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Offseason Outlook: Denver Nuggets

June 1st, 2012 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

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Offseason Outlook: Orlando Magic

May 31st, 2012 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

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Offseason Outlook: Utah Jazz

May 30th, 2012 at 3:48pm CST by Luke Adams

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia 76ers

May 28th, 2012 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options  

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (15th overall)
  • 2nd Round (45th overall)
  • 2nd Round (54th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including options): $55,956,647
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $28,442,508
  • Total (not including draft picks): $84,399,155

A team plagued by injuries in the early part of the season, the 76ers found themselves benefiting from injury woes when the postseason got underway. After upsetting a depleted Bulls team in round one, Philadelphia nearly knocked off a banged-up Celtics squad to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Ultimately though, the Sixers couldn't pull off another upset and now find themselves in familiar territory: Wondering what changes to make this offseason to get the team to the next level.

The roster figures to undergo more upheaval than usual this summer, as a number of the 76ers' key contributors are facing potential free agency. Philadelphia probably wouldn't mind if Elton Brand opted out of the final year of his contract, worth $18MM+. But players like Spencer Hawes and Lou Williams were affordable contributors that could hit the unrestricted market in a matter of weeks.

Fortunately for the Sixers, the amnesty clause is still at their disposal, and it figures to be used on Brand once he opts into the final year of his deal. Assuming Williams waives his early termination option to either explore the open market or negotiate a new long-term contract with the Sixers, the club's 2012/13 salary committments will be reduced to about $32MM, giving team president Rod Thorn and his staff plenty of flexibility to make improvements.

While that potential cap space will be crucial to the team's roster moves this summer, long-time small forward Andre Iguodala may prove even more central to the Sixers' plans. With two years remaining on his contract, Iguodala will be a coveted trade candidate for teams in need of a productive forward and an elite wing defender.

Finding a trade partner for Iguodala may be easier said than done, however, considering the Sixers will likely seek an All-Star in return. If Brand is gone, a trade for a power forward would make sense, and Pau Gasol and Al Jefferson could be targets, but I doubt a one-for-one deal would work in either instance. As the Sixers have found in recent years, Iguodala probably will never be the best player on a title contender, so it's hard to imagine him drawing that sort of player in a trade.

Still, even if the Sixers don't find a power forward they like in a trade involving Iguodala, there will be opportunities to upgrade the roster. Amnestying Brand and re-signing Williams to a modest raise should leave Philadelphia with over $15MM in cap space. That would give the team plenty of room to pursue a free agent power forward, such as Kris Humphries, Ersan Ilyasova, Carl Landry, or Antawn Jamison. Kevin Garnett will also be available, though perhaps he and the so-called "fairweather" fans in Philadelphia wouldn't be a fit.

Armed with the amnesty clause, trade chips, and a mid-first-round draft pick, the Sixers will have plenty of options this summer. In addition to the possibilities I've already mentioned, exploring trades for Evan Turner could be something the team considers. Whatever the Sixers decide, I expect we'll see plenty of differences between this year's team and next year's. And if Philadelphia amnesties Brand and can take advantage of its cap space and trade assets, the Sixers we see in the fall could be far better equipped to make a run in the Eastern playoffs a year from now, whether or not they're aided by opposing injuries.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks

May 28th, 2012 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options  

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (17th overall)
  • 2nd Round (55th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $45,852,902
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $47,733,361
  • Total (not including draft picks): $93,586,263

It may be a while before we see a title defense as unusual as the Mavericks' in 2011/12. The lockout started things off on the wrong foot, with Dirk Nowitzki showing up for the season unprepared and out of shape. And parting ways with players like Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea, who were integral to the 2011 championship team, was an ominous sign too. Predictably, Dallas didn't go anywhere in the postseason, eliminated by the Thunder in a first round sweep.

As the summer begins, the question facing the Mavericks is whether or not the team's increased cap flexibility will be worth breaking up the defending champs. Without long-term contracts for Chandler and Barea, the Mavs are in good position to avoid increased luxury tax penalties in the coming years. But are they well-positioned to make a splash this summer that will stop fans from asking "What if?"

A brief look at the Mavs' 2012/13 contract situation might be a little surprising — you'd think a team that was expected to be a player for both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard this offseason would have less guaranteed salary on its books than $45MM+. Of course, using the amnesty clause on Brendan Haywood will help create some room, and with Howard locked in for another year in Orlando, Williams is the Mavs' clear top priority now. But if they can't clear salary besides Haywood's, Dallas will barely have the space to make Williams a maximum offer.

With one marquee free agent to pursue rather than two, the need to create additional cap space isn't quite as pressing. However, I still expect Dallas to explore trades involving Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, and Rodrigue Beaubois, simply because I don't think the roster as constructed is strong enough to woo Williams to Dallas. If the Mavs can clear enough salary to bring in a third impact player to complement a Nowitzki/Williams duo, perhaps that piques the interest of the All-Star point guard.

If Williams turns down the Mavs, virtually every player on the open market becomes a possible target for Dallas, including their own free agents, like Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. Steve Nash, Goran Dragic, and Jeremy Lin are a few of the point guard alternatives to Williams, and shooters like Steve Novak and Ryan Anderson make some sense too. The Mavs may end up exploring the market at virtually every position, considering Nowitzki is the only set-in-stone core piece.

In addition to having cap space and the amnesty clause at their disposal, the Mavs kept their top-2o-protected first-round pick this season when it landed at #17. In a draft that's expected to be a deep one, that pick has some value as a trade chip, though Dallas may be better off keeping it. The club could use an infusion of young talent, and there's a good chance an intriguing prospect slips that far, whether it's a two guard like Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters, or Terrence Ross, or a young center like Meyers Leonard or Fab Melo.

Like the Nets, the Mavericks appear to be heading into the offseason with a "Deron Williams or bust" mentality. Failing to land the hometown star would create a dilemma for Mark Cuban and the Mavs — do you pursue the next-best short-term alternatives to give Dirk a chance to make another title run, or do you regroup entirely and try to stock up on young talent? I tend to believe the Mavs will lean toward the former option, but I don't see an easy way of doing it, which should make it an interesting summer in Dallas.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Knicks

May 25th, 2012 at 11:33am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (48th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $59,392,331
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $12,035,674
  • Total (not including draft picks): $71,428,005
The challenge facing the Knicks this offseason has been well-documented by now. I even examined it already myself. But let's recap the highlights:
  • The significant amount of long-term money committed to Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler means the Knicks are already over the cap with only five players under contract.
  • The Knicks have a number of free agents they'd like to retain, including Jeremy Lin, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith, and Steve Novak.
  • The Knicks hold Fields' Early Bird rights, but assuming the players' union doesn't win its appeal, New York will only have Non-Bird rights on Lin, Smith, and Novak.
  • In that case, the Knicks would almost certainly have to use some or all of their mid-level exception to match offers for Lin. If they use more than $3MM of the MLE, their 2012/13 payroll will essentially be hard-capped at $74MM, the tax "apron," since taxpaying teams aren't permitted to use more than a $3MM mid-level.

It's a fascinating predicament for the Knicks. If they match a big offer for Lin, bringing back Fields, Smith, or Novak becomes difficult, and signing an impact free agent would probably be a pipe dream. Letting Lin walk certainly seems to make the most sense from a basketball and cap perspective, but will the team want to risk fan backlash and lose the marketing opportunities that Linsanity created?

There are ways the Knicks could avoid letting the Lin decision affect their entire offseason, but none of them are particularly likely or appealing. Trading one or more of Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler would give the team some breathing room, but owner James Dolan seems unwilling to part with Carmelo. The Knicks would also likely be reluctant to move Chandler, who was last year's big signing and this season's Defensive Player of the Year. And while I'm sure the club would be very open to dealing Amare, the uninsurable $65MM+ remaining on his contract makes that virtually impossible.

If a trade isn't consummated, perhaps one or more of the Knicks' free agents would be willing to sign a discounted deal to make things easier on the club. But that's equally hard to imagine. Why would Lin, for instance, sign a minimum-salary contract when this summer represents his best – and perhaps only – chance at a huge payday?

Retooling this Knicks' roster will be tricky, but I think if Lin signs something close to a max offer sheet with another team, New York should let him go. Due to the Gilbert Arenas provision, matching such an offer would mean the Knicks would be on the hook for eight-digit salaries for Lin in the third and fourth years of the contract. In that scenario, the Knicks would have committed an incredible $75MM+ to Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler, and Lin for the 2014/15 season, long after more punitive luxury-tax penalties take effect. The Knicks have already sacrificied cap flexibility by inking three long-term, big-money deals. Adding a fourth big contract to the mix seems to be asking for trouble.

If the Knicks let Lin walk, the team could comfortably re-sign Landry Fields and have its full mid-level exception to use on another free agent. I expect top point guards like Steve Nash and Goran Dragic will get offers that exceed the $5MM mid-level, but it's not inconceivable that Nash, Dragic, or another player would be willing to accept a slightly discounted deal for a chance to play in New York.

The cap restrictions the Knicks are up against this summer are part of what makes building an NBA roster such a challenge. Whichever approach GM Glen Grunwald and his staff decide to take, I'll be very interested to see how the team's offseason plays out and what its roster looks like in the fall.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

May 24th, 2012 at 12:19pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (14th overall, pending lottery; 0.5% chance at first overall pick)
  • 1st Round (16th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $35,122,752
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $35,634,902
  • Total (not including draft picks): $70,757,654

Ever since Yao Ming saw his career derailed by injuries and Tracy McGrady's production fell off a cliff, the Rockets have been searching for their next star player. While guys like Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, and Luis Scola have turned into solid contributors and show flashes of brilliance, Houston has missed the postseason for three straight years, and is still lacking the sort of star that can take them to the next level.

The Rockets thought they'd landed that player in December when they agreed to a blockbuster deal that would have sent Pau Gasol to Houston. Of course, we all know how that turned out — commissioner David Stern nixed the deal on behalf of the Hornets, and GM Daryl Morey and the Rockets headed back to the drawing board. Now, Houston heads into the 2012 offseason once again searching for that star that will make the club a legit contender.

Morey and the Rockets have a couple factors working in their favor when it comes to potential roster moves. With only about $35MM committed in guaranteed salaries, the team will have some cap space to work with, even if it decides to retain one or more of its own free agents. The only real star on the open market is Deron Williams, and the Rockets don't seem to be on his wishlist, but that cap space could be an asset to put toward other free agents or trades.

The other factor working in Houston's favor? If Morey wants to make another run at Gasol, he couldn't ask for a better time to do it. The Spaniard's star has faded a little in Los Angeles over the last few months, and it's hard to imagine the Lakers' asking price being quite as high as it was in December. A package centered around Martin and Scola likely wouldn't interest the Lakers, but perhaps a third team could get involved to facilitate a deal.

The bad news for the Rockets if they intend to pursue Gasol is that the player the Lakers really want - Lowry – also saw his stock drop a little this year, after he missed most of the second half and underwent surgery for a sports hernia at season's end. The Rockets displayed an unwillingness to trade a healthy, productive Lowry for Gasol earlier in 2012, but perhaps the emergence of Goran Dragic would make Lowry slightly more expendable, assuming Houston brings back Dragic.

While they may still be searching for that one core piece to add to the roster, the Rockets have done a nice job adding complementary players. The team has a good deal of young, affordable talent, including Patrick Patterson, Chase Budinger, and Chandler Parsons, and is poised to add even more — Houston is expected to sign last year's draft pick Donatas Motiejunas, and the team holds the 14th and 16th picks in this year's draft. The 2012 class is deep enough that the prospects available for the Rockets might not be any less productive than players selected 10 spots earlier.

If the Rockets don't draft a center or acquire one via trade, I expect the position to be the team's top priority in free agency. There are a number of intriguing names on the market this summer, and while Houston may not aggressively pursue restricted free agents like JaVale McGee, Roy Hibbert, or Brook Lopez, an unrestricted player such as Chris Kaman could make a lot of sense for the Rockets.

Still, for the Rockets, the offseason all comes down to landing does that star player. Does Gasol still qualify? And if not, will Houston's cap space, draft picks, and trade candidates be enough to acquire someone who does? That'll be the task facing Morey this summer as he looks to upgrade the Rockets' roster from one that's a borderline playoff contender to one that can hang with the top teams in the West.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Phoenix Suns

May 23rd, 2012 at 9:41am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (13th overall, pending lottery; 0.6% chance at first overall pick)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $30,564,520
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $49,967,987
  • Total (not including draft picks): $80,532,507

Steve Nash may be 38 years old, but based on his 2011/12 performance, it seems he still has plenty left in the tank. The Suns didn't look like a Western Conference playoff team on paper, but with Nash leading the way, they hung around all year, eventually falling out of the postseason hunt in the season's last week. Now, the biggest question facing the team is whether or not to bring back its MVP on another multiyear contract.

There's been plenty of speculation on where Nash will land this summer, but it's impossible to predict the point guard's destination until we get a sense of his priorities. There have been rumblings that the Suns would offer Nash two years and $20MM, and I wouldn't be surprised if they up that offer to three years in a last-ditch attempt to retain him. Would Nash turn down all that money to play for a team like the Knicks or the Heat that could only offer him $3-5MM annually, albeit with a better chance at a title? The Suns' offseason plan hinges on that answer.

If Nash is willing to return, the team figures to use its remaining cap space to add a few pieces that can help the Suns contend right away. But Phoenix may be better off simply letting Nash walk and beginning the rebuilding process in earnest. The team has a number of assets at its disposal, including a huge chunk of cap space, the amnesty provision, and potential trade chip Marcin Gortat.

While it probably doesn't make sense to amnesty Josh Childress or Hakim Warrick unless the Suns have a specific alternate use in mind for that cap space, doing so could mean the team has nearly $30MM in cap room this summer. I doubt the Suns will convince Deron Williams to come to Phoenix, but all that room would allow them to bid on just about any other free agent they want, including their own. Plus, it would give the Suns the flexibility to take on another team's undesirable contract along with something of value — for instance, I imagine they'd be more than willing to take Lamar Odom from the Mavs if Dallas included a future draft pick.

Outside of taking on contracts, the Suns' options on the trade market aren't extensive, given Childress' and Warrick's lack of value. Channing Frye likely won't be a desirable trade target either, considering his salary, and I'd guess the Suns prefer to keep last year's first-rounder Markieff Morris. Of the players on guaranteed contracts, that leaves Jared Dudley and Gortat. If Nash leaves, it makes sense to explore trades involving those two veterans, since their value may never be higher — both are solid players, especially Gortat, but they're probably unlikely to repeat last year's production without Nash setting them up.

The Suns' offseason is hard to predict until we know whether or not Nash will be back. If he returns, it makes sense to bring back Grant Hill on a one-year deal, sign a couple other veterans, and make another run at the playoffs. But that's probably not the team's best chance at long-term success. If I were GM Lon Babby, I wouldn't be devastated if Nash signed elsewhere — it would make Aaron Brooks a larger free agent priority, make trades more likely, and mean cap space could be saved for future summers, as the team rebuilds through the draft. Either way, Babby and the Suns' staff have an interesting challenge ahead as they face the possibility of beginning the post-Nash era in Phoenix.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Bucks

May 18th, 2012 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (12th overall, pending lottery; 0.7% chance at first overall pick)
  • 2nd Round (42nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $45,781,925
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $22,840,095
  • Total (not including draft picks): $68,622,020

Trading big for small is something most NBA teams try to avoid, but it's exactly what the Bucks did at this year's trade deadline, moving the injured Andrew Bogut to Golden State in a blockbuster deal for Monta Ellis. With Bogut sidelined for the year with a broken ankle, Ellis gave Milwaukee a chance to immediately contend for a playoff spot in the East.

Of course, that postseason bid fell short, and now the Bucks head into the summer with Ellis and Brandon Jennings in their backcourt and an uninspiring group of big men remaining under contract. If the Bucks hope to earn a playoff berth next season, a frontcourt comprised of Drew Gooden, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ekpe Udoh, Larry Sanders, and Jon Brockman isn't going to get it done. While some of those players are useful contributors or have long-term potential, none of them should receive more than 25 minutes per game next year if Milwaukee wants to make some noise in the East.

While trading either Ellis or Jennings for a big man may look like one solution for the Bucks' frontcourt needs, it's not something I expect the team to consider this offseason. I imagine the club wants to see its two backcourt scorers play together for more than the few weeks they had at the end of this season before deciding whether the combination does or doesn't work. Perhaps by February 2013, one or both of those players will become trade candidates, but the Bucks will give them every chance to succeed before considering a move.

The Bucks' best bets for adding a big or two are free agency and the draft. Milwaukee would do well to re-sign its own free agent power forward, Ersan Ilyasova, but the 25-year-old is coming off a breakout season, having set career highs in PPG (13.0), RPG (8.8), FG% (.493), 3PT% (.455), PER (20.5), and a handful of other categories. As an unrestricted free agent, the runner-up for Most Improved Player of the Year figures to draw plenty of interest, and may ultimately decide to sign elsewhere.

In that case, the Bucks would still have a good chunk of cap space to throw at other free agents. On the unrestricted market alone, forwards and centers like Kris Humphries, Chris Kaman, Spencer Hawes, Joel Przybilla, Marcus Camby, Antawn Jamison, and others could attract interest from Milwaukee. None of those players would be out of the Bucks' price range, and many of them would be excellent fits.

Even if Milwaukee can't recruit a major free agent, a deep draft class should provide the club an opportunity to add another young player to its front-line. In his latest mock draft, Chad Ford of ESPN.com has Jared Sullinger falling to the Bucks, and while I'm not sure the Ohio State product slips that far, power forward is the draft's deepest position — a number of intriguing options should be available if Milwaukee picks at #12.

The Bucks shook up the foundation of their franchise when they sent a potential All-Star center to Golden State in March, and now they'll have to replace the production that Bogut and perhaps Ilyasova would have provided. It's too early to say whether pairing of Jennings and Ellis is the Bucks' best plan of action going forward, but I expect the team to do everything it can this summer to try to make it work, by bringing in the frontcourt talent necessary to help complement its two scoring guards.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

May 16th, 2012 at 1:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Nets' top-three-protected pick, pending lottery; 74.7% chance to acquire pick)
  • 1st Round (Pending lottery; 0.8% chance at first overall pick)
  • 2nd Round (40th overall)
  • 2nd Round (41st overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $29,693,381
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary (including unlikely options), Cap Holds: $40,283,757
  • Total (not including draft picks): $69,977,183

The Trail Blazers will be building from the ground up this offseason, both on and off the court. The team is currently in the midst of searching for its new general manager, who in turn will likely hire a new head coach shortly thereafter. And if that wasn't enough, the Blazers only have six players on guaranteed contracts for next year, including four guys making less than $2MM. Armed with plenty of cap space, the new GM will face an interesting challenge upon taking the job.

Although the Blazers have only about $26MM committed to their six guaranteed players, that doesn't mean the club will have $30MM+ in cap room at its disposal. Shawne Williams ($3.14MM) is a sure bet to opt into the final year of his contract. And even if the team renounces Jamal Crawford, J.J. Hickson, and all its other non-Nicolas Batum free agents, Batum's cap hold adds $5.39MM. If Portland holds steady in the lottery and picks sixth and 11th overall, that'll tack on another $4.33MM in rookie contracts. Throw in a few minimum-salary cap holds or rookies to fill out the roster, and the Blazers will have $40MM+ on their books before spending a single cent in free agency.

Still, with more than $17MM in cap room at their disposal, the Blazers are expected to be very active on the free agent market. A max or near-max offer to Deron Williams is a possibility, though I'd be very surprised if he landed in Portland. The Blazers could be strong contenders for any one of the second-tier of free agents though. With holes at point guard and center, the Blazers will probably at least kick the tires on players like Steve Nash, Goran Dragic, D.J. Augustin, Chris Kaman, Roy Hibbert, and Spencer Hawes.

One complication in the Blazers' pursuit of free agents is the status of their own restricted free agent, Nicolas Batum. Batum's agent recently indicated that he and his client won't wait around for Portland to use its cap space, but rather will sign the first lucrative offer sheet they receive. What does this mean for the Blazers? Well, if Batum signs an offer with another team worth $10MM annually, Portland has just three days to match the offer and retain the 23-year-old. And if the Blazers were to match the offer, Batum's cap hit would rise from $5.39MM to $10MM, reducing the Blazers' spending room from $17MM+ to under $13MM.

Even with that reduced cap flexibility, the Blazers should still be able to land a major free agent, perhaps one of the names I mentioned above. But if the team isn't in love with a particular free agent, or has concerns about recruiting players to Portland, the trade market is another option. Because they'll likely have a pair of lottery picks, the Blazers are in a great position to send one of them to a rebuilding team in exchange for a veteran contributor. The club could also take advantage of its cap space by taking on a veteran's salary in a trade. For instance, if the Blazers miss out on top free agent point guards like Williams and Nash, the Raptors would probably be all ears if Portland were to inquire on Jose Calderon and his $10MM+ salary.

The constant turnover in recent years suggests the Blazers' general manager job may not be a safe or desirable position, but the team's assets should certainly appeal to the new GM. Despite losing potential franchise cornerstones like Greg Oden and Brandon Roy to injuries, the Blazers have an All-Star to build around in LaMarcus Aldridge. With Batum expected to be retained, a pair of high draft picks in hand, and room under the cap to maneouever, the Blazers are in pretty good position to return to the postseason in the not-so-distant future.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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