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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

July 14th, 2021 at 11:50am CST by Luke Adams

No NBA team outperformed its preseason expectations more significantly in the 2020/21 season than the Knicks, who were projected by oddsmakers to be in the mix for the league’s worst record. Instead, New York, buoyed by a Julius Randle breakout year and the influence of new head coach Tom Thibodeau, claimed a top-four seed in the East by finishing with a 41-31 record.

The Knicks’ first-round series vs. Atlanta exposed some of the deficiencies that the team was able to mask during the regular season, and Thibodeau’s club made a quick postseason exit, losing to the Hawks in five games. But it was still a massively successful year for a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs or even finished above .500 since 2013.

While some regression should perhaps be expected in 2021/22, the Knicks are well-positioned to avoid taking a step backward by adding reinforcements to their core group, which includes Randle and rising forward RJ Barrett. New York will have more cap space than any other NBA team and has extra first-round picks both this year and in the future, making the club a threat to be a player in free agency or on the trade market.

The Knicks are still a ways off from title contention, but for the first time in years, there are legitimate reasons to be optimistic about the team’s future.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan:

Although the Knicks are in a good spot to add outside help to their roster, many of their most important decisions will be made on their own players.

Randle, for instance, was once considered a candidate to be waived before his full 2021/22 salary became guaranteed. That’s no longer a realistic outcome. Instead, the Knicks will have to decide whether to offer him an extension that could have a base value worth up to $106MM+ over four years (plus incentives) and Randle will have to decide whether to accept it.

If New York believes Randle’s improvements – particularly his three-point percentage – are sustainable, offering that extension certainly makes sense for the team. Of course, if Randle believes the same thing, he’d be justified in turning down such an offer in the hopes of securing a more lucrative contract as a free agent in 2022.

Randle’s future will in turn impact that of 2020 lottery pick Obi Toppin, who had an underwhelming rookie year, in large part because he wasn’t a great fit in lineups that featured Barrett and Randle. If the Knicks are committed to Randle long-term, Toppin could become a trade chip.

The Knicks also face an important decision on Mitchell Robinson, who has a non-guaranteed minimum salary for 2021/22. Typically, guaranteeing that salary and perhaps exploring a contract extension would be the obvious move for the club. But if Robinson reaches free agency in 2022, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. If New York turns down his team option, he’d be a restricted free agent this summer, giving the team more control in locking him up going forward.

The Knicks will have to determine whether Robinson, who was limited to 31 games this season due to a right foot injury, is a crucial part of their future. If he is, they’ll have to figure out what the best approach is for making sure he’s around for the long haul.

Finally, the Knicks face decisions on several veteran free agents, including key role players like Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Reggie Bullock. All of those vets could be in line for raises after strong seasons in New York, so the team will have to weigh which of its free agents are worth more substantial investments and which should be cut loose in search of a better bargain.

We haven’t even gotten yet to the upgrades the Knicks may pursue outside of the organization, but their options should be plentiful. In recent years, the organization has been unable to attract top free agents to New York due to the club’s poor play and questionable leadership. But the Knicks’ 2020/21 success and the stability that Thibodeau and president of basketball operations Leon Rose have brought to the franchise have helped boost the team’s appeal.

That doesn’t mean the Knicks will be able to go out and add Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul, but it does mean that free agency could be a more viable path to adding an impact player than it has been in recent years. That’s especially true given New York’s financial flexibility — if the team wants to outbid rival suitors for a veteran free agent such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, or Spencer Dinwiddie, it has the ability to do so.

That cap flexibility will also help grease the wheels for potential trades. For example, while I don’t view Collin Sexton as a perfect fit in New York, there are rumors that the team has been the most aggressive trade suitor for him so far. The Knicks’ financial flexibility could allow them to take on Kevin Love‘s oversized contract as part of a Sexton deal, or to comfortably negotiate a long-term extension for the high-scoring guard. Again, I’m not sure either of those moves is in New York’s best interest, but those are the kinds of possibilities that cap space helps create.

Of course, in their first year with substantial cap room available in 2020, Rose and the Knicks’ front office took a more conservative approach, prioritizing short-term, team-friendly deals for undervalued players like Burks and Noel.

It’s possible the team could go that route again if there are no favorable opportunities to take a bigger swing. But after the Knicks’ success in 2020/21, I imagine the front office will feel a little more pressure – including perhaps from Thibodeau – to add the types of players who can help the club take another step forward in ’21/22.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($2,770,560)
  • No. 21 overall pick ($2,553,120)
  • No. 32 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 58 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,323,680

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kevin Knox (rookie scale)
  • Julius Randle (veteran)
  • Mitchell Robinson (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Locking in Randle’s salary would result in about $50MM in guaranteed salaries for five roster spots. From there, the Knicks could go a number of ways in filling out their roster.

If we assume the team picks up Robinson’s option and keeps its two first-round picks while waiving or renouncing everyone else, that’d result in nearly $52MM in cap space. Adding Rose’s cap hold would bring that cap room projection down to $42.5MM; adding Noel’s cap hold would reduce it to about $37.5MM, and so on. Trading one or both of their first-round picks could slightly increase the team’s space.

Essentially, even if the Knicks do want to try to bring back two or three of their free agents, they’ll be able to generate enough cap room for a maximum-salary contract or close to it. It’s a safe bet they’ll operate under the cap this offseason rather than over it.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Randle’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 31.
  2. Robinson will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
  3. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks

July 13th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Mavericks acquired Kristaps Porzingis from New York in 2019, they envisioned him as half of a superstar duo alongside Luka Doncic for the next decade. But Porzingis, who flashed star potential in his early years with the Knicks, has plateaued in recent years as ongoing injury problems and his lack of defensive versatility have limited his ability to make a huge on-court impact.

Without a reliable go-to second option in the playoffs – where Porzingis averaged just 13.1 PPG and 5.4 RPG – the Mavs have been unable to break through so far, despite Doncic giving the Clippers all they could handle in the first round for two straight years (including 35.7 PPG and 10.3 APG in Dallas’ seven-game series loss this spring).

Strengthening the supporting cast around Doncic will be the primary goal going forward for the new-look front office, which includes longtime Nike executive Nico Harrison as Dallas’ new general manager. Harrison stepped in following the departure of veteran executive Donnie Nelson.

Meanwhile, it’ll be up to new head coach Jason Kidd to get the most of out the Mavs’ roster. Kidd’s two previous stints running the show in Brooklyn and Milwaukee were up and down, and he’ll have big shoes to fill in replacing Rick Carlisle, who was the NBA’s third longest-tenured head coach. But there’s optimism that Kidd has learned from past mistakes and – as a Hall-of-Fame point guard himself – will be a good mentor for Doncic.

The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:

The 2021/22 season will likely be the last time for the next 10 or 15 years that Doncic is earning less than the maximum salary, so it would be a good time for the Mavericks to take advantage of their financial flexibility. Besides Porzingis, no one on the roster is currently on the books for more than about $11MM next season.

Unfortunately, the Porzingis contract is an issue. He’ll earn $31.65MM in ’21/22 and a total of $101.5MM over the next three seasons, and he hasn’t lived up to that salary so far. Trading him is an option, but the Mavs will be loath to sell low on the 25-year-old rather than hoping for better injury luck going forward, which might allow Porzingis to rebuild his value.

The contract situations of Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. will also compromise the Mavs’ offseason flexibility. Richardson had a somewhat underwhelming first year in Dallas and now seems like a good bet to pick up his $11.6MM player option, cutting into the team’s potential cap room. And if the Mavs want to re-sign Hardaway, an unrestricted free agent, they may end up without any cap room at all, instead operating over the cap and gaining access to the full mid-level exception.

Even if the Mavs, who have traded away both of their 2021 draft picks, can add a solid rotation player with the MLE, they likely won’t be satisfied with simply running back a similar group next season, so I’d expect them to be active on the trade market. Even if a favorable Porzingis deal doesn’t materialize, other veterans – including Dwight Powell and Trey Burke – could be shopped.

Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are terrific bargains for the time being, but are entering contract years and will get more expensive in 2022. If Dallas isn’t able to lock them up to team-friendly extensions this year and isn’t confident in its ability to re-sign them to reasonable deals in unrestricted free agency, the idea of trading them should at least be considered.

The Mavs will also have to reassess 2020 draftees Josh Green and Tyrell Terry, neither of whom had a great rookie season. Their value has dropped, so they may not be especially useful trade chips, in which case Dallas will have to focus on developing them into useful role players.

Perhaps the simplest move of the Mavs’ offseason will be signing Doncic to a maximum-salary rookie scale extension that projects to pay him north of $200MM over five seasons. Ideally, Dallas would avoid adding a fifth-year player option to that deal, but if Doncic insists on it, the club will have to relent.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Luka Doncic (rookie scale)
  • Jalen Brunson (veteran)
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (veteran)
  • Maxi Kleber (veteran)
  • Dwight Powell (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume Brunson is retained (a safe bet) and Richardson opts in, that increases the Mavs’ guarantees to nearly $87MM for 10 roster spots. Letting everyone else walk would leave Dallas with upwards of $24MM in cap room.

However, if Hardaway re-signs at a number in the neighborhood of his previous salary ($18.98MM), that cap space essentially goes away, and Dallas will be operating over the cap. The team’s outlook could change if it adds or subtracts salary in trades or if Hardaway wants to play elsewhere. For now though, my working assumption is that the team will try to re-sign the free agent wing and will use its full mid-level rather than dipping under the cap.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
  • Trade exception: $1,678,854

Footnotes

  1. Brunson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  2. Melli has reached a contract agreement with Italian team Olimpia Milano. The Mavericks could still make the procedural move of tendering him a qualifying offer if they want to retain matching rights in the event of his return to the NBA.
  3. These are projected values. If the Mavericks decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exception and would instead gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

July 12th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After an injury-plagued 2019/20 season in which they barely sneaked into the Western Conference playoffs, the Trail Blazers entered the ’20/21 campaign with loftier goals. Portland added Robert Covington and Derrick Jones on the wing and was counting on the frontcourt duo of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins to get healthy and help complement the team’s star backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

However, injuries continued to be a problem for Nurkic, who missed half the season, and for Collins, who missed the entire year. And while Covington meshed well with the current core, Jones didn’t have the impact the Blazers had hoped for, falling out of the rotation in the second half.

President of basketball operations Neil Olshey added some midseason reinforcements by acquiring Norman Powell from Toronto, but it wasn’t enough to make a serious playoff run. Portland was eliminated from the postseason in the first round by a shorthanded Nuggets squad, spelling the end of Terry Stotts‘ tenure as the club’s head coach.

The offseason has gotten off to a shaky start in Portland. There are questions about whether Lillard’s loyalty to the franchise might start wavering after what he called the most frustrating season of his career, and the Blazers came under fire for hiring Chauncey Billups as their new head coach in light of the sexual assault allegations he faced in 1997.

The Blazers said they investigated the incident and came away confident that Billups hadn’t engaged in any wrongdoing, but their caginess and lack of transparency left many fans with a bad taste. Olshey and Billups may have some work to do to ensure that both Lillard and those fans feel comfortable moving forward with the franchise.

The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan:

The Blazers will be capped out even before attempting to re-sign Powell, all but eliminating free agency as a viable path for pursuing roster upgrades. The team also doesn’t have either of its 2021 draft picks, having traded away its first-rounder last year for Covington and its second-rounder two years ago for Rodney Hood.

That leaves the trade market as Olshey’s best bet for reshaping the roster.

Lillard is, of course, Portland’s best trade chip, but the team won’t move the All-NBA point guard unless he expresses a desire to leave. Lillard has long been loyal to the Blazers and still has four years left on his contract, so I wouldn’t expect him to force his way out this summer — it’s not impossible, but I imagine he’ll want to at least see what Billups brings to the team before making any major decisions.

If Lillard is off the table, that leaves McCollum and Nurkic as two potential major trade chips for the Blazers. Olshey has long insisted he doesn’t want to break up Portland’s high-scoring backcourt duo, but trading McCollum for an impact forward or big man would certainly help balance the roster. It’s unclear how high McCollum’s value will be on the trade market though, since he has $100MM left on his contract and will be entering his age-30 season.

Nurkic, meanwhile, has played solid two-way basketball in the middle in the past, but leg injuries have limited his effectiveness. The veteran center also dropped hints at the end of the season that he didn’t necessarily envision a long-term future for himself in Portland. While his value isn’t as high as it would’ve been two years ago, his $12MM expiring salary would certainly be movable. He’d even have positive value if he’s back to full health.

No other players on the Blazers’ roster should be untouchable, though Covington is on a team-friendly deal and the club may still be high on young players like Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little, despite their up-and-down development.

In free agency, re-signing Powell should be a priority, especially if the Blazers make a trade involving McCollum. Portland gave up a productive and controllable rotation player in Gary Trent Jr. to acquire Powell and won’t want to lose him for nothing.

Collins once looked like a long-term keeper, but he has undergone three surgeries on his foot in the last year. It’s possible he’ll be back, but it would have to be at a bargain rate. Portland may not even tender him a qualifying offer.

Role players like Carmelo Anthony and Enes Kanter will also be free agents and seem to enjoy playing for the Blazers. If Lillard remains in Portland, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stick around too.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jusuf Nurkic ($8,000,000) 2
  • Total: $1,824,003

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Anfernee Simons (rookie scale)
  • Robert Covington (veteran)
  • Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

It’s a safe bet that the Blazers will guarantee Nurkic’s salary for 2021/22, and Jones seems likely to opt in. Those moves would bring Portland’s total guaranteed commitments to about $115.5MM for eight players, pushing team salary over the cap. If they re-sign Powell, the Blazers may find themselves in luxury tax territory again next season.

For now, we’re assuming Portland will have its full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception available, but that could change if team salary creeps into the $130-135MM range (or higher).

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
  • Trade exception: $1,737,145
  • Trade exception: $1,663,861
  • Trade exception: $661,655

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Lillard’s salary will be 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Nurkic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
  3. Powell’s decision is reportedly due by July 22.
  4. Jones’ decision is reportedly due by July 28.
  5. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Leaf is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  6. The cap hold for Swanigan remains on the Trail Blazers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal. The Blazers also can’t offer Swanigan a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  7. These are projected values. If the Trail Blazers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

July 9th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Just about everything went right for the Heat during the summer restart in the Walt Disney World bubble last summer. Having entered the playoffs as a No. 5 seed in the East, Miami won three consecutive series as the road team, then came within two wins of a championship before falling to the Lakers.

The Heat brought back a pretty similar roster in 2020/21, aiming to finish higher in the standings and make another deep playoff run. But health issues limited the team’s ability to build much momentum during the regular season, and the departures of some key role players (such as Jae Crowder) – along with underwhelming or nonexistent contributions from new additions (including Victor Oladipo) – were major factors in Miami’s lack of postseason success.

With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo locked up for multiple seasons, the Heat have a solid All-Star duo to build around, but president of basketball operations Pat Riley may consider making significant roster changes around that duo after Miami became the only one of this year’s 16 playoff teams not to win a single game in the postseason.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan:

The Heat enter the offseason with only five players under contract: Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. That gives the team some flexibility to go in multiple directions.

A year ago, the Heat had the ability to create some cap room, but instead chose to re-sign several of their own free agents, operate over the cap, and use the mid-level exception to try to add a role player or two. It’s possible Miami will go that route again this summer.

The team options for Goran Dragic ($19MM+) and Andre Iguodala ($15MM) may be a little higher than the club would like, but both players could be re-signed even if their options are declined, and Miami would have the ability to bring back some combination of Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica too. Dewayne Dedmon could also be re-signed, though the Heat would have to use an exception to do so if he’s seeking more than the minimum, since he’ll only have Non-Bird rights.

On the other hand, if the Heat aren’t convinced that running it back again is a good play, they could let most of those free agents walk and try their luck on the open market — they’d have $20MM+ in cap room even if they retained the modest cap holds for Nunn and Robinson (they could go over the cap to re-sign those two RFAs after using their cap space).

Still, considering this year’s free agent class is somewhat underwhelming and $20MM likely wouldn’t get them a star-caliber player, I’d expect the Heat to operate over the cap and try to land an impact player on the trade market.

Exercising Dragic’s or Iguodala’s team option would give the Heat a sizeable expiring contract to use for salary-matching (they could pick up both options if needed), and while their ability to trade future first-round picks is somewhat limited, they have valuable young players – such as Herro and Achiuwa – who could be dangled as trade chips.

One potential target to keep an eye on is Kyle Lowry, who is close friends with Butler. The Heat pursued Lowry at the March trade deadline, but were reportedly unwilling to part with Herro to make a deal happen. The Heat could theoretically clear enough cap room to make him a strong offer, so if Lowry wants to team up with Butler, the Raptors’ leverage in sign-and-trade talks would decrease. That would allow Miami to negotiate more favorable trade terms and hang onto Herro, possibly for another trade down the road.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jimmy Butler (veteran)
  • KZ Okpala (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

As noted above, the Heat could create over $20MM+ in cap room by declining all their team options and renouncing all their free agents except Nunn and Robinson. Renouncing Nunn and Robinson would get the team up to $28MM+ in cap space.

But unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to clear that space, I don’t see Miami giving up its rights to so many useful players. The bet here is that the Heat operate as an over-the-cap team and bring back a few of their own free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Adebayo’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Heat for two seasons, Vincent is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decided to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

July 8th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Having made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020, the Celtics entered the 2020/21 season looking to make it at least that far again. But things never quite gelled for this year’s iteration of the C’s, as injuries, COVID-19 issues, and inconsistent on-court production were all major factors in a disappointing year.

The Celtics still made the playoffs, but it took a play-in win to get there after the team finished with an underwhelming .500 record (36-36). And Boston’s postseason run was short-lived, as the club was unceremoniously dispatched by Brooklyn in the first round.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still look like capable cornerstones on a future title contender, but the Celtics will need to find a way to surround them with more reliable complementary pieces. That task will fall to Brad Stevens, who made the move from the sidelines to the front office after longtime president of basketball operations Danny Ainge stepped down.

In his first month on the job, Stevens wasted no time in completing a pair of major moves, hiring Ime Udoka to replace him as Boston’s head coach and sending Kemba Walker and a first-round pick to Oklahoma City for Al Horford and Moses Brown in a trade that will create some added financial flexibility for the franchise over the next two seasons.

The Celtics’ Offseason Plan:

Moving Walker’s oversized contract should help the Celtics avoid a significant tax bill in 2021/22, but replacing him with Horford doesn’t really move the needle for the team on the court. More roster moves will be necessary to make Boston a legitimate contender.

Besides the contracts for Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart, all of which are good values, the Celtics’ guaranteed salaries fall into two groups: veteran big men who are probably overpaid (Horford and Tristan Thompson, earning a combined $37MM), and inexpensive role players still on their rookie deals (Romeo Langford, Robert Williams, Aaron Nesmith, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Carsen Edwards).

If the Celtics hope to increase their ceiling, they’ll need to either cobble together a reliable rotation from those pieces or use them to trade for rotation players. It may be time to start moving on from some of those former first-round picks who haven’t developed like the team has hoped. Two or three of those players could be keepers – Pritchard had an especially promising rookie season – but Boston should be willing to deal several of the others — having not drafted them himself, Stevens may not feel as attached to them as Ainge did.

Meanwhile, Horford’s contract is only partially guaranteed beyond this season and Thompson’s deal is expiring, so both players are movable, even if they don’t have positive value. The Celtics also have a handful of trade exceptions that could be useful, including one worth $11MM.

In free agency, figuring out a new deal with Evan Fournier figures to be a top priority. If you take into account the two second-round picks the Celtics sent the Hornets last offseason to generate the massive trade exception later used to take on Fournier, the cost to acquire him essentially worked out to four second-rounders. The organization won’t want to let him walk for nothing after paying that price.

The Celtics also figure to discuss contract extensions with Smart and Robert Williams, both of whom are entering the final year of their contracts. Smart, who should have a bigger role with Walker gone, may have more leverage to negotiate a lucrative new deal than Williams, who could find himself battling for minutes in a crowded frontcourt. Of course, if Stevens wants to take another big swing on the trade market for a point guard, Smart may have to be included in Boston’s offer.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jabari Parker ($2,283,034) 2
  • Moses Brown ($1,201,593)
  • Total: $3,484,627

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Robert Williams (rookie scale)
  • Carsen Edwards (veteran)
  • Al Horford (veteran)
  • Marcus Smart (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Celtics will certainly be over the cap this summer. Whether or not they go over the luxury tax line depends on whether Fournier returns and whether the team cuts costs in trades. If we assume Fournier re-signs at a reasonable rate (perhaps $15MM), Boston would need to shed some salary elsewhere to stay out of the tax.

Without Fournier, the Celtics may have enough breathing room to use the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception. But my bet for now is that Fournier will be back and that the team will be limited to the taxpayer MLE.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4
  • Trade exception: $11,050,000
  • Trade exception: $6,879,100
  • Trade exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,767,000
  • Trade exception: $370,564
  • Trade exception: $343,873

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Tatum’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Parker’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100K) after July 31.
  3. Because they have been on two-way contracts with the Celtics for two seasons, Fall and Waters are eligible for standard minimum-salary qualifying offers.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Celtics stay far enough below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

July 7th, 2021 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

The rebuilding Grizzlies, who traded longtime cornerstones Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in 2019, exceeded expectations in ’19/20. Rather than taking a step back with a younger roster, Memphis had its best season in three years, ultimately falling just short of a playoff spot in the Disney bubble by virtue of losing a play-in game to Portland.

Some regression was expected in 2020/21, but no one told Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. Despite dealing with some health issues – presumed second option Jaren Jackson Jr. was limited to just 11 games due to a knee injury – Memphis took another step forward, finishing the season with a 38-34 record in a tough Western Conference and then winning play-in games over San Antonio and Golden State to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

In theory, continued improvement from Morant, who turns 22 next month, and a full season of good health from Jackson should make the Grizzlies even more dangerous next season. But growth isn’t always linear, and it feels like Memphis probably needs to add some reinforcements to the current group to increase its ceiling. Fortunately, the team is in a pretty good position to do just that.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan:

Of the 17 players who finished the season under contract in Memphis, 14 remain under contract for next season, and the team can increase that number to 15 by exercising its option on Justise Winslow. The only free agents are Tim Frazier and Killian Tillie, neither of whom was a major contributor in 2020/21.

That means the Grizzlies are well-positioned to run it back with the current group, perhaps just adding another young player with the No. 17 overall pick and signing one veteran free agent to fill out the roster.

While the club could certainly go in that direction, I’d expect Zack Kleiman and his front office to be a little more aggressive in pursuing upgrades. The Grizzlies are loaded at certain positions and don’t have any bad contracts on their books, meaning they’re in a good spot to explore trades that consolidate their depth and land them a starting-caliber player.

That doesn’t mean I expect the Grizzlies to be the frontrunner for a star like Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal should they become available (though Beal would be a great fit). Acquiring a player of that caliber would likely involve surrendering several first-round picks, and I’m not sure Memphis is ready to take that step, especially if the player in question isn’t a lock to stick around long-term.

However, the Grizzlies certainly have the ammo to go after a second- or third-tier trade candidate — Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, and/or Xavier Tillman, among others, could be included in an offer for such a player. And Memphis, which controls Utah’s 2022 first-round pick (top-six protected) and Golden State’s 2024 first-round selection (top-four protected), could afford to give up one or two first-rounders.

While none of their own key players are eligible for free agency, the Grizzlies’ decision on Winslow will be an interesting one. The team gave up a couple solid trade chips (Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder) and took on a pair of unfavorable contracts (Dion Waiters and Gorgui Dieng) at the 2020 trade deadline in order to acquire Winslow, but he hasn’t given them much so far, playing just 26 underwhelming games in Memphis since that trade.

If the Grizzlies still believe in Winslow, exercising his $13MM option makes sense. The team has no cap concerns to worry about, and if things don’t work out with Winslow, the downside is minimal, since he’ll come off the books in a year. Still, if Memphis’ faith in the former lottery pick is wavering, declining the option may be the right move — doing so would help create a chunk of cap room that could be used on a player more capable of making an impact in 2021/22.

The Grizzlies’ other important offseason decision will be on Jackson, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension. After a season essentially lost to injury, the club may want to see more from the former No. 4 overall pick before committing to a lucrative, long-term deal. But if he’s willing to accept a relatively team-friendly extension, it could be a good buy-low opportunity for Memphis before JJJ truly breaks out.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jontay Porter ($1,650,000) 1
  • Total: $1,650,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 17 overall pick ($3,053,760)
  • No. 51 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,053,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Grayson Allen (rookie scale)
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (rookie scale)
  • Kyle Anderson (veteran)
  • Tyus Jones (veteran)
  • Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
  • Justise Winslow (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If the Grizzlies waive Porter and keep their first-round pick, they’ll have about $88MM in commitments for 13 players. Ultimately then, their cap outlook figures to come down to their decision on Winslow.

Should Memphis pick up Winslow’s option, the team would still have a little cap room, but the difference between that space and the full mid-level exception for over-the-cap teams would be marginal, and the team may just decide to operate over the cap. Turning down Winslow’s option, on the other hand, could help the Grizzlies generate $24MM+ in cap space, making them a potential player for some of the top free agents in this year’s class.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Porter’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 18.
  2. The cap hold for Dorsey remains on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. It can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. This is a projected value. If the Grizzlies operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

July 6th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Despite enduring plenty of Bradley Beal trade speculation before and during the 2020/21 season, the Wizards never wavered on their stated plan to build around Beal. And the All-Star guard didn’t force the team’s hand by asking to be dealt, even after a dismal first two-thirds of the season that saw Washington get off to a 17-32 start.

Still, with the Wizards out of the playoff – and play-in – picture in early April, it looked like it might just be a matter of time until the team had to start seriously considering major offseason changes to the roster, the coaching staff, and even the front office. But a 17-6 finish to the regular season and a win in their second play-in game gave the Wizards a glimmer of hope heading into the summer, even if their playoff run was short-lived.

That run in April and May wasn’t enough to save Scott Brooks‘ job, however. The Wizards and their head coach were unable to agree to terms on a new contract, leaving the team in the market for a new coach, with Wes Unseld Jr. and Jamahl Mosley among a handful of finalists.

As for whether the team’s second-half success was enough to stave off major front office and roster changes, that remains to be seen. But for now, it looks like the plan is to hope a new coach and some tweaks to the roster will help buoy a core group led by Beal and Russell Westbrook to greater heights in 2021/22.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

As long as Beal and Westbrook remain on the Wizards’ books, the team’s options for revamping the roster around them are somewhat limited. The star duo is earning a combined $78MM in 2021/22, over two-thirds of the projected $112MM cap.

Washington’s next two highest salaries belong to Davis Bertans ($16MM) and Thomas Bryant ($8.67MM), who would each likely be expendable in the right trade this offseason. Bertans’ contract, which still has four years on it, would be trickier to move than Bryant’s expiring deal.

It’ll be interesting to see whether Bryant is in the Wizards’ plans going forward — he missed nearly all of the 2020/21 season with an ACL tear and may not be back to 100% by the fall. Daniel Gafford, who is on a minimum-salary contract, emerged as a legitimate option at the five in the spring, but the team will need at least one more center with Alex Len and Robin Lopez facing free agency.

Besides Len and Lopez, the Wizards will have to make decisions on free agent guards Ish Smith, Raul Neto, and Garrison Mathews. All played roles in 2020/21 and would be worthwhile investments as long as their price tags remain modest.

However, re-signing more than one of their free agents, hanging onto their first-round pick, and not dumping any contracts in trades could put the Wizards’ team salary pretty close to the tax line, preventing the team from making use of its full mid-level exception. Without that mid-level, Washington’s best hope of upgrading its roster will be on the trade market, with Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, the No. 15 pick, and future first-rounders among the club’s most appealing assets.

It will be crucial this offseason to get a clear sense of where Beal stands. If the Wizards believe they can convince him to sign a contract extension this summer, or re-up with the team in 2022, trading some of those young players and draft assets for a win-now piece might make sense. If Washington feels Beal’s commitment to D.C. isn’t iron-clad, hanging onto those assets – and potentially even shopping Beal before he reaches free agency – may be the right play.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 15 overall pick ($3,383,640)
  • Total: $3,383,640

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chandler Hutchison (rookie scale)
  • Bradley Beal (veteran)
  • Thomas Bryant (veteran)
  • Daniel Gafford (veteran)
  • Russell Westbrook (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Wizards’ seven guaranteed contracts, Gafford’s non-guaranteed salary, and the No. 15 pick add up to approximately $121MM in commitments for nine roster spots. That puts Washington’s team salary well over the cap.

The tax line projects to be in the $137MM range for 2021/22. Depending on how they fill out the back end of their roster, the Wizards could have just enough flexibility to make use of the full mid-level exception. If they take on any additional salary in trades or re-sign certain free agents, they’ll likely be limited to the taxpayer MLE.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 4
  • Trade exception: $2,161,920
  • Trade exception: $1,000,000

Footnotes

  1. Gill’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 7.
  2. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Wizards for two seasons, Mathews is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  3. The cap holds for these players remain on the Wizards’ books from a prior season because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. If the Wizards approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

July 5th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After bottoming out during the 2019/20 season, the Warriors appeared well-positioned to return to contention in the Western Conference in ’20/21. They were getting healthy and were poised to land a top young talent with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.

However, just hours before the 2020 draft got underway, word broke that Klay Thompson had suffered another major leg injury — after tearing his ACL in June 2019, the veteran sharpshooter tore his Achilles in November 2020.

It was a brutal setback for Golden State and put a major dent in the team’s plans of getting back into the title mix. Given the top-heavy construction of the roster, there simply wasn’t enough depth to make up for the loss of a two-way impact player like Thompson, whose defensive ability on the wing were missed nearly as much as his floor-spacing and shot-making contributions on offense.

A superhuman effort from Stephen Curry nearly sent the Warriors to the postseason anyway. Ultimately though, the team lost two play-in games and finished in the lottery for a second straight season. Golden State will once again enter the offseason with the opportunity to add some young talent to the roster in the draft, while waiting for Thompson to finish rehabbing a major injury.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan:

Curry is 33 years old; Thompson and Draymond Green are 31. The Warriors can’t count on those stars – who helped earn the team three titles during the 2010s – to continue producing at their current or previous levels indefinitely. That puts the team in an awkward spot.

In James Wiseman and a pair of lottery picks, Golden State has the pieces to put together a tantalizing trade package for a veteran star whose timeline would match up better with that of Curry, Thompson, and Green. However, the Warriors have seen first-hand during the last two years how quickly a major injury or two can derail a team’s season, making the prospect of going all-in with the current core a little risky.

If the Dubs were to take a more patient approach, they could potentially develop a next generation of impact players who could help smoothly transition from the Splash Brothers era into whatever comes next, ensuring Golden State remains a playoff team for years to come. But if those youngsters aren’t ready to contribute right away, the team risks wasting away Curry’s last few prime years without getting back to the Finals.

It’s a predicament without an easy solution. If there were a star player in his early- or mid-20s on the trade market, the Warriors could feel confident trading the farm and counting on that player to be the cornerstone for the next era of Bay Area basketball. But the only player who really comes close to fitting that bill is Ben Simmons. Are the Warriors ready to put all their eggs into the Simmons basket following his playoff collapse? Would the win-now Sixers even be interested in the sort of package Golden State could offer?

There’s a middle ground here — a deal in which the Warriors give up one or two of Wiseman and the lottery picks for a win-now piece could make the team a title contender without going all-in. And perhaps there are players besides Simmons who will emerge as logical trade targets for the franchise. Pascal Siakam‘s name has popped up in at least one rumor.

It’ll be fascinating to see which direction the Warriors go with Wiseman and those draft picks, but there are other issues for the team to address this offseason too. If the club doesn’t re-sign Kelly Oubre, getting something back in a sign-and-trade would be nice. Determining whether to use the taxpayer mid-level exception will come down to how much more money ownership is willing to add to its tax bill now that Golden State is a repeater team.

And, of course, the Warriors will have to determine whether they feel comfortable offering Curry a maximum-salary extension before he reaches free agency in 2022. A four-year max extension would pay him nearly $54MM(!) per year for his age 34-37 seasons.

As good as Curry was this past season, there’s a very real chance that deal would turn into a liability before it’s over — the 2025/26 cap hit would be a staggering $59.6MM. The organization may decide the risk is worth it, given Curry’s résumé, but if he’s willing to take a discount or accept a deal that’s not fully guaranteed on the back end, it would increase the Warriors’ long-term flexibility.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall pick ($5,466,360)
  • No. 14 overall pick ($3,562,080)
  • Total: $9,028,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Stephen Curry (veteran)
  • Kevon Looney (veteran)
  • Eric Paschall (veteran)
  • Alen Smailagic (veteran)
  • Andrew Wiggins (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If they hang onto their players on guaranteed contracts and their two lottery picks, the Warriors will be committed to over $169MM in salary for 11 players.

While we expect a certain amount of offseason roster shuffling that could reduce team salary to some extent, the idea that Golden State will get below the cap – or even below the luxury tax line (projected to be in the $136-137MM range) – seems pretty far-fetched. Count on the Warriors to have another big tax bill in 2021/22.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 7
  • Trade exception: $2,250,000
  • Trade exception: $1,824,003

Footnotes

  1. Looney exercised his player option for 2021/22.
  2. Payton’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($659,004) after August 11.
  3. Lee’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($500,000) after August 15.
  4. Smailagic’s salary becomes guaranteed after August 6.
  5. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Bell is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  6. The cap holds for these players remain on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

July 2nd, 2021 at 2:26pm CST by Luke Adams

The Pacers were a beacon of regular-season consistency for most of the 2010s. Beginning in 2011/12, they finished below .500 just once in nine years, making the playoffs in eight of those seasons.

However, Indiana’s postseason runs were generally short-lived. The team was eliminated in the first round five straight times from 2016-20 and was just 3-16 in the playoffs during head coach Nate McMillan‘s tenure, resulting in McMillan’s ouster prior to the 2020/21 campaign.

There was optimism entering the season that new head coach Nate Bjorkgren and two-time All-Star Victor Oladipo – nearly two years removed from a brutal leg injury – could lead the Pacers to greater heights. Instead, injuries to Oladipo and several other key players derailed Indiana’s year, and Bjorkgren alienated Pacers players and coaches alike. Oladipo was traded during the season and Bjorkgren was dismissed after just one year.

Indiana still had enough talent to make the play-in tournament in May, and there’s reason to believe that better injury luck and the influence of new head coach Rick Carlisle could produce far better results in 2021/22. If not, the roster could be in line for a major overhaul.

The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:

Most of the Pacers’ starters and rotation players are under contract for the 2021/22 season, but there are a pair of notable exceptions who will be unrestricted free agents.

T.J. McConnell played an increased role during his second season in Indiana, and responded by establishing career-best marks in PPG (8.6), APG (6.6), and FG% (55.9%). The 29-year-old is a career backup who is never a threat to score 40 points in a game (his career high is 23), but his contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a talented play-maker and hard-nosed defender, and the Pacers were better both offensively and defensively when he was on the court this year.

Doug McDermott is the team’s other key unrestricted free agent. He’s considered a three-point specialist, and he certainly does that well, having knocked down 41.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc during his three years with the Pacers. But he has also shown that he’s more than just a catch-and-shoot player, developing new ways to score off the dribble and inside the arc — his 13.6 PPG and .532 FG% in 2020/21 were easily career highs.

The Pacers enter the offseason over the cap, so re-signing both McConnell and McDermott won’t be simple, but Carlisle singled out both players as priorities during his introductory press conference this week.

Indiana could create some extra cap flexibility to bring those free agents back by being active on the trade market. While it remains to be seen whether this will be the year that the team finally decides to break up the frontcourt duo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, there are other trade candidates on the roster.

Jeremy Lamb, who is on an expiring deal, and Aaron Holiday, who has long been mentioned in trade rumors, are potential candidates to be on the move. The No. 13 pick in this year’s draft would be an appealing chip if Indiana doesn’t want to bring in a rookie, but the cost certainty of that pick would help balance some of the higher-priced players on the roster.

T.J. Warren is also entering the final year of his contract, but seems less likely to be dealt unless the Pacers don’t expect him to re-sign in 2022. If any of the team’s starters are dealt, it would likely only be for an upgrade. The Pacers reportedly offered Malcolm Brogdon in a deal for Ben Simmons, for instance.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall pick ($3,749,520)
  • No. 54 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 60 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,749,520

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Aaron Holiday (rookie scale)
  • Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
  • Jeremy Lamb (veteran)
  • Caris LeVert (veteran)
  • Edmond Sumner (veteran)
  • Myles Turner (veteran)
  • T.J. Warren (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Pacers will begin the offseason operating above the cap and under the tax, with nearly $116MM in guaranteed salaries on their books. It’s possible the team could approach luxury-tax territory, losing access to the full mid-level exception, but this organization isn’t one I’d expect to pay tax penalties unless its roster is clearly capable of winning a championship. I don’t think the current group qualifies.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $4,796,296
  • Trade exception: $2,808,844

Footnotes

  1. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 7.
  2. These are projected values. If the Pacers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

June 30th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

After missing the postseason for the first time in 23 years in 2019/20, the Spurs didn’t exactly bounce back with a vengeance in ’20/21. Their 33-39 record was just a half-game improvement over the year before, and while San Antonio earned a spot in the play-in tournament, the team was quickly eliminated by Memphis, missing the playoffs two years in a row for the first time in franchise history.

San Antonio’s struggles can be traced back to an inability to maximize the return for All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard in 2018. That wasn’t entirely the team’s fault – Leonard’s injury situation and his discontent with the organization hurt his value – but it was a problem.

The Spurs haven’t been bad enough in recent years to land high in the lottery and potentially draft a new franchise player. As a result, the club that went from David Robinson to Tim Duncan to Leonard now lacks a cornerstone for its next phase.

Still, given where the Spurs have drafted in recent years, there’s plenty of promising young talent on the roster, including Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, and Devin Vassell, so it’s not as if the cupboards are totally bare going forward. San Antonio still has one of the league’s better developmental programs, and as long as those youngsters continue to improve, it shouldn’t be much longer until the team is back in the postseason.

The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:

With the exception of the occasional major move – such as the Leonard trade in 2018 or the signing of LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015 – the Spurs can rarely be counted on for action-packed offseasons that feature a bunch of roster turnover. Their general preference is to identify guys they like and then to keep re-signing them, favoring continuity and development over constantly seeking out potential upgrades.

Having said that, if the Spurs do want to significantly turn over their roster, this would be the time to do it. Aldridge departed earlier this year, highly-paid veterans DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills are among the team’s five unrestricted free agents, and the club currently has less than $57MM in guaranteed salary on its books for 2021/22.

While the opportunity is there, I wouldn’t expect the Spurs to renounce all their vets to create the cap room necessary to make a run for a top restricted free agent such as John Collins. They could surprise me, but it just doesn’t feel like their M.O.

There are rumors that DeRozan may look to sign elsewhere, however. In that case, perhaps the Spurs focus on re-signing Mills and Gay. If the team can bring back that duo for a combined 2021/22 cap hit of about $25-30MM, it would still leave enough room to make a play at a second- or third-tier free agent or two.

Lauri Markkanen would be an intriguing target as a reclamation project, since the former lottery pick has seen his value dip a little in Chicago. Josh Hart and Bruce Brown also strike me as Spurs-type players.

However, all of those guys are restricted free agents, so San Antonio would either have to be aggressive with an offer sheet, work out a sign-and-trade, or hope that the player’s current team is only lukewarm on bringing him back. That may be the case with Markkanen and the Bulls, but I imagine the Pelicans and Nets will prioritize Hart and Brown, respectively.

Kelly Olynyk, Otto Porter, JaMychal Green, and Kelly Oubre are among the unrestricted free agents I could envision as fits for the Spurs. Justise Winslow might also be an intriguing target if the Grizzlies don’t pick up his $13MM option.

Of course, the big question looming over the Spurs is how much longer Gregg Popovich will patrol the team’s sidelines. A year or two ago, there was speculation that the NBA’s longest-tenured head coach would retire after coaching Team USA at the 2020 Olympics. The Tokyo games have since been pushed back a year and there’s still no indication that Popovich plans to call it career once they conclude. But he’s 72 years old, so it’s hard to imagine his run as the Spurs’ coach will last too much longer.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 12 overall pick ($3,946,800)
  • No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,946,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonnie Walker (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Taking into account the cap hold for their lottery pick, the Spurs have about $61MM committed to nine roster spots, putting them in position to open up a serious chunk of cap room. However, they also have nearly double that amount in options, non-guaranteed salary, and free agent cap holds, meaning they could very well operate as an over-the-cap team to start the offseason.

The Spurs’ decision on DeRozan may dictate whether or not they dip below the cap. If he re-signs at a salary close to this season’s $27.7MM figure, staying over the cap probably makes sense, but if he walks for nothing, the club might as well take advantage of its financial flexibility.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 7

Footnotes

  1. Eubanks’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 20.
  2. Jeffries will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Spurs for two seasons, Weatherspoon is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. This is a projected value. DeRozan’s cap hit will be either the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service or $41,609,963 (whichever is lesser).
  5. The cap holds for these players remain on the Spurs’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  6. The 26th overall pick in 2015, Milutinov has yet to sign his rookie scale contract. His cap hold will remain on the Spurs’ books unless the team receives permission to remove it, which would ensure Milutinov won’t be signed in 2021/22.
  7. This is a projected value. If the Spurs operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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