Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Offseason Preview

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

May 30th, 2022 at 2:46pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hornets took some real steps forward in 2021/22. After posting a 33-39 record and the NBA’s 23rd-best net rating (-1.9) a year earlier, Charlotte registered a positive net rating and won an additional 10 games, finishing at 43-39.

The end result was the same, however. In both years, the Hornets finished 10th in the Eastern Conference, went on the road for their first play-in game, and lost it in blowout fashion due to a lackluster defensive performance.

Rather than focusing on the positive strides the Hornets made this past season, the team’s front office and ownership group instead focused on the repeated play-in disappointments. As a result, head coach James Borrego was dismissed and roster changes are likely around the corner for a Hornets team looking to play more than just a single postseason game in 2023.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan:

The Hornets are the only NBA team that still has a head coaching vacancy, after the Kings and Lakers filled their respective openings. Hiring a replacement for Borrego will be the first order of business and will be one of the most important decisions of the offseason.

Ideally, Charlotte would want a coach capable of maximizing LaMelo Ball‘s talents, developing prospects like James Bouknight and Kai Jones, solidifying the defense, and turning a lottery team into a legitimate playoff threat. Finding a candidate who checks all those boxes won’t be easy.

Mike D’Antoni‘s name has frequently been linked to the Charlotte job, which makes some sense given his history with point guards, but he’s not exactly known as a defensive mastermind. Darvin Ham was reportedly considered a serious candidate, but he’s off the table now that he has agreed to coach the Lakers. Frank Vogel, Terry Stotts, Kenny Atkinson, David Vanterpool, Charles Lee, and Sean Sweeney are among the others who have reportedly interviewed, but it’s unclear whether any of them have captured the Hornets’ imagination with their vision for the franchise.

Once their head coaching search is complete, the Hornets will shift their focus to addressing a roster that still has a few holes. I’d expect the front office to do all it can to retain restricted free agent Miles Bridges, who was the team’s leading scorer in 2021/22. Charlotte would presumably prefer not to go all the way up to the maximum salary to re-sign Bridges, and it’s possible that won’t be necessary if no other team makes a serious run at him. But the cost to lock him up long-term will almost certainly be $25MM+ per year.

Assuming they secure Bridges, the Hornets will have to determine how best to surround him and rising star Ball going forward. Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, Montrezl Harrell, Kelly Oubre, Mason Plumlee, Cody Martin, and Jalen McDaniels filled out the rotation in 2021/22, but there are questions surrounding many of those players.

Hayward has battled injury issues since arriving in Charlotte — will the Hornets be able to use his contract in a trade or will they have to count on him being healthier going forward? Washington is extension-eligible this offseason, but is he a long-term keeper or a potential trade chip in a deal for an impact player?

Will Harrell be re-signed or will he be a roster casualty as the Hornets look to upgrade their center spot? Will Oubre and Plumlee, who both have partial guarantees, be retained on their current deals? What will it cost to re-sign RFA-to-be Martin? And does it make sense to turn down McDaniels’ option and negotiate a new contract with him this summer instead of waiting for him to reach unrestricted free agency in 2023?

While one of Harrell or Plumlee could be back, I’d expect acquiring a starting center to be at or near the top of the Hornets’ offseason to-do list. The team’s poor defensive numbers can be attributed in part to lacking the sort of big man who can protect the rim and control the boards.

Myles Turner has long been on Charlotte’s radar, but may not be on the trade block anymore following the Pacers’ decision to move Domantas Sabonis. If the Hornets want to swing big, Rudy Gobert or Deandre Ayton could be options, either via trade or free agency. If they want to play it a little safer, targeting players like Richaun Holmes or Mitchell Robinson could make more sense.

The Hornets control two first-round picks next month, at No. 13 and No. 15, which should create additional options for them on the trade market. It’s possible Charlotte could simply use both picks, but after not getting much out of last year’s first-rounders, Bouknight and Jones, it seems unlikely that the team would want to bring in more rookies in 2022/23, especially with the pressure to make the playoffs increasing.

If the Hornets can’t make a deal on or before draft night that sends out one of those picks in a deal for veteran talent, don’t be surprised if they trade one of them for a future first-round selection, plus maybe a second-rounder or two. Those picks could subsequently be used as sweeteners in a trade for win-now help during free agency or even at next season’s deadline.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Kelly Oubre ($7,600,000) 1
  • Mason Plumlee ($4,817,917) 2
  • Nick Richards ($1,782,621) 4
  • Total: $14,200,538

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall pick ($4,069,080)
  • No. 15 overall pick ($3,672,120)
  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,741,200

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Gordon Hayward (veteran)
  • Jalen McDaniels (veteran) 5
  • Mason Plumlee (veteran)
  • Nick Richards (veteran)
  • P.J. Washington (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Hornets could theoretically open up some cap room, but it would require, at the very least, letting Bridges walk. That seems unlikely.

If we assume Bridges will be back and Charlotte will have to account for some combination of Oubre, Plumlee, McDaniels, Martin, and its first-round picks, it’s more likely that team salary will approach luxury tax territory rather than being below the cap.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 6
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Oubre’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 30.
  2. Plumlee’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 21.
  3. McDaniels’ salary will remain non-guaranteed until August 1 even if his option is exercised.
  4. Richards’ salary will become fully guaranteed after July 7.
  5. McDaniels would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  6. These are projected values. If the Hornets decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000). If the Hornets approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

May 27th, 2022 at 1:19pm CST by Luke Adams

The Clippers had one of the NBA’s most expensive rosters in 2021/22, but with Kawhi Leonard spending the year recovering from the ACL tear he sustained in last year’s playoffs, the team’s ceiling was never as high as its payroll suggested.

Even with Leonard unavailable and with George limited to 31 games due to injury issues of his own, the Clippers stayed competitive all season. Head coach Tyronn Lue had an impressive year, getting the most out of minimum-salary players such as Terance Mann, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Amir Coffey and veterans like Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, Nicolas Batum, and Luke Kennard.

A record just above .500 (42-40) put the Clippers in the play-in tournament, where they still could have been dangerous if Leonard and George were available. But Kawhi wasn’t yet ready to return from his long rehab process and an ill-timed positive COVID-19 test for George prevented him from suiting up for the second play-in game, which L.A. lost.

Given how much money they spent on the roster and how little they had to show for it as season’s end (their lottery pick was sent to Oklahoma City as part of the 2019 George deal), it’s easy to view 2021/22 as a lost year for the Clippers. But the opportunities that some of the team’s role players received, and the strides they made, could pay dividends going forward as the roster gets healthier.

The Clippers’ Offseason Plan:

The Clippers got a head-start on their offseason at the trade deadline in February when they sent Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow, Keon Johnson, and a second-round pick to Portland in exchange for Norman Powell and Robert Covington.

It was the sort of move the Clippers couldn’t have waited until the offseason to make, since Bledsoe’s non-guaranteed contract for 2022/23 would’ve complicated salary matching. And it essentially allowed the team to make a pair of veteran “free agent” additions without having the cap space to do so this summer. Powell is under contract for four more seasons, while Covington recently signed a two-year extension that allowed L.A. to secure his rights through 2024. It’s safe to assume both will be key parts of next season’s roster.

With Powell and Covington locked up, Leonard and George hopefully healthier going forward, and Marcus Morris, Kennard, Jackson, Zubac, Mann, and Brandon Boston Jr. all still under team control, the Clippers have a roster capable of seriously contending even without any further additions. However, the team will still have some cap- and roster-related questions to answer.

For one, just how much tax is Steve Ballmer willing to pay? If we assume the Clippers bring back all 10 players listed above, along with 2021 second-rounder Jason Preston, the team’s salary is already up to $168.6MM, far beyond the projected luxury tax line of $149MM. Filling out the roster, including potentially negotiating new deals for Batum, Coffey, and/or Hartenstein, will only push that figure higher.

If Ballmer is willing to pay up, the Clippers have the flexibility to bring their own players back and continue pursuing roster upgrades. Batum’s Early Bird rights and Coffey’s Bird rights should allow for new deals, even if Batum turns down his $3.3MM player option.

L.A. only has Non-Bird rights on Hartenstein, so bringing him back might be trickier, but the team could use some or all of its $6.4MM taxpayer mid-level exception to make him a competitive offer or to sign an adequate replacement. If the team would rather not spend more than the minimum on its backup center, that MLE could be used to address another position.

Should Ballmer feel at all uneasy about his growing tax bill, a trade to shed salary is a possibility. Morris and Kennard are good players, but they may be a little more expendable following the additions of Covington and Powell — one or both could be shopped this offseason.

Even if cutting costs isn’t a priority, the Clippers figure to explore the trade market, since adding one more play-maker – potentially at point guard – has long been on their to-do list. They have a pair of trade exceptions worth between $8-10MM that could come in handy in certain scenarios. If there are no viable trades out there, the Clippers may have to rely on the free agent market to add a lower-cost solution — Ricky Rubio would be an intriguing target if and when he’s healthy.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Marcus Morris (veteran)
  • Ivica Zubac (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Clippers aren’t a taxpayer in 2022/23. To get below the tax line, they’d have to turn down Zubac’s option, let all their free agents walk, and then shed at least $20MM+ more in guaranteed salary before filling out their roster with minimum contracts.

I don’t see that happening, so the Clips will be limited to the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception this offseason and won’t be able to use the bi-annual exception or acquire anyone via sign-and-trade.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 1
  • Trade exception: $9,720,900
  • Trade exception: $8,250,000

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

May 26th, 2022 at 8:46am CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks were one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2020/21 NBA season, outperforming expectations by finishing 10 games above .500 and returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Instead of building on that progress in ’21/22, however, the team took a step backward, falling eight games below .500 and missing the playoffs and the play-in tournament entirely.

There were a variety of reasons for the Knicks’ letdown of a season. Regression affected certain players, including Julius Randle, who came back to earth after earning a spot on the All-NBA Second Team and a Most Improved Player award a year ago. Injuries were an issue, with point guard Derrick Rose limited to just 26 appearances. And New York’s offseason personnel changes didn’t pay dividends. Kemba Walker, in particular, was a bust — knee issues continued to diminish his effectiveness, and his offensive production was no longer good enough to make up for his subpar defense.

The Knicks built a reputation as a hard-nosed defensive team under Tom Thibodeau in 2020/21, placing fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, but didn’t look like that same club in the first half of last season. The good news? New York had the NBA’s best defensive rating after the 2022 All-Star break. The team will try to carry over that success to the fall, though it’s safe to assume next season’s roster will look a little different than the one that finished 2021/22.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan:

The Knicks’ offseason intentions are difficult to ascertain, and not just because president of basketball operations Leon Rose has zero interest in ever speaking to the media. The team doesn’t project to have any cap room, but it also has very few long-term veteran contracts on its books and has an excess of future draft picks, so there’s some flexibility to make significant changes this summer if the front office wants to take that path.

Rose, Walker, Alec Burks, and Nerlens Noel will earn a combined $43MM in 2022/23, but all four are on either expiring contracts or de facto expiring deals that include a 2023/24 team option, making them intriguing trade chips, either in the offseason or at next year’s trade deadline.

Even the team’s two most expensive veterans, who are on longer-term deals, are potential trade candidates. Randle and Evan Fournier will be more difficult to move since they’re pricier and aren’t coming off their best seasons, which will make it challenging to agree on fair value. But it’s safe to assume the Knicks would listen on either one if they receive inquiries from potential trade partners.

While no player on the Knicks’ roster should be considered a mortal lock to return, RJ Barrett is pretty close. The former No. 3 overall pick struggled to maintain his level of scoring efficiency in 2021/22 as his usage rate continued to increase, but he has shown enough upside to be viewed as a long-term cornerstone in New York.

Barrett will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and it will be interesting to see how the Knicks approach those negotiations. If the 21-year-old isn’t willing to sign for anything less than the maximum salary, the club is probably better off waiting another year to further assess whether he’s worthy of that kind of financial commitment.

Besides Barrett, the Knicks will probably be inclined to hang onto most of the rest of their 24-and-under group, including Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, and Cam Reddish. Perhaps one or two of them could be used to sweeten a trade package for an impact player, but if that sort of deal isn’t available, the team will want to continue evaluating its youngsters to determine which ones are keepers.

Reddish, like Barrett, is extension-eligible this offseason, but the Knicks haven’t seen enough from him yet to guarantee him anything long-term.

As the Knicks consider potential trades or free agent signings, adding a starting point guard remains a top priority. Jalen Brunson has been repeatedly linked to New York for months, and his connections to the franchise (via Rose and his father Rick Brunson) have been well documented, but it won’t be easy to pry him away from the Mavericks, who have repeatedly conveyed a desire to keep him.

Since they won’t have any cap room, the Knicks would either have to shed a couple contracts via trade to create the cap room necessary to make a serious offer for Brunson, or negotiate a sign-and-trade deal with a Dallas team that won’t be eager to help them out.

Neither one of those scenarios is out of the question, especially since Brunson will be unrestricted — if he wants to go to New York, he can make it happen. But the Knicks may be wary about giving up assets (in a sign-and-trade or in salary-dump trades) in order to give an undersized point guard upwards of $20-25MM per year. They weren’t interested in seriously pursuing a similar player (Fred VanVleet) at a similar rate a year ago when they had cap room available, so we’ll see if they make a real push for Brunson or look elsewhere for point guard help.

Trades may be the focus of the offseason for the Knicks, since 13 of their 15 standard-roster players remain under contracts, but there’s one key free agent to watch: big man Mitchell Robinson.

Like Brunson, Robinson signed a four-year contract as a second-round pick and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, having never had to deal with restricted free agency. That will reduce the Knicks’ leverage and allow Robinson to sign outright with a new team without giving his current team a chance to match. It wouldn’t surprise me if he departs, given that he didn’t always seem thrilled about his role in New York — that could open the door for a new team to sell the young center on its vision for him.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 11 overall pick ($4,508,640)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,508,640

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • RJ Barrett (rookie scale)
  • Cam Reddish (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Knicks currently project to operate over the cap. Their guaranteed salary and the cap hold for their first-round pick total approximately $118MM, so the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would push team salary well past the projected $122MM cap.

The Knicks remain far below the projected luxury tax line ($149MM), so they should have the flexibility to re-sign Robinson and use the full mid-level exception, if they so choose. Theoretically, New York could even clear a little cap space by moving a mid-sized salary or two, but to take that route, the team would probably need to have a specific free target in mind and be very confident about its chances to secure that target.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 1
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 1
  • Trade exception: $1,175,818

Footnotes

  1. These are projected values. If the Knicks decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exception) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 6 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 23rd, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The first four weeks of the 2021/22 season couldn’t have gone any better for the Wizards. On the morning of November 17, the team sat atop the Eastern Conference with a 10-3 record, Wes Unseld Jr. looked like the most impressive hire of the NBA’s first-time head coaches, and head of basketball operations Tommy Sheppard had just received a promotion and a contract extension.

Things didn’t immediately go into a tailspin from there – the Wizards were still over .500 two months later – but that first month was the peak of Washington’s season. Spencer Dinwiddie, the team’s big acquisition of the 2021 offseason, never quite fit in; Bradley Beal battled health issues; and the defense that ranked fourth in the NBA during that 10-3 start was just 26th the rest of the way.

The Wizards ultimately finished well out of the play-in picture with a 35-47 record and now face a pivotal offseason, with Beal up for a new contract and Kristaps Porzingis – acquired for Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans in February – suddenly part of the long-term plan in D.C.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

Beal is considered likely to turn down his $36.4MM player option in order to sign a new long-term contract this month, and reports in recent months have given no indication that he’s looking for an exit ramp out of Washington.

It’s good news for the Wizards that their franchise player isn’t forcing his way out, but if Beal wants to stay, that creates a new dilemma for the organization. Is it really prudent to lock up an offense-first shooting guard who is coming off a down year and entering his age-29 season to a five-year contract projected to be worth $247MM? And if the Wizards aren’t entirely comfortable with offering that full five-year max, how would that affect Beal’s desire to stick around?

It’s a tough spot for the Wizards and for Sheppard, who would scarcely have time for a victory lap if he re-signs Beal, since he’ll immediately be under pressure to figure out how best to surround him with enough talent to turn the team into a contender. The pre-deadline acquisition of Porzingis is an intriguing start, but as the Mavericks learned, figuring out how to maximize KP’s talent and keep him healthy is easier said than done.

Assuming Beal is back, the Wizards will likely be operating as an over-the-cap team, so they’ll have to fill their other roster holes on the trade market or using their mid-level exception. Following the failed experiment with Dinwiddie, the point guard spot is the most glaring of those holes and it’ll be fascinating to see what path the club takes to address that need.

Theoretically, a backcourt player who can handle tougher defensive assignments and space the floor would make sense as a fit next to Beal, but it’ll be a challenge to find that kind of player on the free agent market, especially at a mid-level price point. Malcolm Brogdon, rumored to be an offseason trade candidate, might be an intriguing target, though acquiring the Pacers guard would mean leaning even more heavily on players with extensive injury histories.

If the Wizards head to the trade market to seek an upgrade at point guard or another position, teams will likely ask for at least one of their recent first-round selections — Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, and Corey Kispert.

All have shown flashes of potential, but none has emerged as a reliable starting-caliber player yet. Hachimura, who got the closest this past season, will be extension-eligible this summer, so Washington will soon have to make some decisions on which of those young players are part of the team’s future and which could instead be trade chips.

The Wizards are in position to add one more lottery-caliber prospect to their roster next month, as they currently hold the No. 10 pick in the draft.

They may simply pick whichever player is atop their draft board at that spot, prioritizing talent over fit. But it’s worth noting that Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis, a versatile defender who can play either position in the backcourt, has been projected in that range. Duke’s AJ Griffin, one of the best shooters and youngest players in the draft, would also be a nice match if he makes it to No. 10.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($9,116,585) 1
  • Ish Smith ($4,725,000) 2
  • Total: $13,841,585

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall pick ($4,746,000)
  • No. 54 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,746,000

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Bradley Beal (veteran) 3
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (veteran)
  • Vernon Carey Jr. (veteran)
  • Rui Hachimura (rookie scale)
  • Kyle Kuzma (veteran)
  • Kristaps Porzingis (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Washington’s cap outlook hinges on what happens with Beal. Although they only have about $76MM in guaranteed salary on the books after accounting for the No. 1 pick, a $40MM+ investment in the star guard would essentially eliminate the Wizards’ cap room, especially if they guarantee the remainder of Caldwell-Pope’s salary.

If Beal departs, the team could theoretically open up a significant amount of space, but that would depend on whether he’s signed-and-traded. In that scenario, the Wizards would likely end up taking back a significant chunk of salary and could end up over the cap anyway.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $5,220,900
  • Trade exception: $3,980,551

Footnotes

  1. Caldwell-Pope’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 28.
  2. Smith’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 1.
  3. Beal would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  4. The cap holds for these players remain on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

May 22nd, 2022 at 5:36pm CST by Luke Adams

After making the playoffs for 22 straight seasons, the Spurs finished with middling 32-39 and 33-39 records in 2019/20 and ’20/21, seemingly reluctant to overhaul their veteran roster.

They finally leaned into a youth movement last offseason when they sent DeMar DeRozan to Chicago in a sign-and-trade deal, and fully committed to that retooling process during the season. Historically averse to wheeling and dealing during the season, the Spurs were uncharacteristically active in 2021/22, making four pre-deadline trades, including one that sent Derrick White – one of their longest-tenured players – to Boston.

The end result – a 34-48 record and a quick exit in the play-in tournament – wasn’t that different from the two years prior, but the Spurs seem to have a more clear-cut direction going forward, as they build around All-Star guard Dejounte Murray and a collection of young talent that includes 2021 first-round pick Joshua Primo and extension-eligible forward Keldon Johnson.

The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:

The Spurs will have a handful of decisions to make this summer on players eligible for free agency and players who have non-guaranteed contracts for next season.

Lonnie Walker, the team’s most notable free agent, had an up-and-down 2021/22 showing after enjoying a mini-breakout in ’20/21. A career 36.9% three-point shooter entering the season, Walker made a career-worst 31.4% attempts from beyond the arc, though he did establish a new career-high with 12.1 points per game.

Armed with plenty of cap flexibility and the right of first refusal, the Spurs are in a position to re-sign Walker if they want to, but they’ll have to determine whether or not he fits into their long-term plans, given all the other wings on the roster. Primo, Johnson, and Devin Vassell look for now like keepers, while Josh Richardson and Romeo Langford are in the mix on the wing for the time being, though they’ll both be entering contract years.

The Spurs have shown a willingness to give their first-round picks a second contract even if those players haven’t yet fully realized their potential, and sometimes it pays off, as in the case of Murray, a Most Improved Player runner-up in his sixth season. But the team could open up significant cap room by letting go of Walker and his $13MM+ cap hold. I expect they’ll at least extend him a qualifying offer and then see if he draws much interest elsewhere before making a final decision.

Devontae Cacok and Joe Wieskamp, who received in-season promotions from two-way deals to standard contracts, are also free agents, but they likely won’t be in line for more than minimum salaries if they re-sign.

The Spurs seem like a good bet to bring back most or all of their players on non-guaranteed contracts, including Zach Collins, whose $7.35MM salary is already half guaranteed — he showed enough in his return from multiple foot surgeries to warrant a longer look. Keita Bates-Diop, Tre Jones, and Jock Landale have non-guaranteed minimum deals and should be back unless San Antonio wants to open up an extra roster spot or two.

While parting with Walker would open up significant cap room for the Spurs, they haven’t typically been major players in free agency and could use any space they do have to take on an unwanted contract or two along with a draft pick, as they did during the season with Goran Dragic and Tomas Satoransky. Still, it’s worth noting that San Antonio has the flexibility to be a legitimate threat for a Miles Bridges-type restricted free agent if there’s a specific player the front office likes.

The most exciting night of San Antonio’s offseason might come on June 23 — no team holds more first-round picks or more overall selections than the Spurs, who currently control Nos. 9, 20, 25, and 38. Those picks will create a ton of options for the front office, which may not be inclined to add three or four rookies to the roster for 2022/23. Moving up, moving down, trading a first-rounder for future picks, or making a trade involving a handful of picks and players are all possibilities the club will likely entertain.

Assuming the Spurs remain at No. 9, it will be interesting to see what type of prospect they target. Last year’s selection of Primo at No. 12 was a roll of the dice on a player who has tremendous long-term upside but was the youngest in his draft class. If the team takes that approach again this year, it could mean taking a chance on a player like Jalen Duren, Dyson Daniels, or Ousmane Dieng.

Finally, the ever-present question of Gregg Popovich‘s future looms over every move the Spurs make. Popovich, who has been San Antonio’s head coach since 1996, is probably nearing the end of the road, but the deeper we get into the offseason, the more likely it is that he’ll be back for at least the 2022/23 campaign. Making sure there’s a strong succession plan in place for his eventual retirement will be a top priority for a franchise that has been a paragon of stability during the Popovich years.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($4,995,720)
  • No. 20 overall pick ($2,886,480)
  • No. 25 overall pick ($2,353,560)
  • No. 38 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $10,235,760

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Keldon Johnson (rookie scale)
  • Tre Jones (veteran)
  • Romeo Langford (rookie scale)
  • Dejounte Murray (veteran)
  • Jakob Poeltl (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

  • None

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Spurs bring back all their players on non-guaranteed contracts and hang onto their three first-round picks, they’ll have a projected $29MM+ in cap space.

That number would further increase if not all of those non-guaranteed players are back or if San Antonio trades one of its first-round picks for future assets. However, it could be cut nearly in half if retaining Walker is a priority, since he’ll have a $13MM+ cap hold until he signs a new deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $5,329,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Collins’ salary will become fully guaranteed after June 24.
  2. Bates-Diop’s salary will become fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. Jones’ salary will become partially guaranteed ($500K) after August 1 and fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  4. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 4 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

May 20th, 2022 at 8:47am CST by Luke Adams

No team had a more disappointing 2021/22 season than the Lakers, who entered the year as the favorites to come out of the Western Conference. After an underwhelming but respectable 21-19 start, the Lakers improbably won just 10 of their next 40 games, missing out on not just the playoffs but the play-in tournament.

Injuries to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis played a part in the Lakers’ struggles, but it’s not like the team was dominant when James, Davis, and Russell Westbrook were all available. A lack of reliable role players and an inability to maximize Westbrook’s strengths contributed to a letdown of a season in Los Angeles, and head coach Frank Vogel became the fall guy, losing his job at the end of the regular season.

While the Lakers would presumably like to make significant roster changes this offseason, reshaping the roster around James and Davis, their ability to do so will be limited, since they project to be a taxpaying team even with just a handful of players under contract, and don’t have any picks in this year’s draft.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan:

A year after trading away Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and their first-round pick for Westbrook, the Lakers would be thrilled to pull off the inverse of that deal, sending out Westbrook’s expiring contract for a handful of less expensive rotation players and a draft pick.

Unfortunately, Westbrook’s stock has cratered in the last 12 months and it’s unlikely the Lakers will be able to get anything decent back for him unless they’re willing to include their 2027 and/or 2029 first-round picks (the only two they can currently move, due to the Stepien Rule) or unless they’re open to taking on a significant chunk of unwanted multiyear salary.

With the Lakers focused on maximizing their title window for as long as the 37-year-old James is still playing at an All-NBA level, it’s not out of the question that they’d further mortgage their future by attaching a couple first-rounders to Westbrook to get immediate help.

However, the front office has projected patience in recent months, and the team has reportedly asked its head coaching candidates how they would use the 33-year-old point guard. That’s a sign that the Lakers are leaning toward hanging onto Westbrook – at least for now – and perhaps revisiting a trade at the 2023 deadline or letting his $47MM+ salary come off the cap next summer.

If James, Davis, and Westbrook are staying, the Lakers will have about $130MM on their books for just three players, eliminating any possibility of cap space and almost certainly preventing the club from using its full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Even just filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary players would take team salary above the projected luxury tax line.

That leaves a small handful of assets for the Lakers to use for potential roster upgrades. A trade package that includes Talen Horton-Tucker and/or Kendrick Nunn is one option. Neither player’s value is especially high right now, but Horton-Tucker is still young enough (21) to have some upside and Nunn, whose $5.25MM expiring contract isn’t onerous, is a bounce-back candidate if he’s healthy. Adding a future first-round pick to that duo would further sweeten the pot.

It’s also worth noting that the Lakers still have about $4.4MM available to send out in trades before the 2022/23 league year begins in July. That money could be used to grease the wheels on a Horton-Tucker/Nunn deal or to trade back into the second round of the draft.

With the full mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, and sign-and-trade acquisitions likely off the table for the Lakers due to their proximity to the tax line, they’ll probably be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception and minimum-salary contracts in free agency.

Last year’s free agent haul showed the dangers of leaning on those limited assets — the team used its taxpayer MLE on Nunn, who didn’t play a single game due to a leg injury, and many of its minimum-salary signings were busts, including DeAndre Jordan, Trevor Ariza, and Kent Bazemore.

However, minimum-salary additions like Malik Monk, Avery Bradley, and Stanley Johnson worked out well, as did the signing of undrafted rookie Austin Reaves. It’ll be easier said than done, but the front office will be looking to improve its hit rate on its low-cost signings in 2022/23, finding more Monks and fewer Jordans.

The Lakers’ head coaching search also shouldn’t be overlooked as one of the most important decisions of the team’s offseason. Identifying a candidate who is capable of managing superstar personalities, getting more out of Westbrook, handling the Los Angeles spotlight, and guiding the team back to contention will be a challenge.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • LeBron James (veteran)
  • Russell Westbrook (veteran) 2

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Even if the Lakers do find a taker for Westbrook, who is a lock to pick up his option, they’ll likely have to take back upwards of $40MM in salary to make the deal work financially — dumping his $47MM+ contract onto another team without taking much, or any, salary back just isn’t realistic.

As a result, it’s a pretty safe bet that the Lakers will once again find themselves above the luxury tax line in 2022/23. Right now, that tax line projects to be set at $149MM.

Due to their cap situation and their lack of any real Bird rights on their free agents, it’ll be difficult for the Lakers to give any of those veterans much of a raise on their 2021/22 salary. That will be a problem if they want to re-sign Monk — they’ll be limited to an offer worth about $2.5MM unless they use their taxpayer mid-level exception on him.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 4
  • Trade exception: $2,692,991
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178

Footnotes

  1. Gabriel’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Westbrook would only be eligible if his option is exercised, which is expected.
  3. The cap holds for these players remain on the Lakers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

May 18th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings‘ 2021/22 season got off to a rough start and didn’t get any better from there. Sacramento became the first and only team to make an in-season coaching change in ’21/22, and Alvin Gentry‘s winning percentage (.369) after replacing Luke Walton was barely an improvement on Walton’s mark (.353).

The Kings made a major splash at the trade deadline when they sent 2020 first-round pick Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana in a six-player deal that landed two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento, and there was some brief hope that the acquisition of Sabonis could help push the team into play-in territory during the home stretch of the season.

However, the Kings continued to lose games after the trade and ultimately shut down Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, neither of whom played in the final three weeks of the season due to injuries. The end result? Sacramento is now the holder of an ignominious NBA record, having missed the playoffs for a 16th consecutive season.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan:

The Kings will be laser-focused on ending their postseason drought in 2022/23 and general manager Monte McNair will certainly be feeling some pressure to make it happen, since he’s reportedly entering the final year of his contract.

Sacramento’s desire to be a playoff team raises some interesting questions about the No. 4 overall pick in the draft. With Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, and Paolo Banchero likely to come off the board in the top three, would the Kings target an older prospect who is considered more NBA-ready, such as forward Keegan Murray? Are they interested in rolling the dice on guard Jaden Ivey to create an electric offensive backcourt, even if it creates more questions about how their defense would hold up? Would they be willing to put that fourth overall pick in a trade for an impact veteran?

It’s a tricky spot for McNair. There’s certainly no guarantee that the Kings will be able to add a franchise player at No. 4, but it’s still such a valuable asset that they’d want to acquire a legitimate star if they were to trade it. Will a player of that caliber be out there this summer? If not, could the Kings consider a deal where they move down a few spots in the draft and acquire a starter-caliber veteran rather than a potential All-Star?

Whether they keep it or trade it, that No. 4 pick will be the Kings’ best bet to acquire impact talent, since they won’t have cap room available to make waves in free agency. Re-signing restricted free agent Donte DiVincenzo and using their mid-level exception on a rotation player could be the extent of Sacramento’s free agent moves.

If they do hang onto their lottery pick, there are some other ways the Kings could get involved in trade discussions.

Center Richaun Holmes looks like the most obvious trade chip on the roster — the four-year, $46.5MM contract he signed last summer seemed pretty team-friendly at the time, but Holmes struggled to find his niche following the acquisition of Sabonis and his stock has dipped a little over the last year. Still, he’s in his prime at age 28 and he should draw interest from teams in need of help at center.

The Kings will also have to decide whether they consider forward Harrison Barnes part of their long-term future. Barnes is a solid – but not spectacular – scorer and defender who is entering a contract year. His expiring $18.4MM deal would have positive value, but he’s also the sort of player who should fit well alongside Fox and Sabonis, so a possible contract extension shouldn’t be ruled out either.

Other non-core pieces on expiring contracts include Justin Holiday, Terence Davis, Maurice Harkless, and Alex Len. While there shouldn’t be any urgency to move any of those four, I imagine the Kings would be open to discussing any of them if rival teams inquire.

Of course, Sacramento has already made one of its biggest offseason decisions, announcing earlier this month that Warriors assistant Mike Brown will be the team’s next head coach. The Kings wanted a coach who had experience turning a lottery team into a playoff club. Brown technically fits that bill, having done so in Cleveland, but he had plenty of help from LeBron James in that instance — he’ll face a more significant challenge trying to repeat that feat in Sacramento without one of the NBA’s all-time greats on his roster.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall pick ($7,901,280)
  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 49 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,901,280

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Harrison Barnes (veteran)
  • Justin Holiday (veteran)
  • Domantas Sabonis (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Accounting for their guaranteed salaries and the cap hold for their first-round pick, the Kings will have about $110MM on their books, putting them in position to be an over-the-cap team. They should be able to re-sign DiVincenzo to a fair contract and use their full $10MM+ mid-level exception without going into luxury-tax territory, if they so choose.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
  • Trade exception: $4,023,600
  • Trade exception: $1,630,934

Footnotes

  1. Metu’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
  2. The cap hold for Brewer remain on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

May 16th, 2022 at 7:16am CST by Luke Adams

After two consecutive first-round playoff losses, the Trail Blazers entered the 2021/22 season hoping that a new head coach (Chauncey Billups), a new frontcourt addition (Larry Nance Jr.), and a full season of newly re-signed swingman Norman Powell would raise their ceiling.

However, after a 10-8 start, Portland lost 14 of its next 17 games, and the last of those 17 games was the final one of Damian Lillard‘s season, as he underwent surgery to address an abdominal injury that had bothered him for years.

With their playoff hopes on life support, the Blazers changed course. New general manager Joe Cronin – who replaced president of basketball operations Neil Olshey in December following an investigation into Olshey’s workplace conduct – was given the green light to overhaul the roster prior to the trade deadline. Cronin didn’t hold back, sending Powell and Robert Covington to the Clippers and Nance and CJ McCollum to New Orleans for future assets and cap flexibility.

Jusuf Nurkic (foot), Nassir Little (shoulder), and Anfernee Simons (knee) joined Lillard on the sidelines as Portland went into tank mode in the second half of the season. Following the All-Star break, the Blazers were 2-21 with an unfathomably bad -21.3 net rating, finishing with the NBA’s sixth-worst record and putting themselves in position to draft a top prospect this June.

The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan:

When Cronin blew up the Blazers’ roster in February, the common refrain coming out of Portland was that the team wanted to quickly retool the roster, perhaps flipping some of its newly-acquired assets before next season in an effort to get back to the playoffs. The goal wasn’t to launch a full-fledged rebuild, but to reshape the roster around players like Lillard, Little, and RFA-to-be Simons.

Avoiding a years-long tank is a noble goal, but it’s unclear whether the Blazers have the assets necessary to complete a fast turnaround. The packages they received in their deadline deals with the Clippers and Pelicans were somewhat underwhelming, especially after New Orleans made the playoffs and prevented Portland from acquiring the Pels’ 2022 first-round pick (it would’ve gone to the Blazers if it landed between Nos. 5 and 14).

The Blazers acquired Josh Hart, a solid two-way contributor, in the McCollum trade, and got Justise Winslow and Keon Johnson in their trade with the Clippers. Those players could help going forward, but they’re complementary parts, not centerpieces. The most valuable draft asset the Blazers got in their two mega-deals was Milwaukee’s top-four protected 2025 first-round pick, which will have limited trade value, given that it’s considered unlikely to be a high selection.

Theoretically, Portland has a path to significant cap room this offseason, but maximizing that space would mean shedding non-guaranteed salaries (like Hart’s), renouncing key cap holds (including Nurkic’s), and forfeiting the $20.8MM trade exception created in the McCollum deal. In other words, any move requiring cap room would force the Blazers to make some serious sacrifices, so the trade-off may not be worth it.

The Blazers’ most logical play this offseason might be to operate over the cap, re-signing Simons and Nurkic, retaining Hart, and waiving Eric Bledsoe‘s mostly non-guaranteed contract in order to create space under the tax line to take advantage of that big trade exception and/or the mid-level exception, targeting wings and strong defensive players with those exceptions.

A five-man group of Lillard, Simons, Nurkic, Hart, and Little probably isn’t a playoff-caliber starting lineup in the West, but it’s a decent starting point for the roster. With a top-10 pick, some cap exceptions, and a willingness to trade future draft assets, Portland is in position to add more talent.

Still, given how much the team is paying Lillard on his current contract and how much new deals for Simons and Nurkic could cost, there won’t be a ton of margin for error, so the Blazers are under some pressure to get this summer’s moves right.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Eric Bledsoe ($15,475,000) 1
  • Josh Hart ($12,960,000) 2
  • Total: $28,435,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall pick ($5,932,440)
  • No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 59 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,932,440

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Eric Bledsoe (veteran)
  • Damian Lillard (veteran)
  • Nassir Little (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With just $65MM in guaranteed money on their books for next season, the Blazers could theoretically create upwards of $50MM in cap room if they renounce all their free agents and exceptions, waive-and-stretch Bledsoe, and drop Hart. However, that’s probably not a realistic outcome.

It’s a safe bet that Simons isn’t going anywhere, and Hart’s deal is pretty team-friendly. If we add Simons’ cap hold and Hart’s salary to Portland’s books, that projected cap room dips to about $27MM. And if the team intends to retain Nurkic and its $20MM+ trade exception, that cap room goes away entirely.

The Blazers will have options this offseason, but they’d need a very good, specific reason to give up key assets to go under the cap. Our working assumption is that they’ll be an over-the-cap team unless an opportunity arises that they can’t pass up.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
  • Trade exception: $20,864,198
  • Trade exception: $6,519,792
  • Trade exception: $3,261,480

Footnotes

  1. Bledsoe’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Hart’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 25.
  3. The cap holds for these players remain on the Blazers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. If the Blazers decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exceptions) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

May 11th, 2022 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Pacers entered the 2021/22 season with playoff aspirations, but some bad luck and tight losses derailed the first half of their season, and a series of injuries contributed to their inability to get back on track.

By the trade deadline, the Pacers were looking ahead to the future and decided to send All-Star center Domantas Sabonis to Sacramento in a six-player deal for potential franchise cornerstone Tyrese Haliburton.

The move was typical of an Indiana team that has historically been reluctant to launch a full-fledged rebuild. As was the case when they traded Paul George to Oklahoma City in 2017 for Sabonis and Victor Oladipo, the Pacers preferred to acquire a promising young player rather than far-away draft picks, in the hopes of accelerating their return to the postseason.

With a top-10 pick in hand and some intriguing talent under contract, it will be interesting to see how much patience the front office is willing to exercise this offseason as the retooling process continues.

The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:

We know that Haliburton will be part of the future in Indiana, and it’s a safe bet that 2021 first-rounders Chris Duarte and Isaiah Jackson aren’t going anywhere either. Beyond that, there are some unanswered questions.

Myles Turner was viewed as one of the NBA’s top trade candidates early in the 2021/22 season. With Sabonis gone, will Turner stick around or will the Pacers still be willing to discuss him trade talks? If he’s part of the long-term plans, will Indiana be able to extend him this offseason as he prepares to enter a contract year? Would Turner be open to an extension?

Malcolm Brogdon, meanwhile, is under contract for three more seasons, and could theoretically fit alongside Haliburton, since both players can handle the ball or play off it and neither is a defensive liability. However, there has been some speculation that Brogdon could be dealt, especially if the Pacers want to clear some long-term money from their books. He wasn’t trade-eligible during the season after signing an extension, but he will be this summer. Will Indiana look to move him?

When Buddy Hield was included in the Haliburton trade in February, it wasn’t clear whether he was simply thrown in for salary-matching purposes or if the Pacers envisioned him remaining on the roster beyond the season. His performance in Indiana made that an even more interesting question — his 18.2 PPG and .447 FG% were significant steps up from the numbers he was putting up in Sacramento, and he flashed newfound play-making skills (a career-high 4.8 APG).

Hield has two years and $40MM left on his contract, which looks a little more team-friendly than it did three or four months ago. The Pacers should be able to move him without having to attach other assets, but it’s unclear what their intentions are.

Jalen Smith played well for the Pacers after arriving in a deadline deal, but because his 2022/23 rookie scale team option was declined last year, the team can’t offer him a starting salary higher than about $4.7MM, which may not be enough to bring him back.

I also wouldn’t expect Ricky Rubio or T.J. Warren – neither of whom played a game for Indiana this season – to return, but the team’s final unrestricted free agent, Lance Stephenson, is a good candidate for a new deal. He seems to have found a home in Indiana.

Of course, before they have to make any free agent decisions, the Pacers will have a lot riding on the draft lottery results. Their offseason will take a much different shape if they’re picking in the top three or four than it would if they slip to No. 7 or No. 8.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($6,498,600)
  • No. 31 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 60 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $6,498,600

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Goga Bitadze (rookie scale)
  • Buddy Hield (veteran)
  • Myles Turner (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Taking into account their returning players, Brissett’s team option, and a cap hold for their first-round pick, the Pacers project to have about $94MM in guaranteed money. That number could fluctuate a little one way or the other, depending on their lottery luck, but it puts the team in position to open up at least $20-25MM in cap space.

Taking that route would mean renouncing most of their free agent cap holds, as well as about $35MM in free agency and trade exceptions, detailed below. So the Pacers would need a good reason to renounce those cap charges and operate under the cap. If they have no specific use for the space, they could simply continue to function as an over-the-cap club, retaining all their exceptions.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $10,500,000
  • Trade exception: $7,333,333
  • Trade exception: $2,320,000
  • Trade exception: $420,049

Footnotes

  1. Taylor’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Brissett’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  3. Washington’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 6.
  4. The Pacers can’t offer Smith a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his 2022/23 rookie scale option was declined.
  5. These are projected values. If the Pacers decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exceptions) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

May 4th, 2022 at 1:50pm CST by Luke Adams

It may feel as if the Thunder have been mired in the rebuilding process forever, but it was less than two years ago that the Chris Paul-led version of the team was competing in the bubble playoffs as a No. 5 seed. Since then, of course, Oklahoma City hasn’t come close to sniffing the postseason and has shown little inclination to try, shutting down a series of players due to injuries after the All-Star break in both 2021 and 2022.

Still, the Thunder haven’t been the NBA’s worst team in the last two years, and they’ve uncovered some potential gems during that stretch. Last year’s No. 6 overall pick, Josh Giddey, looks like the closest thing to a home run so far, but OKC has some other promising young players under contract and has done well to get value out of a player like Kenrich Williams, a throw-in in the Steven Adams sign-and-trade two offseason ago.

Given how many draft picks the Thunder have stockpiled and how few games they’ve won since leaving the 2020 bubble, there will be some fans anxious to see them start pushing their chips into the middle of the table this summer. But Sam Presti, who has no concerns about his job security, won’t be rushed, and appears satisfied to spend at least one more year in the lottery, focused on player development, before he begins to put his foot a little further down on the gas pedal.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

The Thunder will be a team worth watching close before and during the draft, since they still have a ton of unused cap room for the 2021/22 league year. That cap space will essentially disappear at the start of July when the new league year begins and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s maximum-salary extension hits the team’s books, but it’ll be available in June and could be useful to accommodate a salary-dump trade.

Of course, the fact that the Thunder are once again loaded with valuable draft picks will also make them one of the most intriguing teams of the first half of the offseason. Oklahoma City controls four of the top 34 picks of 2022 and will have two lottery selections.

The Thunder didn’t have great lottery luck a year ago, slipping from fourth in the lottery standings to sixth in the draft itself. But with their own pick and the Clippers’ pick in this year’s lottery, their odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick are as good as anyone’s, and they’ll have a better chance than any other team of ending up in the top four. That bodes well, considering some draft experts believe there’s a drop-off after the consensus top four prospects (Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey).

All 15 of the Thunder players who finished the season on standard deals remain under contract for next season, so the front office won’t technically have any free agent decisions to make. But the team will still have to make several keep-or-cut calls on players who have team options or non-guaranteed salaries. Some of those decisions will be simple – Williams and Luguentz Dort, both earning $2MM or less, obviously won’t be cut – but I certainly wouldn’t expect everyone to be back.

Presti could also be active on the trade market, if only to help make room for the incoming rookies. Derrick Favors is the most obvious trade candidate on the roster, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some young players shopped if they’re not considered long-term cornerstones. Darius Bazley and Ty Jerome, for instance, are both entering contract years and could be trade candidates if OKC doesn’t want to lock them up with extensions.

Among the Thunder’s extension-eligible players, Dort and Williams are the best candidates to receive new deals. The team would be able to offer either player a four-year extension worth up to approximately $60MM.

If the Thunder are concerned about their ability to extend Dort, they do have the option of turning down his team option for 2022/23 in order to make him a restricted free agent. That would make him more expensive in the short term, but would eliminate the possibility of him getting away in unrestricted free agency in 2023. In that scenario, Oklahoma City would also be able to go beyond the four-year, $60MM-ish limit that would apply to an extension.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 2 overall pick ($9,758,880)
  • No. 12 overall pick ($4,283,400)
  • No. 30 overall pick ($2,164,560)
  • No. 34 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $16,206,840

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Darius Bazley (rookie scale)
  • Luguentz Dort (veteran) 5
  • Derrick Favors (veteran) 5
  • Ty Jerome (rookie scale)
  • Theo Maledon (veteran)
  • Isaiah Roby (veteran) 5
  • Kenrich Williams (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Thunder only currently have about $84MM in guaranteed money on their books for next season, but after accounting for the options most likely to be picked up and the cap holds for three first-round picks, that number jumps to about $117MM. That means the Thunder will almost certainly operate as an over-the-cap team once free agency opens.

It’s possible Oklahoma City will shed some salary in trades and try to gain some cap room, but there would need to be a specific purpose for that cap space. The Thunder showed in 2021/22 when they were only carrying $78MM in guaranteed money and still operated “over” the cap for much of the season that they won’t renounce exceptions and cap holds and go under the cap just for the sake of it.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 7
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 7

Footnotes

  1. Gilgeous-Alexander’s salary will be worth 25% of the salary cap. If the cap ends up above or below $122MM, this figure will be adjusted upward or downward.
  2. Roby’s salary will remain non-guaranteed until July 3 even if his option is exercised.
  3. Williams’ salary will become fully guaranteed after last day of offseason (mid-October).
  4. Maledon’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 30.
  5. Dort, Favors, and Roby would only be eligible if their options are exercised.
  6. The cap holds for these players remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0
Load More Posts