't have much trade value, while Felton is more valuable to the Knicks than he would be in a trade. That leaves Iman Shumpert as the team's main trade asset, and I can't imagine he's going anywhere this summer, which means we shouldn't expect a blockbuster deal from New York.

The taxpayer's mid-level exception, which can be used to sign one or more players, may be the Knicks' greatest weapon this offseason. With a maximum value of three years and close to $10MM, the MLE certainly won't attract top-tier free agents, but we've seen in the past that solid veteran players are often willing to take a discount to play for a contending team, particularly when that team plays in New York. If the Knicks choose to shop for a point guard with their MLE, for instance, perhaps a player like Jarrett Jack or Mo Williams, who could otherwise earn more than $3MM+ annually, would consider signing in New York.

While using their MLE on an outside free agent may be the Knicks' best chance at bringing in another talented contributor, it could also compromise the team's ability to bring back those aforementioned rookies. Copeland and Prigioni are restricted free agents this summer, and because the Knicks only hold non-Bird rights on both players, the club may have to dip into its MLE to match offers on one or both guys, if it hopes to retain them.

Although the Knicks' lack of Bird rights for Copeland and Prigioni is problematic, the team has a little more flexibility when it comes to re-signing J.R. Smith. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year will decline his player option for next season, but hopes to re-sign with the club. Using Smith's Early Bird rights, the Knicks could bring him back for up to four years for an amount in excess of $20MM.

Considering all the long-term deals already on their books, I can't imagine the Knicks would be overly enthusiastic about handing out another one, but based on Smith's 2012/13 performance, getting him for between $5-6MM annually would be a very solid value. It also appears that Smith would be willing to turn down more lucrative offers to remain in New York, considering he signed a below-market contract last summer to stay with the Knicks. So a reunion between the two sides seems probable.

When the dust settles, the Knicks' 2013/14 roster figures to look fairly similar to the '12/13 team. New York's ability to attract veteran free agents at below-market prices may land the team an extra contributor or two, and perhaps the club can strike gold with the 24th overall pick in the draft. But for the most part, we should expect to see the same general core that led the team to a second-place finish in the East this past season.

It's hard to complain much about tweaking the edges of a 54-win team in hopes that a few minor changes will make a difference. But in New York, where expectations are always high, that may not be good enough. GM Glen Grunwald talked earlier this offseason about trying to come up with "creative" ways to improve the roster this summer, so we'll have to wait and see what he has up his sleeve to turn this roster into one capable of getting past the Heat and the Pacers next spring.

Additional notes:

  • To follow up on the Kidd point, retiring veteran players will often agree to a buyout on their contracts, so that they still receive part of their salaries and the team still takes a partial cap hit. Removing Kidd's salary from their books entirely is great for the Knicks, though unfortunately it will only reduce their tax bill, rather than creating any additional cap space or exceptions.
  • The maximum first-year salary the Knicks will be able to offer Smith isn't yet known, but it will be equal to the estimated annual salary for 2013/14. Last year, that figure was $5.276MM, so Smith's maximum starting salary should be in that ballpark.
  • Interestingly, while teams like the Rockets have a handful of players on non-guaranteed contracts for 2013/14, giving the club the flexibility to decide whether or not to bring players back, the Knicks didn't give a non-guaranteed second year to most of their 2012 free agent signings (Copeland, Prigioni, Kenyon Martin, Quentin Richardson, and Earl Barron). Only James White has that sort of option on his deal. It's very possible that those players were simply reluctant to agree to what essentially amounts to a team option, but it would definitely have made things easier for the Knicks if they had a non-guaranteed second year for Copeland and/or Prigioni.

Cap footnotes:

  1. At least one report has already indicated Smith will decline this player option, making him a free agent. When that decision becomes official, his cap hold will be $3,648,388.
  2. White's contract is currently fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before June 30th.
  3. The guaranteed and total salary amounts listed here don't take into account Jason Kidd's $3,090,000 salary, since multiple reports have suggested the retired Kidd has agreed to forgo the remaining money on his contract.
  4. Bibby's and Davis' cap holds remain on the Knicks' books since neither player has signed with a new team since finishing the 2011/12 season in New York, and the Knicks haven't renounced either player's rights.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 5th, 2013 at 2:19pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (12th overall)
  • 1st Round (29th overall)
  • 2nd Round (32nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $65,293,678
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,500,392
  • Cap Holds: $20,800,4862
  • Total: $88,594,556

With the 2013 NBA Finals set to get underway, the Heat are once again representing the East, but this time around, Miami will be playing the team the Thunder eliminated from the playoffs a year ago. In the '13 postseason, Oklahoma City didn't even get a chance to face the Spurs in the Western Finals, having been knocked out a round earlier by the Grizzlies. While it's easy to blame Russell Westbrook's knee injury for OKC's disappointing early exit, one also has to wonder if the Thunder erred in trading James Harden just a few days before the regular season began.

It's easy to jump to conclusions on the Harden trade based on what we saw happen on the court this season – which includes Harden's ascent to stardom in Houston – but there are plenty of other factors to consider. For one, the Thunder appeared willing to extend Harden last offseason, albeit not for the maximum. Had OKC relented and signed Harden to the max, the team's salary commitments for next season would have been approaching $80MM with further additions still required to fill out the roster. For a franchise without the deep pockets of clubs like the Lakers, Knicks, and Nets, diving that far into tax territory in a year when penalties for taxpayers become more punitive simply wasn't palatable.

Had the team re-signed Harden, there were other ways it could have attempted to cut costs — perhaps Serge Ibaka wouldn't have received his four-year extension, or perhaps the team would have amnestied Kendrick Perkins this summer. Considering tax penalties aren't levied until the very end of the season, the Thunder could have even gone into 2013/14 with everyone under contract and tried to make a blockbuster trade or two at the deadline to reduce costs.

In each one of those scenarios though, the team would have either lost a key player, lost trade leverage, or made a financial commitment beyond what ownership was comfortable with. In a no-win situation, the Thunder chose what they viewed as the best available solution, trading Harden early, maintaining some leverage and getting the best package they could.

The jury's still out on whether the Harden package OKC received from Houston will pan out, but this offseason may go a long way toward determing its value. Kevin Martin was servicable in his role as sixth man in 2012/13, but will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. While Martin has expressed a desire to return, having seemingly geniunely enjoyed playing for a contending team for the first time in his career, the Thunder don't have a ton of cap flexibility. Therefore it's possible Martin's stint in OKC will be a one-and-done affair.

Presumably, the Thunder were hoping that Jeremy Lamb would eventually be able to step into that role as a scoring two guard, previously held by Harden and Martin. After being drafted in the lottery a year ago, Lamb hardly saw any NBA playing time during his rookie season, but I don't think that necessarily means he's a future bust. The Thunder simply didn't have enough minutes to go around to get Lamb, Perry Jones III, and all its other young players into the lineup on a regular basis. As we saw with Reggie Jackson, who emerged late in his sophomore season, scoring double-digit points in his final nine playoff games, OKC is very patient with its prospects, bringing them along slowly until they're absolutely ready to contribute.

The Thunder figures to add another young player to their roster in this year's lottery, with the team holding the No. 12 pick. Recent mock drafts have Oklahoma City leaning toward a big man, unless C.J. McCollum is still available when the club's pick rolls around. Either way, bringing another young prospect aboard should make the team's roster very intriguing.

Westbrook, Ibaka, and Kevin Durant certainly aren't getting too old yet (Westbrook and Durant turn 25 this fall, while Ibaka turns 24), so it would be easy enough to spend the next several years trying to find the right mix of veterans to complement them. But as we saw during LeBron James' stint in Cleveland, that approach can be expensive, and isn't always effective. Continuing to stockpile draft picks and young players is a better way of ensuring that the team's success is sustainable.

By the time the team's current Big Three approaches free agency, players like Jackson, Lamb, Jones, and this year's lottery pick should be entering their primes. That would not only create incentive for OKC's stars to stick around, but would give the Thunder a safety net if one or two of those stars leave — unlike the Cavs, the Thunder wouldn't have to enter a full-fledged rebuild in that scenario, since the club continues to bring in young talent rather than going all-in during a two- or three-year window.

Of course, it's possible that the all-in approach is still one Sam Presti and the Thunder office will employ. With those young players in the fold, and a future Mavs' first-round pick still under control, OKC has the assets necessary to trade for a good veteran player. If the team feels it's just one piece away from a title as the 2014 trade deadline approaches, it could use some of those assets to land that piece. But based on the way Presti has built the roster so far, it would be surprising if he backed himself into a corner, compromising the long-term outlook he has taken so far.

Additionally, the team's current salary commitments make adding too much veteran talent (and salary) a little tricky. If the Thunder bring back all their players on guaranteed contracts, along with the No. 12 pick, the club will have to fill out the roster with minimum-salary players to avoid going over the tax line. As such, I have to wonder if the Thunder will seriously consider amnestying Perkins, despite its denials. Clearing his $9MM from the books would ensure that the team could use its full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions (or bring back Martin) without going into tax territory. Perkins' salary would still have to be paid, but using that extra money to replace him with a more productive role player may make more sense than putting it toward tax payments.

While it may seem as if the Thunder need to make a major move this summer in order to return to title contention, the team isn't as far away as this year's postseason outcome made it appear. It's very possible that a healthy Westbrook could have made the difference against the Grizzlies and, subsequently, against the Spurs. With Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka just now entering their mid-20s, it's hard to imagine the club taking a significant step backward, even if Martin doesn't return. A tweak here and there will be necessary, but if at least one of Jackson, Lamb, or Jones is ready to step up and assume a larger role, I expect to see OKC right back near the top of the Western Conference standings in 2013/14.

Additional notes:

  • Only one team (the Heat) has more amnesty-eligible players than the Thunder, who could still clear Durant, Perkins, Nick Collison, or Thabo Sefolosha from their books. Collison and Sefolosha remain reasonably productive and are inexpensive, while Durant obviously isn't going anywhere, which leaves Perkins as the most logical candidate.
  • The Thunder will be facing decisions this offseason on third-year options for Lamb ($2.2MM) and Jones ($1.13MM), and a fourth-year option for Jackson ($2.2MM). I'd be shocked if the team declined any of them.
  • If Martin is out of the Thunder's price range, I'd still expect the team to be able to find a veteran scoring two guard at a reasonable rate. We saw most of that those guys sign for the MLE or less last summer, and there are plenty available this summer.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Thabeet's, Orton's, and Liggins' contract would become fully guaranteed for the season if they're not waived on or before January 7th, 2014.
  2. Martin's cap hold will be worth the maximum salary for a player with his experience (7-9 years). That amount is not yet known — the number listed was 2012/13's max salary, so it figures to be a little higher than that.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors

June 3rd, 2013 at 4:04pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $44,974,902
  • Options: $28,046,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,659,686
  • Cap Holds: $8,100,000
  • Total: $83,780,588

Of all the pleasant surprises in the NBA's 2012/13 season, the emergence of the Warriors may have been the most entertaining. While some pundits predicted Golden State would earn a low-seeded playoff spot in the West, few – if any – had the team advancing to the second round and giving the Finals-bound Spurs a run for their money before eventually being eliminated.

As this year's results show, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the Warriors. Three-point king Stephen Curry has already been locked up to a four-year extension for significantly less money than the Warriors would have paid had they waited until this summer to negotiate a new deal. Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes will both earn less than $3MM apiece in 2013/14 and remain under contract through 2015 and 2016, respectively. Draymond Green is one of the league's best players on a six-digit salary, in line for a salary worth just $876K next season.

Of course, with just a fraction of team salary committed to many of Golden State's young core pieces, the club isn't exactly maximizing the rest of its money. If they're healthy to begin next season, Andrew Bogut and David Lee figure to be in the Warriors' starting frontcourt, and will make nearly $28MM between them. Both players are solid, albeit much more productive on one end of the court than the other (Bogut on defense and Lee on offense). But Bogut missed significant time in the regular season with injuries, while Lee missed a good chunk of the postseason, and the team didn't necessarily suffer in their absence.

Bogut and Lee may be on big contracts, but you could make the case that neither player is necessarily overpaid. The same can't be said of Richard Jefferson or Andris Biedrins, who will make more than $20MM between them in 2013/14, a year after they scored a total of 200 points in 109 combined games — good for an average of 1.8 PPG. Both players are finally in the last year of their respective contracts, but their presence could seriously hinder the team's ability to make other roster moves.

Consider that Biedrins would have been amnesty-eligible had the Warriors not amnestied Charlie Bell's $4MM salary in an effort to land DeAndre Jordan two years ago. Additionally, Jefferson came over in exchange for Stephen Jackson in the deal that also netted Golden State the first-round pick that turned into Festus Ezeli. Ezeli is a nice young prospect, but I wonder if the Warriors would still do that move, knowing that they could have had an extra $11MM in cap flexibility when Jackson's deal expired this summer (a year before Jefferson's).

Without Jefferson and Biedrins on their books, the Warriors likely would have had the room to comfortably bring back unrestricted free agent point guard Jarrett Jack and power forward Carl Landry, who will likely decline his $4MM player option. Instead, both players' futures are up in the air. Assuming Brandon Rush exercises his own $4MM player option, the Warriors will have $69MM+ committed to 10 players. With the tax line projected to be at $71.6MM, it will be virtually impossible for Golden State to avoid the tax unless the team can shed salary in a trade or fills out its roster with minimum-salary players.

If the team is comfortable going into the tax, re-signing Jack and/or Landry should be doable. Both players, Jack in particular, may be in line for modest raises based on their performance this past year, but I don't think their prices will be exorbitant. If Golden State is willing to push payroll up to the $80MM range and pay the necessary taxes this year, knowing significant money will be coming off the books in the summer of 2014, the team could bring back all of its important pieces for next year. Taking into account further growth from guys like Curry, Barnes, Thompson, and Green, a return to health for the sharpshooting Rush, and the possibility of using the taxpayer MLE to bring in one more veteran, and the Warriors could be a force to be reckoned with again in the West, even with $20MM+ in dead money committed to a pair of players on the end of the bench.

If the Warriors are averse to becoming a taxpayer even for one season, there are plenty of alternative options at their disposal. They'd almost certainly be able to find a taker for Jefferson's or Biedrins' contract if they attached a player like Thompson or Barnes to the offer. But given how well the team's young core played together down the stretch in 2012/13, you'd hope such a scenario could be avoided, and that ownership is willing to pay the price this year for the team's past cap mismanagement, knowing that it doesn't have to be a long-term problem.

Additional notes:

  • When considering whether the Warriors will pay the tax, it's worth noting that the team made a pair of deadline deals to get under the threshold this past season. I don't think that necessarily reflects a permanent philosophy though — it allowed the team to receive the benefits that non-taxpayers do, and if there's a risk of being exposed to the repeater tax down the line, not being a taxpayer this past season could be huge.
  • If it seems like I didn't spend much time talking about potential outside targets for the Warriors, that's because I don't expect that to be a major part of the team's plan. Golden State has no picks in the draft and has 14 players either under contract or with some form of option for next season, so significant turnover is extremely unlikely.

Cap footnotes:

  1. While the team hasn't made any official announcements, it has already been reported that both Jefferson and Biedrins will opt in for 2013/14, so we can essentially consider their salaries guaranteed. Doing so would increase the team's guaranteed salaries to $65,020,902.
  2. Jones' and Machado's contracts are currently fully non-guaranteed. If they aren't waived on or before August 1st, their salaries will become fully guaranteed.
  3. Bazemore's contract is currently guaranteed for $25K, but has no full-guarantee date, so the team won't have to make a decision on him until next January.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Raptors

May 30th, 2013 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kyle Lowry ($6,210,000; guaranteed for $1,000,000)1

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $66,173,758
  • Options: $1,567,500
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $5,210,000
  • Cap Holds: $3,806,336
  • Total: $76,757,594

While the on-court results for an NBA lottery team can be discouraging, there's usually some reason for hope when the offseason rolls around. Whether that means a top-five draft pick or an abundance of cap space, fans of 50- or 60-loss teams can often talk themselves into believing that with a couple smart draft picks, trades, or signings, things will turn around — and sometimes that's even true.

This isn't to say there's no hope in sight for the Raptors. But of this year's 14 lottery teams, only one has no cap space and no top-14 pick: Toronto. In fact, not only are they capped out and without a lottery pick, but the Raptors are dangerously close to tax territory and don't have a pick anywhere in the 2013 draft.

Although the Raptors don't appear well-positioned to make many big moves this offseason, the team essentially made its summer-of-2013 moves ahead of time, by cashing in their trade chips within the last 11 months. This year's lottery pick is gone because the club traded it to Houston to acquire point guard Kyle Lowry last season. And the lack of cap room can be attributed at least in part to a blockbuster in-season trade that sent Ed Davis and Jose Calderon's big expiring contract to the Grizzlies and Pistons, respectively, in exchange for Rudy Gay.

Gay and Lowry are good players, and Gay's exorbitant salary ($17.89MM) is at least balanced out a little by the reasonable rate the team will be paying Lowry ($6.21MM). That duo won't be enough to take Toronto to the playoffs on its own, however, and many of the other pieces on the roster represent questionable investments on the part of former GM Bryan Colangelo; Andrea Bargnani at $10.75MM, Landry Fields at $6.25MM, and Linas Kleiza at $4.6MM come immediately to mind.

Still, there are talented players here — Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross showed real flashes of promise during their respective rookie seasons, Amir Johnson is coming off perhaps the best year of his career, and DeMar DeRozan certainly has the ability to score, even though the jury's still out on whether he'll live up to his four-year, $38MM contract extension that begins in 2013/14.

Barring tremendous steps forward by Valanciunas and Ross or a big bounce-back season from Bargnani, there isn't quite enough here for the Raptors to become a legit contender in 2013/14. So for Colangelo's successor in the front office, whether that's Masai Ujiri or someone else, this summer's task will involve finding a way to add that extra piece or two to the roster in the hopes of taking the team to the next level.

Assuming the Raptors guarantee Lowry's salary, which seems like a lock, the team will have $71MM+ on its books for 11 players. The amnesty clause figures to be of use this offseason, and it was widely anticipated that Kleiza would be the victim, since Bargnani may still have some trade value. But with Colangelo no longer in charge of the team's basketball decisions, I'll be curious to see whether Bargnani receives any amnesty consideration.

Based on his performance in 2012/13, it's hard to imagine any team agreeing to take on Bargnani's salary without either sending the Raptors an equally bad contract or acquiring a more valuable asset from the Raps as part of the deal. As such, using the amnesty provision to clear Bargnani's two years and $22.25MM overall salary from the books could be more beneficial than amnestying Kleiza and his $4.6MM salary.

It's true that amnestying Bargnani wouldn't get the Raptors below the cap, which would somewhat minimize the benefits of the move. But let's say Toronto amnesties Kleiza instead. At that point, the team would be spending about $66.8MM on 10 players. If the Raps hope to sign someone to the full mid-level, which starts at $5.15MM, that would take them back to (or near) the tax line. It would also hard-cap them for the season, a situation we saw with the Bulls this past year, which would make it a tight squeeze to even fill out the roster.

In a way, the decision on Bargnani will create a ripple effect on the rest of the Raptors' summer moves. If Toronto is able to trade him and get a decent power forward in return (say, Carlos Boozer or Kris Humphries), the team could pursue a backup point guard with its mid-level exception. If Bargnani doesn't return anything of value, or is amnestied, that MLE may have to be used on a big man to replace him.

A Raptors team that features Lowry, Gay, DeRozan, Valanciunas, Johnson, and Ross playing at their best is dangerous, and should at least contend for the postseason in the East no matter who else is added to the roster. However, Valanciunas and Ross are still developing, and production from the Raptors' veterans was often inconsistent in 2012/13. A few more reinforcements would help significantly, but with no draft picks and little cap flexibility, the Raptors team we see now likely won't be much different than the one we see on opening night in October. Perhaps a new GM can make some small tweaks and solve the lingering Bargnani problem, but the core is essentially in place in Toronto. Now it's up to them to perform.

Additional notes:

  • When I spoke to Alan Anderson last month, he expressed a sincere desire to return to the Raptors, the team that gave him a second chance in the NBA in 2011/12. After averaging double-digit points this past year though, Anderson figures to receive interest from a handful of other teams. If another club offers him more than the minimum, the Raps may have a hard time matching that offer.
  • As for Toronto's other free agents, I'd be surprised if either Mickael Pietrus or Sebastian Telfair returned. The team will face an interesting decision on John Lucas III — I assume the deadline for his $1.57MM team option is June 30th, so the Raps won't have a chance to explore the free agent market for alternatives before making that decision. Declining the option would leave them with only Lowry at the point, but I could still see them doing that and then trying to find a backup or two in July.
  • Aaron Gray and Kleiza initially had player options for 2013/14 — they've already exercised them.
  • The Ted Stepien rule prevents the Raptors from trading their 2014 first-rounder at this point, since they don't have a 2013 first-rounder. However, they could deal their '14 pick after next month's draft. I don't expect them to do so, after sitting out this year's draft, but it'd be an option to consider if they dangle Bargnani's contract in trade talks.

Cap footnotes:

  1. If Lowry is not released on or before July 15th, his 2013/14 salary will become fully guaranteed.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia 76ers

May 27th, 2013 at 3:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (11th overall)
  • 2nd Round (35th overall)
  • 2nd Round (42nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $41,596,841
  • Options: $2,945,901
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $788,872
  • Cap Holds: $35,299,429
  • Total: $80,631,043

For teams that have the good fortune of landing a superstar, many years can be spent trying to add complementary pieces around that star, giving him the help he needs to contend for a title. For the 76ers, that process played out in reverse. Prior to last August's trade that sent Andre Iguodala to the Nuggets and Andrew Bynum to Philadelphia, the Sixers' roster was an odd collection of solid but unspectacular pieces with too much positional overlap and not a whole lot of potential to contend. But once Bynum was penciled in to the starting lineup in place of Iguodala, the roster construction made more sense — the complementary pieces were already in place, and now the Sixers had landed the star player needed to lead the team to contention.

Of course, as we all know, that's not quite how Bynum's first, and perhaps only, year in Philadelphia played out. The young center didn't see a single minute of action for the Sixers during the 2012/13 season, with knee injuries potentially costing him tens of millions of dollars in his walk year. Those knee issues also created a giant question mark when it comes to the Sixers' plan for the future. When the club first acquired Bynum, there was talk of locking him up to a long-term contract and letting him be the centerpiece in Philadelphia for years to come. There hasn't been much of that talk lately.

That's not to say it's certain Bynum will be playing elsewhere next season. With his Bird Rights in their pocket, along with first-hand knowledge of his medical records, the Sixers will be in the driver's seat when Bynum hits free agency in July. But the team simply can't offer him a big-money, long-term contract with any confidence, knowing that his knees could be a recurring issue. Even if the Sixers are able to re-sign Bynum at a fair rate on a short-term deal, the club will have to pursue a Plan B, since assuming the former Laker will play 60 or 70 games is unreasonably optimistic for now.

The good news for the Sixers is that in Bynum's absence a couple of those players who had previously been viewed as complementary pieces made great strides in '12/13, particularly in the case of Jrue Holiday, who was a contender for Most Improved Player. With Holiday under contract for four more seasons and the underrated Thaddeus Young under team control for at least two more years (the third is a player option), the Sixers have two nice core pieces in place.

Besides Holiday and Young though, it's unclear whether any of the players currently on the roster is part of the team's long-term plan. Jason Richardson may be around for a couple more seasons simply because his contract will be hard to move, and Kwame Brown is a near-lock to pick up his player option and return for one more year. The Sixers gave up a future first-round pick to nab Arnett Moultrie in last year's draft, so they'll likely be patient with his development. Lavoy Allen and particularly Spencer Hawes provided good production in the frontcourt, but I'm not sure either big man will be playing major minutes for the next contending team in Philadelphia.

The Sixer with the most uncertain future may be Evan Turner, the former second overall pick who was expected to have a breakout year with Iguodala in Denver. Turner did set career-highs in many categories, but that was a result of increased playing time (35.3 MPG, from 26.4) rather than an increase in efficiency. In fact, Turner's FG% (.419) was a career-worst mark, while his 12.1 PER was a step down from 2011/12's figure (12.6).

Heading into the 2013 offseason, Turner will be eligible for a contract extension, meaning it would be the Sixers' time to strike if they still feel like Turner is capable of delivering on his pre-draft potential. Philadelphia appears to have gotten a bargain in Holiday by locking him up prior to his breakout season. Perhaps if management feels Turner is on the same path, the club will make an attempt to extend him this fall, keeping him from hitting the open market. If the Sixers aren't so confident in his development, it'll be a contract year for Turner, who would be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2014.

The question of Bynum's future in Philadelphia looms over all the team's offseason decisions. If the Sixers were to bring him back, there wouldn't be much room to supplement the roster with another impact free agent, though perhaps they could add a mid-level player and a couple smaller pieces. If the club decides to let him walk, there'd be a moderate amount of cap space available, but it wouldn't necessarily need to be used immediately.

New head of basketball operations Sam Hinkie comes from a Rockets organization that has been very adept at accumulating assets, managing the cap, and spending its money on the right players. Based on Hinkie's history in Houston, it wouldn't surprise me if he decides to use 2013/14 as a transitional year, perhaps signing free agents to one-year deals while attempting to add draft picks or young talent using the team's non-core trade assets. With Hawes, Turner, Allen, and Brown projected to come off the books in the summer of 2014, rolling their cap space over to an offseason that should feature more talent than '13 in both free agency and the draft could be the Sixers' best move.

Additional notes:

  • Bynum isn't the only unrestricted free agent whose future in Philadelphia is up in the air. Nick Young appears likely to be headed elsewhere after an uninspiring season with the Sixers, and I wouldn't be surprised if Dorell Wright departed as well.
  • While Tony DiLeo was technically the team's general manager last season, head coach Doug Collins reportedly had a significant voice in basketball decisions. With Hinkie in place now, I wouldn't expect the Sixers' new coach to play as large a role in the team's roster decisions, particularly since the club doesn't seem in any rush to make a hire.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Holiday's contract is currently fully non-guaranteed. It becomes guaranteed for $50K if he's not waived by August 15th.
  2. $1,084,293 is the amount of Jenkins' qualifying offer. If the Sixers decide not to tender him a qualifying offer, his cap hold will be $884,293.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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