Offseason Preview

Offseason Outlook: San Antonio Spurs

June 18th, 2012 at 2:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Manu Ginobili ($14,107,491)
Tony Parker ($12,500,000)
Stephen Jackson ($10,059,750)
Tiago Splitter ($3,944,000)
Matt Bonner ($3,630,000)
Kawhi Leonard ($1,809,840)
Cory Joseph ($1,074,720)

Options

Patrick Mills ($885,120, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

DeJuan Blair ($1,054,000)
Gary Neal ($854,389)
Derrick Byars ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Tim Duncan ($22,222,850)
Danny Green ($2,695,391 – QO)
James Anderson ($1,565,640)
Boris Diaw ($854,389)
(Robert Horry – $6,897,000)
(Chris Quinn – $854,389)
(Glenn Robinson – $854,389)
(Damon Stoudamire – $854,389)
(Nick Van Exel – $854,389)
(Jacque Vaughn – $854,389)

Draft Picks

2nd Round (59th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $47,125,801
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $42,062,919
Total (not including draft picks): $89,188,720

While the Spurs' situation heading into the 2012 offseason is a little reminiscent of the Celtics', there are a few key differences between the two teams that will likely dictate San Antonio's plan of attack this summer. Whereas the Celtics have the opportunity to clear a ton of cap space if they don't re-sign the players that helped them win their title (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen), the Spurs don't have quite the same flexibility. Plus, they only have one major contributor to their championship teams facing free agency — Tim Duncan.

Because Duncan is unlikely to retire or play anywhere besides San Antonio, I think we can safely assume that the two-time MVP will re-sign with the Spurs. Even if he takes a big paycut on his next deal, retaining Duncan will likely ensure that the Spurs remain an over-the-cap team. Re-signing players like Danny Green and Boris Diaw shouldn't be a problem, but San Antonio won't have more than the mid-level to throw at other free agents in July.

Unfortunately, where a team like Boston has cap room and a pair of first-round picks to make solid improvements around its core, San Antonio doesn't have the same luxury. The team's only draft pick is at the end of the second round, and its options with the mid-level will be limited. A recent report suggested that the Spurs might kick the tires on the Celtics' Garnett, but it's hard to imagine how they could afford a player of that caliber with only the MLE at their disposal.

Still, $5MM is enough to land a solid player, and it's more than luxury-tax clubs like the Heat, Lakers, and Bulls will be able to offer free agents. Depending on which of their own free agents are re-signed, the Spurs should have some options — if Green, Diaw, and Patrick Mills all return, there aren't any obvious holes in the team's rotation. Perhaps San Antonio's top target could be another big man, particularly if the team has any concerns about Tiago Splitter's development. On the other hand, if Mills were to opt out of his contract and sign elsewhere, a free agent point guard to complement Tony Parker could be the team's preference.

Outside of retaining their own free agents and perhaps signing one or two outside players, the Spurs shouldn't be too active this summer. They still have the amnesty clause available, but it can't be used on Stephen Jackson, who was acquired via trade. Matt Bonner, making $3.63MM, is an amnesty candidate, but cutting the Red Rocket wouldn't increase the team's financial flexibility much.

GM R.C. Buford proved a year ago that he isn't shy about making unexpected deals, when he sent George Hill to the Pacers in a trade that landed the Spurs Kawhi Leonard. You never know if Buford has another move like that up his sleeve, but I wouldn't expect San Antonio to make any major trades. Players like Parker and Manu Ginobili aren't going anywhere yet, and the Spurs don't really have any other players that would be as valuable elsewhere as they are in San Antonio.

A couple weeks ago, in the midst of a 20-game winning streak, it looked like the Spurs were on their way to another title. They may be a year older in 2012/13, but there's no reason to believe that the same group with a couple tweaks, shouldn't be a strong contender again. The prime of the Duncan/Ginobili/Parker era may be behind us, but I'd be surprised if the Spurs don't bring back Duncan and try to make at least one more run at the Finals.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls

June 15th, 2012 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Derrick Rose ($15,506,632)
Carlos Boozer ($15,000,000)
Luol Deng ($13,305,000)
Joakim Noah ($11,300,000)
Richard Hamilton ($5,000,000)
Taj Gibson ($2,155,811)
Jimmy Butler ($1,066,920)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Kyle Korver ($5,000,000; partially guaranteed for $500,000)
Ronnie Brewer ($4,370,000; partially guaranteed for $333,333)
C.J. Watson ($3,200,000)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Omer Asik ($2,414,750)
Mike James ($854,389)
John Lucas ($854,389)
Brian Scalabrine ($854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (29th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $64,167,696
Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $16,714,584
Total (not including draft picks): $80,882,280

2011/12 was a "What if?" season for the Chicago Bulls, who very well could be playing for the NBA title right now if it weren't for injuries to Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah early in the playoffs. Rose is expected to miss a good chunk of next season as well, but there's enough talent on the roster that the team should stay afloat without him, and could make a second-half run when he returns.

Before the Bulls take the floor in the fall though, a number of roster decisions face the team. Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and C.J. Watson all have non-guaranteed contracts for next season — Korver and Brewer have modest partial guarantees, but cutting all three players would still save the Bulls nearly $12MM.

I expect the Bulls to release at least one or two of the guys on non-guaranteed deals, but there's no real urgency to cut that salary. Chicago isn't in position to create room under the cap, and re-signing restricted free agent Omer Asik and filling out the roster will probably take the club into the luxury tax anyway. Replacing someone like Watson or Brewer with a lower-cost alternative, either through the draft or free agency, could be prudent, but that decision shouldn't affect the team's ability to spend elsewhere.

If they're a taxpaying team, the Bulls will only have the $3MM mini mid-level exception, along with minimum-salary exceptions, to spend in free agency. Steve Nash and Jason Kidd are rumored targets for Chicago, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. Nash, in particular, seems unlikely to choose a destination where he could only earn $3MM annually and a franchise point guard is already in place. Kidd might be a stronger fit though, and the Bulls could also kick the tires on guys like Raymond Felton, Chauncey Billups, and Kirk Hinrich.

Of course, Chicago doesn't necessarily have to allocate that mini mid-level to a point guard acquisition, but it seems like the most logical choice. Assuming the team re-signs Asik, which GM Gar Forman has suggested will happen, the Bulls are in good shape with Noah, Asik, Taj Gibson, and Carlos Boozer up front. With Luol Deng on the wing and Richard Hamilton at the two, the Bulls' biggest hole is at the point. The team will be targeting a player that can carry a heavy load early in the season, then settle into a smaller role when Rose gets healthy.

The Bulls also hold the 29th pick in a deep draft, and while they probably won't find their point guard answer at that spot, there should be plenty of intriguing two guards available. Given Hamilton's health issues this year, adding a scorer to back him up makes some sense. John Jenkins, Doron Lamb, and Jared Cunningham could be among the Bulls' possibilities at No. 29.

While some Bulls fans may be expecting the team to use its amnesty provision on Boozer or to explore a blockbuster trade involving Noah or Deng, I think it's unlikely Chicago does anything too drastic this summer. The Bulls finished the regular season tied for the NBA's best record in a year when Rose never seemed completely healthy. There's no reason to believe the team as constructed, with perhaps a few small tweaks, can't be a title contender with better luck on the injury front.

Rose's ACL surgery was certainly bad news in the short term, but as Forman has said before, it shouldn't affect Chicago's long-term plans. I expect the Bulls to exercise patience this offseason, rather than desperately looking for any quick fixes.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 14th, 2012 at 1:20pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Kevin Durant ($16,669,629)
Russell Westbrook ($12,922,194)
Kendrick Perkins ($7,800,531)
James Harden ($5,820,417)
Thabo Sefolosha ($3,600,000)
Daequan Cook ($3,090,942)
Nick Collison ($2,929,332)
Cole Aldrich ($2,445,480)
Eric Maynor ($2,338,721)
Serge Ibaka ($2,253,062)
Reggie Jackson ($1,208,400)
Lazar Hayward ($1,174,080)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

None

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Nazr Mohammed ($7,125,000)
Derek Fisher ($2,790,000)
Royal Ivey ($1,560,000)

Draft Picks

1st Round (28th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $62,252,788
Cap Holds: $11,475,000
Total (not including draft picks): $73,727,788

As Oklahoma City made its run to the 2012 Finals, the traditional narrative suggested the team wasn't supposed to be this good this soon. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are only 23 years old. James Harden and Serge Ibaka are 22. There are a handful of veterans on the club, most notably the 37-year-old Derek Fisher, but the nucleus of the championship roster is incredibly young.

Unfortunately, due to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, this won't necessarily be the start of a Thunder dynasty. Durant and Westbrook are locked up to long-term deals, but the status of the rest of the team's core is up in the air. Harden and Ibaka are entering the final year of their rookie contracts, and will be eligible for extensions this offseason, but it's not clear if the Thunder has the financial means to extend both players.

To be clear, the Thunder aren't in the same situation as a team like New York — the Knicks could afford to re-sign all their own free agents and pursue others as well, but cap restrictions will likely prevent them from doing so, even if they have money to spend. For Oklahoma City, cap rules wouldn't stop them from extending both Harden and Ibaka for up to maximum-salary contracts. But as a small market team, the Thunder may not be able to afford such expenditures. The team already has $45MM committed to team salaries in 2014/15, for instance. Eight-figure salaries for Harden and Ibaka would push that number up near $70MM, with the Thunder still needing to fill their remaining roster spots. With more punitive luxury tax penalties on the way, retaining all their stars would almost certainly make the Thunder an annual taxpayer, something they may want to avoid.

The Thunder's potential spending limitations also explain why using the amnesty clause on someone like Kendrick Perkins to create room for extensions probably wouldn't work. While the Thunder might be able to sneak below the tax line if they were to amnesty Perkins and re-sign Harden and Ibaka, the team would still be paying significant money for Perkins not to play for them, which is feasible for big-market teams like the Knicks, but less so for Oklahoma City.

If it seems like I'm focusing too much on the Thunder's future and not on this summer, that's because all the club's moves in the coming months will be made with an eye on that future. Using the mid-level exception to sign a second- or third-tier free agent to a multiyear deal is probably a long shot, for example, since that long-term salary would compromise the Thunder's ability to eventually re-sign Harden and Ibaka. Trading either player is unlikely as well. Even if the Thunder decide they can't keep both players, they can still play another season with the current core and try to get back to the Finals before possibly losing one in free agency next summer.

I expect the Thunder to explore extensions with both Harden and Ibaka this offseason, and perhaps they'll even lock up one of the two, particularly if either player is willing to accept a slight discount. But it's more likely that the Thunder will have a quiet summer, adding a cheap free agent or two and perhaps a rookie with their late first-round pick.

GM Sam Presti has been creative in the way he's constructed the Thunder to date, and it has paid off in a big way this season. Now that he's built a championship contender, he'll face a challenge that could be just as difficult: Finding a way to keep the core of that title contender intact.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Heat

June 13th, 2012 at 9:54am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Chris Bosh ($17,545,000)
LeBron James ($17,545,000)
Dwyane Wade ($17,182,000)
Mike Miller ($5,800,000)
Udonis Haslem ($4,060,000)
Mario Chalmers ($4,000,000)
Joel Anthony ($3,750,000)
Shane Battier ($3,135,000)
(James Jones – $1,757,161)
James Jones ($1,500,000)
Norris Cole ($1,082,520)

Options

Ronny Turiaf ($1,146,337, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Dexter Pittman ($854,389)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Terrel Harris ($962,195 – QO)
Eddy Curry ($854,389)
Juwan Howard ($854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (27th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $77,356,681
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $4,671,699
Total (not including draft picks): $82,028,380

The Heat’s cap situation heading into the offseason isn’t unlike that of the Lakers. Both teams have three huge contracts surrounded by a handful of arguably overpriced complementary players. Both teams are not just over the cap, but well over the luxury tax line as well, with 2012/13 cap figures in the high-seventies. Unlike the Lakers though, the Heat have made the last two NBA Finals, and don’t necessarily have to make a big move this summer to reach that next level.

Of course, if the Heat fall short again in the Finals this year, the calls for Miami to move one of its Big Three will grow louder. LeBron James is untouchable, but there’s a case to be made that trading Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh for an impact player at the point or in the middle could give the Heat a stronger, more balanced roster.

Win or lose against the Thunder though, I just can’t see Miami seriously considering such a drastic move. We’re only two years removed from The Decision, and while anything short of championships may be considered a disappointment for this squad, making back-to-back Finals is a pretty remarkable feat for a roster that hadn’t played together before 2010. You could make the case that the Heat should have won a year ago against the Mavericks, and they’re certainly not massive underdogs against Oklahoma City. Blowing up the roster and having to spend another year adjusting to key new additions seems too premature and reactionary for it to be a real possibility. Particularly when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh agreed to take below-max deals to play together.

If no blockbuster trades are on the horizon in Miami, the offseason could turn out to be fairly dull. The team still has its amnesty clause, but even using it on someone like Mike Miller wouldn’t clear enough salary to matter — it would only reduce the Heat’s tax payment.

The Heat do have a late first-round draft pick, and given how 2011 28th overall pick Norris Cole found his way into the rotation this season, it’s reasonable to expect the team to use the 27th pick on a player that could contribute immediately. This draft class isn’t quite deep enough that an impact point guard or center will be available that late, but a senior like Draymond Green, who ESPN.com’s Chad Ford has Miami selecting in his most recent mock, is an example of a player who could step in right away.

If the Heat hope to find an upgrade at point guard or center, free agency is their best bet, but their resources will be limited. As a taxpaying team, Miami will only have the $3MM mid-level exception at its disposal, along with minimum-salary contracts. There’s a chance that a veteran who wants to chase a title alongside James, Wade, and Bosh would sign a discounted deal for that MLE. But top options on the market, such as Steve Nash, Goran Dragic, or Chris Kaman aren’t likely fits. Perhaps the Heat could kick the tires on guys like Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, Kirk Hinrich, and Derek Fisher at the point. Aaron Gray, Chris Wilcox, Jermaine O’Neal, Ian Mahinmi, and Greg Oden highlight the list of potential center targets.

Whether or not the Heat top the Thunder in the 2012 Finals, Miami has shown it has a roster talented enough to perenially contend for the title. If the club falls short this year and again in 2012/13, it could be time to start talking about a franchise-altering trade, but for now, it makes sense to stay the course, making minor additions via free agency and the draft.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Indiana Pacers

June 12th, 2012 at 12:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Danny Granger ($13,058,606)
David West ($10,000,000)
Tyler Hansbrough ($3,055,259)
Paul George ($2,574,120)
Darren Collison ($2,319,344)
Jeff Pendergraph ($1,500,000)

Options

Dahntay Jones ($2,900,000, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Lance Stephenson ($870,000)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Leandro Barbosa ($11,400,000)
Roy Hibbert ($6,471,475)
George Hill ($3,851,158)
Louis Amundson ($3,592,485)
A.J. Price ($1,085,120 – QO)
Kyrylo Fesenko ($854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (26th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary (including options): $35,407,329
Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $28,124,627
Total (not including draft picks): $63,531,956

Pacers president Larry Bird took home Executive of the Year honors this season, and for good reason. No NBA team got more bang for its buck this year than the Pacers, who finished third in the Eastern Conference with one of the league's lowest cap figures. Indiana had so much free cap space that the club was able to absorb Leandro Barbosa's $7.6MM salary at the deadline without sending any salary the other way, and still had plenty of breathing room below the cap.

While the Pacers head into the summer with only about $35MM in guaranteed money committed to next year's salaries (assuming Dahntay Jones picks up his player option), that cap flexibility will be tested a little. Roy Hibbert and George Hill are facing restricted free agency, and both players figure to be attractive commodities. The Pacers have plenty of room to match offers for both players, but if Hibbert receives a $10MM+ contract and Hill's exceeds $5MM, that won't leave much remaining cap space for outside free agents.

That may not be a problem for the Pacers, who are typically restrained when it comes to free agent spending. Last offseason's David West signing represented the team's largest free agent investment in recent years, and his deal was a modest two years for $20MM — already this season, it will become an expiring contract. Still, if Pacers fans are hoping their team makes a major play for someone like Steve Nash, they may be disappointed. Unless the team decides to part ways with Hibbert or Hill or trade Danny Granger, it's unlikely the Pacers will be able to bring another major free agent aboard.

Still, with plenty of players on rookie contracts, such as Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough, and Darren Collison, the Pacers have plenty of options. Indiana could choose to shop some of its young players in trade packages, or simply lock them up and commit to building around them. Hansbrough and Collison will both be eligible for extensions this offseason.

Holding a late-first-rounder once again in this year's draft, the Pacers are unlikely to find a star at 26th overall, but the team has drafted well in recent years, and this year's draft class is a deep one. Indiana could target a talented prospect whose stock has slipped in recent weeks, such as Quincy Miller or Royce White, and should be able to add another affordable rotation player with the pick.

With a number of affordable rotation players on board already though, I expect the Pacers to at least explore the possibility of a major trade. Under Bird, Indiana has avoided making huge splashes, electing instead to make modest moves like the West signing or the trade for Hill — moves that improve the team incrementally. But it's unclear if the Pacers will be able to hang with the Eastern Conference elite if Granger is their best player. As good a scorer as he can be, he lacks the star power of a LeBron James, Derrick Rose, or even a Rajon Rondo. The Pacers' style certainly doesn't call for a Carmelo Anthony-esque isolation player, but an elite scorer that could be trusted with the ball in his hands in the last two minutes of the game would certainly help. I'm not sure that such a player is out there for a package centered around Granger, but it's worth a look.

Ultimately, I anticipate a relatively straightforward summer for the Pacers. Hibbert and Hill should be retained, and perhaps another free agent or two will be added to the nucleus using remaining cap space or exceptions. The Pacers have been patiently building their core for a few years now, and aren't about to blow things up after their most successful season yet. Whether or not another modest addition or two will be enough to challenge for the Eastern Conference title is up for debate, but I expect Indiana to try to find out.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

June 11th, 2012 at 11:10am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Zach Randolph ($16,500,000)
Rudy Gay ($16,460,538)
Marc Gasol ($13,891,359)
Mike Conley ($7,305,786)
Tony Allen ($3,300,000)
Dante Cunningham ($2,090,000)
Quincy Pondexter ($1,234,320)
Jeremy Pargo ($1,000,000)
Josh Selby ($762,195)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

None

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

O.J. Mayo ($11,265,274)
Marreese Speights ($6,803,138)
Darrell Arthur ($5,067,798)
Hamed Haddadi ($2,470,000)
Lester Hudson ($1,085,120 – QO)
Gilbert Arenas ($854,389)
(Steven Hunter – $7,022,400)
(Leon Powe – $854,389)
(Marcus Williams – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (25th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $62,544,198
Cap Holds: $36,276,897
Total (not including draft picks): $98,821,095

After an early exit from the postseason, the Grizzlies face the unenviable task of not only trying to find a way to improve the team, but simply finding a way to keep the current roster intact. Big contracts, a handful of restricted free agents, and a reluctance to cross the luxury tax threshold mean the Grizzlies will have to get creative if they want to avoid losing a key contributor or two.

Memphis has over $62MM already committed to guaranteed contracts for next season, with Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley making up a huge chunk of that figure. The four starters will earn a combined $54MM+ in 2012/13. While the Grizzlies' cap situation would be the envy of a big-market club like the Lakers, it creates some issues in Memphis. Owner Michael Heisley has been adamant that his team "can't be in the luxury tax business" and says the club isn't in position to add much salary.

If the entire Grizzlies core were under contract, the luxury tax wouldn't be an issue, but three players the team would like to keep – O.J. Mayo, Marreese Speights, and Darrell Arthur – are facing free agency this summer. If Memphis wants to avoid the tax line, which figures to be a little over $70MM, retaining those players will be at the very least challenging, if not impossible.

Consider the qualifying offers the Grizzlies will have to extend if they even want to make those three players restricted free agents, rather than unrestricted. Mayo would have to be offered about $7.39MM, Speights $4.39MM, and Arthur $3MM. If those one-year offers were extended, Memphis would risk the players accepting them, which would send payroll soaring well past the tax threshold, to $77MM+.

The Grizzlies' tricky cap situation is why Gay's name will come up frequently in trade talks this offseason. While Heisley insists the club's leading scorer isn't on the block and isn't going anywhere, it makes all the sense in the world for Memphis to at least listen to offers. If a team like the Raptors, for instance, wanted to offer its lottery pick and a young player or two (think James Johnson or Ed Davis) for Gay, it would allow the Grizzlies to add young talent and cut costs, creating the room to re-sign its free agents.

If Gay stays put though, the Grizzlies will likely prepare to part ways with Mayo. Memphis should have room to retain at least one of Speights or Arthur, if not both, but that would mean the club wouldn't have the flexibility to add any outside free agents. And as good as the Grizz looked at times this past season, losing Mayo without making any major addition wouldn't put the team in a great position to compete with the Western Conference elite.

We'll get a better idea of how much stock to put into Heisley's comments about Gay as this month's draft approaches. If the Grizzlies hold onto the 25-year-old through June 28th, it's unlikely they move him this summer — their best opportunity to clear the cap amount necessary to sign their free agents is by moving Gay in a deal for a draft pick, since they could get fair value without taking significant salary back. Given how many lottery teams covet an athletic small forward, I'd be surprised not to see the Grizzlies listen to offers, but either way, we can look forward to an interesting offseason in Memphis.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Lakers

June 8th, 2012 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Kobe Bryant ($27,849,149)
Pau Gasol ($19,000,000)
Andrew Bynum ($16,100,000)
Metta World Peace ($7,258,960)
Steve Blake ($4,000,000)
Josh McRoberts ($3,135,000)
Christian Eyenga ($1,174,080)

Options

Ramon Sessions ($4,551,626, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Andrew Goudelock ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Jordan Hill ($3,632,527)
Matt Barnes ($2,478,060)
Devin Ebanks ($1,054,389 – QO)
Darius Morris ($962,195 – QO)
Troy Murphy ($854,389)
(Ron Harper – $2,860,000)
(Shammond Williams – $2,100,000)
(Karl Malone – $1,800,000)
(Horace Grant – $854,389)
(Jim Jackson – $854,389)
(Ira Newble – $854,389)
(Theo Ratliff – $854,389)
(Mitch Richmond – $854,389)
(John Salley – $854,389)
(Brian Shaw – $854,389)
(Joe Smith – $854,389)

Draft Picks

2nd Round (60th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $78,517,189
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $27,890,493
Total (not including draft picks): $106,407,682

For some NBA teams, making the second round of the playoffs would represent a hugely successful season. The Lakers' Staples Center cohabitants, for instance, probably fit that bill — the Clippers certainly weren't disappointed by a season in which they set a franchise record for winning percentage and were knocked out in the Western Conference Semis. But for the Lakers, a second-round exit just isn't going to cut it.

Following back-to-back resounding second-round defeats, there are rumblings that big changes could be in store for the Lakers this offseason. Even after dumping Lamar Odom in December though, the team doesn't have the cap flexibility to be a factor in free agency. After picking up Andrew Bynum's 2012/13 option, the Lakers' salary commitments for next season total a whopping $78.5MM for just seven players, putting them not only over the cap, but well over the luxury tax line as well.

The amnesty clause is still available for the Lakers, since they didn't use it in December, but it doesn't figure to make a huge impact. The club can't create any cap space unless it amnesties Kobe Bryant, which is about as likely as the Bobcats winning the 2013 NBA Finals. Using the amnesty provision on a player like Metta World Peace would reduce the Lakers' tax penalty, but wouldn't change their cap situation — the team would still be in the tax, with only the $3MM mini mid-level exception at its disposal.

It's not out of the question that the Lakers' small MLE could bring in a solid rotation player. They could make a bid for a small forward like Gerald Green, or perhaps a point guard coming off a down year like Raymond Felton. The appeal of the Lakers' franchise and its history might mean that a player who could earn a little more money elsewhere would be willing to play in Los Angeles for $3MM annually.

Before the Lakers target Felton or any other point guard, however, they'll have to figure out what to do with their in-house option. Ramon Sessions has a player option worth about $4.55MM, and even though he didn't impress in the postseason, Sessions could likely find a solid multiyear offer on the open market. He's a good bet to opt out of the final year of his deal, in which case the Lakers will have to decide whether they want to lock him up for multiple years or go a different direction. Sessions represented a significant improvement on the early-season combination of Steve Blake and Derek Fisher, and the Lakers will have limited free agent flexibility, so I can see the two sides working out a new contract to keep the former Cav in L.A.

Of course, while the Lakers may not be able to make a splash in free agency, they do hold two big trade chips, in Bynum and Pau Gasol. Gasol was nearly traded last December in a deal for Chris Paul, and I expect the Lakers wouldn't hesitate to move the Spaniard "again" if it means landing a top point guard. The Rockets are a potential trade partner, having long coveted Gasol and with a young point guard to offer in Kyle Lowry.

Gasol's contract, which has two years and $38MM+ left, may be a tough pill to swallow for some interested suitors, however. If the Lakers want to maximize their trade impact, they'll consider offers for Bynum. Although there are questions about his makeup and his approach, he's arguably the second-best center in the NBA behind Dwight Howard, and is still just 24 years old. It sounds as if the Lakers' brass love Bynum and hope to make him the cornerstone of the franchise after Kobe is gone, so the team probably won't move him unless they can land Howard and get a long-term commitment from D12.

The Lakers head into the offseason searching for a way to surround Bryant with a team that can legitimately contend for a title in the immediate future. Los Angeles didn't hesitate to trade both of its first-round draft picks at the deadline, and won't be looking to add young talent that can't contribute right away. If the Lakers make a big trade this summer, it's likely to involve Gasol, and it's likely to bring in a player or two that can make the team better right away, rather than down the road. If the Lakers can find such a deal, this may be the time that all those blockbuster trade rumors finally turn into something concrete.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

June 5th, 2012 at 6:38pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Joe Johnson ($19,752,645)
Josh Smith ($13,200,000)
Al Horford ($12,000,000)
Marvin Williams ($8,287,500)
Zaza Pachulia ($5,248,750)
Jeff Teague ($2,433,077)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Ivan Johnson ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Kirk Hinrich ($12,000,000)
Jason Collins ($854,389)
Erick Dampier ($854,389)
Willie Green ($854,389)
Tracy McGrady ($854,389)
Jannero Pargo ($854,389)
Vladimir Radmanovic ($854,389)
Jerry Stackhouse ($854,389)
(Hilton Armstrong – $854,389)
(Randolph Morris – $854,389)
(Josh Powell – $854,389)
(Etan Thomas – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (23rd overall)
2nd Round (43rd overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $60,921,972
Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $22,160,474
Total (not including draft picks): $83,082,446

2011/12 was another productive season for Joe Johnson, who averaged over 18 PPG for the seventh straight year and bested his career rates by averaging 18.4 PER and .454/.388/.849 shooting. Unfortunately for Johnson, despite his play on the court, he's still best known for signing one of the most exorbitant contracts in NBA history, one that could handicap the Hawks this summer and in the future.

Johnson's cap figure, which increases to nearly $20MM in 2012/13, isn't the only thing hampering the Hawks' financial flexibility. Teammates Al Horford and Josh Smith will also be making $12MM+, and Marvin Williams is earning $8MM+ himself. Add it all up and the Hawks have committed $60MM+ to six players for next year.

This season, the Hawks dealt with their lack of cap flexibility by signing a plethora of players to minimum-salary deals — Tracy McGrady, Erick Dampier, and Jerry Stackhouse were among the eight players earning minimum salaries for Atlanta in 2011/12. However, relying on the same strategy again likely won't get the team anywhere. For the past few years, the Hawks have been good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to seriously contend for the East, and a shake-up is needed if the team hopes to make its way into the top tier of the conference.

Fortunately for the Hawks, the amnesty provision is still a possibility. Unfortunately, the club has so many potential amnesty candidates that they might be best served to hang onto it for now. While a player like Williams looks like a reasonable candidate this season, it might be a mistake for the Hawks to wipe his relatively modest contract off the books and leave themselves defenseless if Horford's or Johnson's deals eventually take a turn for the worse. Assuming Horford is fully healthy, both guys are still productive contributors for now, but each have four years and plenty of money left on their contracts ($48MM for Horford, $89MM+ for Johnson). Having the opportunity to amnesty one of those veterans if they suffer from injuries or declining production later in their deals could be more valuable to Atlanta than lesser immediate savings.

If they don't use the amnesty clause to create cap space, the Hawks could turn to the trade market. Williams may still have a little value to a team interested in a former second overall pick on an expiring contract, though Atlanta likely wouldn't get anything of use in return. The Hawks' more intriguing trade candidate is Smith, who has hoped to be moved for some time. A perennial candidate for All-Star consideration, Smith should be a valuable asset, though considering he's still in Atlanta, it seems the Hawks have yet to find a suitable offer. In my view, the club's best option could be trying to deal Smith in a package for a lottery pick, without taking on much salary in return. A team like the Blazers might be a logical trade partner.

If the Hawks are interested in really blowing things up, making a play for Dwight Howard makes some sense as well. A package that includes Smith and Horford could interest the Magic, and if the Hawks acquired Howard and failed to re-sign him, at least it would give the club some flexibility to regain cap room and rebuild around Johnson.

Atlanta's other asset of note comes in the form of its first-round draft pick. While the Hawks don't pick until 23rd overall, this year's deep class of prospects means that pick could turn into something worthwhile, whether it's a guard like Tony Wroten, a big like Fab Melo, or a wing like Quincy Miller.

The Hawks may not be major players on the free agent market this summer, but it wouldn't be a surprise to hear the team mentioned in a handful of trade rumors. Something has to change if the Hawks are going to turn into a legit Eastern Conference contender, and the trade market seems to present the best opportunity for Atlanta to make significant changes this offseason.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Clippers

June 5th, 2012 at 1:14pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Chris Paul ($17,779,458)
DeAndre Jordan ($10,532,977)
Caron Butler ($8,000,000)
Blake Griffin ($7,226,892)
Ryan Gomes ($4,000,000)
Eric Bledsoe ($1,707,720)
Trey Thompkins ($762,195)

Options

Mo Williams ($8,500,000, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Travis Leslie ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Randy Foye ($5,525,000)
Nick Young ($4,435,028)
Kenyon Martin ($3,000,000)
Chauncey Billups ($2,400,038)
Reggie Evans ($854,389)
Bobby Simmons ($854,389)

Draft Picks

2nd Round (53rd overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $50,009,242
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $26,331,039
Total (not including draft picks): $76,340,281

Coming off a season in which the team set a franchise record with a .606 winning percentage and reached the second round of the playoffs, it's hard for Clippers fans to be anything but pleased. Chris Paul gave the team a star point guard to pair with the up-and-coming Blake Griffin, who earned All-NBA honors for the first time in his second full season.

But as successful a season as 2011/12 was, the Clippers will need to be careful to ensure it was the first step on the road to contending perenially, rather than an aberration. With GM Neil Olshey heading to Portland, the Clips will be tasked with finding a worthy successor to guide the franchise through a number of tough roster decisions and contract negotiations in the coming year.

While the Clippers won't be forced to make an immediate decision on either Paul or Griffin, contract extensions for the two stars will be a top priority for the club. Griffin is entering the final year of his rookie contract, making him eligible for an extension this offseason. The Clips are reportedly confident about getting something done before the 23-year-old reaches restricted free agency, so you have to assume they're prepared to offer a maximum-salary contract, or something very close to it.

Paul, meanwhile, has committed to his 2012/13 player option, but will be eligible for unrestricted free agency a year from now. A new contract for him this summer may not be as likely as one for Griffin, given the rules surrounding veteran extensions. So it will be crucial for the Clippers to convince him to stay by showing they're committed to making the moves necessary to ensure the team is a contender for years to come.

With no first-round draft pick and limited cap flexibility this summer, however, what exactly can the Clippers do in terms of roster moves? The team has yet to take advantage of the amnesty clause, and while it could go unused, Ryan Gomes' $4MM 2012/13 salary makes him a candidate. If Mo Williams opts into the final year of his contract though, amnestying Gomes would only reduce the team's cap figure from about $58.5MM to $54.5MM, which wouldn't create any usable cap space.

If Williams opts out, the team will have more options at it disposal, but I have a hard time seeing the veteran guard declining his option. As much as Williams seems to desire long-term security, passing up an $8.5MM salary in 2012/13 in favor of a new contract that would significantly reduce his annual salary seems unlikely.

With Williams on their books, the Clippers will be over the cap and will have only the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions to use on free agents. The MLE could give them a chance to bid on a shooting guard such as Jamal Crawford, Ray Allen, or Jason Terry if they don't elect to re-sign Nick Young. The BAE, meanwhile, may not be significant enough to woo an impact player, but we've seen veterans willing to accept discounted deals to play in Los Angeles or New York before. With Paul and Griffin on board for at least another year, the Clippers have become that sort of destination team that free agents could target.

Although free agency seems like the Clippers' best bet at adding another rotation player, a trade is also a possibility. Eric Bledsoe represents the team's strongest and most likely trade chip, though the club has been reluctant to move him in the past. Perhaps if the Clips get the impression that Paul is a good bet to re-sign long-term, they would be more willing to shop Bledsoe, who figures to be the successor at the point if CP3 leaves L.A.

With two star players entering contract years, the Clippers will be faced with a number of challenging decisions within the next year or so. Those decisions will begin this summer, which means Los Angeles will have to move quickly to find a general manager capable of making the right moves. The Clips are in no danger yet of jeopardizing the long-term futures of Paul or Griffin in L.A., but the next few months will be crucial for a franchise that enjoyed its most successful season in 2011/12 and has no desire to backslide into mediocrity.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Celtics

June 4th, 2012 at 3:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Paul Pierce ($16,790,345)
Rajon Rondo ($11,000,000)
Avery Bradley ($1,630,800)
JaJuan Johnson ($1,120,440)

Options

Brandon Bass ($4,250,000, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Sean Williams ($915,852)
E'Twaun Moore ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Kevin Garnett ($22,309,396)
Ray Allen ($15,000,000)
Keyon Dooling ($2,920,320)
Greg Stiemsma ($1,054,389 – QO)
Marquis Daniels ($854,389)
Ryan Hollins ($854,389)
Sasha Pavlovic ($854,389)
Mickael Pietrus ($854,389)
(Jeff Green – $11,139,970)
(Nenad Krstic – $8,314,674)
(Roshown McLeod – $3,772,503)
(Carlos Arroyo – $854,389)
(Dana Barros – $854,389)
(P.J. Brown – $854,389)
(Mark Bryant – $854,389)
(Michael Finley – $854,389)
(Grant Long – $854,389)
(Stephon Marbury – $854,389)
(Shaquille O'Neal – $854,389)
(Michael Olowokandi – $854,389)
(Scot Pollard – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (21st overall)
1st Round (22nd overall)
2nd Round (51st overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $30,541,585
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $82,400,745
Total (not including draft picks): $112,942,330

Much was made this season of the Celtics' old Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen having one final run together before Boston started its rebuild in the summer. No trades were consummated at the deadline, but the Celtics reportedly discussed a Pierce deal with the Nets and nearly traded Allen to the Grizzlies.

GM Danny Ainge has never been shy about pulling the trigger on a deal he thinks will help the team, even if it won't be a popular move. And with Garnett and Allen facing free agency this summer, there's still a good chance Boston begins the 2012/13 season without the Big Three on its roster. However, the longer the Celtics' season continues, the more convinced I am that this might not be the end for Garnett and Allen in Boston after all.

Garnett, in particular, seems like a reasonable bet to re-sign with the Celtics this summer. He's said in the past that he'd like to retire a Celtic, and his performance this season showed he still has something left in the tank. Allen may be more likely to explore the open market, given all the teams interested in a shooting guard who could target him. But it wouldn't surprise me if both players signed short-term deals to remain in Boston.

Even if KG and Allen are back next season, the team has some flexibility to make roster upgrades around its veterans. The Celtics' amnesty clause will likely remain unused, since the club only has four players on guaranteed contracts for next year. Of those four, only Pierce and Rajon Rondo are owed significant money, and neither are amnesty candidates. But if we assume both Garnett ($21MM+) and Allen ($10MM) will receive paycuts on this year's salaries, the Celtics could have some cap space to work with even without taking advantage of the amnesty clause. In that case, a big man like Chris Kaman seems like a logical target.

If the Celtics do decide to bring back their veterans, it will be interesting to see how they use their pair of first-round draft picks, at No. 21 and 22 overall. The draft class is deep enough that Boston could select a pair of players there and hope that one or both turn into useful contributors. There are plenty of other options though. The team could try to package both picks to move up in the first round, or it could move one or both picks for a veteran player that could be added to the rotation immediately.

Earlier this season, it appeared the Celtics weren't quite a talented enough team to compete in the East with the current roster, but a second-half surge and a deep playoff run have proven that isn't the case. With the Bulls expected to be short-handed again next season due to Derrick Rose's ACL recovery, there's no reason a Celtics team that makes a modest upgrade or two shouldn't contend in the East again.

While it's possible Ainge decides to blow up the roster this summer, it wouldn't surprise me if he puts off major roster changes for at least another year. If Garnett and Allen are willing to sign one- or two-year deals, the Celtics would once again have the opportunity to claim a huge chunk of cap space when those new contracts expired. Ainge is anything but predictable, so there's no guarantee that's the direction he'll choose, but based on how they've played this season, the Celtics may not want to break up the old Big Three quite yet.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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