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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls

May 25th, 2013 at 3:52pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (20th overall)
  • 2nd Round (49th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $73,044,288
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,884,293
  • Cap Holds: $8,982,965
  • Total: $86,911,546 

Considering Derrick Rose never played a single game, the season went about as well as could be expected for the Bulls. Even if Rose had made it back from his injury, Chicago may not have done better than winning a playoff series and putting a scare in the Heat, considering the turnover they suffered on the bench coming into 2012/13. Coach Tom Thibodeau deserves credit for developing an overachieving supporting cast, many of whom wound up starting and playing prominent roles in the playoffs while Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich joined Rose on the bench with injuries.

Presumably, Rose will return healthy for the start of next season, and the central question for John Paxson, the team's executive VP of basketball operations, and GM Gar Forman is whether that's enough to give Chicago a shot at the championship. The Bulls entered the playoffs as the top seed the last two seasons in which Rose played, but they've won a total of just two playoff series with Rose in uniform. Part of the reason that's the case is the team's inability to get past the Heat, and that obstacle could be gone after next season, when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh can all opt out of their contracts. They could also all choose to stay with the Heat, or one or more of them could go elsewhere and form another superteam that erects another barrier for the Bulls.

LeBron and company passed on Chicago in the summer of 2010, and there's no pressing reason to suspect they wouldn't do so again, making the specter of a superteam in Chicago far-fetched. In 2010, the Bulls instead went with Carlos Boozer, who has drawn criticism ever since. Boozer has never been the most consistent of producers, and some of his numbers suggest this season was another dip on his personal rollercoaster. He recorded career lows in shooting percentage (.477) and PER (17.1), even as his scoring and rebounding went up from last year. His numbers held steady in the playoffs, unlike his first two postseason runs with the Bulls, and that may be enough to spare him from becoming an amnesty victim.

The Bulls owe him $32.1MM over the next two seasons, making him the highest paid player on their roster aside from Rose. His presence as a playoff force will be critical to the team's ability to get past Miami or other elite teams, and if Paxson, Forman and company feel they can't get that sort of performance from him, there's little reason to keep him around. His amnesty represents the easiest way for the Bulls to avoid paying the tax next season after having done so for the first time in franchise history this year. 

Still, if the Bulls are confident Boozer can produce in the postseason, they're probably better off keeping him, since amnestying him wouldn't create enough cap room to replace him with a player who's likely to do any better. The Bulls reportedly reached out to the Raptors and others about trading Boozer before the deadline this past season, but found no takers. A trade could be the most viable option the team has of either upgrading its roster, avoiding the tax, or both.

Writers have batted around a trade idea that would send Kevin Love to the Bulls in exchange for Boozer, Jimmy Butler, former first-round pick Nikola Mirotic and a future first-round pick that the Bobcats owe Chicago. That one seems a non-starter now that new Wolves exec Flip Saunders has worked to strengthen the team's relationship with Love, and it doesn't sound like a proposal the teams ever considered anyway.

The Bulls played well in the postseason without Deng, leading to speculation that he could be the centerpiece of a deal this summer. The Cavaliers and Pistons have apparently expressed interest in Deng already, but it's unclear what it would take to get a deal done. The Bulls would probably want to reduce their payroll, and both Cleveland and Detroit will have the cap room to facilitate an uneven exchange of salaries. I'd be surprised if Chicago gave up Butler, who emerged as a force on the perimeter this season and has two more years left on his rookie deal. Mirotic is another young, cheap asset, even if it's unclear when he'll make the move to the NBA.

Butler's emergence helps make parting ways with Richard Hamilton an easy choice. The Bulls are expected to waive the 35-year-old former All-Star by July 10th, allowing them to save $4MM on his cap hit for next season. Injuries held Hamilton back from becoming the reliable starting two-guard the team signed him to be, but even when he was healthy and the Bulls were in need of help in the postseason, Thibodeau rarely called on him.

With Rose and Hamilton out of the picture and Butler pressed into duty at small forward in place of Deng, the Bulls rode with Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli as their starting backcourt in the playoffs. Both exceeded expectations, particularly Robinson, who was a minimum-salary signee. The Bulls have Non-Bird rights on both, allowing them to go no more than 120% over their salaries from this past season to re-sign them, unless Chicago dips into its mid-level exception. As a team in line to pay the tax, the Bulls will only have the $3.183 taxpayer's mid-level, which might be enough for one of them, but not both. Chicago has Non-Bird rights on backup center Nazr Mohammed, too, but he's unlikely to return unless he agrees to another minimum-salary deal.

The Bulls would have to make a drastic move to significantly improve their roster this summer. Forman identified a return to health as the team's primary offseason goal, and the return of Rose should vault the Bulls into some level of title contention. If they keep the core of the team together, they won't enter next season as favorites, but they'll probably have a chance. Unless they get a trade offer they can't bear to turn down, the Bulls seem like they'll give this group one more try and gauge a changing NBA landscape next summer.

Cap footnotes

  1. Hamilton's contract becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 10th.
  2. Thomas' contract becomes guaranteed for $250,000 if he's not waived on or before July 24th, and for $500,000 if he's not waived on or before December 9th.
  3. The cap hold for Mirotic, the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, is equal to 100% of the rookie scale amount for the 23rd pick in this year's draft. 
  4. No, Scalabrine isn't on the Bulls' payroll, and he wasn't last season, either. He's still listed as a cap hold because Chicago has yet to renounce his rights after he played on a minimum-salary deal in 2011/12. The Bulls were over the cap last summer, and it's likely they'll remain so this offseason. Unless they intend to dip below the cap line and use their space, there will be no reason to renounce their rights to Scalabrine, or any of their free agents who go unsigned this summer.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

May 24th, 2013 at 9:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (17th overall)
  • 1st Round (18th overall)
  • 2nd Round (47th overall)
  • 2nd Round (50th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $18,583,800
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,913,615
  • Cap Holds: $73,084,636
  • Total: $95,582,051 

If there are any questions about Danny Ferry's abilities as a general manager, what he does this summer will probably answer them. The Hawks enter the offseason with as much of a clean slate as any team can have, with the exception of an expansion franchise. Twelve players on the team's 15-man roster are free agents, and even coach Larry Drew's contract is up. The Hawks have left the door open for Drew to return, but it looks like both sides have moved on, meaning Ferry will likely have to pick a new coach to lead a team that promises to look much different when the 2013/14 season tips off.  

Atlanta will have enough room for a pair of max-contract free agents, even if they're Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, whose maximum salaries are the largest of any free agents on the market this summer. Not surprisingly, it appears Ferry's first order of business, after resolving the coaching situation, will be to see if both D12 and CP3 are interested in forming a super-team with the Hawks.

It would make the summer relatively easy for Ferry if he could land the two most sought-after free agents, but Paul, in particular, is a long shot. The Hawks will have plenty of competition for Howard even if the big man is interested in returning to his hometown, so it seems there's a strong chance that neither will wind up in Atlanta. That puts the onus on Ferry's abilities as a talent evaluator. Nobody else on the market is indisputably deserving of a max deal, and that includes Atlanta's in-house candidate, Josh Smith.

The 6'9" forward believes he's deserving of the max, and while Ferry and company like him enough to have offered him an extension prior to the season, it doesn't seem like they share Smith's view of his abilities. Other unrestricted free agent options include Andrew Bynum, Al Jefferson, David West and Paul Millsap. Andre Iguodala and Monta Ellis could be in play if they decline their options. Top restricted talent includes Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Nikola Pekovic, Tiago Splitter and the Hawks' own Jeff Teague.

It sounds like the Hawks are high on Teague, and, along with Smith, he'll be relatively easy to evaluate since he's been around the team for so long. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks sign Teague as soon as they have a definitive answer from Paul. After CP3 and Jennings, Teague is probably the best point guard on the market. He's probably not a maximum-salary player, so unless another team decides to overpay, Atlanta shouldn't have much trouble bringing him back into the fold.

The most talented player available, other than Howard and Paul, is probably Bynum. Of course, he comes with a significant caveat surrounding the health of his knees. If Ferry and the team's medical staff are confident that Bynum can regain and maintain full health, they might offer him the max, but that's a big "if." Really, unless one of the other free agents wows the Hawks, the team is likely better off pursuing smaller deals. That way, Ferry could fill out more of his empty roster space with players who command more than the minimum salary. Depending on how cheaply Ferry finds his talent, he may decide to leave enough cap space open for a run at a superstar from the better-stocked 2014 free agent class. Ferry could also decide to go with a bunch of one-year deals, a la the Mavericks this past season.

Whatever Ferry does, he'll be doing it with Al Horford in mind. Horford is owed $36MM through 2016. The contract is reasonable, if not a bargain, so Ferry could probably find a taker if he wants to trade Horford, but there's no indication he'll go that route. The former No. 3 overall pick is no superstar, but he is the building block around which this team will be constructed. His skills present Ferry with an intriguing choice — Horford can play power forward in a traditional lineup that bucks the small-ball trend, or center if Ferry wants to embrace the philosophy of an increasing number of teams.  To a lesser extent, Lou Williams will factor into Ferry's thinking as well, since he's under contract through 2015.

John Jenkins, the 23rd overall pick from 2012, is set to return as well after spending the better part of his rookie season in the rotation. The Hawks have four draft picks this year, but I wouldn't expect Atlanta to keep all of them and bring four rookies aboard, unless Ferry decides to roll the team's cap space over to 2014.

The summer ahead is a defining one for the franchise, but it may only be the first step. Unless Howard or Paul arrives in Atlanta, there's no one who automatically propels the Hawks into the title picture for next season. After years as a mediocre playoff team that never got past the second round, the Hawks probably won't be content to pin their hopes on a long-term plan that doesn't include a superstar. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks enter next summer with plenty of cap space as well.

Cap footnotes

  1. When the Hawks waived Tyler in March, his contract included a $100K guarantee for 2013/14.
  2. Scott's contract becomes guaranteed for $100K next season if he's not waived on or before August 15th.
  3. The qualifying offer for Teague, the 19th pick in the 2009 draft, is $3,469,568, which is less than 250% of his salary in 2012/13. The cap hold for a former first-rounder who made less than the league average salary in the fourth season of his rookie-scale contract is always the greater of those two amounts in the summer after his rookie deal expires.
  4. The qualifying offer for Johnson, originally signed as an undrafted free agent, is $1,202,744, which is less than 130% of his salary in 2012/13. The cap hold for any Early Bird free agent who's not coming off a rookie-scale contract — deals that are reserved only for first-round draft picks — is always the greater of those two amounts.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Bucks

May 22nd, 2013 at 10:50am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (15th overall)
  • 2nd Round (43rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $29,555,523
  • Options: $12,500,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Cap Holds: $34,078,254
  • Total: $76,133,777

While the Bucks made the postseason for just the second time in the last seven years, earning the franchise's first playoff berth since 2009/10, it's hard to view the '12/13 season as a real success. After a solid first half, the Bucks stumbled down the stretch, ultimately finishing with a 38-44 record. In the Western Conference, that sort of record would mean Milwaukee would be focusing on last night's draft lottery results. In the East, it meant a No. 8 seed and a first-round sweep at the hands of the Heat.

So here's where the Bucks stand heading into the summer: Their playoff appearance was so brief you could be forgiven for thinking it didn't even last four games. They don't have a lottery pick. They're searching for their third head coach of the calendar year. And four of their top five scorers are eligible for free agency.

Some of those issues are less significant than others. Many observers feel this year's draft class is short on elite talent but well-stocked with potential rotation players, so 15th overall isn't a bad spot for the Bucks. Additionally, the opportunity to bring in a new coach to replace one who had seemingly grown tired of the job (Scott Skiles) and one who was no more than a midseason quick fix (Jim Boylan) should allow the Bucks to identify a candidate more suited for the position.

The team's most pressing concern should be the free agent period. Monta Ellis has a player option worth $11MM that he's unlikely to exercise — even if he's unlikely to find an annual salary that high on the open market, the opportunity to secure a longer-term deal with a team of his choosing will probably be too appealing to pass up. Meanwhile, after years of conflicting public comments on whether or not he's happy in Milwaukee, Brandon Jennings will hit free agency for the first time. Coming off his rookie-scale contract, Jennings will be a restricted free agent, meaning the Bucks will have the opportunity to match any offer he receives. If Jennings really wants to leave Milwaukee though, he could certainly make life difficult for the team by either signing a lucrative offer sheet with another suitor or accepting the Bucks' one-year qualifying offer, which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Besides Ellis and Jennings, a pair of Milwaukee sharpshooters are also headed for unrestricted free agency. J.J. Redick figures to be a priority for the Bucks, considering the club gave up an apparent gem in Tobias Harris to acquire Redick from the Magic. Like the Sixers with Andrew Bynum, the Bucks don't want to make an unsuccessful trade worse by overpaying the player in free agency, but trading Harris and others for a two-month rental of Redick doesn't make much sense. In addition to Redick, Mike Dunleavy, an unspectacular but very solid wing player, will hit the open market.

The Bucks' impending free agents present the team with an unenviable dilemma: Re-signing two or three of those free agents and making small upgrades elsewhere won't make Milwaukee a title contender. If anything, it would set the Bucks up for more years like 2012/13, where they may be good enough to make the postseason, but aren't quite good enough to make any noise once they get there.

On the other hand, letting their free agents walk presents a new set of problems. Milwaukee isn't exactly one of the league's most attractive free agent destinations, so even armed with a huge chunk of cap space, it's hard to imagine the Bucks luring an elite free agent or two to Milwaukee without massively overpaying. And without a lottery pick or a trade asset like Harris, it's equally hard to see how the Bucks could land an elite talent in the draft or on the trade market.

My best guess for the Bucks this summer is that they do what they can to retain Jennings. Even if they have to overpay, the Bucks are in the driver's seat when it comes to keeping Jennings under team control going forward, which isn't necessarily true of their other free agents. I'd also expect the club to take its best shot at bringing back Redick — the fact that the Bucks targeted and acquired him in the first place suggests to me that they like him, and we heard earlier in the year that they'd make a "strong bid" to re-sign him.

If the Bucks are able to re-sign Jennings and Redick for something in the neighborhood of $20-22MM annually, they'd still have a little room to pursue other rotation pieces in free agency. That's especially true if the club also decides to amnesty Drew Gooden, who has two years and more than $13MM remaining on his contract. I'd expect the Bucks to use their amnesty provision on Gooden only if they have a specific target lined up to use that cap room on instead. Either way, filling out the backcourt and adding another big man to a frontcourt that includes Larry Sanders, John Henson, and Ersan Ilyasova will be priorities for Milwaukee.

For now, Milwaukee is lacking the sort of elite talent necessary to take the team to the next level. As long as the Bucks continue to be relatively productive on the court, it will be difficult to land that kind of talent in the draft, and the team will remain at an inherent disadvantage when it comes to recruiting free agents.

Still, the Bucks do have a handful of valuable assets on their roster, even if they lose a couple of their free agent guards this summer. So even if GM John Hammond isn't able to add a star, continuing to add solid young talent to the roster would be a step in the direction. We've seen a team like the Nuggets have plenty of regular-season success without a star, and other teams like the Rockets have been able to eventually accumulate enough valuable assets to turn them into a star via trade. Perhaps the Bucks can follow the blueprints established by those sorts of clubs, and avoid getting stuck in the no-man's land that belongs to non-lottery, non-contending teams.

Additional notes:

  • Besides Gooden, only Sanders is eligible to be amnestied, so if the Bucks don't cut Gooden this summer or next, their amnesty provision will go unused.
  • Also worth monitoring this offseason: Sanders becomes eligible for a rookie-scale extension as of July. After his breakout year in '12/13, Sanders appears to be in line for a new contract that exceeds the four-year, $33MM deal signed by Taj Gibson last fall.  It will be interesting to see if he elects to wait until free agency to negotiate a long-term deal, or if the Bucks lock him up before October 31st.
  • He won't receive the same amount of attention as Sanders, but Ekpe Udoh is also eligible for an extension this offseason. I'd expect the Bucks to wait on Udoh and see how he performs in his fourth year before negotiating a new deal with him.

Cap footnotes:

  1. If the Bucks exercise their team option on Ayon by the June 30th deadline, his contract is still non-guaranteed. If he remains on the roster beyond July 25th, his full salary becomes guaranteed.
  2. Because he met the starter criteria, Jennings will now be eligible for a qualifying offer of $4,531,459 rather than $4,330,469.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Celtics

May 18th, 2013 at 5:02pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (16th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $62,604,091
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $13,415,607
  • Cap Holds: $23,789,307
  • Total: $99,809,005

The Celtics apparently have resolution to one of their offseason question marks, with president of basketball operations Danny Ainge confirming that Doc Rivers will be back as the team's coach. There wasn't much doubt about that, but Rivers wavered at the end of the season, and his name surfaced in rumors about the Nets. Much larger decisions remain, with uncertainty surrounding the futures of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Boston has an unusual opportunity with Pierce's contract. The team can save more than two-thirds of his $15MM+ salary if it waives him by June 30th, the day before the NBA's calendar flips over to 2013/14. That would require cutting ties with the player who's scored more points than anybody in Celtic green except John Havlicek. Pierce, at 35, might not be all he once was, as demonstrated by a decline in free throw attempts to his lowest per-game rate since his rookie season, but most of his numbers this season were consistent with recent years. Recognizing a need to help out a team that was weak on the boards, Pierce averaged 6.3 rebounds, his most since 2005/06. 

Father time appears to be closer to catching up with Garnett, who turns 37 tomorrow. He played just 29.7 minutes per game this season, the fewest since he was a rookie. He still gets it done on the defensive end, where the Celtics give up just 96.2 points per 100 possessions when he's in the game. His rebounding is tailing off, though, as he grabbed 9.4 boards per 36 minutes, his lowest rate since 1997/98. 

Alas, it would be much easier for the C's to part ways with Pierce than with Garnett, who has a guaranteed contract with one of the league's few no-trade clauses. They could try to goad KG into accepting a trade by unloading Pierce and demonstrating that they're in full-scale rebuilding mode, but I don't think Ainge is ready to move on from the "Big Three" era quite yet, if only because there aren't many other intriguing options.

The Celtics could try to trade Pierce, whose contract expires after next season, but that doesn't seem appealing. The cap space the C's can create with Pierce off their books in 2014, when several marquee free agents could be available, is probably more valuable than anything they might get in return for him. Ainge could also dangle Rajon Rondo's team-friendly deal, likely the team's best asset. That could net them draft picks and promising young players, and clear more cap space for a run at one of those summer of 2014 free agents. Boston, despite its rich basketball tradition, has never been a preferred destination for top free agents, however, and that would require Ainge to hit home runs with the youthful assets he would acquire for Rondo, who appears destined to stay put.

The four-year, $36.24MM contract that Jeff Green signed with the Celtics last summer looks like much less of an albatross for the team than it did in the middle of the season. Green's scoring average in games after the All-Star break (17.3) was a whopping seven points higher than it was through the first half of the season. Still, he'll need to show consistency if other teams are to find him an attractive trade asset. 

Brandon Bass regressed after a career year in 2011/12, while Jason Terry and Courtney Lee, the two shooting guards the team ostensibly brought in to replace Ray Allen, went through significant declines as well. None of them look like strong trade candidates. Avery Bradley returned from his shoulder injury to play top-notch perimeter defense again, but he regressed offensively and proved incapable of taking over as the team's primary ball-handler in Rondo's absence. That likely limits his trade value, though Ainge probably isn't giving up a starting guard on a rookie contract.

The Celtics are in line to pay the luxury tax unless they waive Pierce, and they'd still be well over the cap even if they save that $10MM+ on him. The team's best bet to upgrade is likely through the mid-level exception. It will be hard to find quality big men on the cheap, particularly if the team is limited to the $3.183MM taxpayer's mid-level instead of the standard $5.15MM exception. Still, someone who can shore up the team's rebounding will no doubt be a priority for Ainge and his staff, which lost assistant GM Ryan McDonough to the Suns. The Heat were the only team to grab fewer rebounds than the Celtics this season, and Boston doesn't have the kind of all-world talent that Miami can call upon to overcome that kind of flaw.

Barring massive improvement by rookies Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo, or midseason acquisitions Shavlik Randolph and D.J. White, the Celtics could also use an inside player to take pressure off Garnett, whose minutes may decline again next season. Ainge acknowledges that the Celtics probably need to add more than a single piece if they're to become a championship contender again. Nonetheless, the clearest path back to the top appears to involve spending the summer on minor changes, rather than an overhaul.

Cap footnotes:

  1. Williams' contract becomes guaranteed for $200K if he's not waived by June 30th, and the guarantee rises to $300K if he's not waived by September 1st. The guarantee becomes full if he makes the team out of camp.
  2. The contracts of Randolph and White become fully guaranteed if they're not waived by August 1st.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Denver Nuggets

May 12th, 2013 at 12:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (27th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $51,887,846
  • Options: $16,154,750
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $638,872
  • Cap Holds: $20,447,209
  • Total: $89,128,677

Most teams with 57 regular season wins, the Coach of the Year and the Executive of the Year would still find themselves alive in the postseason this time of year, but that's not the case for these Nuggets. Denver finds itself out of the first round for the ninth time in 10 years, with critics once more heralding the ineffectiveness of the team's egalitarian approach. There is no superstar on this roster, and Andre Iguodala, the team's closest facsimile, is likely to opt out of his contract and hit free agency this summer.

Team president Josh Kroenke and GM Masai Ujiri have both expressed a desire for Iguodala to return, and re-signing him would appear to be the team's top priority if the Olympic gold medalist opts out. A new contract for Iggy would likely hamstring the team's financial flexibility from a cap standpoint, though the primary option for upgrading this roster would likely be a trade. The Carmelo Anthony deal, the  Nene/JaVale McGee swap and the Nuggets' participation in the Dwight Howard/Andrew Bynum blockbuster that netted them Iguodala last summer represent three major trades in an 18-month span. Restraint isn't what put the Executive of the Year trophy in Ujiri's hands, and I wouldn't expect him to stand pat for long.

Danilo Gallinari's torn ACL could complicate matters. Gallinari is just 24 years old and on an affordable contract that will pay him $32.561MM over the next three seasons. He represents one of the team's best assets if Ujiri wants to make a deal. The same could be said for 25-year-old Ty Lawson, though the Nuggets just signed him to a four-year, $48MM extension that kicks in next season, and they seem to view him as a long-term building block.

A better option might be Wilson Chandler, who is due $20,273,739 through 2016, not too dire a price for someone who can play both forward positions and shot 41.3% from three-point range this season. Kosta Koufos has severely limited shooting range, but he makes just $3MM next season and next, with only $500K guaranteed in the final season of his contract. That, along with his size, rebounding and efficiency, could intrigue other teams. The Nuggets also have Kenneth Faried with two years left on his rookie deal, and while they'd be loath to part with a bargain like him, they might be willing to do so if they could make him part of a package for a superstar.

Chandler, Koufos and Faried might allow for decent return in a trade, but Denver probably isn't getting a marquee player unless they're willing to include Lawson or another team is willing to take on Gallinari as damaged goods. Ujiri could get creative and structure a sign-and-trade with Iguodala or Timofey Mozgov, but doing so would require the players' consent, which makes it tricky.

The Nuggets reportedly plan on extending a qualifying offer to Mozgov, though there's some doubt that they'd do so, since he could just accept it and make nearly $4MM next season as overpriced end-of-the-bench filler. The 7'1" center was a hot trade candidate at the deadline this season, so if the Nuggets float the offer and Mozgov doesn't bite, rival teams in need of size could be goaded into overpaying for Mozgov to scare the Nuggets off from matching. If Ujiri can negotiate a fairly priced multiyear deal for the Russian, he could be thrown into trade discussions again at next year's deadline.

The other notable free agent on the roster is Corey Brewer, who enjoyed a renaissance this season and drew high praise from George Karl. His poor outside shooting was exposed in the playoffs, however, and his 5-for-28 shooting in the final three games of the Warriors series may have cost him plenty of money. That could allow the Nuggets to pick him back up at a cheap price, although the team's subpar performance from behind the three-point line this season suggests they should go after someone with better touch. Denver was 20th in made three-pointers this season, and it's been known since March that the team will target sharpshooter Kyle Korver in free agency, likely with its mid-level exception. Korver will likely have plenty of suitors, but the Nuggets could look to other three-point gunners if they miss out on him.

Denver's 57 regular season wins were a franchise best, but NBA teams are measured on their success in the postseason. Anthony was around for many of the team's playoff failures, but he was also the centerpiece of the Nuggets' lone escape from the first round in recent memory, in 2009 when they went to the Western Conference Finals. That, coupled with this year's shortcomings, should be enough to persuade Ujiri to step up his pursuit of superstar talent, no matter how risky (Bynum) or unproven (DeMarcus Cousins) it may be.

Additional notes:

  • Mozgov's situation is unusual, since his cap hold is much greater than his $3,925,536 qualifying offer would be. He was undrafted, so he never signed a rookie-scale contract, and thus his cap hold is 190% of his salary from this season instead of the QO.
  • The Nuggets have already made one offseason decision, having kept Quincy Miller on the roster for more than seven days following their final game. That triggered his partial guarantee for next season.
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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Lakers

May 11th, 2013 at 4:58pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (48th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $68,103,755
  • Options: $9,277,280
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,250,000
  • Cap Holds: $41,830,880
  • Total: $121,461,915

Another year, another team waiting on Dwight Howard to make up his mind. In 2012, the Magic seemed stuck in limbo until they finally traded Howard to the Lakers. L.A. doesn't have that option, unless it can pull off a sign-and-trade somehow, and that would require Howard's consent. The Lakers could conceivably wash their hands of the big man and not make an attempt to re-sign him, but there's no reason to suspect they'll do that. The Lakers would like to have Howard back, even if Howard appears increasingly willing to sign elsewhere.

Given Howard's impact on a team, even when not fully healthy as he was this year, and his outsized salary, which will exceed $20MM next season if he gets a max deal, the Lakers essentially must formulate two plans: one with Howard, and the other without. With Howard, the Lakers are looking at a $100MM+ payroll for next season unless they unload some of their contracts via trade or amnesty. Even if keeping the current core intact is reportedly Plan A for the Lakers, I'm not so sure anyone in L.A. has the stomach to go through another season like this past one. The Lakers played much better in the second half of the season before injuries derailed them, but few considered them serious threats for the title even as they went 28-12 over their last 40 games.

Even if Kobe Bryant comes back at full strength to start the season, it's doubtful all the key figures from the end of 2012/13 will be with him. Antawn Jamison, a bargain at the minimum salary this year, isn't likely to return. Earl Clark had a Jekyll-and-Hyde season, and another team might be willing to overpay him based on the potential he showed in his moments of brilliance this year. Metta World Peace has an early-termination option that he'll reportedly decline, but even if he remains under contract, there's certainly no guarantee he'll be back with the Lakers, since the team could amnesty him to defray its tax bill or facilitate other moves.

World Peace, Bryant, Pau Gasol and Steve Blake are the four amnesty-eligible players on the Lakers, but each played a significant role for the team this season. The notion of amnestying Bryant has been a lightning rod for speculation ever since his Achilles injury at the end of the regular season made it conceivable that the Lakers would divest themselves of their pre-eminent star. The opportunity to clear nearly $30.5MM from the books, and even more from the team's tax bill, seems a tempting proposition even though GM Mitch Kupchak distanced himself from the idea in the wake of Bryant's injury.

An amnesty decision would have to be made between July 10th and 16th, long before Bryant's earliest projected return. The Lakers would have to let him go without having seen how the injury will affect his play, and perhaps without much more knowledge than they have now about exactly when he will return. Given Howard's trademark indecisiveness, it's conceivable that he'll still be weighing his options by mid-July, which complicates the amnesty situation even further. Even if they amnesty Bryant, the Lakers still wouldn't have enough room to sign a maximum-salary free agent unless they renounce Howard's rights or he signs with another team.

Trading Gasol would give the Lakers more flexibility. Gasol, if nothing else, could have value as a supersized expiring contract, though his improved performance down the stretch of the season demonstrated that he remains a threat on the inside. He has a 15% trade kicker, meaning he'd earn even more with another team than the $19.29MM he'll receive if he remains a Laker. Few teams will have that kind of available cap space to acquire Gasol without having to aggregate a boatload of outgoing salaries in return — salaries that would likely have to be attached to expiring contracts to interest the Lakers, anyway.

Salary Cap FAQ author Larry Coon examines the possibility that the Lakers could trade Gasol to the Rockets in an effort to accomodate deals for Howard and fellow marquee free agent Chris Paul. He finds that there's no reasonable scenario that would allow for the Lakers to offer max contracts to both Howard and Paul. So, if the Lakers trade Gasol, they would do so with lesser targets in mind, which might explain why the team seems to favor keeping the team, Gasol included, intact for next season. If Howard decides to sign elsewhere, the Lakers might be more likely to trade Gasol and amnesty Bryant or World Peace, since even the removal of Howard's cap hold probably won't be enough by itself to give the Lakers sufficient cap space to replace him.

There's no telling whether Bryant's injury affects his plans to let the Lakers know this summer whether he intends to retire after next season. Executive vice president Jim Buss has made no secret of his desire to go after marquee free agents in the summer of 2014, when LeBron James could hit the market again. The Lakers intentionally structured their contracts so none of them extend past next season, with the exception of Steve Nash's deal, which runs through 2015. The team seems poised to offer Howard a five-year deal that would take up some of its 2014 cap room, but beyond that, I'd be surprised to see them do anything this summer that compromises their flexibility for next summer. Bringing back most of last season's team won't stir excitement in Lakerland, but it's probably in keeping with the team's long-term plans.

Additional notes:

  • It might seem strange to see the names of long-retired players like Karl Malone, Ron Harper and John Salley on the team's ledger, but that just demonstrates how long it's been since the Lakers had cap room. There's been no motivation for the Lakers to renounce their rights to those 40-somethings, since the Lakers are no longer actually paying them, and the extra cap space that clearing those holds would provide would only come in handy if the team had cap space to begin with. L.A. probably won't be clearing cap room until next summer, so Brian Shaw could still be listed as a cap hold even as he becomes head coach of another team. 
  • As a taxpaying team, the CBA no longer allows the Lakers to take on players in sign-and-trade deals, as they did with Nash last summer, but they can still send their own free agents out via sign-and-trades. That way, the Lakers might not come away empty-handed if Howard signs elsewhere, though as I noted above, he would have to give his consent to such an arrangement.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Brooklyn Nets

May 11th, 2013 at 9:45am CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options  

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (22nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $84,445,118
  • Options: $1,106,942
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $788,872
  • Cap Holds: $3,735,079
  • Total: $90,076,011

This time last year, the Nets were busy putting the finishing touches on a shiny new arena in Prospect Heights, but didn't really have a clue as to what kind of product they'd be putting on the floor in 2012/13.  In fact, there were only four players under contract for their inaugural season in Brooklyn with Deron Williams and Gerald Wallace holding player options.  Even though it seemed like things would get hot and heavy between the Mavs and the Nets' star guard, Billy King & Co. ultimately re-signed Williams thanks to the Joe Johnson deal and, depending on who you ask, Mark Cuban's decision to tend to his reality show rather than meet with his club's No. 1 free agent target.

Eighty-nine games later, the Nets have burned through two coaches and are seeking out someone who will put a sizable buffer between themselves and coach No. 4.  In a redux of 1999, the Nets made their pitch to land Phil Jackson but were quickly rebuffed.  Beyond the Zen Master, they find a very deserving longtime assistant in Brian Shaw and another infamous name from their own history – Larry Brown.  There's also the brothers Van Gundy (Jeff, Stan), possible darkhorse Mike Dunleavy Sr., and Deron's bestest friend in the whole wide world, Jerry Sloan.  There's no telling who the next hire will be for the Nets, but they'll presumably seek out someone who can push this team to play tough defense on a nightly basis and mix up the team's playcalling a smidge.  After all, you can only rotate between a Williams isolation play, a Johnson isolation play, and a Williams/Brook Lopez pick-and-roll so many times before the opposition wises up.

Making a change on the bench will only get Brooklyn so far, but it's going to be extremely challenging for this club to truly shake up this roster.  The trades for Johnson and Wallace gave the Nets a short-term boost, but their contracts make them nearly impossible to flip for younger talent.  Johnson will earn $70MM over the next three seasons while Wallace, who appears to be in decline and frustrated with his recent play, will make $33MM in that span.  

Kris Humphries, who had a very disappointing campaign, will also be hard to move as he is set to make $12MM next season.  A team may be willing to take on his expiring contract in hopes that he returns to his form of the previous three seasons, but the Nets will have to sweeten the pot with another piece to get anything of value in return.  The talented and under-utilized MarShon Brooks could help entice someone to take on Hump.  Last offseason's import Mirza Teletovic or 2011 first round pick Bojan Bogdanovic, who will reportedly join the club this summer, could also be decent trade chips.  None of those three players would guarantee a worthwhile deal, however.

The club struggled when it came to pairing someone in the frontcourt alongside Lopez.  When Humphries found himself on the pine, Reggie Evans stepped up and did the dirty work.  However, Evans' lack of offensive acumen makes it tough to give him starter's minutes, especially when he's sharing the floor with Wallace.  Re-signing the sometimes brilliant and sometimes aimless Andray Blatche will go a long way towards solidifying the frontcourt, but they'll need to address the power forward position in order to take a step forward next season.  Someone in the middle of the spectrum between Evans' balls-to-the-wall approach and Lopez's offensive mindset would suit them extremely well.  

Can they get a high caliber four with Humphries and a few shiny pieces?  Could Johnson or Wallace be moved for assets that can be useful in both the short- and long- term?  Neither seems terribly likely given the club's salary cap situation.  That's why the Nets' coaching search is so critical.  It could be the biggest impact move possible for this team.

Additional notes:

  • Beyond the starting five, the Nets may also be forced to retool their bench.  Blatche has said that he wants more consistent playing time, but his familiarity with Brooklyn could convince him to stay and see less burn.  The Nets were also the club that took a gamble on Blatche and got him back on track after he was amnestied by the Wizards.
  • C.J. Watson holds a player's option for the minimum but he will almost certainly decline it as he can get (at least) the minimum from anyone.  Watson would gladly be welcomed back to the Barclays Center but, like Blatche, the guard may choose to play for a team that will showcase him and improve his value beyond next season.  
  • Jerry Stackhouse has enjoyed an exceptionally long career but at the of 38, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him walk away from the game.  Keith Bogans is also a free agent and the Nets would like to hang on to him.

Cap footnotes:

  1. It's not known whether Joseph's contract for 2013/14 includes a partial guarantee, or whether it's fully non-guaranteed. 

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Clippers

May 9th, 2013 at 3:41pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (25th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $43,740,5231
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,681,351
  • Cap Holds: $43,063,103
  • Total: $91,484,9771

Like the Nets a year ago, the Clippers head into the offseason with their future hinging on a decision from their franchise point guard. Unlike the Nets, who still needed to make a flurry of moves to fill out their starting lineup even after Deron Williams agreed to re-sign for the five-year max, the Clips have a solid core already in place, including a franchise player (Blake Griffin) whose own five-year extension kicks in this summer.

That's not to say Chris Paul's decision doesn't represent a crucial moment for the franchise — it does. But if Paul were to leave town in search of greener pastures, it wouldn't necessarily be back to the drawing board for the Clippers, who are coming off the first Pacific Division title in team history.

Fortunately for the Clips, all signs all season have pointed toward Paul re-signing in Los Angeles for five years and $107.34MM. Assuming the team remains confident it will have Paul back next season, that means it will be free to move down the offseason to-do list, addressing a number of additional issues that arise with CP3's return.

For one: Vinny Del Negro's days in L.A. appear numbered, and if Paul is going to be commiting to another five years with the team, you have to figure that means he'll have a voice in the search for a new head coach. Alvin Gentry, Michael Malone, and Byron Scott are among the names that have surfaced as potential Del Negro replacements, and according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, Paul "is fond of" all three.

Once the club hires its coach, it can turn its attention to filling out the roster. If Paul re-signs for the max, the team would already be over the cap, having committed $62MM+ to just six players. Acquiring a player via sign-and-trade is a possibility, but the team will have limited space to pull off a sign-and-trade or use its full mid-level exception. Signing a player using that full MLE would ensure the team is hard-capped for all of next season, like the Bulls were this past year, making in-season moves and upgrades a little tricky.

A long-term deal for Paul would also raise questions about Eric Bledsoe's future in Los Angeles. The Clippers' back-up point guard is eligible for a rookie-scale extension this summer, and the promise he's shown in his first three seasons will ensure there are teams interested in paying big bucks to lock him up. It's hard to see the Clippers being one of those teams though, with Paul penciled in for most of the playing time at the point in L.A. Although the Clippers won't be forced to make a decision on Bledsoe this summer, the team's leverage in trade talks figures to decline as the 23-year-old's free agency approaches. The Clippers could decide to emulate the Thunder's approach with James Harden, moving Bledsoe well in advance of his free agency in order to maximize his trade value.

Whether the Clippers opt to make their major moves via trade or free agency, there are plenty of holes to fill on a roster that currently only has five players on guaranteed contracts for '13/14. While Jamal Crawford has exhibited an exceptional ability to score off the bench, the Clips could use a more defensive-minded starting two guard — Tony Allen comes immediately to mind, though there will likely be plenty of contenders courting him this offseason.

The Clippers could also use an upgrade on Caron Butler on the wing, but their more pressing need may be in the frontcourt. DeAndre Jordan's offensive game is limited, and L.A. could benefit tremendously from another productive big man to take some pressure off of Blake Griffin. Lamar Odom, Ryan Hollins, Ronny Turiaf, and the rest of the Clips' options didn't exactly fill that hole this past season.

Kevin Garnett would be an ideal fit for the Clippers, and was frequently linked to L.A. in trade rumors at the deadline, though it's not clear if KG is interested in continuing his career anywhere except Boston. Even if he were willing to waive his no-trade clause, the price would be steep — I'd imagine the C's would ask for both Jordan and Bledsoe. Paul Millsap's name also surfaced in deadline rumors in relation to the Clippers, but his path to L.A. isn't quite so clear now that he's a free agent. He'll receive more than the mid-level exception, so the Clippers would likely only have a shot at him through a sign-and-trade. Perhaps L.A. could put together a Bledsoe-centric package that would interest the Jazz, given Utah's need for a point guard.

If the Clippers can't land a player like Garnett or Millsap, they could turn their attention to a free agent market that includes a handful of lesser, albeit more obtainable, options. Still, after seeing the Clippers eliminated in the first round this spring, it's clear the team needs at least one more impact player to become a true threat to come out of the West. I'm not sure that impact player will be available for $5MM or less.

Nonetheless, Griffin and Paul have turned the Clippers into a perennial playoff team, and the appeal of Los Angeles will ensure that many free agents gravitate toward the club. It shouldn't be too difficult for the team to put together another solid bench made up of veterans willing to take slight discounts to play for a contender in L.A.

It was a disappointing end to the season in Los Angeles, but with Paul seemingly likely to return, a new head coach expected to take the reins, further development on the way from Griffin and Jordan, and a valuable trade asset (Bledsoe) in hand, there are still plenty of reasons to be excited about the team's future.

Additional notes:

  • Besides Paul, the free agent the Clippers should try hardest to re-sign, in my opinion, is Matt Barnes, who was a terrific value for the veteran's minimum. I'm guessing Barnes will receive more lucrative offers this summer, and the Clips don't hold his Bird rights, so the two sides may be destined to go their separate ways, but I imagine L.A. will try to find a way to bring him back.
  • It will be interesting to see just how much the team values the "veteran leadership" provided by Chauncey Billups and Grant Hill. Neither player contributed a whole lot on the court in 2012/13, and bringing them back for anything more than the minimum could end up being a misallocation of cap space.
  • If the Clippers do try to trade Bledsoe for a veteran, Butler is a decent bet to included in the deal as well. Butler's $8MM cap figure would allow L.A. to take back a significant salary, and his contract will expire at season's end.

Cap footnotes:

  1. The exact figure of Griffin's maximum salary has yet to be determined, so these amounts will likely be a little higher than listed.
  2. It's not known whether Summers' and/or Wayns' contracts for 2013/14 include a partial guarantee, or whether they're fully non-guaranteed.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

May 8th, 2013 at 1:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (34th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $39,338,5221
  • Options: $6,400,000
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $9,180,830
  • Cap Holds: $884,293
  • Total: $55,803,6451

Before the Rockets pulled off the most shocking move of the 2012 offseason, acquiring James Harden from the Thunder just a few nights before the regular season got underway, many pundits were picking them to be among the league's worst teams, down there with the Bobcats and Magic. Even after the trade, it was expected to be a transition year in Houston, with another big move still needed to make the team a real contender.

The Rockets came together much quicker than expected, however, and that was in large part due to the moves made by GM Daryl Morey last summer. In addition to landing Harden, who blossomed into one of the league's elite scorers, Morey signed Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik to big-money offer sheets. Both signings were at least questioned, if not outright panned, at the time, but Lin and Asik didn't disappoint. And at about $8.37MM each per year, both players are affordable core pieces or trade chips, as Morey enters this offseason in search of that second star to pair with Harden.

Looking at the Rockets' current cap situation, a couple items of note immediately jump off the page. First, the team somehow heads into this summer with technically no expiring contracts on its books. Sure, Francisco Garcia's contract is essentially expiring, since his $6.4MM option won't be exercised, and not all of the team's non-guaranteed players will be retained. But with no player options or unrestricted free agents to be found, Morey has given the club the opportunity to bring back any and/or all of its players next season, which is extraordinary in today's NBA. Houston's tendency to sign contracts that included a season or two of non-guaranteed control is what allows the team to retain hidden gems like Chandler Parsons and Patrick Beverley at bargain-basement prices.

The second item of note relating to the Rockets' cap? They should be able to afford a maximum-salary player this summer. Depending on where next year's salary cap settles, the team may need to make an extra move or two to clear the necessary space to make a max offer to, for instance, Dwight Howard. But Houston has virtually no toxic assets, meaning small moves like that should be simple. If the club needed to move, say, Donatas Motiejunas' modest salary to clear space for a max offer for Howard, teams would be lining up to acquire a young player like Motiejunas, who is on an inexpensive contract for the next three seasons.

In the past, we've seen the Rockets take advantage of their room under the cap to facilitate trades. Their cap flexibility allowed them to bail the Thunder out of long-term tax issues in the Harden deal, and Houston's ability to take on salary made the team an ideal trading partner for Sacramento when the Kings moved Thomas Robinson this past season. Robinson was the prize in the deal for the Rockets, but they wouldn't have been able to land him had they not been willing to take on Garcia's contract as well.

So based on their history, we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the Rockets elect to use their 2013 cap space to make another trade or two. But if the team is going to land a star, free agency looks like its best bet. Although the Rockets still have plenty of young talent on the roster that could be expendable in the right deal, most of the draft assets the team had acculumated have been used in other deals. For example, Houston essentially sent Oklahoma City four draft picks in the Harden deal — 2012's 12th overall pick (Jeremy Lamb), Toronto's 2013 first-rounder, a future Mavericks' first-rounder, and Charlotte's 2013 second-rounder. Now that they're no longer holding all those picks, the Rockets only have a couple extra second-rounders in hand, and don't have their first-rounder in 2013, making it more difficult to pull off a blockbuster.

Still, having fewer trade chips shouldn't be a problem if Houston can land the right player in free agency. Howard obviously represents the top priority, but I wonder if the Rockets would be happy to land someone in the second tier — perhaps a player like Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, or Al Jefferson. Those players will be expensive and they don't exactly qualify as superstars, so maybe Morey would be reluctant to settle for one of them rather than landing a bigger fish.

After turning what initially looked like a lottery team into a playoff club that nearly took the Thunder to seven games, Morey is facing the next step of the rebuilding process this offseason. By essentially giving himself 2013/14 options on half the roster, he could go in any number of directions, whether or not the Rockets are able to land a second star. At this point, the GM has earned the benefit of the doubt in Houston, and it will be fascinating to see what he has up his sleeve to keep improving his team this summer.

Additional notes:

  • Before next season begins, the Rockets will have to decide whether or not to exercise Royce White's third-year option, worth $1,793,520. That's a small price to pay if they feel like White can still reach his potential, but after a lost rookie season, it certainly isn't a given.
  • Many of the Rockets' non-guaranteed players' futures will likely depend on whether or not the team needs that space to pursue a max contract. Carlos Delfino is a nice value at $3MM, but if he gets in the way of that max space, he could be cut loose.
  • A decision on Delfino is due by June 30th, but the team won't have to decide on many of its other non-guaranteed players until a little later.

Cap footnotes:

  1. The exact figure of Harden's maximum salary has yet to be determined, so these amounts will likely be a little higher than listed.
  2. Honeycutt was waived this past season, but his contract included a $100K guarantee for 2013/14.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook Series

June 18th, 2012 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Since the end of the regular season, I've been taking an in-depth look at each of the NBA's 30 teams and the challenges they'll face as they try to improve their rosters this summer. All 30 Offseason Outlook pieces have been published, so if you missed any of your favorite teams, now's your chance to go back and read their offseason previews. Here's a link to each piece, sorted by division….

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