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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

June 29th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

At the end of the 2019/20 season, few NBA franchises appeared to be in a worse spot than the Hornets, who won just 23 games, missed the playoffs for a fourth straight seasons, and didn’t have any young players with legitimate star upside on their roster.

The Hornets didn’t snap their playoff drought in 2021, but a year later, their outlook is considerably brighter. That turnaround can be attributed in large part to nailing the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft. LaMelo Ball became the NBA’s Rookie of the Year and looks like the best bet of any 2020 draftee to eventually make an All-Star team.

Charlotte also added forward Gordon Hayward on a four-year, $120MM contract during 2020’s free agent period. The deal was widely viewed as an overpay, and it’s possible the Hornets will end up regretting it in a year or two. Still, it was an encouraging sign that the franchise was able to land one of the summer’s top free agents, beating out the Pacers and Knicks, among others.

Ball and Hayward both missed time due to injuries in 2020/21, but the club still earned a play-in spot in the East and has the flexibility to continue upgrading its roster this summer. The Hornets aren’t exactly legit contenders yet, but things in Charlotte don’t look as bleak as they did at this time last year.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan:

The Hornets will face important decisions on free agent guards Malik Monk and Devonte’ Graham, both of whom are eligible for qualifying offers that would make them restricted FAs. Both Monk and Graham have value, and ideally Charlotte wouldn’t let them get away for nothing, but Ball’s emergence and Terry Rozier‘s impressive performance in 2020/21 have given the team some options. If Monk, for instance, needs to be renounced to open up some cap room, there’s enough backcourt depth on the roster to withstand the loss.

Besides addressing the backcourt, the Hornets will prioritize the center position. Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo are headed to unrestricted free agency, and while it’s possible the club will look to bring one of them back as a reserve on a modest contract, Charlotte will be aiming higher in its search for frontcourt help.

Richaun Holmes, Andre Drummond, and Nerlens Noel are among the players the Hornets could pursue in free agency. The trade market offers some intriguing options as well, including Pacers center Myles Turner, who has frequently been linked to Charlotte and could once again be on the trade block this offseason. Getting a player who can knock down threes like Turner would be great, but the Hornets really just need someone who can protect the basket on defense and be a rim-running partner for Ball on offense.

Rozier and Miles Bridges are the Hornets’ two most notable extension-eligible players. The team’s decision on Rozier may be tied to how Graham’s free agency plays out — if Graham returns, it would cast more uncertainty on Rozier’s long-term future with the franchise. Bridges, meanwhile, looks like a keeper on the wing, and I imagine Charlotte will try to sign him to an extension this offseason if the price is right.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 11 overall pick ($4,154,400)
  • No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 57 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,154,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Miles Bridges (rookie scale)
  • Caleb Martin (veteran)
  • Cody Martin (veteran)
  • Jalen McDaniels (veteran)
  • Terry Rozier (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Hornets will likely dip below the cap this offseason, especially if they don’t re-sign Monk, or bring him back on a salary far below his $16MM cap hold.

If Charlotte were to renounce Monk, bring back the three players with non-guaranteed salaries, and account for cap holds for Graham and the No. 11 pick, they could create more than $20MM in cap room. Waiving some of the non-guaranteed money would bump that figure up slightly, while re-signing Monk would cut into it.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed at some point in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  2. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed at some point in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  3. McDaniels’ salary becomes fully guaranteed at some point this summer (exact date TBD).
  4. This is a projected value. If the Hornets operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

June 28th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls overhauled both their front office and their coaching staff in 2020, replacing longtime basketball operations executives John Paxson and Gar Forman with Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley, who in turn replaced head coach Jim Boylen with Billy Donovan.

Despite the leadership changes, the Bulls didn’t turn over many spots on a roster that went 22-43 in 2019/20, so expectations for Chicago were modest entering ’20/21 — oddsmakers projected them to win no more than 30 games.

But the team aimed higher. Firmly in the play-in mix more than halfway through the season, the Bulls’ new top decision-makers decided to take a big swing, sending a pair of future first-round picks and former lottery selection Wendell Carter to Orlando in a trade for Nikola Vucevic.

The short-term results weren’t great. The Bulls, 19-24 at the time of the trade, failed to make any headway with Vucevic on the roster, finishing the season on a 12-17 run and missing out on a play-in spot. To make matters worse, the top-four protected 2021 pick the Bulls traded to the Magic in the blockbuster deadline deal landed at No. 8.

Still, the Bulls’ front office remains confident that the Vucevic acquisition will pay dividends going forward, once the All-Star center has a full offseason and training camp to get comfortable with his new team. Chicago will enter the 2021/22 season seeking its first playoff berth since 2017.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

With no first-round pick at their disposal, the Bulls will turn to free agency or the trade market to try address their point guard position, which has been an Achilles heel for the franchise since Derrick Rose‘s All-Star days.

The good news is that there’s no shortage of options available in free agency this summer — when we ranked our top 20 free agents at the start of June, seven players on our list were point guards. Some of those veterans, such as Chris Paul and Mike Conley, may end up simply returning to their current teams, but the Bulls have the cap flexibility to pursue the ones who will test the market, including perhaps Lonzo Ball, Dennis Schröder, and Spencer Dinwiddie.

The Bulls also face decisions on Lauri Markkanen, a restricted free agent, and Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky, whose salaries for 2021/22 are only partially guaranteed.

Young is a fine value at $14MM and Chicago should guarantee his contract, which would be movable even if he’s not in the team’s plans going forward. Markkanen and Satoransky seem less likely to return, though a sign-and-trade involving Markkanen is a possibility.

Finally, while Chicago doesn’t necessarily have to address the situation this offseason, LaVine’s contract is another storyline worth watching closely. He’s entering the final year of his deal and will be extension-eligible this offseason, but his maximum-salary extension (approximately $105MM over four years) is worth less than what he could expect as a free agent.

Assuming the Bulls have no plans to trade LaVine and he has no plans to accept that extension, there are two ways the situation could play out — the team could wait until he reaches free agency in 2022 to work out a new contract, or could renegotiate his 2021/22 salary in order to sign him to an extension worth more than his current four-year, $105MM max. A renegotiation, however, would require cap space that might be better spent on upgrades to the roster around LaVine.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Thaddeus Young ($8,190,000) 2
  • Tomas Satoransky ($6,000,000) 3
  • Total: $14,190,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 38 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Troy Brown (rookie scale)
  • Al-Farouq Aminu (veteran)
  • Zach LaVine (veteran)
  • Tomas Satoransky (veteran)
  • Nikola Vucevic (veteran)
  • Thaddeus Young (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Bulls could conceivably operate over or under the cap this offseason. For instance, if they want to guarantee Young’s salary, and perhaps re-sign free agents like Markkanen and Theis, an over-the-cap approach makes sense.

However, I expect the Bulls to seriously consider dipping below the cap instead. Even if they cut into their projected space by guaranteeing Young’s salary, they could create a little extra room under the cap by waiving and stretching Satoransky’s partial guarantee, or even by doing the same with Aminu. Clearing that cap room could be the most viable path to landing a point guard.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Aminu exercised his player option for 2021/22.
  2. Young’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  3. Satoransky’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  4. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Bulls for two seasons, Mokoka is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  5. This is a projected value. If the Bulls operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM), bi-annual exception ($3.7MM), and a trade exception ($2.5MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

June 26th, 2021 at 3:59pm CST by Eli Cohen

The Kings are searching for answers. This year, they extended their playoff drought to a 15th straight season, tied with the Clippers (1977-91) for the longest in NBA history. They also failed to move up in the lottery, meaning that – barring a trade – they will be picking ninth in this year’s draft. To make matters worse, Marvin Bagley, the team’s highest draft pick since 1989, came under fire this week for liking a tweet about getting him out of Sacramento.

It’s not all bad news, however. Point guard De’Aaron Fox took a star leap this season, averaging 25+ points per game for the first time in his career and becoming the driving force of the offense. Combo guard Tyrese Haliburton, taken with the 12th pick in last year’s draft, was a revelation, averaging 13 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 1.3 SPG while shooting above 40% from three in 30 MPG. His stellar play earned him a berth on the All-Rookie First Team. Richaun Holmes also had a breakout year, cementing himself as a bona fide NBA starting center. The team also committed to bringing back head coach Luke Walton after a strong showing of support from the players.

While the Kings finished the season under .500 once again, their winning percentage (.431) was tied for the second-highest since 2008. While that may be a modest accomplishment, it does at least give reasons for optimism, though it wasn’t a step up from last season and the Western Conference is only getting stronger around them.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan:

The Kings’ decisions will start with the draft, where they have the ninth and 39th overall picks, but there will be plenty of choices that must be made from there. General manager Monte McNair has said that the Kings will be aggressive this off-season, whether in the draft, free agency, or trade.

As far as trades go, there are three clear candidates: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Bagley.

Hield, at 28 years old, is the third-oldest player under contract in Sacramento and is coming off two successive seasons that were less productive than the one before them. He also doesn’t fit in a lineup with Fox and Haliburton, so if the Kings are looking to build around that backcourt pair, they would may have to either trade Hield or bring him off the bench, which isn’t easy to do with your second-highest paid player. Hield is still a high-level shooter who can put the ball on the floor, and is locked up on a long-term deal, which could prove attractive to teams looking to add shooting.

Barnes is on a descending contract over the next two seasons, and provides a good mix of defense and shot creation. The Kings would likely rather keep than deal him, as he fits nicely with the Fox/Haliburton pairing, but his continued presence is made more complicated by the unsolved puzzle of how the Kings build their frontcourt.

Bagley’s three seasons have been riddled with injuries, and even when healthy, he presents major question marks. Offensively, he’s more of a center than a power forward, but he’s not a good enough defender to anchor a defense. He showed the ability to make threes at a decent rate this season, hitting 34% on 2.5 attempts per game, and is a talented rebounder and athlete around the rim. Holmes helped cover for him defensively this year, but Holmes is a free agent, and the Kings may not be able to offer him enough to keep him in Sacramento long-term.

The Kings had the worst defense in the league last season, and if they’re unable to retain Holmes, it could get even worse, especially if they build around Bagley as their full-time center. There are a lot of interesting centers on the market this summer, but none are going to significantly change the trajectory of the team.

Bagley is also extension-eligible, and will be a free agent next summer, meaning the Kings have to decide how much they prioritize him. If they don’t want to invest in him long-term, packaging him with Hield, the ninth pick, or both, could be an enticing option for McNair, either as a draft-day trade up for a higher pick, or for a high-level prospect — the name Ben Simmons has been raised by some as a potential target, though the fit is questionable and it’s uncertain the Sixers would consider that enough of a return.

The other player who may figure into trade talks is guard Delon Wright. Wright is owed $8.5MM and will be an expiring contract. He brings an interesting blend of size, shooting and defense to either guard spot. The 29-year-old could help a playoff team off the bench, and could be useful in compiling salary in a trade for a non-star level player.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($4,603,320)
  • No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,603,320

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Marvin Bagley III (rookie scale)
  • Harrison Barnes (veteran)
  • Justin James (veteran)
  • Delon Wright (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Kings are in a bit of a tight spot financially, with only eight guaranteed deals taking up nearly $100MM in cap space. It’s likely they’ll operate as a team over the cap but under the luxury tax, but that will be impacted by how they approach Holmes’ free agency.

They won’t be able to offer Holmes more than the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception (which is in the same neighborhood as the MLE) unless they open up cap room. It’s easy to envision Holmes drawing offers worth more than the mid-level on the open market, so if the Kings want to keep him following his breakout year, they may need to make a trade to create space.

With backup center Whiteside headed to free agency after a disappointing year, it seems likely that the Kings will guarantee the contracts of Jones and Metu, and 6’7″ wing James played well enough in his minutes to be worth keeping around another year.

Davis will be a big question for the Kings — after a strong rookie year that saw him named to 2020’s All-Rookie Second Team, the shooting guard saw his minutes dip in Toronto and was eventually traded to Sacramento, where he had some of the best games of his career. It’s unlikely that he’s offered a large deal in restricted free agency, making it easier for Sacramento to retain him. If they should do so, the Kings will have to find a way to re-balance their roster, as five of their 11 rostered players would be shooting guards.

Two-way player King only played six games for Sacramento, but scored 7.3 PPG on 36.4% from three in only 14 MPG. At 6’7″ and only 21 years old, he represents an interesting investment if the Kings should decide to sign him to a multiyear, partially guaranteed deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
  • Trade exception: $3,600,000
  • Trade exception: $2,009,019

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Fox’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
  3. James’ salary is expected to become fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  4. Metu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($881,938) after August 9.
  5. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Kings for two seasons, Guy is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  6. The cap hold for Brewer remains on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

June 25th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After trading away Anthony Davis in 2019, the Pelicans moved another longtime standout during the 2020 offseason, sending Jrue Holiday to Milwaukee. While New Orleans’ return in the four-team deal was heavy on draft picks that could pay off down the line, it also included veterans Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe.

The idea was that the Pelicans weren’t giving up on their goal of making the playoffs in 2021 by trading Holiday, since they were getting two productive veterans in the deal — they even extended Adams as part of the trade, locking him up for two extra seasons.

However, instead of helping lead the Pelicans to the playoffs, Adams and Bledsoe struggled to fit in New Orleans. Adams and Zion Williamson weren’t a great match in the frontcourt, and Bledsoe’s efficiency cratered — his .421 FG% and .687 FT% were his worst marks since his rookie year.

Throw in the fact that new head coach Stan Van Gundy wasn’t able to deliver on his promise to turn the Pelicans’ defense around and it’s perhaps no surprise that the team didn’t take a step forward in 2020/21, falling out of play-in contention during the season’s final weeks.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

Van Gundy is gone after just one year, so the first item on the Pelicans’ offseason to-do list will be hiring his replacement. New Orleans is seeking a coach who can better connect with the young players on the roster — veteran assistants like Jacque Vaughn and Charles Lee are among the candidates receiving consideration.

Once the coaching search is over, president of basketball operations David Griffin will face a series of challenging offseason decisions, including the looming restricted free agencies of Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart. Both players are due for substantial raises, potentially creating a cap crunch for the Pelicans, who presumably aren’t eager to pay the luxury tax and would be approaching that threshold if they bring both RFAs back on fair-market deals.

Still, the Pelicans won’t want to lose their solid young players for nothing. Star forwards Williamson and Brandon Ingram have both expressed a desire to continue playing with Ball, in particular, and Hart has reportedly been a strong locker room voice for the young squad.

In order to comfortably re-sign both players and potentially use their mid-level exception, the Pelicans may explore trading Bledsoe and/or Adams to cut costs. Neither player is a positive asset at this point, but neither contract is so onerous that it can’t be moved.

While it’s never ideal for a rebuilding team to surrender draft picks in order to clear unwanted contracts from its cap, the Pelicans are uniquely positioned following their Davis and Holiday mega-deals to sacrifice a pick or two in a salary dump and not be significantly set back by it.

Ideally, they’d deal from their cache of second-round picks (they have four in 2021 alone), but if they need to include a protected first-rounder, the Pelicans should seriously consider giving up a selection previously acquired from the Lakers or Bucks. If they want to get back to the postseason sooner rather than later, it’s worth being aggressive this summer rather than waiting another year or two for those contracts to expire.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall pick ($4,373,160)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 53 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,373,160

Extension-Eligible Players

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Accounting for their nine players on guaranteed contracts, Louzada’s minimum-salary team option, and the cap hold for the No. 10 pick brings the Pelicans’ team salary to $97MM+. It seems safe to assume the club will try to retain at least one of Ball and Hart, if not both, so New Orleans appears likely to operate over the cap.

However, with so many variables in play, it’s tricky to project which exceptions the Pelicans might have access to. Re-signing Ball and Hart without cutting costs elsewhere would likely put team salary at the tax line, limiting the club to the taxpayer mid-level exception. But letting one of those RFAs go – or trading Adams and/or Bledsoe to save some money – could create enough flexibility for New Orleans to use the full mid-level and/or the bi-annual exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $3,897,436

Footnotes

  1. Louzada will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
  2. These are projected values. If the Pelicans are at or near the tax line, they may instead have access to just the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

June 24th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors won a title in 2019, came within one win of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020, and had been a playoff team for seven consecutive seasons entering 2020/21. So it was a bit of a surprise that the club fell off so drastically, winning just 27 games this season after piling up 53 victories in ’19/20.

A number of factors contributed to the Raptors’ plunge down the standings. The team lost Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in free agency and their replacement centers (Aron Baynes and Alex Len) didn’t really work out. The club was hit by injuries and a midseason COVID-19 outbreak. And perhaps most notably, the Raptors played all their home games in Tampa, having been displaced from Toronto by border restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic. Every NBA team was affected by COVID-19, but no other club was subjected to what amounted to a six-month road trip.

It was a disappointing year for a franchise that hadn’t won fewer than 48 games in a season since 2012/13, but with core players like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby locked up long-term, there’s reason to believe Toronto won’t be back in the lottery a year from now.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

The Raptors’ decision not to push too hard for a play-in spot late in the regular season paid off, as the team got some luck on lottery night and secured the No. 4 overall pick. The dream scenario would be two-way big man Evan Mobley falling to Toronto, but Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs would be a fine consolation prize.

President of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster may consider trading up or down, but given how highly those top four prospects are regarded by scouts and draft experts, the safest and easiest play would be to stand pat and select whichever one drops to No. 4.

Speaking of Ujiri, there has still been no word on a potential contract extension for the former Executive of the Year, whose deal with the Raptors expires this summer. But there’s also been little indication that he plans to move on from the franchise. He’s perhaps the Raptors’ most important “free agent” this summer, and signing him to a new long-term deal would be a major win for the organization.

Kyle Lowry also has a claim to the title of Toronto’s most important free agent. One of the greatest players in team history, Lowry has been with the Raptors since 2012, making six All-Star teams during that time and playing a key role on 2019’s championship squad.

Lowry was nearly moved at the trade deadline, but no team was willing to meet Toronto’s asking price. Having failed to acquire any assets for Lowry at that point, the Raptors may feel more compelled this summer to either bring him back on a new contract or work out a sign-and-trade deal with his new team, rather than losing him for nothing. The 35-year-old clearly has an affinity for Toronto, but may want to join a club that’s a little closer to title contention. His free agency will be one of the most interesting cases to watch this offseason.

If they don’t land Mobley in the draft, acquiring a big man via trade or free agency will be high on the Raptors’ list of summer priorities. Depending on what happens with Lowry, the team could have some cap room available to address that issue.

Re-signing RFA-to-be Gary Trent Jr., acquired in a deadline deal with Portland, will also be high on Toronto’s to-do list.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall pick ($7,280,520)
  • No. 46 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,280,520

Extension-Eligible Players

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Depending on whether they bring back Lowry, the Raptors could operate either over or under the cap this summer. Accounting for their four guaranteed contracts and Boucher’s non-guaranteed salary, along with cap holds for Trent and the No. 4 pick, would leave the Raptors with approximately $18MM in cap room, assuming everyone else (including Lowry) is renounced or waived.

My best guess for now is that the Raptors will enter free agency expecting to operate over the cap in order to either re-sign Lowry or get something back in a sign-and-trade for him. But that plan could change quickly if Lowry goes to a team with the cap room to sign him outright — or if the Raps believe the veteran guard will leave and decide their own potential cap space is worth more than his sign-and-trade rights.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 9
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 9
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981

Footnotes

  1. Hood’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 27.
  2. Baynes’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 5.
  3. Boucher’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 8.
  4. Bembry’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 10.
  5. Watanabe’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($375K) after August 9.
  6. Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 6.
  7. The cap holds for these players remain on the Raptors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  8. This is a projected value. Lowry’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service.
  9. These are projected values. If the Raptors decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 23rd, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring D’Angelo Russell at the 2020 trade deadline and using the first overall pick in last fall’s draft to snag Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves entered the 2020/21 campaign expecting to be in the play-in mix.

As was the case in 2019/20 though, Russell and franchise player Karl-Anthony Towns had trouble staying healthy at the same time. Through 50 games, Russell and Towns had appeared on the court together in just four of them. By that point, the Wolves owned a dismal 12-38 record, putting them well out of playoff contention.

There were some encouraging signs during the season’s final weeks. Edwards had a big second half, flashing star potential, and the Wolves were actually pretty competitive when both Russell and Towns were on the court — the team had a 13-11 record in games the duo played. Still, Minnesota will have to take a major step forward in 2021/22 to have a realistic shot at a playoff berth.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan:

Despite finishing near the bottom of the Western Conference standings in each of the last two years, the Timberwolves don’t have much cap flexibility going forward. Towns and Russell are on maximum-salary contracts, while Ricky Rubio, Malik Beasley, and Edwards are all earning eight-figure salaries. That means the team is unlikely to be a real player in free agency.

The Wolves badly need a starting power forward, however, and president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas figures to get creative in his quest to land one this offseason. If free agency isn’t a viable path and the draft isn’t an option (Minnesota doesn’t have its first- or second-round pick), the trade market is the the club’s best bet.

Despite the positive impact Rubio had on a young Wolves squad in 2020/21, he’ll be a trade candidate due to his $17.8MM expiring salary. Jake Layman and Juan Hernangomez, whose contract is only guaranteed for one more year, also have expiring deals that could be useful in trades. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolves are more interested in shopping Beasley, who plays the same position as Edwards and still has $30MM in guaranteed money left on his contract over the next two years.

Although the Wolves had to send the No. 7 overall pick to Golden State to complete the Russell trade, they’re expected to get an infusion of young talent by signing draft-and-stash prospect Leandro Bolmaro, last year’s No. 23 overall pick. And conveying the 2021 first-rounder to the Warriors this season means all of the team’s future first-round picks are freed up for future trades. Rosas has shown a willingness to be aggressive, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s willing to include a first-rounder in a deal for a power forward.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Josh Okogie (rookie scale)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
  • Naz Reid (veteran)
  • Ricky Rubio (veteran)
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Timberwolves’ $127.7MM in guaranteed money puts them well over the projected cap. They’ll move closer to the projected tax line ($136.6MM) by guaranteeing Nowell’s and Reid’s salaries and by signing Bolmaro to his rookie contract.

While I expect Minnesota to explore moves that cut costs, it looks for the time being as if the team may forgo the full mid-level exception or the bi-annual exception — using either would hard-cap the Wolves at the tax apron, which figures to be in the neighborhood of $143MM, significantly hampering the team’s flexibility.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Reid’s salary becomes fully guaranteed in mid-to-late August (exact date TBD).
  2. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Timberwolves for two seasons, McLaughlin is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  3. The cap holds for Turner and Brooks remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Timberwolves move further below the tax line, they could gain access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 22nd, 2021 at 2:50pm CST by Luke Adams

The Cavaliers‘ 2020/21 season looked pretty similar to most of the team’s LeBron James-less seasons over the last two decades. After remaining in the play-in hunt during the first half, Cleveland went into a tailspin to finish the year — the team lost 23 of its final 28 games and ended up with a 22-50 record, tied for the fourth-work mark in the NBA.

The Cavs have had no shortage of lottery luck over the years, winning the No. 1 pick in 2003, 2011, 2013, and 2014. But the team hasn’t picked in the top four since its latest rebuild began, and as a result hasn’t landed a clear-cut franchise player to build around.

There are reasons to be optimistic about the backcourt duo of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, both of whom have made significant positive strides since entering the league, but neither player is a great defender or a lock to be a future All-Star. Isaac Okoro, meanwhile, is already a strong wing defender, but will need to show more on offense than he did as a rookie in order to become a reliable starter.

Inserting themselves into the four-team James Harden deal in order to land on Jarrett Allen was a nice move by the Cavs, adding a young center to the existing core. Getting back into the playoff mix in the East will likely require the team to make a few more savvy moves like that one.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan:

Tonight’s lottery will be big for the Cavs, who will be looking to recapture some of the magic that helped them land the top pick so often in the past. With some luck, they could be in position to nab a future star like Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, or even Cade Cunningham. Even if they fall out of the top five, drafting a forward like Scottie Barnes wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize.

Following the draft, the Cavs figure to explore the free agent market for a veteran ball-handler who could be signed with the mid-level exception. Cleveland may also be active on the trade market, with Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman among those who could be shopped. And a trade or buyout are in play for Kevin Love. However, the team’s top priority this summer may be negotiating a pair of contracts with its own players.

First and foremost, Allen will be a restricted free agent, and after surrendering a first-round pick for him, the Cavs will want to make sure he’s locked up long-term. The size of Allen’s payday may ultimately hinge on whether another team makes a push to sign him to an offer sheet, which would increase his value, but he’ll likely be in line for a salary of at least $15-20MM per year either way.

One wild card in the Allen contract talks would be a scenario where the Cavs draft Mobley. Doing so wouldn’t make Cleveland decide to let Allen walk, but it would reduce his leverage, given the positional overlap between the two players.

The Cavs’ other big contract negotiation will be with Sexton, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension before the 2021/22 season begins. Given his ascendant offensive game – he averaged 24.3 points per game in 2020/21 – Sexton will likely be seeking the max or something close to it. The club figures to have some reservations about that sort of investment, given the guard’s defensive shortcomings and his limited ability to facilitate for teammates. The Cavs have been better with him off the court than on it in each of his three seasons to date.

As is the case with Allen and Mobley, if the Cavs end up drafting a guard like Cunningham or Suggs, it may diminish their enthusiasm to rush into a lucrative long-term deal with Sexton.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall pick ($8,075,160)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Collin Sexton (rookie scale)
  • Kevin Love (veteran)
  • Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
  • Cedi Osman (veteran)
  • Taurean Prince (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Although the Cavaliers have a little less than $87MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2021/22 at the moment, the cap holds for Allen and the No. 3 overall pick will push them well over the $100MM threshold. That will make it an easy choice to operate as an over-the-cap team unless the club makes a cost-cutting move or two.

Even after accounting for new deals for Allen and possibly Hartenstein, the Cavs should have plenty of breathing room below the luxury-tax line, so they could make use of their full mid-level exception this offseason.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $4,200,000
  • Trade exception: $1,717,981

Footnotes

  1. Hartenstein will be eligible for restricted free agency if he opts out.
  2. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 19th, 2021 at 4:02pm CST by Eli Cohen

With the offseason trades of Chris Paul and Dennis Schröder last fall, the Thunder officially transitioned from playoff contention to full-scale rebuild.

The team added four first-round picks and multiple second-round picks through deals for Paul, Kelly Oubre (acquired from the Suns in the Paul trade), Danny Green (acquired in the Schröder trade), and other maneuvers, while adding one of the highest-upside rookies in the draft class, the very raw Aleksej Pokusevski, along with solid second round pick Theo Maledon.

An injury limited star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 35 games, while last season’s breakout rookie Luguentz Dort was also in and out of the lineup due to injury. Finally, the team made the decision to bench Al Horford for the second half of the season to allow the young players more minutes and opportunity.

All these factors contributed to the Thunder having their worst year since the 2008/09 season, when they went 23-59 and were rewarded with the third pick, which they used to draft James Harden. The Thunder will hope for similar lottery luck this summer.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

After making a surprise move to trade Horford, former undrafted center Moses Brown, and a 2023 second-round pick for Kemba Walker, the 16th pick in this year’s draft, and a 2025 second round pick, the Thunder are in an unparalleled position to make a trade, either for a disgruntled young star, or to move up in this year’s draft.

They have five picks in the top 36 of this year’s draft, including three top-2o selections, and have 18 total first round picks over the next six years. They also will be able to swap the 18th pick for the Rockets’ pick this year if it drops out of the top four (there’s about a 48% chance this will happen). Their own pick has a 45% chance of landing in the top four. It’s unlikely the Thunder will use all six of their picks in this year’s draft, making them a prime candidate to make more trades.

Walker, the lone veteran on the roster, stands as a clear target to be moved, either in a draft-day trade or as part of a separate deal in free agency. Walker is owed nearly $74MM over the next two years, assuming he picks up his 2022/23 player option, but he can still be a dangerous scorer and play-maker, despite a down year.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($5,988,000)
  • No. 16 overall pick ($3,2146,80)
  • No. 18 overall pick ($2,901,240)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,103,920

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rookie scale)
  • Isaiah Roby (veteran)
  • Kemba Walker (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Thunder have the flexibility to go in a number of different directions this offseason, but the most likely outcome – at least to start the offseason – is that they operate as an above-the-cap team in order to retain their many trade player exceptions, as well as the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

Williams, Roby and Deck all played well for the Thunder this season and seem likely to have their contracts guaranteed. The cap hold for the Thunder’s first first round pick is likely to be in $5.5MM-$8.3MM range. If the Thunder want to use cap space to throw a lucrative offer at a restricted free agent, they will have to renounce their exceptions.

Much of their cap situation will revolve around whether they’re able to unload Walker’s money to a team that needs a point guard — the Knicks stand out as one team with a need at the position and the cap space to absorb him without needing to send major money back to OKC.

The other big question facing the Thunder is if they can come to terms with Gilgeous-Alexander on a max rookie scale extension. If so, he’ll likely command a five-year, maximum-salary contract that would pay him a projected $167MM+ and would run until the 2026/27 season.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
  • Trade exception: $27,528,088
  • Trade exception: $12,800,000
  • Trade exception: $10,100,000
  • Trade exception: $9,590,602
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $908,960
  • Trade exception: $865,853
  • Trade exception: $850,600
  • Trade exception: $332,940

Footnotes

  1. Roby’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 4.
  2. The cap holds for these players remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Thunder use cap room, they’d renounce these exceptions and their TPEs and would only have the room exception ($4.9MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2021 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

Losing Jonathan Isaac to a torn ACL during last summer’s restart at Walt Disney World set the Magic back in a major way for the 2020/21 season, but the team still entered the year hoping to make the postseason for a third straight time. That wasn’t in the cards, however, as another ACL tear – this time for Markelle Fultz – and a handful of lesser injuries set Orlando back even further.

After a solid 6-2 start, the Magic cratered, falling to 13-27 by mid-March. That was around the time that top basketball executives Jeff Weltman and John Hammond decided a full-fledged teardown was in the franchise’s best long-term interests.

Nikola Vucevic? Gone. Aaron Gordon? Gone. Evan Fournier? Also gone. By the time the dust settled, the Magic were left with a few extra future first-round picks and an intriguing group of young players, with Isaac, Fultz, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, and Mohamed Bamba joined by Wendell Carter and R.J. Hampton.

After the last retooling of the roster culminated in nothing more than a middle-of-the-pack squad, Magic fans may feel a bit discouraged to see their team start building from the ground up again. But Weltman, the team’s president of basketball operations, is optimistic about the outlook in Orlando. He told reporters last month that, since joining the organization, he’s never felt more excited about its future than he does right now.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

The Magic’s previous rebuild stalled out in part because the club either whiffed on some top picks (like Mario Hezonja) or failed to properly develop them and ultimately sold low (like Victor Oladipo).

No team has better odds than Orlando to land a top-four pick in this year’s draft, so the club is in a great position to secure a long-term cornerstone piece, and it’s important to get that pick right. If the Magic receive the Bulls’ top-four protected pick this year (it has better than 70% odds to land at No. 8 or No. 9), nailing that second lottery selection would a big step forward for the rebuild as well.

Otherwise, the Magic’s offseason could look a lot like that of the Rockets and Pistons — like those teams, Orlando doesn’t have much cap flexibility yet and shouldn’t be a major player in free agency, but could be more active on the trade market.

Gary Harris‘ $20MM expiring contract isn’t necessarily a net positive, but Harris remains a useful role player and that cap number isn’t too onerous to move — the Magic could probably get a modest asset in exchange for him if they’re willing to take on multiyear money in return.

Terrence Ross, who has two years and $23MM left on his deal, is the more attractive trade chip, since there will be no shortage of teams looking to add outside shooting at a reasonable price. While his dip in three-point percentage in 2020/21 (33.7%) may hurt his value, getting a first-round pick in a deal for Ross isn’t entirely out of the question, especially if Orlando takes an unwanted contract back for him.

Michael Carter-Williams, on an expiring $3.3MM contract, could be a trade chip as well, though the Magic might want to keep him around as a veteran mentor for Fultz.

It’s also worth noting that Carter and Bamba will be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. I could see the Magic trying to work something out with Carter, like they did a year ago with Isaac and Fultz, but Bamba will probably have to show more next season to earn a second contract from the team.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($6,593,040)
  • No. 8 overall pick ($5,007,840)
  • No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,600,880

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mohamed Bamba (rookie scale)
  • Wendell Carter (rookie scale)
  • Gary Harris (veteran)
  • Terrence Ross (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Although the Magic only have about $94MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for the time being and aren’t assured of bringing back any of their free agents, various cap holds and exceptions will likely push them over the cap.

The team’s two top-eight draft picks, for instance, have a combined cap hold of over $11.5MM. The team also had a trade exception worth $17MM+ that it won’t forfeit just to claim a small piece of cap space.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5
  • Trade exception: $17,150,000
  • Trade exception: $4,272,060
  • Trade exception: $2,000,000

Footnotes

  1. Bacon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
  2. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Randle is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  3. This is a projected value. Porter’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 7-9 years of NBA service.
  4. The cap holds for Afflalo and Speights remain on the Magic’s books from a prior season because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

June 16th, 2021 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

When Troy Weaver took the reins as the Pistons‘ general manager in 2020, fans and observers were a little caught off guard by his initial series of roster moves.

The rebuilding Pistons signed non-star veteran free agents like Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee to multiyear contracts; acquired players like Dewayne Dedmon and Zhaire Smith, only to waive-and-stretch them; and gave up nearly all of their future second-round picks along with Luke Kennard and Bruce Brown in order to land a third first-round pick in the draft.

Weaver’s unorthodox approach to rebuilding – or, as he calls it, “restoring” – didn’t exactly pay immediate dividends, as the Pistons’ 20-52 record was the worst in the Eastern Conference. But the Pistons’ crop of rookies – Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Bey, and Saben Lee – had promising seasons, Grant thrived in an increased role, and Plumlee proved to be a worthwhile investment.

It may still be a couple years before the Pistons are back in the postseason, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the club’s future.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan:

The 2021 NBA draft is widely considered to have a top tier of five players, and there’s approximately an 80% chance the Pistons will secure a top-five pick, putting the team in position to select Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, or Jonathan Kuminga.

Drafting any of those players would be a great start to the offseason for Weaver and company. Landing at No. 6 would be a setback, but would still give Detroit a chance to add a promising prospect to its young core.

The dead money that the Blake Griffin buyout left on the Pistons’ books for 2021/22 will hinder the team from opening up a ton of cap room. But as we saw last fall, Weaver won’t hesitate to take some chances and make the most of what little space the team does have.

Still, I wouldn’t expect the Pistons to be quite as active or aggressive as they were a year ago, when they were involved in seven offseason trades and handed out multiple long-term contracts in free agency. Weaver will certainly continue working to reshape the roster to meet his vision, but I’d be surprised if the Pistons’ lottery pick isn’t the team’s most noteworthy roster addition this summer.

Detroit’s figures to focus on finding under-the-radar value and perhaps even using its limited cap room to accommodate a salary-dump trade that helps replenish the team’s collection of second-round picks. Then, the priority will be player development — the organization has already brought in John Beilein and is overhauling Dwane Casey‘s coaching staff with that goal in mind.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 1 overall pick ($10,050,120)
  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold) 5
  • No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Cory Joseph (veteran)
  • Rodney McGruder (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Pistons have $88MM in guaranteed money on their books and will retain Diallo’s $2MM cap hold as they look to work out a new deal with him. That puts the team in position to operate either over or under the cap, depending in large part on whether they want to bring back Joseph. The cap hold for their first-round pick will also be a factor — it could be worth $10MM+ if it’s the No. 1 pick or less than $6MM if it’s No. 6.

My best guess for now is that the Pistons will waive Joseph before his salary becomes fully guaranteed and perhaps stretch his partial guarantee across three years, maximizing their flexibility in 2021. That could leave the team with $15MM+ in potential cap space. But again, if Detroit lands the first overall pick and/or really wants to keep Joseph around, operating over the cap – and having the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available – is another viable path for the team.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Joseph’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  2. McGruder’s salary becomes fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  3. Cook’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 10.
  4. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Jackson is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  5. This pick could move up to No. 41 if San Antonio’s first-round pick moves ahead of Charlotte’s in the lottery.
  6. This is a projected value. If the Pistons operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM), bi-annual exception ($3.7MM), and a trade exception ($2MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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