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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

May 13th, 2024 at 3:34pm CST by Luke Adams

With Cade Cunningham healthy and set to return after being limited to 12 games in 2022/23 due to a leg injury, the Pistons entered last fall with aspirations of being in the play-in mix and perhaps even getting their young core some postseason experience.

That goal seemed sensible enough through the first three games of the season, which included a pair of wins and a one-point loss. It looked – to put it mildly – increasingly unrealistic as Detroit lost its next 28 games in a row and 35 of its next 36 in total. Suddenly, the organization’s goal was simply to avoid the embarrassment of posting the NBA’s worst record of all-time. The team avoided that fate, but its 11-32 finish following a 3-36 start was hardly cause for legitimate optimism entering the summer.

It has been over four years since the Pistons launched their rebuild in earnest and three years since they landed the No. 1 overall pick that they used to draft Cunningham. The process that general manager Troy Weaver repeatedly referred to as a “restoration” rather than a rebuild was supposed to bear more fruit by now.

The lack of forward progress in Detroit has already cost Weaver his role as head of basketball operations and could result in more significant changes to the Pistons’ roster this offseason, with players once considered long-term building blocks perhaps having their futures on the roster reconsidered.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan

The Pistons are in the market for a new head of basketball operations and until they officially make a hire, it’s hard to get a sense of exactly what direction their offseason will take. Assuming that new executive has the final say on basketball decisions, which is the expectation, the way he feels about specific players will go a long way toward determining the moves Detroit makes.

At this point though, it seems safe to assume that Cunningham isn’t going anywhere. The 22-year-old will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and looks like the Piston whose ceiling is the highest, so I’d expect the organization to make an effort to get him locked up for the long term. The only real question there is whether or not he gets the max.

As bad as the Pistons have been since Cunningham made his debut in 2021, he continues to trend in the right direction on an individual level, establishing new career highs in 2023/24 in categories like points (22.7) and assists (7.5) per game, along with field goal percentage (44.9%) and three-point percentage (35.5%). It would be nice if 2022/23 hadn’t been a lost season or if he’d been something a little closer to an All-Star level player this year, but I suspect he’s shown enough to warrant a maximum-salary investment — especially since Detroit’s cap for the years to come is pretty clear.

I’d expect Ausar Thompson, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, to remain part of the core for now too. His jump shot has a long way to go (he made just 21 of 113 three-pointers as a rookie), but he’s a terrific positional rebounder and has tremendous upside as a defender, so should develop into a valuable role player even if he never becomes a reliable threat from outside. If the three-point percentage increases, his ceiling as a player will increase along with it.

Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, the Pistons’ lottery picks in 2022, once looked like foundational pieces, but that’s not a certainty heading into the summer of 2024. There are questions about Ivey’s fit next to Cunningham and about Duren’s ability to grow into the kind of defensive anchor and rim protector Detroit would need him to be.

That’s not to say there’s not a place for them in the Pistons’ future, but it’s certainly more of an open question than it seemed to be a year or two ago, especially since the new head of basketball operations will have no particular attachment to those youngsters, having not drafted them himself. The same goes for Isaiah Stewart, who could become a trade chip on his new rookie scale extension if Detroit decides he’s not part of the long-term plan.

Of course, the Pistons will have the opportunity to add another young prospect to their core this June with the No. 5 overall pick in the draft. There has been some speculation that first-rounder could be used as a trade chip, but that will depend on which players come off the board in the top four and what kind of offers are on the table for the pick.

There’s not a ton of excitement about the top of this year’s draft class, but that means the drop-off from No. 1 to No. 5 might not be significant. The Pistons’ new president may want to put his stamp on the franchise right away by taking a swing on a potential cornerstone in that spot. A sharpshooter like Reed Sheppard, a play-making forward like Matas Buzelis, or a three-and-D forward like Zaccharie Risacher would be among the most intriguing options, assuming they’re still available.

The Pistons only have about $57MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2024/25, so even after accounting for cap holds for restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and the No. 5 pick, they could create upwards of $65MM+ in cap room. After using up that room, they’d be able to go over the cap to re-sign Fontecchio using his Early Bird rights, which I expect they’ll do. A three-point shooter with some size, Fontecchio made a strong positive impression down the stretch after being acquired from Utah and should be in line for a new deal worth at least $12-14MM per year.

Besides Fontecchio, two other notable Pistons are eligible for restricted free agency. However, I don’t expect either former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman or unlikely 50-point man Malachi Flynn to receive qualifying offers to make them RFAs. They simply haven’t shown enough during their first four seasons in the league to warrant it.

Now, it’s worth noting that Wiseman’s qualifying offer amount dropped by more than half, to about $7.7MM, when he failed to meet the starter criteria, so if the new head of basketball operations remains high on the big man, perhaps the Pistons will decide to take a shot on him for at least one more year. But I’d be surprised if Wiseman gets any sort of multiyear deal like the one Detroit gave Marvin Bagley III in a similar spot a couple years ago.

So what’s the plan for the rest of the cap room? Rumors in recent weeks have suggested that Tobias Harris, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, and Nic Claxton could be among the free agent targets near the top of Detroit’s board, with trade candidates like Brandon Ingram and Zach LaVine also worth keeping an eye on.

Of course, as we’ve mentioned a couple times already, the new president’s likes and dislikes could go a long way toward morphing that list into something new as the offseason progresses. Remember, Houston was viewed as a prime suitor for James Harden a year ago until the team hired a new head coach (Ime Udoka) who wasn’t all that interested in pursuing the former MVP.

The Rockets, who had the most cap space of any NBA team in 2023, ultimately ended up targeting a couple hard-nosed veterans – Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks – who were capable of making an impact on both ends of the floor and complementing Houston’s young core. The Rockets arguably overpaid both players to make sure they landed them.

With a ton of cap room and few long-term commitments on their books, the Pistons could afford to take a similar path this summer, throwing significant short-term money at their top targets and getting out from under those contracts before they’ll need to invest in second deals for most of their young players.

I expect the club to focus on wings who can shoot and big men who can play defense, so the free agents mentioned above all make sense. If they’re more interested in spreading their cap space across three or four players, then Gary Trent Jr., Royce O’Neale, Caleb Martin, Isaac Okoro, and Isaiah Hartenstein are a few others who might be fits.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Note: Metu’s and Umude’s salaries would remain non-guaranteed if their options are exercised.

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Pistons, Rhoden’s qualifying offer would be worth the minimum salary for a player worth two years of NBA experience (projected to be $2,093,637). It will include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($8,269,440)
  • No. 53 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $8,269,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Cade Cunningham (rookie scale)
  • Evan Fournier (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Quentin Grimes (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Pistons project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce three trade exceptions – worth $10,489,600, $1,386,800, and $800,926 – in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

June 21st, 2023 at 8:01am CST by Luke Adams

After winning at least one playoff series for three consecutive years from 2019-21, the Nuggets were eliminated in the first round of the 2022 postseason in just five games. They subsequently opened the 2022 offseason by losing their longtime president of basketball operations, Tim Connelly, to the division-rival Timberwolves.

While it may have looked from the outside like the Nuggets were facing an identity crisis, there was no panic within the organization. Connelly’s top lieutenant, Calvin Booth, was promoted to run the front office, and he opted not to make any drastic changes to the roster, betting that a few tweaks – along with the anticipated returns of injured starters Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. – would be enough to make Denver a legitimate title threat.

After signing Bruce Brown in free agency and trading guards Monte Morris and Will Barton to Washington for a package headlined by three-and-D wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets got off to a strong start last fall and maintained their pace for months, holding the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference from December 20 until the end of the regular season.

Denver faltered just once, losing 10 of its last 17 games entering the postseason, which raised some concerns about whether the team was prepared to make a deep playoff run. But the Nuggets quickly silenced any doubts, winning 16 of their next 20 games and capping a dream season with the first championship in franchise history.

While Booth won’t be able to rest on his laurels this summer following an unimpeachable first year on the job, he’s the only NBA general manager who will be entering the offseason looking to keep a championship team intact rather than seeking ways to upgrade a roster that fell short of that goal.

The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan

The same group of players that wins a championship one year is hardly guaranteed to win another the following season, but it still has to be encouraging for Booth and the front office that nearly the entire core of the 2022/23 Nuggets remains under contract for next season.

Nikola Jokic, Murray, Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Caldwell-Pope, each of whom started all 20 playoff games for Denver and averaged at least 32 minutes apiece, have guaranteed contracts for next season, with all but Caldwell-Pope under team control for multiple years (KCP has a 2024/25 player option).

With that foundation in place – and up-and-coming role players like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson locked up for several more seasons – the Nuggets can focus this summer on their supporting cast, starting with Brown, a jack-of-all-trades who was the club’s most-used reserve in the postseason.

Because Denver got such a bargain on Brown’s contract a year ago, the team will be limited in its ability to give him a raise for 2023/24, assuming the veteran guard declines his $6.8MM player option. The Nuggets will hold his Non-Bird rights, allowing them to offer up to 120% of his $6.48MM salary from this past season.

Brown will almost certainly get offers that feature a starting salary higher than the $7.77MM Denver can give him, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to sign elsewhere. The 26-year-old spoke in the wake of the Nuggets’ title win about his desire to remain with the team, suggesting that “money isn’t everything.”

And as we noted at the time, there’s a precedent for a player with Non-Bird rights accepting a below-market deal from a team he won a title with, then getting a raise on a long-term deal the following year when he has Early Bird rights. Bobby Portis took this route with the Bucks after the team’s 2021 championship.

If the Nuggets bring back Brown on a Non-Bird contract, it would push the team’s guaranteed salaries close to $171MM for 10 players, which would – barring a cost-cutting move – make it nearly impossible to use the full taxpayer mid-level exception ($5MM) and stay below the projected second tax apron ($179.5MM), since they’ll need to carry at least 14 players.

If Brown departs in free agency, that taxpayer MLE would be in play. It wouldn’t necessarily need to be used on someone who will assume Brown’s exact role, since the Nuggets are reportedly confident in Braun’s and Watson’s ability to play more backcourt minutes next season. If they have the MLE available, the Nuggets could look to add depth at virtually any position, including backup center.

Among the team’s unrestricted free agents, Thomas Bryant and Reggie Jackson didn’t play major roles after being acquired in February and may not be great bets to return. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team makes an effort to bring back Jeff Green and/or Ish Smith.

Green, in particular, was part of the postseason rotation and has spoken about wanting to finish his career in Denver. And it seems safe to assume Smith would rather stick with the defending champions than join the 14th NBA team of his career if the Nuggets are willing to bring him back.

The Nuggets, having already agreed to a trade with the Thunder earlier this month, will also control a pair of second-round picks at No. 37 and No. 40, which should be used to help fill out next season’s roster in some form or another.

There have been rumblings that Denver is looking into the possibility of trading into the first round, using some combination of this year’s second-rounders and a future first-rounder. If that doesn’t happen, it’s not the end of the world — there will still be solid prospects available in the 37-40 range, and those players would cost less toward the Nuggets’ 2023/24 tax bill than minimum-salary veterans or a first-round rookie would.

With few changes expected to Denver’s roster this summer, the club’s most significant offseason move could be signing Murray to an extension, since he’ll be eligible for a new deal as of July 24. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the two sides decide to put that off for another year though. Murray remains under contract for two more seasons and could qualify for a super-max extension if he makes an All-NBA team in either of those two years.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jamal Murray (veteran)
  • Zeke Nnaji (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $9,125,000
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $3,475,000
    • Note: Expires on June 23.
  • Trade exception: $2,201,520
  • Trade exception: $1,902,133
  • Trade exception: $370,297
    • Note: Expires on July 6.

Note: The Nuggets would lose the taxpayer mid-level exception if their team salary is above the second tax apron; they would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

June 18th, 2023 at 2:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Twelve games into the 2022/23 NBA season, the Lakers sat at the very bottom of the league’s standings. Despite relatively good health from Anthony Davis and LeBron James, as well as Russell Westbrook‘s willingness to buy into new head coach Darvin Ham‘s plan to bring him off the bench, L.A. got off to a dismal 2-10 start.

With the Lakers’ season seemingly headed for disaster, speculation ran rampant. Would the team consider trading Davis? Would James – whose new contract extension made him ineligible to be dealt during the season – ask to be moved in the summer? Would the Lakers’ first-round pick, which the Pelicans controlled in a swap, be used to get Victor Wembanyama to New Orleans?

The Lakers didn’t panic though. They were able to tread water long enough to remain in the playoff hunt at the trade deadline, at which point they exhibited their belief in the Davis/James foundation by making a series of trades to complement that core despite being several games below .500. Westbrook’s $47MM+ expiring contract, a lightly protected 2027 first-round pick, and a handful of second-rounders helped the team land D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and Mohamed Bamba.

The impact was immediate. Despite missing James for most of March due to a foot injury, the Lakers went 18-8 down the stretch, won their first and only play-in game, then knocked off the No. 2 Grizzlies and defending-champion Warriors to make the Western Conference Finals. They didn’t win a game against the eventual champion Nuggets in that series, but they played Denver as tough as any playoff opponent did, losing those four contests by a total of just 24 points.

With LeBron turning 39 years old in December, there’s still a sense of urgency in Los Angeles to make the most of a title window that could close in a year or two, but the Lakers will at least enter the 2023 offseason having alleviated some of the pressure that led to that Davis- and James-related trade speculation last fall.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan

When the Lakers acquired Westbrook in 2021, the thinking was that a third star could help ease the burden on Davis and James, take on a greater role if one of those players missed time due to an injury, and perhaps even become AD’s co-star if LeBron decided to call it a career within the next few seasons.

Westbrook wasn’t the right fit, but the logic was sound enough. Two years later, after seeing how poorly the Westbrook experiment went and how well the team played with complementary pieces surrounding their two remaining stars, the Lakers will have a decision to make: Do they try to run it back and stick with the two-star model that worked so well in recent months, or will they look to construct another Big Three, knowing that LeBron’s days in Los Angeles – and in the NBA – could be numbered?

Going the cap-room route in order to create space to sign a star free agent probably isn’t a route the team will take. If the Lakers were to guarantee Vanderbilt’s modest salary for 2023/24, issue a qualifying offer to restricted free agent Austin Reaves, and divest themselves of the rest of their non-guaranteed contracts (including declining options and renouncing free agent cap holds), they could create nearly $28MM in cap room. And they could even push that number a little higher by trading their No. 17 overall pick and/or Max Christie.

But that still wouldn’t be enough to offer anything close to a maximum-salary contract to a free agent like Kyrie Irving, and it would mean sacrificing some depth — notably, Hachimura couldn’t be re-signed and the mid-level exception couldn’t be used in that scenario. It makes more sense for the Lakers to operate over the cap, retaining the cap holds of Hachimura (another RFA) and Russell, while perhaps also negotiating with other unrestricted free agents like Dennis Schröder.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the Lakers simply have to bring back the same group. Trading for an impact player who is already under contract isn’t out of the question. If L.A. believes it has a chance to acquire that sort of player, the club could guarantee Bamba’s $10.3MM salary for next season and pick up Beasley’s $16.5MM team option and use those expiring contracts for matching purposes. This year’s No. 17 pick and the Lakers’ 2029 first-rounder could also be dealt.

There are roadblocks in play there though. Star guards like Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard have massive contracts that would require more than just the combined salaries of Beasley and Bamba to match — a sign-and-trade of one of the Lakers’ own free agents would probably be necessary, which would complicate matters. Based on recent reports, L.A. doesn’t appear to be seriously in the mix for Beal anyway, and we don’t know yet whether Lillard will even seek a trade out of Portland.

The Bulls are said to be gauging Zach LaVine‘s value on the trade market, but he’s a subpar defender who is on a massive contract and has no history of postseason success. As good a scorer and shooter as LaVine is, the Lakers may not be eager to upend their roster to land him.

A sign-and-trade for a free agent like Irving or Fred VanVleet wouldn’t be impossible, but it would be challenging, both for salary-matching reasons and because a sign-and-trade acquisition would hard-cap the Lakers at the first tax apron. If they hope to bring back Reaves and Hachimura on market-value deals and sign-and-trade for a top point guard, the Lakers would probably need Irving or VanVleet to accept a team-friendly offer to make it work. Even then, there’s no guarantee Dallas or Toronto would play ball.

The simplest – and seemingly most likely – path for the team this offseason would be to play it relatively safe: Negotiate new long-term contracts with Reaves and Hachimura or match any offer sheets they sign, even if it’s a back-loaded Arenas Provision offer for Reaves; re-sign Russell to a shorter-term deal; use the mid-level exception to re-sign Schröder (who will only have Non-Bird rights) and/or add another player; and keep an eye out for supplemental pieces in free agency who could be willing to sign minimum-salary contracts to play in L.A. for a contender (Chris Paul, maybe?).

The No. 17 pick is also an asset that shouldn’t be overlooked. This Lakers’ front office has a solid history of identifying young talent, having drafted well and found some undrafted gems like Reaves and Alex Caruso. If that pick is retained, it could be used to acquire a young, affordable player who might be able to play regular minutes as a rookie. As a trade chip, it could be packaged with a player on an expiring contract like Bamba or Beasley to bring in a useful veteran on a multiyear deal.

If the Lakers don’t find a trade they like by June 29 involving Beasley or Bamba, I’d probably let Bamba go, but I’d seriously consider picking up Beasley’s option. While Beasley’s price tag is a little higher than you’d hope, his outside shooting is a valuable skill that would be hard to replace on the cheap, whereas the Lakers could probably find a productive enough part-time center for the veteran’s minimum, like they did during the 2022 offseason when they signed Thomas Bryant.

It’s not an easy decision though, especially when factoring in how new contracts for Reaves, Hachimura, and Russell could affect the Lakers’ team salary. Even without Bamba’s salary on the books, there may not be enough room to bring Beasley back and use more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception. Turning down Beasley’s option and trying to re-sign him at a more cap-friendly rate may be prudent, since they’d hold his Bird rights.

As the Lakers showed this past year, a team doesn’t necessarily have to be fully formed out of the gates, given that the in-season trade market offers real opportunities for roster transformations. Rob Pelinka and the front office will certainly explore every avenue to significantly upgrade the rotation this summer in an effort to maximize the final season of LeBron’s 30s (for what it’s worth, I don’t buy that he’s a real threat to retire this summer, but a 2024 exit is conceivable).

However, the team will likely be reluctant to give up any of the important role players that keyed its spring success. If those players are re-signed or otherwise retained and no major additions are made, the Lakers would be in position to be a player again at the 2024 trade deadline if needed.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Mohamed Bamba ($10,300,000)
    • Note: Bamba’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,398,000)
    • Note: Vanderbilt’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Shaquille Harrison ($2,413,304)
  • Total: $17,111,304

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 17 overall pick ($3,640,200)
  • No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,640,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Malik Beasley (veteran)
  • Anthony Davis (veteran)
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Russell would only be eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Lakers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $2,700,000
  • Trade exception: $2,298,385
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090

Note: The Lakers would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Lakers go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 17th, 2023 at 3:59pm CST by Rory Maher

An injury-plagued 2022/23 regular season saw the Heat go 44-38, barely making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the East after winning their second play-in game. The rest of the postseason was an entirely different story, with Miami making one of the most remarkable runs in league history.

The Heat dispatched the NBA’s best regular season team, the Bucks, in the first round, defeated the No. 5 seed Knicks in the second round, and triumphed over the Celtics – who held the league’s second-best regular season record – in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The last series was a roller coaster, with Miami reeling off three straight wins – including the first two in Boston – only to see the Celtics rally to even the series at 3-3. The Heat emerged victorious in Game 7 in Boston, getting revenge after being eliminated by the Celtics in similar circumstances last year.

Miami’s Cinderella run ended in the NBA Finals, with the Heat falling to the champion Nuggets in five games. Miami’s defense was outstanding in the Finals, but the offense struggled, scoring 95 or fewer points in all four losses.

It was the second Finals appearance in the past four seasons since the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in 2019, and they came very close to a third last year. The club will be focused on winning a few more playoff games in ’23/24 in order to bring a fourth NBA championship to Miami.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

Making the NBA Finals is a very difficult thing to do, and it’s worth acknowledging the accomplishment, even though the Heat were obviously disappointed to fall a little short of their ultimate goal. Despite their success, there could be a significant amount of roster turnover this offseason, in large part due to finances.

Victor Oladipo, who unfortunately sustained another major knee injury in the first round against Milwaukee, is essentially a lock to exercise his $9.45MM player option. Miami is expected to guarantee Haywood Highsmith‘s $1.9MM salary, and the team controls the No. 18 pick in next week’s draft, which has a $3.46MM cap hold.

Assuming the Heat keep that pick — which is far from certain — they would have about $176.6MM committed to 10 players. The luxury tax line is projected to be $162MM, with the new restrictive second tax apron set for $17.5MM above the tax line, or $179.5MM.

That $176.6MM figure does not include any of the team’s free agents, including some key rotation members. The Heat will have Bird rights on Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, who started the entire playoffs. A trio of big men — Kevin Love, Cody Zeller and Omer Yurtseven — make up the other three free agents on standard contracts (Yurtseven will be restricted if given a qualifying offer).

Strus and Vincent are expected to command significant raises on their minimum-salary contracts. The Heat would be facing a major luxury tax bill if they re-signed both players to eight-figure deals. Oladipo is an obvious trade candidate if they’re looking to shed money, as he could miss most or all of next season with the torn patellar tendon.

Butler will be 34 years old in September. As such, the Heat are firmly in win-now mode, and are always on the lookout for star talent — it’s only natural that recent reports have indicated that will continue.

The Heat owe a lottery-protected 2025 first-round pick to Oklahoma City, which complicates, to some extent, their ability to move additional first-rounders. Still, they could include up to three first-round selections – including this year’s No. 18 pick – in a trade offer for a star this summer.

Part of the reason why people around the league expect there to be quite a bit of star player movement this offseason is because the more punitive aspects of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will be phased in over the next couple seasons. For projected taxpayers like the Heat, that means there’s an opportunity to potentially land a star before those changes fully kick in.

NBA insiders expect Wizards guard Bradley Beal, a three-time All-Star, to be traded at some point this offseason, with the Heat viewed as a natural landing spot. They have the types of salaries (two of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson) to match Beal’s huge contract — he’s owed nearly $208MM over the next four seasons, including $46.7MM in ’23/24.

Lowry and Robinson were previously viewed as having negative trade value due to their contracts, but they both played key roles in helping the Heat advance to the Finals. Lowry’s $29.7MM deal expires after next season, while Robinson is still owed $47.5MM through ’25/26 (the final year is partially guaranteed).

Herro, who missed all but one half of the playoffs after breaking a couple of fingers in his right hand, is owed $120MM over the next four seasons after signing a rookie scale extension prior to ’22/23. Caleb Martin is another player worth watching, as “a lot of teams have interest” in his 3-and-D skill set and team-friendly contract — he’s owed $13.9MM over the next two seasons.

However, while he is a very skilled scorer, Beal hasn’t played solid defense for multiple years and has been plagued by injuries of late, appearing in just 90 of a possible 172 games over the past two seasons. Of course, the biggest impediment to acquiring him is his full no-trade clause, which would make it extremely difficult to move him in the future if the Heat were to acquire him.

While I don’t love the fit from Miami’s perspective, reporting on Saturday indicated the team was engaged in serious talks to acquire Beal from Washington. Even if the Heat could land him without giving up any draft capital, which seems unlikely, I would have viewed him as more of a fallback option than a top priority. There’s a real scenario in which they’d need to keep their draft picks just to have a chance of moving him down the line if things went south.

Zach LaVine could hold more appeal, as Chicago is reportedly gauging his trade value. But the Bulls would also be seeking more in return for him than the Wizards would for Beal.

Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard is three years older than Beal (Lillard will be 33 in July; Beal turns 30 in a couple weeks) and nearly five years older than LaVine (28), but he’s also in a different class as a player. The seven-time All-NBA member (vs. one for Beal and zero for LaVine) averaged a career-high 32.2 PPG in ’22/23 along with elite efficiency, posting a Stephen Curry-esque 64.5% true shooting percentage.

None of the three are great defenders, but Lillard is by far the best ball-handler and passer, as well as the most dynamic offensive player and shot-creator. His seemingly unlimited shooting range warps defenses, and he exploits that by utilizing his underrated ability to drive and draw fouls — he averaged a career-best 9.6 free throw attempts in ’22/23 and converted 91.4% at the charity stripe. Miami ranked just 25th in offense during the regular season, so they do need help on that end despite their impressive playoff run.

Still, even though Lillard recently listed the Heat as a team he would want to join if he ever asked for a trade, there’s no indication that will happen anytime soon, and I’m skeptical they’d have enough assets to deal for him unless he explicitly says he only wants to join Miami. He has also dealt with his own injuries the past couple years, and will make even more money than Beal over the next four seasons. Obviously, acquiring him would be a risk, since he’ll be 36 at the end of the contract.

I don’t see Bam Adebayo going anywhere, even if a major star unexpectedly submits a trade request — perhaps someone like Joel Embiid, for example. Adebayo is too important to the team’s culture, and he won’t turn 26 until next month. He’ll also be eligible for a lucrative extension this offseason, but financially it makes more sense for him to wait on that decision. If he makes an All-NBA team or wins Defensive Player of the Year in ’23/24, he’ll meet the performance criteria for a super-max extension, which requires players to have at least seven years of experience (Adebayo just completed his sixth season).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Haywood Highsmith ($1,902,137)
    • Note: Highsmith’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 5.
  • Total: $1,902,137

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 18 overall pick ($3,458,400)
  • Total: $3,458,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Bam Adebayo (veteran)
  • Kyle Lowry (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,700,000

Note: If the Heat’s team salary exceeds the second tax apron, they would lose access to any form of the mid-level exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

June 12th, 2023 at 7:47am CST by Rory Maher

After coming within two games of winning their 18th championship in 2021/22 under first-year head coach Ime Udoka, the Celtics had both a promising and strange offseason last year.

On the plus side, they traded for guard Malcolm Brogdon, who went on to win Sixth Man of the Year, and signed veteran forward Danilo Gallinari. Unfortunately, Gallinari tore his ACL while playing with the Italian national team last summer, and then Udoka was suspended for the ’22/23 season last September for violating “organizational guidelines” after a consensual affair with a female staffer.

Despite the dramatic circumstances that unexpectedly thrust Joe Mazzulla into the lead coaching role, Boston’s on-court results actually improved during the regular season. The team won six more games en route to a 57-25 record, the second-best mark in the NBA.

The Celtics had all the hallmarks of a championship-caliber club entering the playoffs, holding the league’s second-best offense and defense and the top overall net rating (plus-6.7).

Things quickly went awry in the postseason, however, with the Celtics unexpectedly dropping a couple of games in their first-round series against the Hawks before facing a 3-2 deficit in their second-round series against the Sixers. Boston pulled through by winning the final two games, advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, only to immediately lose three straight against the Heat and face the unprecedented task of trying to win four consecutive elimination games.

The Celtics staged an admirable comeback, winning three in a row to even the series, but got blown out at home in Game 7, with Jayson Tatum suffering an ankle injury on the game’s first play and Jaylen Brown struggling mightily, going 8-of-23 from the field along with eight turnovers.

The Celtics’ Offseason Plan

While they obviously fell short of their ultimate goal of winning the title, it’s still impressive that the Celtics have advanced to at least the Conference Finals in five of the past seven seasons. That illustrates how close they’ve been to a breakthrough for several years now while also showing how incredibly difficult it is to win four consecutive playoff series in order to emerge with the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Only a handful of teams have just one unrestricted free agent this summer, at least right now, and Boston is one of them. However, that doesn’t mean the Celtics don’t have some important decisions to make in the coming weeks.

Brown became eligible for a super-max extension after his first All-NBA berth in ’22/23, earning a spot on the Second Team. Based on what president of basketball operations Brad Stevens said after they were eliminated, it sounds like the Celtics fully intend to offer Brown the projected five-year, $290MM+ contract, which would be the largest in NBA history.

Tatum will also be extension-eligible, but he’ll definitely wait a year to maximize his earnings. The 25-year-old will be in position to sign his own super-max contract in 2024 no matter how the upcoming season goes, having met the performance criteria by making the All-NBA First Team in each of the past two seasons. He just needs one more year of NBA experience to officially become super-max eligible.

Would the Celtics be open to trading Brown if the right opportunity arose? Perhaps. But he’s only 26, and they’ve obviously had a lot of success with him and Tatum. It seems far more likely that the club will continue to try to complement its stars rather than split them up.

Brown’s possible extension won’t kick in until ’24/25, so the Celtics have one season of leeway until things start to get really complicated from a financial standpoint. That said, bringing back the same core group next season — if that’s even the goal — won’t be cheap.

Forward Grant Williams will be a restricted free agent, and while his season was a little uneven (in part due to injury), he’s due for a big raise on the $4.3MM he made this past season. His numbers (8.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG in 25.9 MPG) look modest on the surface, but he has turned himself into a very good shooter and he’s a versatile defender as well, so his skill set has a lot of value, especially in a free agent class without much star talent available.

Gallinari is a near-lock to exercise his $6.8MM player option coming off a major injury. That would leave the Celtics with a $158MM+ payroll with 10 players on guaranteed contracts. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM, and the highly-restrictive second tax apron is at $179.5MM.

I’m not sure how much money Williams will receive, but for the sake of argument let’s say he re-signs with Boston on a four-year, $60MM contract, with a $15MM annual cap hit. That would put the team’s payroll at $173MM+ with 11 players under contract.

In that scenario, the Celtics could (barely) stay below the second apron as long as their three other players are on minimum deals, but they wouldn’t be able to use the mid-level exception to sign a free agent. They’d also have to decline their $3.5MM team option on Mike Muscala, which isn’t a deal-breaker or anything since he wasn’t in the playoff rotation.

If they’re not confident in Gallinari’s ability to bounce back from a second torn ACL (he’ll be 35 in August), they could offload his salary by attaching some draft capital. That should enable them to use the taxpayer MLE, though at $5MM it’s fair to wonder how impactful that addition might be.

Payton Pritchard requested a trade before the February deadline and was disappointed to not be dealt, so he’s an obvious candidate to be moved if the Celtics can find something they like. They definitely won’t just salary dump him because he wants a bigger opportunity though. If Boston is hesitant to use draft assets to move off Gallinari, the team could package Pritchard with him instead.

In the playoffs, one thing that really stood out to me was Robert Williams was not the all-over-the-place defensive force that he was in ’21/22. That makes sense, since he was slow to recover from a second knee procedure in training camp and was limited to just 35 games, but the Celtics certainly missed his roaming weak-side play-making and ability to change shots. Hopefully he’ll regain his prior form, but it’s worth monitoring how he looks to start next season, as his game is very reliant on athleticism.

It may seem like I’m implying the Celtics will have a quiet offseason, and that could end up being the case. However, Stevens has consistently been active in looking for roster upgrades, and he won’t hesitate to shake things up if he thinks it will improve their odds of winning their first championship since 2008.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Luke Kornet ($2,413,304)
  • Justin Champagnie ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Champagnie would receive a partial guarantee of $50K if he’s not waived on or before August 1; that partial guarantee would increase to $350K if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the regular season.
  • Total: $4,341,200

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 35 overall (cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
  • Jaylen Brown (veteran)
  • Jayson Tatum (veteran)
  • Derrick White (veteran)
  • Payton Pritchard (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Tatum is ineligible to sign the super-max extension he has qualified for until 2024.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,160,955

Note: The Celtics would lose the taxpayer mid-level exception if their team salary is above the second tax apron; they would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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Hoops Rumors’ 2023 NBA Offseason Previews By Team

June 10th, 2023 at 11:29am CST by Luke Adams

In advance of the NBA’s 2023 draft and free agent period, Hoops Rumors is previewing the coming offseason for all 30 teams, looking at their salary cap situations and the roster decisions they’ll have to make this summer

Our Offseason Preview articles are linked below, sorted by conference and division. This list, which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu, will continue to be updated as we complete our previews for all 30 teams.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

June 9th, 2023 at 7:55am CST by Rory Maher

The Warriors entered the 2022/23 season as the defending champions, having won their fourth title in eight years last June. However, things quickly went off the rails before the season even started, with Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole during training camp. It was a long, bumpy ride the rest of the way.

A poor start which saw the the Warriors drop seven of their first 10 games – including five straight – certainly didn’t help, and every time they reeled off a winning streak, a losing streak quickly followed. The Warriors were within four games of .500 the entire campaign until the very end of the season, when they won their final two games to finish 44-38 and enter the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the West.

A tight seven-game series with the upstart Kings showed the resiliency of both squads, with Stephen Curry carrying Golden State to a first-round victory with a 50-point performance in Game 7. Untimely shooting slumps and shaky defense played a significant role in the Warriors’ semifinal loss to the Lakers — they dropped the series in six games.

With an incredibly accomplished but aging core, the Warriors face perhaps the most critical offseason in team history and certainly the most important during the Curry-Green-Klay Thompson era. Shoring up the team’s depth and defense, which dropped from second to 14th over the past two seasons, should be a priority.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan

It’s not hyperbole to say that no other team in the league will be more affected by the punitive aspects of the new CBA than the Warriors, who have been one of the league’s biggest spenders for years. As a repeat taxpayer, they could be facing a $500MM+ payroll (salaries and tax combined) in ’23/24 if their current roster remains intact.

Bob Myers stepping down as president of basketball operations was a really big deal. The decision could very well have a downstream effect on the other key figures within the organization. He had great relationships Curry, Thompson, Green and head coach Steve Kerr, and was known as one of the best communicators in the sport.

Green has a $27.6MM player option, which he could decline to enter free agency. Thompson is extension-eligible and entering the final year of his contract. Kerr is entering the final year of his deal as well, with a recent report indicating that he could be looking for a big pay raise after Detroit’s Monty Williams became the highest-paid coach in the league.

Although various reports indicated that Mike Dunleavy Jr. might be Myers’ eventual successor, owner Joe Lacob stated he’s not ready to name a replacement. That leaves the front office in a tenuous position at an extremely important time.

In addition to Green, guard Donte DiVincenzo, who was signed for part of the taxpayer mid-level exception last summer, has a $4.7MM player option of his own. Golden State currently controls the No. 19 pick in the upcoming draft.

If Green and DiVincenzo exercise their options (which is far from a lock — I think DiVincenzo in particular is likely to decline it in search of a raise) and the Warriors keep the pick, they’d be looking at a $213MM+ payroll with 13 players on guaranteed contracts. The luxury tax line is projected to be $162MM, and the highly-restrictive second tax apron kicks in at $179.5MM.

If they stay above the second apron, our current understanding is the Warriors would lose access to the taxpayer MLE, and there are several more roster-building restrictions beyond just that. Most of those changes won’t be implemented immediately, but they’ll likely all be in effect by the 2024/25 season.

It’s essentially a pseudo-hard cap, which will make life difficult for the Warriors’ front office. That said, even though the payroll is likely to be massive no matter what happens with Green, the team does have some desirable assets.

For example, Kevon Looney is on an extremely team-friendly contract. But he’s also been with the Warriors his entire career, seems to get along well with both the old guard and the young players, and having value contracts is absolutely essential when you have two of the highest-paid players in the league (Curry will have the league’s largest cap hit in ’23/24; Thompson will be 12th).

Andrew Wiggins is on a relatively team-friendly deal as well, and he would have a long list of suitors if the Warriors made him available. But as with Looney, it would be hard to replace what Wiggins provides, as he was arguably the team’s second-best player during the playoff run in 2022.

Curry definitely isn’t going anywhere, and I’d be surprised if the Warriors entertain trading Thompson. If I were running the team though, I would seriously consider it. His overall numbers in ’22/23 look pretty similar to his career averages, but the major leg injuries he suffered (a torn ACL and a torn Achilles) that caused him to miss two seasons have sapped some of his athleticism, and he isn’t nearly the defender he once was. Still, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

I doubt Gary Payton II will be on the move so soon after the Warriors traded former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman to reacquire him in February. That leaves the team’s young players.

Poole’s up-and-down season in many ways was reflective of the Warriors’ results as a whole. His relationship with Green — which was reportedly quite good before the punch — definitely seemed strained throughout ’22/23, and it’s hard to envision that changing. I’m not sure how rival teams would view his contract extension. On one hand, he still showed flashes of promise, and he helped keep the offense afloat when Curry missed extended time with injuries. On the other, Poole’s careless turnovers and porous defense can be quite frustrating.

I’m fairly certain that former lottery picks Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody would have positive trade value, despite their own inconsistent seasons. They’re only 20 and 21 years old, entering their third seasons, and make less than $10MM combined in ’23/24. Moody feels a little more likely to stick around after a solid playoff run that saw Kuminga glued to the bench.

Packaging some combination of Poole, Kuminga and the No. 19 overall pick could be an option. But cost-controlled assets like Kuminga and the first-rounder are also really important. If they keep the pick, I wonder if the Warriors will draft a more experienced prospect after going for younger, less NBA-ready players in recent years.

None of the team’s impending free agents — including JaMychal Green and Anthony Lamb — are locks to return. Longtime veteran Andre Iguodala has already said he intends to retire.

Despite a disappointing season, I still think Golden State’s championship window is open as long as Curry keeps playing at his current level and Green is spearheading the defense. Curry is 35 now and has missed a lot of games over the past handful of seasons, which is troublesome. But he’s still capable of being the best player on the court in any game in which he appears, and the Warriors have shown tremendous resiliency over the past decade. It will be fascinating to see how their offseason unfolds.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Note: The cap hold for Mannion remains on the Warriors’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. The team can make him a restricted free agent again by extending another qualifying offer.

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall ($3,302,640)
  • Total: $3,302,640

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $1,303,360

Note: The Warriors could gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,000,000) if they keep their team salary below the second tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

June 4th, 2023 at 12:08pm CST by Luke Adams

After making a huge jump in the standings by going 41-31 in 2020/21, the Knicks brought back largely the same group in ’21/22, but regressed significantly, posting a 37-45 record.

Entering the 2022 offseason in search of a backcourt upgrade, the team was heavily rumored to be considering two big moves: clearing cap room to sign Jalen Brunson away from Dallas, and putting together a mega-package to trade to Utah for Donovan Mitchell.

Ultimately, only one of those two rumored plans came to fruition, with the Knicks sacrificing some draft equity in order to clear the necessary cap room to sign Brunson to a four-year, $104MM contract. Despite weeks of reports linking Mitchell to New York, the All-Star guard was eventually sent to Cleveland instead.

While we can’t say with certainty whether the Knicks’ decision not to meet the Jazz’s lofty asking price for Mitchell was the right call, we can confidently declare the signing of Brunson a success. Given the keys to the Knicks’ offense, Brunson had an incredible first season with his new team, setting new career highs in points (24.0) and assists (6.2) per game, as well as three-point percentage (41.6%).

Buoyed by Brunson’s performance, an All-NBA bounce-back season from forward Julius Randle, and strong contributions from their supporting cast, the Knicks enjoyed a big bounce-back year themselves, winning 47 games (their highest total in a decade) and making the second round of the playoffs.

This still isn’t a championship-caliber roster, but the foundation is more stable than it was two years ago following the Knicks’ previous playoff appearance. And after not going all-in for Mitchell, the club still has plenty of trade assets on hand to continue its search for another star.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan

All 15 of the players who finished the 2022/23 season with the Knicks are under contract – or at least have an option – for ’23/24, with none of them currently on track for unrestricted or restricted free agency. However, that doesn’t mean the front office can rest on its laurels this offseason.

For starters, Josh Hart is unlikely to exercise his $13MM player option, since he’ll have no problem matching – and likely exceeding – that salary on a new contract that covers multiple years. Turning down that option will make Hart an unrestricted free agent and there will be no shortage of teams with interest in the versatile wing.

As popular as Hart would be on the open market, reports have indicated there’s widespread pessimism among rival suitors about their ability to pry him away from New York. The Knicks gave up their first-round pick in February to acquire Hart, who immediately became a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau and seemed to love playing in the Big Apple alongside Brunson, his former college teammate.

Because Hart won’t be restricted, New York won’t technically control his free agency, but it would be a surprise if he doesn’t re-sign with the team, perhaps on a three- or four-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $15-18MM per season.

The Knicks hold team options on two guards, Derrick Rose ($15.6MM) and Miles McBride ($1.8MM). McBride is a good value on his minimum-salary deal and should have his option exercised, but Rose fell out of New York’s rotation last season and spent most of the season serving as a veteran mentor on the sidelines.

Unless there’s a scenario in which his salary is required in a trade for matching purposes, the Knicks will decline Rose’s option, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility that he’ll be back with the team on a minimum-salary contract. Thibodeau and the Knicks clearly value the former MVP’s influence in the locker room and on the bench, having opted to keep him on the roster all season rather than buying him out after the trade deadline. There’s a path for the relationship to continue unless Rose wants to seek more playing time elsewhere.

DaQuan Jeffries and Isaiah Roby have non-guaranteed minimum salaries for 2023/24 and may not be back, especially if the Knicks need to open up their roster spots for newcomers.

New York doesn’t control any 2023 draft picks, but the team should have the cap flexibility necessary to use the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception to go shopping for another rotation piece in free agency.

Any significant roster changes for the Knicks, however, would likely occur on the trade market. Evan Fournier‘s pseudo-expiring $18.9MM contract (he has a 2024/25 team option that won’t be exercised) makes an ideal salary-matching starting point for any package, though no Knick – with the possible exception of Brunson – is likely to be off the table.

New York is also armed with young talent like Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin, and has an excess of future first-round picks, including protected 2024 selections from Dallas, Detroit, and Washington, as well as the Bucks’ 2025 first-rounder (top-four protected). The pieces are there to put together a pretty compelling package for any star player that becomes available this summer.

The real question is whether the stars who might be available in the short term are ones the Knicks would be eager to consolidate their assets for.

There has been constant trade speculation about Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, who was once viewed as ideal fit for New York. But Lillard will turn 33 this year, is on a massive super-max contract, and doesn’t make as much sense as a Knicks target now that Brunson is in the picture.

Karl-Anthony Towns‘ name has come up frequently as a possible option, but even if the Timberwolves were willing to move him, would Towns would be the right star for the Knicks? The 27-year-old big man has made a few All-Star teams and is a talented scorer, but he’s not a great defender and has won just four total playoff games (across three appearances) since arriving in Minnesota in 2016.

The Raptors could be willing to listen on Pascal Siakam this summer, but the Knicks already have an All-NBA power forward in Randle, whose substantial role has made it tricky to find playing time for Toppin, a former lottery pick. Siakam is a great player, but he’s probably not a big enough upgrade on Randle to really move the needle for the Knicks — and if the team were to acquire him without moving Randle, it’s unclear that the two power forwards could thrive alongside one another.

There are potential trade targets who are capable of being difference-makers for the Knicks. Joel Embiid would be one. Jaylen Brown might be another. But players like that seem unlikely to be available this offseason (and if we’re looking at those two stars specifically, it’s worth noting that it might be a challenge to negotiate a deal with a division rival).

You can count on Leon Rose and the front office to keep a close eye on the trade market this offseason to see if any impact players who fit the current roster will shake loose. But if the right players aren’t available, the prudent move for the Knicks would be continue to exercise patience, jumping on opportunities to keep adding quality players at a good price when they come along, like they did with Brunson and Hart.

That approach may not be popular among fans and league observers eager to see the Knicks make a splash, but going all-in on the wrong player who would be harder to come back from than waiting a little longer to see if better opportunities emerge.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • Josh Hart ($12,960,000): Bird rights
    • Note: If Hart picks up his player option, his salary would remain non-guaranteed until June 25.
  • Total: $12,960,000

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • DaQuan Jeffries ($2,066,585)
  • Isaiah Roby ($2,066,585)
  • Jericho Sims ($1,327,896)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Sims would receive another $600K in guaranteed money if he’s not waived on or before July 16 and would have his salary fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 16.
  • Total: $5,461,066

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Evan Fournier (veteran)
  • Josh Hart (veteran)
  • Derrick Rose (veteran)
  • Immanuel Quickley (rookie scale)
  • Obi Toppin (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Hart would only be eligible if he picks up his player option; Rose would only be eligible if the Knicks pick up his option.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

  • None

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Knicks would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 2nd, 2023 at 3:56pm CST by Rory Maher

2022/23 was more or less the same old story for the Sixers. They had a strong regular season (54-28, the No. 3 seed in the East); Joel Embiid led the league in scoring for the second straight season en route to his first MVP award; and then he once again got injured in the first round of the playoffs, this time suffering a sprained LCL in his right knee.

Embiid only wound up missing two games with the injury thanks in part to a lengthy layoff between rounds, but he said it ordinarily would have kept him sidelined for four-to-six weeks as opposed to the two he actually missed. Still, former head coach Doc Rivers said Embiid “looked very close to normal” upon his return, with the big man later stating he “felt great.”

Even prior to the injury, Embiid was not playing up to his regular season standard, with his scoring, efficiency and assists all down while his turnovers went up. That continued in the team’s second-round ouster to the Celtics. Overall, he averaged 23.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.7 APG (3.9 TOV) and 2.8 BPG on .431/.179/.905 shooting in nine playoff games (37.3 MPG), compared to 33.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.2 APG (3.4 TOV), 1.0 SPG and 1.7 BPG on .548/.330/.857 shooting in 66 regular season contests (34.6 MPG).

Since 2017/18, the Sixers have the second-best regular season record in the league, going 300-173 over that six-year span for a .634 winning percentage (an average of 52 wins over an 82-game season). They made it to the playoffs each time, but have yet to advance past the second round. All of the other teams in the top five in regular season wins over the past six seasons — Milwaukee, Boston, Denver and Toronto — have at least advanced to the NBA Finals.

The goal going forward is pretty straightforward, yet anything but easy: Capitalize on Embiid’s remaining prime years and win the title. The Sixers enter the offseason with some big question marks, so it will be interesting to see how the next couple months play out.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan

Philadelphia already made a significant change this offseason, firing Rivers and replacing him with Nick Nurse, a former Atlantic Division rival with the Raptors. Nurse developed a reputation as a creative coach who was unafraid to experiment with a wide variety of strategies.

Forward Danuel House just exercised his $4.3MM player option for ’23/24, which was expected after his modest role this past season. His contract isn’t onerous by any means, and maybe Nurse will be able to get more out of him than Rivers did.

My expectation is that Montrezl Harrell will pick up his own $2.76MM player option and the Sixers will guarantee the $6.5MM non-guaranteed portion of De’Anthony Melton‘s team-friendly salary (he will make a total of $8MM). I also expect them to issue Paul Reed a $2.26MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent — the young big man has expressed a desire to remain with Philadelphia.

Those moves would give the Sixers nine players with guaranteed deals for a temporary cap charge of $126.5MM (it could go up or down depending on if they give Reed a raise or let him walk).

Of course, the biggest unknown surrounding the Sixers’ offseason is the status of James Harden, who reportedly plans to decline his $35.64MM player option in search of a long-term contract. As with Embiid, Harden’s playoff run was once again inconsistent. He carried Philadelphia with a couple of huge performances in victories against Boston (he was solid in the third win), but struggling mightily in the four losses, including Games 6 and 7.

If Harden declines the option, the Sixers will be left with a $46.9MM cap hold and will have his Bird rights, giving them the ability to go over the cap to re-sign him while offering more money than a rival team can. However, it remains to be seen if Philadelphia is actually willing to give him a huge contract.

Harden, who will turn 34 over the summer, has been repeatedly linked to his former club in Houston over the past several months, with several reporters suggesting it may be a leverage ploy in contract negotiations with Philadelphia. We’ll see what happens.

Harden is clearly past his MVP peak, but he still had a strong year, averaging 20-plus points per game for the 11th straight season while leading the league in assists (10.7) and posting a career-best assist-to-turnover ratio. Is he really worth a max (or close to it) contract at this stage? For one year, sure. A long-term deal, probably not.

The problem is, if Harden walks, the Sixers have no way to replace his ball-handling or play-making abilities. Tyrese Maxey, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension and will certainly be seeking a very lucrative deal of his own, is a terrific scorer, but making plays for others isn’t his forte at the moment.

Re-signing Harden to anything close to a max would push the Sixers into the luxury tax in ’23/24 and they still have several other free agents, including Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels and Shake Milton. What happens with Harden could have a direct impact on what the team decides to do with its remaining free agents. Either way, Philadelphia will likely try to avoid the punitive second tax apron, which kicks in at $17.5MM above the luxury tax line.

As far as trade chips, Tobias Harris is entering the final year of his $39.3MM contract, which will make him a bit more appealing than he had been in previous seasons. He’s a solid player who willingly adjusted his game after Harden arrived in Philadelphia, and the Sixers won’t want to just dump his salary, especially if Harden walks — they’ll need to make up for his lost production somehow.

I’m sure the Sixers would be happy to shed Furkan Korkmaz‘s $5.37MM expiring contract, and he’s worth keeping an eye on as a salary-matching piece. He requested a trade in February prior to the deadline, but they couldn’t find a suitable deal.

If the 76ers want to make a major win-now move, any offer would likely have to start with Maxey and Harris. I’m not sure how palatable that would be to the front office, but Maxey is the best asset the Sixers have aside from Embiid, and I don’t see the big man going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe that could change if they fail to advance past the second round again next season, but I’d be shocked if he asks out this summer.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • De’Anthony Melton ($6,500,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Melton’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 3.
  • Total: $6,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • Paul Reed ($2,261,266 qualifying offer / $2,261,266 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $2,261,266

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Tobias Harris (veteran)
  • Furkan Korkmaz (veteran)
  • Jalen McDaniels (veteran)
  • De’Anthony Melton (veteran)
  • Shake Milton (veteran)
  • Paul Reed (veteran)
  • Tyrese Maxey (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. McDaniels, Milton, and Reed are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Trade exception: $2,448,846

Note: The Sixers would lose access to the full mid-level exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Sixers go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 1st, 2023 at 7:58pm CST by Rory Maher

The Suns won between 19 and 24 games in the four seasons prior to hiring Monty Williams as head coach in 2019. They had missed the playoffs for nine straight seasons.

After going 26-39 to start the 2019/20 season, the Suns reeled off eight straight victories in the Orlando bubble, a positive sign of things to come. Instead of running back the same group, they decided to shake up the roster, trading for future Hall of Famer Chris Paul, a move that paid immediate dividends.

Phoenix had a remarkable turnaround in ’20/21, snapping its 10-year playoff drought by going 51-21 and making a surprise run to the NBA Finals, ultimately losing in six games to the Bucks. In ’21/22, the Suns held the NBA’s top record at 64-18, but had a meltdown in their second-round loss to Dallas, getting blown out at home in Game 7.

The Suns contemplated dealing for Kevin Durant last summer following that playoff ouster, but decided to stand pat, matching a maximum-salary offer sheet for former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. But Paul, who is now 38, got injured shortly after the ’22/23 season started and his play declined. Forward Cameron Johnson tore his meniscus as well. They seemed quite far away from making it back to the Finals again, sitting with a 30-26 record entering the trade deadline.

New owner Mat Ishbia pushed hard to go all-in for Durant once the superstar forward reissued his trade request in February. One report said president of basketball operations James Jones was reluctant to include Mikal Bridges in the deal, but ultimately relented.

Durant, 34, injured his ankle shortly after the move to Phoenix and the club didn’t have much time to integrate him into the lineup before the playoffs. Injuries to Ayton and Paul played a factor in another second-round exit, this time at the hands of the Nuggets, who were clearly the better team when Devin Booker wasn’t completely unstoppable.

The second consecutive playoff elimination blowout at home led to the Suns firing Williams, who had just won Coach of the Year in 2022. The Suns will also reportedly be exploring the trade markets for Ayton and Paul this summer in an effort to bring their first NBA championship trophy to Phoenix.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan

Hiring a new head coach is the first order of business, and three finalists reportedly remain: former Sixers coach Doc Rivers, former Lakers coach Frank Vogel, and Suns assistant Kevin Young, who is said to have the backing of several players, including Booker.

Trading away Bridges, Johnson, Jae Crowder (who sat out the season until he was dealt), four unprotected first-round picks and a 2028 pick swap for Durant means the Suns don’t have a ton of moveable assets. It will be difficult to improve the roster around Booker and Durant.

I have a difficult time envisioning a robust market for Ayton. When engaged, he’s a very talented player with soft touch around the rim who is a plus rebounder and defender. The problem is the caveat — when engaged. Far too often Ayton looked downright disinterested over the past couple seasons, even in the biggest moments. His lack of effort during the playoffs was glaring.

Maybe certain teams would view him as a bounce-back candidate, but even when he’s at his best, I’m not sure he’s worth a max contract. Despite an impressive physical profile, the 24-year-old has always been much more finesse than brawn on offense, rarely drawing fouls or effectively posting up smaller players like you’d expect.

While Ayton might hold some appeal, I have an even harder time seeing which team would be interested in paying Paul $30.8MM next season. The Suns don’t have any tradable first-round picks to dump his salary, either.

If they fully guarantee the salaries of Paul and Cameron Payne, the Suns will be over the projected $162MM luxury tax line with only six players under contract (Durant, Booker, Ayton and Landry Shamet are the others, for a total of $163.7MM).

I would be a little surprised if Phoenix didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Jock Landale in order to make him a restricted free agent. The QO is close to the minimum ($2.2MM), and his grit and toughness were on display in the playoffs against the Nuggets. The Australian center has spoken about wanting to stay with the Suns long term.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume Landale simply accepts his QO and he doesn’t get a raise or sign a long-term deal. That would leave the Suns with seven players under contract at $165.9MM. The entire rest of the roster is in flux, as they have eight potential free agents (nine including two-way guard Saben Lee).

The odds are extremely slim that the Suns will issue Darius Bazley a $6.2MM QO after he rarely played following a trade deadline salary dump. They could potentially try to bring him back on a minimum deal, but he’d become an unrestricted free agent and able to join any interested team in that scenario.

I don’t have a great sense of what the team might do with Ish Wainright‘s minimum-salary team option, and having Non-Bird rights on Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Terrence Ross and T.J. Warren limits what the Suns can offer any of those veterans, assuming there’s mutual interest in a reunion. I don’t expect Bismack Biyombo to get more than another minimum deal, whether it be from Phoenix or a different club.

The one player the Suns can pay and probably want to bring back is forward Torrey Craig, who had a solid season filling in as a starter for much of the season due to injuries. He averaged 7.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG and shot 39.5% from three while playing solid defense in 79 games (60 starts, 24.7 MPG). The 32-year-old made $5.1MM in the final year of his contract and I think he could get at least that much again on the open market.

Let’s say the Suns re-sign Craig to a three-year, $18MM deal, with a $6MM salary each season. That would put their payroll for ’23/24 at $171.9MM with eight players under contract. If they fill out the remainder of the standard roster (14 players instead of 15) with minimum-salary deals at a value of $2MM each, their team salary would be $183.9MM.

Starting July 1, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will take effect, and with it the introduction of a second tax apron. In the above scenario, the Suns would be nearly $22MM over the tax line; the second apron is at $17.5MM. It is very restrictive, though it isn’t clear how many of the changes would occur immediately, as some will reportedly be phased in over a few seasons.

They could dip under the second apron by salary-dumping Landry Shamet, who is owed $33MM over the next three seasons. That wouldn’t make them better in the short term though, and the goal is to win right now while Durant is still playing at a very high level and Booker is in his prime.

There is a highly unlikely — but not impossible — scenario in which the Suns trade Ayton to a team with cap room, shed Paul’s salary (maybe with a pick swap or two and some second-rounders?), and operate as a cap room team themselves. If they renounced all their free agent cap holds except Landale, they could have about $27MM to spend on external free agents.

That seems like a pretty drastic move given the team’s desire to contend, but it could still technically be an option if the Suns are set on avoiding the tax while trying to sign someone like Fred VanVleet without having to worry about a sign-and-trade, which is the only way they could acquire him presently. I’m also not even sure $27MM is enough to sign VanVleet — I wouldn’t be shocked if he got $30-35MM annually.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Chris Paul ($15,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Paul’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Cameron Payne ($4,500,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Payne’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Total: $19,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 52 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chris Paul (veteran)
  • Cameron Payne (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Payton and Lundberg remain on the Suns’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,975,371

Note: The Suns may not have access to any form of mid-level exception next season if certain new rules related to the second tax apron go into effect immediately and their team salary is above that second apron. The Suns would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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